Sunday 11/28/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Al Cimaglia: Pompano Park Pick 4 Analysis

November 28, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia

Pompano Park has a 9-race card set to begin the week. The popular 0.50 Pick 4 starts in Race 6. The sequence has a $15,000 guaranteed pool with a low 12% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

5-Maxdaddy Blue Chip (2-1)-Hoosier invader has been very good in both local starts. Took control into a 53.4 1st half last week and never looked back. Steps-up up but so does the entire field and should be battling #6 for top honors.
6-Double Metal (5/2)-Fled the scene in last to draw-off by 8 lengths to notch the 7th win in 24 starts. Finished the mile in the same time as the one above but was in softer. Now faces tougher in an interesting "match" race.

Race 7

2-Warrawee Veloce (9/5)-Raced well in last but Double Metal was a standout winner. Hennessey should leave and either be on the point or in the 2-hole, and either trip could lead to a picture.
8-Trashytonguetalker (3-1)-Moves up after an impressive win and Plano should have the pedal down and look to land on the engine. The start will be key, and this 9-year-old could stay good again.

Race 8

4-Lincolnjames (2-1)-Was used hard into a 53.4 opening half and faded down the lane. Hennessey sticks and the trip should be kinder this time. But will likely be a small price and this is a bump up in class.
5-Busboy Hanover (5-1)-Came off the bench to face a 149.4 winner and should fare better here. Could land in the pocket behind the one above and the price should be right.
7-Prairie Panther (4-1)-This is a scattered bunch and technically this is a move-up in class but has beaten this kind before. Was in versus a run-away winner in last and best to respect tonight.

Race 9

1-Brilliant Strike N (3-1)-Makes the 1st start for the Tee Wine barn after a claim and lands in a nice spot. Fits here and should make the most of this post draw so an encore could happen.
4-Rockntouch (8-1)-Came off a sick scratch, raced well at this level and then moved up and was in too tough. This veteran drops and might be sitting on a big try. Could post an overdue win at a big price.
8-Saulsbrook Deputy (4-1)-Makes its 3rd local start and fits with this group. This was Boyd's choice over #3, does need an honest pace and should get one. Paced the 2nd half in 55.2 last week and there is speed inside so could finish fastest of all.

0.50 Pick 4

5,6/2,8/4,5,7/1,4,8
Total Bet=$18

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Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Wagering Strategies - 11-28-21

November 28, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Big Mama Sue; 2-Taming the Tigress; 6-Big Clare

Forecast: The Sunday opener matches state-bred fillies and mares who are quite familiar with each other. There’s very little to separate the three listed above, so in a race that we’re not planning to play, all three should be used in rolling exotic play. Based on today’s nine furlong trip, we’ll give a very slight edge on top to Big Clare, a one-paced grinding type whose best career effort – a runner-up performance two races back – was accomplished at this nine furlong distance. F. Prat rode the P. D’Amato-trained filly on that occasion and is back aboard today, so at 5/2 on the morning line she may be the one that deserves the closest look.

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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: X
Single: 3-Today’s Flavor

Forecast: Today’s Flavor is listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite in this main track miler, but we have a hard time believing he won’t be odds-on. An excellent runner-up in his recent comeback in a fast, highly-rated sprint, the son of Laoban stretches out to a distance he’s bred to enjoy and projects to be the controlling speed, though if Vetoed is committed to the front end the D. O’Neill-trained colt should be able to draft in behind him and bide his time. If he winds up being too short on the tote, you can at least use him as a short-priced, rolling exotic single.

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RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Optimizing; 3-Derecho Dandy; 9-Get Back Goldie; 10-Verbal

Forecast: As is typical for a two-year-old turf stakes race this time of year, the Cecil B. DeMille S.-G3 brings together a number of highly-regarded prospects that are at various stages of development. What you see in the past performance charts may not be what you get, so we’ll spread the race in rolling exotic play while hoping to get a price horse home. Verbal won his debut over a mile on grass at Belmont Park last month in stylish fashion, settling off the pace and then easily taking control when given his cue. The son of Flintshire should have plenty of pace today to compliment his closing style, so under the assumption that he’ll move forward with that bit of experience behind him the C. Brown-trained colt logically deserves top billing. Optimising, a good second in the Qatar Golden Mile S. over this course and distance three weeks ago, is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from his favorable rail draw and should have every chance if good enough. Derecho Dandy graduated cleverly in his first grass try last month, and though able to make the running in that race before kicking home, the son of Connect strikes us as one that can be taken back if the pace flow dictates. Get Back Goldie earned a big figure when graduating as much best at this distance on grass at Santa Anita but did so in a maiden $50,000 claiming affair. Clearly, this is a much more difficult spot but based strictly on numbers he’s got a chance, so we’ll toss him in.

