Thursday 9/16/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-16-2021, 07:14 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Arlington - Race #5

#4 Paddy's House	Like the way he has taken to the grass in a couple of recent starts, and something similar to his last keeps him in the mix here -- big chance to sustain that move better today.
#5 Ioya Again	He makes plenty of sense from off the pace, but he has settled for a lot of shares, including three straight runner-up finishes. Capable player can be beaten.
#1 Empty Holster	There isn't much to get excited about here, but he's definitely better than he showed last time out, and he has a price chance to boost the gimmicks.
Race Summary	Paddy's House has moved up since switching to turf routes, and he can easily turn the tables on Ioya Again after finishing a length behind that guy last time out.

Arlington - Race #7

#5 Storm's Reflection	He should offer a nice price with a group that doesn't feel very imposing, and there is enough pedigree to get this guy around two turns if he doesn't get caught up on a quick pace. Doesn't hurt that Sophie Doyle has been one of the more reliable turf route riders here this season.
#10 Mulsanne	Maybe he sits a bit closer today with the blinkers on for the first time, and he proved a good fit with the local company last out. That said, he's a player with no really obvious upside at this point in time, and he probably gets bet a bit.
#3 Rocket Hotshot	This barn occasionally gets a two-turn turfer in the mix at a price over the local lawn, so he may be worth including in the underneath spots in hopes he'll pass enough tired ones late.
Race Summary	Storm's Reflection is a swing while getting a rider upgrade for this one, and it looks like he may be fast enough to control the tempo out of the gate. Interesting enough right up on the engine for Sophie if he's double digits.

Arlington - Race #8

#4 Midnight Blue Note	Some of these might be capable of something just a bit better than him, but he's a reliable type who loves this turf course, and he looks likely enough to hold form and handle these.
#10 Royal Commish	Toyed with putting this one on top, as he has a high enough ceiling to be a factor with these at a price if he brings his best game from off the pace. Could see him drafting into a decent spot.
#1 Kennesaw	He's fast enough to be on the splits early, but he could get a tricky kind of trip from the rail draw with a couple of other forward players lined up here. Capable, but I'm not willing to take too short a price from this draw while stepping out of 3yo company to face a much deeper group of older horses today.
Race Summary	Midnight Blue Note almost always shows up over the local footing, and he might be the right kind of key horse in a competitive race. I'll also try to get Royal Commish in the frame with a few of the logical horses.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-16-2021, 07:15 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

The Meadows - Race #3

#6 TAMAR	Hit best stride here in August, projects good trip in bid for 25th win.
#2 PERFECT CHAPTER AS	Northfield invader runs late, must stay flat.
#1 LINDY'S BIG BANG	Trotted evenly on class rise to this level after second-tier victory.
Race Summary	All but two of the entrants won in their last two starts. Tamar missed a week sick but could work out a similar trip to when he finished second and won from off the pace in August. Play 6-1 and 6-2 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #2

#7 NOTHINGCOMPARESTOU	Speed makes her a threat to end long winless drought.
#1 MISS M A K	Ran second to odds-on choice the only time she didn't break stride.
#2 WRITENINSAND	Rallied for second in second start back, moves outside in.
Race Summary	Nothingcomparestou met short-priced winners in her last two starts and has enough speed to get good forward position despite starting outside. She's worth a price shot in her third start locally, even with a poor record. Play 7-1 and 7-2 exactas.

Hoosier Park - Race #3

#6 SLEAZY ROLLS	Top money-earner in field this year lands in soft spot.
#1 CATCH N RELEASE	Ran second from on and off the pace in last pair.
#3 ELECTROCUTED	Improved try from second tier with first-time Lasix.
Race Summary	Sleazy Rolls hooked a repeat winner in August, made a middle move and flattened out as the beaten favorite two back and exits a fast race last out. She can upgrade her in-the-money percentage in this field. play 6-1 and 6-3 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-16-2021, 07:16 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Remington Park - Race #4

#2 Millwood	Drops out of optional claiming to $5,000 claiming and hasn't seen this level since January; has not performed well in his last two but gets Cabrera aboard and is due to return to good form.
#4 Attain Succcess	Battled from the start and finished second in his latest, which was at Lone Star; speed makes him a player and he can dig in and stand up to a challenge.
#1 King Ford	Was up in time in his last two at Louisiana Downs and the son of Afleet Alex has found a comfortable level.
Race Summary	Millwood has won over the strip and didn't fire last time after 2.5 months off; can improve in his second half and has the class to prevail.

