Service Plays Sunday 10/31/21

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank sawyer

Gom Saints

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

25 goy Colts ml

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog

philadelphia eagles -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GOODFELLA

3* CLEVELAND BROWNS -3 - good up to -5.5

3* OVER 48 - NEP - LA CHARGERS - good up to 50.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Lombardi

Pats, Saints , Chiefs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Sharp Action

1 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

The Titans (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) have won three straight, including a pair of impressive wins over the Chiefs 27-3 and the Bills 34-31. Tennessee won outright as a 4-point and 6-point home dog, respectively. Meanwhile, the Colts (3-4 SU, 5-2 ATS) have won three of their last four games and just beat the 49ers 30-18, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. The early lookahead line on this game was Colts -2.5 at home. The public is all over the Titans after their pair of impressive wins and can't believe Tennessee is getting points. This overload of money flipped the Titans to -1.5 early in the week. But ever since, respected money has hammered Indianapolis, steaming the Colts back to a 25-point home favorite. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the contrarian favorite Colts. We could also see a higher scoring game in this one. The total opened at 47.5 and has risen to 51. Both teams are 4-3 to the over this season.

4:05 p.m. ET: New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers

The Patriots (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) are 2-1 over their last three games and just crushed the Jets 54-13, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Chargers (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) are coming off a bye and just got demolished by the Ravens 34-6, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with Justin Herbert and company off a bye. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line fall from 6 to 4.5. This indicates some respected money on Belichick and the Pats plus the points. Road teams that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 41-32 ATS (56%) this season. Conference dogs 7 or less are 36-20 ATS (64%). Short road dogs 6 or less are 26-11 ATS (70%). Ron Torbert, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (58% ATS).

8:20 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings

The Cowboys (5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS) are the only NFL team to cover every game this season. In their last game, Dallas outlasted New England 35-29 in overtime, covering as 3.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Vikings (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) started 0-2 but have since gone 3-1, most recently beating the Panthers 34-28 in overtime, covering as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Dallas listed as a short 1.5-point road favorite. The public thought the line was way too good to be true and hammered red-hot Dallas laying a short number. This lopsided betting pushed the Cowboys up to -2.5. But then news broke about Dak Prescott's calf strain. With his status up in the air, we've seen an overload of big money pound the Vikings, flipping Minnesota to a 3-point home favorite. We've also seen some under money hit the market, dropping the total from 53 to 51.5. Unders that stay the same or falla re 34-27 (56%) this season.



More Week 8 Moves

Dolphins-Bills Under 49.5 to 48.5

Bengals -8.5 to -11 at Jets

Browns -3 to -4 vs Steelers

Jaguars-Seahawks Over 43 to 44.5

Washington-Broncos Over 44 to 45

Bucs-Saints Under 50.5 to 48.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PickHub
PIttsburgh +4.5
Panthers +3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Godfatherlocks october 31st picks
(no email at 5:30pm. Entire day.)

nfl, mlb, & nba
massive 10k unit pick
3 huge 5k unit picks
2 top rated 2k unit picks


*** massive 10 dime / 10k unit pick ***
(7-3-1 all-time nfl 10 dime record)

indianapolis colts -3 (nfl)


*** huge 5000 unit picks ***

#1 - denver broncos -3.5 (nfl)

#2 - new england patriots +4 (nfl)

#3 - houston astros -115 (mlb)


*** top rated 2000 unit picks ***

#1 - charlotte hornets +1 (nba)

#2 - utah jazz -1.5 (nba)

[dawggy]

OSKEIM SPORT

2 Star Investment


New Orleans Saints (+4.5/+5) (-110) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers


Analysis: Tampa Bay falls into a negative 7-31 ATS contrarian system of mine that invests on certain favorites that are averaging 385 or more yards per game following three consecutive contests in which they gained 450 or more total yards. Tampa Bay's potent attack struggled against the Saints last season, gaining just 310, 194 and 316 total yards in three games, respectively. Tom Brady averaged 216 yards passing in those games and threw more interceptions than touchdown passes. Brady's 35.7 QBR was the second-worst of any quarterback the Saints faced last year and more than 30 points below his season average of 67.8.


Brady will likely be without wide receiver Antonio Brown, which is significant in that Brown leads the team averaging 2.07 yards per route run. Brady's other favorite weapon, receiver Mike Evans, will be shut down by New Orleans cornerback Marshon Lattimore. Evans was suspended for a hit on Lattimore back in 2017 and the animosity between these two has only gotten worse. Since 2019, Lattimore has lined up across from Evans on 110 pass snaps, allowing just one three-yard touchdown reception on seven targets in that time while forcing three incompletions.


Running back Leonard Fournette's role has expanded over the past four weeks, totaling the second-most touches (84) among running backs and playing 66% of the Buccaneers' offensive snaps. However, Fournette will be neutralized by the Saints' elite defense, which ranks third in the league in DVOA and second in rush DVOA, per Football Outsiders. New Orleans' stop unit welcomes back interior defender David Onyemata, who just finished serving a six-game suspension and ranked sixth among qualified defenders in pass rushing efficiency last year.


From a technical standpoint, New Orleans is a profitable 10-2 ATS as an underdog since 2018, and the Saints are 9-5 straight-up and 11-3 ATS as home underdogs under head coach Sean Payton. The current line only serves to motivate the Saints, who have not been a home underdog of four or more points since 2017, and it's just the third time they have been a four-point home underdog under Payton.


New Orleans is undervalued in the betting market and the Buccaneers have yet to cover the Vegas number away from home this season (0-3 ATS). Grab the points with the Saints and invest with confidence.





2 Star Investment


Indianapolis Colts (ML) (-140) over Tennessee Titans

Analysis: Tennessee arrives off back-to-back upset wins over the Bills and Chiefs (in a seven-day span!), which is significant in that the Titans are 0-4 ATS coming off consecutive upset wins. Tennessee is a money-burning 5-15 SU and 6-13-1 ATS in the past twenty meetings in this series, including 2-9-1 ATS in games in which the Colts own a .401 or greater win percentage. Indianapolis has won three of its past four games, with the only loss coming in overtime against Baltimore, following an 0-3 start to the season. The Colts covered the spread in all four of those games behind the play of quarterback Carson Wentz, who has thrown multiple passing touchdowns and zero interceptions in those contests.


Carson Wentz vs. Tennessee Defense


Since Week 4, Wentz ranks second in the NFL in QBR (73.2) and has relied on wide receiver Michael Pittman, who is averaging 2.11 yards per route run (16th in NFL). Wide receiver TY Hilton (quad) is expected to be back on the field and Wentz should have success moving the chains through the air against a Tennessee secondary that ranks 22nd in the league in pass DVOA, per Football Outsiders. Despite limiting Kansas City to three points last week, the Titans' defense still ranks 24th in yards per play allowed (5.95). Tennessee ranks 30th in DVOA on passes thrown at least 16 yards through the air, which is good news for a Colts offense that boasts the highest DVOA in the NFL on deep passes.


Wentz will also have more time in the pocket to find open receivers with the return of starting right tackle Braden Smith, who has missed the last six games but has practiced this week and is expected to play. Wentz benefits from having running back Jonathan Taylor in the backfield, who has averaged 16 rushing attempts and 126 rushing yards over the last two weeks. More than 40.5% of Taylor's rushing yards have come on gains of 15 yards or more and I expect that percentage to increase after Sunday's game against Tennessee.


The Colts Underrated Defense


Indianapolis possesses an underrated stop unit that ranks 12th in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA, including ranking No. 1 in rush DVOA. The Colts own the NFL's second-best third-down defense (-0.478/Play) and have allowed a combined 5-of-16 attempts to be completed for first downs when playing Cover-2 and Cover-3. Indianapolis is blitzing on just 28% of the third down passes it's faced this season and rushing just four on third down has returned a 46% pressure rate (6th-best in NFL).


Indianapolis also does an excellent job in getting the football back to its offense when trailing in a game. With a lead, opposing offenses typically run the ball more to shorten the game. However, the Colts defense controls the line of scrimmage by erasing running lanes between the tackles and generating tackles for loss. According to the metrics used by Pro Football Focus (PFF), Indianapolis has the league's second-highest Run Defense grade (82.9) and average depth of tackle (2.50). In goal-to-go situations, the Colts have stuffed runners on 4 of 4 chances from the 1-yard line.


Linebacker Darius Leonard has an 81.8 run-defense grade through seven weeks (per PFF), which is third among qualified linebackers, and will slow down Derrick Henry. Leonard has three forced fumbles, two interceptions and two pass breakups this season and the Colts run defense has allowed the lowest EPA per run play mark in the league, even after facing Henry and the Titans once already. Fellow linebacker Bobby Okereke has the 20th-highest grade among 81 qualified linebackers, while rookie Kwity Paye has exceeded expectations in his first season.


