Friday 12/3/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Frank Carulli: Stronach 5 Analysis: Friday, November 19, 2021

December 3, 2021 | By Frank Carulli

STRONACH 5 ANALYSIS
Friday, December 3, 2021

LEG A (Gulfstream Park, 8th race, 3:28 EST): STUNNING PRINCESS broke her maiden off a four-month layoff in March in a one mile grass race that has come up strong. She out-dueled stakes placed Nevisian Sunrise (4/1-2-1, $86k) and Caramel Swirl (9/3-3-1, $317k), winner of the Grade II Raven Run Stakes on the Keeneland turf recently, for a neck victory. She returns off a lengthier rest today and is today's solo play for a 31-percent barn with runners laid off more than 90 days.

LEG B (Laurel Park, 8th race, 3:53 EST): BOLD CONFECTION arrives from Parx in top form for trainer John Servis. She was geared down in a 6F MSW victory, then returned six weeks later to run away from Billieanne (8/2-2-2, $113k), a next-out allowance winner at one mile. JUDI BLUE EYES, first or second in 10 of 19 starts on the main track, was out-kicked off a perfect stalking trip last out and offers no value, so use her stablemate, MISTY TASTE, instead on the ticket. She exchanged bumps between rivals into the clubhouse turn and finished okay for third in a longer turf-to-dirt route.

LEG C (Golden Gate, 2nd race, 4:18 EST): SHE'S SO PRETTY and CONVINCE hail from the leading barn, have combined for 14 wins and $262k in earnings and should get an ideal pace to rally into in this 'non-winners in six months' condition.

LEG D (Laurel Park, 9th race, 4:24 EST): Going 4-deep in this crowded maiden claiming sprint. ZEALACIOUS debuts for Gonzalez and is by leading 2021, second-crop sire Exaggerator. CROSSTOWN GIRL worked a pair of bullets at Fair Hill for Trombetta and likely will draw alot of action. KYMMIE'S CHARDONNAY appears best of those that have run, but she burned money in all three starts and blew a clear lead with blinkers on at this level last out. MISS SEDUCTIVE'S dam, Coquettish, won the Maryland Juvenile Fillies championship.

LEG E (Gulfstream Park, 10th race, 4:32 EST): RED DANGER is a stakes winner, Grade II placed on the turf and a deserving favorite. But he's not the only 2-year-old in this crowded field with good recent form. ELDON'S PRINCE romped to a stakes victory on the Gulfstream lawn at this distance. DUKE OF LOVE caught the eye in a debut victory sprinting at Woodbine. BIZ BIZ BUZZ is Grade III-placed sprinting on the grass. And the list goes on to include six runners in the final leg of the Stronach 5.

Stronach 5 Ticket
Leg A: 3
Leg B: 8, 10
Leg C: 2, 4
Leg D: 1, 2, 3, 7
Leg E: 1, 2, 5, 7, 9, 12

Cost for a $1 ticket: $96

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AI Picks: Gulfstream Stakes Picks | Friday, Dec. 3, 2021

December 2, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Friday’s opening day card at Gulfstream Park for the Championship Meet includes a pair of stakes co-features. To assist your handicapping, key stakes selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.

You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app. We’ve included the official track morning line odds with each runner.

Gulfstream Park // Race 6 // 2:28 pm ET // $75,000 Wait A While Stakes // 1 mile (turf)

#3 Last Leaf (12-1) // 28%W
#8 Lia Marina (7-2) // 21%W
#1 Gun Boat (4-1) // 10%W
#4 Lemieux (5-2) // 10%W

//

Gulfstream Park // Race 10 // 4:32 pm ET // $75,000 Pulpit Stakes // 1 mile (turf)

#3 C My Meister (8-1) // 29%W
#2 Eldon’s Prince (6-1) // 16%W
#12 Speaking Scout (10-1) // 13%W
#5 Red Danger (5-2) // 10%W

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What You Need to Know - Gulfstream Park

December 3, 2021

Jeff Siegel’s “What Your Need to Know”
Gulfstream Park – December 3, 2021

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FIFTH RACE – Here’s a second-level allowance/optional claiming turf sprint that showcases the California invader Tilted Towers, a second-off-the-claim play for M. Maker exiting a stronger race at a similar level at Del Mar last month. A relatively lightly-raced five-year-old gelding (just 12 starts), the son of Atreides broke a step slow and lost his chance to keep pace early with the extremely quick course specialist Mikes Tiznow but stayed on well to finish a respectable fourth in a race that produced a solid speed figure. With a better break today, he could be on the lead, though he’s shown in the past the ability to successfully stalk and pounce when the situation requires it. Also worth noting is his recent main track drill since arriving at Gulfstream Park – a bullet half mile in :47 flat breezing, fastest of 150 for the distance – that should have him on edge.

