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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 371089

    #1

    Saturday 10/9/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

    Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

    NFL
    http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football

    College Football
    http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football

    Baseball
    http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball

    College Basketball
    http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball

    NBA
    http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball

    NHL
    http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey
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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 371089

    #2
    Free Winners for Saturday, October 9th 2021 from THE LEGEND!
    FREE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS
    Texas Tech @ TCU
    TIME: 7:00 PM EST
    PICK: Bet OVER 62.5 @ Bovada
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 371089

      #3
      Saturday, October 9th, 2021 from VEGAS BLACK CARD CLUB!FREE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS
      Middle Tenn St @ Liberty
      TIME: 3:30 PM EST
      PICKS: BET OVER 58 @ BOVADA
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      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 371089

        #4
        Totals4U

        Thursday's Free Selection: SMU Mustangs/Navy Midshipmen over 55 1/2 (Plays on Saturday)
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        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 371089

          #5
          #1 Sports

          Thursday's Free Play: SMU Mustangs - 13 1/2 (Plays on Saturday)
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          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 371089

            #6
            High Stakes Syndicate

            Free Selection for Thursday: Liberty Flames - 19 1/2 (Saturday, Oct 9th)
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            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 371089

              #7
              Gulfstream 5 Facts | October 4-10, 2021

              October 5, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

              Schedule:

              Thursday-Sunday (12:50 pm ET daily post)

              Carryovers:

              $314,171 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot ($450,000-guaranteed pool Thursday)

              $3,881 // Super High 5

              Feature Race(s):

              No stakes scheduled.

              Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

              Avg. Speed Last 3 (26%, +$3.60)

              Best Speed Today’s Distance (29%, +$2.80)

              Trainer Current Year (22%, -$14.00)

              Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

              T: Michael Yates // last week 3: 2-0-1 (67%, $6.53 ROI) // $17 and $22 maiden sprint wins

              T: Saffie Joseph Jr. // last week 6: 3-1-1 (50%, $2.25 ROI) // 10-27 over past 3 weeks

              T: Jorge Delgado // last week 4: 2-0-1 (50%, $3.43 ROI)// wins at $11 and $15

              J: Edwin Gonzalez // last week 15: 4-4-2 (27%, $1.15 ROI) // 5: 3-1-1 on favorites + $20 topper

              J: Miguel Vasquez // last week 20: 5-3-3 (25%, $1.04 ROI) // 3-3 favorites // wins for 5 different barns

              ** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**
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              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 371089

                #8
                Laurel Park 5 Facts | October 4-10, 2021

                October 5, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

                Schedule:

                Thursday-Sunday

                Carryovers:

                $3,057// Rainbow 6 Jackpot

                Feature Race(s):

                No stakes scheduled.

                Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

                Avg. Speed Last 3 (28%, -$2.40)

                Last Purse (25%, +$37.00)

                In The Money % (25%, -$18.20)

                Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

                J: Horacio Karamanos // last week 18: 6-3-0 (33%, $2.39 ROI) // wins include $24, $32 upsets // wins for 6 different trainers

                J: Jorge Ruiz // last week 15: 4-03 (27%, $1.46 ROI) // wins at $5, $8, $12, $15

                T: Mike Trombetta // last week 9: 3-1-1 (33%, $1.02 ROI) // 2-3 with favorites // all 3 wins maiden claiming sprinters

                T: Kelly Rubley // last week 5: 2-0-2 (40%, $5.44 ROI) // $11 and $44 scores with 9-1, 11-1 thirds

                T: Mike Stidham // last week 4: 2-1-0 (50%, $1.88 ROI) // wins at $6, $8 adding 6-1 runner-up // both wins maiden special weight

                ** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**
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                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 371089

                  #9
                  Santa Anita Park Stats | October 4-10, 2021

                  October 5, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

                  Schedule:
                  Friday-Monday (Columbus Day holiday)

                  Carryovers:

                  $170,377 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot

                  $9,752 // Super High 5

                  Feature Race(s):

                  $70,000 Swingtime Stakes // Cal-bred turf milers // Saturday

                  Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

                  Lifetime Earnings (45%, +$14.00)

                  Best Speed Last 3 (42%, +$5.60)

                  In The Money % (30%, -$1.80)

                  Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

                  J: Flavien Prat // last week 24: 7-8-3 (29%, $0.77 ROI) // 5-12 with Peter Miller & Richard Mandella // 5 wins turf

                  T: Richard Mandella // last week 10: 3-1-4 (30%, $1.37 ROI) // wins at $4, $4 and $18 – added 12-1 third

                  T: Mike Puype // last week 5: 2-0-0 (40%, $1.80 ROI) // $5, $12 scores both in maiden turf sprints

                  T: Bob Baffert // last week 13: 5-1-0 (38%, $0.66 ROI) // 5-6 with favorites // 3-3 with John Velazquez // 3 stakes wins

                  T: John Sadler // last week 7: 2-3-0 (29%, $0.77 ROI) // $4, $6 wins with maidens // 0-4 stakes all at 7-1 or less

                  ** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**
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                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 371089

                    #10
                    AI Picks: SA, Kee, Bel Stakes | Saturday, Oct. 9, 2021


                    October 8, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
                    It’s another big Saturday of national stakes races, and to assist your handicapping, key stakes selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.

                    You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app. We’ve included the official track morning line odds with each runner.

                    //

                    Belmont Park // Race 7 // 3:47 pm ET // Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic // 1-1/2 miles (turf)

                    #3 Gufo (8-5) // 30%W
                    #5 Cross Border (8-1) // 18%W
                    #2 Arklow (6-1) // 18%W
                    #4 Rockemperor (10-1) // 10%W

                    //

                    Keeneland // Race 9 // 5:15 pm ET // Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity // 1-1/16 miles

                    #1 Double Thunder (4-1) // 20%W
                    #5 Don’t Wait Up (9-2) // 14%W
                    #13 Classic Causeway (5-1) // 12%W
                    #12 Kevin’s Folly (12-1) // 10%W

                    //

                    Santa Anita Park // Race 7 // 7:08 pm ET // Swingtime Stakes // 1 mile (turf)

                    #5 Brooke (4-1) // 26%W
                    #7 Norma Jean B (6-1) // 17%W
                    #10 Quiet Secretary (6-1) // 14%W
                    #6 Ellie Arroway (15-1) // 9%W
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                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 371089

                      #11
                      Race of the Week: First Lady at Keeneland | Saturday, October 9


                      October 7, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
                      $400,000 GRADE 1 FIRST LADY STAKES AT KEENELAND

                      The Lead:
                      Keeneland's Fall Stars Weekend boasts stakes throughout its 3-day opening week, and Saturday's card is absolutely stacked. A trio of Grade 1 races fill the marquee, and we'll focus our attention on Race 8, the Grade 1 First Lady at a mile on grass. Trainer Chad Brown seeks a personal four-peat in this event and will have multiple chances to land it.

