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Both of these non-conference opponents are coming off season opening wins. Kansas edged South Dakota 17-14, although they failed to cover as 11.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Coastal Carolina crushed Citadel 52-14, covering as 33.5-point home favorites. This matchup opened with Coastal listed as a 27-point home favorite. The public expects a blowout and is happily laying the points with Coastal at home. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen Coastal fall from -27 to -26.5. This signals some wiseguy action on Kansas getting big points. The Jayhawks have value as a contrarian play in a heavily bet primetime game and a buy-low unranked road dog against a ranked opponent. Over the past decade, unranked road dogs vs ranked opponents on Friday nights are 38-27 ATS (58.5%). We could also be looking at a lower-scoring game. This total opened at 53 and has fallen to 52.5 despite the public hammering the over. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the under. Correlative betting provides value to a big dog in a low total game.
9:30 p.m. ET: UTEP (2-0) at Boise State (0-1)
UTEP already has a pair of wins under their belt, beating New Mexico State 30-3 as 9.5-point road favorites and then taking down Bethune Cookman 38-28 last week, although they failed to cover as 20.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Boise State is looking to bounce back from a season opening loss to Central Florida 36-31, although they covered as 6.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Boise State listed as a big 27-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know whether to take the points or lay them. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the tickets are even. But we've seen Boise Fall from -27 to -26. This indicates some sharp money grabbing undefeated UTEP plus the points (+ 27 to + 26). We've also seen some over money show up, forcing oddsmakers to adjust the total up from 55 to 56.5.
KANSAS @ C. CAROLINA | 09/10 | 7:30 PM EDT
OVER 52
ANALYSIS: I don't have a huge opinion on the spread here, but I can't find a model that has this finishing with fewer than 55 points scored. SportsLine's has 58. Presumably, CCU gets out to a huge lead and runs prevent defense all night. These teams combined for 61 in Lawrence a year ago. The Chants should score 36 minimum. Can KU hit 17? I think so.
KANSAS @ C. CAROLINA | 09/10 | 7:30 PM EDT
C. CAROLINA -26.5
ANALYSIS: We have a Kansas squad that comes in at 1-0 after going 0-9 last season against a Coastal Carolina squad that went 11-1 last season. One of those wins was 38-2 at Kansas in the opener as a 6-point underdog. I see this matchup as a stage for Coastal QB Grayson McCall to pile up stats that will put him into the Heisman discussion. Take Coastal Carolina to win in a blowout.
+160 6-4 IN LAST 10 CFB ATS PICKS
1:26 PM
MILWAUKEE @ CLEVELAND | 09/10 | 7:10 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -140
ANALYSIS: The Brewers have won two straight and have Adrian Houser on the mound. They are 15-7 when he starts, including 11-2 in his last 13. The Brewers are better on the road in almost every statistical category, beginning with a 46-24 road record. The Indians are 2-4 in Eli Morgan’s last six starts. Brewers to win.
+1023 74-56-1 IN LAST 131 MLB PICKS
+532 5-1 IN LAST 6 MIL ML PICKS
+71 8-5 IN LAST 13 CLE ML PICKS
12:50 PM
KANSAS @ C. CAROLINA | 09/10 | 7:30 PM EDT
KANSAS +26.5
ANALYSIS: Stop for a moment to let this line sink in: A Power Five school is spotted nearly four touchdowns by a Group of Five foe. No doubt Coastal is superior, as the Jayhawks know all too well. Surely they regret scheduling this series with the Chanticleers, having lost to them the past two seasons. And KU was lucky to elude South Dakota of the FCS, 17-14, last week. On the semi-bright side, it was the Jayhawks’ first outright win in 14 tries, so some pressure was lifted. If they get blown out, the Big 12 should revoke the Jayhawks’ membership.
+160 6-4-1 IN LAST 11 CFB PICKS
+191 3-1 IN LAST 4 KANSAS ATS PICKS
3:10 PM
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