Remington Park - Race #5

#2 Chocolateicecream	Was claimed at Canterbury last time by the Flores stable and is a six-time winner on turf, including two over this course; drops a bit from the price at which he was claimed and can be effective under Vazquez.
#3 He's a Suitor	Was fourth in a strong race last time out and can be a solid player throughout; doesn't run bad ones.
#9 Optimal	Has been competitive in sprints and gets the chance to stretch his legs around two turns; pedigree says distance really shouldn't be a problem.
Race Summary	Chocolateicecream has won a couple of races over the local greensward and has the kick to get it done.

Remington Park - Race #8

#3 Smack Attack	Made a solid late move for second last out in what was his only turf start; stays on the grass and doesn't have to improve much.
#1 American Made	Was the bottom end of a three-horse photo at Canterbury last out and broke his maiden over this course in 2018; lightly raced 6-year-old has a good chance here.
#7 Gold Vermilion	Was a clear winner here last out and was claimed by Keen; can be tough in his return.
Race Summary	Smack Attack was impressive in his turf debut last out and can benefit from that experience.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-16-2021, 08:51 AM

Laurel Park 5 Facts | Sept. 14-19

September 14, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Schedule:
Thursday-Sunday

Carryovers:
$4,259 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot

Feature Race(s):
Grade 3 $200,000 DeFrancis Dash // sprinters // Saturday
$100,000 Polynesian // older milers // Saturday
$100,000 Twixt // filly & mare milers // Saturday
$100,000 Weathervane // filly & mare sprinters // Saturday

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):
Avg. Late Pace (31%, +$22.40)
Avg. Speed (28%, -$6.60)
Distance Pedigree (26%, +$4.60)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:
J: Sheldon Russell // last week 17: 4-1-0 (24%, $0.80 ROI) // all 5 top-2 finishes at 5-2 or less
J: Horacio Karamanos // last week 14: 3-2-2 (21%, $2.29 ROI) // wins at 5-2, 5-2, 23-1; seconds at 6-1, 10-1
J: Jamie Rodriguez // last week 3: 2-0-1 (67%, $2.17 ROI) // wins at 1-5 and 4-1 // 2-2 with Jamie Ness
T: Jamie Ness // last week 4: 3-1-0 (75%, $2.58 ROI) // wins at 1-5, 5-2, 4-1 // 2-2 with Jamie Rodriguez
T: Mike Trombetta // last week 13: 3-2-1 (23%, $1.36 ROI) // wins at 4-5, 5-1, 8-1 // 2-7 with Julian Pimentel
T: Ferris Allen III // last week 4: 2-0-0 (50%, $7.03 ROI) // wins at 2-1, 23-1

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-16-2021, 08:53 AM

Gulfstream 5 Facts | September 14-19

September 14, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Schedule:
Thursday-Sunday

Carryovers:
$33,408 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot ($100,000-guaranteed pool Thursday)

Feature Race(s):
$100,000 Armed Forces // 2-year-old turf milers // Saturday
$100,000 Our Dear Peggy // 2-year-old filly turf milers // Saturday

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):
Earnings Track (28%, +$56.60)
Best Speed Distance (28%, -$16.60)
Last E1 (Early) Pace (27%, -$3.40)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:
T: Carlos David // last week 9: 3-0-1 (33%, $1.58 ROI) // wins at 9-5, 4-1, 5-1
T: Juan C. Avila // last week 7: 3-3-0 (43%, $1.59 ROI) // included 5-1 winner, 10-1 runner-up
T: Rohan Crichton // last week 12: 3-1-4 (25%, $0.98 ROI) // 5-17 over past 2 weeks
T: Victor Barboza // last week 7: 2-2-0 (29%, $0.89 ROI) // all top-2 finishers 3-1 or less
T: Gilberto Zerpa // last week 4: 2-1-0 (50%, $1.18 ROI) // wins at 6-5, 7-5
T: Tom Proctor // last week 3: 2-0-0 (67%, $1.90 ROI) // wins at 1-1, 5-2
T: Michael Yates // last week 4: 2-1-0 (50%, $2.20 ROI) // wins at 3-1, 7-2, runner-up at 7-1
J: Samy Camacho // last week 19: 4-4-0 (21%, $1.64 ROI) // 17-1 winner, runners-up at 14-1, 16-1
J: Jose Morelos // last week 13: 3-0-2 (23%, $4.16 ROI) // wins at 5-2, 5-1 and 42-1; thirds at 25-1, 13-1

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-16-2021, 10:56 AM

Free Winners for Thursday, September 16th 2021 from THE LEGEND!
FREE HORSE PICKS
CHARLES TOWN
RACE #3
TIME: 4:15 PM EST
PICK: BET #3 Going Strapless 4/1 odds to win @ Bovada

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-16-2021, 11:25 AM

Jay McNeil

My attention is on this Bobcats-Ragin' Cajuns contest and it will be a winner.

