2-4-09

[Mr. IWS]

Lee Kostroski
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 8* Central Florida (-3) vs. Houston, Wednesday at 7:00 PM EST

UCF is playing as well as any team in Conference USA not named Memphis. The Golden Knights have won 5 straight games and they are on a 7-0 ATS run. The odds makers still have not caught up with this team. They are very good right now.

UCF is 11-2 at home with their only losses coming at the hands of Florida and Memphis. They played Memphis tougher than any other team in the conference has this year losing by just 7 points. However, the game was even closer than the final indicated. The Tigers led by just 3 points with 47 seconds remaining in the game. During their 5 game winning stretch the Knights have been outstanding on both ends of the court. They’ve scorched the nets shooting 51% as a team while allowing their opponents to shoot only 37%. In conference play, this team is #1 in offensive points per possession and #3 in defensive points per possession in the 12 team conference. Their points per possession differential is a very good +0.180 in league games. The numbers show this is the best overall offensive team in the conference as they are #1 in field goal percentage, #1 in 3-point percentage and #1 in free throw percentage. They have perhaps the best player in Conference USA in Jermaine Taylor who is shooting over 50% from the field, over 41% from 3-point land and averaging 24 PPG.

Houston is struggling right now. They are in a bad spot coming off their “Conference Game of the Year” at Memphis on Saturday. The Cougs really wanted to make a statement in that game, but instead they fell flat losing 83-68. That was their third straight loss. Ever since blowing a big lead @ Arizona and losing, this team has been whipped at home by UTEP and lost @ Memphis. Now they travel for the second straight game and this will be their 5th road game in their last 7 outings. Another letdown is in order and that’s not a good thing when traveling to team that is playing great basketball. Lay this small number as UCF continues their roll.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-4-09

Lee Kostroski
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 5* Creighton (-2) vs. Drake, Wednesday at 8:00 PM EST

It’s not often that the Creighton Blue Jays are seeking revenge from an earlier season loss at home. That’s because they don’t lose very often at home. The Jays have lost just 7 games at home since the start of the 2005 season. They are 11-2 in the Qwest Center this year with one of their losses coming at the hands of this Drake team just a week and a half ago. It was Creighton’s worst performance at home in quite some time. The lack of effort and hustle that defines Dana Altman’s teams was not there. They shot just 30% from the field and were outrebounded by 11. A close game turned Drake’s way down the stretch when the Jays missed 16 of their final 20 shots and were outscored 28-15 over the final 13 minutes. Creighton had a 6-point halftime lead but shot just 22% in the second half while the Bulldogs went crazy hitting nearly 57%. After the loss the upset Altman stated, “I’m disappointed in myself. I’m disappointed with our team for not doing a better job today.” You can bet this team will be ready on Wednesday night.

The Bulldogs began the season on a huge run winning 13 of their first 16 games. However as of late this team has not been playing well. In fact, their only win since January 11th was @ Creighton. This team has lost 5 of their last 6 and two straight at home. Their most recent loss at home was to an Evansville team that had been playing very poorly coming into that game. The Aces had lost 4 of 5, including a 22-point home loss to Creighton. This Bulldog team is simply struggling to put the ball in the hole. Minus their win @ Creighton, they are averaging just 54 PPG since January 11th. They are shooting just 39% over their last 5 games and that INCLUDES their 57% outburst in the second half of the Blue Jay game which looks to be an aberration.

Creighton is 7-4 in conference play and their points per possession differential is +0.062. Drake is 5-6 in the league and their points per possession differential tells us they are not a good team right now as it stands at -0.004 in conference play. Creighton is a veteran team with four seniors and two juniors in the rotation and they are not fazed by playing on the road. They are 3-3 this year away from home in league play. They get revenge tonight and top a struggling Drake team.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-4-09

JEFFERSON-SPORTS



NBA EARLY RELEASE FOR WEDS
DENVER UNDER 214.5

Billups banged up last night will either keep him out or limit his playing time tomorrow night. He is definitely the general of that offense and it should struggle enough to dip under this number. OKC has had a few days off and D was a major focus of the extra time. They have been improving defensively.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-4-09

Las Vegas Sport Picks

NCAA:

1* Oklahoma -13
2* Mississippi -3

NBA:

1* Nuggets -4.5
2* Suns/Warriors over 229
3* Clippers +14

NHL:

1* Leafs/Sabres over 6

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-4-09

ATS Sports Club
February 4, 2009

Soccer:

Liverpool +130 (English FA Cup)

