Service Plays Saturday 10/9/21

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 369690

    #31
    Dr. Chuck

    5 UNIT CFB TOTAL(LY) OFF!!

    Arkansas-Ole Miss over 66 (#389-390)

    MMPACT and Circa opened this bad boy at 71….(ahem…because that's much closer to correct) and it was hit HARD due to the performances the sharps and big money had just seen from the 2 opponents in this matchup.

    Arkansas was suffocated to the MAX by Kirby Smart and the UGA defense and slowly bled the Hogs dry en route to a 37-0 never close contest. Meanwhile, the next set of games in the SEC featured another potential Herbstreit/Fowler called game in Tuscaloosa, between Saban and yet another former assistant in Lane Kiffin. Another never a game matchup that saw the Rebels not put up a single point in the 1st half!

    So you're saying…we're taking an Over in a game where these 2 team combined to NOT score for 90 minutes of 120 minutes of total football the week before?

    Yes, you would be correct….in fact one of the best and most profitable spots we find is to fade a WORST performance and also fade a BEST performance! Arkansas looked the part of a top 15 team in the country….before facing UGA, and Ole Miss looked like an offense that could almost never be stopped…until it faced Saban.

    Just look to last night, and the similarities of Saban and Belichick through the years. No one had stopped the Bucs to this point, despite taking a loss to LA…but the Pats held Brady to just 19 points, on 4 FGs and just 1 TD! This is WHAT Saban does…and probably the mere fact Ole Miss put up 48 points last season and now 21 points this season screams regression?

    I disagree of course and think Saban is adapatable while Kiffin was going to attempt to run that same exact game and hope for stops on defense! That doesn't work against a team and mind like Saban….but Arkansas and Pittman are not that caliber of defense.

    I think we are closer to being to 66 in the first half than we are at being “in trouble” of this total going Over!

    Double get the lead out on offense spot for 2 solid offenses that were made to look FCS-esque for much of their previous games…and the 71 this opened at Circa….in a vacuum….is STILL WHERE I WOULD HAVE BET THIS AT 5 UNITS!!!
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 369690

      #32
      Marc Lawrence Preferred Picks:


      Super Hot 22-0 Perfect System Club Play of the Year......LSU (the top play)


      Hot CFB 24-0 ATS SUPER SHOCKER .....UTAH


      SATURDAY NIGHT CFB KILL PLAY....UTSA
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      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 369690

        #33
        PARLAY WINNERS SATURDAY FOOTBALL
        2-1 on Friday in CFB. 3-0 in football Thursday

        Play Kentucky -3 over LSU (NCAA)

        Kentucky has covered the spread in 10 of the last 14 games after allowing 125 or less passing yards and they have covered the spread in 9 of the last 13 games when playing as a home favorite.

        Play Auburn +14.5 over Georgia (NCAA)

        Georgia has lost 22 of the last 32 games against the spread coming off three or more consecutive conference wins and they have lost 16 of the last 22 games against the spread after scoring 31 points or more in four consecutive games.

        Play Texas +3 over Oklahoma (NCAA)

        Oklahoma has lost 67 of the last 122 games against the spread when playing in the month of October and they have lost 83 of the last 150 games against the spread coming off a game where they forced one or less turnovers.

        Play Wyoming +6 over Air Force (NCAA)

        Air Force has lost 47 of the last 86 games against the spread after covering the spread in two of the last three games and they have lost 72 of the last 131 games against the spread when playing in weeks five through nine.

        Play Mississippi -6 over Arkansas (NCAA)

        Mississippi has covered the spread in 62 of the last 115 games coming off an UNDER the total in their last game and they have covered the spread in 77 of the last 140 games coming off a game where they forced one or less turnovers.
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        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 369690

          #34
          Teddy Covers

          3% Oregon State -3' (-110)
          3% Texas +3' (-115)
          3% Colorado State -3 (-110)
          3% Marshall -21 (-110)

          5% New Mexico State/Nevada Over 62' (-115)
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          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 369690

            #35
            Joe wiz

            ND
            Lsu
            Texas
            Auburn
            Penn st
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            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 369690

              #36
              Big Al

              Rutgers
              Wisconsin
              Memphis
              Oregon state
              TCU
              Western Michigan
              Eastern Michigan
              Liberty
              New Mexico State
              Western Kentucky
              Texas A&M
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              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 369690

                #37
                Marty’s goy

                W Virginia +2
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                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 369690

                  #38
                  GIANNI THE GREEK

                  • cfb
                    Game: (315) Michigan State at (316) Rutgers
                    Date/Time: Oct 9 2021 12:00 PM EDT
                    Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
                    Play Rating: 4%
                    Play: Total Under 50.5 (-110)

