Service Plays Sunday 10/17/21

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-12-2021, 04:40 AM

HITMAN | NFL Sides - Sunday, Oct 17 2021 9:30AM
251 MIA -3.0 (-110)BetOnline vs 252 JAC double-dime bet

Analysis: Trying to get a little in front of injury news as all reports say it’s likely that Tua is activated for this game. I personally made this number Miami -3.5 with Brissett at QB and -4.5 with Tua, so regardless it has value but obviously would prefer Tua at quarterback.

Jacksonville is a team that has lost 20 straight games, and is now dealing with a locker room that is absolutely divided going by all credible reports. They are dealing with injuries to two of their more important players in Brandon Linder and Myles Jack now as well.

**Yellow** · 10-13-2021, 11:20 AM

Essler 3* GOM

Cowboys Under 50

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-15-2021, 09:03 PM

Jeff Ma- (4-1 last week)
Seahawks
Dolphins
Chargers
Cardinals
Patriots

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-15-2021, 09:05 PM

Teddy Covers

3% Chicago Bears +5' (-105)
3% Houston Texans +10 (-110)
4% Denver Broncos 1H -3 (-105)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-15-2021, 09:06 PM

Colin Cowturd

RAVENS
LIONS
BROWNS
PATS
STEELERS

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-15-2021, 09:06 PM

Scott Spreitzer

6* New England +3.5
3* Cleveland -3
3* Baltimore -2.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-15-2021, 09:06 PM

Vernon Croy

7* Green Bay -5
4* Cleveland -3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-15-2021, 09:06 PM

Ben Burns

Jaguars +3.5 vs Miami
Under 43 Texans/Colts
Browns -2.5 vs Cardinals
Patriots +4.5 vs Cowboys

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-15-2021, 09:07 PM

HITMAN | NFL Sides - Sunday, Oct 17 2021 1:00PM
255 GBP -4.5 (-110)Southpoint vs 256 CHI double-dime bet

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-15-2021, 09:07 PM

HITMAN | NFL Total - Sunday, Oct 17 2021 1:00PM
261 LAC / 262 BAL OVER 51.5 Circa Sportsdouble-dime bet

Analysis: One of my big regrets from last week was not playing the over in Cleveland against LA. One of my handicaps was the fact that both teams were so analytically driven, that it would lead to more aggressive play calling and fourth down decision making which ultimately leads to less punts and field goals (which typically leads to more points). This week, I am not hesitating on backing the over between two of the most aggressive decision making teams in the NFL.

The Ravens offense is more reliant on the pass than ever, as Baltimore's situation neutral pass rate is now at 51.2%, which is an 8% increase from last season. Lamar Jackson has responded by playing at an MVP level. Not only should Lamar be able to throw on a Chargers defense that allowed Baker Mayfield to throw 305 yards and two touchdowns, but the Ravens should be able to have rushing success against a run defense that has allowed an NFL high 5.6 YPC.

Justin Herbert has been playing out of his mind for the Chargers, and the Chargers are in the top 8 of situation neutral pace. Baltimore's pass defense has played well against the injured and subpar passing offenses of Denver and Detroit, but struggled mightily in other contests against Vegas, KC, and Indy. The Ravens are 27th in YPA and YPC allowed through the air

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-15-2021, 09:07 PM

The Ravens clawed back from a 16-point deficit last night to beat the Colts 31-25 in overtime on Monday Night Football. With the win, the Ravens saved teaser bettors (-7.5 to -1.5) and also those who took Baltimore in survivor. However, the Colts managed to cover the spread (+ 7.5). With Indianapolis covering, dogs improve to 45-35 ATS (56 percent) this season, with road dogs improving to 30-19 ATS (61 percent). Primetime dogs are now 9-6 ATS (60 percent).

Early NFL Week 6 Sharp Action

Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars

This early morning London showdown features two teams with a combined record of 1-9. The Dolphins (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) have dropped four straight after beating the Patriots 17-16 in the season opener. Miami just got waxed by the Bucs 45-17, failing to cover as 11-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Jaguars (0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS) are one of only two winless teams in the NFL, along with the Lions. Jacksonville just fell to Tennessee 37-19, failing to cover as 4.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Miami listed as a 3-point road favorite. Early money has faded the hapless Jags and pushed the Dolphins from -3 to -3.5. London favorites are 16-10 ATS (62 percent) since 2007. Also, teams off a blowout loss of 20-points or more (like the Dolphins) are 9-2 ATS this season and roughly 55% ATS over the past decade. Sharps have also hit the over, driving the total up from 44.5 to 45.5. London overs are 13-8 (62 percent) since 2012.

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens

This heavyweight showdown between divisional leaders could be a possible playoff preview. The Chargers (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) have won three straight and just edged the Browns 47-42 last week, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Ravens (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) have won four straight, including a big 31-25 come-from-behind win over the Colts last week, although Baltimore failed to cover as 7.5-point home favorites. This line opened with the Ravens listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Early respected money has pounced on the Chargers getting the hook, dropping most books down from 3.5 to 3. Road dogs are 30-19 ATS (61 percent) this season. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 22-8 ATS (73 percent). Los Angeles also enjoys a rest advantage as the Ravens are on a short week having played on Monday night.

Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns

This non-conference matchup pits two of the top scoring offenses against each other. The Cardinals (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) are the last remaining unbeaten team in the NFL and just edged the 49ers 17-10 last week, covering s 6-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Browns (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) just lost to the Chargers 47-42, failing to cover as 2.5-point road dogs. The loss snapped a three-game win streak for Cleveland. This line opened with the Browns listed as a 3-point home favorite. With most teams receiving roughly 3-point for home field advantage, oddsmakers are pretty much saying this game would be a pick'em on a neutral field. Sharp money has pounced on Arizona as a dog, dropping the Cardinals from + 3 to + 2.5. Short road dogs + 3 or less are 11-3 ATS (79 percent) this season. Pros have hammered this under, dropping the total from 54 to 50.5. The forecast calls for 15 MPH winds at the Dawg Pound.

More early Week 6 moves
Lions 3.5 to 3 vs Bengals
Cowboys -2 to -4.5 at Patriots
Steelers -3.5 to -5 vs Seahawks
Bills -3 to -5.5 at Titans
Broncos -3 to -3.5 vs Raiders
Vikings-Panthers Under 47 to 46
Packers-Bears Under 46 to 45
Bucs-Eagles Under 52.5 to 51.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-15-2021, 09:08 PM

HITMAN | NFL Teaser - Thursday, Oct 14 2021 8:20PM
TB -0.5/KC-1

(-120)Bookmaker 109 TAM vs 110 PHI triple-dime bet

Analysis: 3* 6 PT TEASER: TB -0.5/KC -1 -120 (Consensus)

This will be the most public teaser of the week, but I still believe it's a good one.

The Eagles defense has been good against weaker competition (SF, ATL, CAR) but absolutely torched by the other top five offenses they have faced in Dallas (41 points allowed) and Kansas City (42 points allowed). The Eagles are still dealing with offensive line issues, troublesome against a ferocious Tampa front seven, and they also don't have the top end passing game weapons and quarterback that can fully take advantage of this Tampa secondary. We are getting a Tampa team who is 12-1 SU in their last 13 games in a pick em spot against a below average Eagles team.

The Chiefs, despite their 2-3 record, could easily be 4-1 against by far the leagues toughest schedule. The defense is huge issue, but so is the Redskins offensive injuries. RB Antonio Gibson isn't full healthy. Taylor Heinecke has begun to come back to earth, and they are also possibly without WR Dyami Brown, WR Curtis Samuel, TE Logan Thomas, and RG Brandon Scherff.

Washington's defense has allowed four touchdown passes in three consecutive games, and is now facing a Chiefs offense that has the best offense since 2009 in points per drive. This is still an elite Chiefs offense, in a close to must win spot against one of the bottom ten teams in the NFL. I expect this game to go a lot like the Chiefs/Eagles game from two weeks ago, which was controlled by KC.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-15-2021, 09:08 PM

HITMAN | NFL Sides - Sunday, Oct 17 2021 1:00PM
263 CIN -2.5 (-125)Bookmaker vs 264 DET double-dime bet

Analysis: FYI, as of right now Kambi is dealing -2.5 -122 as well. Pinnacle is dealing Bengals -3 -105. If you could buy off of 3 for twenty cents I wouldn't be against doing it, but if your shop charges anymore than that, I'd sit with -3 -105 or -3 -110.

Detroit has had a lot of fraudulent box scores recently. Facts are that this is a team that has been dominated in all of their games this season at one point during the game. They were dominated by Green Bay, dominated by San Fran (down 24 in the fourth), down 17 in the fourth to Chicago, and down 13 late against Minnesota. The only game that Detroit kept close for long stretches of the game was Baltimore, which was the infamous Hollywood Brown three dropped touchdown receptions game.

The injuries continue to pile up for Detroit. They have placed Jeff Okudah, Tyrell Williams, Kevin Strong, Ifeatu Melifonwu, Frank Ragnow, Romeo Okwara, and Quinten Cephus on seaosn ending IR during the regular season. The cluster injuries to a team that was already devoid of talent is beginning to get to an alarming level.

Joe Burrow and this Bengals passing offense has a clear edge against a pass rush and secondary low on talent. The Lions are the NFL's least explosive offense and require long drives to score. It's a role Cincinnati is not familiar with (road favorite), which was my only hesitation, but I make this game Bengals -4, giving us clear value.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-15-2021, 09:09 PM

HITMAN | NFL Sides - Sunday, Oct 17 2021 4:25PM
272 NEP +4.0 (-110)Southpoint vs 271 DAL double-dime bet

Analysis: This one is starting to get hit at some spots but about half the board still dealing 4. I make it 2.75

HITMAN | NFL Prop - Sunday, Oct 17 2021 1:00PM
Dillon O40.5

(-115)William Hill 255 GBP vs 256 CHI single-dime bet

Analysis: AJ Dillon (GB) O40.5 Total Yds -115 (DK/Caesars)

FYI, I also think Dillon is good on over 26.5 rush yards if you can't get total yards.

HITMAN | NFL Prop - Sunday, Oct 17 2021 1:00PM
Jones U15.5

(-130)William Hill 255 GBP vs 256 CHI single-dime bet

Analysis: Aaron Jones (GB) U15.5 carries -130 (DK/Caesars)

HITMAN | NFL Prop - Sunday, Oct 17 2021 8:20PM
Harris O70.5

(-115)William Hill 273 SEA vs 274 PIT single-dime bet

Analysis: Najee Harris (PIT) O70.5 Rush Yds -115 (DK/Caesars)

HITMAN | NFL Prop - Sunday, Oct 17 2021 8:20PM
Ben U255.5

(-115)William Hill 273 SEA vs 274 PIT single-dime bet

Analysis: Big Ben (PIT) U255.5 Pass Yds -115 (DK/Caesars)

Service Plays Sunday 10/17/21

Service Plays Sunday 10/17/21

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