Monday 9/13/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-13-2021, 04:40 AM

Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

September 13, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
Woodbine Mohawk Park starts the week with an 11-race card. The headliner comes in Race 8, a Preferred Handicap trot with a $34,000 purse. The feature starts the 0.20 Late Pick 4, and that sequence will be my focus.

Comments and sections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8

8-Warrawee Roo (4-1)-This veteran is in fine form taking 3 straight pictures. Beat this kind last week and rolled down the lane to win easily in the 1st start on Lasix. His stablemate below wasn't in the field and appears to be the biggest obstacle to prevent another picture.
9-Forbidden Trade (2-1)-Tried to wire the field in the Maple Leaf Trot and it almost worked out. This time the plan will probably be the same but his chances for success are much better.

Race 9

7-Real Good Tan (7/2)-This will be the 3rd race after requalifying because of suffering breaks and showed some ability in both starts. Now McNair will be in the bike and a more aggressive drive could be coming.
8-Moneyworth (3-1)-Similar profile to #7 and my take is the price will be better than the morning line. Was moving forward in last so, tonight might be the time for Young to get a better seat and be in striking range at the top of the lane.
9-Clockwork Orange (5/2)-Has been facing tough foes and should relish the company. But this post might be cause for concern because Jamieson has been leaving without success albeit versus better. Using but will look to others who will have more value.

Race 10

3-The Prince (5/2)-It's best to not look past this consistent gelding who has hit the board in 7 of 9 with 4 wins and 3 seconds. Winner of 2 straight should be a player again.
9-Sweet Soul David (3-1)-Kadabra 3-year-old is also the model of consistency and from the inside would be an odds-on choice. Could still go off as the chalk because Roy can fire him up off the gate and looks like the one to beat.

Race 11

5-Deja Vu Seelster (8-1)-Won and then came back quickly trying to pick-up another win at the same condition but faded down the lane. Moves up but fits with this crew and McNair takes the lines. Draws well again and will look for a big try at a solid price.
7-Tugginoncredit (6-1)-Tried to get on the engine from the same post in last but the 26.4 opening quarter took its toll. Comes right back in sequence for the 2nd straight start which hasn't happened in a while. Looking for Roy to work a sharp steer at a nice price.
8-Rockinwithcustard (7/2)-Henry provided a sharp steer to capture a win in the 2nd start for the Barrington barn. Best to not discount a similar effort from the same post.

0.20 Late Pick 4

8,9/7,8,9/3,9/5,7,8
Total Bet=$7.20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-13-2021, 04:41 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #5

#3 Center Mid Maddie	He has run a couple of good ones to open his career, including a good score last time out. Pressing pace should be able to land another perfect trip with these.
#6 Dr. Steve	He rolled a group of statebred maidens at Parx in the debut run, but he was up on the splits over sloppy going that day, so I'm not totally sold that he's going to bring a similarly massive effort in his first local try. The rest run for second if he does, though.
#7 Backdoorparty	He turned in a decent rally behind the top choice when they met last time out, but he'll need to step forward in this second lifetime start to turn the tables on that one.
Race Summary	Center Mid Maddie figures to be second choice in here, and his main danger owns a front-end romp in the slop, so I'm not sure I'm willing to take Dr. Steve's debut at face value.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6

#8 Lowcountry	He steps up off the claim for this one, but he's protected for it and brings decent recent form with cheaper. He might trip out from close range from this wide draw. Chance.
#5 The Programmer	Tough to argue with his form since adding blinkers, and he should be able to find another perfect pressing trip with these. Respect him as he aims for a third in a row.
#2 English Laughter	He has proven a decent fit since stepping up to this level, but he doesn't always find a whole lot left late, so he could be vulnerable in the final yards. Underneath.
Race Summary	Lowcountry will have to class up with these for the new barn, but the form is there to be competitive while tracking the splits early. Mid-range price chance.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#3 Isthatyourharley	Finisher gets blinkers for the first time, and she might offer a playable price with a couple of others showing up with Saratoga running lines.
#7 Morning Matcha	Maiden has been heading the right way through three starts, and she caught a tough winner in a fast maiden race last out. Dangerous if she likes it here.
#4 You Look Cold	She was sharp in her maiden win before finishing up the track with stakes company, but she lands in an easier spot today while trying the local footing for the first time. In the mix.
Race Summary	Isthatyourharley gets tested for class while adding blinkers, and the two who figure to take cash have questions to answer over the local surface.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-13-2021, 04:45 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Indiana Grand - Race #2

