Thursday 10/14/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-14-2021, 06:03 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #3

#2 Pratt	He has a little bit of mid-range price appeal with these, as he's capable of sitting a bit closer in the early going today than he did last time out. A more tactical trip might give him a chance to bring a better effort.
#1 Extrasexybigdaddee	His synthetic form is really solid, but he has been beaten twice here as the chalk at 1/2 and 1/5 in a couple of his recent starts, so I think it's fair to try to beat him here.
#3 McSteamy	He can be a bit hit or miss, but his better tries stack up nicely with these after finishing between the top pair in the same common race.
Race Summary	Pratt should be a nice number after finishing behind a couple of these last time out when racing from a bit too far off the pace. Easy to see him finding a decent spying trip today.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#6 Zip Line to Heaven	Decent lean to this guy on the hike after a a couple of nice efforts with cheaper on the turf at Colonial. He ran pretty well in his only synthetic try at Woodbine, and and he should get a great trip while pressing the pace.
#8 Patrol	He's another class riser who brings solid recent form, and he earned this step up after posting a commanding win at the $8,000 level in the first start for the new team. He's protected today and a big danger if he holds form.
#5 Ribbons and Medals	His best stuff keeps him in the game today, but he has a tendency to give away ground late in many of his starts, and I don't think he's going to offer the right kind of price to play today.
Race Summary	Zip Line to Heaven and Patrol step up in class to this allowance spot, but the former might be a better price on the board and can conceivably take another small step forward in this third start as a 4yo.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#9 English Laughter	He hasn't turned in anything too solid in two starts for the new barn, but he turned in a couple of decent efforts here in the last few months and should be a decent price to close the night.
#3 Kikinboy	That local two-back try would make him pretty tough here, as he produced that effort against a better group while running 10 furlongs. Wouldn't want too short a price, though.
#7 Big Rig	He looks like a useful underneath player with really reliable form, but he's almost sure to find a couple of these too tough tonight. Must use in the gimmicks.
Race Summary	English Laughter is worth a price look here while getting back over the local footing. He has been running quite a bit in recent months, so there's a chance his form is just spent, but he's worth exactly one look here for the new barn while getting a change in scenery.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-14-2021, 06:04 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #2

#6 I'M DONE TALKING	Worst of the trips of the contenders who reunite today, Tetrick's choice.
#2 IDEAL BUBBY	Hard used to make the lead, slowed it down, tired in the stretch.
#1 LIVINGTHEDREAM	Made middle move to clear lead, held second, draws rail again.
Race Summary	I'm Done Talking was pinned in third when the winner ranged up alongside and kept her there as she tried to get into the outer flow at the 3/4-mile mark. She got out on the final turn and finished with a rush while 3-wide to just miss second. Bet on her to win and place against many of the same rivals.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1

#10 JUJU HANOVER	On the improve, keeping good company, post the concern.
#1 DROPTHERAKEFREDDY	Improved second out try against promising Beach Glass (see 9th race).
#6 AINT HE SPECIAL	Seeks re-run of race two back, when he set the pace and held second.
Race Summary	JuJu Hanover didn't lose any ground through a :56 back half two starts ago en route to posting his top speed figure. He raced up close before mishap occurred last out, now has post 10 to deal with. Play a 1-6-10 exacta box.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #9

#4 BEACH GLASS	Ascent to stardom should roll on if first two races are an indicator.
#9 TRAVEL BAN	Took the money and ran to front-end victory after 11 months away.
#6 DARK MOVES	Earned check at most stops during busy schedule.
Race Summary	Beach Glass proved versatile and dominant in back-to-back wins to start his carrer. No reason to think he won't three-peat, but don't expect 2-1 odds. Play 4-6 and 4-9 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-14-2021, 06:06 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Belmont Park - Race #3

#4 Copa	Easily beat $14K N3L claimers last out and has won three of his last tour; claimed by Laxmeter stable and it looks like he can handle the step back up.
#6 Jake Rocks	Had two excellent chances at this level in his last two, and he was second and third; fits well here, just needs to get over the hump and improves on his 1-for-25 record.
#1 One Whirlwind Ride	Was along too late last time in his second breaking his maiden at Monmouth; will follow a fast pace and will be around late.
Race Summary	Copa has been dominant against lower claimers and there's really no reason to believe he can continue that good form at this level.