Notable Workouts:

Derecho Dandy (November 21, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1h TT). Grade: B-
Steady, even-keeled solo training track drill for Sadler, splits of :24.2, :36.3 and 1:01.1, niggled at a bit through the lane but never really asked. Improving with racing, doesn’t have a great turn of foot but should improve as the distances increase.
View Workout Video

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RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-Got Thunder; 5-Newgrange

Forecast: Maiden juveniles sprint six furlongs in a field that includes two very highly-regarded first time starters. Got Thunder is a strong, powerful colt with plenty of natural talent, though we suspect he’ll eventually do his best work over a distance of ground. The J. Sadler-trained son of Arrogate, a half-brother to the multiple Grade-1 stakes winning turf miler Heart to Heart, brought $750,000 in the OBS April Sale, where he previewed in 10 seconds flat, and has displayed enough early speed and athleticism in local morning drills to be extremely competitive sprinting on dirt. Newgrange, a debuting son of Violence trained by B. Baffert, is another that has caught the eye in workouts and seems fit, ready, and extremely talented. There are others in the field that can run as well, but these are the two that stick out and both should be included in rolling exotic play, with a very slight edge on top to Got Thunder.

Notable Workouts:

Got Thunder (November 20, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.4hg). Grade: B+
Wasn’t particularly quick leaving the gate but displayed good speed once in motion while in company with older stable mate Southern Horse (5f, 1:00hg) for J. Sadler, never really asked much while clearly best with splits of :24.2, :47.4 and 1:00.1 on our watches, a couple of ticks slower than given but nice nonetheless, then galloped to the wire in 1:14.3. Plenty of ability, strikes us as a colt who will eventually show his best with experience and distance.
View Workout Video

Newgrange (November 17, Santa Anita, 4f, :47hg). Grade: B+
Very impressive gate drill for B. Baffert while even but best with Montebello (same time), splits of :24.2, :35.4 :47 flat and :59.3 while galloping out five furlongs and then up at the wire in 1:13.2. Colt by Violence looks like a real prospect and seems plenty fit.
View Workout Video

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RACE 5: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Dancing Rinca; 3-Shut Up Michael; 8-Crosby Beach

Forecast: Maiden juveniles compete over a mile on grass in what appears to be a below average race for the level. Time will tell. Shut Up Michael makes his U.S. debut for trainer P. D’Amato (powerful stats with Euro shippers) and the gelded son of Galileo displayed enough ability in his only outing overseas to indicate he’s good enough to be a major player against this group. A series of solid workouts on dirt since arriving in the West should have him plenty fit, so at 4-1 on the morning line he looks as good as any and better than most. Dancing Rinca has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out angle and a bullet five furlong workout (:59.2h) since raced to make him quite dangerous, especially from his good rail post position. The son of Practical Joke exits a pair of very tough races and should find this bunch within his range. Crosby Beach needed the outing when a non-threatening fifth, beaten less than five lengths, in his debut at Santa Anita over this trip and surface. Second-time starting maidens from the M. McCarthy barn usually improve and we’re expecting this son of Gormley to do as well. He’s trained forwardly since raced and lands J. Ortiz, so at 8-1 on the morning line he looks intriguing.

Notable Workouts:

Crosby Beach (November 20, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h). Grade: B
Very nice drill without being asked to prove clearly best over Piroli (5f, 1:00.4h) in main track team drill for M. McCarthy, splits of :23.4, :35.3 and 1:00.3, plenty left late. Seems certain to improve after having a race under his belt.
View Workout Video

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RACE 6: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Cosmo; 5-Big Scott Daddy

Forecast: Cosmo has never been big on winning – he’s 1-for-15 – but in his first start following a $32,000 claim by D. O’Neill, the four year old gelding may be ready for a breakthrough performance. A bullet workout (5f, 1:00.3h) over the Santa Anita training track earlier this month seems significant, his one prior dirt track race (a distant third in the Los Alamitos Derby-G3 behind Uncle Chuck) wasn’t that bad, and his recent numbers are superior to par for this starter’s allowance main track miler. With Johnny V. taking the call and at 5/2 on the morning line, the son of Distorted Humor appears to have found his proper spot. Big Scott Daddy is worth including on your ticket as well. Third in his last pair, the son of Scat Daddy stretches out in his fourth outing following a long layoff, retains F. Prat, and has several back numbers that make him dangerous.

