Tuesday 11/9/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Finger Lakes (2nd) One Ticked Lady, 5-1
(5th) Stoni Braxton, 3-1

Indiana Grand (1st) Miss Bette Lute, 8-1
(4th) Shipshape, 9-2

Mahoning Valley (3rd) Sanibel, 3-1
(6th) Storm Risk, 4-1

Mountaineer (1st) U S S Costly, 3-1
(5th) What a Tart, 3-1

Parx Racing (2nd) Wild Haven, 6-1
(10th) Start Meee, 4-1

Penn National (3rd) Against the Odds, 9-2
(8th) Silver Locks, 7-2

Turf Paradise (6th) Sunshine Beach, 3-1
(7th) First Call, 4-1

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Monday Myths: Is Aqueduct a Bettors' Letdown?

November 8, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

The opening of Aqueduct is a letdown for bettors of the New York circuit.

Background:

The year-round racing schedule in New York shifts to Aqueduct on Thursday and will continue at the winter stomping grounds until next spring. Sure, it’s not the coliseum at Belmont nor the cathedral at Saratoga in terms of a physical plant. And while the racing product, too, is an obvious drop-off, the real question poised to those betting the horses here: Is the betting also a letdown?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database for the past 5 years and looked at all results at Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga to get a feel for just how similar or different the results are between the NYRA circuit locales. I wanted to see the average win odds, percentage of winning favorites and likelihood of longshots (10-1) on the racing product. The everyday racing notwithstanding, I wanted to see how stakes races also compared at these betting markers since Belmont and Saratoga are so renowned for their championship quality.

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The average win odds at Aqueduct has been 4.89-1.
The average win odds at Belmont has been 5.08-1.
The average win odds at Saratoga has been 5.00-1.

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Favorites win 35.6% at Aqueduct.
Favorites win 35.6% at Belmont.
Favorites win 34.2% at Saratoga.

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Horses 10-1 or more have a 3.3% win rate at Aqueduct.
Horses 10-1 or more have a 3.5% win rate at Belmont.
Horses 10-1 or more have a 3.5% win rate at Saratoga.

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The average win odds at Aqueduct in stakes races has been 5.22-1.
The average win odds at Belmont in stakes races has been 4.51-1.
The average win odds at Saratoga in stakes races has been 4.65-1.

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Stakes favorites win 36.8% at Aqueduct
Stakes favorites win 40.6% at Belmont
Stakes favorites win 38.5% at Saratoga

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Stakes horses 10-1 or more have a 4.0% win rate at Aqueduct.
Stakes horses 10-1 or more have a 3.7% win rate at Belmont.
Stakes horses 10-1 or more have a 4.1% win rate at Saratoga.

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Overall Findings:

Aqueduct produces a slightly lower average win payout than Belmont or Saratoga, but only .11 and .19 lower per odds point, meaning 22 cents and 38 cents per $2 wager. The percentage of winning favorites at Belmont and Aqueduct is identical with Saratoga 1.4% less likely for favorites. When it comes to upsets, Aqueduct is slightly less likely to produce an upset winner by .2% compared to Belmont and Saratoga. In the stakes races, Aqueduct has produced slightly higher average payoffs and a corresponding lower rate of winning favorites.

Bottom line:

The aesthetics are different, the quality of horses different, and more dirt racing than turf, but the results the past 5 years at Aqueduct mirror what we see on the NYRA circuit at its sister tracks, Belmont and Saratoga. There’s no massive shift in results at any of these three venues. From a betting standpoint, there’s no letdown at the Big A.

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, are there particular class levels at Aqueduct that are more attractive to bet than at the other NYRA venues?

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Today’s Free Horse Picks – Tuesday, November 9th 2021
By Reggie Garrett

We have 5 tracks on Tuesday, November 9th, 2021. Reggie Garrett has his picks for each race at Indiana Grand, Parx and more. Good luck and enjoy!

Indiana Grand – 2:25 ET
Race 1: 1 Zoom Up
Race 2: 2 Bold Bizness
Race 3: 3 Shy Money
Race 4: 6 Benny’s Legacy
Race 5: 3 Eagle Cap
Race 6: 4 Macho Alegre
Race 7: 6 Little John Colony
Race 8: 2 Nothingbutflowers


Mahoning Valley – 12:45 ET
Race 1: 2 Mizzen Spoils
Race 2: 3 Buywon Getwon
Race 3: 3 La La Angel
Race 4: 5 Runaway Belle
Race 5: 5 Joes a Rockin
Race 6: 3 Storm Risk
Race 7: 7 Cajun Chaos
Race 8: 9 Cardinal Bird


