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3-Unit Play. #355. Take Liberty +9.5 Over Ole Miss (Saturday @ 12:00 pm est)
We roll with Liberty here as I think they are a live dog and getting too many points so we will gladly take them. This is a homecoming of sorts here for Hugh Freeze as he returns home and will face his former team. He left on not so great terms with the recruiting scandal and I expect him and his team to be prepared and motivated here. Liberty is not a team to take likely here and can put up points. This is a non conference game for Ole Miss with a big game on deck against Texas A&M. I get they come off a loss but not being familiar with Liberty as its a team they have never faced or any history against I think will be trouble for them this week. I think Ole Miss gets caught looking ahead to next week with a much more important game on deck and Hugh Freeze has his troops ready for this one. This is too many points for Liberty and we like them to hang tough and keep this one close. Flames are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win. Rebels are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Game: (321) Pittsburgh at (322) Duke
Date/Time: Nov 6 2021 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Pittsburgh -21.0 (-120)
#321 4* Pittsburgh -21 Duke Noon ET
Pittsburgh is now #4 in country at +189 YPG facing a Duke team that is #126 in defense vs conference opponents. Duke’s D allowing 525 YPG the L4 while their offense has been held to 7 points or less in 3 of the L4. Pitt now 10-3 ATS their last 13 road games including 3-0 this season covering by over 15 PPG.
Game: (367) North Texas at (368) Southern Miss
Date/Time: Nov 6 2021 3:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: North Texas -4.5 (-120)
#368 4% North Texas -4.5 Southern Miss 3 PM ET
Laying point of the road with a 2-6 team is not always sound betting advice but North Texas is only minus 7 YPG much more like a 4-4 team. The Mean Green are 6-2 ATS and in their last 4 games they went to Missouri as an 18.5 pt dog and had a 19-yard edge, were only outgained by 66 yards as an 11 pt dog to Marshall and had a 104 yard edge as a 21 pt dog vs Liberty before winning on the road LW at Rice. Southern Miss is banged (#116 getting outgained by 88 YPG) with an offense htta has not TOPPED 255 yards in 5 of their last 6 games (had 378 yards at Rice).
Game: (379) Navy at (380) Notre Dame
Date/Time: Nov 6 2021 3:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Navy +21.0 (-115)
#379 4% Navy +21 Notre Dame 3:30 PM
Navy line is inflated because 2-6 record and starting 0-2 getting outscored 72-10 their first two games. The Midshipmen however have covered 5 of their last 6 games with a defense that has allowed only 330 YPG their last 7 games. Notre Dame off USC and North Carolina and the Irish D has not held any of their 8 opponents to a season low and season #2 low. Irish 2-5 vs Navy in L7 and while they had played them every year they did not prep for the option last season and are without their top defensive player Kyle Hamilton.
Game: (395) Auburn at (396) Texas A&M
Date/Time: Nov 6 2021 3:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 49.5 (-110)
#395/#396 3% UNDER 49.5 Auburn/ Texas A&M 3:30 PM
Game: (361) Utah State at (362) New Mexico State
Date/Time: Nov 6 2021 4:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: New Mexico State +18.5 (-110)
#362 4% New Mexico St +18.5 Utah St 4 PM ET
Utah St having a very nice season pulling three upsets but they’ve been an away favorite once, laying 7 points at UNLV and only winning 4. I have this Aggies team close to UNLV power ratings-wise and we are getting 18.5. The New Mex St offense gained 452 yards at Nevada and 485 yards at Hawaii their last two games and they will be able to run against a Utah St rush D that is #11 in the MW allowing over 200 YPG.
Game: (335) Houston at (336) South Florida
Date/Time: Nov 6 2021 7:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Houston -13.0 (-110)
#335 3% Houston -13 USF 7:30 PM ET
The Houston DL with 31 sacks (15.0 sack%) will maul an OL that has allowed o sacks the last two games but it was versus Temple and East Carolina. Excluding the Temple & Florida A&M games the Bulls D has allowed 517 YPG, Houston with only Temple on deck.
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