Service Plays Saturday 9/25/21

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stanford Steve

Nebraska +5
UCLA -4.5
Kent State +14.5
Minnesota -30.5
UTSA +3
Air Force -4.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chris Fallica

Nebraska +5
North Carolina -12
Mississippi State +2.5
UTSA +3

$100 ML Parlay 0-3

Maryland Terrapins -650
Duke Blue Devils -700
Iowa Hawkeyes -2400
Utah Utes -700
BYU Cougars -2000
Florida Gators -1300
Michigan Wolverines -1300


Dogs on the ML

Nebraska Cornhuskers +175
Mississippi State Bulldogs +120
Syracuse Orange +205
Arkansas State Red Wolves +450
UTSA Roadrunners +145
Notre Dame Fighting Irish +200

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Spreitzer

Florida State +2 (3U)
Oklahoma -17 (3U)
Clemson -10 (3U)
New Mexico -1 (6U)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vernon Croy

AZ State -14.5 (4U)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allen Eastman

**8-U NCAAF GAME OF THE YEAR

Take #369 Kansas State (+6) over Oklahoma State

[rocky57]

Pickswise Sports

CFB 3* Best Bets
Wisconsin/Notre Dame Under 46
Kent State +14.5
Duke/Kansas Over 56.5
Kansas State +6
North Carolina -12.5

[dawggy]

BTC SPORT

• Cruisin' Carolina
  Game: (347) North Carolina at (348) Georgia Tech
  Date/Time: Sep 25 2021 7:30 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 3 units
  Play: North Carolina -12.0 (-110)
  
  You're not going to get rich by betting double-digit conference favorites on the road, so tread responsibly. But I do think this is a good spot for Carolina to continue to claw their way back up the rankings with another impressive win. That opening night loss to Virginia Tech is in the rear-view mirror, and now that we have the benefit of hindsight, that was a brutal spot for the Tar Heels. They were welcoming in new players in a lot of key positions on the road in one of the loudest stadiums in the country. They've bounced back really well, covering the spread by double-digits against Georgia State and Virginia. The Tar Heels have out-gained their three opponents by an average of 173 yards per game.
  I think North Carolina could enjoy a big mismatch in the trenches, much like Clemson did last week. Georgia Tech has a -9 sack differential on the season, giving up 11 sacks and only generating two of their own. In Tuesday's press conference, Georgia Tech coach Geoff Collins admitted that his team will probably be out-manned in the trenches. “I still vividly remember two years ago right out here us playing Carolina and that offensive line. Even coaching six or seven years in the SEC, that line was as big and physical as any team and they are still big and physical up front."
  I honestly don't know what you can take away from Georgia Tech's game against Clemson last week. There was a two-hour storm intermission before halftime. So the both teams had to warm up twice and essentially play two separate games. Georgia Tech's defense looked phenomenal, but how much of that was a product of the weirdness of the game?
  This game is at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta, so there really isn't any kind of home field advantage for Georgia Tech. I'm sure plenty of Carolina faithful will make the trek. The Yellow Jackets haven't played there since 2017, so there's no real familiarity with playing in the dome. Playing on the fast turf is probably an advantage for the superior athletes of North Carolina.

• Tigers Will Pounce
  Game: (343) Missouri at (344) Boston College
  Date/Time: Sep 25 2021 12:00 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 3 units
  Play: Missouri -1.5 (-110)
  
  You really can't understate how bad Boston College's schedule has been thus far. According to Bill Connelly's SP+ rankings, the Eagles have played the No. 103 (Temple) and 128 (UMass) teams in FBS, and the No. 101 team (Colgate) from the FCS. They haven't played a-n-y-b-o-d-y. Missouri is definitely a flawed team, particularly in their rushing defense. But the SEC speed and athleticism that they are going to put on the field is three notches above anything Boston College has seen so far this season.
  This will be Boston College's second game without star quarterback Phil Jurkovic. His backup, Dennis Grosel, didn't exactly install a lot of confidence last week against Temple. Grosel has been very hit-and-miss during his three years at Boston College. He was 32-for-46 for 520 yards in last year's finale against Virginia. Awesome, right? In 2019 he completed 48.6-percent of his passes. Last week against Temple he was 7-for-15 for 59 yards and an interception. Yeesh.
  During a Q&A session on Wednesday, a respected college football bettor said, "No injury thus far into the season is bigger than Jurkovic." I don't think the betting market has made a big enough adjustment from Jurkovic down to Grosel.
  Missouri is going to score in this game. Last season, the Tigers scored 45 vs LSU; 50 vs Arkansas; 32 at Mississippi State. Even in a losing effort, the Tigers generated 398 yards and 25 first downs against a very good Kentucky defense two weeks ago. The Tigers' offense is dynamic. You can pencil in 24 points for Missouri right now. Are we sure Boston College can match them?