                      ​Field Depth:
                      Grade 1 winners in the lineup include ALTHIQA, HARVEY'S LIL GOIL, VIADERA, ABSCOND and EMPRESS JOSEPHINE (Ireland) . REGAL GLORY, BLOWOUT and PRINCESS GRACE have scored at the Grade 2 level. This is a high-class bunch not welcoming to a big class riser.

                      Pace:
                      BLOWOUT is pure turf speed and knows only one way, the front. She'll have company from DALIKA, who may not be as naturally quick, but will have to be sent hard from post 11 in this mile configuration. Those two are quality speed, while it appears few others will be interested in early engagement. The bulk of this field wants to sit mid-flight or farther back. A deep closer could be compromised.

                      Our Eyes:
                      ALTHIQA looks to continue a big-time run for trainer Charlie Appleby's Godolphin raiders to the US. She won the Just a Game and Diana in Grade 1 company at Belmont and Saratoga on separate raids this summer. The Godolphin ace trainer since added 3 Grade 1 victories at Woodbine and the inaugural $1 million Jockey Club Derby at Belmont for quite the autumn turn in North America. While familiar US course pilots Mike Smith and Manny Franco handled the controls in her previous 2 domestic wins, Jamie Spencer partners this time from overseas. I'm not wild about that as Spencer has had his share of riding foibles in the US, though has balanced the ledger at 15% (6-40) since 2015. The third trip across the pond since June raises a touch of concern. Still, she's the filly to beat, but if you didn't get her at 7-1 or 7-2, Saturday at something closer to 7-5 won't be appealing.

                      EMPRESS JOSEPHINE also travels stateside and will provide yet another Coolmore vs. Godolphin clash. This Aidan O'Brien-trained sophomore upset the Irish 1000 Guineas in May, but has dropped 3 straight. She's impeccably bred by Galileo and out of Lillie Langtry, who was a multiple Group 1 winner of $1.5 million. The dam flopped in her only US bid when up the track as the favorite in Santa Anita's 2019 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. O'Brien saddled 3 Breeders' Cup champions over this Keeneland turf course between the 2015 and 2020 events.

                      The 11 domestic challengers include 3 from Chad Brown, who aims for a record-padding fifth win in the First Lady. REGAL GLORY, BLOWOUT and VIADERA made up his trifecta. BLOWOUT will take them as far as she can on the front, coming in fresh in just her third start this year after only a trio of starts in 2020. But she picks up 6 pounds off her last 2 efforts and every bit counts when the gas tanks begins to empty. VIADERA won the Grade 2 Ballston Spa at Saratoga by a nose last out and has won 4 of her last 5. But note winning margins of a nose, nose, neck and neck...and there's no margin for error as she gives ground from a dastardly post 13. Brown's best chance projects to be REGAL GLORY, who dropped in class for a victory last time after finishing fourth to ALTHIQA in the Just a Game at Belmont. The key to that loss, which came by 3-1/2 lengths, very well could have been the course configuration. She has not been nearly as effective in 1-turn races as she has in 2-turn races. Look for the layout at Keeneland to boost the stock of REGAL GLORY.

                      PRINCESS GRACE has but a half-length runner-up finish on her resume from being perfect through 7 starts. Mike Stidham and the owners have done a masterful job campaigning her at 7 different venues. She makes her first-ever return trip anywhere, coming back to Keeneland where she won last October's Valley View vs. 3-year-olds. This will be far and away the toughest field she's ever faced.

                      As for the balance of the field, HARVEY'S LIL GOIL won the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup here last Fall against then-fellow sophomores. She's just 1-4 this year against elders and looked to be training superbly prior to her last few Saratoga starts and failing to deliver in the afternoon. She should get a good trip just behind the pair of confirmed speedsters, so perhaps that can right her fortunes.

                      Most Certain Exotics Contender:
                      ALTHIQA should deliver on her last 2 victories with another contending finish. Even if a bit comes off her best, she should light the board.
                      ​​
                      Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
                      DADDY IS A LEGEND has a strong Keeneland record and trainer George Weaver's barn has been hot in recent weeks in New York. ALTHIQA only beat her by 2-1/2 lengths at Belmont, and perhaps the course at Keeneland can make up the difference in her favor.

                      Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
                      $40 win REGAL GLORY. $20 exacta box REGAL GLORY and ALTHIQA ($40). $10 exacta part-wheel REGAL GLORY and ALTHIQA over DADDY IS A LEGEND ($20).
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                      • Can'tPickAWinner
                        Super Moderator
                        • Nov 2012
                        • 371089

                        #12
                        Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Early Pick 5 Analysis


                        October 9, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
                        Tonight, Ontario Sires Stakes action is featured on the 12-race Woodbine Mohawk card. The Early 0.20 Pick 5 kicks-off the program. The sequence has a $100,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.

                        Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

                        Race 1

                        1-Wind Blown (3-1)-Drops back to a level for success. Does the best work racing near the top of the stack and Henry should have no issue getting there.
                        4-Highlandbeachlover (5/2)-Gets a ++ driver change with JMac getting the call tonight. Only 4 for 42 in the past 2 years but should be in the mix versus this group. The pilot change could be the difference.
                        5-Lets Get Pickled (8-1)-Filion sat behind this 5-year-old last week and the effort was better than the line looks. Ran into a sharp winner and did pace the 2nd half in 54.1. Should be forwardly placed and has a shot for an upset at a price.
                        8-The Greek Freak (4-1)-Dropped to this level in last and Roy had the pedal down. Did get on the point but faded late. This is another who has trouble winning, 1-16 in 2021, but best to respect here.

                        Race 2

                        3-Portofino (5/2)-Winner of 2 straight made its debut in September and finished 2nd twice. The last 2 starts have been dominating wins and right now looks a cut above the rest.

                        Race 3

                        2-Game Of Shadows (3-1)-Rolled the back half in .55 and Roy sped away down the lane drawing off by almost 4 lengths. That win shouldn't be discounted, and the same effort could lead to the same result.
                        4-Voluptuous (5/2)-This Alagna trainee is no slouch. Beaten chalk lost all chance after being 10 lengths back at the half. McNair should work a better trip this time and may have enough early speed to get the jump on #2.

                        Race 4

                        5-Archery Seelster (3-1)-Odds-on winner sure looked the part on 9-30 drawing off by over 5 lengths. Raced most of the mile on his own and it probably won't be so easy tonight. But Roy knows well, and he should put this colt in play early in the mile.
                        9-HP Maestro (9/2)-The post will help boost the price and didn't have much chance in last. Filion could look to follow a live cover flow and the fractions should be honest. Has hit the board in 6 of 8 at Wbsb with 1 picture, and can be in the mix here.

