Tuesday 10/12/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Monday Myths: Quick Claim Returns, Good Bets?

---

October 11, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Horses who return quickly after being claimed are live bets.

Background:

There’s a school of thought that when a horse is claimed, often the new connections already have a race in mind for that runner. The sooner they return, the better, in terms of intent. A horse claimed and then put away for an extended period is assumed to have some physical issues the new barn is working out. After all, the claiming game is about acquiring, earning and moving runners in and out of your barn.

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at all horses claimed across North America in 2021. I then set the fliters for the amount of time it took to return to the races, separating them in week increments. The study found just over 9,400 horses to peruse the data.

//

All horses claimed last out returned to win their next start 15.9% with a $0.75 ROI for every $1 bet.

//

Horses claimed last out and returned within 0-13 days win their next start 17.1% with $.80 ROI.

Horses claimed last out and returned within 14-20 days win their next start 15.0% with $.76 ROI.

Horses claimed last out and returned within 21-27 days win their next start 14.9% with $.73 ROI.

Horses claimed last out and returned within 28-34 days win their next start 16.5% with $.75 ROI.

Horses claimed last out and returned within 35-41 days win their next start 16.9% with $.77 ROI.

Horses claimed last out and returned within 42-48 days win their next start 16.7% with $.78 ROI.

Horses claimed last out and returned within 49-55 days win their next start 19.1% with $.81 ROI.

Horses claimed last out and returned within 56-62 days win their next start 16.1% with $.70 ROI.

Horses claimed last out and returned within 63-69 days win their next start 12.8% with $.56 ROI.

Horses claimed last out and returned within 70 or more days win their next start 15.5% with $.74 ROI.

Overall Findings:

The optimum timeframe for success after the claim was 49-55 days both in terms of win percentage (19.1%, more than 2 percent better than any other layoff) and ROI ($0.81 for every $1 bet, slightly better than 0-13 days). The 0-13 day timeframe was second-highest in win % and in ROI. The weakest areas were in the 2-3 week range after being claimed at around 15.0%.

Bottom line:

Wheeling a horse back extremely quick off the claim is a positive sign, but once past that immediacy, the success actually builds to a best plan at the 7-week mark. This handicapping axiom is only somewhat true, but leans predominantly false.

Additional Details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, see which trainers have success off the claim at various times between the return, or how each of these time slots may change by the tracks you handicap.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

---

Presque Isle Downs - Race #4

#8 Ebb Tide	Think she has a right to be tough in this second career start after showing some good pressing pace in the debut run. She has turned in a best-of-20 work at Arlington since that try and is a big danger with any step forward.
#7 Baby No Worries	She's another who ran pretty well in her debut, but she gave away some ground late and had to rally on, and that seems to hint she'll be giving away a big first jump to the top choice today.
#5 Novel Idea	She has been a disappointment so far, but maybe she can wake up a bit as she puts her route pace to use on the cutback. Sharper trip wakes her up a bit?
Race Summary	Ebb Tide should be able to land a perfect trip while right up on the splits, and she draws well to watch everything unfold on her inside. I'd be happy to jump in at the 5/2 ML price.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#8 Orb of the Boro	His form can be all over the place at times, but he has run some decent races on synthetic footing and might be able to bounce back here at a square price.
#3 Straightoutadutton	He has some solid pace to put to use early, but he's meeting a couple other potential forward players and could be softened up a bit in the lane where he tends to give away ground late.
#2 Quartermaster	He's a reliable finishing type who might be able to save a bit of ground near the inside before launching his run. He'll probably offer a playable enough price with this group.
Race Summary	Orb of the Boro ran well in the past when trying synthetic surfaces, and he has some tactical pace that should lead to a dreamy trip from this outside draw. Best stuff would do.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#1 Save the Land	He drops hard for this while adding blinkers, and he might try to have a go of it early from the fence after chasing the splits last time out. Maybe he's able to shake free at some point and get brave?
#9 Wrote in Stone	There's nothing on his page to get excited about so far, but he's getting into a much easier spot while leaving Gulfstream, and he'll get blinkers on again. There's a chance the change of scenery and new footing will wake him up at a price.
#3 Bourbon Brown	Something like his last keeps him right in the mix again, but he has had a dozen chances and probably won't offer an appealing price with these. He can win this, but it's tough to get too excited.
Race Summary	Save the Land gets blinkers while dropping hard out of special weight company, and there isn't any seriously assertive early pace to deal with, so maybe he takes a shot for it out of the gate and never looks back.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

