Service Plays Saturday 10/23/21

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Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
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NHL
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[Yellow]

Essler 3* TOY

Clemson Over 47.5

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Stephen Nover

3* Total Kent State over 66.5

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Greg Shaker

3* Game of the Month

LSU +11.5 good until down to +8

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Dave Cokin:

4% PAC 12 Best Bet Oregon State +3

Syracuse +3.5
Oregon State +3:
San Diego State +4
Toledo +2.5

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PAUL STONE

1* La Tech
1* Notre Dame Over
1* TCU Over
1* Penn State Under

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"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica cover the college football season as only they can, offering their top picks, betting nuggets and totals worth wagering on.
Records:
The Bear (Last week: 0-3. Season: 13-19)
Stanford Steve (Last week: 2-3. Season: 19-17)
Note: All lines are from Caesars Sportsbook.
The Plays


USC Trojans at No. 13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-7, 57.5)
Stanford Steve: I'm expecting a little chill in the air Saturday night in South Bend, Indiana. Notre Dame gets its all-everything tight end Michael Mayer back, which should provide a huge lift to an offense that has lacked consistency. I like the improving defense of the Irish and their secondary, which includes All-American candidate Kyle Hamilton and CB Cam Hart. They match up well with the Air Raid of the Trojans, who feature star wide receiver Drake London (64 catches in 6 games). I expect the Irish to come out with more of a sense of urgency, too, knowing they can still manage a successful season.
Pick: Notre Dame -7 (Notre Dame 34, USC 19)
Fallica: The Trojans have a zig-zag pattern this season, which makes perfect sense. After laying an egg at home vs. Utah, it's a perfect spot for a good performance as a road dog vs. a rival. I don't know if Notre Dame has an answer defensively for London, and all Notre Dame has done all year is play close games behind mediocre offensive line and QB play.
Pick: USC +7


No. 10 Oregon Ducks at UCLA Bruins (-2, 60.5)


Stanford Steve: Another one of these matchups this week that features an unranked home team favored over the ranked road team. UCLA went to Eugene, Oregon, last year and battled without its four-year starting QB, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and lost 38-35 to the Ducks in a great game. This year, I believe UCLA has improved in every facet, especially its run defense that still allows only 91 yards rushing per game. We'll take the home team and give the points.
Pick: UCLA -2 (UCLA 31, Oregon 27)

LSU Tigers at No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels (-9, 76)
Stanford Steve: Last year, Matt Corral played his worst game of the year and threw five INTs in a 53-48 loss. This year, he comes in as the Heisman Trophy front-runner and has thrown one INT in six games. Last week, LSU pulled off the upset by forcing the Florida Gators into four turnovers ... and it needed every one of them. I expect offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby's offense to have plenty of success for 60 minutes. We'll give the points with the home team.
Pick: Ole Miss -9 (Ole Miss 48, LSU 32)

No. 8 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones (-7, 47)
Fallica: Oklahoma State has been a thorn in the Cyclones' side the past two years, and a bit of payback might be in store here. Both teams still have very real Big 12 title hopes, despite Iowa State being forgotten about just a little bit since its slow start. Against Kansas and Kansas State the past two weeks, the Iowa State offense has played its best ball of the year, and if it's up to the task Saturday, the Cyclones should win by more than a TD. I don't see Oklahoma State doing a whole lot offensively.
Pick: Iowa State -7

No. 18 NC State Wolfpack (-3, 53) at Miami Hurricanes
Fallica: NC State got the impressive win at Boston College last week and sent me home a loser. I'm on the other side of the Wolfpack this week, but it's not an anti-NC State play, it's a pro-Miami lean. Miami's defense has been a mess, but its young offense has put points on the board. And even more notable to me is that despite falling behind big to Virginia and UNC, the Canes haven't quit. In fact, they made big comebacks and easily could have found themselves in OT or as outright winners in both instances. They are still playing hard for themselves and their coach, and I like that.
Pick: Miami +3

No. 16 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-3, 52.5) at Army Black Knights

