Service Plays Sunday 9/19/21

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey

[Yellow]

Essler 3* GOM

Dolphins +3.5

[dawggy]

Game: (279) Los Angeles Rams at (280) Indianapolis Colts
Date/Time: Sep 19 2021 1:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Indianapolis Colts +4.0 (-110)

Indianapolis looked pretty bad last week. Rams looked pretty good Sunday Night. I saw a Rams team that faced a defense that was beyond pathetic. The Colts followed tradition and lost week 1 for the 7th or 8th yr in a row. What do they do afterward, they rebound. The Colts were one of my top 5 teams last year and they have a deep team to put on the field. Wentz is a bit of a concern, but having a game under his belt will help. I want to see if the Rams can do it again vs a far better defense, and a better offense than Chicago. They take it on the road and lay 4 to a solid team. I'm liking the value here.

[dawggy]

• BTC SPORT
• Jets Stuck on the Runway
  Game: (285) New England Patriots at (286) New York Jets
  Date/Time: Sep 19 2021 1:00 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 4 units
  Play: 1H New England Patriots -3.0 (-115)
  
  What were the two biggest question marks/weaknesses on the Jets' roster heading into the season? Offensive line and secondary. After Week 1, those units are even thinner. Left tackle Mekhi Becton suffered a dislocated knee cap. Safety Lamarcus Joyner (tricep) is out for the season. Linebackers Jamien Sherwood (sprained ankle) and Blake Cashman (hamstring) will miss a couple of weeks. Punter Braden Mann (knee) is out. I'm going to focus on playing the first half because Zach Wilson might find his footing in the second half and keep the backdoor open like he did last week against the Panthers. I think Coach Belichick and this Patriots' defense is going to overwhelm him at the start of the game while the Jets piece their roster together. Wilson was pressured on 17 drop-backs last week against Carolina and went 5-for-17 on those plays. Center Connor McGovern earned the worst offensive line grade in the league last week. New England held Miami to 259 total yards while generating seven tackles for a loss. At the time of posting, New England -3 1H is available at FanDuel (-115); DraftKings (-115) and BetOnline (-115).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers

Miami 4% at +3.5, 3% at +3, 2% at +2.5 or lower
LA Rams 3% at -4 or lower, 2% at -4.5 or higher
San Francisco - Philadelphia Over 4% at 51 or lower, 3% at 51.5 or higher
Tampa Bay 5% at -13.5 or lower, 4% at -14, 3% at -14.5 or higher

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HITMAN | NFL Prop - Sunday, Sep 19 2021 1:00PM
Ben U278.5

(-115)William Hill 275 LVR vs 276 PIT single-dime bet

HITMAN | NFL Prop - Sunday, Sep 19 2021 8:20PM
Hardman U3.5

(-130)William Hill 295 KAN vs 296 BAL single-dime bet

Analysis: Mecole Hardman (KC) U3.5 receptions -130 (DK/Whill/Westgate)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brad Powers

1* Panthers
.5* Steelers
.5* Vikings

[dawggy]

• BTC SPORT
• Jets Stuck on the Runway
  Game: (285) New England Patriots at (286) New York Jets
  Date/Time: Sep 19 2021 1:00 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 4 units
  Play: 1H New England Patriots -3.0 (-115)
  
  What were the two biggest question marks/weaknesses on the Jets' roster heading into the season? Offensive line and secondary. After Week 1, those units are even thinner. Left tackle Mekhi Becton suffered a dislocated knee cap. Safety Lamarcus Joyner (tricep) is out for the season. Linebackers Jamien Sherwood (sprained ankle) and Blake Cashman (hamstring) will miss a couple of weeks. Punter Braden Mann (knee) is out. I'm going to focus on playing the first half because Zach Wilson might find his footing in the second half and keep the backdoor open like he did last week against the Panthers. I think Coach Belichick and this Patriots' defense is going to overwhelm him at the start of the game while the Jets piece their roster together. Wilson was pressured on 17 drop-backs last week against Carolina and went 5-for-17 on those plays. Center Connor McGovern earned the worst offensive line grade in the league last week. New England held Miami to 259 total yards while generating seven tackles for a loss. At the time of posting, New England -3 1H is available at FanDuel (-115); DraftKings (-115) and BetOnline (-115).