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RACE 7: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Viadera; 6-Regal Glory

Forecast: This year’s renewal of the Matriarch S.-G2 drew just six entrants, topped by a pair of Eastern shippers from the C. Brown barn. Regal Glory, first or second in 12 of 15 career outings (including eight wins), most recently finished an excellent runner-up in the First Lady S.-G1 at Keeneland in a performance that produced a career top (103) Beyer speed figure. Regular pilot J. Ortiz most likely will have her settled just off what projects to be a modest pace and then have every opportunity when the pressure is turned on. Brown’s other entrant, Viadera, won this race last year, though she may not quite as sharp now as then. Still, over a course she clearly likes, the English-bred mare has a legitimate look in her first start under turf master F. Prat.

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RACE 8: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: C
Use: 4-Fowler Blue; 6-Heaven’s Music; 8-Indio Mo Mo

Forecast: This maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for state-bred juveniles is a treacherous affair with nothing to trust. Those that project to be well-backed on the tote have holes in their past performance charts, but the long shots have nothing to offer. Tread lightly. Fowler Blue is listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite by default. He’s a first-time gelding dropping into a seller for the first time and receiving a break in the weights with the switch to competent bug boy D. Herrera, so there are three positive angles that are apparent to the handicapper. Last spring, he was fairly well regarded but never followed through; perhaps he’ll be better this time around, especially against this softer competition. Heaven’s Music and Indio Mo Mo, two-three finishers in a similar affair here earlier this month, should be in the battle once again. The former, a beaten odds-on favorite in that race, removes blinkers and figures to be prominent throughout, while the latter is a second time starter from a barn that is currently mired in a zero-for-34 streak with this angle (ugh!), but he did close a gap through the lane in his debut while giving hope that he’ll appreciate today’s extra half-furlong.

Notable Workouts:

Fowler Blue (November 14, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h). Grade: B-
In blinkers, chirped to and ridden through the lane, final three furlongs in :12 flat and :36.4 for Mendez. Not bad but needs a drop into the maiden claiming ranks this time around.
View Workout Video

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RACE 9: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-Charges Dropped; 7-Tony Ann

Forecast: The finale is a first-level allowance turf event over nine furlongs for fillies and mares that offers a full field of 12. There are two logical main contenders. Tony Ann was visually impressive graduating in her third career start last month at Santa Anita, winning a grass sprint with complete authority while earning a powerful speed figure that is better than par even for this tougher level. In addition to stepping up in class, she’s being asked to try her luck over a distance of ground, so the task won’t be easy, but the daughter of Cairo Prince has improved dramatically in each of her three career starts, so another forward move hardly would be surprising. She projects to be the controlling speed or at the worst a strong pace presser. Charges Dropped is a Midwest invader with some ability and the one to fear most. In the frame in her last two starts, most recently at Keeneland when earning a career top number, the daughter of Lemon Drop Kid attracts J. Ortiz, is comfortably drawn inside, and is likely to inherit a lovely ground-saving, stalking trip and have every chance from there.

Notable Workouts:

Charges Dropped (November 13, Santa Anita, 5f, 101.3h). Grade: B
Caught her from the half mile pole to the seven furlong pole inside and slightly best with Global Brand (same time), splits of :23.4, :48.3 and 1:01.4, easy early, light coaxing late. Seems in good shape, clearly prefers turf.

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Jerry Shottenkirk: My Late Pick 4 Ticket Sunday at Golden Gate

November 28, 2021 | By Jerry Shottenkirk

Golden Gate Fields makes for a good stop on my virtual Sunday tour, and it is bookmarked by a pair of strong maiden races that will probably produce from local stars of tomorrow.

Featured on the card is a solid starter allowance, which goes as the eighth.

The suggested ticket this week amounts to $72, and there are plenty of price plays weaved in with those those that will get a lot of play.

Here’s a look at the chosen combatants in the Late Pick 4 that goes from races six through nine.


6th Race (6:15 p.m. ET, maiden special weight)

PRAYER OF JABEZ barely missed in his only start and the Jonathan Wong stable continues to keep up its 24-percent success rate. Has enough speed to take the fight to them early and has the closing move to be a serious player late.

Gets a return engagement from jockey Evin Roman, who has had a good year with his 20-percent winning clip.

Also on the ticket: ROYAL ‘N RANDO, WILL IS CHILL, FLOYD KNOWLES.


7th Race (6:45 p.m. ET, claiming)

MALIBU JEWEL is a price play here as she comes in from a fourth-place finish.