Worth considering in the various exotics is The Virginian, not quite as fast on numbers as our top selection but dangerous nonetheless over a course (first or second in five of 10 starts) that he clearly appreciates. The S. Klesaris-trained gelding likely will be doing his best work from off the pace but with some help up front could be heard from in the closing stages. As for Shekky Shebaz, he’s been a beaten choice in four of his last five starts and clearly isn’t one to trust. A Claiming Crown winner over this course in distance two years ago, the Capo Blanco gelding vans down from New York showing a brief and sketchy work tab, so we’ll take a stand against him and if he beats us, he beats us.

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SIXTH RACE – The Wait A While Stakes is a turf miler for juvenile fillies and appears fairly competitive with several possibilities. Sister Lou Ann gets the worst of the draw (nine of nine) but may be a filly of some quality. Second sprinting on dirt in her debut after blowing the start and then getting tagged close home, she stretched out successfully over the Tapeta surface when relaxing beautifully on the lead and then kicking home with authority when given her cue at the head of the lane. By Frosted from a Kitten’s Joy mare, she’s clearly bred to improve with distance and maturity, and while a change in style will be required considering her poor draw and the projected race flow, the S. Joseph, Jr.-trained filly strikes us as a versatile type that should be able to rally from anywhere. She’s already won on dirt and synthetic and should love turf, too, owning to the bottom side of her pedigree. For a video analysis of her chances, Click Here

Lia Marina was a visually pleasing third in a strong maiden turf sprint at Saratoga in her debut in August and then was predictably hit hard on the tote when knocked down 4/5 in her most recent start last month at Belmont Park. The C. Clement-trained filly delivered but was hard pressed to do so, actually earning a lower speed figure in victory than she did when finishing third (beaten almost four lengths) in her first outing. Despite here pedigree (Uncle Mo x Giant’s Causeway) she’s a short-striding type and therefore not a slam dunk to improve over a distance of ground, though she’s likely to settle somewhere in mid-pack behind a projected quicker-than-par early pace and then have every chance to pick up the pieces close home.

English invader Sunstrike has been facing infinitely tougher foes in her most recent four starts – all legitimate stakes races – and while she’s failed to land a blow since winning an all-weather maiden sprint last June, the daughter of Dark Angel should fit very nicely on this circuit at this level. The B. Walsh-trained filly looked decent in a team drill around dogs at Palm Meadows Nov. 28, and as the most experienced filly in the field must be given serious consideration.

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TENTH RACE – Here’s a good place to take a shot. The Pulpit Stakes is a one mile turf event for juvenile colts, and much of the action – and deservedly so – will go to Red Danger, already a grass stakes winner (at Kentucky Downs) and most recently a respectable runner-up on dirt in the Street Sense S. at Churchill Downs in late October. His numbers have been steadily rising, he’s back on what probably is his preferred surface, and he had a nice recent breeze at Palm Meadows since shipping to South Florida. It all adds up to his favorite’s role, but a decent colt can beat him and we’re wondering if there’s one in here that offers a better price.

Perhaps Always Gambling fits the bill. Listed at 12-1 on the morning line, the son or Tamarkuz from a mare by Exchange Rate has the pedigree to run long on the lawn, and with two very good outings over the local Tapeta surface he’s half-way there to success on grass. With the always-popular two-sprints-and-a-route pattern for a barn that has solid stats with this angle, he has the expectation that that he’ll move forward under these conditions and already is competitive based on his one-turn speed figures. Likely to settle off the pace and do his best work form the top of the lane to the wire, the J. Avila-trained sophomore will have his chances increase if the early pace is quick and competitive.

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fair Grounds - Race #4
Picks Notes
#8 Afternoon Anejo He gets Lasix after showing nothing in the debut going long on the Keeneland turf, but he's bred to be better than what he showed that day, and a much improved effort here wouldn't surprise.
#4 Mr. Cunningham He races as a gelding for the first time after catching a couple of runaway winners at Delaware to open his career. Not 100% sold on him here, and he's likely to take some cash.
#3 Matthewsthirtyfour Blinkers go on here after what might be a useful Indiana Grand debut try, but I worry he's overbet for a top team even while appearing to be a capable player in here.
Race Summary Afternoon Anejo is bred to be pretty solid around two turns on the turf, but he didn't lift a foot in the debut try. That came over yielding ground, so maybe some firmer footing would benefit him with that race under his belt?

