Service Plays Saturday 10/30/21

**Yellow** · 10-27-2021, 03:21 PM

Essler 3* GOY

Auburn -2.5

**GetTheseDimes** · 10-28-2021, 11:17 AM

Adam Trigger (WagerTalk): 5% top play UNC +3.5

**don** · 10-28-2021, 06:20 PM

NICK BORRMAN
5% Mammoth Sat Soccer Blowout
Bayer Munich -1.5 -1.10

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-28-2021, 09:06 PM

Greg Shaker

3* SMU +1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-28-2021, 09:06 PM

Early CFB Week 9 Sharp Action

12 p.m. ET: Iowa at Wisconsin

This Big Ten showdown is the most heavily bet early game on the board. Iowa (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) is ranked 9th in the country and is coming off a bye. The Hawkeyes just suffered their first loss of the season, falling to Purdue 24-7 as 11.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Wisconsin (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) was left for dead after starting the season 1-3. But now the Badgers have won three straight, including a 30-13 win over Purdue last week, covering as 3.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Wisconsin listed as a 3-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this line speaks volumes. If Iowa is the better team and ranked, then why are they getting points? The public is rushing to the window to grab Iowa, yet we've seen the line stay at Wisconsin -3 or even -3.5 at some shops. This signals sharp "fade the trendy dog" liability on contrarian favorite Wisconsin. We could also be looking at a low scoring game. The total has fallen from 37 to 36.5. Iowa is 5-2 to the under. Wisconsin is 4-3 to the under.

7 p.m. ET: Mississippi at Auburn

This primetime matchup features a pair of ranked SEC rivals battling for conference supremacy. Ole Miss (6-1 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) is ranked 10th in the country and has won three straight games, most recently beating LSU 31-17, covering as 9-point home favorites. On the flip side, Auburn (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) is ranked 18th and just crushed Arkansas 38-23, winning outright as 4.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Auburn listed as a 1-point home favorite. The public is jumping all over Ole Miss as a dog due to their higher ranking and better record. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen Auburn move from -1 to -3. This indicates respected money laying the points with Auburn. Auburn is also coming off a bye. Ranked home favorites off a bye are roughly 59% ATS the past decade. Both teams can put up points (Ole Miss 41.9 PPG and Auburn 35.4 PPG). The difference comes on defense, where Ole Miss is allowing 28.3 PPG and Auburn just 19.7 PPG.

7:30 p.m. ET: Penn State at Ohio State

This Big Ten primetime clash features two rivals trending in opposite directions. Penn State (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) is ranked 20th in the country and has lost two straight, most recently falling to unranked Illinois 20-18 in a 9 OT thriller, losing outright as 24.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Ohio State (6-1 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) has won five straight and is ranked 5th. The Buckeyes just crushed Indiana 54-7, easily covering as 21-point home favorites. This line opened with Ohio State listed as a 17-point home favorite. Pros and Joes aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're both laying the points with red-hot Ohio State, steaming the Buckeyes up from -17 to -18.5. When two ranked teams face off, the favorite is roughly 56% ATS over the past decade. Both teams have stellar defenses (PSU allows 14.71 PPG and OSU 18.57 PPG). The big difference comes on offense, where Ohio State is averaging 49.29 PPG and Penn State just 26.86.

More Week 9 Moves

Michigan -3.5 to -4.5 at Michigan State

Colorado 26.5 to 24 at Oregon

Miami 11.5 to 9 at Pittsburgh

Buffalo -12.5 to -13.5 vs Bowling Green

Oklahoma -19 to -20 vs Texas Tech

Baylor -2 to -3 vs Texas

Maryland -3 to -5.5 vs Indiana

Utah -4.5 to -6.5 vs UCLA

Georgia Tech -3 to -4 vs Virginia Tech

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-28-2021, 09:06 PM

Stanford Steve (Last week: 3-4. Season: 22-21)
Notre Dame -3
Penn St +18.5
Kansas +30.5
Fresno St +1
Clemson -9.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-28-2021, 09:06 PM

Chris Fallica (The Bear) (Saturday CFB)

The Bear (Last week: 2-4. Season: 15-23)

North Carola +3.5
Georgia at Florida: Over 51
Miss St +1.5
Iowa -7
Colorado St +2.5
Nebraska -7.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-28-2021, 11:42 PM

Doc Sports

4 Unit Play. Take #117 Iowa Hawkeyes +3.5 over Wisconsin Badgers (12 p.m., Saturday, October 30 ESPN) You have an unranked team that is favored over a ranked team, but I do not buy the metrics on Wisconsin. The Badgers have a terrible quarterback. And if the Hawkeyes can stop the run, Wisconsin will have trouble moving the football. Iowa is solid on defense as well. And if they can take care of the football, they should win this game straight-up. Wisconsin got 5 turnovers last week against Purdue and only had to throw 8 passes. Iowa turned it over 4 times two weeks ago against Purdue and lost to them. Do you see a trend about what Iowa needs to do to win this game? The road team is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings between Iowa and Wisconsin.