Has had a good effort in three of her last four races over Tapeta and has the talent to be in the mix. Goes with ‘blinkers off’ and that could help her relax and retreat from the early pace. Others have a legit chance here, and she could big boost to a Pick 4 payoff.

Also on the ticket: BOLD ARTICLE, A J ROCK.


8th Race (7:15 p.m. ET, starter allowance)

MISS EVER READY weaved through traffic for a solid second-place finish last out in a race that came off the turf. Hasn’t won on this main track but has run well with four seconds in five starts.

Gets a good pace setup and can make a strong late run. Trainer Steve Sherman has her running well and can improve on his already impressive 19-percent success rate.

Also on the ticket: SKY ON ICE, LA REINE’S LEGACY, MISS EVER READY.


9th Race (7:45 p.m. ET, maiden special weight)

SQUARE FUN had a pair of thirds in three starts combined at Santa Anita and Del Mar and goes ‘blinkers off’ for her first at Golden Gate Fields.

Tired last time out after pressing early. Has been in one 4.5-furlong race and two at five furlongs and could get a more relaxed run going six furlongs. Trainer Doug O’Neill is 19 percent in horses going from dirt to an all-weather surface and is 27 percent here from three wins in 11 starts.

Also on the ticket: POWER SURGE, PRAY TO AN ANGEL.

Golden Gate Fields 50-cent Late Pick 4:
6) #5 Prayer of Jabez, #6 Royal ‘n Rando, #7 Will Is Chill, #8 Floyd Knowles.
7) #1 Malibu Jewel, #3 Bold Article, #6 A J Rock.
8) #1 Sky On Ice, #2 La Reine’s Legacy, #4 Torquay, #6 Miss Ever Ready.
9) #3 Power Surge, #9 Pray to an Angel, #10 Square Fun.
The ticket: 5-6-7-8 with 1-3-6 with 1-2-4-6 with 3-9-10 ($72)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fair Grounds - Race #6
Picks Notes
#9 Excellency He got a start under his belt at Delta late last month, and he can probably be tough here if he's able to take a step forward off the debut run. Tactical type should get first run.
#3 Lunar Rocket He has run pretty evenly in both lifetime starts, and he'll probably need better than what he has shown in order to land this. Capable barn is tough to overlook with this kind as he gets back on the grass.
#10 Iberville He'll get Lasix for this second start after fading late in the Kentucky Downs debut in September. He might find this group a bit more to his liking today.
Race Summary Excellency moves to the turf after a useful debut run at Delta, and he gets the slight edge in a race without any real standouts. He showed enough speed in that run to suggest he'll get a great trip tracking the splits.

Fair Grounds - Race #7
Picks Notes
#6 Ova Charged She's not going to offer any price, but she should be fun to watch here while moving in with Louisiana-bred company after suffering the first loss of her three-race career when second in Grade III company last time out. Huge class edge.
#3 Ourperfectprincess Her spring form has been pretty good, and she seems like a decent alternative if you're trying to beat the top choice. Still think she'll need a major misfire from that one to land this.
#4 Steph'sfullasugar She gets out of stakes company for the first time since her debut win, she's just unlucky to catch an open stakes quality runner in this allowance spot. Along late?
Race Summary Ova Charged has been so sharp in three starts, and this is probably a great jumping off spot after a layoff to prep her for her winter and spring campaign that probably has some more open stakes spots waiting for her.

Fair Grounds - Race #8
Picks Notes
#10 Shishito She rallied nicely enough on the synthetic footing at Presque Isle in her debut, and she'll get to the turf while racing with Lasix in this second start. Tactical type might like the new footing.
#1 Pearl Earring She'll race as part of an entry here while coming out of the same barn as the top choice, and she's also getting Lasix for the first time in here after an improved effort when getting blinkers in her second start.
#3 Paris Kentucky He hasn't turned in any big figures yet, but his best try came around two turns on the turf at Indiana Grand in his only race with Lasix, and he has a bit of price appeal in the gimmicks for me.
Race Summary Shishito and Pearl Earring give the Stidham barn a solid hand to play here, and I'll try to get longshot Paris Kentucky in the mix with one of those two Stidham players.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mountaineer Park Selections for November 28, 2021 – Horse Racing Picks
By Kyle E in Horse Racing — Nov 28th, 2021 2:00am PST

We have a full horse racing card on Sunday to handicap in North America. There are eight thoroughbred tracks in the US and one in Canada at Woodbine.

Industry Leading 9% Cashback!