Stanford Steve: We know what Army will bring to the table, and all the pressure is on the undefeated Demon Deacons. Wake has not been good in this scenario, as it is 1-5 in its past six games as a road favorite. Plus, it seems Army always gives these offensive-minded teams fits for a full 60 minutes. We'll take the home team and the points.
Pick: Army +3 (Wake Forest 23, Army 21)
Fallica: Wake has given up a ton of rush yards in its past two games vs. Louisville and Syracuse, which concerns me here. Sure the Deacs know there isn't much of a passing threat, but there wasn't much of a pass threat vs. the Orange either. Coming home after another close loss vs. a Power 5 team, I think Army has the goods to hang the first loss of the year on the Deacs.
Pick: Army +3

No. 22 San Diego State Aztecs at Air Force Falcons (-3.5, 39)
Fallica: Air Force is a deserving favorite, as I'm not sure how much offense the Aztecs will be able to muster up away from home after the QB switch and against a team that has allowed more than 17 points just once. The Falcons are a quiet 6-1 after their win at Boise State, but we've noticed.
Pick: Air Force -3.5
Stanford Steve: The Falcons come in covering five of their past six games, including last week in a win at Boise State where their defense gave up only 337 total yards to the Broncos in the upset win. SDSU will make a QB change, even though it is undefeated, and go with Georgia Tech transfer Lucas Johnson, who threw the winning TD last week at San Jose State. I'll take the home team and give the points.
Pick: Air Force -3.5 (Air Force 24, San Diego State 17)

South Carolina Gamecocks at No. 17 Texas A&M Aggies (-19.5, 45)
Stanford Steve: We've been searching to the blowout for some weeks. We'll say the Aggies dominate the short-handed Gamecocks offense at home at night.
Pick: Texas A&M -19.5 (Texas A&M 38, South Carolina 10)

West Virginia Mountaineers at TCU Horned Frogs (-4.5, 56.5)
Stanford Steve: The Horned Frogs' defense got ambushed in Norman by the Sooners last week, but the Mountaineers don't bring to the table what Oklahoma does. Mountaineers star running back Leddie Brown has rushed for over 100 yards only once this year, and their offensive line has struggled to protect the quarterback, too. The feeling here is the Horned Frogs have enough defense to frustrate West Virginia, and the offense should get a boost from the return of running back Zach Evans, who has averaged 140 yards in the past four games he has played. Lay the points with the home team.
Pick: TCU -4.5 (TCU 34, West Virginia 21)

Utah Utes (-3, 56.5) at Oregon State Beavers
Fallica: An Oregon State win two weeks ago at Washington State might have put College GameDay in Corvallis, but the Beavers couldn't get the job done. They've had a week off since the loss, and Utah has had a difficult few weeks off the field and just had two emotional wins over USC and Arizona State. Can the Utes bounce back again with another "A" performance? They'll need to in order to walk out of Corvallis with a win.
Pick: Oregon State +3
The Bear's money-line parlay

Last Week: -100
Season: -509
$100 wins $78
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns -900
Ohio State Buckeyes -1300
Penn State Nittany Lions -2400
Michigan Wolverines -2000
Cincinnati Bearcats -4500
Alabama Crimson Tide -4000
Texas A&M Aggies -1600
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -800
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors -1100
The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line

Last Week: 2-4, -0.65 units
Season: 19-25, +12.45 units
Charlotte 49ers +230
Miami Hurricanes +135
Army Black Knights +145
East Carolina Pirates +400
Oregon State Beavers +135
Purdue Boilermakers +135
USC Trojans +225
Bear bytes

NFL & CFB Best Bets

CFB: Best bets for this weekend's games
CFB: Stanford Steve & The Bear's picks
CFB: Overachievers and underachievers

