Wednesday 9/22/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Al Cimaglia: The 2021 Little Brown Jug Preview

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September 22, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
The 76th running of the Little Brown Jug will take place at the Delaware County Fair on Thursday. Thirteen 3-year-old pacers will face-off in two elimination races with the top four finishers taking part in the Final. The Little Brown Jug with a $397,080 purse will be the main event on the 20-race card that will begin at 12:00 EST at the fastest half-mile track in the world.

Race 16-Little Brown Jug Elimination #1-Purse $132,360

1-Borntobeshameless (9/2)-Ohio bred entry from the Christi Noble stable that will be driven by husband Dan is the only 3-year-old in either elimination that didn't race at two. The son of Big Bad John has three wins in 15 starts this year, with a 151.3 mark at Northfield and is a winner of two straight.

2-Lou's Pearlman (2-1)-Trainer Ron Burke will be seeking his third Jug victory with this son of Sweet Lou. Driver Yannick Gingras will take the lines and will also be looking to capture his third Jug Final. The morning line choice has 10 victories in 23 lifetime starts and is riding a three-race winning streak. Has banked over $245,000 this year with a 147.4 mark at the Big M. Should move on to the Final and will be well-backed.

3-Simon Says Hanover (12-1)-Trainer Tony Alagna will be looking for consecutive Jug victories with this son of Captaintreacherous. Regular driver Scott Zeron will be in the sulky, and he won the Jug in 2012 with Michael's Power. This longshot has half mile track experience, but recent form has been dull.

4-Mysweetboymax (6-1)-Conditioner Sam De Pinto and pilot Aaron Merriman will be trying for their first Jug win. This son of Sweet Lou has hit the board in 9 of 14 starts this year earning $159,502 but has taken only one picture.

5-Whichwaytothebeach (3-1)-Winner in 11 of 20 races has notched an impressive seven wins this year and will by driven by Andrew McCarthy. Conditioner Brett Pelling trains this second morning line choice and will be looking to capture his fourth Little Brown Jug. Pelling's current total of three is two shy of the record held by the great Billy Haughton. This 3-year-old is the model of consistency hitting the board in 19 of 20 lifetime starts.

6-Always A Miki (10-1)-Winner of over $331,000 as a freshman has fallen off this year earning only $54,571 in 11 starts. Dexter Dunn is usually between the pipes and will be driving in the elimination. Dunn as well as trainer Nancy Takter are looking for their first Jug win.

7-Town Gossip (8/1)-Trained by Jennifer Bongiorno this son of American ideal will be driven by her brother Joe, who won the 2020 Jug with Captain Barbossa. This 3-year-old comes off a second-place finish in the New York Sires stakes final and has five wins in 13 starts this year. The Jenn B barn has posted 31% winners over the last 30 days.

Race 17-Little Brown Jug Elimination #2-Purse $132,360

1-Rockyroad Hanover (7/2)-Lightly raced 2-year-old has caught fire as a sophomore capturing four wins and earning over $333,000 this season. As usual Dexter Dunn will steer this Tony Alagna trainee who has a 148.1 mark at the Meadowlands in 2021. Comes off a fifth-place finish in the North America Cup after being used hard from post 9.

2-American Courage (6-1)-This son of American Ideal was eligible for a $45,000 supplemental entry after winning the $500,000 Messenger Pace at Yonkers over a sloppy track. Trainer Travis Alexander has two Jugette wins on his resume, and this will be his first swing at the Brown Jug. Regular pilot Matt Kakaley will be doing the steering and looking to improve off two recent fourth place finishes.

3-Ill Drink To That (4-1)-Chris Ryder pupil has done its best work on the half mile track at Yonkers and comes off a New York Sires Stakes Final win on 9-10. Hall of Fame driver Tim Tetrick will be in the bike and the Jug is one of only a few prestigious races he hasn't won. This black American Ideal colt has won two straight and will be looking to give Ryder his first trip to the winner's circle in the Jug Final.

4-Water Sports Teen (8-1)-Winner of less than $9,400 as a 2-year-old has improved versus top competition since joining the Jenn Bongiorno barn in early July. Recent form has been a bit dull. But this son of Somebeachsomewhere has earned over $180,000 this year with 8 wins in 20 starts.

5-Bayfield Beach (12-1)-Winner of over $260,000 as a freshman has switched trainers a few times in what has been a very disappointing year and has only been in the Ron Burke barn for two starts. This longshot will need to find some better form against top 3-year-olds to qualify for the Jug Final and driver Yannick Gingras will be looking to provide a boost.