The most wealthy race on the schedule is at Del Mar with the running of the $400,000 Matriarch Stakes (Gr. 1). Next weekend it’s time for Aqueduct Racetrack to step into the spotlight, as they host the feature race of the weekend in the US.

The $750,000 Cigar Mile Handicap (Gr. 1) is the biggest event on the card for next weekend’s action. That’s one of four stakes races on the docket at Aqueduct Racetrack on Saturday. There are also three other $250,000 events scheduled in New York.

We have picks at Aqueduct Racetrack for the Sunday card this morning and afternoon. Later in the day, you can check out what we have for Mountaineer Park in West Virginia. Mountaineer Park has eight races for $95,100 in prize money available. Head below for free Mountaineer Park picks on November 28, 2021.
Taking Your Horse Race Betting to the Next Level
Race 2
(1) Super Donna G
+250 (5/2)
(2) Ryoan
+300 (3/1)
(3) Cincy Belle
+3000 (30/1)
(4) Lookin for Candy
+800 (8/1)
(5) Miss Heart
+1500 (15/1)
(6) Express Banking
+140 (7/5)
(7) Devilish Magic
+1000 (10/1)

Post Time: 7:25 p.m. EST
Distance:6 Furlongs
Purse:$8,500

Race 2 is a modest race for a $8,500 purse before Sunday Night Football kicks off. Super Donna G and Express Banking must be taken seriously in this one.

Super Donna G is 4 for 26 in her career, and has finished 1st, 6th, 5th, 4th in her previous four attempts. She won by a head for a $10,000 purse on July 7.

In her most recent attempt, Super Donna G finished 4th for a $13,000 prize on September 8. This was after going 5th on August 9 in a $13,075 race.

Express Banking is 8 for 38 in her career, with a winning performance in her latest outing on October 11. She got the win by 7 ¼ lengths over Fleck for a $19,404 prize.

This was after placing 2nd behind Torpedo Max by 5 lengths for a $21,756 prize. This looks too easy for Express Banking on Sunday.
The Bet
(6) EXPRESS BANKING
+140
Place Bet Now!
Race 3
(1) City Peaks
+400 (4/1)
(2) Moon Link
+450 (9/2)
(3) Clear to Close
+1000 (10/1)
(4) Trapshot Reward
+1200 (12/1)
(5) Grito de Pablito
+180 (9/5)
(6) El Duque
+200 (2/1)

Post Time: 7:50 p.m. EST
Distance:1 1/16 Miles
Purse:$7,800

Another bet that you can make before Sunday Night Football kicks off is Race 3. El Duque and Grito de Pablito look like they are going to be tough to beat in this one.

El Duque has just one win in 42 attempts, but could find the second on Sunday night. The veteran has finished 3rd, 2nd, 4th in his previous three outings, placing 2nd behind El Solitario by 4 ½ lengths for a $11,300 purse on October 11.

El Duque finished 4th in his next and most recent attempt on November 15. He moved up in that one and showed some signs of progress. Continued progress on Sunday could signal a winning performance.

Grito de Pablito has a win in 22 races, and is showing nice form recently. He finished 6th, 4th, 2nd in his past three outings, placing 2nd behind Hard Astray by 3 ¼ lengths on November 15 for a $7,800 prize.

Hard Astray is a tough horse, but Grito de Pablito showed some resilient form in that outing. Against this weak field, Grito de Pablito has a good chance of getting this one done on Sunday night.
The Bet
(3) GRITO DE PABLITO
+120
Place Bet Now!
Race 6
(1) Selling Out
+600 (6/1)
(2) Traffic Thief
+3000 (30/1)
(3) A Big A Bad Bill
+3000 (30/1)
(4) Chatterman
+140 (7/5)
(5) Vow’s Son
+250 (5/2)
(6) Clickjab
+200 (2/1)

Post Time: 9:05 p.m. EST
Distance:6 Furlongs
Purse:$9,000

Race 6 runs for 6 furlongs on the dirt for a $9,000 purse. Clickjab and Chatterman have a good argument to go to the winner’s circle in this spot.

Clickjab is 14 for 48 in his career, and has finished 1st, 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 6th in his previous five outings.

He won back-to-back races on August 15 for a $7,900 race by a half length, and then on September 12 for a $8,300 prize by a length.

In his latest outing, Clickjab finished 6th on October 27 for a $10,300 purse. That was disappointing, so it’s back down in grade for $9,000.

Chatterman is 14 for 47 in his career, and finished 3rd, 5th, 1st in his previous three attempts. He beat Freedonia by 1 ¾ lengths for a $11,000 prize on November 8 after going 5th on September 21 in a $10,900 event.