---

The Meadows - Race #3

#1 JEWEL'SBEWITHUS	Rallied into slow pace, rallied past stablemate in qualifier.
#2 FLIRTNROUNDTWN	No match for top one, but gets Lasix and gets Wrenn to drive.
#5 KEA ISLAND	Steady check-getter but hard to back at 0-for-27.
Race Summary	Jewel'sbewithus need not be much to defeat this field in her debut for Team Burke. She rallied to win in her qualifier and her sire was a Breeders Crown champion as a 2-year-old. Play 1-2 and 1-5 exactas.

Pocono Downs - Race #8

#3 OHARE HANOVER	Strong late kick, tries to shift out of 'second' gear.
#1 MOHAWK SEELSTER	Backed up through fast fractions, draws rail with hot driver.
#7 TUFFENUTOWEARPINK	Landed minor awards in last pair, Kakaley's choice on a double call.
Race Summary	Ohare Hanover rallied uncovered from last and finished a clear second to the 2-to-5 winner. He can upstage a series of recent runner-up finishes with a duplicate rally. Play 3-1 and 3-7 exactas.

Yonkers - Race #7

#1 BETTOR MEMORIES	Used early, led until late, another photo-finish for win could be in store.
#2 BILL HALEY N	Going well right now, got up for third in faster division of series.
#4 AFLAME HANOVER	Took money, finished behind top pair in last two starts.
Race Summary	Bettor Memories rushed to clear to the lead when he couldn't find an early seat, led to mid-stretch and held second behind the 2-1 pocket sitter. He draws the rail today in search of his 41st victory. Play 1-2, 1-3 and 1-4 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

---

Indiana Grand - Race #1

#1 Benny	Has taken on strong opposition and moves back to the main track after a turf attempt; solid player at this level.
#4 Tapit's Spirit	Was an impressive winner vs. N2L claimers last out and can be a threat out front.
#6 My Girl Lexi	Wore down rivals at Churchill last out and the 3-year-old filly is taking on veteran males.
Race Summary	Benny has battled with accomplished sprinters and should be able to handle these.

Indiana Grand - Race #2

#2 Off Ramp	Broke her maiden at first asking at Canterbury and didn't fire a Kentucky Downs, which is common; she moves over to the main track and can take it to this group early.
#4 Trade Secret	Was close in maiden races at Churchill and Saratoga and finally got it done at Monmouth; failed on the Kentucky Downs turf and can be a big player here.
#6 Bourbon Buns	Was along for third last time at Belterra in her first vs. winners; could rally into the exotics.
Race Summary	Off Ramp has exceptional speed and be an important player form the start; can dig in when challenged.

Indiana Grand - Race #6

#7 Judy's Market	Was outstanding in three of her last five and was claimed last out by Langemeier, who is hitting at 30 percent; can handle the step up in class.
#8 Betcha	Was an easy winner the last time she was at this level; tried much tougher last time and failed.
#1 Jump Right In	Breezed home to easy wins in her last three races, the latest at this level; running very well and would not be a surprise.
Race Summary	Judy's Market has taken big steps up from the bottom level and is running extremely well; can be a great trip in this one.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes

Finger Lakes - Race 8	EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum) * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 8-9)
Allowance • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $25,900 • Post: 4:33P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * ADDILYN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. ALLURE FORTUNE: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. GONE AND FORGOTTEN: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. SHESASUPERFREAK: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. TWICE SMITTEN: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
5	ADDILYN	6/1	5/1
7	ALLURE FORTUNE	7/2	6/1
2	GONE AND FORGOTTEN	5/2	7/1
3	SHESASUPERFREAK	6/1	10/1
6	TWICE SMITTEN	12/1	10/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	SHESASUPERFREAK	3	6/1	Front-runner	73	70	76.6	59.6	52.1
7	ALLURE FORTUNE	7	7/2	Front-runner	77	78	73.0	65.0	59.0
4	DOYOUKNOWWHOIAM	4	10/1	Front-runner	71	71	60.2	66.6	56.1
8	RUSH ON BY	8	4/1	Alternator/Front-runner	74	79	0.0	0.0	0.0
2	GONE AND FORGOTTEN	2	5/2	Stalker	68	77	44.1	65.3	59.3
5	ADDILYN	5	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	76	80	48.6	71.4	66.4
6	TWICE SMITTEN	6	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	73	70	47.0	66.6	56.6
1	QUEEN ARELLA	1	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	72	67	85.4	46.4	36.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Grants Pass

Grants Pass - Race 1	$2 WPS / $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $2 Daily Double (Races 1-2) $1 Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)
Allowance • 350 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $6,500 • Post: 5:15P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * LOUISANA BUNNY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. JESS CANDY LIPS: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. NO JUANS FOOL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CUTE GURL: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. HEZ OUR JOY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
6	LOUISANA BUNNY	9/2	4/1
4	JESS CANDY LIPS	5/2	6/1
3	NO JUANS FOOL	6/1	9/1
5	CUTE GURL	7/2	10/1
2	HEZ OUR JOY	9/2	10/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	EL MORO PRIETO	1	8/1	Slow	72	68	8.1	0.0	0.0
2	HEZ OUR JOY	2	9/2	Average	79	63	5.3	0.0	0.0
3	NO JUANS FOOL	3	6/1	Average	69	70	4.6	0.0	0.0
4	JESS CANDY LIPS	4	5/2	Average	74	75	4.1	0.0	0.0
5	CUTE GURL	5	7/2	Average	78	64	4.2	0.0	0.0
6	LOUISANA BUNNY	6	9/2	Average	85	75	5.2	0.0	0.0
7	KR RUNAWAY FOOSE	7	8/1	Average/Trouble-prone	59	59	6.0	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Zia Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 11 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $36000 Class Rating: 60

FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 FOXY RED 8/5
# 11 WILEO PROCEED 30/1
# 4 SUERTUDA 20/1

FOXY RED looks to be a very good contender. Should go to the front end and should never look back. Trainer boasts strong win figures at this distance and surface. Difficult to pass on this filly with Negron in the saddle. WILEO PROCEED - Sedillo is trying to win with this one by bringing her back so soon. SUERTUDA - Has a very strong shot in this contest if you like back class. Can't overlook the connections here, a 23 winning percentage, one of the top at getting into the winner's circle.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Mountaineer Park - Race #5 - Post: 8:40pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,100 Class Rating: 82

Rating:

#2 MR. TRIPLEDOUBLE (ML=2/1)
#6 PAISANO (ML=6/1)


MR. TRIPLEDOUBLE - Have to make this gelding a contender; he comes off a solid race on Oct 3rd. The 82 last race speed fig looks strong in the TrackMaster PPs. PAISANO - Flores is back for another event today after sitting atop this animal for the first ride on Sep 15th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 HOT SOCKS (ML=3/1), #4 BEAU BOOK (ML=5/1), #7 KANDY CHARGE (ML=6/1),

HOT SOCKS - Would have to move up off that fifth place finish last time to make an impact here. BEAU BOOK - Didn't hit the board on Sep 10th at Belterra Park. Followed it up with another lackluster performance. KANDY CHARGE - This entrant likes to be on the board, but doesn't usually finish first. Don't put in the top spot. Finished second in his most recent effort with a mediocre speed fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this group.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #2 MR. TRIPLEDOUBLE on the nose if you can get odds of 3/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Presque Isle Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 6 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 85

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 12 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 HEAT OF THE NIGHT 9/5
# 1 GENERALONAMISSION 8/1
# 2 MY PAL DAL 10/1

I think HEAT OF THE NIGHT is a solid choice. Has garnered sound speed figures in dirt route races in the past. With a strong jockey who has won at a respectable 33 percent rate over the last month. This has to be one of the top picks. Had one of the top Speed Figures of this group in his last contest. GENERALONAMISSION - Gallardo will probably be able to get this gelding to break out early in this contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Thistledown - Race #7 - Post: 3:50pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 66

Rating:

#1 JERSEY BOUNCE (ML=6/1)
#1A TING TANG (ML=6/1)
#5 CUE THE BAND (ML=7/2)


JERSEY BOUNCE - Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this campaigner is meeting an easier bunch than in the last race at Thistledown. TING TANG - Diaz is back for another contest today after racing atop this animal for the 1st ride on September 8th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. This thoroughbred picks up a lot of money per race. I believe she can increase the lifetime bankroll in this event. CUE THE BAND - Won her last after shipping in. I like her again. You'll be generating money right and left by turning your racing money onto this jockey/handler combination. Rodriguez comes to ride after getting to know the filly in the last race. That 62 fig this filly notched in her last clash tells me she's a major player today. Shanyfelt brings her right back. I advise you stick with this live filly.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 HIGHLY EXPLOSIVE (ML=5/2), #2 BEEBLEGEE (ML=3/1), #3 HELLS BELLS HELEN (ML=9/2),

HIGHLY EXPLOSIVE - Can't really back the favorite when she has multiple failures as the chalk. That was simply not a very good exhibition in the last affair. The speed rating last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the class rating of today's contest. Mark this thoroughbred as a possibly overvalued contestant. BEEBLEGEE - This horse ran a quite unimpressive speed rating last time around the track. She shouldn't improve and will probably get beat in today's event running that figure. HELLS BELLS HELEN - Hasn't hit the board in any sprint races of late. Improbable to see her doing it this time around either. That was simply not a very good display in the last clash.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#1 Entry is going to be the play if we are getting 7/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **

---

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price

Oct 12 '21, 2:05 PM in 51m
Tennis | Matteo Berrettini vs Taylor Fritz
Play on: Taylor Fritz +250 at William Hill

1* Free Pick on Taylor Fritz +250

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

Oct 12 '21, 2:07 PM in 53m
MLB | Astros vs White Sox
Play on: White Sox -110 at linepros