• Two-Team Moneyline Parlay
  Game: 49ers and Patriots ML Parlay
  Date/Time: Sep 19 2021 1:00 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 4 units
  Play: 49ers and Patriots ML Parlay
  
  San Francisco moneyline: -155
  New England moneyline: -250
  Moneyline parlay payout: +130
  Check out the free play that's posted on my page for my thoughts on New England over the Jets. In all honesty, I think you can attack that one from a variety of angles. My free play recommended laying 3 (-115) in the first half. I'm recommending a moneyline play here. Heck, I think you can lay the full game spread, too. You're looking at a rookie quarterback that is now behind arguably the league's worst offensive line without Becton going against Bill Belichick and a top-5 defensive line. The Patriots have the advantage in every aspect of this contest.
  If you can erase San Francisco's near-collapse in the fourth quarter out of your brain, the 49ers put on a historic performance in the first half. They generated 10.5 yards per play in the first half. They were getting a first down every single time they snapped the ball. Jimmy Garoppolo enjoyed a 78-percent success rate in the first half, which again, is another fancy way of saying "The 49ers moved a large chunk of yards on nearly every play." San Francisco spent the whole week on the East Coast, so there's no travel or body clock concerns. Last week Philadelphia had a battle between two first-year head coaches. Now, Nick Sirianni is matched up with one of the league's best. I'll take the 49ers.
  
• The Dirty Birds
  Game: (289) Atlanta Falcons at (290) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  Date/Time: Sep 19 2021 4:05 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 3 units
  Play: Atlanta Falcons +12.5 (-110)
  
  Looking at historical trends in this series (or anything with Tampa Bay) is generally pretty pointless because Tampa Bay didn't have Tom Brady prior to last season. But this is a division matchup where the Falcons have done REALLY well for themselves. Atlanta has won six of the last nine meetings in this series. In their first meeting last year, Atlanta was up 24-7 in the third quarter before coughing up a lead (heard that one before?). In the second meeting, it was 30-27 Tampa Bay with five minutes to go in the game. Atlanta lost the turnover battle 3-0 and was only down a field goal with five minutes left.
  There's not going to be any kind of intimidation or discomfort from Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley and Co. They know what they're going up against. Division underdogs have done really well in these early-season spots, and last week was no exception. Houston beat Jacksonville as a 3-point home 'dog. Miami beat New England as a +3.5 road 'dog.
  Sometimes you have to let the odds board tell you a story. On Friday evening, Pinnacle is reporting that 90-percent of the money and 71-percent of the tickets are on the Bucs, yet the line has dropped from -13.5 to -12. Pinnacle, known as a sportsbook that caters to sharper bettors because of their larger limits, is the only book down to -12 while everyone else is at -12.5 or -13. That tells you that they are welcoming Bucs money and protecting against Falcons money.
  Shop around and make sure you're getting the best of the number, but I'm comfortable with playing Atlanta at anything larger than +11.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Las Vegas Cris

4% Colts +4
4% Dolphins +3/+3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R.J. White

DALLAS @ L.A. CHARGERS | 09/19 | 4:25 PM EDT
DALLAS +3
ANALYSIS: I want to jump on this early in the week as I don't expect threes to be available closer to kickoff. The Cowboys took it to the defending champs in Week 1, and in particular the defense played better than expected (final score notwithstanding). The Cowboys offense should put up points in every matchup, particularly if Zack Martin is back as expected. And we know the Chargers have no home-field advantage in L.A., and it may even be negative in this matchup considering the popularity of the Cowboys. You wouldn't make a neutral-site game between these two teams anywhere near three, which should tell you this line has value on the Dallas side.