Based on this grade and his current form, Chatterman should be the toughest horse in this field.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NYRA - AQUEDUCT
Picks by Steve Phillips

RACE 1
6 Ruthenian
7 My Brother Cam
3 Paratus


RACE 2
8 Two Cent Tootsie
7 Left Leaning Lucy
11 Kerik

RACE 3
3 Bustin Bay
9 No Deal
8 Flashing Red


RACE 4
1 Water's Edge
5 Scotto
4 Emperor's Cause

RACE 5
4 Pivotal Run
11 Mr. Connecticut
12 Umbria


RACE 6
6 Priotitize
7 Danny California
2 Lil Commissioner

RACE 7
3 Too Sexy
8 Raven's Cry
4 Piedi Bianchi


RACE 8
1 Chateau
5 Wendell Fong
7 Rough Entry

RACE 9
6 Waters Of Merom
10 Caironi
9 Mischievous Kiss

RACE 10
8 Freedomofthepress
5 Balinese
6 Genetic Gem

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Sunday, November 28
Posted by David Aragona

RACE 5: DREAMPOINT (#9)

Mr. Connecticut is clearly the horse to beat as he tries to improve on his runner-up finish at this level last time at Belmont. He got a good trip that day and was just second-best to Shutters, who got the jump on him coming off the far turn. That said, Mr. Connecticut was finishing best of all late and now is arguably landing in a softer spot despite the large field. He has to work out a trip from this outside post position, but he’s a deserving favorite in this spot. I prefer him to Umbria, who is drawn one slot wider in post 12. He had no answer behind Mr. Connecticut on turf two back, as he was unable to take advantage of a slow early pace in fading to third. He had previously run better in his prior start at Saratoga, and he did rebound on dirt last time. However, I’m more concerned about a wide journey for him given his more forward running style. They’re the two most likely winners based on form, but they figure to take all the money and there’s one rival who interests me at a far better price. Dreampoint has obviously had more chances than a few others in here, as he makes his 8th career turf start. However, he was really coming to hand when he was last seen over the summer. He just missed in a few maiden claiming races at Belmont before he was moved back up to this level on opening day at Saratoga. That July 15 race did not feature much early pace, and he did well to get up for fifth while closing from far back in upper stretch. That’s proven to be a live race, as the top three finishers have all come back to win, and many improved their speed figures and form in subsequent starts. Dreampoint was entered once more at Saratoga but got scratched on the track after getting washy in the lead-up and has been given plenty of time since then. He now returns in a favorable spot and should get somewhat overlooked given the layoff.

RACE 7: LOVE AND THUNDER (#2)

Too Sexy looked like a pretty ordinary sort earlier in the year, but she’s really come around over the past few months, having won 3 of her last 4 starts. Those last two victories arguably make her the horse to beat here. She got a good trip when she won that optional claimer two back but she backed it up last time in the Floral Park. There was a strong pace ahead of her which did fall apart, but she absolutely flew home to beat those horses while rallying down the center of the track. If she brings that Belmont form to Aqueduct she’s going to be a handful, but you’re not going to get much of a price on her this time. Among the favorites, I prefer Change of Control. This underrated mare rarely gets the respect that she deserves despite a resume of strong performances in stakes. With the exception of the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile, she hasn’t finished off the board in any of her starts against her own gender this year, winning a couple of graded stakes along the way. While she’s never won at this 6-furlong distance, she’s obviously effective going both shorter and longer. Michelle Lovell has picked her spots well this year and she’s found another race in which she makes a ton of sense; plus a little give in the ground would only help. My top pick is Love and Thunder. She took some money in the Grade 3 Noble Damsel last time but could never really land a blow in a race that was primarily dominated on the front end. Perhaps stretching back out to a mile wasn’t her preference, since she had run so well going shorter in her prior start. That victory two back came going 7 furlongs and now she’s turning back to three-quarters of a mile. Yet shorter may be better since she ran deceptively well in her lone prior start going 6 furlongs back in April when she outfinished Too Sexy in a paceless race.