#4 Kingoftherainbow	Set the pace and tired late last time in his first start on turf as well as his first around two turns; can improve off that effort.
#2 Nates Hearthrob	Even-money on the morning line after two straight seconds; looked like a winner and got caught last out. Hard to take even-money or even less on a 1-17 runner, but he's definitely in the mix.
#5 Cielo Blu	Won the last time he was two turns -- three races back when he broke his maiden; sprinted in his last two and could benefit from get back to a longer distance.
Race Summary	Kingoftherainbow had a couple of 'firsts' regarding surface and distance and likely will be tough this go-round.

Indiana Grand - Race #5

#6 Dance Recital	Will be following a decent pace and will be able to make a strong late run; one to hold off.
#8 Zoikes	Was up in time for a maiden win in her first local start after racing for Chad Brown in Kentucky and New York; sharp in her first for Walsh and can be tough again.
#10 Fireside Kitten	Rallied steadily and just missed while third last out; runs back at the same level and looks like a serious factor.
Race Summary	Dance Recital will be far off the pace but should be able to make a sweeping move vs. these.

Indiana Grand - Race #9

#4 Epimythium	Has run well in strong races and most recently was second at Kentucky Downs; can be a forward factor and should have something left for the drive.
#1 Wildcard Prado	Has been in perfect pace scenarios as he has been close to pedestrian clips; has won three straight but has had some really good trips. Moves over to the turf for this one.
#5 Bizerk	Goes for his third straight win and wired a field at this level last out; veteran is tough over this course.
Race Summary	Epimythium is able to take his game with him as he travels around the region; in good form and comes in off an impressive win over good company.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-13-2021, 07:36 AM

The Prez

Event: (953) St. Louis Cardinals at (954) New York Mets

Sport/League: MLB

Date/Time: September 13, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: New York Mets -115 A Wainwright (RHP), R Hill (LHP) Must Start
953 St Louis Cardinals at 954 New York Mets -120, 8.5
On Monday night, the St. Louis Cardinals are in the Big Apple for the first of a three-game set against the host New York Mets. Adam Wainwright (15-7, 2.98 ERA) will take the mound for the Cardinals and oppose the Mets' Rich Hill (6-6, 3.82)
The Cardinals (73-69) are still a part of the National League Wild Card chase. However, entering this series against the Mets, they are currently 1.5 games out of the second wild card slot behind the San Diego Padres and Cincinnati Reds. The Mets are one game below .500 at 71-72, resting four games out of that second postseason spot.
As good as Wainwright has been this season, New York's southpaw Hill has handled the Cardinals lineup in recent meetings and across his career. The Cards' bats are slashing a mere .208/.292/.275 versus Hill in his long MLB career, and he and his New York teammates continue that trend and earn the victory in the first of three at Citi Field. Free Pick is a play on Hill and the Mets as small home chalk.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-13-2021, 07:42 AM

Ralph Michaels

Event: (965) Boston Red Sox at (966) Seattle Mariners
Sport/League: MLB

Date/Time: September 13, 2021 10PM EDT
Play: Total Under 8.0 (-110) E Rodriguez (LHP), L Gilbert (RHP) Must Start

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-13-2021, 07:43 AM

Jay McNeil

Monday comp play will be the Ravens and Raiders to land Over the total.

I am aware that the Ravens ended last season by playing their final 4 games Under the total, but I am also aware that the Raiders could not stop anybody from scoring on them at the end of last season as each of Vegas' last 5 games and 7 of their last 9 overall landed Over the total.

Baltimore is thin in the backfield due to preseason injuries, but I still feel they will be able to generate points with the electric Lamar Jackson working against a defense that had major issues last season.

Conversely, it is very important for Vegas to get something positive going early on this season under Jon Gruden, and with this being their first game with fans allowed into their new stadium, I like the Raiders to show some pop on offense.

In the end I think we are looking at a game that see about 55 combined points.