Mountaineer – 7:00 ET
Race 1: 2 U S S Costly
Race 2: 5 Air Force Jet
Race 3: 3 Aces Up
Race 4: 2 Arista the Cat
Race 5: 5 Palm d’Oro
Race 6: 7 Data Princess
Race 7: 2 Stylish Ash
Race 8: 10 Mrs. Chapman


Parx – 12:25 ET
Race 1: 2 Starship Blanca
Race 2: 8 Dangerfield
Race 3: 2 Victory Built
Race 4: 5 Empress Irene
Race 5: 4 The Robert
Race 6: 8 Johnnyslittlegirl
Race 7: 3 Irish Colonel
Race 8: 1 Tactical Plan
Race 9: 9 The Jones Boy
Race 10: 2 Start Meee


Turf Paradise – 12:40 MT
Race 1: 2 Ms Cache Queen
Race 2: 7 Rwd Penelopes Cartel
Race 3: 6 Shakelas Destiny
Race 4: 1 Gage Has a Gray
Race 5: 5 Mr. Fireball
Race 6: 5 Fables Love Affair
Race 7: 4 First Call
Race 8: 4 Upper Room

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Daily Horse Racing Tips – Parx – 9th November

By Spotlight Racing Group
And they're off at PARX Racing
NAP: Dig Charlie Dig (3.34 ET Parx – Race 8)
Next Best: I Am Redeemed (4.01 ET Parx – Race 9)
Other: Mach Trial (3.07 ET Parx – Race 7)
Charlie the best bet

Race 8 at Parx on Tuesday is an $18,000 Claiming contest, and the Jamie Ness-trained Dig Charlie Dig is a standout bet.

He doesn’t have the best of strike rates, but this six-time winner gained one of those victories at Parx back in September 2020. His most recent victory came at Pimlico three starts ago, winning an allowance contest in comfortable fashion.

The key trend about his form is that it has come at higher levels, including a second in a $29,000 starter optional claiming race at Parx two starts back. This is a sizable drop in grade, and a wide draw doesn’t temper enthusiasm in him.

His consistency makes him a strong and reliable bet, too, with form figures of 243222128 in 2021. He’s likely to be played late by Ruben Silvera, but he can also race close to the pace, and that versatility is another tick in the correct box.

Pitched into the lowest grade he’s faced in over a year; he’s going to be very tough to stop in his bid for a seventh-career success.

Race 9 is a $45,000 Allowance contest, and Penny Pearce’s I Am Redeemed can get his career back on track.

He’s raced exclusively at Parx thus far, winning three of his six starts. That includes a $35,000 allowance victory and a stakes success in the form of the Storm Cat back in August.

It was no surprise to see him pitched into the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby on his fifth start, but he was ultimately outclassed. Better was expected in the M.P. Ballezzi Appreciation Mile last time, but a wide trip ultimately cost him a chance of featuring.

Although that was a shade disappointing, he’s now back down in grade, and it’s still very early days for this classy son of Redeemed. He does have the widest stall to negotiate, but his early pace should allow Abner Adorno to find a handy position.

The form of his sole allowance win at Parx has worked out well subsequently, and the form of Pearce’s string is another big positive. He’s won with 26% of his last 50 runners, and this three-year-old could be another in the win column.

Race 7 is a $26,000 Claiming contest, and Elias Tapsas’s Mach Trial can engage top speed under Dexter Haddock.

A nine-time winner in his career, five of those victories have come at Parx. He recently won an $18,000 contest over track and distance, swinging wide but readily taking command for a comfortable score.

In two subsequent starts, he ran to similar figures, including a fair fourth in a $35,000 claiming race. That sort of form gives him a huge chance in this field and his morning line odds of 8-1 look generous.

He’s drawn well in post two, and he should get the perfect rail trip, where he can save all the ground. If the gaps open in the straight, he’ll be staying on best of all late, and he shouldn’t be far away from the show.

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Penn National - Race #4
Picks Notes
#5 Martinkelly Seems like there is going to be plenty going on near the top, and this guy and occasional finishing gear that might allow him to settle back off the splits and rally late at a price.
#6 Jebologist He should be able to work out a good pressing trip from this wide draw, but he has had a tendency to settle for a lot of underneath slices with similar.
#3 Hard Belle He is in with a chance here with a mild rating ability that may serve him well, but I worry that he's going to get overbet in this spot. His best stuff keeps him right there, but he doesn't always bring his A-game at a short price.
Race Summary Martinkelly would benefit if all the slightly speedier types were to go from the gate, and he isn't too far off what some of these can offer, but he'll be showing a better price on the board.