4 Unit Play. Take #124 Michigan State Spartans +4 over Michigan Wolverines (12 p.m., Saturday, October 30 FOX) This is just too many points for a true road game against a team Michigan has not done well against in the past. Michigan State is 9-4 straight-up and 11-2 ATS against Michigan since 2008. Both defenses are tough against the run, and whomever can make plays in the passing game will likely win this game. I feel Michigan State has the best player on the field in Heisman candidate Kenneth Walker III, and a strong showing in this game will vault him up the odds board. Michigan State is coming off a bye week to get healthy, and I just do not see them getting run off the field against Michigan. Coach Harbaugh still has a terrible record against ranked teams. And if this game is close in the fourth quarter, I expect Michigan State to win it straight-up. Michigan is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Michigan State is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played during the month of October. Take the points in this game, as I believe the wrong team is favored.

4 Unit Play. Take #139 Rutgers Scarlet Knights -1.5 over Illinois Fighting Illini (12 p.m., Saturday, October 30 BTN) Just do not know how Illinois will bounce back after a 9 overtime win last time out against Penn State. Rutgers is coming off a bye last week, and Illinois still has major issues at quarterback. Illinois has proven they can lose to anyone, and I just feel Rutgers is further along in year two with Greg Schiano compared to year 1 of Bret Bielema. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between Rutgers and Illinois.

4 Unit Play. Take #142 Northwestern Wildcats +7.5 over Minnesota Golden Gophers (3:30 p.m., Saturday, October 23 BTN) Northwestern is having a down year, but they are well coached and will play hard each and every week. The underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 games Minnesota has played. Northwestern will have to stop the run to be competitive in this game. Minnesota is not a strong team as a favorite, and they do not light up the scoreboard with their offense. Northwestern has bounced back this season after losses, and today at home should be no different. Northwestern is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games. Expect this game to go down to the wire, and it will be decided by just a field goal.

6 Unit Play. Take #190 Ohio State Buckeyes -18.5 over Penn State Nittany Lions (7:30 p.m., Saturday, October 30 ABC) TOP NCAA GAME OF THE WEEK Ohio State has been rolling of late, winning 5 straight games, and all of them have come by more points than tonight's posted number. Penn State could not run the football against Illinois, and they are gassed after losing to the Illini in 9 overtimes. QB Clifford did return from an injury against Iowa but did not look good, throwing for just 165 yards on 56% completions. Penn State is going to have to score points to stay in this game, and I just do not believe that is something they can do at this stage of the season. Ohio State still has a great chance to make the college football playoff if they win out and win convincingly. They have scored at least 52 points in their last four games. And if they hit that number on Saturday, they will win this game with ease. Penn State is 4-20 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 26 games following a loss in their previous game. Ohio State is 13-5 ATS in tier last 18 games following an ATS win in their previous game. The James Franklin to USC rumors heat up and Penn State continues to lose games, this one coming by 20+ points.

4 Unit Play. Take #196 Take Auburn Tigers -2.5 over Ole Miss Rebels (7p.m., Saturday, October 30 ESPN)

4 Unit Play. Take #210 Notre Dame Fighting Irish -3.5 over North Carolina Tar Heels (7:30p.m., Saturday, October 30 NBC)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-29-2021, 09:22 PM

NICK BORRMAN ALL SOCCER PLAYS

Game: 3-Leg England Premier League Parlay
Date/Time: Oct 30 2021 10:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: PARLAY Liverpool ML & Manchester City ML & Chelsea ML (-105)

