Service Plays Tuesday 11/9/21

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 369858

    #1

    Service Plays Tuesday 11/9/21

    Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

    NFL
    http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football

    College Football
    http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football

    Baseball
    http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball

    College Basketball
    http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball

    NBA
    http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball

    NHL
    http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey
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  • dawggy
    Senior Member
    • Dec 2017
    • 1770

    #2
    CAL SPORT


    Game:
    (603) Southern Illinois at (604) Arkansas Little Rock
    Date/Time: Nov 9 2021 6:00 PM EST
    Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
    Play Rating: 4%
    Play: Southern Illinois -6.5 (-110)


    We not only have a So Illinois squad with all 5 returning starters back BUT be add in JD Mulia who was the #24 JUCO player 2Y ago who missed last season with an injury and Ben Coupet who averaged Double-Digit the L2Y for THIS Little Rock squad. The Salukis return 97% of their scoring and they have SIX players with 500+ career points. Little Rock was picked 10th of 12 teams in the Sun Belt coming off an 11-15 season with three returning starters! I make this line So Illinois -12 and it was VERY CLOSE to being an opening night 5% TOP PLAY!!

    Comment

    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 369858

      #3
      nbaundertips

      Los Angeles Clippers – Portland Trail Blazers
      Under 221
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      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 369858

        #4
        overpicks

        Brasil – Serie B
        Operario – Remo
        Under 2
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        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 369858

          #5
          romariobtts

          CHILE: Primera Division
          S. Wanderers – Curico Unido
          Both to score : YES
          Odds : 1.90
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          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 369858

            #6
            bet-my-ticket

            Athletico – PR-Ceara : Over 2 @ 1.72
            Confianca – Nautico : Over 2 @ 1.55
            Total Odds : 2.66
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            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 369858

              #7
              Kevin Dolan

              3% Game (101) Buffalo at (102) Miami Ohio Play: Buffalo +7.0 (-105)
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              • dawggy
                Senior Member
                • Dec 2017
                • 1770

                #8
                John Ryan


                • Game: (625) Kansas at (626) Michigan State
                  Date/Time: Nov 9 2021 7:00 PM EST
                  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
                  Play Rating: 4 units
                  Play: Kansas -4.5 (-115)



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                  The line for this game opened with Kansas priced as a 4.5-point neutral court favorite. I believe you will see more money come in here on the unranked underdog, but getting Kansas at -4.5 is an attractive price.
                  My Pre-Flop and Live Betting Plan
                  In games like this one, consider betting 50% pre-flop, and then look to let scoring volatility work in your favor. For instance, there is a high probability that both teams will rip off 8 or more points without an answer from the opponent. So, if at any time during the first half, MSU goes on an 8 or more-point scoring run grab 25% of your normal 4-Unbits bet amount on the live line, and then again if MSU rips off 8-straight again OR if Kansas is an in-game +3.5 point underdog.
                  The risk of this wagering plan is that you end up with just 50% on Kansas, but that also implies that they win and cover the spread.

                  Coach Izzo is Fired Up
                  MSU head coach Izzo enters his 27th season with a very bad taste in his mouth as a result of not being ranked in the preseason polls since 2011. MSU did get the most points of the teams ranked 26 and higher, but still, he did state to the press he was “ticked” off. He is a great motivator and it spilled over to his players. So, you can expect them to show up with intensity to make a statement, but currently, they do not have a go-to player that takes over a game. That will evolve over the first 15+ games ahead of Big Ten Conference play. They have a strong and highly-touted recruiting class coming in led by top-20 recruit Max Christie.

                  The bottom line is I believe Kansas will absorb the MSU opening burst and then gradually wear them in the second half. Therefore, I do like the in-game betting strategy detailed above.
                  For the Database and the Predictive Models
                  The following team situations are from my predictive models and the performance measures are what I want to see in terms of the pace of play, shooting percentages, and others. MSU is 3-12 ATS when attempting 55 to 62 shots in games played over the last two seasons; 3-12 ATS when they have allowed 70 to 75 points; 0-8 ATS when scoring fewer than 65 points.