Belmont Park - Race #7

#5 Therisastormbrewin	Needs to get some confidence back on the front end and has a great chance of it today; makes his third off the claim for Nevin and has been on the board in three of four over this strip.
#2 Lokoya Road	Was up in time vs. N2L foes at Saratoga and gets hot-riding Davis aboard.
#6 Bingo John	Drops out of a NY-bred stakes race and clearly wasn't ready for that level; won a state-bred allowance two back, and that would probably translate into a contending position for this price.
Race Summary	Thereisastormbrewin has exceptional speed and be in a comfortable position out front; he usually has something left when that's the case. Comes off a good third at Laurel and was second the last time he tried Belmont, which was in July.

Belmont Park - Race #8

#4 Windfall Profit	Had a rough trip, rallied into second in upper stretch and then finished third from off the pace, which usually is not her spot; likes to be close up early and has a good chance to get a front-running trip.
#2 Golden Plume	Finished mid-pack in her last out and can improve with a better trip; was an easy maiden win at Tampa Bay in her debut.
#3 Messidor	Was a closing third, beaten by a neck, in her first U.S. start; can be a strong factor in his second start for Clement after racing in Europe for Joseph O'Brien.
Race Summary	Windfall Profit had an awkward start and was ride throughout last time; usually breaks well and can get back to that today.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-14-2021, 10:52 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Arapahoe Park

Arapahoe Park - Race 8	W/P/S/ Quinela/Exacta/ Trifecta/ Superfecta/ Daily Double (Races 8-9)
Claiming $5,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 68 • Purse: $11,400 • Post: 3:06P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD NON WINNERS OF TWO RACES LIFETIME. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. UNCLE TAP is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PRAIRIE SQUALL: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. HOLY MUCHA CHO: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. UNCLE TAP: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. THE GREATEST EAGLE: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
2	PRAIRIE SQUALL	12/1	5/1
1	HOLY MUCHACHO	20/1	6/1
6	UNCLE TAP	10/1	6/1
9	THE GREATEST EAGLE	4/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	UNCLE TAP	6	10/1	Alternator/Front-runner	58	59	35.8	55.6	46.1
7	HESALITTLE SHADY	7	9/2	Stalker	60	45	70.3	44.6	34.6
9	THE GREATEST EAGLE	9	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	69	65	30.3	35.0	28.0
2	PRAIRIE SQUALL	2	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	70	67	21.3	58.4	49.4
1	HOLY MUCHACHO	1	20/1	Trailer	81	56	48.7	61.2	55.7
4	LET IT RIP	4	7/2	Trailer	68	62	17.4	44.8	34.8
5	PREFERRED PROSPECT	5	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	53	36.0	27.5	16.0
3	AMBER WAVES	3	5/2	Alternator/Non-contender	60	49	22.0	40.8	27.8
8	E'S BIRTHDAY BOY	8	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	48	48	21.2	24.4	10.4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-14-2021, 11:24 AM

Hunter Price

Oct 14 '21, 2:05 PM in 2h
Tennis | Cameron Norrie vs Diego Scwartzman
Play on: Diego Scwartzman -120 at Mirage

1* Free Pick on Diego Scwartzman -120

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-14-2021, 11:24 AM

Nick Borrman

Event: Charley Hoffman vs Brian Harman
Sport/League: GLF

Date/Time: October 14, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: Charley Hoffman (-105)
The CJ Cup
Tournament Matchup
TAKE CHARLEY HOFFMAN
Line Parameter: 2% to -125

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-14-2021, 11:25 AM

Nick Borrman

Event: Kevin Na vs Patrick Reed
Sport/League: GLF

Date/Time: October 14, 2021 2PM EDT
Play: Kevin Na (-105)
The CJ Cup
Tournament Matchup
Both players missed the cut last week at the Shriners Open, but I see it as just a blip on the radar for Na while for Reed it's been a long run of some missed time due to a pretty serious bout of COVID mixed with some bad results when he did tee it up.
In six starts prior to last week, Kevin Na had some very good results, making the cut in each tournament two Runner-ups, a T3, a T8 and his worst finish a T23. During that timeframe, Kevin Na ranks #1 in this field in SG, averaging +2.05 per round, ahead of all the big names teeing it up this week.
For Reed, he played and finished T31 at the WGC Fedex in the beginning of August before coming down with a very bad case of COVID. He was unable to return as he apparently had it pretty bad and was unable to get his strength back. He missed the first two Fedex Cup playoff events, but did manage to play in the Tour Championship where he finished 25th out of 30 players. He failed to make the Ryder Cup, even as a captain's pick which was a huge letdown as Reed loves playing for team USA and has earned the nickname Captain America.
Now with missing the cut last week in his first start this season. there are no signs pointing in the right direction for Reed so I'll gladly grab Na here at a cheap price.
TAKE KEVIN NA
Line Parameter: 2% to -125