                        Race 5

                        2-Dynomites Peak (5/2)-Winner of 2 in a row and 3 of the last 4 gets some post relief tonight. Looks like a major player once again.
                        5-Macho Phil (3-1)-Started from post 10 in last and lost by a half-length to #10 who benefitted from a smooth trip. This is a competitive affair, JMac can make the most of this post draw and should be in the hunt at the wire.
                        7-Century Iglesias (6-1)-Has hit the board in 5 of 7 at Mohawk with 1 picture. Jamieson needs to provide a sharp steer and find some live cover. There should be an honest pace and could finish fastest of all.

                        0.20 Early Pick 5

                        1,4,5,8/3/2,4/5,9/2,5,7
                        Total Bet=$9.60
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                        • Can'tPickAWinner
                          Super Moderator
                          • Nov 2012
                          • 371089

                          #13
                          Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Wagering Strategies - October 9, 2021


                          October 9, 2021
                          Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
                          *
                          The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
                          *
                          *
                          Grade Descriptions:
                          Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
                          Grade B=Solid Play.
                          Grade C=Least preferred or pass
                          Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play


                          __________________________________________________ ____________________________
                          RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
                          Use: 2-Buzz of New York; 5-Takemebythehand

                          Forecast: 2-Buzz of New York wasted a perfect trip when failing to change leads the length of the lane and then just failing by a head to catch Summer Daisy in a similar maiden route affair for fillies and mares at Del Mar last month. Not much more will be needed to beat this field, though the loss of F. Prat (who is out of town) won’t help matters, Also, as an eight-race maiden, she’s probably not one to trust. Takemebythehand was given too much to do when a non-threatening fourth (beaten two and one-half lengths) in her U.S. debut at Del Mar in mid-July. The J. Mullins-trained English-bred sophomore gets an extra furlong to work with today, sports a healthy series of recent workouts, and should be heard from in the final furlong. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics in a race that we’ll otherwise not get too involved with.

                          Notable Workouts
                          5-Takemebythehand (September 22, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.4h TT). Grade: B-
                          Easy solo training track breeze for J. Mullins, just galloping while coming the final three furlongs in :12.3 and :38.1. Long-winded English-bred maiden filly should improve as the distances increase and has a right to step forward following an okay U.S. debut in July at Del Mar.
                          View Workout Video

                          __________________________________________________ ____________________________
                          __________________________________________________ ____________________________
                          RACE 2: Post: 1:32 PT Grade: B
                          Use: 1-Silver Moon Road; 5-Rookie Year

                          Forecast: Silver Moon Road has won two of his last three races with strong figures, the victories sandwiching a last place two-turn performance behind Breeders’ Cup-bound Ginobili routing at Del Mar in a race in which the T. Yakteen-trained gelding was fried on a blistering pace and was virtually eased late. A 12-length maiden claiming win over this track and distance in June charts extremely well in this $50,000 claimer restricted to 3-year-olds, and with good bug girl J. Pyfer riding him back the son of Secret Circle appears well-placed to continue his winning form. Rookie Year broke his maiden by more than nine lengths at this trip over this distance in early May and has two-turned in each of his four races since. Back sprinting, the P. Miller-trained gelding isn’t as fast on numbers as our top pick but projects to draft into a comfortable stalking/pressing position and then have his chance to produce a career top performance. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with the main push going to Silver Moon Road.

                          __________________________________________________ ____________________________
                          __________________________________________________ ____________________________
                          RACE 3: Post: 2:04 PT Grade: B
                          Single: 9-Kazuhiko

                          Forecast: Kazuhiko was given a run in his U.S. debut sprinting on turf at Del Mar in early August, failing to change leads in the stretch (typical for him) but coming home strongly without being knocked about to wind up third, beaten just over a length, and then galloping out well while clearly finding the five furlong trip a bit too sharp. The son of Deep Impact should be much more serious today today while greatly appreciating today’s extra furlong, so from his outside nine-post draw we’re hoping the 4-year-old Australian-bred colt can produce the last run. In a race in which no attractive alternates exists and at 5/2 on the morning line, we’ll take a stand and make him a win play and rolling exotic single.

                          __________________________________________________ ____________________________
                          __________________________________________________ ____________________________
                          RACE 4: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B+
                          Use: 1-Creative Peak; 6-Straight Up G

                          Forecast: Straight Up G is a first-timer from the R. Baltas barn with win-early breeding from a comfortable outside draw in a juvenile sprint that drew just six entrants. The workouts at San Luis Rey Downs jump off the page, so in a race that came up light the son of Straight Fire seems well-placed to score at first asking. Creative Peak was eliminated soon after the start as the even money favorite in a Los Alamitos maiden special weight sprint and today makes a positive barn change to V. Cerin. The son of Creative Cause, a respectable runner-up two races back in his debut at Santa Anita in a fairly fast race, is the best of the known element and is worth including in rolling exotic play either as a back-up or a saver.

                          __________________________________________________ ____________________________
                          __________________________________________________ ____________________________
                          RACE 5: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: B+
                          Use: 5-Let Freedom Rein; 8-Lucky Girl

                          Forecast: Let Freedom Rein gained valuable experience in her debut when winding up a willing third while on her own courage behind subsequent stakes winner Cairo Memories in a similar maiden turf miler for juvenile fillies and caught the eye galloping out full of run entering the clubhouse turn. R. Gonzalez got to known her in the race, stays aboard, and should have this $190,000 daughter of Constitution within range throughout and with every chance to produce a winning late kick. There’s excellent wagering value here at 4-1 on the morning line for a barn that has solid stats with the second-time starter angle. Lucky Girl displayed considerable promise when third of 14 in her debut in Ireland in July despite a very slow start and an extremely wide trip and gives every indication of being a well-meant European invader for R. Baltas following a strong series of workouts since arriving in California. She will be dangerous if she switches off behind horses and then produces a similar late run to the one she manufactured in her debut.

                          Notable Workouts:
                          Lucky Girl (October 4, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.2h TT). Grade: B
                          Even with Gold Dragon Queen (same time) for R. Baltas, splits of :24.1, :36 flat and 1:00.3 on our watches in solid training track drill while gearing up for U.S. debut. Steady, grinding sort will need a distance of ground on this circuit to show her best stuff. Looks fit, should be a live item when facing maiden juvenile fillies on grass.
                          View Workout Video

                          __________________________________________________ ____________________________
                          __________________________________________________ ____________________________
                          RACE 6: Post: 3:48 PT Grade:
                          Use: 4-Ka’nah; 5-Cunning Munnings

                          Forecast:This restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming sprint doesn’t have a whole lot in it, so we’ll double the race using the two main contenders. Ka’nah ran quite well when runner-up at this level two runs back, finishing second while more than four lengths clear of the rest, and repeat of that effort today should be sufficient. The Gio Ponti gelding has run well over this main track in the past and projects to settle in the second flight and then have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. Cunning Munnings, away since November but returning for a barn that has strong stats (20%) with layoff runners, has been given a solid foundation of workouts both at San Luis Rey Downs and at Santa Anita to be fit and ready. The M. Glatt-trained gelding has back numbers that are good enough to win at this level, though his lack of tactical speed is a bit concerning. We’ll prefer Ka’nah on top but have tickets using both in our rolling exotics.