Thursday's free play will be to lay the points with Washington as they look to end a 5-game series losing streak to their division-rivals, the New York Giants.

Both teams looked bad on offense this past opening Sunday, as the Giants lost at home to the Denver Broncos by a 27-13 score, while the Football Team was on the short-side of a 20-16 home loss to the Chargers.

Washington's loss saw starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick get knocked out with a hip injury, but I am fine with Taylor Heinicke leading this team this evening, as the kid came into last year's home playoff loss to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers and acquitted himself quite well.

On a short week and at home, have to believe Heinicke will be just fine. I also feel the rugged Washington defense will also be just fine. In fact, better than fine at home and getting after Daniel Jones whose offensive line is still a major concern for Joe Judge's team.

With Saquon Barkley on a "pitch count" if you will, and Evan Engram listed as doubtful, I think Big Blue's offense which scored just 13 on Sunday is going to be hard-pressed to stay close for the full 4 quarters tonight.

Lay it with Washington.

2* WASHINGTON

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-16-2021, 02:14 PM

Mitchell Newman

When the Bobcats and the Ragin' Cajuns last played back in September of 2019 in Athens, the teams combined for 70 points and an Over. Flash-forward to 2021 and these teams will be meeting again, only this time in Louisiana, and this time they are both starving for a win as they enter at 0-2.

Ohio has not shown much offensive firepower thus far this season as the Bobcats could only score 9 points in their season-opening loss - and Under - against Syracuse. I just don't trust Ohio U to be able to generate much offense in their first road contest of the season.

As for Louisiana Lafayette, the Cajuns have opened the season with Unders in each of their first 2 games this year and they are now 7-2-1 Under the total in games dating back to last year. Throw in the fact that each of Lafayette's last 4 Thursday night games has landed Under the total and the Under is 5-0-1 for their last 6 non-conference showdowns and I will take my chances with the Under this Thursday night in the Bayou.

Ohio-Lafayette goes Low.

1* OHIO-U.L. LAFAYETTE UNDER

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-16-2021, 02:15 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Hastings

Hastings - Race 3	Exactor / Triactor / Superfecta / Pick 4 (Races 3-4-5-6)
Claiming $6,250 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $13,000 • Post: 4:41P
(PLUS UP TO $4,550 THRIF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE AUGUST 16 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 16 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE JULY 16 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250, FOR EACH $625 TO $5,000 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY). BRITISH COLUMBIA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Trailer. ADITYA is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ADITYA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. FORT LANGLEY: Horse is dropping in class, h as an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. YOU DON'T OWN ME: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. QUAGMIRE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
6	ADITYA	5/2	9/2
4	FORT LANGLEY	9/5	6/1
1	YOU DON'T OWN ME	6/1	7/1
5	QUAGMIRE	7/2	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	BABY GRAND	3	10/1	Front-runner	71	71	66.6	66.6	55.6
2	KHAIKY'S COMMAND	2	9/2	Front-runner	70	70	63.4	63.4	53.4
5	QUAGMIRE	5	7/2	Front-runner	80	77	55.0	55.9	52.4
4	FORT LANGLEY	4	9/5	Alternator/Stalker	80	78	60.0	66.0	60.0
1	YOU DON'T OWN ME	1	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	78	73	52.9	65.3	58.8
6	ADITYA	6	5/2	Trailer	77	74	62.6	71.1	67.6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-16-2021, 02:16 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Arlington

Arlington - Race 2	$2 Win/Place/Show / $1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta $0.50 Early Daily Pick 4 (2-5) / $0.20 Daily Pick 7 (2-8) (15% Takeout) $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 2-4)
Claiming $20,000 • 6 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 64 • Purse: $17,000 • Post: 3:03P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 16 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $16,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. TIZALADYBUG is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TIZALADYBUG: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Hors e has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
1	TIZALADYBUG	10/1	5/2

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	TIZALADYBUG	1	10/1	Alternator/Front-runner	70	62	84.4	64.4	60.4
6	ROYAL MISSION	6	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	67	68	72.6	46.4	36.4
4	U CAN DO IT	4	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	73	63	64.9	57.7	51.7
2	SHE'S WANDAFUL	2	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	74	69	50.8	55.4	48.4
5	DANCIN AT MIDNIGHT	5	4/1	Trailer	62	60	58.7	53.3	43.8
3	MY BOSS LADY	3	4/1	Trailer	73	62	33.4	59.5	51.5
7	NURSE SADIE	7	12/1	Trailer	64	53	20.2	45.4	33.9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-16-2021, 02:16 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Indiana Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $12500 Class Rating: 70

FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2021 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 16 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 ROYAL TO BE 12/1
# 1 MARINA NIGHT 6/1
# 3 HOPPESTRY 7/5

My selection in this competition is ROYAL TO BE and could score at a price in here. Will likely be one of the front-runners of the bunch going into the halfway point of the competition. MARINA NIGHT - Esquivel and West are a strong pair for returns. Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by West have shown solid results lately. HOPPESTRY - Should keep the impressive string of finishing positions intact this time out. Has to be given a shot versus this group displaying respectable figures lately and an average speed figure of 61 under similar conditions.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-16-2021, 02:17 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Thistledown - Race #8 - Post: 4:20pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $24,000 Class Rating: 68

Rating:

#5 HOLDONTOYOURTIARA (ML=3/1)

HOLDONTOYOURTIARA - I really like sprinters that make a fast turnaround. This filly is in fine form. Ended up third on September 6th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 DANCING IN FIRE (ML=7/2), #4 Z U IN MY DREAMS (ML=4/1), #3 PRECISION PRADO (ML=9/2),

DANCING IN FIRE - You always figure that this horse has a shot to cross the finish line in first, but she falls short most every time. Mediocre speed rating in the last race at Colonial Downs at 5 1/2 furlongs. Don't believe this entrant will improve too much in today's race. Z U IN MY DREAMS - In any event of 6 furlongs, I like to play a contender that has been looking good in short distance races of late. This mount ran a mediocre speed figure in the last race. She shouldn't improve and will likely get beat in today's race running that fig. PRECISION PRADO - In this situation, this steed's inability to close in the last event is definitely troubling.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - HOLDONTOYOURTIARA - Playing the top earnings per start thoroughbred is an angle which won't steer you wrong in the long run. I'm betting on this one.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #5 HOLDONTOYOURTIARA on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	5 with 4
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-16-2021, 02:18 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Albuquerque

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Maiden Claiming - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $16800 Class Rating: 67

QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 SIVAKO 4/1
# 3 MY SWEETY PIE 6/1
# 12 JY LA MADRECITA 20/1

My pick in here is SIVAKO. Is worth a look and may be a wager - strong speed figures (65 average) at today's distance and surface as of late. With a formidable rider who has won at a strong 21 percent rate over the last 30 days. This has to be one of the top choices. Recorded a solid speed fig last time out. MY SWEETY PIE - Has to be given consideration based on the very good Equibase Speed Figure recorded in the last contest. JY LA MADRECITA - Ought to compete soundly in the early pace battle which bodes well with this field. Munoz is trying to score with this horse by bringing her back so soon.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-16-2021, 02:19 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Evangeline Downs - Race #7 - Post: 8:32pm - Starter Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,500 Class Rating: 93

Rating:

#3 MOMENT (ML=6/1)
#4 KING OF THE TESTO (ML=5/2)
#1 ZENUCCI (ML=9/2)

MOMENT - Jockey jumped on this gelding's back for the first time on Sep 1st. Should know the equine even better in today's contest. We have lots of early speed with this steed. He could wire this field. KING OF THE TESTO - This thoroughbred coming off a good race in the last month or so is a strong challenger in my opinion. A winning percentage the likes of what Cotto and Bourgeois have achieved together is tremendous. Just check out his most recent fig, 83. That one fits well in this bunch. ZENUCCI - Thornton and Broberg have had fabulous success together over the last year.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 ARCHIE (ML=7/2), #5 LIGHTHAWK (ML=4/1), #2 THAT'S D 'CAT (ML=8/1),

ARCHIE - Caution must be used since bandages were a new feature on Sep 2nd. In the last race it was a nice victory, but this time the stretch run is going to be a true test of courage. Doubtful that the speed rating he earned on September 2nd will be enough in this affair. LIGHTHAWK - Should be difficult for this mount to beat this group off of that last speed rating. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the possibly overvalued equines list. THAT'S D 'CAT - Finished first in his most recent performance with a mediocre fig. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this field.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 MOMENT is the play if we get odds of 5/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	3 with [1,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3,4] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,3,4] with [1,3,4] with [1,2,3,4,6] with [1,2,3,4,6] Total Cost: $36

Thursday 9/16/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Thursday 9/16/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment