Saturday 10/2/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-01-2021, 11:32 PM

Golden Gate Fields 5 Facts (September 28-October 3)

September 28, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Schedule:

Friday-Sunday (Golden Hour Double, Pick 4 with Santa Anita returns)

Carryovers:

$6,058 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot
$5,175 // Super High Five
Meet's Closing Day // Sunday // mandatory payouts

Feature Race:

No stakes scheduled.

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Last Late Pace (33%, +$36.80)
Best Speed Last 3 (29%, +$16.00)
Speed Last Race (27%, +$1.80)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

J: Evin Roman // last week 17: 4-3-1 (24%, $1.71 ROI) // wins at $8, $14, $15, $19
J: Assael Espinoza // last week 11: 3-1-1 (27%, $1.70 ROI) // 2-3 with Andy Mathis // 10-33 over past 3 weeks
T: Bill McLean // last week 5: 3-0-0 (60%, $5.23 ROI) // wins at $9, $19, $23 // 2-2 with Santos Rivera
T: Andy Mathis // last week 6: 3-0-0 (50%, $2.23 ROI) // wins at $3, $7, $16 // 2-2 main track routes
T: Marcia Stortz // last week 4: 2-0-0 (50%, $5.58 ROI) // wins at $15, $29 // 4-15 since Sept. 1 at GGF

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-01-2021, 11:33 PM

Gulfstream 5 Facts (September 28-October 3)

September 28, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Schedule:

Thursday-Sunday (new 12:50 pm ET daily post; racing on Tapeta surface begins Thursday)

Carryovers:

$216,828 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot ($350,000-guaranteed pool Thursday)

Feature Race(s):

No stakes scheduled.

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Win % (35%, +$50.40)
% Of Horses Beaten (30%, +$12.20)
(In The Money) ITM % (27%, +$16.60)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

J: Luca Panici // last week 18: 5-2-3 (28%, $1.16 ROI) // winners at $4, $6, $8, $9, $13
J: Edgard Zayas // last week 24: 6-9-3 (25%, $0.82 ROI) // 18-49 over past 2 weeks
T: Saffie Joseph Jr. // last week: 14: 4-6-2 (29%, $0.89 ROI) // all 4 wins 2-1 or less // 7-21 over past 2 weeks
T: Ron Spatz // last week 3: 2-0-0 (66%, $3.47 ROI) // $6 and $14 winners // 2-2 with Miguel Vasquez
T: Merei Amador Sanchez // last week 5: 2-0-1 (40%, $1.56 ROI) // 2-2 in maiden claimers

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-01-2021, 11:33 PM

AI Picks: Laurel Stakes | Saturday, Oct. 2, 2021

October 1, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Saturday’s Fall Festival card at Laurel Park puts the spotlight on five stakes races worth $600,000 in purses. To assist your handicapping, key stakes selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.

You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app. We’ve included the official track morning line odds with each runner.

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Laurel Park // Race 3 // 1:40 pm ET // Laurel Futurity // 1-1/16 miles (turf)

#3 Epic Luck (6-1) // 33%W
#4 City At Night (9-2) // 14%W
#8 Wow What A Summer (20-1) // 14%W
#7 Determined Kingdom (5-1) // 10%W

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Laurel Park // Race 4 // 2:10 pm ET // All Along Stakes // 1-1/8 miles (turf)

#5 Tuned (6-5) // 28%W
#6 Sweet Sami D (5-1) // 21%W
#3 Scatrattleandroll (12-1) // 19%W
#2 Oyster Box (8-5) // 13%W

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Laurel Park // Race 6 // 3:14 pm ET // Selima Stakes // 1-1/16 miles (turf)

#5 Consumer Spending (1-1) // 33%W
#8 Petition Prayer (6-1) // 14%W
#1 Sparkle Blue (6-1) // 14%W
#6 Paynt By Number (12-1) // 10%W

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Laurel Park // Race 7 // 3:46 pm ET // Laurel Dash// 5-1/2 furlongs (turf)

#3 Matta (6-1) // 28%W
#11 Francatelli (3-1) // 15%W
#7 Grateful Bred (6-1) // 14%W
#1 Smooth B (20-1) // 10%W

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Laurel Park // Race 9 // 4:50 pm ET // Japan Turf Cup Stakes // 1-1/2 miles (turf)

#5 Oceans Map (4-1) // 28%W
#2 Hierarchy (3-1) // 17%W
#4 A Thread of Blue (6-1) // 15%W
#6 Johng (15-1) // 15%W

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-01-2021, 11:34 PM

Laurel Park 5 Facts (September 28-October 3)

September 27, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

1/ST Look: Laurel Park 5 Facts (September 28-October 3)

Schedule:

Thursday-Sunday

Carryovers:

$2,555 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot

Feature Race(s):

$150,000 Laurel Futurity // 2-year-olds on turf // Saturday
$150,000 Selima // 2-year-old fillies on turf // Saturday
$100,000 Laurel Dash // turf sprinters // Saturday
$100,000 Japan Turf Cup // turf marathoners // Saturday
$100,000 All Along // turf route fillies & mares // Saturday

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Best Speed Fast Track (37%, +$32.40)
Trainer/Jockey 2-Year Win % (33%, +$25.00)
Trainer 6 Mo. Win % (32%, +$31.40)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

J: Eduardo Lopez // last week 12: 6-0-2 (50%, $3.79 ROI) // topped by $56 upsetter // 2-3 with Jamie Ness
J: Denis Araujo // last week 13: 4-0-2 (31%, $2.59 ROI) // wins at $8, $11, $17, $30 // 2-4 with Hamilton Smith
J: Grant Whitacre // last week 5: 2-1-1 (40%, $2.40 ROI) // 2-2 dirt routes, including $18 winner
T: Brittany Russell // last week 7: 4-0-1 (57%, $3.01 ROI) // $3, $7, $8, $23 winners // 8-15 over last 2 weeks
T: Rodolfo Sanchez-Salomon // last week 6: 3-0-0 (50%, $4.47 ROI) // wins at $9, $15, $29 // 2-2 with Luis Batista
T: Dale Capuano // last week 4: 3-0-1 (75%, $2.05 ROI) // wins at $4, $5, $6 // 2-2 with Jorge Ruiz
** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-01-2021, 11:39 PM

Race of the Week: Awesome Again at Santa Anita | Sat., Oct. 2

September 30, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
$300,000 GRADE 1 AWESOME AGAIN STAKES AT SANTA ANITA

The Lead:
Santa Anita's stacked series of final Breeders' Cup preps are in full force this weekend, headlined by Saturday's Grade 1 Awesome Again in the Classic division. It's the penultimate race on an 11-race program that features 4 graded stakes among the day's late pick five sequence. Horseplayers diving into the late pick five can take advantage of a massive $10,000 hit-and-split promotion when betting with Xpressbet and the 1/ST BET app.

Field Depth:
The 1-2 finishers in both the Santa Anita Handicap and Pacific Classic meet the first-place finisher in the Kentucky Derby. That makes for an intriguing cast that includes Grade 1 winners MEDINA SPIRIT, IDOL and TRIPOLI. Three others in the -horse lineup are Grade 1-placed, namely MIDCOURT, TIZAMAGICIAN and EXPRESS TRAIN.

Pace:
Rail-drawn TIZAMAGICIAN should be contesting the front with MEDINA SPIRIT and perhaps STILETTO BOY and MIDCOURT. The pace looks above-average for a mile and one-eighth, but it's quality speed. A horse who can finish will have every chance to show his best.

Our Eyes:
The pending disqualification of MEDINA SPIRIT in the Kentucky Derby not only looms over his resume, but the 2021 racing season in general. That's for the courts. As horseplayers, we're left with the difficult and debatable decision of assessing and trusting the record of MEDINA SPIRIT and how it stacks up with his Awesome Again rivals. He's 2 for his last 5 on paper and has not run particularly fast in comparison to some of his older brethren in this field. Never a good work horse, his drill Sept. 17 was particularly concerning when running the entire lane with his head cocked outward and having to be asked to finish up. Soon after, Bob Baffert cancelled his plans to ship to Parx for the $1 million Pennsylvania Derby and cited the post draw in Philly. That seemed a weak alibi then, and after seeing the workout on video since, the training for MEDINA SPIRIT seems a much more viable reason. Now, 8 days later, MEDINA SPIRIT looked far better in his Sept. 25 drill at Santa Anita and was rather effortless in a nice move. Things suddenly turned around. What does it mean for Saturday? I suspect he'll run his race and we'll see if it's good enough. He's yet to win 2 in a row, and I'll be betting against him to do it here after taking the Shared Belief against fellow 3-year-olds. The price will be an underlay.

TRIPOLI ran down TIZAMAGICIAN over a mile and one-quarter in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar and now will be tasked with a similar assignment over 220 fewer yards. While that sounds more difficult, the pace of the Awesome Again should be quicker and give TIZAMAGICIAN harder work to do in establishing his early advantage. In terms of recent workouts seen at XBTV, it's a mismatch; TIZAMAGICIAN was pushed on down the lane to finish Sept. 26, while TRIPOLI looked like an absolute monster Sept. 19 in his all-important, next-to-last workout for this. He's in peak form.

Big 'Cap 1-2 finishers IDOL and EXPRESS TRAIN have more questions to answer than their rivals. IDOL had been idle since March and never has been poised with a major layoff in his career. He's at the end of his 4-year-old season with 6 career starts, so it's obvious he's been a physical challenge for trainer Richard Baltas. When he's good, he's very good. The workout tab is perfectly spaced over several months, so things have gone to plan, and it's plausible he could hit the Breeders' Cup on a second-off-the-layoff situation with a very fresh horse. A top 2 or 3 finish here could still accomplish that without winning. As for EXPRESS TRAIN, his sixth-place fun as the favorite in the Pacific Classic was disappointing. He doesn't usually finish robustly, so a fast pace here could see his chasing style flatten out in the stretch while looming a threat. He's 1-6 lifetime at Santa Anita, but has run well enough here that you can't blame the track.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
TRIPOLI is in outstanding form and looks to be holding it based on his morning training.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
MIDCOURT likely gets lost in the shuffle while making his second start of the year. He was third at 12-1 in this race last year to Improbable and Maximum Security, which could be considered a tougher edition than this.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$100 win TRIPOLI with the expectation that MEDINA SPIRIT's presence in the tote will help elevate our price a bit.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-02-2021, 06:57 AM

Matt Youmans

Notre Dame +2.5
Oregon State
Ole Miss +15
Arkansas +19
Wisconsin +1
Stanford +8
UCLA -3
LSU -3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-02-2021, 07:00 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

October 2, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
Yonkers Raceway has a rare Saturday night card scheduled for this evening. The features goes in Race 9, an Open Handicap Trot with a $48,000 purse. The $1 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 7, and that sequence will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7

2-Mostinterestingman (3-1)-Stepped-up to this class in last and faded late after being used early and was off 2 weeks. Willing to give this beaten even money chalk another chance.
6-No Mas Drama (4-1)-Drew poorly and didn't fair well versus top mares in Delaware. Back to the level of recent success. The last 2 starts at Yonkers versus this kind netted a win and a loss by a nose, best to respect.

Race 8

2-Walkinshaw N (5/2)-Recent form has been dull but this could be a drop and pop situation. Hasn't been in this cheap since 7-12 and that night, led gate to wire.
3-Ideal Star N (7/2)-Hasn't raced since 5-10, tuned up with a decent qualifier on 9-22 at PcD and this is a suspect field. This 7-year-old also drops to the level of his last picture at Yonkers which came on 2-23.
6-Our Majordan A (4-1)-New pilot tonight as Brennan takes a seat. Races better when put in play early in the mile. This looks like a spot to blast out to get on the engine and this is a driver that likes to play that way.

Race 9

3-Chaptima (9/2)-Has hit the board in 7 of 11 here with 5 pictures but hasn't been sharp recently. Has been bet in the last couple and couldn't finish off the mile. In the last 3 starts with Brennan between the pipes the trips have been bumpy. Looking for a smooth steer versus a beatable bunch.
6-Missippi Storm (7/2)-Has been trying hard and gets a post draw that could work well if Stratton can light this 6-year-old up to blast out. If gets the top, needs to get past #5, chances for success go up. Could be difficult to collar if leading turning for the wire.

Race 10

2-Lifeonthebeach A (9/2)-Back from M1 and drops into a nice spot to get top honors for the 1st time in 4 tries at YR. Two of the 3 starts have been versus better. This time Kakaley could provide an aggressive steer and be in the hunt at the wire.
3-Globaldomination N (7/2)-Has drawn the 8 hole in 3 of the last 4 and now starts inside which may better suit this grinders style. Drops to a spot to shine and has won 7 times in 25 starts at YR.
6-Sumthinboutim (5/2)-Recent form hasn't been great but was facing tougher and now gets some needed class relief. Brennan could leave and has the gate speed to land on the point at this level.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

2,6/2,3,6/3,6/2,3,6
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-02-2021, 07:01 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 10/2/21

October 2, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 6-Fluent; 10-Music Festival

Forecast: Let’s go with a couple of newcomers in the Saturday opener, a five furlong turf dash for juvenile fillies. Fluent shows a solid series of main track workouts that should have her plenty fit and ready and a pedigree that suggests she’ll be most effective on grass. The R. Mandella-trained daughter the South American champion Bal a Ball is a good mover with plenty of speed, so if she leaves with her field she should be in the fray throughout. Music Festival has trained like she owns plenty of early speed and looks like a very live item despite her extreme outside draw. The barn has modest stats with first-timers, but this daughter of Vancouver may prove the exception to the rule. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with ‘Festival, the quicker of the two, getting a slight preference on top.

Notable Workouts:
6-Fluent (Sept. 15, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3hg). Grade B-
In a team drill from gate with Roses R Blue and Billy’s Bet (4f, :47.4hg) and trailed early while being taken in hand, was asked for a bit of run midway on the turn and accelerated inside in sharp style to quickly close the gap on her workmates and then finish out nicely without ever really being asked for her best, splits of :24.1, :36 flat, :48.1 and 1:01 flat on our watches (galloped out six furlongs in 1:14.4h). Certainly not a flashy work but we liked the way she did it. Nice mover seems plenty fit.
View Workout Video

10-Music Festival (Sept. 25, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.3h). Grade B+
Tons best in training track drill with Pop Pop’s Dream (4f, :48h TT), breaking off a length in front and then finishing well clear at the wire without every being asked to show her best speed, final three furlongs in :35 flat. Quick-actioned filly looks like very much like a win-early sprint type for M. Puype and should be plenty fit by now. Very live at first asking.
View Workout Video

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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: X
Use: 3-Arthur Spooner; 4-Velvet Ghost

Forecast: Arthur Spooner has an improving pattern and a pedigree that should allow for another forward move in his first try around two turns. The Gemologist gelding has little to beat in this five-runner maiden claiming miler for juveniles and should be a very short price to graduate. Velvet Ghost shows up in a seller for the first time, switches to dirt, and makes his first start since being gelded. The son of Shaman Ghost received some play in both of his prior outings so maybe there’s some ability to work with that hasn’t been displayed so far. By default, he’s a contender. Arthur Spooner will get the main push in rolling exotic play but will have tickets using both in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.

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RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: X
Single: 2-Mo Forza

Forecast: The first three finishers in the Del Mar Mile S.-G2 meet again, and it won’t be surprising to see another bunched-up finish. Mo Forza, away for more than 10 months, came back as well as he left to produce an exciting turn of foot and secure the win close home, and if duplicate that performance today he should find a way to win his eighth race from his nine previous starts. The P. Miller-trained gelding picks up four lbs. off that win while major player Hit the Road, who finished third beaten a length behind our top pick, drops two, thus creating a six pound shift in the weights. Will it matter? Possibly, but we’ll stick with Mo Forza on top as a rolling exotic single.

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RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Big Novel; 6-Unwritten Code; 7-Kiss My Kat

Forecast: Big Novel, in the frame in both career starts and most recently a respectable third in the Generous Portion S. at Del Mar, returns to the maiden Cal-bred ranks and is the one to beat in this maiden six furlong dirt sprint for California-bred juvenile fillies. She’s a one-paced grinding type that must avoid trouble from the rail, so doesn’t qualify as a single in a race that has two first-time starters showing pretty good morning workouts. Kiss My Kat worked five furlongs from the gate in 1:00.1hg a couple of weeks ago while displaying decent speed, though she failed to change leads and may have suspect stamina. Unwritten Code looked fairly decent in a half mile gate work (:47.3hg) Sept. 19 that makes her a fit in this league. All three should be included in rolling exotic play with the main push going to Big Novel.

Notable Workouts
6-Unwritten Code (Sept. 20, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.3hg). Grade B-
In blinkers, did pretty well in gate drill with Star Entry (4f, :48hg) for J. Periban, never really asked much and proving best by a couple of lengths with splits of :23.3 and :47.3. Juvenile state-bred filly has enough natural speed to be dangerous at first asking in the proper spot.
View Workout Video

7-Kiss My Kat (Sept. 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1hg). Grade B-
Far in front of workmate Above Suspicion (5f, 1:01.4hg) from gate while displaying excellent speed for a California-bred juvenile filly by Curlin to Mischief, splits of :23.2 and :47 flat before galloping out five furlongs a bit slower than final time without changing leads. Plenty of zip but not quite sure how far she’ll carry it. Mulhall barn has excellent stats with first-time starters, for what it’s worth.
View Workout Video

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RACE 5: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Commander; 5-Unbridled Ethos; 8-Coulthard

ForecastThis Hillside Turf sprint for second-level allowance older horses came up fairly contentious with a number of legitimate possibilities. We’ll use three and hope that’s enough. Commander has developed into a genuine and consistent late-running turf sprinter and should thoroughly enjoy this unique course. First or second in nine of 18 career starts with strong, consistent speed figures that are better than par for this level, the P. Miller-trained gelding was nosed out in a similar event at Del Mar last time out and today gets an extra three-sixteenths of a mile to work with. With some help up front and clear run through the lane the son of War Dancer should be along in time. Unbridled Ethos has a similar late-running style that makes him quite dangerous over this course and distance. Third in the same race Commander finished second in, the son of Mizzen Mast encountered trouble at the head of the lane then got clear too late. With clear sailing today, he’ll be right there. Coulthard, perfect in two starts since being imported from Ireland but away since March, has trained like he’s plenty fit to resume where he left off and is guaranteed a clear run from his outside draw. The P. D’Amato-trained sophomore colt steps up in class while tackling older foes for the first time and he’s a tad shy in the speed figure department but if he can improve off the bench he’ll have a decent look at it.

Notable Workouts:
5-Unbridled Ethos (Sept. 26, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h TT). Grade: B+
Breezing in solo training track drill, final three furlongs in :11.4 and :35.4 looking quite nice. ON top of his game, should fire another big shot next time out.
View Workout Video

8-Coulthard (Sept. 20, Santa Anita, 4f, 48.3h TT). Grade B
In blinkers, coasting through the lane while slightly best over Hollywoodhellraisr (same time) for P. D’Amato, final three furlongs in :12 flat and :36 flat, plenty left. Coming back as well as he left and won his both local starts on grass in good style earlier this year.
View Workout Video

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RACE 6: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: X
Use: 3-Eight Rings; 4-Classier

Forecast: Trainer B. Baffert holds the aces in this five-runner second-level allowance two-turn event for older horse. Eight Rings, winner of the American Pharoah S.-G1 in 2019 over this track and distance but winless in the two years since, stretches out again and should find himself as the controlling speed, though stable mate Classier has a major say in the pace flow. The son of Empire Maker exits a series of graded stakes sprints and clearly is facing softer foes today and based purely on speed figures he should be capable of wiring the field. Classier, winner of the Los Alamitos Derby-G3 two runs back but winding up five lengths behind third-place finisher ‘Rings when winding up fifth in the Pat O’Brien S.-G2 last time out, gets Lasix for the first time, is reunited with “win rider” M. Smith and projects to enjoy an ideal stalking trip outside. A recent half mile bullet workout in :46.4h should have him on edge for a career top performance but on pure numbers he has some ground to make up. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Eight Rings.

Notable Workouts:
3-Eight Rings (Sept. 10, Del Mar, 5f, :59h). Grade: A-
Looked very much like his old self in this solo five furlong drill at Del Mar, final three furlongs in :35.1, breezing through the lane. May finally be coming around; is winless since his American Pharoah S.-G1. Ready to stretch out again and win.
View Workout Video

4-Classier (Sept. 10, Del Mar, 5f, :59.3h). Grade: B+
Cruise control in solo drill at Del Mar for B. Baffert, splits of :24 flat, :47.2 and :59.3 from the half mile pole to the 7/8 pole and pulled up six furlongs in 1:14.1 out to the six furlong pole. Ready for his best effort on the stretch out.
View Workout Video

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RACE 7: Post: 4:19 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Lincoln Hawk; 5-One Fast Bro

Forecast: Lincoln Hawk earned a career top number when a respectable fifth (beaten less than two lengths) in the Del Mar Derby-G2 last month and today shows up in a first-level allowance. Theoretically, this is a significant class drop but not really - he’s taking on older horses today, so the competition isn’t that much softer, if at all. The R. Baltas-trained colt won a maiden race over this course and distance in mid-June and is a better type now, so in a race that has plenty of early speed signed on the Irish-bred colt may be able to produce the last run with a trouble-free trip. One Fast Bro raced in heavy traffic much of the way, got clear inside the furlong pole and produced a good late kick when a fast-finishing but unlucky runner-up vs. similar at Del Mar last time out and with better luck today the son of Coil swill be in thick of it once again. The concern is that he’s winless in six starts over the Santa Anita turf course, but it appears he’s a better type now, so in a field loaded with pace types that will compliment his style the S. Ruiz-trained gelding is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. on top. In a very contentious affair, these are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but if you find the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.

Notable Workouts:
1-Lincoln Hawk (Sept. 25, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h TT). Grade: A-
Under a nice hold through the lane while finishing with a ton left, final half mile on training track in :23.4 and :47.1, outstanding. Holds his edge, will be dangerous with a return to the allowance ranks.
View Workout Video

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RACE 8: Post: 4:52 PT Grade: C
Use: 1-Dr. Schivel; 2-Vertical Threat; 4-C Z Rocket; 5-Flagstaff

Forecast: We’re going to use four of the six entrants in rolling exotic play in this year’s renewal of the Santa Anita Sprint Championship-G2 in a race that we’ll otherwise pass. The old pros Falstaff and C Z Rocket will get plenty of play and deservedly so, as both are more than capable of winning this type of event with their best effort. Falstaff always has liked the Santa Anita main track (four wins from nine starts) though he’s never been particularly fast on speed figures. C Z Rocket has been a beaten choice in his last three starts, the last two without the Lasix that he reportedly needs to show his best form (none of the entrants will be treated with the bleeder medication in this race). The P. Miller-trained gelding is nonetheless a major player and must be respected. Dr. Schivel defeated a similar field in the Bing Crosby S.-G2 at Del Mar, but a case could be made that the others ran down to his level, rather than vice-versa. The son of Violence never trains like much but seems to rise to the occasion when the money is down, and if he can secure a decent pace-stalking trip from his rail post the M. Glatt-trained colt should be in the thick of it. On paper, Vertical Threat seems in tough but he’s very possibly the controlling speed in a race that figures to produce soft early fractions. If he can clear early without pressure the son of Tapiture may get brave and never look back.

Notable Workouts:
1-Dr. Schivel (Sept. 25, Santa Anita, 5f, 59.4h). Grade: B-
In blinkers, picked him up five lengths behind Katerini (5f, 1:00.2h) at the quarter pole before the talented sprinting sophomore closed the gap under some coaxing to wind up a neck back at the wire, final quarter mile in :23.4. Not always the most willing worker but raises his game in the afternoon when it counts.
View Workout Video

2-Vertical Threat (Sept. 25, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h). Grade B+
Breezing inside Taishan (same time) for Baltas, never asked while winding up a neck in front at the wire, splits of :24.1, :35.4 and 1:00.3, very nice. Lightly-raced 4-year-old has never been better and will get tested for class in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship. Will fire his best shot.
View Workout Video

5-Flagstraff (Sept. 26, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.2h). Grade B-
Worked outside Divine Armor (same time) for J. Sadler and did well enough while stride-for-stride most of the way, eventually edging clear by a half-length at the wire, light coaxing only, final quarter mile in :24.4. Not always the most enthusiastic worker but seems to be holding his good form over a main track he’s always liked.
View Workout Video

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RACE 9: Post: 5:26 PT Grade: B+
Use: 4-Going to Vegas; 8-Luck

Forecast: Stable mates in R. Baltas’ barn should slug it out in this year’s edition of the Rodeo Drive S.-G1 over 10 furlongs on grass. Going to Vegas likely will inherit the lead in a race without pace and given that type of trip the daughter of Goldencents could take this field gate-to-wire. A winner of three of her last four starts including the Santa Ana S.-G2 in front-running style over this course and distance in the spring, she’s fast on numbers, thoroughly genuine and consistent, and has trained recently like she’s ready for yet another forward move. The Kentucky-bred but European-raced Luck is Baltas’ other major contender, and while she doesn’t quite have the resume of Going to Vegas she could easily be just as good. The lightly-raced (just five starts) daughter of Kitten’s Joy displayed plenty of promise early in her career in France and then was visually quite impressive in her U.S. debut when producing an electric turn of foot to defeat a first-level allowance field at Del Mar with a stakes-quality speed figure. Though the pace scenario may not be in her favor, she’ll love this 10 furlong trip and is another that has been highly impressive in the a.m. leading up to this event. We’ll give Going to Vegas a slight edge on top due to the projected race show but include both in our rolling exotics.

Notable Workouts:
4-Going to Vegas (Sept. 25, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h TT). Grade: B+
Solo training track drill while looking sharp as a tack, splits of :35.4 and :59.4, light late coaxing while coming home with plenty left. Maintains her edge.
View Workout Video

8-Luck (Sept. 22, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.3h TT). Grade: A-
Broke off a couple of lengths behind Disappearing Act (5f, 1:00h TT) and easily went on by in the final sixteenth while under a nice hold, a half-length best at the wire, final quarter mile in a terrific :23.3. Looks the part of a potentially high class long distance turf performer.
View Workout Video

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RACE 10: Post: 5:50 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Tizamagician; 7-Tripoli

Forecast: The first two finishers in the Pacific Classic-G1 face off again in this year’s renewal of the Awesome Again S.-G1, a pivotal West Coast prep race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic in four weeks at Del Mar. Tripoli, a thoroughly convincing winner over Tizamagician (pair well clear of the rest) at the seaside oval in mid-August, should enjoy a similar stalking trip and then have every chance to exert his superiority when the pressure is turned on from the quarter pole home. Bred for turf (Kitten’s Joy) but vastly improved since being switched to the main track, the J. Sadler-trained colt has trained as well as ever in recent weeks, so we’re expecting another top quality performance, one that should be good enough to win right back. Tizamagician is most effective as the controlling speed and from his rail post position seems certain to employ front-running tactics under regular rider F. Prat. The son of Tiznow earned a career top 103 Beyer speed figure when runner-up in the Pacific Classic and it’ll probably take something similar if not slightly better to turn the tables on Tripoli, but if not policed up front he R. Mandella-trained colt should make a race of it. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Tripoli on top.

Notable Workouts:
1-Tizamagician (Sept. 26, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02h). Grade: B
Broke off a length in front of Explosive (4f, :49.1h) and was ridden in the final furlong to open up approaching the wire before continuing out to 7/8 pole, not a “wow” work but good enough. Holds his form, pointing for the Awesome Again S.-G1, may be most effective as the controlling speed.
View Workout Video

5-Medina Spirit (Sept. 25, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.4h). Grade: B
Worked inside Ax Man (same time) for B. Baffert and went nicely (better than usual), while traveling out to the 7/8ths pole stride-for-stride, up in 1:13 flat on our watches, mild coaxing only. Appears back on the beam, will be facing older horses for the first time in the Awesome Again S.-G1.
View Workout Video

7-Tripoli (Sept. 26, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: B+
Much best in team drill with Dubbie Dubby (5f, 1:00.4h) and Bella D (5f, 1:02.1h) for J. Sadler, lengthening out nicely when let run inside the furlong pole, :24.1 from the top of the lane to the wire. Appears as good now as he was prior to his Pacific Classic-G1 win.
View Workout Video

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RACE 11: Post: 6:26 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Neptune’s Storm; 4-United; 6-Acclimate

Forecast: Several of these have the credentials to win this year’s edition of the John Henry Turf Champioship-G2; we’ll try to survive using just three, with a very slight preference on top to Neptune’s Storm. Primarily a miler, the P. Miller-trained Neptune’s Storm shows up in this 10 furlong event probably to avoid stable mate Mo Forza, the favorite and likely winner in the eight-furlong City of Hope Mile S.-G2 earlier on the program, but this distance might be within his range, over a turf course he loves and one that has a downhill run during the opening furlong. The son of Stormy Atlantic projects to enjoy an easy, ground-saving, stalking trip, and as a four-time winner over the local lawn the 5-year-old gelding should have every chance to pull off a mild surprise. United is clearly the one to beat, though he may have lost a step or two this year, having finished off the board in two of his last three starts when facing similar competition as the favorite. Still, the veteran son of Giant’s Causeway – a five time winner at Santa Anita and successful in nine of 21 career outings - always has to be respected. Acclimate does his best running on the front-end, and while there are other speed types in the field the P. D’Amato-trained gelding could be dangerous under these conditions if he can make the running without undue pressure. Give the possibility of that scenario, we will toss him in a few tickets in rolling exotic play.

Notable Workouts:
4-United (Sept. 23, Santa Anita, 7f, 1:25.3h). Grade: B
Best over Ivy League (6f, 1:13.2h) for R. Mandella, breaking off several lengths behind and then responding to urging through the lane to be a head in front at the finish before continuing out to 7/8 pole under urging, final six furlongs in :23.4, :36 flat, 1:01 flat and 1:13.2 on our watches. Workmanlike at best but prefers turf and seems in good enough shape.
View Workout Video

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-02-2021, 07:03 AM

Santa Anita Saturday Late Pick 4 Analysis & Selections

September 30, 2021 | By Johnny D

In case you hadn’t noticed, we’ve been away for the last two Thursdays. Then again, if you hadn’t noticed, chances are you’re probably not reading this now. As the kids these days say, ‘Whatever.’

The next two weekends are huge on the racing landscape. Breeders’ Cup Win and You’re In events, plus assorted other graded stakes races that serve as suitable preps for Del Mar-based championships dot the landscape from coast to coast.

The return of racing to Santa Anita always is a special occasion, made even more notable by the recent announcement that racing will return to the unique hillside turf course at about six and one-half furlongs. Fittingly, Friday’s Eddie D. stakes will break the seal on the re-invigorated downhill grass sprint course that actually plays more like a one-mile turf test. The stakes race is named in honor of Eddie Delahoussaye, a Hall of Fame jockey and one of the greatest riders in the history of the game. We had the pleasure of working around Eddie D. for years in Southern California and he’s as genuine a person as you’ll ever find; one of the best in an ‘80’s SoCal jockey colony that had so many fine riders that it was a living, breathing wing of racing’s Hall of Fame. Shoemaker, Pincay, Delahoussaye, McCarron, Hawley, Stevens, Pierce, Solis, and we just might be forgetting someone.

As a racing fan, it will be nice to tune in Friday and, hopefully, see Eddie D. in the Santa Anita winner’s circle greeting successful connections. As a horseplayer, it will be challenging to once more attempt to solve puzzles that unfold on a course that used to lay claim to the only right-hand turn in North American racing. Could still be true but that Kentucky Downs course has some funky corners to it.

Saturday we look forward to an outstanding afternoon of racing at Santa Anita, concluding with a Late Pick 4 that could offer twists and turns worthy of a best-selling novel. Medina Spirit, tainted Kentucky Derby winner, makes his second afternoon appearance since Preakness in the Gr. 1 Awesome Again stakes where he will meet elders for the first time. Is he up to the challenge or was there a more pressing issue for last week’s defection from the Pennsylvania Derby than merely a distasteful post position?

And what about United, the on again off again SoCal turf star who nearly won the ’19 BC Turf at 51-1 and then returned to finish eighth in the ’20 event? Is he ready to repeat as best in the John Henry Turf Championship and have another swipe at the BC Turf brass ring?

What about Luck, the filly not the ill-fated HBO show? Can she immediately parlay a first level allowance/$40k claiming Del Mar romp into a Gr. 1 Rodeo Drive title? It’s asking a lot, but she appears sharp as a knife.

Dr. Shivel, a 3-year-old who bested elders twice already this year, will attempt to do it again from the dreaded rail post position going six furlongs. Four-year-old Collusion Illusion, drawn outside in the field of six, seems ready to improve on his close third-place finish in the ’20 edition of the Santa Anita Sprint Championship.

Those are just some of the questions that will be answered Saturday in Santa Anita’s Late Pick 4. Below you will find one man’s humble opinion of how that wager might unfold, including a suggested Pick 4 ticket.

Happy opening weekend at The Great Race Place!

Race On!

Race 8
Santa Anita Sprint Championship
Grade 2 -- Six Furlongs
Three-Year-Olds & Upward

#1 Dr. Schivel is a 3-year-old, multiple Gr. 1 winner (Del Mar Futurity & Bing Crosby) seeking a fifth-consecutive triumph. He’s got the top jock Prat, which is nice, but he’s drawn the rail and that could be challenging. Note: this colt already has won from the Santa Anita inside post and his rating style should have him sitting just behind the early leaders. He’s as game as Dick Tracy with a pair of neck decisions in his last two, so he loves a fight. He’s worked steadily for this, including a best of 36 bullet five-eighths in :58 1/5 Sept. 4.

#2 Vertical Threat likes to ‘get it on’ right out of the gate and, for a grade 2 California sprint stakes, this field doesn’t have much early speed. Could the 4-year-old winner of 4 of 7 starts steal this one on the front end? He looked good winning the Russell Road at Charles Town last out and when romping at Mahoning Valley. He didn’t look so good when cooked up front in the Bing Crosby that went to #1 Dr. Schival, 21 lengths better than afternoon. That would be some reversal of fortune, for sure, but, if this colt can walk early…maybe.

#3 Colt Fiction is a 6-year-old who hits hard against allowance foes—fellow Calbreds and otherwise. He went wire-to-wire to win last out at Del Mar and is as good as he’s ever been. Can he duplicate that effort right back? Asking a lot.

#4 C Z Rocket was a mere neck behind #1 Dr. Schivel in the recent Bing Crosbly and barely missed in the Gr. 2 Pat O’Brien last out going seven furlongs. This gelding is now 7 but still gives it all he’s got. He’s not the dominating factor he was last year, but he’s still a ‘tough out’ with a pair of stakes wins, including a grade 2 at Oaklawn this winter. Will he get the early pace heat he needs to do his best in here?

#5 Flagstaff is a 7-year-old with 4 wins in 9 starts at Santa Anita. He’s probably better at 7 furlongs than at six where he’s won just 1 of 8 starts. Still, he’s remarkably consistent—been better than fourth in 10 of his last 12 starts, including 2 wins—both at seven furlongs. Last out he was a head behind #4 C Z Rocket for third in the Gr. 2 Pat O’Brien.

#6 Collusion Illusion loses the services of top jock Prat and picks up the hustling JJ Hernandez. This 4-year-old colt has won 5 of 10 lifetime, including 2 of 5 at Santa Anita and 3 of 5 at the distance. Off since last year’s Malibu Stakes, where he was third behind Charlatan and Saturday’s Awesome Again participant Express Train, he didn’t fire in an August turf sprint at Del Mar. With that race under his belt and this cozy post position, expect this guy to show something with blinkers added for the first time. At 3, he was third, beaten just over 1 length in this race last year when breaking from the rail. He has a bullet, best of 67, half-mile gate workout in :47 2/5 to conclude a series of 4 works every 7 days since his Del Mar turf outing.

Top Two: #1 Dr. Schivel, #6 Collusion Illusion
Reach: #2 Vertical Threat

Race 9
Rodeo Drive
Grade 1 – One Mile & One-Quarter (Turf)
Fillies & Mares Three Years Old & Upward

#1 Dogtag has finished second in here last 4 races and that just might be her fate again Saturday. She gamely chased #4 Going to Vegas home in the John C. Mabee last out but was making little headway in the final stages. That foe might again have a pace advantage in here and that will make this 5-year-old mare’s challenge difficult. She’s doing well, so expect another solid effort, but the pace picture seems against her. Joe Bravo takes over for Rispoli who moves to #4 Going to Vegas and the new jock might attempt to keep Dogtag closer in the early going. Still, if #4 Going to Vegas gets the kind of trip we envision, she’ll be very tough to catch.

#2 Fast Jet Court is a multiple Gr. 1 winner in her native Brazil. She’s had just one race stateside in the John Mabee at Del Mar when fourth, beaten nearly 4 lengths by #4 Going to Vegas and by over one length by #1 Dogtag. Improvement with a race under her belt might move her ahead of #1 Dogtag, but #4 Going to Vegas is going to be difficult to flip the script on.

#3 Neige Blanche is a 4-year-old filly that’s been pitched against some serious foes in US battles. Finally, she won the Gr. 3 Santa Barbara in May, just missed in the Possibly Perfect in June and then won the CTTOC last out at Del Mar. These seem like they ought to be tougher than what she’s been successful against most recently.

#4 Going to Vegas appears to have a pace advantage in here and that just might be enough to get her home on top. She’s been solid in her last two races when stalking a pacesetter, but she might have to make all the pace in here because there isn’t much early speed. That ought to be fine with this 4-year-old filly and jockey Rispoli who knows her well. She’s won 6 of 21 and 4 of 10 at Santa Anita with 3 seconds. She’s also been first and second in 2 tries at the distance. She’s the one to beat in here.

#5 Rideforthecause is a 5-year-old mare with 5 wins in 16 starts. She finished second to #3 Neige Blanche by a head in the Gr. 3 Santa Barbara and was nearly two lengths behind that foe last out in the CTTTOC. Time before that, she won the Possible Perfect over #1 Dogtag and #3 Neige Blanche. You get the idea that there’s not much separating this trio.

#6 Crystalle is a 4-year-old filly that will add blinkers for this race. She’s just 2 for 13 lifetime and hasn’t proven herself at this level since she finished second in the Gr. 2 Miss Grillo at Belmont two years ago. She’s started twice for current trainer Peter Miller and needs to do more.

#7 Magic Attitude in an interesting prospect. She ships here from the righthand coast abd ghas been training at Fair Hill for 21% conditioner Arnaud Delacour. This 4-year-old filly hasn’t been out since July 17 when outrun in the Gr. 1 Diana at Saratoga. She dominated the Gr. 2 Sheepshead Bay at Belmont in May and a repeat of that performance probably fits very well in here. She also won the Gr. 1 Belmont Oaks last year, solidly defeating #3 Neige Blanche, and was not disgraced in a pair of Group 1 tries in France. Don’t know if she’s ready to fire her best but her best would be very dangerous in here.

#8 Luck looked absolutely sensational in winning a first-level allowance/$40k optional claimer at Del Mar. Runner-up England’s Rose returned to win her next start at the same level. The win was this filly’s first US start off four races in France—2 wins, a second and a sixth against ungraded competition. It’s a huge step up in class Saturday for this 4-year-old filly, but she’s sharp and has trained well since Del Mar. She gets top jock Prat as he and Rispoli switch mounts—the latter moves to #4 Going in Vegas and Prat moves here.

#9 Red Lark just missed last out in the CTTTOC at Del Mar behind #3 Neige Blanche. Just 2 for 19 overall this one took the Gr. 1 Del Mar Oaks last year and hasn’t visited the charmed circle again since.

Pace Advantage: #4 Going to Vegas
Interesting Invader: #7 Magic Attitude
Sharp as Can Be: #8 Luck

Race 10
Awesome Again
Grade 1 –One Mile & One-Eighth
Three-Year-Olds & Upward

#1 Tizamagician is a 4-year-old colt with multiple Gr. 3 wins to his credit and a Gr. 1 placing last out when second to Tripoli in the Pacific Classic. Prat returns in the saddle for Mandella and this guy likes the SA oval—3 firsts, 4 seconds in 10 tries. He’s been raced at longer distances the last 5 times but has 1 second in one try at one mile and one-eighth over a ‘good’ track. He fits with these, has speed, the rail, the top jock, a Hall of Fame trainer and is a 4-year-old—so, there are many things to like.

#2 Midcourt hasn’t raced since June and has the credentials to be a factor in here. His vacation came following a dominant allowance win here at Santa Anita where he’s won 4 of 11 starts. He’s also 2 for 4 at the distance. Before that last score, he hadn’t won since Feb of 2020 when he went wire-to-wire to win the Gr. 2 San Pasqual. His workout pattern is spotty so, perhaps, he’s lost a step or two.

#3 Express Train failed as lukewarm 5/2 favorite at Del Mar in the Pacific Classic. #7 Tripoli and #1 Tizamagician finished one-two there. This 4-year-old colt is a multiple Gr. 2 winner and is twiced Gr. 1 placed. His best races are from just off the pace and he could be stalking #1 Tizamagician in the early going. He has just 1 win in 6 tries over the SA main, with 3 seconds and 1 third.

#4 Stilleto Boy is the Iowa Derby winner and one of 2 3-year-olds in the field. He’d need to run much better than he has in the past to win this.

#5 Medina Spirit is the current Kentucky Derby champ and the other 3-year-old signed on. Trainer Baffert skipped a date against fellow sophs last Saturday at Parx when this colt drew the 9-hole in the PA Derby. Funny reason to scratch from a $1 million race, but Baffert knew this one was on the docket and could be attacked from the colt’s own stall instead from across the country. Apparently, the older runners in Cali don’t scare Baffert too much. Medina Spirit is most effective when on the early pace and he’s probably quick enough to get to the front in here over #1 Tizamagician and #3 Express Train. All 4 of this colt’s losses are explicable because they either came against front-running shooting stars—twice to Life is Good and once to an uncontested Rock Your World—or when he came back too quickly in the Preakness. He’s the one to beat.

#6 Azul Coast is a 4-year-old from the Baffert stable who really hasn’t lived up to his early success. First out he won by 4, next out was second to Authentic in the Sham and then won the El Camino Real Stakes at Golden Gate. Four losses later, he won an optional claiming/allowance race at Del Mar last out.

#7 Tripoli upset the Gr. 1 Pacific Classic at 6.50-1 when just over a length better than #1 Tizamagician. It was the 4-year-old’s second win in 3 tries on dirt. The surface switch appears to have launched a new career for this colt and his last 3 races on the main have been strong. One back he finished right with #3 Express Train in the Gr. 2 San Diego Handicap. Low profile jockey TJ Pereira gets along with the colt well and probably will sit 3rd or 4th in the early going. He’s tough to ignore with a new lease on life.

#8 Idol is an interesting runner. He’s a 4-year-old with 3 wins in 6 starts, including an 9/2 upset of #3 Express Train and highly regarded Maxfield in the Gr. 1 Santa Anita Handicap in March. He’s steadily improved for trainer Richard Baltas and is lightly-raced, suggesting that there may be more in the tank. He’s worked every 7-8 days and has a bullet, best of 11, six-furlong move. If one thinks there’s more to Baffert’s PA Derby scratch of #5 Medina Spirit than just post position and, if one is also unimpressed with the rest of the local handicap division, this guy’s a legitimate option on the come.

One to Beat: #5 Medina Spirit
Most Likely to Beat Him: #7 Tripoli, #1 Tizamagician
Wild Card at a Price: #8 Idol

Race 11
John Henry Turf Championship
Grade 2 – One Mile & One-Quarter (Turf)
Three-Year-Olds & Upward

#1 Award Winner is a 5-year-old gelding with a 2-2 record at the distance and 2 wins and 2 seconds at Santa Anita. He’s got speed and will use it from the rail to get position. However, there’s plenty of other speed in here, so a wire-to-wire trip isn’t likely. His last 2 races at Del Mar weren’t his best, but he did win a Grade 2 at Santa Anita. A return to Arcadia might help and those who like him should get a price.

#2 Camino Del Paraiso is an 8-year-old Golden Gate invader who’s won 3 of his last 4—only loss coming at Del Mar with 3 wins up north. At 0-6 over the ‘Anita turf, he would be a surprise.

#3 Neptune’s Storm should add pace the race. He likes Santa Anita and never has been this distance. A mile is his best and he shouldn’t be able to steal away on the front end. He has some quality performances in his 5-year-old career, and he’s been training seriously at San Luis Rey for Del Mar’s top trainer Peter Miller. Might hang around for a piece under ‘Flo the jock.

#4 United is a 6-year-old gelding who loves Santa Anita and has 3 wins in 6 tries at the distance. Trainer Richard Mandella still is getting top performances from this guy and the work pattern suggests more is left in the tank. He’s the defending champ in here and with regular rider Prat up figures clearly as the one to beat. For some strange reason he seems to win every other race these days. Saturday fits into one of the ‘other’ races pattern.

#5 Ready Soul has improved since moving to the Phil D’Amato barn and has a win and close second against allowance foes in his last three races. He’s a 4-year-old and would need more improvement to win this but he’s probably got room to grow.

#6 Acclimate is a 7-year-old confirmed front-runner who will add early heat to this field. He’s pretty consistent with 3 seconds in 3 starts at the distance and he’s won 5 of 17 at Santa Anita. He’ll give you all he’s got for as long as he can. He’s usually a good bet to finish in the money; worse than third just four times in the last 12 starts.

#7 Master Piece is a 5-year-old ridgeling that has two races that fit but they were a year ago and in April. He’s faces Grade 1 foes in 3 of 5 US starts and just missed last out in the Gr. 2 Del Mar Handicap. He’ll appreciate a hot pace because he comes from well behind. He’s a bit of wild card in here.

#8 Count of Amazonia has 4 career wins and they all came over synthetic surfaces. The 4-year-old colt did run well last out in a Del Mar allowance race when lapped on #5 Ready Soul after a mile on grass. He would need to jump up considerably.

#9 Media Blitz is an improving 4-year-old from the Simon Callaghan outfit. He’s a bit interesting in here because he’s liable to be just off the early pacesetters. He owns a win and 2 seconds in 4 tries over the ‘Anita grass and a second in his only effort at the distance. He’s been working every 6 days for this and Callaghan is 23% off a layoff. Jockey JJ Hernandez rides and he’s got a win and a neck defeat with the son of Medaglia d’Oro. Sneaky exotic type.

#10 Red King got good last year at age 6 when he won an allowance race, a grade 3 and grade 2 stakes. Lately, he’s been close, but no cigar with 3 thirds in his last 5 races.

#11 Cupid’s Claws makes a first start for trainer Peter Miller and brings a 2 for 14 turf record into this. He’s 2 for 10 combined on dirt and synthetic and traded hands for $40-$50k this time last year.

#12 Friar’s Road is a 4-year-old who’s sharp off a first-level allowance win at Del Mar. He needs to improve quite a bit to win but he’s got room to grow. He was highly regarded last year when tried as a maiden in the Gr. 1 Santa Anita Derby. Turf specialist Rispoli returns and this one should be a big price. The post is no real help, but this guy could be coming around now at a big price in exotics.

#13 K P All Systems Go is a 4-year-old with a tough post and nothing really to suggest he can upset this field. He will be racing from off the pace, so he could pass some stragglers late.

Use: #4 United
Exotics: #3 Neptune’s Storm, #7 Master Piece, #9 Media Blitz, #12 Friar’s Road

$3 Late Pick 4 ($48)
Race 8
#1, #2, #4, #6
Race 9
#4
Race 10
#1, #5, #7, #8
Race 11
#4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-02-2021, 07:06 AM

Jon White: Hot Rod Charlie BC Classic Contender

September 30, 2021 | By Jon White
In light of his stellar performance in last Saturday’s $1 million Pennsylvania Derby, Hot Rod Charlie should be taken very seriously when he makes his next start in the Grade I, $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar on Nov. 6.

Ridden by Flavien Prat and trained by Doug O’Neill, Hot Rod Charlie won the Grade I Pennsylvania Derby in front-running fashion by 2 1/4 lengths as the 9-10 favorite. The Kentucky-bred Oxbow colt completed his 1 1/8-mile trip in 1:48.63.

Midnight Bourbon, conditioned by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, ran second at odds of 7-2. Americanrevolution, off at 8-1, finished third, 4 1/2 lengths behind Midnight Bourbon. Speaker’s Corner, the only other contestant in the field of eight sent away at under 10-1, ended up sixth at 7-2.

This race was not without controversy. Turning into the stretch, Hot Rod Charlie carried out Midnight Bourbon quite wide. There was a stewards’ inquiry into the incident. Ricardo Santana Jr., the rider of Midnight Bourbon, also lodged an objection against the winner.

After the stewards deliberated for approximately seven minutes, the original result was allowed to stand.

This, I believe, was a difficult call for the stewards. In my opinion, it could have gone either way.

I do not know the rules of racing in Pennsylvania. But if they are similar to the rules in California, Washington and Idaho -- three states in which I have been a steward -- I believe that my vote would have been for no change to the original order of finish. That’s based on my opinion that the incident did not cost Midnight Bourbon the opportunity for a better placing based on the many replays that I saw.

On the other hand, I can understand why Asmussen and many others believe that Hot Rod Charlie should have had his number taken down.

“Flavien Prat almost drops Midnight Bourbon for the second time,” Asmussen said in Parx’s Pennsylvania Derby stakes quotes. “My horse ran well. He survived.”

Asmussen was alluding to what happened when Hot Rod Charlie and Midnight Bourbon met in the Grade I, $1 million Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park on July 17.

In the Haskell, Hot Rod Charlie finished first by a nose. Mandaloun finished second, a whopping 18 3/4 lengths in front of Following Sea in third.

The stewards disqualified Hot Rod Charlie and placed him last “for causing Mandaloun to clip heels in midstretch,” as announced by Monmouth racecaller Frank Mirahmadi. When Midnight Bourbon clipped heels, he stumbled badly and unseated jockey Paco Lopez.

Mandaloun was elevated to first, Following Sea to second and Antigravity to third.

Hot Rod Charlie did not race between the Haskell and Pennsylvania Derby. Midnight Bourbon did.

Midnight Bourbon ran a heckuva race in defeat when he finished second, a neck behind Essential Quality, in the Grade I, $1.25 million Travers Stakes at Saratoga on Aug. 28.

According to Asmussen, there will be no Breeders’ Cup this year for Midnight Bourbon. The Kentucky-bred colt by two-time BC Classic winner Tiznow will be freshened for a possible start in the Grade I Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs on Nov. 26 and/or a 4-year-old campaign.

As for Hot Rod Charlie, it is on to the BC Classic. Hopefully, he will do a better job of running straight in that race as opposed to the Haskell and Pennsylvania Derby.

Coincidentally, or perhaps not, Hot Rod Charlie’s inability to maintain a straight path in the Haskell and Pennsylvania Derby coincides with O’Neill’s decision to have the colt race without blinkers in these two races after he had worn blinkers in six straight starts.

“I could tell ‘Charlie’ did not corner as well as he could,” O’Neill was quoted as saying. “Flavien had mentioned maybe putting [blinkers] on him again. He said he got a little distracted being on the lead, kind of looking around and that might have caused him not to corner as well as he could have.”

After Hot Rod Charlie lost the Haskell via DQ, it was extra sweet for his connections for him to get the first Grade I victory of his career in the Pennsylvania Derby.

“He has had so many hard-fought races and to not have a Grade I on his resume seemed so unfortunate for a horse as good as he is,” O’Neill said. “It’s good to finally get it.”

In the Grade I, $1.5 million Belmont Stakes on June 5, Hot Rod Charlie finished second, 1 1/4 lengths behind Essential Quality. Even though Hot Rod Charlie did not win the 1 1/2-mile classic, many recognized what a terrific race he ran that day to finish second despite running the first quarter-mile in :22.78. It was the fastest opening quarter in the history of the Belmont when contested at 1 1/2 miles. The Belmont was first run in 1867.

The excellence of Hot Rod Charlie’s Pennsylvania Derby performance is demonstrated by his 111 Beyer Speed Figure. It’s the highest Beyer of his career so far. Moreover, the 111 ranks as the top 2021 Beyer Speed Figure to date by a 3-year-old in a race at one mile or longer:

Below are the Beyers of 105 or higher by a 3-year-old this year at one mile or longer:

BSF Horse (Finish, Race, Track, Date)

111 Hot Rod Charlie (Won, Pennsylvania Derby, Prx, Sept. 25)
109 Essential Quality (Won, Belmont, Bel, June 5)
108 Hot Rod Charlie (2nd, Belmont, Bel, June 5)
107 Essential Quality (Won, Travers, Sar, Aug. 28)
107 Life Is Good (Won, San Felipe, SA, March 6)
107 Midnight Bourbon (2nd, Pennsylvania Derby, Prx, Sept. 25)
107 Midnight Bourbon (2nd, Travers, Sar, Aug. 28)

The only horse to record a higher Beyer Speed Figure than 111 in a race at a mile or longer this year is 5-year-old Knicks Go, who was credited with a 113 when he won the Grade III Cornhusker Handicap by 10 1/4 lengths at Prairie Meadows on July 2.

COMPARES FAVORABLY TO RECENT BC CLASSICS

I mentioned earlier that Hot Rod Charlie should be taken very seriously in the BC Classic. Keep in mind that the 111 Beyer that he was credited with in the Pennsylvania Derby is equal to or higher than the figure for the winner of the last three BC Classics, as shown below:

Year BC Classic winner (BSF)

2020 Authentic (111)
2019 Vino Rosso (111)
2018 Accelerate (105)

BIGGEST PA DERBY BEYER SINCE 2004

Hot Rod Charlie’s 111 Beyer last Saturday was the highest in the Pennsylvania Derby since Love of Money posted a 112 in 2004.

When Bayern won the 2014 Pennsylvania Derby by 5 3/4 lengths at odds of 7-2, he recorded a 110 Beyer. California Chrome finished sixth as the 9-10 favorite.

Bayern subsequently won the Grade I BC Classic that year.

Below are the Beyers for Pennsylvania Derby winners going back to 1992 (the figures are listed in the 2021 American Racing Manual, which is now digital only and available for free on The Jockey Club’s website):

2021 Hot Rod Charlie (111)
2020 not run
2019 Math Wizard (99)
2018 McKinzie (107)
2017 West Coast (107)
2016 Connect (103)
2015 Frosted (106)
2014 Bayern (110)
2013 Will Take Charge (105)
2012 Handsome Mike (93)
2011 To Honor and Serve (105)
2010 Morning Line (103)
2009 Gone Astray (104)
2008 Anak Nakal (100)
2007 Timber Reserve (105)
2006 not run
2005 Sun King (103)
2004 Love of Money (112)
2003 Grand Hombre (108)
2002 Harlan’s Holiday (96)
2001 Macho Uno (104)
2000 Pine Dance (105)
1999 Smart Guy (109)
1998 Rock and Roll (110)
1997 Frisk Me Now (114)
1996 Devil’s Honor (114)
1995 Pineing Patty (108)
1994 Meadow Flight (106)
1993 Wallenda (100)
1992 Thelastcrusade (107)

MONOMOY GIRL RETIRED FROM RACING

It was announced on Sept. 22 that two-time Eclipse Award winner Monomoy Girl, who played a significant role in trainer Brad Cox building a powerful stable, has been retired from racing.

The decision to retire Monomoy Girl was made after it was discovered the 6-year-old Kentucky-bred Tapizar mare had sustained an injury when training Sept 21 at Churchill Downs.

“She’s simply a remarkable mare and has meant the world to my career,” said Cox.

Monomoy Girl was voted a 2018 Eclipse Award as champion 3-year-old filly and another Eclipse Award in 2020 as champion older female.

According to Cox, Monomoy Girl came back a little off in her right foreleg following a routine gallop at Churchill on Sept. 20.

“We had it X-rayed and found a non-displaced fracture of the sesamoid,” BloodHorse quoted Cox as saying.

Cox added that the injury would not require surgery.

“She’s an unbelievable mare and will always hold a special place in my heart as our first [Kentucky] Oaks winner, Breeders’ Cup winner and champion,” Cox said. “She will go to Spendthrift to start her breeding career and I’m sure she’ll be an awesome mom.”

Monomoy Girl’s 2018 campaign was highlighted by victories in the Grade I Kentucky Oaks for 3-year-olds and Grade I Breeders’ Cup Distaff for 3-year-olds and up.

In my fantasy league, I had the No. 2 overall pick in the 2019 draft. Game Winner was taken at No. 1. I took Monomoy Girl at No. 2. Unfortunately, Monomoy Girl missed the entire 2019 racing season due to various issues.

When Monomoy Girl returned to competition in 2020, she won all four of her starts that year, capped by a second victory in the Grade I BC Distaff.

Monomoy Girl made two starts this year, both at Oaklawn Park. She won the Grade III Bayakoa Stakes by two lengths as a 1-5 favorite on Feb. 29. Monomoy Girl then finished second as a 7-10 favorite when she lost the Grade I Apple Blossom Handicap by a scant nose to Letruska on April 17.

Since the Apple Blossom, Letruska has reeled off three more graded stakes wins in succession. She took the Grade I Ogden Phipps Stakes at Belmont Park on June 5, the Grade II Fleur de Lis Stakes at Churchill on June 26, then the Grade I Personal Ensign Stakes at Saratoga on Aug. 28.

Letruska is scheduled to make her next start in Keeneland’s Grade I Spinster Stakes on Oct. 10.

Monomoy Girl won 14 of 17 lifetime starts while never finishing worse than second.

One of Monomoy Girl’s three career defeats came when she was disqualified from first and placed second in the Grade I Cotillion in 2018. Midnight Bisou was moved up to first in the 2018 Cotillion.

In all, Monomoy Girl and Midnight Bisou ran against each other four times. Monomoy Girl crossed the finish line first each time she competed against Midnight Bisou.

According to BloodHorse, Monomoy Girl’s total bankroll of $4,776,818 ranks her “as the fifth highest-earning dirt female of all time.” The five top dirt females of all time in earnings are listed below:

$7,471,520 Midnight Bisou
$7,304,580 Zenyatta
$6,156,600 Beholder
$4,811,126 Royal Delta
$4,776,818 Monomoy Girl

AMONG BEST OF 21ST CENTURY

Years ago for Xpressbet.com, I came up with my list of the Top 100 Racehorses of the 20th and 21st Centuries. I have tweaked the list from time to time. The inspiration was BloodHorse’s Top 100 Racehorses of the 20th Century.

Because we now are in the 21st year of this century, it’s become increasingly difficult to continually make room on my list of 100 to include racehorses from this century. Consequently, I now have two lists, one for the 20st century and another for the 21st century so far.

With Monomoy Girl having exited the racing stage for good, I decided to add her to my list of Top 25 Racehorses of the 21st Century so far. She is No. 25, replacing Xtra Heat.

I feel bad about taking Xtra Heat off the list. Xtra Heat was truly an outstanding sprinter, but I just believe Monomoy Girl is more deserving of being in the Top 25. One of the reasons I decided to add Monomoy Girl to the list at the expense of Xtra Heat is Monomoy Girl was able to win races on both dirt and turf. The first two victories of Monomoy Girl’s career came on the grass.

Below is my list of the Top 25 Racehorses of the 21st Century so far:

1. American Pharoah*
2. Zenyatta
3. Justify*
4. Curlin
5. Arrogate
6. Shared Belief
7. California Chrome
8. Rachel Alexandra
9. Barbaro
10. Tiznow
11. Wise Dan
12. Ghostzapper
13. Point Given
14. Invasor
15. Gun Runner
16. Beholder
17. Smarty Jones
18. Azeri
19. Lava Man
20. Goldikova
21. Bernardini
22. Rags to Riches
23. Candy Ride
24. Kona Gold
25. Monomoy Girl

*Triple Crown winner

Below is my list of the Top 100 Racehorses of the 20th Century (in parentheses, when applicable, is where the horse ranked on BloodHorse’s list of the Top 100 Racehorses of the 20th Century):

1. Man o’ War (1)
2. Secretariat* (2)
3. Citation* (3)
4. Kelso (4)
5. Spectacular Bid (10)
6. Native Dancer (7)
7. Dr. Fager (6)
8. Seattle Slew* (9)
9. Count Fleet* (5)
10. Affirmed* (12)
11. Ruffian (35)
12. Swaps (20)
13. Forego (8)
14. Phar Lap (22)
15. Buckpasser (14)
16. Damascus (16)
17. Round Table (17)
18. Seabiscuit (25)
19. War Admiral* (13)
20. Tom Fool (11)
21. Colin (15)
22. John Henry (23)
23. Regret (71)
24. Exterminator (29)
25. Whirlaway* (26)
26. Sunday Silence (31)
27. Cigar (18)
28. Nashua (24)
29. Alydar (27)
30. Easy Goer (34)
31. Alysheba (42)
32. Bold Ruler (19)
33. Personal Ensign (48)
34. All Along (68)
35. Equipoise (21)
36. Gallant Fox* (28)
37. Sysonby (30)
38. Gallant Man (36)
39. Assault* (33)
40. Armed (39)
41. Sir Barton* (49)
42. Northern Dancer (43)
43. Omaha* (61)
44. Ack Ack (44)
45. Discovery (37)
46. Majestic Prince (46)
47. Arts and Letters (67)
48. Stymie (41)
49. Challedon (38)
50. Pan Zareta
51. Noor (69)
52. Busher (40)
53. Gallorette (45)
54. Coaltown (47)
55. Sword Dancer (53)
56. Grey Lag (54)
57. Devil Diver (55)
58. Dahlia (50)
59. Zev (56)
60. Ta Wee (80)
61. Twilight Tear (59)
62. Riva Ridge (57)
63. Native Diver (60)
64. Holy Bull (64)
65. Precisionist
66. Inside Information
67. Shuvee (70)
68. Twenty Grand (52)
69. Skip Away (32)
70. Sham
71. Alsab (65)
72. Lady’s Secret (76)
73. Genuine Risk (91)
74. A.P. Indy
75. Landaluce
76. Silver Charm (63)
77. Susan’s Girl (51)
78. Cicada (62)
79. Go for Wand (72)
80. Slew o’ Gold (58)
81. Bald Eagle (74)
82. Exceller (96)
83. Tim Tam
84. Top Flight (66)
85. Manila
86. Johnstown (73)
87. Lure (85)
88. Princess Rooney
89. Two Lea (77)
90. Gallant Bloom (79)
91. Miesque (82)
92. Eight Thirty (78)
93. Fort Marcy (86)
94. Hoist the Flag
95. Cougar II
96. Gamely (87)
97. Carry Back (83)
98. Ancient Title
99. Bayakoa (95)
100. Formal Gold

*Triple Crown winner

MEMORIES OF PLAYFAIR RACE COURSE

My late father told me many times that his favorite season was the fall. One of the main reasons for this is it’s when the most important races of the year would be run at Playfair Race Course in Spokane, Wash.

When I was growing up, I too very much looked much looked forward to the time of year when the Spokane Futurity, Spokane Derby and Playfair Mile would be contested.

I look back fondly as to those races of my youth. It’s hard for me to believe, but it was 50 years ago when those three races were won by Charity Line, Dynamite Pat and Fleet Ahead.

Charity Line, ridden by Richard Wright, won the 1971 Spokane Futurity. Wright passed away not too long ago. Wright’s son Blaine is a successful trainer in Northern California. Blaine also finished third in the final trainer standings at this year’s Emerald Downs meeting that was adjourned last Sunday.

Charity Line, I still recall, was a half-brother to Hope Line, who won the 1968 Spokane Futurity. I was on hand to see both Hope Line and Charity Line win the Spokane Futurity. Charity Line went on to win the 1972 Spokane Derby under Ken Doll, one of the three stewards at this year’s Emerald meet.

Ronald Chapple rode Candy’s Tuff Stuff to his victory in the 1971 Spokane Derby. Chapple later won a race at Playfair for the Media Madness Stable aboard Candy’s Tuff Stuff on July 23, 1978. Media Madness was the stable group I formed in 1977 consisting of eight members of the Spokane media. How do I recall the exact date of that win by Candy’s Tuff Stuff? I still have the winner’s circle photo from that race.

Fleet Ahead, piloted by Johnnie Hathaway, won the 1971 Playfair Mile as a filly outrunning males. Ruler’s Whirl finished second. The year before, Ruler’s Whirl carried 121 pounds and won the Playfair Mile by a neck over Pacific Northwest superstar Turbulator, who was burdened with 138 pounds. To this day, no horse has ever carried as much as 138 pounds in a non-restricted stakes race at a track in Washington.

In 1972, Fleet Ahead came within a whisker of spoiling a very important bet that I had made.

I had waited and waited and waited to find what I considered to be the right race to make my first $100 wager. I did not care about how low the odds might be. I just did not want to lose my first $100 bet.

I decided to put $100 to win on Turn to Fire in the Fashion Handicap at Longacres on May 28, 1972.

Turn to Fire had been a star at Longacres in 1971 as a 3-year-old filly when she won a number of stakes races outside her division. She captured both the Fashion Handicap and Belle Roberts Handicap against her elders. She also won the Tacoma Handicap when beating the boys.

Many had hoped to see Turn to Fire take on the top 3-year-old male at Longacres in 1971, Rock Bath, in the Longacres Derby. But “leg ailments” forced Turn to Fire out of action in mid-summer of 1971, “negating hope for an encounter with Rock Bath in the Derby,” according to a story on the filly in the February 1972 edition of The Washington Horse magazine.

Turn to Fire went back into training in the spring of 1972 at Golden Gate Fields.

“Trainer Troy Taylor started his chestnut charge four times at Golden Gate,” The Washington Horse story continued. “Though racing with such speedy distaffers as Ribula and Veneke, Turn to Fire returned to the winner’s circle twice and finished second and third in her other two starts.

“So there was very little genuine surprise when, on May 28, Turn to Fire and stablemate Batita Princess jumped off the tote board at 3-10 odds. The occasion was the 25th running of the Fashion Handicap.”

Fleet Ahead was who I feared the most. But based on Turn to Fire’s 1971 record and spring form at Golden Gate, I did not think she would have any problem defeating Fleet Ahead and everyone else in the 1972 Fashion.

Though the race took place 49 years ago, I still vividly recall how sweaty my palms were as the fillies and mares reached the starting gate. I watched the race while standing in front of the grandstand near the winner’s circle with my father.

As expected, Batita Princess and jockey Richard “Tex” Hollingsworth took the early lead. Fleet Ahead, with Jack Leonard in the saddle, stalked in third on the backstretch. Turn to Fire, with regular rider Larry Pierce in the irons, raced in fourth early.

Batita Princess zipped the opening quarter in :21 4/5 and half in :44 4/5. Entering the stretch, she led by 1 1/2 lengths. Turn to Fire still was fourth and had yet to begin rallying. I was starting to get very concerned.

At the eighth pole, Batita Princess had a 1 1/2-length advantage, but Fleet Ahead now was closing in on the leader. Turn to Fire? She was still fourth. It was beginning to look like maybe Turn to Fire was not going to fire on this day. I suddenly realized that probably my best hope to cash my first $100 wager would be if Batita Princess could stay in front all the way to the finish to save the day for me.

Out of pure desperation, during the stretch run, I started rooting for Batita Princess to bail me out. But even that backup plan went down the drain when Fleet Ahead came on to take the lead in the final furlong. My heart sank. I thought my $100 wager was dead for sure.

But then Turn to Fire unleashed a furious late charge. Somehow, she turned what had seemed certain defeat into being involved in a photo finish for the win with Fleet Ahead.

I looked at my dad.

“Who won?” I asked.

He shrugged his shoulders, saying, “I don’t know.”

It was that close. We both thought it might even be a dead heat.

Turn to Fire was No. 1A. Fleet Ahead was No. 2. Finally, after what seemed to be an eternity, the “photo” sign came down. And then the numbers were posted on the tote board:

1st 1A
2nd 2
3rd 1
4th 6

Thank goodness, Turn to Fire had eked out a nose victory. For my $100 wager, I made just a $30 profit. But, again, the most important thing to me was not losing my first $100 bet. For me to win this important wager, especially in such dramatic fashion, is a memory that I cherish to this day.

THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL

The order of the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll is unchanged from last week. The Top 10 is listed below:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 333 Knicks Go (20)
2. 312 Letruska (6)
3. 304 Essential Quality (10)
4. 166 Gamine
5. 152 Maxfield
6. 133 Max Player
7. 112 Domestic Spending
8. 105 Jackie’s Warrior
9. 85 Malathaat
10. 58 Silver State

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-02-2021, 07:08 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Charles Town - Race #2

#4 Cowboy At Heart	He moves into a solid barn while making his local debut, and I think he has a chance to run well here despite a couple of dull dirt efforts in Florida. He worked a bullet in the leadup to this.
#2 Dr. Rusty Raymond	He's a pretty consistent type, but he also tends to run into a horse or two that are a bit too sharp for him, and he's probably going to be a short price with these.
#5 Barnstorm	He's surely along too late with these, but he did run okay in a couple of local races at this trip before the Colonial duds. Price underneath?
Race Summary	Rail runner El Fenomeno is another likely underlay with a chance, so I'll hope for a decent enough price as the likely third choice with Cowboy At Heart. His local drill offers a bit of hope for dirt improvement.

Charles Town - Race #5

#5 Omega Gold	Mountaineer invader needs to prove he classes up with the locals, but he has a little bit of sprint pace in a race that mostly lacks it. Wonder if he can lead the way and get brave at this shorter two-turn trip.
#6 Bright Dawn	He looks like a main player in here, but there is almost no way he offers a price that's fair relative to his chances to win this. Local form is spotty.
#1 Ishihara	He returns as a gelding after a dull run in June, and something like that solid two-back run might be good enough to land this.
Race Summary	Omega Gold is worth a look while likely up on the splits, and the other listed pair are likely to be underlaid on the board, while the Mountaineer shipper might land a mild surprise.

Charles Town - Race #7

#3 Company Clown	He ran really well in his first try here, and he proved he was a good fit with some decent company in that allowance spot. Best stuff might do here at a decent price.
#8 Storm Boarder	Yes, he's in a much more dangerous barn right now than he was when he made his only local start, but it was one of his slowest races in recent times. He likely wins this, but let's take a small shot against him over this footing.
#1 Strong Like Bull	Speed will have to go from the inside, and he faded late after opening a big lead into the lane with similar last time out. He might hang around again late for a piece.
Race Summary	Company Clown is interesting enough into the teeth of what is sure to be a short price on the very logical Storm Boarder. If that guy brings anything like his last two, he wins this for fun, but I'll make him beat me once over the local ring at an odds-on offering.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-02-2021, 07:09 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Northfield Park - Race #2

#4 SQUEEZE THIS	Hasn't won much lately but she hold tactical edge in weak field.
#5 BRAMBLE ON	Takes magnified class drop, will be running late.
#1 MJ'S REFLECTION	Chased fleet-footed fave, was backing up when traffic jam hit.
Race Summary	Squeeze This was parked out early from post 9 through fast fractions and gave way. She can maximize her speed in this spot and will have no excuse to not enhance her poor record this year. Play 4-1 and 4-5 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1

#1 BESTSELLER HANOVER	Gets class relief, moves outside in for third start of cycle.
#7 LADY ARTHUR	Top earner this year in talented field, finished second in three straight.
#2 BETTER BE DONNA N	Drops, gets favorable post, seeks 25th victory in 98th start.
Race Summary	Bestseller Hanover, no factor from post 8 in her last two starts against better, is a good fit at this level and draws the rail. She will need her A-game in a field that averages $240,000 in earnings. Bet on her to win and place.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #5

#5 JM JACK OF HEARTS	Benefits from livelier pace, can mount winning rally.
#2 ROCKME ROLLME	Rallied first-over in crowded field, beaten fave in prior pair.
#9 DEAN B HANOVER	Blew past field as the favorite, takes class hike, starts from post 9.
Race Summary	JM Jack of Hearts, aggressively driven to victory two back, rallied mildly from post 10 in latest. He can settle off a projected lively pace and launch a contending rally tonight at a tempting price. Play 5-2 and 5-9 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-02-2021, 07:09 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #8

#5 Flagstaff	Swung very wide into the stretch and lost some late punch because of it; does his best from just off the pace and can make a late run in this short field.
#4 C Z Rocket	Won this race by a head over Flagstaff last year and just doesn't want any bad ones; was second in the G2 Pat O'Brien (behind Ginobili) and a head in front of Flagstaff.
#1 Dr. Schivel	Sophomore has done well with wins over older rivals last time in the G1 Bing Crosby and in an optional allowance at Santa Anita. Can benefit from the inside run.
Race Summary	Flagstaff has good late energy and can close well in a race that doesn't have many in it but it outstanding nonetheless.

Santa Anita - Race #9

#8 Luck	Closed strongly against a slow pace and was a going-away winner in her first U.S. start after taking two of three in France; Prat can have her moving well in this 1 1-4th-mile test.
#4 Going to Vegas	Stablemate of Luck has won three of her last four and can carry her speed a long way; clearly a big player here.
#7 Magic Attitude	Was sixth in the super-strong G1 Diana Stakes and she has been very competitive in several other top races.
Race Summary	Luck was very sharp last time when the pace was against her, and her ability to adjust is good enough to get her to the winner's circle here.

Santa Anita - Race #9

#8 Idol	Makes his first since March when he closed strongly for a win in the G1 Santa Anita Handicap; he's only had six career starts but took very little time to establish that he's an elite runner.
#7 Tripoli	Has made an amazing step up the class ladder and posted a clear win in the G1 Pacific Classic last out; believe him.
#5 Medina Spirit	If you need an excuse to try to beat him, try the fact that he's won one of four Santa Anita starts (with three seconds). Kentucky Derby winner took the Shared Belief last out. Will face older rivals for the first time.
Race Summary	Idol won the Big Cap in just his sixth lifetime start and probably cannot get a better pace setup than what he'll probably get here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-02-2021, 07:18 AM

Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Vanderbilt -14½ over Connecticut