                          __________________________________________________ ____________________________
                          __________________________________________________ ____________________________

                          RACE 7: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: B+
                          Single: 4-Ippodamia’s Girl

                          Forecast: Ippodamia’s Girl needs to be held up early and produced late and given that type of trip the veteran mare should regain her winning form in this year’s renewal of the Swingtime S. over a mile on grass for fillies and mares. A bullet half mile training track drill (:46 2/5, fastest of 16) eight days ago is significant, as is the switch to one of the barn’s “go-to” riders, M. Gutierrez, so at 7/2 on the morning line we’re going to play the daughter of Stormy Atlantic with confidence in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.

                          Notable Workouts:
                          4-Ippodamia’s Girl (October 1, Santa Anita, 4f, :46.2h TT). Grade: B+
                          Was let run through the lane and responded well with quick splits of :23 flat and :46.3, full stride late while appearing quite sharp. Has plenty of speed but form suggests she’s most effective when held up early and allowed to blast home. Happiest at a mile.
                          View Workout Video

                          __________________________________________________ ____________________________
                          __________________________________________________ ____________________________

                          RACE 8: Post: 4:40 PT Grade: B--
                          Use: 4-Test Drive; 6-Honor Among Men; 9-Sometimes Always

                          Forecast: We’ll triple this low level restricted (nw-2) $16,000 sprint for older horses that offers three main players and a few others with a look as well. Sometimes Always is guaranteed a lovely stalking trip outside and should have dead aim on the leaders every step of the way. The route-to-sprint angle is in full effect for this son of Morning Line, who was a clever winner around one corner two races back with a similar type of journey that he’ll enjoy today. Quite popular at the claim box, he’s changed barns in five of his seven career starts and retains U. Rispoli for new trainer J. Gutierrez while showing a steady, healthy work tab for his first race since mid-August. Honor Among Men missed in a photo as the favorite vs. similar at Los Alamitos last month after stumbling at the start and then getting worn down close home despite digging in gamely. He’ll need to navigate an extra half-furlong today but with a clean start the son of Bayern appears the most dangerous of the front-runners. Test Drive, in his first start following a claim by J. Wong (33% with this angle), is lightly-raced with a closing kick that could make him dangerous if a pace meltdown materializes. He picks up the stable’s “go to” rider A. Cedillo (24% with a massive flat-bet profit) and is worth using somewhere on your ticket at 5-1 on the morning line.

                          __________________________________________________ ____________________________
                          __________________________________________________ ____________________________

                          RACE 9: Post: 5:12 PT Grade: B
                          Use: 1-I’ll Stand Taller; 2-Clem Labine; 4-Surplus

                          Forecast: I’ll Stand Taller is back sprinting where he’s always been most comfortable and at 6-1 on the morning line represents a reasonable gamble in this extended turf sprint for first-level allowance state-bred older horses. The D. O’Neill-trained colt has rising speed figures, a strong recent training track drill to have him on edge, and a stalking style that should have give him every chance to tag the leaders close home. Surplus continued his improving pattern by graduating from California-bred company over five furlongs on grass at Del Mar in late August. The P. Miller-trained gelding earned a career top speed figure in victory and a similar performance today makes him dangerous right back. Ex-Dodger reliever and three time World Series champion Clem Labine is a deep closing sprinter trying grass for the first time. As a son of Grazen, the Northern California-based gelding should have no difficulty adapting to the change in surface, and with good racing luck and some help up front he could pose a serious threat once again in the late stages.
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                          • Can'tPickAWinner
                            Super Moderator
                            • Nov 2012
                            • 371089

                            #14
                            Saturday Santa Anita Late Pick 4 Analysis & Picks


                            October 8, 2021 | By Johnny D


                            While spring is a wonderful time of year…complete with melting snow, blooming trees, singing birds and the Kentucky Derby; fall steals the cake with cool mornings, sunny afternoons, colorful landscapes, NCAA and NFL football, the World Series and Breeders’ Cup. Keeneland, Belmont and Santa Anita are in action this weekend and they’re all worth the price of a wager or two.

                            In fact, Santa Anita’s Late Pick 4 might be worth a little more attention than usual because Xpressbet is offering shares of an extra $2,000 to players who hit the wager. That may not mean a major windfall but, heck, if you’re playing the Pick 4 with Xpressbet or 1/STBET anyway, why not register and collect more money when you’re correct? The Late Pick 4 offer is good each racing day this meeting at The Great Race Place. Log in and visit MEMBER BENEFITS/SPECIAL OFFERS to register and for information about all Xpressbet offers, including a $10,000 Fall-Stars Pick 4 Split offer at Keeneland Saturday, Oct. 9.

                            In order to, hopefully, help horseplayers conquer Saturday’s Late Pick 4 at Santa Anita, we’ve analyzed the races below and offered up a suggested ticket. Please, consider the analysis and revise the suggested play or construct your own sheet based on the evaluations. Pick 4s are easier to hit than Pick 5s, about like the Matterhorn is easier to climb than Everest. In other words…wear your mittens, they’re both difficult!

                            Last week in this space, we suggested a $48 Late Pick 4 ticket that returned $37.75 for each $.50. Not so great. What was pretty good, however, is that the $48 total ticket price represented a suggested $3 Late Pick 4 worth a total of $226.50 plus a nearly 16% $6.01 bonus from the Xpressbet Late Pick 4 pot to registered players. Not a life-changing score but, as they say, ‘Better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.’

                            This week’s Late Pick 4 is much tougher than last week’s, and we don’t envision a ‘chalky’ payoff. We’ve suggested a more expensive ticket to reflect the perceived open nature of these races. Trim and adjust to fit your preferences. This appears a difficult one.

                            6th Race
                            Claiming $25kN2L
                            Three Year Olds & Up
                            Six Furlongs

                            This is a tricky start to the Late Pick 4. Good news is that we get to see the tote board for wagering information that might help narrow down the choices. Any runner taking strong money in here should be a signal that the barn knows more than we do. Otherwise, wagering should be about evenly distributed across the board with no real ‘hot’ horse.

                            #1 Doc Adams drops for a tag for the first time off a nearly one-year layoff. The work pattern is nothing special and apprentice DA Herrera is up. The drop by owner, breeder Nick Alexander must be respected in a wide-open race.

                            #2 Honorary Degree broke maiden one back when loose on the lead at the maiden 20k level. That’s his only notable effort in 5 starts. Apprentice Jess Pyfer rides for Adam Kitchingman.