• Hot One in Tulsa
  Game: (407) Arkansas State at (408) Tulsa
  Date/Time: Sep 25 2021 5:00 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 3 units
  Play: Total Over 63.0 (-110)
  
  Arkansas State plays at a very high pace, and temperatures are going to be in the low-90s on Saturday afternoon in Tulsa. That means you're going to see some worn-down defenses on both teams. The Red Wolves are averaging 87.5 plays per game so far this year (No. 2 in the country) after finishing No. 9 in plays per game last year. They utilize a two-QB system with James Blackman (remember him Florida State fans?) and Layne Hatcher. Arkansas State's defense is not good, but they do know how to cause a little havoc. The Red Wolves have forced seven turnovers in their first three games.
  The transfer portal has allowed these mid-tier schools to load up on offensive skill position players that have been cast off by bigger schools. On the Tulsa side, running back Deneric Prince is a Texas A&M transfer. Wide Receivers Josh Johnson (Iowa State) and Ezra Naylor (Kansas) are both Big XII transfers. Arkansas State has Blackman (Florida State) at quarterback and Johnnie Lang (Iowa State) at running back. Yes, Blackman had his struggles at Florida State, but he should shine in the Sun Belt.
  Tulsa is averaging 5.6 yards per play, which by itself doesn't sound all that impressive. But when you consider that two of their three games have come at Oklahoma State and at Ohio State, that carries some serious value. If the Golden Hurricane can move the ball efficiently against a Big XII and a Big Ten squad, then they should have no problem doing the same against the Red Wolves. Tulsa's defense might be a step off in this game after chasing around Spencer Sanders, CJ Stroud and TreVeyon Henderson the last two weeks. Arkansas State should be able to put up some points of their own.

• Cruisin' Carolina
  Game: (347) North Carolina at (348) Georgia Tech
  Date/Time: Sep 25 2021 7:30 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 3 units
  Play: North Carolina -12.0 (-110)
  
  You're not going to get rich by betting double-digit conference favorites on the road, so tread responsibly. But I do think this is a good spot for Carolina to continue to claw their way back up the rankings with another impressive win. That opening night loss to Virginia Tech is in the rear-view mirror, and now that we have the benefit of hindsight, that was a brutal spot for the Tar Heels. They were welcoming in new players in a lot of key positions on the road in one of the loudest stadiums in the country. They've bounced back really well, covering the spread by double-digits against Georgia State and Virginia. The Tar Heels have out-gained their three opponents by an average of 173 yards per game.
  I think North Carolina could enjoy a big mismatch in the trenches, much like Clemson did last week. Georgia Tech has a -9 sack differential on the season, giving up 11 sacks and only generating two of their own. In Tuesday's press conference, Georgia Tech coach Geoff Collins admitted that his team will probably be out-manned in the trenches. “I still vividly remember two years ago right out here us playing Carolina and that offensive line. Even coaching six or seven years in the SEC, that line was as big and physical as any team and they are still big and physical up front."
  I honestly don't know what you can take away from Georgia Tech's game against Clemson last week. There was a two-hour storm intermission before halftime. So the both teams had to warm up twice and essentially play two separate games. Georgia Tech's defense looked phenomenal, but how much of that was a product of the weirdness of the game?
  This game is at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta, so there really isn't any kind of home field advantage for Georgia Tech. I'm sure plenty of Carolina faithful will make the trek. The Yellow Jackets haven't played there since 2017, so there's no real familiarity with playing in the dome. Playing on the fast turf is probably an advantage for the superior athletes of North Carolina.

• High-Scoring Hoosiers
  Game: (351) Indiana at (352) Western Kentucky
  Date/Time: Sep 25 2021 8:00 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 3 units
  Play: Total Over 64.0 (-110)
  
  This is a high total for a relatively boring team like Indiana, but it's justified. There are a handful of factors that I really like here. First, this is a “get right” spot for Michael Penix Jr. and this Indiana offense. This is a very similar handicap to what I said about Michigan's offense last week. Indiana head coach Tom Allen needs to know what he's working with here. He's not going to learn anything about Penix's health and the status of this offense by just turning around and handing the ball off to a running back. This offense needs to get on track, and I think they're going to be very aggressive by letting Penix throw the ball.
  Speaking of aggressive, that's exactly what the Western Kentucky squad is. For those that haven't seen a lot of Western Kentucky this season, their whole offense essentially has been brought over from FCS-level Houston Baptist. They have a fifth-year senior quarterback who started 36 games at Houston Baptist, and they brought over their offensive coordinator, quarterbacks coach and top three wide receivers to go along with him. Bailey Zappe was 28-of-40 for 435 yards and three touchdowns against Army. They combined for 73 points, and honestly, it should have been closer to 90. It was 0-0 after the first quarter because the first three drives of the game ended in the opponents' red zone. They combined for 893 yards and there was one punt in the game. I think we see a pretty similar outcome here.
  Western Kentucky is coming off a bye, so they've had time to add some wrinkles into their passing game. Weather looks picture-perfect on Saturday night in Bowling Green. I think we see these two teams light up the scoreboard.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Asa

6* utsa

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Norm Hitzges' Picks of the Pole

DOUBLE PLAYS:

Kansas State +6
Washington -7.5

SINGLE PLAYS

Oklahoma -17
Iowa State -7
Texas Tech +8.5
North Texas +11
UTSA +3
Indiana -9
Iowa -23.5
Southern Miss +45
Oregon -28.5
Oregon State +11

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mark Lawrence

Notre Dame

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pure Lock

10* Coastal Carolina -35.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tom Stryker

100% NCAA CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH
Clemson

14-0 ATS NCAA PERFECT DATABASE WAGER
Troy

NCAA 3-GAME POWER PACKAGE (GO 3-0)
Northwestern
Baylor
Arizona State

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. Bob Stoll

Oregon State +11 vs. USC
Michigan -20.5 vs. Rutgers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Stone

Utah State +9.5 vs. Boise State
Texas Tech/Texas Over 61
Buffalo -12.5 vs. Old Dominion

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Will Hill

Arkansas +5.5 vs. Texas A&M
Wisconsin/Notre Dame Under 47
Western Michigan -3 vs. San Jose State