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-14-2021, 11:25 AM

Las Vegas Cris

Event: (7063) Harold Varner III at (7064) Talor Gooch
Sport/League: GLF

Date/Time: October 14, 2021 3PM EDT
Play: Talor Gooch -125
Talor Gooch -125 Varner III Following a narrative that has padded the bank account for several years in this matchup. Little Liam (HV4) was welcomed into the Varner family this Sunday. As happy as we all are for Harold, this is a great opportunity to make some money fading the tired dad. This angle was successful with several players in the past couple of years (Sergio, Rory, Jason Day; to name a few). Obviously, there must be some merit on the opposition to put our hard-earned $ on the line. If Varner was playing a nobody like me, it would be idiotic to lay money on myself. But we are lucky here that he is being offered against Taylor Gooch. In the last 3 months, Gooch ranks 10th in Approach, 13th tee-to-green, 15th ARG, and 15th in SG total. Varner has not been a slouch as his numbers are similar with the exception of being 23rd on approach. Gooch finished 4th at the Fortinet and 11th last week at the Shriners. Varner finished 16th at the Fortinet and did not play last week. There is always the chance that Varner gets off to a bad start and withdraws to be with his family. Yet, even without the baby narrative, I would be leaning Gooch in this matchup – so I will stick with what has worked in the past and back Gooch over Varner.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-14-2021, 11:26 AM

Andrew McInnis

Event: (63) Montreal Canadiens at (64) Buffalo Sabres
Sport/League: NHL

Date/Time: October 14, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: Montreal Canadiens -140
The Montreal Canadiens are in Buffalo Thursday to play the Sabres after dropping their season opener to the Toronto Maple Leafs. What better way to bounce back off a loss than to play the Buffalo Sabres? The Sabres are a disaster right now on all fronts, goaltending, forward pieces, depth at defence, an injured superstar, and they are going to have an incredibly tough time out the gate this season. As for the Canadiens, despite scoring just one goal, they created plenty of chances in Wednesday's game against the Leafs. The Canadiens had a decent roster shake-up in the off-season, nothing too large, but enough to change up the lines quite a bit. With a game under their belt with their new linemates, I expect the chemistry to be ever better tonight and for the Canadiens to finish some of their passing plays with goals tonight. This is a scenario I often look at to start a year or come off a sizeable break, such as the holiday break, playing against a team that hasn't played yet. Although it's a back-to-back for the Habs, it's early in the season, so that shouldn't be a factor.
Play the Habs at a great price.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-14-2021, 11:26 AM

Tony Finn

Event: (113) Navy at (114) Memphis
Sport/League: CFB

Date/Time: October 14, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: Total Over 55.0 (-110)
The Memphis Tigers and Navy Midshipmen square off on Thursday night in Tennessee for a nationally televised AAC matchup. The Tigers' loss Saturday to Tulsa was their third straight, and they have begun to change the offensive scheme now that QB Seth Henigan has grown as a freshman. Navy is one of the lowest-scoring and predictable offenses in the football universe.
The Midshipmen average a mere 3.9 ypp ranking in the bottom 5% of the FBS. Navy scores 0.246 points per play, and the passing attack is throwing for just 63 ypg. Memphis compiled 614 yards of offense vs. Tulsa. The Tigers ran 99 plays scoring just 29 pts and had only 13 pts entering the 4th quarter of Saturday's 35-29 loss. Memphis kicker Davis Kemp missed two field goals and a PAT.
Tigers' QB Henigan has 97 pass attempts in Memphis' last two games after throwing 118 the first four combined. The Memphis offense will move from balanced to pass-first and do so at tempo. Navy has surrendered 49, 23, 28, 30, and 31 in their 1-4 start to the season. Free Pick is a play over the total of 55.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-14-2021, 11:26 AM

The Prez

Event: (111) Georgia Southern at (112) South Alabama
Sport/League: CFB

Date/Time: October 14, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: South Alabama -3.0 (-110)
111 Georgia Southern Eagles at 112 South Alabama Jaguars -3, 50

The Georgia Southern Eagles visit Mobile for a Sun Belt event squaring off against host South Alabama. The wide receiver rich Jaguars and the rush-heavy Eagles are league rivals with seriously different schemes and ideas on how to orchestrate winning football.

On Saturday, the Eagles fell to Troy by a 27-24 final stretching their record to a 2-4 mark overall and 1-2 in conference play. South' Bama lost at Texas State in fourth overtime by virtue of a Brady McBride successful two-point running conversion resulting in a 33-31 victory for the Bobcats.