                            #3 Stir the Pot is just 1 for 16, with 4 seconds and 2 thirds. He has early speed and there’s not much of that in this race. A best of 80 half mile work in :47 3/5 shows he’s still got his speed. Six furlongs may not be his best distance, but he’s been second at six and one-half furlongs. Again, this is a wide-open race so his speed must be respected.

                            #4 Ka’nah was second at this level one back and then a respectable third in a $50k starter. He fits off those two races and has faced better earlier in his career. He should race just off the early pace under Tyler Baze.

                            #5 Cunning Munnings also was second at this level one back in a five and one-half furlong turf race in January of 2020. The 5-year-old’s been gone about one year and has trained about every seven days. Trainer Mark Glatt is 20% off long layoffs. More food for thought.

                            #6 Intense is a 3-year-old tumbling in class for this following gelding. Owner/breeder Terry Lovinger offers this guy up for a tag for the first time. The gelding has a few interesting works for this: :59 4/5 and 1:13 4/5. Count him in the mix on the drop from state-bred optional claimers into this scramble. Usual jockey Baze moves from this one to #4 Ka’nah and Maldonado replaces him.

                            #7 Gordy’s Boy is a bookend uncoupled entry for trainer Steve Miyadi (also has #1 Doc Adams). This 3-year-old gelding was claimed for $20k two back and promptly broke maiden against state-bred company for $45k at Los Alamitos Sept. 12. He’s just 1 for 13 overall but 1 for 1 with new connections. He usually races from off the pace. It should be noted that trainer Steve Miyadi is 30% with runners that won their last start.

                            Use as Many as You Can Afford.
                            Best: #4, #6
                            Next Best: #1, #3, #5, #7
                            While you’re at it…might as well add: #2

                            7th Race
                            Swingtime
                            Fillies & Mares Three Year Olds & Upward
                            One Mile (Turf)

                            A tricky event with enough speed to set things up for an ‘off-the-pace’ charge. Might need to use a couple of these to feel ‘covered.’ Even so, that might not be enough. Another bit of a scramble in the second leg of the Late Pick 4.

                            #1 Global Brand is a relatively new face to the local scene—one weak Listed stakes effort at Del Mar. She’s won just 2 of 14 starts—one at Tampa and one at Presque Isle. She has no speed and will require a pace collapse to win. Others are more attractive in here.

                            #2 Cowboys Daughter has inside speed and probably will use it to maintain position. She likes to win races—5 for 11—but is 0-3 at Santa Anita and at the distance. She was claimed for $20k four races back and has promptly won 3 in a row—2 on Golden Gate turf and 1 over Los Al dirt. Trainer Reid France is a sparkling 28% this year. She should have company on the front end and that ought to weaken her late. Always difficult to go against a hot streak but she seems in tough.

                            #3 Avenue de France won her last start over the Golden Gate turf in a $52k stakes race. She closed from off the pace to do it and that’s her style. She won a one mile and one-eighth allowance turf race at Sant Anita in December. Her only graded stakes try was not good, but it was at one mile and one-half. If things get really heated up on the front end, this 4-year-old filly could close to possibly get a piece of this.

                            #4 Ippodamia’s Girl is a 6-year-old mare that won a restricted stakes race at Del Mar two races back. She then set the pace in a one mile and one-eighth turf stakes there and faded. This distance is more to her liking—5 for 11—and she’s 3 for 10 at Santa Anita. At this distance she is likely to sit just off the early pace and maybe get first run on the closers. She is Gr. 3 stakes placed going five furlongs and was close in a Gr. 3 at this distance.

                            #5 Brooke is a 5-year-old mare that won Group 1 races in Chile and is placed in two Gr. 3 races in the US. In 4 US starts, she’s been close 3 times and twice at Gr. 3 level. Her poorest race was last out in the Gr. 2 Yellow Ribbon at Del Mar when nearly 19-1 odds. She finished just behind

                            #4 Ippodamia’s Girl two back in the Osunitas at Del Mar. They also finished close together in the Gr. 3 Wilshire, too. Like #4 Ippodamia’s Girl, this mare races from just off the pace. Feels like this return to an ungraded stakes race is a strong move. Would like her more if not for a somewhat sketchy work tab with gaps between morning efforts. Still, she fits well.

                            #6 Ellie Arroway is a 5-year-old mare with speed who should add pace to the race. She was claimed for $40k in January and was second for $25 in August at Del Mar. She would be a surprise.

                            #7 Norma Jean B., a 4-year-old filly, was 0 for 9 until breaking her maiden and then winning next out, too, in a first-level allowance race. She’s hot and is stepping up quite a bit in here. She races from off the pace and was 6-1 to win last out. She’ll be a bigger price than that in here and would be a surprise except for the old adage that ‘when fillies or mares get good, they stay good.’

                            #8 Nasty figures to set or force the early pace. Two of her last three races have come against Grade 2 foes and she showed speed and faded in each of those encounters and in the restricted common Osunitas Stakes. She is Gr. 3 stakes placed going this distance and has a stakes win at the distance over the Santa Anita turf. She sports a couple of notable workouts for this: :47 (2 of 23) and :59 (2 of 18), although speed hasn’t been her issue. ‘Stick’ has.

                            #9 England’s Rose is a lightly raced 5-year-old coming off a one mile and three-eighths first-level allowance score at Del Mar. She’s been first or second in her last 4 races since January. She’s lightly raced with just 6 starts and is 1 for 1 at Santa Anita and was second in her only start at the distance. She will need to rally from off the pace. She’s developing nicely, if not slowly, for trainer John Shirreffs and this is a big step up in class.

                            #10 Quiet Secretary is a 4-year-old filly who should add speed to the early mix. Winner of 4 of 16 overall, she’s 2 for 9 at Santa Anita and 4 for 8 at the distance. She won her last out in wire-to-wire fashion at Del Mar in a $62 Claiming/Allowance race. Her graded stakes tries thus far have been disappointing and her outside posts figures she’ll need to ‘go’ early to get the lead over the other speeds in here and that could sap her strength.

                            Best in a scramble: #4, #5
                            Use More If You Can Afford To: #3, #9


                            8th Race
                            Claiming $16KN2L
                            Three Year Olds & Upward
                            Six Furlongs
                            Several of these seem unlikely winners. Maybe players can get by this leg while using one or two runners.

                            #1 Chasing Fame comes out of this kind of race at Los Al Sept 19 that is common to several in here. This guy ran evenly to be a well-beaten fourth and now draws the rail for a rematch. Claimed for $20k at Del Mar in July, he’s been outrun since.

                            #2 The Roan Ranger won a race last out at Los Al going 1,000 yards but still is a maiden against Thoroughbreds. Would be a surprise.