Penn National - Race #6
Picks Notes
#3 Maldives Model She comes down in class out of that stakes try, and she was a winner with open company at this condition a couple starts back while racing on the turf. The dirt form stacks up fine in a modest spot.
#7 Cloud Skipping She turned in a good effort when getting around two turns for the first time in that last one, and these invading types from Parx usually tend to class up nicely with the locals.
#8 Glowing Star The form here can be inconsistent, but her best stuff would keep her in the frame late with these. Still, she probably doesn't offer a fair price on the board for this team.
Race Summary Maldives Model would feel very attractive at anything like the 3/1 ML price while getting down in class, and she can come rolling late from off the pace. She's a pretty reliable type through nine career starts, and I'll lean heavily on her here.

Penn National - Race #8
Picks Notes
#8 False Ruling I'm a bit concerned about her facing some other chasing types, but she'll get Lasix for the first time today after a couple of hard fade jobs to open her career. Demand a fair price on what figures to be an all or nothing runner.
#6 Caprichosa Thought about putting her on top, but she's out of excuses after a dozen starts. That said, the race shape might work in her favor when many of these are going to be going the wrong way late. Steady grinding effort keeps her there.
#10 Emilia Strong She's a really serious player here, but this is her 30th career start, and it's not like she's a serious threat at the wire in most of those recent losses. Capable player isn't for me.
Race Summary Tough read in a race where the most obvious horses have 29, 12, 23 and 24 starts to their respective names, and False Ruling at least only has two. She presumably has some upside here while racing with Lasix for the first time, and maybe she gets brave on the front end and discourages some chasers.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Pompano Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#4 BJ LORADO Parked long way, tired late, good value play versus similar foes.
#5 CAN'T SAY NO Won 4 of last 5 starts, Hennessey's choice on a double call.
#8 DG'S CAVIAR Hoosier invader boasts 17-50 record but starts outside.
Race Summary BJ Lorado was out and moving before the half, dueled outside the favorite until the stretch and faded late. He can turn the tables on several of the same rivals with a better trip. Play 4-5 and 4-8 exactas.

The Meadows - Race #3
Picks Notes
#3 ZOE ELLASEN Has looked good in wins at the Meadows, steps up in class off most recent one.
#1 PEEP N WEEP Stands 5/2-2-1 since October, moves outside in.
#2 SWEET BRITCHES Solid campaign was disrupted by 'sick' absence and break last week.
Race Summary Zoe Ellasen sped the middle half in :56 and maintained his margin to the wire. She can rate and can handle the class hike with a duplicate performance. Bet on her to win and place.

Dover Downs - Race #11
Picks Notes
#5 LANCASTER HILL Chased winner through deceivingly solid fractions, upset possibility.
#6 LYONS LIBERTY Met better at Harrah's Philadelphia in spring, question of readiness.
#1 BETTER BE SWIFT Ran 1-2-3 in his last four starts at this level, draws the rail.
Race Summary Lancaster Hill was the closest pursuer of the 2-1 winner on a track that played slow. He tired to finish fourth but only got beat 1-1/2 lengths, earning a playback at 12-1 on the morning line. Play a 5-ALL exacta.

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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Indiana Grand - Race #3
Picks Notes
#5 Tap N Sway Was along for third last out and gets an fired-up pace to chase; capable of moving well late.
#4 Short Summer Dress Won three straight until fourth last time; was an easy winner the late time she was on the Indiana main track and will ensure a fast pace.
#3 Shy Money Battled throughout and finished well for a clear win here last out; can pressure any of these and should be able to stick around for a major slice.
Race Summary Tap N Sway is 20-1 on the morning line but could benefit from chasing a fast pace; it would take a speed collapse in the stretch, but it looks like a possibility.

Indiana Grand - Race #6
Picks Notes
#3 Compass Point Has shown last interest in his last two, including a second two back; has been more effective at this six-furlong distance and can be a big player late.
#4 Macho Alegre Lost a photo last out after an easy maiden win two back; in the mix throughout.
#7 Remember Hymn Broke his maiden at Delaware two races back and didn't fire in his first vs. winners; lands in a good spot for his first at Indiana Grand.
Race Summary Compass Point can get a good stalking trip from the inside and he has what it takes to get past the leaders late.