RACE 9: VERGARA (#3)

Mischievous Kiss and Caironi finished just a half-length apart when completing the exacta in the Chelsey Flower earlier this month at Belmont. Mischievous Kiss probably ran the better race that day as she made the first move into a very fast pace and opened up in midstretch before Caironi cut down the margin late. Caironi closed from well back that day, but her early position was primarily due to some trouble at the start which placed her at the back of the pack. Now Caironi gets a rider switch to Irad Ortiz for this rematch with her main rival. They’re obviously strong contenders here, but I want some confirmation that Chelsey Flower was quite as strong as the speed figures indicate. All of the others have to run faster to beat these two favorites, but I think a few have upside. Anador is the one that many will consider as the biggest threat, but I thought she got a great trip when she won at Belmont last time. There was some give in the ground that day, which she appeared to relish as she traveled strongly into the race. She had trouble putting away a pesky longshot in the late stages, which concerns me a bit as she stretches out an extra sixteenth of a mile here. I’m instead interested in Vergara, who ships in from Fair Hill for Graham Motion. This filly wanted no part of sprinting in her debut at Laurel and improved quite a bit last time when stretched out to 1 1/8 miles. That’s a demanding distance for 2-year-olds, so I’m not so concerned about the slower speed figure for the race. She only won by 1 1/4 lengths, but the victory was more dominant than that margin would indicate. She’s bred to be a nice turf runner, and she picks up Luis Saez for her stakes debut.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Laurel Park picks and ponderings November 28, 2021
by John Piassek | Nov 28, 2021 | Breaking, Handicapping

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $2,319 Super High 5 — $614 Late Pick 5 — $0


ANALYSIS

RACE 1: MAIDEN CLAIMING $16,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

6-7-5-3

We’ll wrap up November with a 9-race card. The track got some snow overnight; we’ll see how that impacts the track today. #6 Heart of Secrets (5/1) is the only one in the race who has never competed on dirt. She’s making her debut on this surface after three rather middling efforts on grass. She’s run brisnet figures in the 60s twice on grass, and will be a contender if that form transfers over. At her likely odds, it might be worth a shot to believe it will. #7 La Aitana (8/1) showed speed while racing wide and faded on debut at Delaware Park. Adds lasix for the first time and will try to save more ground. #5 Special Freedom (1/1) has the figure edge over the others, having consistently run in the upper 60s and low 70s as of late. She’s burned a lot of money in her last two starts, and will take tons of action here. Treading lightly.

RACE 2: CLAIMING $10,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 FURLONGS

3-4-5-6

#3 Miz the Best (6/1) is the only one in the field who has never lost against winners, having broken her maiden last out despite a wide trip. Her figures have improved dramatically in all four of her starts, peaking at a 65 in her maiden win. #4 Hicktown (7/5) went off as the favorite against similar last out, but was outkicked in the stretch and lost a photo for second. Michael Merryman claimed her out of that race. She’ll try to recapture the form from her maiden win, where she won by a neck and earned a 74. #5 No More Mask (5/2) chased the pace last out and got blown away by Cabra Chica, ending up second. She stopped badly late going seven furlongs, with not much kick at the end. Cutting back to six furlongs should help.

RACE 3: CLAIMING $16,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

1-5-7-4
#1 One Two Kid (9/2) raced wide throughout at Parx last out against better and stopped badly. Drops in class here; he was competitive against these types earlier in the year. #5 Luxero (5/1) has run at least a 77 in four of his last five races and goes third off a brief break for Claudio Gonzalez. Appprentice Jean Alvelo has started to catch fire lately, with wins on four of the last five race days. #7 Inspector Frost (9/5) races second off the claim for Kieron Magee and has lots of early speed. Two races back, he got caught wide around the first turn, but managed to get to the lead and won going away. Might have a similar trip here.

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: MAIDEN CLAIMING $10,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 1/2 FURLONGS

6-4-2-8
#6 Bullets Lady (6/1) made her last start on dirt at Timonium, and she recovered nicely from a bad start to lose by just 2 1/2 lengths. She was a strong-closing second last out on grass despite some traffic trouble. #4 Icy Harbor (2/1) improved fifteen points from her first dirt start last out, showing speed and hanging on for third going 1 1/16 miles. This distance should be more in her wheelhouse. #2 Tipsy Tourist (4/1) made a solid bid for the lead last out, but flattened out and ended up third. She still ran a career-high mark of 65, a seven-point improvement from any of her prior races. She’ll be close to the lead.

RACE 5- STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $25,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

1A-8-6-5
#1A One Nation (3/1) is, in my estimation, the better half of the Jamie Ness-trained coupled entry here. He cut back to seven furlongs last out and didn’t show a lot. However, he was very impressive in victory three races back, and was second, with a figure of 96, behind Why Why Paul Why, who has blossomed into a top allowance-class runner at Parx. #8 Twitty City (9/2) won two consecutive photos in his last two races at Delaware, and has run exactly an 85 in his last three starts. He doesn’t have much early speed, so if he wins, it’ll be in desperate style. #6 Yes Sir Colonel (9/2) ships from Penn National, as does his jockey, Vladimir Diaz. He was hung wide in his last few starts against better at that track. He steadily ran figures in the 80s there; those marks make him a contender here.