                            #3 Hawk Hill drops back to a level where he was second going six and one-half furlongs at Del Mar. That afternoon he opened up the lane and was nailed on the money at 8-1 odds. Other tries at this level at Pleasanton and Golden Gate have not been as successful. He’s 1 for 15 and probably will come from off the pace.

                            #4 Test Drive was claimed last out by a 33% first-time barn switch outfit. He has shown no speed in 3 starts and did stumble last out. He’d be a surprise but the barn is good with these.

                            #5 Fun Coupon had fun last out at the Maiden $20k level with a hard-fought dead-heat draw going five and one-half furlongs at Los Al. Probably not capable of duplicating that effort although it should be noted that blinkers were added and may have made a difference.

                            #6 Honor Among Men is a 4-year-old with speed that just missed last out going five and one-half furlongs at this level in the common Los Al Sept. 19 race. He was favored and used his early speed. Expect similar tactics this time with Baze up. He should hang around a long time and could win.

                            #7 Squalotoro is a 4-year-old coming out of the common Los Al Sept. 19 race. He ran evenly to be third, two and one-half lengths back. He was second at this level three back at Santa Anita in Feb when he tossed his head at the start and flew home late. He fits in here and switches to JJ Hernandez who won on him last October.

                            #8 Pedro Perez is a Thoroughbred maiden with a Los Alamitos 1,800 yard win. Would be a surprise.

                            #9 Sometimes Always probably doesn’t know if he’s coming or going. He’s been claimed out of 5 of 7 starts at 4 different racetracks! Favored last out against fellow 3-year-olds going one mile at Del Mar, He pressed the early pace and weakened a bit late to hold second, something he’s pretty adept at (4 seconds in 7 starts). Before that he broke maiden for $20k going seven furlongs at Del Mar. Winning ride Umberto Rispoli has been up since and tries again for new trainer Jorge Gutierrez.

                            Fit and Fast: #6
                            Use: #7
                            Add On: #9

                            9th Race
                            State-Bred Allowance Optional Claiming
                            Three Year Olds & Upward
                            Six & One-Half Furlongs (Turf)

                            No relief in the last for players as this could go many different ways. There’s plenty of speed, a couple of first or lightly-raced-on-turf runners, some sharp recent maiden winners and a few steady punchers. Lots of ways for this one to go over a tricky six-furlong flat layout.

                            #1 I’ll Stand Taller was second to #2 Clem Labine three back at Del Mar, won his next start and was third going one mile and one-sixteenth at Del Mar in a decent effort—his first on turf. He’s a genuine 3-year-old with 8 starts, 4 at this level (a win, a second, a third and a fourth). One of several that deserves consideration in here.

                            #2 Clem Labine is a 5-year-old making his first start on turf. He won at this level last time out at Del Mar, was second in a Pleasanton allowance race and won for $25k at Pleasanton. He seems to be doing well enough and the main concern is how he will handle the grass. With 16 of 24 starts either first or second, he deserves some level of respect. He has a best-of 76 :47 2/5 blowout at Golden Gate for this.

                            #3 Mischievous Path’s last was not good. Pass for now.

                            #4 Surplus has speed and used it to cruise to a more than 3 length maiden victory last out going five furlongs at Del Mar on turf. Peter Miller trainers and this one has to be respected right back.

                            #5 Scary Fast Smile is a 4-year-old that’s been overmatched in his last 2 races. Before that he parlayed two thirds, three seconds and a seven-length win into an eighth-length tally at this level. This is his first turf try. Back at the appropriate level, he could be very dangerous. Nice 1:00, 2nd best-of-47 work for this.

                            #6 Single Me Out is a 6-year-old with 2 wins in 29 starts. Don’t think this is number 3.

                            #7 Austin’s Boy is a 4-year-old with speed, but he’s had trouble holding on throughout a couple of recent 5-furlong turf tests. He did win a maiden race going five and one-half furlongs over the Santa Anita grass in February ’20. Needs better and has a :59 work for this.

                            #8 Seattle Breakout surprised with a powerful win going six furlongs over Del Mar dirt in August. He had been gone since April and an awful first out performance over ‘Anita turf. Blinkers were added for the victory and that score must be respected even though it came over dirt against maidens.

                            #9 Riding With Dino is a 4-year-old with just 7 starts. He’s got speed and will use it in here. He hasn’t been very good at holding on though, since he won a six-furlong race in November ’19. Two five panel turf starts since have seen him collared in the lane. He has 2 wins, 2 seconds and 2 thirds in 7 starts, so he’s competitive…at least he should be until the final furlong and one-half.

                            #10 Foothill is a 4-year-old that was claimed in March for $25k. He won in his next out in April going one mile and one-eighth over Santa Anita turf. He gets a 5-pound weight break with apprentice Pyfer and that could help his closing kick as he cuts back from a mile. Still, he’s just 2 for 14 overall.

                            #11 Johnny Podres has just 2 wins and 13 losses; a far cry from won/loss records posted by his namesake. The equine version has been second 5 times—all on turf in just 9 starts there! He races from off the pace and has been close going five furlongs. Six and one-half ought to be up his alley. He’s been second in 2 of 3 Santa Anita turf starts. Underneath in Exactas might be best.

                            #12 El Diablo Rojo is one of several in here that have won at this level. However, this 4-year-old is 0 for 6 on turf. He races from off the pace and the distance should suit him even though the turf surface may not.

                            #13 Bound to Bet raced respectably against some of these on Del Mar turf at this level. Still, he will be drawn wide, if he gets in, and will need to rally very wide. Asking a lot from the post.

                            #14 Baby Gronk is a 6-year-old with 3 recognized wins out of 27 starts. Tough to endorse if he draws in.

                            Slightly Best But Not a Single: #5
                            These Should Be Used: #1, #2, #4, #8

                            $.50 Late Pick 4 Ticket ($60)
                            Race 6
                            #1, #3, #4, #5, #6, #7
                            Race 7
                            #4, #5
                            Race 8
                            #6, #7
                            Race 9
                            #1, #2, #4, #5, #8

                            Race On!
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                            • Can'tPickAWinner
                              Super Moderator
                              • Nov 2012
                              • 371089

                              #15
                              Jon White: My Early Breeders' Cup Classic Odds


                              October 7, 2021 | By Jon White
                              The 2021 Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar on Nov. 5-6 is just around the corner. As Del Mar’s morning-line oddsmaker, I thought this would be a good time to come up with a list of early odds for the $6 million BC Classic.

                              Of course, the actual field for the Grade I BC Classic is far from set in stone. Who will start in the 1 1/4-mile contest is a guessing game at this point. These early odds no doubt will be different closer to the Breeders’ Cup as a consequence of a number of factors, such as who actually ends up being entered and how well (or not) each horse seems to be training up to the race.

