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Sunday 11/7/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Nov 07 '21, 1:00 PM in 1h
NFL | Bills vs Jaguars
Play on: Jaguars +14½ -110 at SC Consensus
Taking the Jaguars +14.5 for a Free Pick here...
This team is bad. Urban Meyer is bad. I do however believe that Trevor Lawrence is improving as he gains NFL experience. Of course the Bills have the ability to completely dominate this game, and they probably will. But, getting more than two TDs in the NFL is a lot and it's absolutely clear we are getting the value on the Jacksonville side when nobody wants to bet them.
I have the fair value of this game hovering around +10 from the average of our model outputs. In addition to that, the Jaguars are in a great historically profitable situational spot. Betting against the public on a sub .500 team (against the spread and straight up) vs. an above .500 team (ATS and SU) is a sure fire way to profit in the long run.
Good luck!
Nov 07 '21, 1:00 PM in 1h
NFL | Browns vs Bengals
Play on: Bengals -2½ -109 at pinnacle
Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Cincinnati Bengals -2.5
The Cincinnati Bengals were coming off a massive 41-17 road win over the Baltimore Ravens heading into their showdown with the New York Jets last week. Predictably, they fell flat on their faces and failed to show up in their upset loss to the Jets as 11.5-point favorites.
But now they should be refocused with a division opponent coming to town Sunday and put their best foot forward. And it should be good enough to win and cover as 2.5-point home favorites as I believe the Bengals are the better team than the Cleveland Browns right now.
Cleveland is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last four games overall. They lost 42-47 on the road to the Chargers, 14-37 at home to the Cardinals and 10-15 at home to the Steelers with the last two being upset losses. Their lone victory was an ugly 17-14 home win over the lowly Denver Broncos during this stretch.
While the Bengals are as healthy as almost anyone in the NFL, the Browns have one of the worst injury reports in the league, which is one of the biggest reasons for their struggles. Baker Mayfield isn't right, T Jack Conklin is out, the defense has several injuries, and many skill position players are either out or banged up. Plus, Odell Beckham Jr. has been a distraction with his dad calling out Mayfield for not throwing him the ball when he's open. I just don't like the chemistry with their team right now.
Cincinnati has the numbers of an elite team and many bettors are failing to see it. The Bengals rank 5th in the NFL averaging 6.2 yards per play on offense. But it's their improvement defensively that has been most impressive. They rank 8th in the NFL in giving up just 5.3 yards per play, so they are outgaining opponents by 0.9 yards per play, which is one of the best YPP differentials in the league. Stopping the run is the key to stopping the Browns, and Cincinnati gives up just 94 rushing yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry.
The Bengals want revenge from two tough losses to the Browns last season by 3 and 5 points. Cincinnati is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Cleveland is 10-26-1 ATS in its last 37 vs. AFC North opponents. The Browns are 10-29-2 ATS in their last 41 vs. a team with a winning record. Cincinnati is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss. Bet the Bengals Sunday.
Nov 07 '21, 1:00 PM in 1h
NFL | Raiders vs Giants
Play on: Raiders -3 -106 at pinnacle
Dave's Sunday Free Play:
1* on Las Vegas Raiders -3 The Key: The situation is a great one for the Las Vegas Raiders. They are coming off their bye week and playing some great football this season at 5-2 and coming off 2 straight blowout wins over the Broncos and Eagles. The Giants are in a tough situation that may result in a hangover from their 17-20 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football. They are now on a short week and the injury report just keeps getting worse for them. They are down to a bunch of practice squad players at receiver at this point and still without Saquon Barkley. The offensive line is a mess and there are several injuries on defense as well. The Giants are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 home games. Take Las Vegas.
Nov 07 '21, 1:00 PM in 1h
NFL | Broncos vs Cowboys
Play on: Broncos +10 -108 at pinnacle
Play - Denver Broncos
Edges - Broncos: NFL road dogs coming off a win of 6 or more points this season are 12-6 SU and 15-3 ATS, and QB Teddy Bridgewater is 23-5 ATS away as a starter in the NFL … Cowboys: 3-7 ATS as non-conference home favorites of 10 or fewer points … With that, we recommend a 1* play on Denver. Thank you and good luck as always.
Nov 07 '21, 1:00 PM in 1h
NFL | Raiders vs Giants
Play on: Giants +3½ -120 at BetVegas
The Raiders are 2-0 post-Jon Gruden averaging 33.5 points in beating the Broncos and Eagles. But they did not have a quiet bye week. The team was shattered by the unconscionable behavior of Henry Ruggs, who killed a young lady and her dog in a car crash by plowing into her car while drunk.
Ruggs was driving at 156 mph on a Vegas residential street that I have driven many times where the speed limit is 45 and you are driving dangerously if you go over 60 mph.
Ruggs is a moron of the first degree. The ramifications of his actions are a huge distraction for the Raiders off the field. As far as on the field, the Raiders now lack their only vertical wide receiving threat. Las Vegas doesn't have a wide receiver with the talent of Riggs, who was immediately booted off the team.
Even though they have been idle, this is still a cross-country journey for the Raiders and it's an early start time for them. The Raiders are 2-6-1 ATS the last nine times they've been favored.
The Giants won't have Saquon Barkley, nor Sterling Shepard. But Daniel Jones does have receiving firepower with Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney and John Ross all likely to play.
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