                Comment

                • dawggy
                  Senior Member
                  • Dec 2017
                  • 1770

                  #9
                  JM SPORT


                  • Game: (519) Atlanta Hawks at (520) Utah Jazz
                    Date/Time: Nov 9 2021 9:10 PM EST
                    Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
                    Play Rating: 3 units
                    Play: Utah Jazz -7.5 (-110)

                    3* #520 Utah Jazz (-7.5) over Atlanta Hawks –
                    As impressive as this Hawks team is they are coming into this game with no rest, playing the Warriors Monday night. This Hawks team so far this season is 0-6 ATS on the road, 0-2 on 0 rest, 0-2 w/ a rest disadvantage (coming into Monday)! Dating back to the beginning of 2020 the Hawks are also 22-29-1 ATS on the road and 5-9-1 w/ a rest disadvantage ATS. The Jazz on the other hand are coming off the loss to the Magic but they are 2-0 ATS so far this year with the rest advantage and 2-1 @ H, and dating back to 2020 they are also 11-5 w/ the rest advantage, 29-15-1 (66%) on their home court ATS, 21-13-1 vs. non-conference opponents and 51-35-1 ATS as a favorite. Moral of the story, Jazz at home, no Hawks on the road anytime soon.
                  • Game: (627) Toledo at (628) Valparaiso
                    Date/Time: Nov 9 2021 7:00 PM EST
                    Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
                    Play Rating: 2 units
                    Play: Toledo -4.0 (-110)

                    2* #627 Toledo Rockets (-4) over Valparaiso Deacons –
                    Toledo may not have had one of the hardest schedules last year, but they averaged over 81 PPG, with a +8.5 PPG differential on the season. The Rockets covered ⅔ of their games last season going 20-10 ATS (including 10-5 on the road) and Toledo kept 3 of their 5 scorers from last season against a Valparaiso team that has only 2 returning starters. Blue Ribbon has put Valparaiso at 9th in the conference, and have them taking a big fall in the defensive aspect, where they were so strong last year. The Deacons went just 5-5 ATS @ H last season and now they open their season against a Toledo team that looks to continue as a legitimate offensive threat.
                  • Game: (675) Jacksonville State at (676) Wichita State
                    Date/Time: Nov 9 2021 8:00 PM EST
                    Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
                    Play Rating: 2 units
                    Play: Jacksonville State +7.5 (-110)

                    2* #675 Jacksonville State (+7.5) over Wichita State –
                    Jacksonville State ended the season LY at 8-3 ATS on the road, and they have all 5 starters back. They averaged 74 PPG last season and even though they were allowing almost 69 OPPG, the team was out-rebounding opponents by over 5 RPG and both the offense and defense has improved this off-season. Wichita State lost 2 of the 5 starters, and even though the Shockers were 16-6 SU last season, they were just 5-7 ATS @ H, winning the games by an average of just 5 points.

                  Comment

                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 369858

                    #10
                    Tokyo Brandon Basketball

                    605) Akron at (606) Ohio State
                    Game: (605) Akron at (606) Ohio State
                    Date/Time: Nov 9 2021 6:00 PM EST
                    Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
                    Play Rating: 1%
                    Play: Akron Total Over 63.0 (+100)

                    My numbers have Akron at 72, I think with the start of the season teams tend to play lazy defense and the only team Ohio State allowed less than 67 to was Michigan in the last few games last season. Make a small play on Akron Over 63.

                    (607) St. Peter's at (608) Va Commonwealth
                    Game: (607) St. Peter's at (608) Va Commonwealth
                    Date/Time: Nov 9 2021 6:00 PM EST
                    Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
                    Play Rating: 1%
                    Play: Total Under 132.0 (-110)

                    Both of these teams have a stout defensive set and neither is an offensive juggernaut. Being that this is the first game of the season make it a smaller play but my projections have this total way under 130. Make a small play on the Under 132.

                    (611) IUPUI at (612) Butler
                    Game: (611) IUPUI at (612) Butler
                    Date/Time: Nov 9 2021 6:45 PM EST
                    Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
                    Play Rating: 1%
                    Play: IUPUI Total Over 57.0 (-105)

                    My numbers have IUPUI scoring over 70 in this one. Butler is in a tough conference but they allowed more points than they scored and I do not think their defense is all that great. 57 is a really low number, make a small play on the Over 57 or anything 58 or less.