Unranked, underdogs and undefeated
Two undefeated teams are road underdogs this week -- No. 8 Oklahoma State (+7) at Iowa State and San Diego State (+3.5) at Air Force. No. 10 Oregon is a road underdog at 5-2 UCLA. Also No. 25 Purdue is a home underdog to Wisconsin.
Last year in the regular season, there were just nine instances in which a ranked team was an underdog vs. an unranked team. Including the four this week, it will bring the 2021 total to 11 times when an unranked team was favored over a ranked team. The last time there was a week when at least four ranked teams were underdogs to unranked teams was November 17, 2012. Three of the five ranked teams that week won outright.
Each of the three military academies hosts a 6-0 team this weekend. One has to go back to Air Force vs. Utah on October 30, 2010, to find the last time an academy hosted a 6-0 team. In fact, going back in the previous 40 years, there have been just eight times an academy hosted a 6-0 team.
No. 8 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones
Since 2009, there have been eight games in which a top-10 team was an underdog vs. an unranked team. Ranked teams are 7-1 ATS in this spot.
The last time a top-10 team was at least a seven-point dog vs. an unranked team came in 1998, when Notre Dame was an 8.5-point dog at USC and lost 10-0.
Since 2016, Oklahoma State is 13-3 ATS with 10 outright wins as an underdog. The Cowboys have won both of their games as an underdog this year (by 1 at Boise State and by 8 at Texas).
No. 16 Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Army Black Knights
Since 2016, Army has been an underdog vs. a Power 5 team nine times. The Black Knights are 7-2 ATS in those games with two outright wins. The past four games have been decided by 3, 3, 7 and 6 points vs. West Virginia, Michigan, Oklahoma and Wisconsin, respectively.
Washington Huskies at Arizona Wildcats
Arizona has lost 18 straight games and is 4-13-1 ATS in that stretch. The Cats' last win came October 5, 2019, over the Mel Tucker-led Colorado Buffaloes.
No. 18 NC State Wolfpack at Miami Hurricanes
Miami is 0-6 in its past six games vs. Power 5 competition, and has covered just one of the six games.

USC Trojans at No. 13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
This is the third straight year an unranked USC team will take on a top-15 Notre Dame team. USC covered each of the past two, losing by three and seven points.
Syracuse Orange at Virginia Tech Hokies
This is the 21st straight game vs. FBS opposition in which the Orange are an underdog. The Orange have covered four straight and seven of eight.
Wisconsin Badgers at No. 25 Purdue Boilermakers
This is the 15th straight game in which Wisconsin is favored. The Badgers are just 5-9 ATS in the first 14 with seven outright losses. Wisconsin is 2-5 in its past seven Big Ten games (1-6 ATS).
LSU Tigers at No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels
LSU has averaged 46.8 PPG in its five-game win streak over Ole Miss. The past two years have produced 101 and 95 combined points in the game.
No. 3 Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas has been on average a 22.6-point underdog this year vs. FBS teams. The Jayhawks haven't covered any of them and have lost the five games by an average of 32.6 PPG.
No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes at Indiana Hoosiers
Ohio State is 2-8 in its past 10 games vs. Indiana. The Buckeyes have been a favorite of 25.2 PPG in those 10 games and won by an average of 18.7 PPG.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Adam Trigger

USC +7

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Marc Lawrence Preferred Picks: College Football Crush Play......Army

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MARCO D'ANGELO

5% CFB MAJOR WAGER 9-2 in 2021
Game: (383) Oklahoma State at (384) Iowa State
Date/Time: Oct 23 2021 3:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Iowa State -7.0 (-110)

5% IOWA ST -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R & R TOTAL

Game: (393) Wisconsin at (394) Purdue
Date/Time: Oct 23 2021 3:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5 units
Play: Total Under 40.0 (-110)

TOP CFB Over-Under

NOTE: Play at 39 or better




Game: (665) B.C. Lions at (666) Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Date/Time: Oct 23 2021 7:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Total Under 42.5 (-110)

TOP CFL Over-Under

NOTE: Play good to 41

[GetTheseDimes]

** Keep in mind the early start time for this UFC event 1ET/10 Pacific
Kyle Anthony (WagerTalk)

• Game: (24201) Paulo Costa at (24202) Marvin Vettori
  Date/Time: Oct 23 2021 8:00 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: Marvin Vettori -150
  
  In the main event of UFC Fight Night, Marvin Vettori faces Paulo Costa…
  Breakdown of this fight will be discussed on Prediction Show posted on below platforms.
  YouTube: Kyle Anthony's UFC Betting Show
  Twitter: @KyleAnthonyUFC
  
  Play: Marvin Vettori (-150)
  
• Game: (24217) Joselyne Edwards at (24218) Jessica-Rose Clark
  Date/Time: Oct 23 2021 8:00 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: Jessica-Rose Clark -140
  