Fair Grounds - Race #6
Picks Notes
#5 Maga Man His form has been all over the place, but most of his poor recent efforts have come in stakes company, and he's a much better fit in this spot. Slight worry about the race shape, so I wouldn't want anything shorter than something like the 4/1 ML price.
#7 Payday Too Finisher goes off the Faucheux claim, and that gives him some room to move forward while returning at the same level. The race flow might flatter his ability to settle and finish.
#4 Swot Analysis Think he's going to get bet a bit here while trying the lawn for the first time, but he was competitive with the local company as a 2yo and now drops out of Grade III stakes company at Woodbine. He can be tough here.
Race Summary Maga Man gets the edge here, as he has been in with much better groups than he is going to find here. I'll try to keep him in the frame late with the other pair.

Fair Grounds - Race #8
Picks Notes
#5 Hana Road She'll have to fire off the layoff after turning in a pretty decent effort here back in January, and this jockey/trainer combo has done some pretty serious work when teaming up lately.
#6 Lady Brielle She made a little move into a decent pace before flattening in her debut try, and she can probably build on that effort for a capable team. Chance at a mid-range price.
#8 Cajun Kid Her only turf route wasn't bad, and she surely has some upside after the no-show effort on the main track last out. Think she'll land a decent spying trip today.
Race Summary Hana Road should be a handful with this group, as her debut stacks up nicely, and this team knows how to get them ready off the bench. Slight chance Lady Brielle gets overlooked as an Exacta partner?

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#1 WHEELING IN CASH Stretch traffic proved costly, moves outside in, strong play.
#4 CASH HUDSON Pulled pocket on turn, wore down fave, got caught late.
#8 A WORLDLY GOODTIMES Drops, should get pace to run at, use in gimmicks.
Race Summary Wheeling in Cash blasted off the gate from post 10 and got to the rail early, only to lose pocket position when the favorite brushed the the lead. He held his ground and was blocked in the stretch when trying to launch a winning run. Bet on him to win and place with rail position tonight.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#4 CENTURY GIGALO Hard used in action-packed half to get lead, faded into stretch headwind as the fave.
#3 JUSTA BANDIT Hit board in 16 of 29 starts this year, mostly at this level.
#5 ROCK AND TWIST Late runner has seven wins and can top $50k in 2021 earnings.
Race Summary Century Gigalo made an early backside move to the lead, held well until the top of the stretch, but gave way to the deep closers. He is reunited with McNair and could make amends at a better price in his second recent start at this level. Play 4-3 and 4-5 exactas.

Hoosier Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#1 MEADOWBROOK RAIDER Got past fave, passed late in return, goes well from the rail.
#2 ROLL WITH ME Invader makes first start for top connections and draws better post.
#7 NO QUARTER Pocketed early, full of run late, second best.
Race Summary Meadowbrook Raider, an anxious third behind the favorites, broke the single-file alignment near the far turn, wore down the odds-on pace setter but couldn't hold off the closers. He draws the rail for his second start off a two-month freshening. Bet on him to win and place.

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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Oaklawn Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#4 Wild Behavior Had no answer for monster move by Fairway Magic last time but has the speed to get to the lead and control this one.
#2 Yodel E.A. Who Has 4-5 and outrun in his latest at Delta; tough campaign can has won two of his last four on mile ovals.
#3 Awesome Saturday Was along for third at Keeneland last out and was claimed by Diodoro; off nearly two months.
Race Summary Wild Behavior comes out of strong races and can take early command on these; should be very difficult to catch.

Oaklawn Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#10 Higher Standard Rolled to victory going short in the mud at Churchill and looked like a special kind of sprinter in doing so; breezed a :58 1-5 five-eighths bullet for this and could take command from the outside.
#9 Cairama Broke his maiden at Belmont and followed with a fifth in the G3 Nashua; can probably be in the mix from the beginning.
#6 B Sudd Worked hard to the very end of his last one, which marked his maiden win at Churchill Downs; gameness will come in handy in this big step up.
Race Summary Higher Standard was impressive as he put away early challenges and drew off at Churchill; Amoss charge could be the real deal.