                    (703) Louisiana Tech at (704) Alabama
                    Game: (703) Louisiana Tech at (704) Alabama
                    Date/Time: Nov 9 2021 9:00 PM EST
                    Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
                    Play Rating: 1%
                    Play: Total Under 152.5 (-110)

                    My numbers have this total at 140. Alabama has a tendency to have low scoring games against lower level competition and looking at the team totals I think both team totals are too high. Take the Under 152.5.

                    (301511) Nanjing Tongxi at (301512) Beijing Royal Fighters
                    Game: (301511) Nanjing Tongxi at (301512) Beijing Royal Fighters
                    Date/Time: Nov 9 2021 2:30 AM EST
                    Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
                    Play Rating: 1%
                    Play: Nanjing Tongxi Total Over 90.0 (-105)

                    I generally do not like putting money on terrible teams but 90 is a low number here and my projection models all have the Monkey Kings scoring over 90. They just scored 101 on the Royal Fighters last week. I think 90 is a low number so make a small play on the Over 90 for the Nanjing Monkey Kings.

                    (301515) Guangdong at (301516) Tianjin
                    Game: (301515) Guangdong at (301516) Tianjin
                    Date/Time: Nov 9 2021 7:00 AM EST
                    Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
                    Play Rating: 1%
                    Play: 1H Guangdong -490

                    Bad odds but Guangdong even though not quite themselves they are a much better team than Tianjin. Terrible odds so make a small 1% play on Guangdong to win the 1st half.

                    (301515) Guangdong at (301516) Tianjin
                    Game: (301515) Guangdong at (301516) Tianjin
                    Date/Time: Nov 9 2021 7:00 AM EST
                    Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
                    Play Rating: 1%
                    Play: Tianjin Total Over 90.5 (-120)

                    Tianjin is a terrible team but they score quite a lot, averaging 105 points a game. Guangdong is not the same team they were last champion season. They are having trouble scoring and the defense is shabby. The last two between these Tianjin went over 100. My number has it at 96 so make a small play on the Tianjin team total Over 90.5 or anything 92.5 or less.

                    (301267) Yokohama at (301268) Gunma
                    Game: (301267) Yokohama at (301268) Gunma
                    Date/Time: Nov 10 2021 5:05 AM EST
                    Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
                    Play Rating: 1%
                    Play: Gunma Total Under 87.0 (-105)

                    Yokohama is a bad team but they play pretty good defense. Gunma has padded their offensive numbers by playing cupcakes and Yokohama has held better offenses under this number. Take the Gunma team total Under 87 or 86.

                    Game: (301257) Shinshu at (301258) NeoPhoenix
                    Date/Time: Nov 10 2021 5:05 AM EST
                    Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
                    Play Rating: 1%
                    Play: Shinshu -4.0 (-105)

                    My numbers have Shinshu favored by 9. I think 4 is too low. SanEn has a horrible defense and are a terrible team. The last time they played Shinshu won by 5 and they are a better team this season. Lay the 4 and take the Brave Warriors.
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                    Comment

                    • Yellow
                      Senior Member
                      • May 2018
                      • 472

                      #11
                      Essler 3* GOM

                      Blazers +3

                      Comment

                      • Can'tPickAWinner
                        Super Moderator
                        • Nov 2012
                        • 369858

                        #12
                        Gambling God Sports Picks

                        CBB
                        RIDER +7.5
                        TARLETON STATE +16

                        NHL
                        MONTREAL
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                        • Can'tPickAWinner
                          Super Moderator
                          • Nov 2012
                          • 369858

                          #13
                          Sports Handicapper King

                          NCAA F
                          EASTERN MICHIGAN -6

                          NCAA B
                          WEST VIRGINIA -17
                          UTAH -9

                          freeplay ncaa b wisconson green bay +3
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                          • Equalizer14
                            Senior Member
                            • Sep 2021
                            • 145

                            #14
                            Northcoast Marquee Over 62 Akron/WMU

                            Comment

                            • Can'tPickAWinner
                              Super Moderator
                              • Nov 2012
                              • 369858

                              #15
                              R.A.S

                              Duke
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