  In a main card bout Jessica-Rose Clark faces Joselyne Edwards…
  I'm getting right to the point on this one.
  It's a spot I believe Clark should be a much bigger favorite which provides plenty of value wagering. Over the last few years JRC has faced tougher opponents and appears to elevate each fight, which was on display in her most recent TKO win over Sarah Alpar. Edwards will have the reach advantage and can be highly active on the feet, but I believe Clark has the crisper striking and the over aggressive striking will provide openings for Clark to level change. A big vulnerability for Edwards has been her inability defending takedowns. Currently she's got a 37% takedown defend rate which Clark can expose. Not only that but JRC has been training with Daniel Cormier which is a massive telling sign she's going to push grappling. The smaller Apex cage should assist in closing the distance cutting angles to level change. No doubt she's going to utilize what DC's taught her and push the pace. Add in the fact that not only is Edwards vulnerable to takedowns, but once she's down been easy keeping her there.
  At only -140, I like this price on JRC getting the job done Saturday night!
  
  Play: Jessica-Rose Clark (-140)
  
• Game: (24209) Randa Markos at (24210) Livinha Souza
  Date/Time: Oct 23 2021 8:00 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: Livinha Souza -120
  
  In a preliminary bout, Livinha Souza faces Randa Markos…
  Right away this fight stood out to me. Anytime you're getting even odds against Randa Markos and her overall shitty MMA career… it's always worth deeper research.
  To start, Randa has a limited skill set all around. Hard to actually say this and surprised I am… but Souza is better everywhere. She's no world beater, but she's got Markos covered in all areas. The slow plotting movement of Randa will allow Livinha to dictate the pace of the fight. Although in spots she's looked flat offensively Markos doesn't have the tools to counter attack. On the ground Souza is a legit black belt with solid grappling and ability to pressure forward with up against the fence clinching. We've seen time and time again not only does Randa look lost when grappling but she makes horrendously bad mistakes in those situations. Add in the fact she's 36 years old and displays a lack in fight IQ as well as motivation …I don't understand how these odds are at pick'em. Currently she's 0-4 in last 4 UFC appearances and 2-7 in last 9 fights. Of course record isn't a full on indication of where to place my money but in her last 6 bouts she's only won TWO ROUNDS over that span. She's not just losing, she's getting dominated. That's overly bad for a fighter heading towards retirement and could be there for a paycheck.
  
  Play: Livinha Souza (-120)
  
• Game: (24241) Francisco Trinaldo at (24242) Dwight Grant
  Date/Time: Oct 23 2021 8:00 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Francisco Trinaldo -115
  
  In a main card bout Francisco Trinaldo faces Dwight Grant…
  Normally I'm not one running to the window betting 40 year olds…. well, maybe I am as last weekends Best Bet was Andrei Arlovski (-115) winner. But anyways, we're back at it again wagering a 40 plus fighter. This Saturday night the old man gets the job done again.
  First red flag for Dwight Grant was his most recent win against Stefan Sekulic. Grant was coming off a knocked out round one loss one fight prior to Daniel Rodriguez, so it was a solid bounce back spot for him. Sekulic hadn't fought since 2018, with three years out of the cage Grant ended up defeating Sekulic's return bout. My issue on his win..?? He didn't come close to deserving it. No way. MMA judging is well… MMA judging and somehow Grant got the decision win. Grant was losing the standing exchanges, up against the fence positioning and allow Stefan to take him down multiple times. It appeared an easy 2-1 or even 3-0 rounds for Sekulic whom even dropped and almost submitted Grant end of round 3. It goes as a decision win, but overall the performance wasn't impressive.
  His wild combinations should allow Francisco Trinaldo openings to land and technically speaking throws crisper strikes then Dwight as well. The cardio backed by Trinaldo's ability taking the fight to the mat should provide opportunities to counter and push the pace. Dwight off his back is iffy at best and Trinaldo's top control and grappling should help win rounds. Dwight has show power, but over Francisco's long MMA career he's never been knocked out. With basically a KO Grant's only path to victory it limits any betting value on him. The wild striking also should present those windows to level change or smother Grant up against the fence. At a pick'em price tag, I'm loving this spot and provides enough value for a 4% wager.
  