Indiana Grand - Race #8
Picks Notes
#2 Nothingbutflowers Finished third in a sprint last time and in longer races is a strong front-end threat; fits well here.
#1 Timeless Rose Tried Keeneland last out and finished fifth after battling early; gets back to Indiana-breds and can be very strong.
#5 Wellington Wonder Tried stakes company in her last two and should perk up with this drop back to the allowance ranks.
Race Summary Nothingbutflowers will gun it from the start and can be the one to catch; has the best chance to upset Timeless Rose.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Mountaineer Park - Race #8 - Post: 9:55pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,900 Class Rating: 67

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#8 COUNTESS JESSICA (ML=6/1)
#2 STORMS A BREWN (ML=10/1)


COUNTESS JESSICA - Taking a trip down the ladder based on class rating points; has the form to make her presence felt. I think this filly is coming into top form. Personally, I wouldn't worry about where she finished in her last race (fourth). Should improve in this field, with some pretty good odds. This filly's last speed rating is high enough to triumph here, I'll wager on her back again this time. STORMS A BREWN - My experienced judgement tells me to watch out for this horse in this clash

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 QUEEN OF CORONA (ML=5/2), #6 LETSGETITPERFECT (ML=9/2), #10 MRS. CHAPMAN (ML=5/1),

QUEEN OF CORONA - Tough to put your dough on the win end of any animal that finishes second and third as frequently as this horse does. LETSGETITPERFECT - Recorded a quite unimpressive speed figure last out in a $4,000 Claiming race on Oct 27th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that figure. MRS. CHAPMAN - Last raced on Oct 25th at Mountaineer Park, finishing third. Not likely to get better off of that outing in today's race.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#8 COUNTESS JESSICA to win at post-time odds of 8/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

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1.	Profit On Sports	CFB	Miami-OH -7.5	1-0 (+100)	4-0 (+400)
2.	Doc's Picks	CFB	Akron +24.5	0-1 (-110)	4-2 (+180)
3.	Elite Sports Picks			1-0 (+100)	4-2 (+180)
4.	The Sports Consensus	NBA	Portland +3	1-0 (+100)	4-2-1 (+180)
5.	National Sports Service	NBA	Clippers under 221	0-0 (+0)	4-3 (+70)
6.	Top Rank Sports Picks	NBA	Utah under 222.5	0-1 (-110)	4-3 (+70)
7.	Primetime Sports Picks	CFB	Buffalo over 57	1-0 (+100)	3-3 (-50)
8.	The Spot Player	NBA	Atlanta +8	0-0 (+0)	2-4 (-240)
9.	Insider Sports Report	CFB	E. Michigan -6	0-1 (-110)	1-6 (-560)

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Pure Lock	NCAA Basketball	INDIANA HOOSIERS ‑24	0	0	0
R and R Totals	NCAA Basketball	EASTERN MICHIGAN EAGLES/INDIANA HOOSIERS o141.5	0	0	0
Rocketman Sports	NCAA Basketball	BUTLER BULLDOGS ‑25.5	0	0	0
The Money Team Wins Sports	NCAA Basketball	RIDER BRONCS +7.5	0	0	0
Tys Terrific Tips	NCAA Football	EASTERN MICHIGAN EAGLES ‑6	0	0	0

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Dave Price

Nov 09 '21, 7:35 PM in 31m
NBA | Bucks vs 76ers
Play on: Bucks -5½ -107 at pinnacle

Dave's Tuesday Free Play:
1* on Milwaukee Bucks -5.5
The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks are hungry for a win after dropping 5 of their last 6 games. They will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days so they will be the more rested team by far in this matchup with Philadelphia. The 76ers are a tired team playing for a 2nd consecutive day and their 5th game in 7 days. Making matters worse is being without their 3 best players in Embiid, Harris and Simmons with the first 2 out with COVID. They won't be able to handle this situation very well tonight, and the Bucks should roll to a comfortable win and cover. Take Milwaukee.

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Frank Sawyer

Nov 09 '21, 7:35 PM in 31m
NBA | Bucks vs 76ers
Play on: 76ers +6½ -106 at pinnacle

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR TUESDAY, 11/9:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut on Tuesday was the Philadelphia 76ers plus the points versus Milwaukee Bucks. Philadelphia (8-3) had their six-game winning streak snapped last night with their 103-96 loss to New York. The 76ers are undermanned with Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris out — but Doc Rivers has his available players working hard. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing without rest. The 76ers have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. Milwaukee (4-6) has lost two in a row and five of their last six games after their 101-94 loss at Washington on Sunday. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. Take Philadelphia plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

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Dustin Hawkins

Nov 09 '21, 7:38 PM in 34m
NHL | Oilers vs Red Wings
Play on: Red Wings +160 at William Hill

1 Dimer on Red Wings +160

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Black Widow

Nov 09 '21, 7:38 PM in 34m
NHL | Oilers vs Red Wings
Play on: Oilers -185 at Mirage

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Oilers -185

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Steve Janus

Nov 09 '21, 7:38 PM in 34m
NHL | Oilers vs Red Wings
Play on: Oilers -176 at SC Consensus

1* Free Sharp Play on Oilers -176