                    315) Under 50.5 Michigan St-Rutgers…(4%) via William Hill
                  • CFB
                    Game: (361) West Virginia at (362) Baylor
                    Date/Time: Oct 9 2021 12:00 PM EDT
                    Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
                    Play Rating: 4%
                    Play: West Virginia +3.0 (-110)

                    361) West Virginia +3…(4%) via Pinnacle
                  • cfb
                    Game: (315) Michigan State at (316) Rutgers
                    Date/Time: Oct 9 2021 12:00 PM EDT
                    Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
                    Play Rating: 3%
                    Play: Rutgers +4.5 (-110)

                    316) Rutgers +4.5…(3%) via William Hill
                  • CFB
                    Game: (317) Connecticut at (318) Massachusetts
                    Date/Time: Oct 9 2021 3:30 PM EDT
                    Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
                    Play Rating: 4%
                    Play: Connecticut -165

                    317) Connecticut ML (-165)…(4%) via Draftkings-BOL
                  • cfb
                    Game: (345) San Jose State at (346) Colorado State
                    Date/Time: Oct 9 2021 3:30 PM EDT
                    Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
                    Play Rating: 3%
                    Play: Colorado State -130

                    346) Colorado St ML (-130)…(3%) via Pinnacle
                  • CFB
                    Game: (317) Connecticut at (318) Massachusetts
                    Date/Time: Oct 9 2021 3:30 PM EDT
                    Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
                    Play Rating: 4%
                    Play: Total Over 56.5 (-110)

                    317) Over 56.5 Connecticut-UMass…(4%) via Circa-Pinnacle
                  • CFB
                    Game: (339) Wyoming at (340) Air Force
                    Date/Time: Oct 9 2021 7:00 PM EDT
                    Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
                    Play Rating: 3%
                    Play: Total Under 47.5 (-115)

                    339) Under 47.5 (-115) Wyoming-Air Force…(3%) via Pinnacle-Draftkings
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                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 369690

                    #39
                    Dave Cokin:

                    UTSA +2.5
                    Marshall -19.
                    Troy -5.5
                    Texas Tech +2
                    Memphis +3.5
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                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 369690

                      #40
                      Hunt Valley Sports

                      12 Western Kentucky -3 ov UTSA 7:00pm

                      12 Nebraska +3 ov Michigan 7:30pm

                      10 USC -3 ov Utah 8:00pm

                      4 Straight parlay on Western KY, Nebraska, USC

                      7 Connecticut -3 ov U.Mass 3:30pm

                      7 Liberty -19.5 ov Middle Tennessee State 3:30pm

                      6 South Alabama -3.5 ov Texas State 7:00pm
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                      • dawggy
                        Senior Member
                        • Dec 2017
                        • 1770

                        #41
                        BTC SPORT

                        • Boomer Sooner
                          Game: (379) Oklahoma at (380) Texas
                          Date/Time: Oct 9 2021 12:00 PM EDT
                          Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
                          Play Rating: 3 units
                          Play: Total Over 64.0 (-110)

                          Oklahoma's offense certainly hasn't lived up to the hype thus far, but now that we're five weeks into the season, we have a lot more context for their opponents. West Virginia and Kansas State are both top-15 in rushing defense. We're going to find out a lot about Nebraska's defense today against Michigan, but there's a chance they're really good. The Sooners have played three legit defenses in the last three weeks, which has skewed our perception of this Oklahoma offense a little bit. This is a good buy-low opportunity. The Sooners are No. 5 in the country in offensive success rate. Texas is No. 111 in defensive success rate and No. 119 in passing success rate. We've got picture-perfect conditions in Dallas today, so weather won't be a concern of any kind. I think we're going to see some points in the Red River Showdown.
                        • RedHawks Rise
                          Game: (377) Miami Ohio at (378) Eastern Michigan
                          Date/Time: Oct 9 2021 3:30 PM EDT
                          Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
                          Play Rating: 4 units
                          Play: Miami Ohio -2.0 (-110)

                          Eastern Michigan has been a great road underdog, but it hasn't carried over to home games. The Eagles are 9-17 straight-up in their last 26 conference home games. Miami received an influx of talent on the offensive side of the ball with receiver Mac Hippenhammer transferring in from Penn State and running back Keyon Mozee arriving from Kansas State.
                          Eastern Michigan has put together some dreadful defensive performances this season, allowing 352 yards rushing to Wisconsin and 519 total yards to UMass (yes, UMass). Outside of that Wisconsin game, EMU's non-conference was dreadful. The Eagles played FCS-level St Francis, UMass and Texas State while Miami played Cincinnati, Minnesota and Army. The RedHawks have been battle-tested and I think they get the job done on the road. Lay the short number with Miami (Oh) on Saturday.
                        • Slow Start in Colorado Springs
                          Game: (339) Wyoming at (340) Air Force
                          Date/Time: Oct 9 2021 7:00 PM EDT
                          Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
                          Play Rating: 3 units
                          Play: 1H Total Under 23.5 (-105)