England Premier League
Last weekend I gave out a similar Bundesliga 3-Leg parlay with some big favorites which came through rather easily and I see no reason this one won't hit on Saturday. All three teams have upcoming Champions League games this week so I don't fully trust laying the big goal spread of -1.5 to -2.25 goals on these teams but all should still be able to win their games.
Liverpool looks like the team that won the EPL two seasons ago and have a +1.68 xG differential on the season. Brighton have been solid but showed they don't have the firepower to compete with the elite teams in a 4-1 loss to Man City last weekend.
Manchester City were knocked out of the EFL Cup this week with a loss to West Ham on penalty kicks, but they do not lose back to back games very often. They had scored four and five goals in their two previous games and last season they beat Palace in both games by a combined 6-0 scoreline. They should bounce back here.
Chelsea arguably have the toughest task just for the fact that they are on the road, but Newcastle's defense is terrible as they allow the most xGA in the league at 1.97 and have the 2nd worst xG differential at -0.85 per game while Chelsea generate the 3rd most xG per game at 1.84 and have the 3rd best xG differential at +0.73.
PARLAY odds = -105
LIVERPOOL ML (-425) over Brighton
MANCHESTER CITY (-650) over Crystal Palace
CHELSEA (-265) over Newcastle
Line Parameter: 3% to -120
Game: Brentford at Burnley
Date/Time: Oct 30 2021 10:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Brentford +0.0 (-110)

England Premier League
Burnley has yet to win a game this season with an 0-4-5 record and a -8 goal differential. They have the 4th worst xG differential in the league at -0.62 thanks to a defense allowing both the 4th most shots per game (16.0) as well as shots on goal (5.0).
Brentford is enjoying a solid year in their first ever EPL season with a 3-3-3 record, but a very solid +0.62 xG differential thanks to a defense both the third fewest shots per game (11.1) and shots on goal (3.4). I'll always back the better defense when we don't have to lay any goals or a big price.
TAKE BRENTFORD +0
Line Parameter: 3% at +0 up to -125, 2% to -140, no play at -0.25
Game: Southampton at Watford
Date/Time: Oct 30 2021 10:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Watford +0.25 (-115)

Game: Koln at Dortmund
Date/Time: Oct 30 2021 3:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: PARLAY Dortmund ML & Both Teams to Score (+150)

Germany Bundesliga
Yes Haaland will be missing again for this match as he’s out likely through 2021 and possibly longer, however they are more than just him and were able to win 3-1 on the road at Arminia in their last match.
On the season, Dortmund have seven wins thru nine games, winning all five at home, yet they have yet to keep a clean sheet allowing goals in all nine games. Koln have scored in all but one match this year while matching Dortmund having yet to keep a clean sheet as well.
BTTS has come through in the last five H2H meetings and I actually think Dortmund winning is riskier than Koln not scoring here. But it’s a great price and worth a play.
TAKE DORTMUND TO WIN & BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
Line Parameter: 3% to +125
Game: Bayern Munich at Union Berlin
Date/Time: Oct 30 2021 9:30 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Bayern Munich -1.5 (-110)

Germany Bundesliga
There is no need to overthink anything related to Bayern right now. Just bet them to win and cover. They are playing absolutely insane right now and continue to just smash whoever they are up against. Yea, they have a midweek UCL match next week at Benfica, but it doesn't matter. They pretty much have the group locked up already with the full nine points and a perfect 12:0 goal differential.
Overall they do have that one loss at Frankfurt, but that is there only blemish in their last 13 games with 12 wins and that one loss. Even more impressively, that loss is the ONLY time they have failed to win by 2+ goals over their last 11 games, beating teams like Barcelona, Benfica, Leverkusen, and RB Leipzig, all on the road, and all by 3+ goals!
Their xG numbers are the best of all Big 5 Teams, generating 3.45 xG per game with a +2.64 xG differential per game and they are both #1 in total shots per game (18.9) and #1 in shots allowed per game (8.4).
Union Berlin are having a good season and have given Bayern trouble the last two seasons, but I don't care. This Bayern team is another animal right now and Lewandowski just can't help himself but to score goals.
TAKE BAYERN MUNICH -1.5
Line Parameter: 5% to -1.75, pay up to -135 to get -1.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-29-2021, 09:22 PM

ASA

7 star Cincinnati

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-29-2021, 09:22 PM

Marc Lawrence

5 Texas

Hot CFB Perfect System club play....Michigan State

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-29-2021, 09:22 PM

Vernon Croy

4* Wisconsin

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-29-2021, 09:22 PM

Jason Sharpe

6* Stanford
4* Louisville
4* Rutgers
3* Rice
3* Texas
3* UCLA
3* Wyoming

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-29-2021, 09:23 PM

Mike Missanelli-

Nebraska -7.5

Service Plays Saturday 10/30/21

Service Plays Saturday 10/30/21

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