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Maddux
10* Eagles +4
10* Eagles +4
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Jeff Ma
CowboysComment
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Martin Green
Crystal Palace vs. Brighton (Monday, 3 p.m.)
Brighton draw no bet -143 (1 unit)
Both teams to score -110 (1 unit)Comment
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Nick Borrman
Game: Brighton at Crystal Palace
Date/Time: Sep 27 2021 3:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Crystal Palace +0.25 (-125)
England Premier League
Brighton has gotten off to a hot 4-1 start while Palace have just one win on the season but I don't think there is as much that separates these teams as it looks on the surface by looking at records, especially not enough to give Palace a head start at home.
Brighton has done what they have needed to do, beaten up on a weak schedule so far, although they did beat Leicester, but so far it seems Leicester is a shell of their former self. Palace meanwhile have already played Chelsea and Liverpool, losing to both by the same 0-3 score which is understandable. But they drew against a good West Ham team and against Brentford who have really been playing well and are coming off a draw against Liverpool themselves. They also beat Tottenham 3-0
Palace (But take out the two games against Chelsea and Liverpool)
1.23 xG | 1.24 xGA (1.73 xG | 0.75 xGA)
10.2 Shots for | 2.2 on Goal (11.3 Shots for | 3.7 on Goal)
13.6 Shots allowed | 4.8 on Goal (10.0 Shots allowed | 3.7 on Goal)
Brighton
1.19 xG | 1.15 xGA
11.4 Shots for | 4.2 on Goal
11.8 Shots allowed | 2.6 on Goal
TAKE CRYSTAL PALACE +0.25
Line Parameter: 4% at +0.25 up to -140, 3% at +0
Game: Torino at Venezia
Date/Time: Sep 27 2021 2:45 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Torino -0.25 (-120)
Italy Serie A
Torino lost their first two games of the year but have rebounded nicely with two wins and a draw since, and have very strong underlying numbers with their defense performing very well.
Venezia have four losses in five games including losing to lowly Spezia although they did beat another promoted side in Empoli. They look like a team that is only going to be in Serie A for one season before being sent back down as they are near the bottom in most statistically categories thus far.
Venezia
1.07 xG | 1.98 xGA
9.6 Shots for | 3.0 on Goal
15.0 Shots allowed | 5.4 on Goal
Torino
1.58 xG | 0.69 xGA
14.4 Shots for | 5.4 on Goal
7.6 Shots allowed | 2.8 on Goal
TAKE TORINO -0.25
Line Parameter: 4% to -0.5, but pay up to -130 to get -0.25 to protect half our wager against the drawComment
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TMTW
MLB:
5K TIGERS +135
5K NATIONALS +148
NFL:
5K DALLAS -3.5 -115
3K DALLAS Under 51.5 -110Comment
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Andrew McInnis 2%
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
Jalen Hurts over 54.5 rushing yards -115Comment
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Jim Feist
Philadelphia EaglesComment
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XS Sports Picks
MLB:
5 Seattle -115
3 Cincinnati -1.5 +120
3 Cincinnati Over 9.5
NFL:
5 Dallas -3 -117
5 Dallas FH -2.5 -120Comment
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Vernon Croy
Eagles U51.5 (6U)
Add
White Sox O9.5 -120 (5U)Comment
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Allen Eastman
Mariners -110 (4U)Comment
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Indian Cowboy
Brighton PK -140 (3U)Comment
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Docs
Crystal Palace PK +105 (6U)Comment
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Monday night Football Play of the Month headlines along with a 5* MLB Diamond cutter System. Comp play below.
The MLB Comp play for Monday is on Oakland at 10:10 eastern. Oakland has lost 9 straight to Seattle and after getting swept at home by the Mainers look for an Oakland team looking to serve up some revenge. In fact Irvin for Oakland lost just a few days ago to Flexen and the Mariners. Oakland fits a nice September specific system. Look for the A/S to take the opener. Monday night Play of the Month in the NFL Headlines along with a 5* Diamond Cutter in baseball. See us on facebook/twitter to Jump on as we start another big week. For the MLB Comp play. Go with Oakland. Rob V- Golden Contender SportsComment
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NFL Sharp Action
8:15 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
This Monday Night Football showdown features a pair of NFC East rivals with 1-1 records, although their public perceptions are vastly different, which may create a buy-low, sell-high opportunity. The Eagles (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) crushed the Falcons 32-6 in the season opener, but then dropped their Week 2 game to the 49ers 17-11, failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Cowboys (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS) are coming off their first victory of the season last week, upsetting the Chargers 20-17 as 3-point road dogs. Essentially, Dallas is hot in the eyes of the public, while the Eagles are cold.
This line opened with the Cowboys listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to ride with Dak and the Cowboys at home on a short spread. However, despite this lopsided betting, we've seen the line remain frozen at 3.5. In fact, the Eagles 3.5 is being juiced up to -115 to -120, signaling liability on Philadelphia and a possible fall to the key number of 3. Wiseguys seem to be backing the Eagles plus the hook based on the line freeze and juice reverse line movement.
Philadelphia has value as a contrarian road dog in a heavily bet primetime game. Primetime dogs are 5-3 ATS this season and 33-22 ATS (60 percent) over the past two seasons.
The Eagles also match the best betting system through three weeks: short road dogs 6 or less. They are 14-2 ATS this season and 114-71 ATS (62 percent) the past two seasons. Philadelphia has value as a divisional dog, as the built in familiarity with a common opponent levels the playing field and benefits the team getting points. Divisional dogs are 61-46 (57 percent) over the past two seasons. It's also been profitable to fade teams making their home opener in Week 3, like the Cowboys tonight. Over the past decade, fading them is 31-15 ATS (67 percent). Brad Rogers, the head referee, is 32-26 ATS (56 percent) to the road team historically.
The total opened at 51.5 and really hasn't budged at all. Primetime overs are 7-1 this season. Philadelphia is 2-0 to the under this season. Dallas is 1-1.Comment
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Elite Sports Picks
Washington (Gray)/Colorado (Marquez) OVER 11.5Comment
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