My free play is on the Chi White Sox at 2:07 ET.
The White Sox were facing elimination on Sunday but Chicago kept its season alive with a resounding 12-6 victory over the visiting Houston Astros. I had Chicago in that game and here is a good part of what I wrote, regarding Game 3.
The Chicago White Sox broke an 11-year playoff drought in 2020 (35-25) and this season won the AL Central with a 93-69 record, giving the team its first division title since 2008. Chicago's opponent in this ALDS is the Houston Astros, the team everyone now loves to hate. Houston won 101, 103 and 107 games from 2017-19 but a sign-stealing scandal changed the way the team's accomplishments were viewed. The Astros snuck into the 2020 postseason at 29-31 but then made it all the way to Game 7 of the ALCS, before losing to the Rays. The Astros are back in their FIFTH straight postseason, after going 95-67.
This best of five series opened Thursday, with Houston winning handily, 6-1, a game I passed. However, I didn't miss out on Houston's 9-4 Game 2 win, which puts the team ONE win away from an ALDS sweep and a FIFTH straight berth in the ALCS. Houston will visit the Chicago White Sox on Sunday night for Game 3 of the teams' ALDS with a 2-0 lead, clicking on the mound and at the plate. Houston pitchers have allowed just five runs and all 18 hits given up have been SINGLES. The Astros have plated 15 runs, while batting .308, including .421 (8 of 19) with RISP. The two playoff wins makes Houston 6-0 in six games at Minute Maid Park in 2021, as the Astros have outscored the White Sox 42-13! However, as Chicago shortstop Tim Anderson said, "Ain't nothing like being at home!" The White Sox expect to be buoyed by a fan base awaiting the franchise's first home playoff game since 2008 but they also know they need more than singles to turn the series around.
Well, home was certainly 'sweet' for the White Sox on Sunday night. After falling behind 6-1, Chicago came back to win 12-6 by pounding on 16 hits, including four HRs (went 8 of 15 with RISP). Starter Cease allowed three runs in 1.2 innings and Kopech allowed three more in 2.1 innings. However, four relievers held Houston not only scoreless over the last five innings but also hitless! The Houston bats had 10 hits apiece in Games 1 and 2, scoring 15 runs and then added six runs in four innings in Game 3, before 'DISAPPEARING!
Houston had a chance to close out Chicago in Monday's Game 4 but it was postponed due to weather concerns. Astros manager Dusty Baker wasted no time after Monday's official postponement of his team's potential series-clinching game to announce he'd be sending right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. to the mound in hopes his team can "get it done" in Game 4. Baker applauded MLB's decision to call off Monday's game, which he thought was the fairest thing to do in that it gave both staffs a chance to lick their wounds after the teams had combined for 38 runs in the first three games. "It gives both sides another chance at resting their bullpen," he observed, adding that he'll have all hands on deck for Game 4. "We'll see the effects of it (Tuesday)." Tony La Russa and the White Sox have elected to stick with original Game 4 starter Carlos Rodon (13-8, 2.37 ERA).
McCullers was 13-5 during the regular season and owned the lowest ERA (3.16) among Houston starters. The veteran of 15 postseason appearances with a 2.87 ERA, McCullers pitched brilliantly in Game 1 of the series, shutting out the White Sox over 6.2 innings on four hits without issuing any walks. Rodon entered the season with just a 29-33 (4.14 ERA) career record but his seventh season began with a 'BANG!" He opened 5-0 with an 0.58 ERA, including an April 14th no-hitter against Cleveland (missed a perfect game with a hit batter in the 9th!). The concern here is that Rodon pitched sparingly during the stretch run, as he combated arm fatigue and soreness He has pitched just eight innings since Sep 20, while losing velocity from his fastball.
Manager Tony La Russa said, "He will watch closely." I'll note that Rodon has said, "The last few days, it seemed like I've turned a corner. Ball is coming out good. I feel good. I feel ready." Rodon has started seven career games against the Astros and is 2-0 but more notably, owns a 1.55 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in those seven starts! I had selected the White Sox to win Monday and while McCullers makes that task tougher this afternoon, I will stick with Chicago to send this series back to Houston Wednesday for a Game 5.
Good luck...Larry

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals Guru

Oct 12 '21, 2:07 PM in 53m
MLB | HOU vs CWS
Play on: OVER 8½ -105

Free Total Annihilator On Astros vs White Sox over 8½ -105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover

Oct 12 '21, 2:07 PM in 53m
MLB | Astros vs White Sox
Play on: White Sox -106 at pinnacle

I like the White Sox's chances at home in this do-or-die Game 4 going with Carlos Rodon. I certainly respect Lance McCullers Jr. He's proven himself as a big-game pitcher. The White Sox couldn't touch him this past Thursday. That was in Houston. Chicago has won 68 percent of its last 74 home games when facing a righty starter. The Astros have lost five straight road games. They are 1-5 in their last six road games against the White Sox. Rodon pitched 14 innings against the Astros this season. He gave up one run in those two starts. I consider Rodon to be the White Sox's best starter. He led Chicago starters with a 2.37 ERA. Rodon should be good for five effective innings. He's backed by a rested and strong bullpen.