  4% Play: Francisco Trinaldo (-115
  

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Intro by Doug Kezirian
The college football slate lacks a marquee ranked matchup, but it does feature four games with an unranked team favored over a ranked school. The most notable is Chip Kelly's UCLA Bruins as 2-point home favorites over No. 10 Oregon, where Kelly spent nearly a decade and flirted with national championships.
"Rankings mean nothing to me and to anyone who follows the sport and takes it seriously, but they do mean a lot to fans and players," professional bettor Ron Boyles told ESPN, sharing that he usually singles out these situations in college basketball but does like the college football angle too, if other variables line up. "When you come into someone's building with that number next to your name, believe me, it gets the attention of the home crowd and home players. You're getting a team that's going to be more energized and ready to go."
While the Ducks are 5-1, they have only covered one game. That lone cover was actually their most impressive performance, winning outright as 15-point underdogs at No. 5 Ohio State. That victory, one loss and a Pac-12 title will get Oregon into the College Football Playoff. However, another regular season loss could cost the Ducks that berth.

Every Wednesday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (19-18 overall, 3-2 last week), Bill Connelly (18-17, 1-4), Tyler Fulghum (8-5, 3-0), Joe Fortenbaugh (15-13, 4-0) and David M. Hale (9-9, 0-2) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 8 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).
Thursday's best bet


Tulane Green Wave at No. 21 SMU Mustangs (-13.5, 70.5), 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN

Fortenbaugh: Talk about two teams headed in opposite directions. Undefeated SMU has been a freight train this season, covering the number in four of six contests while outscoring the opposition by an average of 18.5 points per game. On the other sideline stands a Tulane squad that has dropped four straight by an average of 22 points per game. Styles make fights, and in this fight Thursday night, the Mustangs boast the country's 11th-ranked scoring offense and 14th-ranked passing attack while the Green Wave rank 128th in scoring defense and 119th in pass defense.
Pick: SMU -13.5

Friday's best bets

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (-15.5, 56) at UConn Huskies, 6 p.m. ET

Connelly: Let's put it this way ... SP+ really doesn't like UConn. It projected the Huskies to lose to Yale by nine points last week, after all. So when it projects them to merely lose to MTSU by 9.1 on average, as it has this week, I listen. From a statistical standpoint, MTSU has been pretty fortunate in its last two games -- the Blue Raiders probably should have lost to Marshall and should have lost by well more than 28 to Liberty -- and we have to grant that, as low as this bar is, UConn has improved over the last month. Let's see if the Huskies can keep that going.
Pick: UConn +15.5

Colorado State Rams (-3.5, 58.5) at Utah State Aggies, 9:30 p.m. ET

Connelly: Trends are often difficult to reliably spot in this small-sample sport, but it feels safe to say these teams are quickly trending in different directions. Since a miserable 0-2 start with losses to South Dakota State and Vanderbilt, CSU has won three of four, pummeling three Group of Five opponents by an average score of 30-9 and giving Iowa fits for most of 60 minutes in Iowa City. Meanwhile, since starting 3-0 with upset wins at Washington State and Air Force, Utah State has lost to Boise State and BYU by a combined 61-23 (stats suggested each game could have been even more lopsided) and needed a late comeback to beat winless UNLV. SP+ is designed to react slowly to trends but still has the Rams favored by a more comfortable 6.6 points in this one.
Pick: CSU -3.5

Saturday's best bets


No. 3 Oklahoma Sooners (-38.5, 67.5) at Kansas Jayhawks, Noon ET on ESPN

Fulghum: Anyone who reads this column knows that directly fading Kansas football has been about as rock solid as it gets. The Jayhawks are 0-6 ATS and I will continue to fade them all season long, regardless of opponent and spread. It just so happens this week they play a rejuvenated Oklahoma team that is vying for a spot in the College Football Playoff behind QB Caleb Williams. Boomer Sooner.
Pick: Oklahoma -38.5

Kent State Golden Flashes (-5.5, 66.5) at Ohio Bobcats, 1 p.m. ET on ESPN+


Fortenbaugh: This is a significant amount of points to lay on the road for a Golden Flashes program that is 0-4 away from home this season, not to mention the fact that Kent State's three wins on the year have come against FCS Virginia Military Institute as well as Buffalo and Bowling Green, who are a combined 5-9 on the season. Ohio's ability to run the ball will be the difference in this one, as the Bobcats rank 20th in the country in rushing and eighth in yards per rushing attempt, while Kent State ranks 116th in run defense. Take note that Ohio is 15-5 against the spread in its last 20 games as an underdog.
Pick: Ohio +5.5