The Eagles have a tradition-rich history of being a college-rushing juggernaut. The Eagles average 253.3 rushing yards per game, which ranks No. 7 in the country and second in the Sun Belt. The Jaguars depend on their talented receiving corps to push points to the scoreboard. The Free Pick is a play on USA holding serve on their home grass and finishing the season with a remaining schedule of games they will be favored in, resulting in a holiday bowl invitation.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-14-2021, 11:27 AM

Andy Lang

Event: (109) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (110) Philadelphia Eagles
Sport/League: NFL

Date/Time: October 14, 2021 8PM EDT
Play: Jalen Hurts O26.5 Pass Completions -115
Jalen Hurts has only cleared 26.5 completions in 2 of his 5 starts so far this season, however Thursday night against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be a different story. All 5 opposing quarterbacks have surpassed this completions total against Tampa Bay as they have allowed 32.4 completions per game. There are multiple factors contributing to this happening on a week to week basis. The first being that the Bucs are averaging the 3rd most points scored per game at 33.4, which forces teams to abandon their running game and throw in an attempt to keep up. The main contribution factor is that the Bucs are literally allow the most passing yards per game at 314.4 while simultaneously having the best run defense allowing only 45.8 rushing yards a game. Tampa Bay has been even worse against the pass recently due to injuries to multiple defensive backs and will now also be without the services of star linebacker Lavonte David. Philadelphia is also well suited to complete multiple short passes with tight ends Zach Ertz and David Goedert, pass catching running back Miles Sanders as well as wide receiver Devonta Smith. The Eagles aren't committed to the run as most weeks Jalen Hurts himself leads the team in rushing with number one running back Miles Sanders averaging only 10 carries a game. One of the most consistent prop bets week to week has been Bucs opposing quarterbacks completions or attempts and nothing should change this week resulting in Jalen Hurts competing at least 27 passes to cash this ticket.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-14-2021, 11:42 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Laurel

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Allowance - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $40000 Class Rating: 84

FOR RESTRICTED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOR MD BRED OR MD SIRED HORSES WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A STATE BRED OR STATE SIRED RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, OR STARTER AND WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN,CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 AWARD WANTED 7/2
# 4 PRINCESS KOKACHIN 9/5
# 1 COMBAT QUEEN 5/2

I think AWARD WANTED is a solid choice. Robb has a strong win percent with horses racing in dirt sprint races. Have to bet on this filly with the sound earnings per start in dirt sprint contests. Could beat this group given the 81 speed rating garnered in her last outing. PRINCESS KOKACHIN - Has been constatntly running well as of late. Must be given consideration here on the basis of the numbers in the speed section alone. COMBAT QUEEN - Has competitive Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet in this event. Earned a solid Equibase speed fig in the last race. Can run another good one in this affair.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-14-2021, 01:52 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Belmont Park - Race #6 - Post: 3:15pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $37,000 Class Rating: 67

Rating:

#8 KNOW IT ALL RED (ML=6/1)
#1 REELEY PSYCHED (ML=15/1)
#2 DOM'S FEISTY GIRL (ML=3/1)

KNOW IT ALL RED - I think this filly is ready to run a good one. She's had enough races since the layoff and should be fit. She has the highest earnings per race. Take a long look at this thoroughbred. REELEY PSYCHED - Hernandezmoren is back for another event today after sitting atop this animal for the first try on September 17th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. This filly usually does her best running late. Look for her far back early in the race and finishing strongly on the tiring speed horses. I like horses that return to a similar class level after dropping at least five Equibase class figure points like this one did last time around the track. I believe she'll be competitive at this class level. Last ran at Belmont Park and finished fourth. Reviewing her Past Performances, I see she was close at the end, within five of the winner. DOM'S FEISTY GIRL - Faced tougher last out at Belmont Park. Based on class figures, this is a weaker field, so I will put this horse on my list of top contenders.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 MYRA FLEENER (ML=7/2), #3 STARSHIP ROGUE (ML=5/1), #9 CAPTIVATING CARA (ML=8/1),

MYRA FLEENER - Almost certainly won't make much of an impression in today's event. STARSHIP ROGUE - Don't believe this pony is worth 5/1 in this race. CAPTIVATING CARA - You think this horse is going to win just because she's always close. Just doesn't finish on top often. Don't believe this less than sharp equine will make an impact in today's race. That last speed rating was substandard when compared with today's class rating.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - DOM'S FEISTY GIRL - With the highest last speed rating of 71, this filly looks exceptional against these thoroughbreds.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #8 KNOW IT ALL RED on the win end if we get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,8] Total Cost: $6

Thursday 10/14/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Thursday 10/14/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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