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- The Runs Keep Coming
Game: (911) Houston Astros at (912) Boston Red Sox
Date/Time: Oct 19 2021 8:08 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3 units
Play: Total Over 10.0 (-115) Z Greinke (RHP), N Pivetta (RHP) Must Start
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Houston's offense: Since October 1, the Astros are averaging 6.7 runs per game. During the regular season, they led baseball in batting average (Boston was No. 3); on-base percentage; hits and runs scored. Nick Pivetta has pitched poorly at Fenway this season with a 5.40 ERA (compared to 3.75 on the road) and a 1.45 WHIP (compared to 1.18 on the road). He hasn't been great in the second half of the season. His ERA and WHIP have both increased after the All-Star break, while his strikeout rate decreased.
Boston's offense: Getting hot (red hot) at the right time. Boston is hitting .317 with a .374 on-base percentage and a .940 OPS so far in the postseason, and there's not much reason to think it won't continue. Houston had to use five pitchers on Monday, and now they are bringing in Zack Greinke who hasn't pitched in a month.
From MLB: "Astros' manager Dusty Baker said when this series began that Greinke was stretched out to roughly 40 pitches. Asked if that length was accurate, and how many innings he might be able to offer, Greinke said: 'We'll see. I haven't gone real deep recently, but we'll just see what happens and we'll be ready and we'll go from there'.” That certainly doesn't sound like a guy that's very confident in his ability tonight. Houston’s starters have accounted for just 5.1 of the 26 innings pitched in this series, and it sounds like Greinke is likely to only go two(?) innings tonight.
Take the over 10 runs in tonight's ALCS Game 4 between the Astros and Red Sox.
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