Oaklawn Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#4 Bling Machine Will dismissed by many because she's only raced at Arapahoe, but she was so dominant in two races that it has to get your attention. Hasn't run since July 2020 but has trained at Churchill and has had some eye-opening works. Should be taken seriously.
#8 Palm Cottage Faded going longer last time and can be in the mix from the word go; can improve with the chance of venue.
#3 Code Name Kate Held second in an allowance at Churchill and can be a factor from the start.
Race Summary Bling Machine is extremely rapid and not been challenged; clearly she takes a big step up in class.

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Tampa Bay Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - SO - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $19000 Class Rating: 94

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS IN 2020 - 2021 OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $12,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 3 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 HIGH FIVE COTTON 7/2
# 7 NOTACATBUTACARD 12/1
# 3 PROFESSIONAL 8/1

HIGH FIVE COTTON looks to be a formidable contender. This gelding looks strong for this event since Delgado has a solid win percent with horses going this distance. Looks competitive for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid figs in dirt sprint races lately. PROFESSIONAL - Is tough not to look at given the company run in lately. Overall, has one of the top earnings per start in dirt sprint events in this lot.

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Lone Star Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Claiming - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $9860 Class Rating: 75

QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 LUST FOR LIFE 4/1
# 1 VF FIRST PRIZE CHICK 8/5
# 6 VODOO CARTEL 20/1

LUST FOR LIFE appears to be the bet in here. Could best this group here, showing quite good figures of late. Should definitely be given a chance in here if only for the competitive speed fig garnered in the last outing. Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group recently. VF FIRST PRIZE CHICK - Could beat this field given the 79 Equibase Speed Figure put up in her last outing. VODOO CARTEL - Solid gains have been scored by bettors using this jock and handler twosome lately. Looks quite good to be on or close to the lead at the first call.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Stronach 5 - Race #2 - Post: 3:53pm - Optional Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $52,000 Class Rating: 93

Rating:

#2 ADELAIDE MISS (ML=8/1)
#1 JUDI BLUE EYES (ML=7/2)
#8 MISTY TASTE (ML=6/1)
#6 FOLLY (ML=10/1)


ADELAIDE MISS - This thoroughbred likes to win at different racing venues. The switch in venue today may be a wake up call. Toledo should have her moving solid on the turn. This filly garnered a nice speed rating of 90 in her last race. That speed figure should be lofty enough to prove victorious this time out. Another way to identify class is earnings per start (EPS). This horse has the highest in the field. I think she'll be close at the finish. Russell is giving this one Lasix for the first time. Nice. JUDI BLUE EYES - This mare is in first-rate condition right now. Finished second last time around the track and comes back rapidly. Just check out her most recent speed fig, 90. That one fits in this bunch. MISTY TASTE - This filly is very reliable, frequently finishing in the money. This thoroughbred could be tough today, especially since Marquez rode in the last race and now should be familiar with this one. Don't often see a lucrative return on investment like +37. This jockey/trainer pair has done well together over the last twelve months. FOLLY - This mare is in fine physical condition, having run a good race on Nov 5th, finishing first. Changes tracks from last out at Churchill Downs to here. Multiple wins at different tracks tell me this thoroughbred likes to switch it up, so that's a good sign.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 BOLD CONFECTION (ML=2/1),

BOLD CONFECTION - Condition is somewhat in question after the addition of front bandages in the October 26th event. Finished first in her most recent effort with a most unsatisfactory fig. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this bunch.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #2 ADELAIDE MISS on the nose if you can get odds of 5/1 or more

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Tommy King Wins	NCAA Basketball	IONA GAELS ‑12	2	1	+90
Pure Lock	NBA	LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS ‑1.5	1	1	-10
R and R Totals	NBA	LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS/LOS ANGELES LAKERS o214.5	2	2	-20
Insider Sports Report		No pick yet	0	1	-110
Joe Wiz	NCAA Basketball	RIDER BRONCS +13	1	2	-120
5thstreetpicks	NBA	LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS +125	1	3	-260
Hottie4Sports	NCAA Basketball	NEW MEXICO STATE AGGIES u137.5	1	3	-280

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1.	National Sports Service	NBA	Cleveland +3.5	2-1 (+90)	6-1 (+490)
2.	Doc's Picks	CFB	UTSA under 73	2-2 (-20)	3-0 (+300)
3.	Insider Sports Report	NBA	Philadelphia +2.5	3-1 (+190)	3-2 (+80)
4.	Elite Sports Picks	CBB	Portland -5	3-1 (+190)	4-3 (+70)
5.	The Spot Player	CBB	S. Florida -14.5	1-0 (+100)	2-3 (-130)
6.	Profit On Sports	CFB	Utah under 58	2-2 (-20)	3-4 (-140)
7.	Primetime Sports Picks	CBB	Monmouth -2	1-3 (-230)	3-4 (-140)
8.	The Sports Consensus	NBA	Warriors over 216.5	1-2 (-120)	3-4 (-140)
9.	Top Rank Sports Picks	NBA	Suns +7	3-1 (+190)	2-5 (-350)