+470 8-3 IN LAST 11 NFL PICKS
+363 8-4 IN LAST 12 LAC ATS PICKS
+190 3-1 IN LAST 4 DAL ATS PICKS
2:58 PM

LAS VEGAS @ PITTSBURGH | 09/19 | 1:00 PM EDT
UNDER 48
ANALYSIS: The Raiders just played an emotional home opener, beating the Ravens in their first game in front of the Vegas faithful. This appears to be a clear comedown spot for the team as a whole and particularly the offense, as they prepare a Steelers defense that just shut down an elite Buffalo unit in Week 1. But note that the Steelers offense didn't play particularly well in that game either, in particular getting nothing done in the first half. They should have an easier task here moving the ball against the Raiders defense, but I'm not sure they have the upside to score 35-plus in any given week. And that's what I think needs to happen for this to get Over.

+470 8-3 IN LAST 11 NFL PICKS
+513 14-8-3 IN LAST 25 PIT O/U PICKS
1:40 PM

NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA | 09/19 | 1:00 PM EDT
CAROLINA +3.5
ANALYSIS: The Saints have been elevated by the market after their surprising trouncing of the Packers, with this line a pick 'em on the lookahead number. To me, taking the Panthers this week means fading the Saints at their peak value coming off what will likely be Jameis Winston's best game of the season. While the Saints get Bradley Roby for this game, they lose Marshon Lattimore and Marcus Davenport, taking some bite out of their defense. The Carolina defense opened my eyes last week (even considering the matchup), and that unit looks to be making the jump. I expect a close game here that the Saints likely win by a field goal or less, so I'm hopping on it now to get the hook.

+470 8-3 IN LAST 11 NFL PICKS
+85 3-2 IN LAST 5 CAR ATS PICKS
9:31 AM

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Severance

NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA | 09/19 | 1:00 PM EDT
CAROLINA +3.5
ANALYSIS: The Saints were without Michael Thomas, David Onyemata and Wil Lutz, among a few others, in the shocking Week 1 blowout win over the Packers and will not have center Erik McCoy or defensive studs Marshon Lattimore or Marcus Davenport in Charlotte. That's a lot of talent lost. Also, five assistant coaches have tested positive for COVID -- obviously, that could spread to players. On the flip side, the Carolina defense looked much improved in Week 1 with six sacks in the win over the Jets. The 2020 Panthers went sackless the first two games and needed seven games to reach six. I believe there's a very good chance Carolina wins this outright but won't lose by more than 3.

+380 6-2 IN LAST 8 NFL ATS PICKS
+185 4-2 IN LAST 6 CAR ATS PICKS
1:25 PM

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Emory Hunt

SAN FRANCISCO @ PHILADELPHIA | 09/19 | 1:00 PM EDT
PHILADELPHIA +3.5
ANALYSIS: Both Jimmy Garoppolo and Jalen Hurts were strong in Week 1, but with all things being equal in this ball game, which QB do you trust if -- or when -- things break down? To me, that answer is simple: Hurts. Take the Eagles and the points.

+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS
+1411 33-17-1 IN LAST 51 PHI ATS PICKS
+70 4-3 IN LAST 7 SF ATS PICKS
TUE 9/14

CINCINNATI @ CHICAGO | 09/19 | 1:00 PM EDT
CINCINNATI +3
ANALYSIS: Throughout the offseason, the conversation was about the Bengals' offensive line and Ja'Marr Chase's dropped passes. What the conversation should've been about was the Bengals' much improved defense. The defense should do a solid job against a Bears offense that, under Andy Dalton, is pedestrian at best. Joe Burrow looked solid in his debut, and I have confidence that he can navigate through a very aggressive Bears defensive front seven.