RACE 6- MAIDEN CLAIMING $10,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 1 MILE

2-8-6-9
#2 Notion to Tapit (8/5) chased a loose leader, Dontcrossfuzzy, last out. While he was no match for the runaway winner, he closed well and held on for third. This is the lowest level he’s raced on. #8 I’m Not Slow (8/1) has competitive figures for Alvelo and Claudio Gonzalez but has tended to fade in the stretch in his last few races. He’ll try to hang on and get a piece of the exotics at a decent number. #6 Chalk Hill (8/1) is a filly trying the boys. She’s steadily run in the 50s and will try to save more ground than usual.

ANALYSIS

RACE 7– STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $25,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

6-2-7-3
#6 Alpha Chi Ro (8/5) hasn’t run worse than an 85 since returning from a long layoff in mid-August. He ran a big race last out, battling early with next-out winner Algebraic and disposing of him. He did his best to hold off Semper Fi, who sat a perfect trip, but couldn’t quite do it. Should have an easier time on the lead here. #2 Jackie A (5/2) got up off a great trip to win at this level last out with a much-improved figure of 89. He’ll be in a prime spot to take advantage if Alpha Chi Ro is softened up again. #7 Magic Man (6/1) exits the same race as Alpha Chi Ro. He has some traffic trouble and was shuffled out of contention, but was close in all of his other recent races.

RACE 8 — ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W1X), 2-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS

3-2-6-4
#3 Rominski (7/2) was pressed on the lead throughout on debut, but held on to win by two lengths with a sharp figure of 82. Runner-up Royal Spy came back to break his maiden on Friday. #2 Al Loves Josie (8/1) ran a similar race on debut, and races for the Jerry Robb/Xaiver Perez duo, which has been very hot lately. Expect him to challenge for the lead and try to prevent Rominski from getting to the rail. #6 Kenner (5/2) shipped up to Belmont Park to break his maiden last out for Jamie Ness. He’s not a need-the-lead type, and will likely rate off the pace and hope for a meltdown.

RACE 9 — MAIDEN CLAIMING $10,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 1/2 FURLONGS
4-3-8-5
#4 Bellswillberinging (8/5) cuts back around one turn. Her best races have come at seven furlongs or shorter, including a 70 earned when second at seven furlongs last out. Looks like a perfect storm of circumstances here. #3 Candy Corner (3/1) closed for second in both her starts at this level, and has the best late pace figures in the field. #8 C Two (6/1) has run a lifetime top in two of her last three races and keeps Horacio Karamanos in the saddle.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Michael Lombardi

Rams -1.5
Minnesota +3
Steelers +3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

Camarero - Race 1	Exacta / Daily Double 1-2
Claiming $14,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 67 • Purse: $7,500 • Post: 2:45P
FOR FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $14,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. COLONY DREAMER is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * COLONY DREAMER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Eq uibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. DADDY'S WARRIOR: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Fi gure at the distance/surface.
1	COLONY DREAMER	8/5	5/2
5	DADDY'S WARRIOR	5/2	3/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	STARDUST RAIN	4	20/1	Front-runner	0	0	79.8	18.7	10.7
5	DADDY'S WARRIOR	5	5/2	Front-runner	61	61	77.6	41.6	37.6
1	COLONY DREAMER	1	8/5	Alternator/Stalker	53	56	50.0	49.0	45.0
3	SHINE N JAM	3	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	58.2	27.6	21.1
2	NEFERET DIAMOND	2	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	55	43	32.4	38.3	31.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ADAM CHERNOFF

NY JETS +3
NY GIANTS +3
TAMPA/INDY -OVER TOTAL 52
CINCINNATI -4
LA RAMS +1
WASHINGTON -1

props

* Darrell Henderson o61.5 rush yards
* Kenny Golladay o49.5 rec yds
o3.5 receptions (-30)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Carolina/Miami Over 41½ Points

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 28, 2021
11/28 10:00 AM PT / 1:00 PM ET

NFL (255) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS (256) NEW YORK GIANTS

Take: (255) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR SUNDAY:ATL/JAX UNDERthe total of 45½

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals4U

Early Sunday's Free Selection: Carolina Panthers/Miami Dolphins under 41 1/2