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Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks	Place A Bet
1.	NSA(The Legend)	NBA – Warriors -7	Line @ Bovada
2.	Gameday Network	NBA – Wizards over 208.5	Line @ Bovada
3.	Sports Action 365	CBB – Furman -6.5	Line @ BetAnySports
4.	Vegas Line Crushers	CBB – Notre Dame -4	Line @ GT Bets
5.	VegasSI.com	CBB – Canisius under 142.5	Line @ Bovada
6.	PointSpreadReport.com(SAM CASEY)	CBB – Quinnipiac +3	Line @ BetAnySports
7.	Winning Big Sports	NBA – Hawks -1.5	Line @ MyBookie
8.	NSA(Gerry “Big Cat” Andino)	CBB – UL – Lafayette -10	Line @ Bovada
9.	Lou Panelli	CBB – Cornell -8.5	Line @ BetAnySports
10.	VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club	CBB – Pepperdine over 137.5	Line @ GT Bets
11.	William E. Stockton	CBB – San Jose St over 136	Line @ MyBookie
12.	Vincent Pioli	CBB – Texas El Paso -1	Line @ Bovada
13.	Steve “Scoop” Kendall	NBA – Hawks over 213.5	Line @ Bovada
14.	SCORE	NBA – Wizards -4	Line @ GT Bets
15.	Tony Campone	NBA – Warriors -7	Line @ BetAnySports
16.	Chicago Sports Group	CBB – Quinnipiac +3	Line @ Bovada
17.	Hollywood Sportsline	CBB – Monmouth -2	Line @ Bovada
18.	VIP Action	CBB – Rutgers +7.5	Line @ GT Bets
19.	South Beach Sports	NBA – Hawks -1.5	Line @ Bovada
20.	Las Vegas Sports Commission	NBA – Wizards -4	Line @ Bovada
21.	NY Players Club	NBA – Warriors -7	Line @ BetAnySports
22.	Fred Callahan	CBB – Siena -2.5	Line @ Bovada
23.	Las Vegas Private CEO Club	CBB – Cornell -8.5	Line @ MyBookie
24.	Michigan Sports	CBB – Iowa +11.5	Line @ GT Bets
25.	National Consensus Report	CBB – Tulsa over 131	Line @ Bovada

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rocky Atkinson

Dec 03 '21, 7:40 PM in 39m
NBA | 76ers vs Hawks
Play on: 76ers +1½ -105 at pinnacle

Rocketman is now 90-59 60% last 149 FREE plays!
Rocketman Premium plays now 69% CBB this year, 68% NBA this year, 63% NHL this year, 59% CFB and 67% NFL this year! Grab a long term package today or join me for my daily picks!
Rocketman Sports FREE NBA play Friday 12-3-21
Philadelphia @ Atlanta (7:40 PM EST)
Play On: Philadelphia +1 1/2
The Philadelphia 76ers travel to Atlanta to take on the Hawks on Friday night. Philadelphia is 11-11 SU overall this year while Atlanta comes in with a 12-10 SU overall record on the season. Philadelphia is 3-1-1 ATS last 5 games as an underdog. Philadelphia is 3-1-1 ATS last 5 road games. The Sixers come in at full strength while Atlanta still has a couple key injuries. My Rocketman line says Philadelphia outright by 7 points! We'll recommend a small play on Philadelphia tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

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Dustin Hawkins

Dec 03 '21, 8:00 PM in 59m
NCAA-B | New Mexico State vs UTEP
Play on: UTEP +1½ -110 at BetVegas

1 Dimer on UTEP +1½ -110

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Frank Sawyer

Dec 03 '21, 8:00 PM in 59m
NCAA-F | Oregon vs Utah
Play on: OVER 57 -110

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR FRIDAY, 12/3:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut on Friday was with Over the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks and the Utah Utes. Oregon (10-2) comes off a 38-29 win against Oregon State as a 7.5-point favorite. The Ducks have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Oregon has also played 7 of their last 9 meetings with the Utes Over the Total. Utah (9-3) comes off a 28-13 win against Colorado as a 24-point favorite. The Utes have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. Utah has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Take the Over. Best of luck — Frank.