NEC Nijmegen vs. FC Groningen over 2.5 (Dutch Eredivisie)

Palmeiras vs. Real Potosi over 2.5 (Copa Libertadores)

NBA:

Lakers -8
Suns/Warriors over 229

NHL:

Coyotes/Red Wings over 5.5
Leafs/Sabres over 6

NCAA:

Wake Forest -2
Nebraska -4
Texas -3

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-4-09

Lee Kostroski
REASON FOR PICK: 8* Play on: Atlanta Hawks (+) over Minnesota T'Wolves

Today I step out with a large wager on the Atlanta Hawks (+) over the Minnesota Timberwolves. This really is the perfect spot for a bet ON Atlanta and AGAINST Minnesota and I’ll take advantage of a generous number by the oddsmakers. Atlanta comes into this game fully rested as they’ve been off since last Saturday which has given them valuable practice time the past three days. Minnesota meanwhile is coming off a game last night at Indiana and this will be their 3rd game in a four night span, 4th in six nights and 5th game in eight nights. Not to mention last night they expended a ton of energy in a dramatic come from behind win over the Pacers. Fatigue was certainly a factor last night as evidenced by the T’Wolves 21 turnovers which is a sure sign of mental weakness. On the season the Wolves are just 7-15-1 ATS at home and in their last 18 home games they are 6-12 SU but only ONE of those wins came against a team with a winning record which was New Orleans who had injuries at the time. Overall the T’Wolves are 2-11 ATS at home against teams with a better than .500 record.

Now some of you are questioning how we could take the Hawks tonight without their All-Star guard Joe Johnson but that will be a POSITIVE in our favor. You see, Johnson really hasn’t been playing that well lately and typically when a big name starter misses a game the bench players elevate their play the first game out when getting more minutes. Johnson is having a poor season shooting the ball as his season average of 42.7% FG percent is the lowest of his career. In his last seven games he’s really struggled with his ‘stroke’ as he was just 44 of 119 or 37%. Replacing Johnson in the starting lineup will be Mo Evans but he’s not the guy that will pick up JJ’s scoring load. That will fall on the shoulders of Ronald Murray and we’re quite confident he’ll rise to the occasion and here’s why. Murray doesn’t get nearly as many minutes as Johnson gets but take a look at what he’s done his last seven games. Murray is 49 of 105 from the field for 47%, averaging over 18 ppg. So no, the Hawks won’t struggle to score points without Johnson on the floor tonight AND they are getting their starting center Al Horford back tonight who will be fresh and able to contain Al Jefferson in the post. Atlanta has struggled on the road this season but with the Wolves in a tough scheduling spot we like the Hawks to win this game by double digits. Play Atlanta!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-4-09

Vegas Sports Experts
VSE Power Plays

10* Take USC (+8.5) over UCLA (NCAA Power Play)


-------------------------------------------------------------


5* Take LA Lakers (-8.5) over Toronto (NBA Bonus Play)



Bonus Hoops & NHL Plays are:

3* Take Drake (+1) over Creighton (NCAA)

3* Take Detroit (-320) over Phoenix (NHL)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-4-09

Lenny Del Genio's Famous Nba Trifecta Tonight.

Play Is On Toronto +7.5 (7:00 Start)
Play Is On Cleveland -5.5 (7:30 Start)
Under 211 Denver Nuggets Game (8:00 Start)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-4-09

Handicapper: Mr East
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Miami Heat @ Detroit Pistons - Wednesday February 4, 2009 7:35 pm
Pick: 3 units TOTAL: Under 181 (-110)



The Pistons have been one of the top defensive teams in the NBA for many years, and that holds true for the 2008-09 season as well. Over the last 3 years, plus this season to date, they lead the NBA in games allowing under 80 points at 43 times. That is quite a defensive accomplishment when you consider Boston is the only other eastern Conference team over 20 at 23. there is one difference this season however, as the Pistons have their worst offense in years as well. The Pistons rank 29th overall in points scored, which is their lowest ranking in each of the last 5 years. They have also completed each of the past 6 years with more games played under than over. Miami has never solved this Piston defense. Over the last 15 games played between these teams the Heat have never once topped 95 points in any game. The oddsmakers have goofed badly on this one as with the Pistons a 4 point favorite, and a total of 180.5 the expected final score reads DETROIT 92.5 MIAMI 88.5. The heat have reached 89 points against the Piston defense just 4 times in the last 15 meetings, making the expectation they reach it here, 26.7%. The Pistons have reached 93 just 3 times in the last 15 meetings making the expectation they reach it here just 20%. The Pistons have averaged just 87.6ppg vs the Heat, while the Heat has managed just 84.7ppg vs the Pistons.