                          These two teams play at a snail's pace, and there are plenty of intangibles pointing toward a low scoring game. Wyoming is No. 106 in the country in plays per minute, and Air Force is No. 126. Wyoming had a bye last week, giving them an extra week to prepare for the option.
                          Air Force has a strong rush defense, allowing just 3.3 yards per carry this season. However, the Falcons can be beaten through the air as Utah State threw for 448 yards against them. Wyoming can't do that. These two teams didn't play last year, but in 2019, Wyoming’s defense held Air Force to 2.9 yards per carry on 56 rushing attempts. Air Force has held five of its six opponents scoreless in the first quarter this season. I think we see another slow start here. Take the first half under 23.5.
                        • Tide Keeps Rolling
                          Game: (387) Alabama at (388) Texas A&M
                          Date/Time: Oct 9 2021 8:00 PM EDT
                          Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
                          Play Rating: 4 units
                          Play: Alabama -18.0 (-110)

                          Each year, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook puts out their Games of the Year over the summer. These are games that you can bet months in advance of when they are actually played. When the SuperBook opened their Games of the Year market, Alabama was a -9.5 favorite in this one. Now, you have to lay 18 points. You might look at that and say, “Wow, that's a big adjustment.” You'd be right, but I actually don't think it's been adjusted enough.
                          Zach Calzada will be making his fourth start for A&M and he's been atrocious in his first three. Pro Football Focus released their mid-season quarterback grades, and they have him as the No. 109 quarterback out of 130, behind guys from UTEP, Bowling Green and Old Dominion. This Texas A&M offense is a mess right now.
                          So if we've got a point spread of -18 with a total of 51, oddsmakers are projecting a final score of about 34-17. If you've watched Calzada against Arkansas and Mississippi State, I think you can confidently say A&M is not getting to 17 points. Alabama is 8-5 against the spread in their last 13 SEC road games. Bryce Young has passed every test thus far. Kyle Field will be rockin' at the start of the game, but when it's 10-0 six minutes into the game, things will get quiet pretty quick. Lay the points with Alabama on Saturday.

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                        • FATMANWINS
                          Senior Member
                          • Aug 2017
                          • 1391

                          #42
                          ats baseball
                          4 braves

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                          • Can'tPickAWinner
                            Super Moderator
                            • Nov 2012
                            • 369690

                            #43
                            King Creole

                            3* Over 63.5 Texas/Oklahoma
                            3* Under 45 San Jose St./Colorado St.
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                            • Can'tPickAWinner
                              Super Moderator
                              • Nov 2012
                              • 369690

                              #44
                              Clay Travis- 35-21 record

                              Coastal Carolina -19 at Arkansas State
                              Stanford +12.5 at Arizona State
                              Oklahoma vs. Texas +3.5
                              Michigan State -4.5 at Rutgers
                              Maryland +21 at Ohio State
                              Georgia at Auburn +15
                              South Carolina at Tennessee -10.5
                              Vanderbilt at Florida -38
                              Arkansas +6 at Ole Miss
                              Penn State at Iowa, the under 42
                              LSU +3.5 at Kentucky and the under 50.5
                              Michigan at Nebraska +3.5
                              Alabama -17 at Texas A&M
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                              • Can'tPickAWinner
                                Super Moderator
                                • Nov 2012
                                • 369690

                                #45
                                Totals 4 U

                                2021 Red River Rivalry Super Total of the Year!!!!!
                                Oklahoma/Texas over 63 1/2

                                Early College Football Bonus Winners
                                Maryland/Ohio State under 71
                                South Carolina/Tennessee under 56 1/2
                                West Virginia/Baylor under 44
                                Arkansas/Mississippi under 66 1/2

                                October's College Football Watch & Win Total of the Month!!!!!
                                Boise State/BYU under 57 1/2

                                Mid-Day College Football Bonus Winners
                                Florida State/North Carolina under 64 1/2
                                Wake Forest/Syracuse under 58 1/2
                                Georgia/Auburn over 46 1/2
                                Penn State/Iowa under 41 1/2

                                2021 PAC 12 Conference Primetime Super Total of the Year!!!!!
                                Utah/USC over 52 1/2

                                Late College Football Bonus Winners
                                TCU/Texas Tech over 60 1/2
                                Michigan/Nebraska under 50
                                Alabama/Texas A&M under 51
                                UCLA/Arizona under 61
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