Grab the points with Indianapolis and invest with confidence.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers

Pitt
San Fran

3% Steelers +3' (-110)
3% 49ers -4 (-110)
3% Patriots/Chargers Over 49 (-110)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin

added

2% Houston Astros (-115) - Action

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony George

4 Units - #959 Houston (-115) vs Atlanta *8:15 EST

[Firemedic]

Craig Trapp 5% Cincinnati
Marco & Gianni?
TIA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PROFOOTBALLDOC (4-1 last week, 23-12 for season)
SIC Score is our proprietary numerical injury grading system that incorporates the health of every NFL team and individual players to give sports bettors, DFS players and fantasy owners an edge each week during the season. While it purposely doesn’t take into account coaching, schemes or matchups, SIC Scores give an accurate assessment of team/player overall health heading into a game.

CINCINNATI -11.5
We know this is a big lay on the road and is vulnerable to a back door cover but this game provides the biggest health advantage of the week with a 23 point team SIC score differential. The Jets are still beleaguered defensively, especially against the run. Now the offense is without its starting QB and #1 WR. Meanwhile the Bengals miss just one starter on each side of the ball and Joe Burrow is “green” and healthy for the second week in a row. Last week, his Bengals were +6.5 road underdogs as our favorite play of the day and they cruised to an upset easy win versus the Ravens. This right side seems clear here.

CLEVELAND -4
The overall health for both teams are about event but this is a play based on the Browns emerging health. The offense jumped an astounding 45.4 on the SIC score scale, making this the biggest one week change of the season. Baker Mayfield is back as we expected. Nick Chubb will play. Jarvis Landry’s knee issue is minor and not related to the MCL. Odell Beckham, Jr. will be healthier with his grade 3 right shoulder injury and his knee is getting healthier. Cleveland even gets both of its tackles back. This choice is all about the Browns health improvement that may not have been accounted for in the line.

ATLANTA -3
The Falcons offensive is completely healthy and the Panthers still don’t have Christian McCaffrey. Carolina has gone winless in the four contests without their best offensive weapon. There is a double digit SIC score overall difference and that puts Atlanta as the more reliable team.

JACKSONVILLE vs SEATTLE under 44.5
The defenses are on average rank 17.5 higher on the SIC score than the offenses. The Seahawks are without Russell Wilson and Chris Carson. The Jaguars have offensive line issues and have last D.J. Chark their WR1 for the season while they face a completely healthy Seattle defense. When offenses have injuries against a healthy defense, that tends to an under play.

MINNESOTA -3
People who got on the Vikings early are likely to have a big middle opportunity. The line started as Dallas -2.5 and now has gone all the way to Minnesota -3. We have felt all along that Dak Prescott would be medically cleared and able to play and this has been confirmed. However, whether he plays is still a big question mark and we discussed my direct experience in the NFL and how these decisions are made. When we started to opine that we felt Dak would not be allowed to play due to a big NFC East lead and potential of aggravation where he might miss multiple weeks, the line was at Vikings -2.5. We will take the current line of -3 at time of writing/publishing but don’t be surprised if the line rises if Cooper Rush is the Cowboys starting QB. Minnesota is the healthier side as we have already factored into the Field View and SIC score that Prescott will be held out.

Honorable Mentions: (Does not count towards the overall record)

LA RAMS @ HOUSTON under 46.5
The Rams are healthier but 15.5 is a lot to lay on the road. The numbers are better to go with the under given the double digit SIC score differentials. The Texans still start Davis Mills and have offensive line issues. Meanwhile the Texans are very healthy on defense while the Rams miss two starters. This is an honorable mention and not one of the five picks that will count against our season record.

PHILADELPHIA @ DETROIT under 48.5
In this battle of two injured teams, the offenses are more battered than the defenses. Both teams are somewhat unpredictable, but the offenses may sputter here. The Eagles are without offensive linemen and RB1 Miles Sanders. The Lions have two key offensive linemen on IR and don’t have a lot of firepower.

[Bear's Fan]

Maddux - All 10's - Lines when released (LW 1-7, YTD 26-35)

Cle -3(15)
Car +3
Ind -2'
Den OV 44(15)
Pha -3
SF -4