No. 8 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones (-7, 47), 3:30 p.m. ET

Hale: This is strictly a belief that the underlying metrics tell us more than the win-loss record does. Oklahoma State is undefeated, but its average scoring differential is the third-lowest by a 6-0 team in the AP poll era. Iowa State has two losses but ranks ninth in FPI, is in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and is 12th in SP+. The Cowboys, by comparison, are 28th in FPI, 66th in offensive efficiency and 32nd in SP+. FPI has the Cyclones by 11. Oklahoma State has found a knack for keeping things closer than expected, but I'm still happy to lay the points here and bet the ranks of the undefeated get slimmed a bit more in Week 8.
Pick: Iowa State -7

No. 10 Oregon Ducks at UCLA Bruins (-2, 60), 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC

Fortenbaugh: Two elite rushing attacks, two comparable defenses. The difference in this one will be the play at quarterback, which means my money is on UCLA. Dorian Thompson-Robinson continues to show growth while protecting the football and making good decisions down the field. Oregon's Anthony Brown, who has been more than serviceable this season, is completing just 59% of his passes on the year, which leaves a lot to be desired. With two evenly matched teams that boast similar styles of play, UCLA's edge at quarterback is enough for me to lay the two points.
Pick: UCLA -2


Hale: Oregon has lost much of its luster since upending Ohio State in Columbus without Kayvon Thibodeaux. The Ducks blew a late lead and lost to Stanford, then looked utterly listless last week in a 24-17 win over Cal. Brown has been mediocre, C.J. Verdel is out for the season, and it's just tough to get too excited about a Ducks team that looked poised for a playoff run a month ago. UCLA isn't much better. Remember when the Bruins knocked off LSU and we assumed the Pac-12 had two real contenders this season? Losses to Fresno State and Arizona State let the air out of that balloon. So, the Pac-12 is what it always is -- a collection of solid but unspectacular teams ready to disappoint at a moment's notice. Right?
The answer is ... maybe. We're not ready to sell our Oregon stock just yet. The Stanford game feels like a fluke in the way a strange series of events upended the Ducks late, and while the offense isn't likely as explosive as it looked against Ohio State in September, the defense is probably better than it has played at any point so far this year. The battle here between Oregon's defensive front and a UCLA team allowing pressure just 18.5% of the time (fifth-best nationally) is the focal point, and we're betting the Ducks' D finds a way to rattle Thompson-Robinson enough to give their offense a shot. FPI has the Ducks as a small favorite in this one, and that's a perception we share. We're happy to take the points and back Oregon's resurgence into the playoff discussion.
Pick: Oregon +2

LSU Tigers at No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels (-9, 76), 3:30 p.m. ET

Connelly: I love a good 76-point game as much as the next person, but this one feels a little bit aggressive. Only two of six Ole Miss games and one of seven LSU games have topped 76 points, and SP+ projects something closer to 66. Throw in any sort of adjustment for the fact that, per Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral might be either out or limited and that can only lower that total by a bit.
Pick: Under 76

Clemson Tigers at No. 23 Pittsburgh Panthers (-3, 48), 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN

Fulghum: It is not shocking at all to see that the Kansas Jayhawks are a winless ATS program. That's to be expected. What is thoroughly shocking, however, is to see the fall from grace for Dabo Swinney and the Clemson Tigers. Clemson is also winless ATS this season at 0-6. Pitt, on the other hand, is a sterling 5-1 ATS this season thanks to a passing attack triggered by QB Kenny Pickett.
Pick: Pitt -3

Fortenbaugh: This Saturday will mark the first time since the 2020 National Championship game against LSU that Clemson will find itself in the underdog role. For those scoring at home, that was 19 games ago for the Tigers. To borrow a phrase from Wall Street, this is where we "buy the dip." Clemson is 0-6 ATS this season and can't move the ball with any type of consistency, which is why the betting public has jumped ship. But keep in mind the following: covering as a favorite with an anemic offense is a hell of a lot more challenging than covering as an underdog. And this underdog just so happens to rank fourth in the country in scoring defense.
Pick: Clemson +3.5 or better