                              With all that in mind, my early odds for a dozen BC Classic candidates are listed below:

                              5-2 Knicks Go
                              3-1 Essential Quality
                              5-1 Hot Rod Charlie
                              6-1 Medina Spirit
                              10-1 Art Collector
                              10-1 Max Player
                              12-1 Maxfield
                              15-1 Tripoli
                              20-1 Dr Post
                              20-1 Happy Saver
                              30-1 Idol
                              30-1 Stilleto Boy

                              I expect Knicks Go and Essential Quality to receive the most support from bettors. Brad Cox trains both.

                              Knicks Go will be taking a three-race winning streak into the BC Classic. Last Saturday at Churchill Downs, he cruised to a four-length victory in the Grade III Lukas Classic.

                              With jockey Joel Rosario peeking back so many times in deep stretch that he looked something like a bobblehead, Knicks Go completed his 1 1/8-mile journey in 1:47.85. This clocking was not far off the track record of 1:47.28 set by Victory Gallop in 1999. In terms of fifths, Knicks Go was just two-fifths off Victory Gallop’s clocking.

                              Knicks Go was assigned a 104 Beyer Speed Figure for his Lukas Classic triumph. The Maryland-bred Paynter colt does own the highest Beyer recorded in a two-turn race this year, a 113 that was achieved when he won the Grade III Cornhuster Handicap by 10 1/4 lengths at Prairie Meadows on July 2. Knicks Go also posted a 111 Beyer when a 4 1/2-length winner of Saratoga’s grade I Whitney Stakes on Aug. 7.

                              It is noteworthy that when trained by Cox, Knicks Go now is seven for seven in races around two turns.

                              Knicks Go is a front-runner. Medina Spirit won Santa Anita’s Grade I Awesome Again Stakes in front-running fashion by five lengths last Saturday. Also last Saturday, Art Collector led past every pole when he took Belmont Park’s Grade I Woodward Stakes by 1 1/2 lengths.

                              Will Medina Spirit and/or Art Collector push Knicks Go early in the BC Classic? Could that be a recipe for Knicks Go to lose his first two-turn race for Cox? Or will Knicks Go prove to be just too fast early? Can Knicks Go seize control of the race early and, despite setting what likely will be a brisk pace, do it comfortably enough that he has plenty left in the tank for the stretch run?

                              Brad Free, like yours truly, has Knicks Go listed as a 5-2 favorite in Daily Racing Form’s BC Classic odds.

                              I have Essential Quality currently pegged at 3-1. Is that a tad too low? Perhaps. Free has Essential Quality a notch higher than I do at 7-2.

                              One of the main reasons I have Essential Quality at 3-1 instead of 7-2 is he has been the favorite in all nine career starts to date. In other words, he has been strongly backed by bettors every single time he has raced.

                              Then there is Essential Quality’s stellar resume in that he has won eight of nine lifetime starts. Also, it appears that this is a fine group of 3-year-old males. An indication of this was how Medina Spirit trounced older foes in the Awesome Again.

                              I look for Hot Rod Charlie to get quite a bit of respect as far as BC Classic wagering is concerned. Hence, I have him at 5-1.

                              Hot Rod Charlie ran a splendid race in defeat in the Grade I Belmont Stakes on June 5. Hot Rod Charlie’s performance was so impressive on that occasion because, despite running the fastest opening quarter-mile in the history of the Belmont when run at 1 1/2 miles, he managed to finish second to Essential Quality.

                              In the Belmont, Hot Rod Charlie zipped the first quarter in :22.78 or :22 3/5 in fifths. Prior to this year, the quickest initial quarter in the Belmont when run at 1 1/2 miles had occurred all the way back in 1945. That’s when The Doge covered the initial quarter in :22 4/5, a torrid pace in such a long race on what was then a deep track.

                              The Doge paid the price for his early efforts. He faltered and finished seventh in the field of eight. Pavot won by five lengths, while The Doge lost by a little more than 24 lengths.

                              The Belmont has been run at 1 1/2 miles a total of 95 times. Hot Rod Charlie ran the opening half-mile in :46.49 or :46 2/5 in fifths. The only horse to ever record a faster time for the first half-mile was the great Secretariat, who was clocked in :46 1/5 en route to his spectacular 31-length victory to complete a Triple Crown sweep.

                              After the Belmont, Hot Rod Charlie finished first in Monmouth Park’s Grade I Haskell Stakes on July 17 for trainer Doug O’Neill. However, the Kentucky-bred Oxbow colt was disqualified and placed last for causing Midnight Bourbon to clip heels and unseat jockey Paco Lopez during the stretch run.

                              When last seen under silks, Hot Rod Charlie won the Grade I Pennsylvania Derby by 2 1/4 lengths on Sept. 25. He received a robust 111 Beyer Speed Figure for that effort.

                              Below are the Beyers of 105 or higher by a 3-year-old this year at one mile or longer:

                              BSF Horse (Finish, Race, Track, Date)

                              111 Hot Rod Charlie (Won, Pennsylvania Derby, Prx, Sept. 25)
                              109 Essential Quality (Won, Belmont, Bel, June 5)
                              108 Hot Rod Charlie (2nd, Belmont, Bel, June 5)
                              107 Medina Spirit (Won, Awesome Again, SA, Oct. 2)
                              107 Essential Quality (Won, Travers, Sar, Aug. 28)
                              107 Life Is Good (Won, San Felipe, SA, March 6)
                              107 Midnight Bourbon (2nd, Pennsylvania Derby, Prx, Sept. 25)
                              107 Midnight Bourbon (2nd, Travers, Sar, Aug. 28)

                              I have Medina Spirit at 6-1 for the BC Classic following his Awesome Again victory in which he was hammered down to 13-10 favoritism despite facing older foes for the first time. The 3-year-old Florida-bred Protonico colt now has finished first or second in eight of nine career starts.

                              Back on the first Saturday in May, Medina Spirit crossed the finish line first in this year’s Grade I Kentucky Derby. Mandaloun was the runner-up. Hot Rod Charlie edged 5-2 favorite Essential Quality (who experienced a very wide trip) by a head for third.

                              As of right now, I could see Art Collector going off at anywhere from 8-1 to 12-1 for the BC Classic. I opted to make him 10-1 at this point.

                              Art Collector is three for three since Hall of Famer Bill Mott took over the training duties. For Mott, the 4-year-old Bernardini colt has won Saratoga’s Alydar Stakes on Aug. 6, the Grade II Charles Town Classic on Aug. 27, then last Saturday’s Woodward.

                              It is to Art Collector’s credit that he has shown that he can win even if he does not get the early lead. At Charles Town, he raced in second early, a length off the pace, before getting the job done. He also won Keeneland’s Grade II Blue Grass Stakes last year after stalking in third early.

                              A major reason why I do not have Max Player’s BC Classic odds lower than 10-1 is the fact that his top Beyer Speed Figure is not higher than 102. Free has Max Player at 9-2.