6-Perfect Sting (2-1)-This Joe Holloway trainee was a perfect 10 for 10 as a 2-year-old and has banked $651,633 as a sophomore. Regular pilot David Miller will steer the champion who ranks second in 3-year-old earnings for this year. Although not taking a picture in a big race in 2021 this colt hasn't been more than one length from a win in the last five near misses.

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #1

#3 Quiet Amigo	He woke up a bit last out when adding Lasix for the first time, and that was also his first local sprint try. Things to like here with guy drawn outside of him who is sure to take cash.
#4 Apache Tears	He outran his 82/1 price when beaten only a few lengths at Saratoga, and something similar to that would likely make him a handful here. Still, he's probably a short price off that running line while trying the local footing for the first time.
#5 Call Me Later	Speed draws outside and will likely have a go for it, but he has had nine chances and doesn't seem likely to have a ton of upside from here on out.
Race Summary	Quiet Amigo might be the right one to beat Apache Tears, as he seemed to like this trip last time out and may only really have to beat Apache Tears.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6

#6 Canadian Game	His form can be all over the place, but he'll cut back for this while bringing a running style that might work in his favor in a spot with some pretty sharp forward players. Late threat.
#8 Smoky Blues	He does great work here looks now for a third win in a row over the local footing, and he does get the best draw of the speedy types while outside. The one to beat.
#7 I'm Just Laughing	His running lines are a bit light for these, but the race shape may allow him to pass some tiring ones who quit after prompting the pace. Gimmicks player at a price?
Race Summary	Canadian Game has shown a bit of ability to finish from off the splits going short in the past, and he might appreciate the move back around one bend for the first time since last year.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#6 Like a Saltshaker	He's probably not going to offer much by way of price as he drops from a Grade I into this PA-bred allowance spot, and he should land a perfect tracking trip from the outside.
#1 Nice Ace	He has the pace to find the front from the fence and has done really good work locally, but he is still a question to see out this two-turn trip, and the top choice is unlikely to be a slouch late.
#2 Good On Ya	He's a good fit while getting back in with PA-bred company, and he has a bit of decent two-turn form. Could see him landing this one if the top choice misfires.
Race Summary	Like a Saltshaker has been competitive with the locals and doesn't meet a ton of depth in here, and he should get a perfect trip tracking the rail runner from the high draw.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Northfield Park - Race #1

#3 BLOCK WATCH	Close up to stretch in return, distant third to odds-on winner in follow-up.
#5 WHATLLYADOBOUTME	Second to 1-to-5 winner two back, evenly in faster race last week.
#1 WILLOW MILL GAL	Three wins look good in this field, outside-in post swap helps.
Race Summary	Block Watch is 1-for-20 this year but she paced evenly in a fast heat won by the 1-to-9 favorite. She can win with a duplicate effort against morning-line favorite Rockmatic, who is winless this year and racing for the fourth time in 11 days. Play a 3/1,5/ALL trifecta.

Hoosier Park - Race #4

#5 ROCKNROLL CHARM	Took serious money, ranged up on turn, evenly in lane.
#4 FEELIN LIKA WINNER	Classy 11yo couldn't reach winning fave through :55.4 back half.
#2 ANARCHY HANOVER	Got past top one late to finish third in 1:51.
Race Summary	Rocknroll Charm came out at the half, loomed boldly while advancing on the final turn but flattened out in the lane. He can move forward in his third start for a 24-percent barn. Play 5-2 and 5-4 exactas.

Yonkers - Race #10

#8 CLIFFHANGER	Late 4-wide burst came up short, moves inside out.
#2 CENTURY FURY	Can use his speed well in third start of current cycle.
#4 SECRECY	Just missed the last time he raced at this level.
Race Summary	Cliffhanger took serious money, surged 4-wide late to join a blanket finish in third and continued strong on the gallop out. He must overcome an inside-out post switch but should be up to the task if he gets early position. Play 8-2 and 8-4 exactas.

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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Remington Park - Race #1

#7 Funandfunny	Was along for second in his latest at Prairie Meadows and gets Cabrera for his first local start since last year; fast enough to be a factor from the start.
#2 Flat Out Avenger	Just missed last out in his first local start of the year; has a win and a total of 4 of 6 over the local strip.
#5 Fiftyshadesopurple	Has the speed to put up a fight and can dig in late for a major piece of this.
Race Summary	Funandfunny broke his maiden at Oaklawn in March and is getting back to good form.

Remington Park - Race #6

#1 Mongolian Lotus	Closed well for third last out at Canterbury, which isn't always easy to do, and he has been in some good races with good results. Had a three-race win streak at Turf Paradise early in the year.
#2 Mizzanna	Has good route speed on turf and can be around for the end of this one.
#5 Quinn Ella	Was up in time at Evangeline last out and has won three of her last five; doesn't run many bad ones.
Race Summary	Mongolian Lotus has the speed closing move in here and can get enough pace in front of him.