Colorado Buffaloes at California Golden Bears (-9, 43), 3:30 p.m. ET

Kezirian: Colorado looked solid last week, smacking Arizona 34-0 and earning its first win over an FBS school. Everything was working in CU's favor. The Buffs were coming off a bye, playing at home in the altitude and facing a winless Arizona team. This is a much different situation. Although the Bears are winless against FBS schools, they are rightfully favored by two scores for a reason. They have a respectable defense, and the offense has its moments. Colorado is pretty weak, and I expect Cal to be ready to rock and get that first win in convincing fashion. This is by far the worst FBS opponent Cal has faced all season.
Pick: Cal -9

Buffalo Bulls (-11, 57) at Akron Zips, 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+

Hale: My favorite bets often involve two bad teams in which one of those bad teams is much, much worse than the other. The lines tend to reflect a public perception that both teams stink, but when it comes to distinguishing degrees of ineptitude, the public does a pretty bad job of it.
Indeed, with this game, FPI projects Buffalo by close to 17 points, but the line here is just 11. There's perhaps some lingering wariness of fading Akron after the Zips surprised bad-game bettors by throttling Bowling Green, or perhaps some worries because Buffalo seems to only play close games. We're not concerned with either of those details. Akron is still the team that was blown out by Temple, Ohio and Miami (Ohio). Buffalo is still the team that came close to knocking off Coastal Carolina and Western Michigan. Buffalo is 12-5 against the spread in its last 17 as the favorite. Aron is 4-18 as an underdog the past three seasons.
Don't overthink this one. There's bad (Buffalo), and there's downright terrible (Akron).
Pick: Buffalo -11

Tennessee Volunteers at No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide, 7 p.m. ET on ESPN

Fulghum: After the disappointing loss to Texas A&M, Alabama bounced back last week to embarrass Mississippi State 49-9. Bama is vastly superior to Tennessee and is now incentivized to embarrass SEC competition a little more due to the one loss on the docket. So far this season the Crimson Tide have outscored their opponents in the first half by a cumulative score of 180-49; that's an average first half margin of +18.7 points.
Pick: Alabama first half -14

Nevada Wolf Pack at Fresno State Bulldogs (-3, 65), 7 p.m. ET

Connelly: I really like Fresno State. The Bulldogs fought both Oregon (narrow loss) and UCLA (narrow win) to toss-up games in September, and while there might be reason to worry about their offense at the moment -- since scoring 40 on UCLA, they've averaged just 26 points per game against UNLV, Hawaii and Wyoming -- the Bulldogs' defense is the strongest unit in this game. They're allowing just 23 yards per drive (10th in FBS) and 1.4 points per drive (15th), and they're pretty well suited to do damage against a pretty all-or-nothing Nevada offense. Throw in the fact that Nevada's super shaky run defense might not be able to take full advantage of Fresno's offensive regression and you've got a recipe for a Bulldogs win. SP+ projects a 9.4-point advantage for Fresno, and that sounds good to me.
Pick: Fresno State -3

No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes (-20, 60) at Indiana Hoosiers, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC

Kezirian: The Buckeyes are starting to hit their stride, winning their last three games by a combined 140 points. While Indiana should be a bit tougher of an opponent than Rutgers or Maryland, I am not convinced they are by much. The Hoosiers have already replaced their QB, and this is a giant talent mismatch. Buckeyes QB C.J. Stroud has thrown five TDs in each of his past two games, and the freshman seems to have found a rhythm. Ohio State is off a bye, but I expect the Buckeyes to keep it rolling.
Pick: Ohio State -20

USC Trojans at No. 13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-7, 57.5), 7:30 p.m. ET



Connelly: It's getting harder and harder to find disagreement between the lines and SP+ projections, but there's a decent amount of cushion here. SP+ projects the Irish to have something closer to a 10.6-point advantage, and while the Notre Dame offense remains pretty banged up in the trenches, USC really hasn't given any sign that it's capable of taking advantage of that. The Trojans have fallen from 17th to 42nd in SP+ over their last three games, and while a big rivalry game might wake them up a bit, Notre Dame probably has enough to win this one by more than a touchdown.
Pick: Notre Dame -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WUnderdog
CFB

Syracuse Orange +3.5 @virgina tech hokies

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Spreitzer

7* San Diego St +3
3* Alabama -14.5 First Half
3* Boston College +6
3* Fresno St -3