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Danny Burke’s Best Bet (VSIN)
Los Angeles Kings at Toronto Maple Leafs (-255, 5.5)
We’re starting to see 6s on this total between the Kings and Maple Leafs and I agree with the notion that this could be a higher-scoring game. This is a small play on a light card, but Toronto is averaging nearly 11 high-danger chances per game at 5-on-5 this season. The Kings are averaging 9.6 and Toronto is giving up an average of 9.7 per game. The Maple Leafs are not great in their own zone, but do generate tons of offensive chances.
Toronto’s high-danger save percentage is a bit high in my opinion, so that seems ripe for some regression. On the other hand, Toronto’s high-danger shooting percentage is low, as their actual Goals For at 5-on-5 is 21, but their Expected Goals For (xGF) is almost 28. We should get a lot of opportunities tonight, so I have a small play here on the over.
Pick: Over 5.5 (or 6 with low juice)
Los Angeles Kings at Toronto Maple Leafs (-255, 5.5)
We’re starting to see 6s on this total between the Kings and Maple Leafs and I agree with the notion that this could be a higher-scoring game. This is a small play on a light card, but Toronto is averaging nearly 11 high-danger chances per game at 5-on-5 this season. The Kings are averaging 9.6 and Toronto is giving up an average of 9.7 per game. The Maple Leafs are not great in their own zone, but do generate tons of offensive chances.
Toronto’s high-danger save percentage is a bit high in my opinion, so that seems ripe for some regression. On the other hand, Toronto’s high-danger shooting percentage is low, as their actual Goals For at 5-on-5 is 21, but their Expected Goals For (xGF) is almost 28. We should get a lot of opportunities tonight, so I have a small play here on the over.
Pick: Over 5.5 (or 6 with low juice)
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