1* BALTIMORE-VEGAS OVER

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-13-2021, 10:27 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Assiniboia Downs

Assiniboia Downs - Race 4	$1 PICK 4 (50K Guarantee) (Races 4-5-6-7) / .20 PICK 3 (Races 4-5-6) .20 SUPERFECTA / .20 TRIACTOR / EXACTOR / QUINELLA
Claiming $7,500 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $13,400 • Post: 9:05P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 13 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Stalker. WITT'S TENNY TEN is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * GOLD DIGGIN DARLIN: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. MEDIA MENDACITY: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(spr int or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. WITT'S TENNY TEN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. FAT N BITTER: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. STORM STRIDE: Horse has run a Good Rac e within the last 30 days.
2	GOLD DIGGIN DARLIN	9/5	5/1
5	MEDIA MENDACITY	5/2	5/1
4	WITT'S TENNY TEN	3/1	6/1
3	FAT N BITTER	5/1	7/1
1	STORM STRIDE	6/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	GOLD DIGGIN DARLIN	2	9/5	Front-runner	79	66	81.0	66.8	62.8
3	FAT N BITTER	3	5/1	Front-runner	80	66	70.8	58.8	52.3
4	WITT'S TENNY TEN	4	3/1	Stalker	72	75	90.2	59.0	51.5
5	MEDIA MENDACITY	5	5/2	Trailer	72	76	62.4	68.6	65.1
1	STORM STRIDE	1	6/1	Trailer	79	66	43.4	63.0	55.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-13-2021, 10:31 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes

Finger Lakes - Race 2	EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum) * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 2-3) * Pick 3 (50 Cent Minimum: Races 2-3-4)
Maiden Claiming $11,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 61 • Purse: $16,000 • Post: 1:39P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $11,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $9,000 2 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. FASTELLE is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FASTELLE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
5	FASTELLE	3/2	6/5

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	FASTELLE	5	3/2	Front-runner	67	61	58.2	42.2	39.7
1	PALS SARATOGA GAL	1	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	44.6	39.4	33.4
2	RED PRIESTESS	2	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	39.9	39.3	34.8
3	DESERT TONE	3	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	47	46	35.3	32.4	24.4
6	SAW	6	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	35.1	20.9	12.4

Unknown Running Style: CURL TALK (3/1) [Jockey: De Diego Emanuel - Trainer: Green Shelly].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-13-2021, 10:32 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Delaware Park - Race #6 - Post: 3:45pm - SO - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $32,000 Class Rating: 103

Rating:

#2 SUPER DUDE (ML=5/1)
#3 CONFESSOR (ML=5/2)
#1 SHOO SHINE (ML=7/2)
#4 COAL TRUTH (ML=9/2)

SUPER DUDE - This gelding is in the top spot in earnings per start. Check out this animal in the saddling enclosure. Have to make this gelding a strong challenger; he comes off a good race on August 16th. CONFESSOR - This gelding is in fine form. Ended up first on August 25th. Everybody's got their favorite tracks, but if you ask this thoroughbred, I think his answer would be Delaware Park. SHOO SHINE - I really like that last effort on August 28th at Monmouth Park where he finished first. The return on investment when Castillo and Dini get together is out of sight. This thoroughbred has done very well at this distance. A little change in scenery has got to do this horse well. Reading the PPs, it seems like he likes to visit the winner's circle on different ovals. COAL TRUTH - Compton has this gelding spotted in the perfect race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 ASPECT (ML=6/1), #8 RED AGAIN (ML=8/1),

ASPECT - 6/1 odds isn't enough for this horse when looking at the most recent showings. RED AGAIN - This gelding earned a speed figure in his last clash which probably isn't good enough in today's race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #2 SUPER DUDE on the win end if we get at least 9/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-13-2021, 10:44 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Presque Isle Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 73

FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD OR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 13 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 CYBERBURG 3/1
# 1 TRANS MISSISSIPPI 6/1
# 6 PUFFER FISH 5/2

CYBERBURG has a formidable shot to take this race. Garnered a respectable speed fig last time out. Should be used in the exotic wagers. TRANS MISSISSIPPI - Is hard not to look at given the company run in recently. Has strong speed figs and has to be considered for a bet in this event. PUFFER FISH - I can't pass on this mare given one of the most favorable jockey and conditioner combos on the grounds. Rice has this mare travelling well and is a formidable selection based on the quite good speed figures earned in sprint races as of late.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-13-2021, 10:46 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Prairie Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $15500 Class Rating: 80

FOR THREE YEAR OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 13, 2021 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. IOWA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $30,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 HOWMUCHISTOOMUCH 10/1
# 1 SIR DEPUTY 9/5
# 5 THROWN FOR A LOUPE 2/1