Remington Park - Race #9

#4 Replete	Was along for third on the turf here two back and then followed with a second on the main track at Evangeline; has not been able to get up going five furlongs, but he's 3 of 4 on the board at the distance and is due to get it done.
#8 Onward	Was second in three of his last four, including his last two on turf at Louisiana Downs; likes the distance.
#6 Revival	Has been very quick in dirt races and looks capable of keeping that speed as he moves to the grass; makes his second of the year.
Race Summary	Replete is a good closer and will get the pace he needs; one to hold off.

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Carmine Bianco

Event: (201377) Hellas Verona at (201378) Salernitana
Sport/League: ISAL

Date/Time: September 22, 2021 12PM EDT
Play: Hellas Verona +120
Italy Serie A - Hellas Verona at Salernitana
Quick Synopsis: This looks to be a good spot for Verona to build off their upset win over previously unbeaten Roma and pick up their 2nd win of the season. Verona were full marks for what was always going to be a tricky fixture for Roma. They take on newly promoted Salernitana who are destined to be a one and done side this season and back in Serie B next year. They put forth a solid home effort against a weakened Atalanta side last week but the result was another loss. We'll take the plus money short favorite here.
The play is Hellas Verona +120

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Nick Borrman

Event: Valencia at Sevilla
Sport/League: SLL

Date/Time: September 22, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: Total UNDER 2.5 (-125)
Spain La Liga
Spain's La Liga in general is a slower paced low scoring league. So far this season, the O-U record for the entire league against 2.5 goals is 36-58 which is a 62% Under win rate. Both of these teams have shown very good defenses this season, ranking #1 and #3 in xGA, Valencia #3 allowing 0.69 xGA per game and Sevilla has the lowest in the league allowing just 0.58 xGA per game. You can also throw in Sevilla's 1-1 draw against Salzburg in the Champions League last week as another Under.
Valencia so far seems to be a much improved team from last year where they finished 13th in the table and owned a -0.36 xG differential. They have benefitted from a rather easy schedule thus far as their first four games were all against bottom half of the table teams until Sunday where they lost at home 1-2 to Real Madrid. They did a great job against Real holding them scoreless until the 86' minute at which point Madrid equalized then scored again two minutes later to win the game.
This is another chance for Valencia to prove themselves redeemed this season and among the Top 6 teams in the league. I expect them to come out very disciplined on the back end as they look to at least earn a point in this game with a low-scoring draw.
Historically these teams have played to a lot of those type of games as only one of the last eight meetings has finished Over this total.
TAKE UNDER 2.5 GOALS
Line Parameter: 2% to 2.25, pay up to -140 to get 2.5

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Nick Borrman

Event: Swansea City at Brighton
Sport/League: SOC

Date/Time: September 22, 2021 2PM EDT
Play: Brighton -1.0 (-125)
England EFL Cup
Brighton continues to get better each year and are off to a fantastic start to the season going 4-1. Coming into the season, they were on my radar as a team to watch out for because of their performances last year. They struggled to get results, but they were creating chances and had strong xG numbers which are a great indicator for long term success.
Last season Brighton finished 16th in the table which is remarkable as they were the 5th best team in xG differential at +0.37 per game. Even more telling, they four teams above them all qualified for the Champions League, and they next two teams below them in xG differential, Leicester and West Ham, both qualified for the Europa League. Of the top 7 teams in the league in xG differential, they were the only team not to qualify for either the UCL or the UEL.
This year, their xG numbers aren't quite as solid, but still in the positive at +0.04 per game, but they are getting the results. Defensively they are allowing the 2nd least shots on goal per game at just 2.6.
Swansea are a 2nd tier Championship League side currently sitting 21st in the table of 24 teams with just one win through eight league games. They last time both teams were in the same league was 2017-2018 when Swansea was up in the EPL but they have fallen from grace since then. Brighton swept the season series that year.
TAKE BRIGHTON -1.0
Line Parameter: 2% at -1.0 up to -140

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Mike Wynn

Free Pick: LA Dodgers w/Buehler -180 over Colorado

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Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR WEDNESDAY: KANSAS CITY/CLEVELAND OVER the total of 9 runs

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Totals4U

Wednesday's Free Selection: Seattle Mariners/Oakland Athletics under 8 1/2

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Roz Wins

ROZ Selections WEDNESDAY, September 22, 2021

FREE MLB
929. Twins -1.09 (4:40 PT / 7:40 ET)

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Atlantic Sports

Wednesday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Seattle Mariners + 125

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#1 Sports

Wednesday's Free Play: Houston Astros - 195

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Platinum Plays

• Your Free Pick: the Houston Astros w/Garcia -140 over LA Angels