+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS
+151 7-5 IN LAST 12 CIN ATS PICKS
+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 CHI ATS PICKS
TUE 9/14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alex Selesnick (aka PropStarz)

In Week 1, PropStarz went 4-1 on his picks.

Here are PropStarz's top NFL Week 2 prop plays:

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles

DeVonta Smith Over 3.5 Catches (-120)

Smith showed why the Eagles brass traded up to select the reigning Heisman winner with the 10th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. The former Alabama star had an electric Week 1, turning eight targets into six catches for 71 yards and a score.

Smith operated as the clear-cut No. 1 receiver for the Eagles and displayed great chemistry with his former college teammate Jalen Hurts. I expect the volume to again be there against a 49ers pass defense that will be without top corner Jason Verrett, who suffered an ACL tear in Week 1.

I could see game script working in Smith's favor as the 49ers are 3.5 point favorites in Philadelphia.

Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers

Hunter Renfrow Over 3.5 Catches (-150)

Since being selected in the fourth round of the 2019 NFL Draft, Renfrow has become a security blanket for quarterback Derek Carr. The slot receiver had a solid season debut, reeling in six catches on nine targets.

Pittsburgh's defense loves to blitz, and as a result, opposing QBs are forced to get rid of the ball quickly. The Steelers' front seven was in Josh Allen's face all day in Week 1, and Allen only mustered one completion longer than 20 yards despite tossing 51 passes.

Bills slot receiver Cole Beasley ended up with a whopping 13 targets. Renfrow and Beasley have similar roles, and this is reflected in their respective ADOTs (Renfrow 7.1 and Beasley 7.8).

The Steelers D was excellent covering opposing tight ends in 2020, surrendering the second-fewest yards to the position. I expect a ton of attention to go toward slowing down Darren Waller, which could provide some additional opportunities for Renfrow.

Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals

A.J. Green Under 3.5 Catches (-125)

The once-dominant receiver has been held under four catches in seven of his last 10 games dating to last season. In four of those games, Green didn't register a single reception.

Green was held to only two catches in his Cardinals debut and looked to be a step slow and had trouble separating from DBs.

Speaking of separation, Green averaged 1.7 yards of separation per target, tied for worst among all receivers in 2020.

Both Christian Kirk (five catches, 70 yards, two TDs) and dynamic rookie Rondale Moore (four catches, 68 yards) appeared far more explosive and were more productive despite Green playing more snaps and having more targets.

Kirk and Moore should continue to take on bigger roles in the Cardinals offense at the expense of Green. It is only a matter of time until he's the fourth or fifth option in their passing attack.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Leonard Fournette Over 2.5 Catches (-150)

While Fournette is not necessarily known for his receiving skills, he has quietly become one of Tom Brady's favorite short-area targets.

Fournette has had at least three receptions in eight of his last nine games. Fournette has at least three catches in 12 of the 17 games he has played with Brady under center.

Atlanta gave up the ninth-most receptions to opposing RBs in 2020.

Until either the Bucs stop featuring Fournette in their passing offense or this number moves north of 3.5 receptions, I will continue to happily pay the juice here.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

D.J. Moore Over 4.5 Catches (-130)

Moore looked great in Week 1 versus the Jets, reeling in reeling in six catches (eight targets) for 80 yards.

I was encouraged by the way the Panthers deployed Moore, and he even ran some underneath routes, compared to previous seasons where he's been primarily used down the field with a deeper ADOT.

Moore has had at least five catches in five of his last six games, dating to last season. The Saints will be without stud cornerback Marshon Lattimore, which is a major boost to Moore's individual matchup.

I like Moore to have his way against an undermanned New Orleans secondary, and I believe Sam Darnold will continue to pepper the fourth-year wideout with targets.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football jesus : Chicago bears -pts

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc Sports

nfl

5 indy+3.5
4 ne-6
3 pitt-6
2 tenn+6.5