HOWMUCHISTOOMUCH is the best bet in this outing especially at 10/1. Have to examine solely on class, with some of the top class figures of this group of horses in this race. Decent choice to take this race going in a dirt sprint. Have to bet on this filly with the solid earnings per start in dirt sprint races. SIR DEPUTY - Must be carefully examined in here if only for the very strong speed figure posted in the last race. Is a very solid contender based on figures garnered lately under today's conditions. THROWN FOR A LOUPE - Will make a strong outing versus this field. Has been racing solidly and has among the most favorable speed in the race for today's distance.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-13-2021, 12:09 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Louisiana Downs - Race #3 - Post: 3:37pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $11,500 Class Rating: 45

Rating:

#3 EM'S MISS PRADO (ML=7/2)

EM'S MISS PRADO - This horse has recorded the best recent turf speed rating at the distance-surface. I do like the fact this filly is back in a race so quickly. I'm focusing on the class of this horse, and this one is the 'classiest' of the bunch. Just see her latest fig, 53. That one looks good in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 RECKLESS SERGEANT (ML=5/2), #2 ARMED MISSILE (ML=3/1), #4 TRACK QUEEN (ML=6/1),

RECKLESS SERGEANT - Tough to wager on this pony in today's event. Make her show you something in a short distance event before you bet on her in a race of 7 1/2 furlongs. ARMED MISSILE - Difficult to play any steed in a sprint event if she hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last 60 days. When examining today's class rating, she will have to garner a better speed rating than in the last race to battle in this turf sprint. TRACK QUEEN - Doubtful that this runner can get it done in this sprint after displaying no early speed in that last route event. No early speed in this affair to help this rallier's hopes.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - EM'S MISS PRADO - You got to like this racer against this competition. She has the top turf number off her last race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #3 EM'S MISS PRADO to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	3 with [6,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-13-2021, 12:12 PM

Free Winners for Monday, September 13th 2021 from THE LEGEND!
FREE HORSE PICKS
FINGER LAKES
RACE #7
TIME: 4:04 PM EST
PICK: BET #3 Iova 7/2 odds to win @ Bovada

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-13-2021, 03:41 PM

Monday Myths: Draw a Line Through Kentucky Downs Defeats?

September 13, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Kentucky Downs is such a unique course that you can excuse a disappointing race from there more easily than most venues.

Background:

While only 6 days in length, September’s Kentucky Downs meeting annually features huge-field turf racing over an up-and-down course unlike any other in North America. It’s one of the most horse-for-course venues you’ll find – a love/hate relationship in the ledger of many horses. The 2021 KD meet concluded Sunday and now those alumni will be heading to ports of call at Churchill, Keeneland and around the country. Do the numbers justify drawing a line through a disappointing Kentucky Downs effort and playing the rebound?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at the next-out performances for well-backed Kentucky Downs runners whom were defeated over the unique course. I looked at the past 5 years, going back to return races starting Sept. 13, 2016. By well-backed, we categories runners as the post-time favorites, those 3-1 or less and those 5-1 or less odds.

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Kentucky Downs’ beaten favorites in their next starts won 26% with a $1.08 ROI for every $1 bet.
All beaten favorites in their next starts won 21% with a $0.81 ROI for every $1 bet.

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3-1 or less Kentucky Downs beaten runners in their next starts won 23% with a $1.17 ROI for every $1 bet.
3-1 or less All beaten runners in their next starts won 20% with a $0.77 ROI for every $1 bet.

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5-1 or less Kentucky Downs beaten runners in their next starts won 18% with a $0.89 ROI for every $1 bet.
5-1 or less All beaten runners in their next starts won 18% with a $0.76 ROI for every $1 bet.

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Overall Findings:

Kentucky Downs alumni returned to win at a higher rate and more profitable ROI than the general population when studied as well-backed favorites, 3-1 or less and 5-1 or less odds. The more heavily bet the horse was last out at Kentucky Downs, the better the next-out win percentage and the more significant difference in next-out results compared to the general population.

Bottom line:

This one clearly is fact based on the last 5-year numbers. A horse who loses at a short price at Kentucky Downs can be excused for the effort and bet back with profitable consequences.

Additional Details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, take a look at next-out surfaces and locales for the best success. It’s interesting that turf-to-dirt movers who were well-bet at Kentucky Downs actually out-performed their turf-to-turf contemporaries. From a locale standpoint, those KD beaten favorites who reappear next at Fair Grounds have gone 6: 3-2-0 in limited, but highly effective strikes.