                              I think the DRF’s Jay Privman makes an astute observation in his comment for Max Player when stating that he “earned career-best Beyer in last, will need better still vs. these.”

                              As for the dozen BC Classic candidates that I listed earlier, this is their top Beyer Speed Figure to date:

                              Beyer Horse

                              113 Knicks Go
                              111 Hot Rod Charlie
                              109 Essential Quality
                              107 Art Collector
                              107 Medina Spirit
                              105 Maxfield
                              104 Dr Post
                              104 Tripoli
                              103 Happy Saver
                              103 Tizamagician
                              102 Idol
                              102 Max Player

                              Below are the Beyers for BC Classic winners going back to its first running in 1984:

                              2020 Authentic (111)
                              2019 Vino Rosso (111)
                              2018 Accelerate (105)
                              2017 Gun Runner (117)
                              2016 Arrogate (120)
                              2015 American Pharoah (120)
                              2014 Bayern (113)
                              2013 Mucho Macho Man (112)
                              2012 Fort Larned (117)
                              2011 Drosselmeyer (104)
                              2010 Blame (111)
                              2009 Zenyatta (112)*
                              2008 Raven’s Pass (110)*
                              2007 Curlin (119)
                              2006 Invasor (116)
                              2005 Saint Liam (112)
                              2004 Ghostzapper (124)
                              2003 Pleasantly Perfect (119)
                              2002 Volponi (116)
                              2001 Tiznow (117)
                              2000 Tiznow (116)
                              1999 Cat Thief (118)
                              1998 Awesome Again (116)
                              1997 Skip Away (120)
                              1996 Alphabet Soup (115)
                              1995 Cigar (117)
                              1994 Concern (115)
                              1993 Arcangues (114)
                              1992 A.P. Indy (114)
                              1991 Black Tie Affair (120)
                              1990 Unbridled (116)
                              1989 Sunday Silence (124)
                              1988 Alysheba (122)
                              1987 Ferdinand (117)
                              1986 Skywalker (118)
                              1985 Proud Truth (120)
                              1984 Wild Again (113)

                              *Synthetic surface

                              MUCHO GUSTO WORKOUT AT GRANTS PASS?

                              I could not help chuckling when I was notified of a workout in Oregon on Sept. 29 via Daily Racing Form’s stable mail. The email stated that Mucho Gusto had worked four furlongs that day in :50.60 at Grants Pass Downs.

                              Say what?

                              It was announced last January that Mucho Gusto had been retired from racing due to a soft-tissue injury. In what turned out to be his final start, the 5-year-old Kentucky-bred son of 2013 BC Classic winner Mucho Macho Man finished fourth in Santa Anita’s Grade II San Antonio Stakes late last year on Dec. 26.

                              Mucho Macho Man won six of 13 career starts while earning $3,943,800. His biggest victory came in the Grade I, $3 million Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream Park in 2020.

                              Did Mucho Gusto really have a workout last Friday at Grants Pass Downs? Of course not. It turns out that it was Mucho Runner who worked four furlongs in :50.60 at Grants Pass on Sept. 29.

                              Mucho Runner, like Mucho Gusto, is by Mucho Macho Man. That’s just about all that Mucho Runner and Mucho Gusto have in common.

                              A 4-year-old filly, Mucho Runner hasn’t raced this year. She has won one of four lifetime starts while earning $7,950. Her lone win came in a maiden $8,000 claiming race at Golden Gate Fields on May 24, 2020.

                              Mucho Gusto’s highest Beyer Speed Figure was the 107 he was credited with when he won the Pegasus. Mucho Runner’s top Beyer so far is the 49 in her lone victory.

                              The Sept. 29 workout originally attributed to Mucho Gusto has been corrected. It now properly has been attributed to Mucho Runner.

                              This brought back memories of my very first day on the job in the summer of 1974 after being hired by the Daily Racing Form. The man responsible for the DRF hiring me was Bud Lyon, who was the national supervisor of the DRF’s chart-callers. Lyon called a great many Kentucky Derby charts for the DRF. He was calling charts at Playfair that summer until Dick Cartney would take over calling the charts at Playfair following the close of Longacres in September.

                              After I was hired, Lyon instructed me to report to the racing office the next morning to learn the ropes of what the DRF needed from a track on entry days. Lyon’s call-taker was longtime DRF employee Wilbur Brooke.

                              While we were waiting for Lyon’s arrival at Playfair that morning, I stood near Brooke as he was typing away on the teletype machine. From a handwritten list of all the workouts at Playfair that morning, Brooke was sending this information to the DRF’s Seattle office via teletype.

                              When I happened to see the name of one of the horses on the handwritten list of workouts, I thought I should bring it to Brooke’s attention.

                              “If I were you, Wilbur, I would not send in that workout,” I said, pointing to the name of one of the horses.

                              Since this was my first morning on the job, I did not want to make a big deal of it. I tried to be as low-key as possible. Even so, Brooke did not take kindly to my suggestion.

                              “This is your first day on the job and you’re telling me to not send in one of these workouts,” Brooke barked at me. “Who do you think you are? These are OFFICIAL workouts. Who are you to tell me to not send in one of these workouts?”

                              “Sorry. Sorry,” I said. “I was just trying to help.”

                              Brooke went back to typing away. But after a few minutes, he stopped typing.

                              “Just out of curiosity, why did you tell me to not send in that workout?” Brooke asked.

                              “Well, anything is possible,” I said. “So, I can’t be 100% sure. But I am 99.9% sure that Little Current, winner of this year’s Preakness and Belmont Stakes, did not work four furlongs this morning at Playfair.”

                              “What? That’s the name of the Preakness and Belmont winner? Well, in that case I guess that I won’t send it in,” Brooke said.

                              When I showed up in the racing office the next morning, Brooke thanked me and explained what had happened.

                              “When the clocker asked the trainer for the name of the horse that had just worked a half-mile, the trainer said it had been Little Current,” Brooke said. “The trainer just wanted to see that if he did that, would Little Current’s name show up on the work tab in the Racing Form. And it almost did. Thanks again for catching that.”

                              I thought that, all in all, this was a pretty good way for my DRF career to begin.

                              THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL

                              In the wake of Medina Spirit’s Awesome Again victory, he moves into the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll. Art Collector also enters this week’s Top 10 following his win in the Woodward. Maxfield and Malathaat dropped out of the Top 10 this week.

                              The Top 10 is listed below:

                              Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

                              1. 323 Knicks Go (22)
                              2. 312 Letruska (6)
                              3. 383 Essential Quality (6)
                              4. 137 Jackie’s Warrior
                              5. 128 Hot Rod Charlie
                              6. 124 Gamine
                              7. 121 Medina Spirit
                              8. 92 Art Collector
                              9. 80 Max Player
                              10. 65 Domestic Spending
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