THE HISTORY:

15 games played 2,586 points scored or 172.4ppg
The average line set in the 15 games was 183.2ppg
The average margin played below the line was 10.8ppg

60% of the 15 games has seen the under win by 9 points or more!

There have been 15 games or 30 possible scores that breakdown as follows:

OVER 100 scored 0
90-100 11
80-90 13
70-80 5
60-70 1

Number of games both teams reached 90: 1

Number of games with the line set at or below this one: 6
Number of those games that went under: 5

POSSESSIONS PER GAME:

There are only 6 teams in the NBA that average, and allow under 90 possessions a game. That is:

NO 87
PORT 87
DET 88
CLV 89
CHAR 89
SA 89

There are only 9 that allow 90 or less:

The 3 additions at 90 are MIAMI,ATL, and Hou

This pit 2 teams that have averaged in the top 20% of the league in game pace all season.

WHY PACE DETERMINES UNDER NOT OFFENSE vs DEFENSE:

15 GAMES PLAYED:

MIAMI:

AVERAGE SHOTS PER GAME: 70.6
Made shots: 32.4
%age made: 45.9%

AVERAGE Complimentary Throws per game: 23.1
made FT's: 14.7
%age made 63.4%

AVERAGE 3's taken per game: 15.5
made 3's: 4.6
%age made: 29.7%

What does it take for Miami to get to the expected 89 points?

It will take them a lot. I have the same stats on Detroit in the 15 vs Miami, but due to time contraints won't be able to post.

GAME NOTES: Miami has shot well over 50% on 5 occasions, but 4 still went under! (PACE)
Miami had a game with 55% FG shooting, made 5 three's and took 47 FT's, and the game went UNDER! (PACE)

I have a lot more on this game, but just wanted to show the great detail I breakdown a game, and how selective I am. I do my homework gentlemen

13 of the 15 have gone under, and 60% of those by 9 points or more.

MY PLAY:

MIAMI/DET UNDER 180.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-4-09

Bob Balfe

NBA Basketball
Knicks +5.5 over Cavs

NCAA Basketball
Miami Florida +2.5 over Wake Forest
Missouri +4.5 over Texas

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-4-09

ATS Lock Club
6 Ole Miss -2.5
5 Tenn -4
5 Mich. St -8
4 Texas -4.5

ATS Financial Package
4 LaSalle +1
4 St Louis -1
3 N.D. -2.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-4-09

ChicagoSportsConnection
Shoulda won the BRADLEY play yesterday.
Up 8 with 3 minutes and change left in the game....N IOWA hit 5 striaght 3 pointers.
Damn it.

But, can't complain....
.....we've had our fair share of good covers lately.

************************************************** ******
One play I like alot in the NBA........

NYK +5.5 vs Cleveland......7:35 EDT
We've done pretty good picking our spots playing against CLEV on the road.
Here, we have CLEV playing their 5th game in 7 nights with alot of travel involved.

The KNICKS are fairly rested....they've only played one B2B in the last 2 weeks.
...and watched the CAVS on TV last night in the comforts of their own homes (or their girlfriends home).
...they are 6-2 SU in their L8.
...and 7-0 ATS until loss to LAK on Monday when K.Bryant poured in 61.

The KNICKS had won 5 straight @ home before the Laker loss.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-4-09

Sea Bass 100* ATL Hawks vegas steam play
50* clem
50*bc
50lasall
50*dal mav
50*cavs

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-4-09

igz1 sports

Wednesday Action !!
Tuesday Recap: 1-0 CBB (+80 pts) : 1-1 NBA (-8 pts)

CBB
4* George Washington +11.5 (-110)
4* Southern Miss -3 (-110)
3* NorthEastern -8 (-110)
3* Drexel -1 (-110)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-4-09

NSA's Selection
CBB Texas A&M @ Oklahoma 9:00 20* Texas A&M +12.5
CBB Missouri @ Texas 9:30 10* Missouri +4.5
CBB Villanova @ Providence 8:00 10* OVER 148
CBB Wake Forest @ Miami-Fl 7:30 10* Miami-Fl +3.5
NBA LA Lakers @ Toronto 7:05 10* LA Lakers -7.5
NBA Cleveland @ New York 7:30 10* Cleveland -5.5