Tuesday 12/7/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-07-2021, 10:34 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise

Turf Paradise - Race 7	$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 7-8)
Claiming $3,500 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 69 • Purse: $10,660 • Post: 3:43P
(INCLUDES UP TO 30% AZHR (ARIZONA HORSE RACING) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * SHORT CUT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster P ower Rating. HELLO HANDSOME: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CALIFORNIA TENGA: Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. THIRTYMINUTEMASS: Horse rank s in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
1	SHORT CUT	6/1	4/1
7	HELLO HANDSOME	5/1	6/1
5	CALIFORNIA TENGA	12/1	7/1
3	THIRTYMINUTEMASS	7/2	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	ABOVE THE LAW	8	12/1	Front-runner	68	67	69.8	39.8	19.8
2	LIMITED OFFER	2	4/1	Front-runner	65	64	56.4	54.8	44.3
6	ROUGE SUNSET	6	20/1	Front-runner	56	65	44.8	46.6	30.1
3	THIRTYMINUTEMASS	3	7/2	Alternator/Front-runner	71	61	77.8	54.2	49.2
5	CALIFORNIA TENGA	5	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	69	72	92.9	52.1	42.6
7	HELLO HANDSOME	7	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	70	69	66.3	58.6	50.6
1	SHORT CUT	1	6/1	Trailer	69	63	39.3	62.5	57.5
11	TRACK BOUND	11	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	66	63	64.4	53.6	37.1
10	KEEN JAMES	10	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	52	39.6	47.6	33.1
4	LAZARUS COME FORTH	4	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	69	60	21.8	53.4	42.9
9	AGUA DORADO	9	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	66	20.0	54.0	40.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-07-2021, 10:36 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Parx Racing - Race #3 - Post: 1:04pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 96

Rating:

#6 BIG BEAUTIFUL WALL (ML=6/1)

BIG BEAUTIFUL WALL - Trainer Ness gave this gelding a good stiff blow out. Last one was 2nd fastest of the day. This gelding has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Ness. Better be wary of this angle.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 HOLIDAY BONUS (ML=2/1), #7 MR THRIFTY (ML=7/2), #4 MY AMANJENA (ML=9/2),

HOLIDAY BONUS - Can't play this morning-line favorite off the long layoff. This horse doesn't have a winner's disposition. Often finishes near the winner. MR THRIFTY - I'd like to see more preferred recent efforts with oddsmaker's morning line of 7/2. Finished fourth in his most recent race with a substandard speed rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this field. MY AMANJENA - This gelding is always close, but just doesn't win. Difficult to play him on the front end. This pony will probably bounce off of the last strong outing.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #6 BIG BEAUTIFUL WALL on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-07-2021, 10:37 AM

Mahoning Valley (1st) Elgar, 7-2
(3rd) McGraw, 6-1

Mountaineer (1st) Flowzano, 6-1
(6th) Juba’s Lady, 10-1

Parx Racing (2nd) Sugar Streak, 9-2
(7th) I’m the Talent, 7-2

Penn National (3rd) Sunshine Tommy, 3-1
(8th) Screen Star, 3-1

Remington Park (5th) Muni Muni Slew, 9-2
(6th) Misty’s Fool, 5-1

Turf Paradise (4th) Walk On Water, 6-1
(5th) Passed by Paul, 6-1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-07-2021, 10:37 AM

Monday Myths: Betting Early Speed on the Distance Cut-Back

December 6, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Early speed horses are successful when shortening distances.

Background:

Horseplayers who see a lot of 1s in the past performance lines in the early part of the race often are attracted to horses who are attempting to run a shorter distance this time. The speed theoretically can carry without the need for as much distance stamina.

Data Points:

I looked at all races in 2021 through December 5 and analyzed horses who had made the lead in their most recent start and were running a shorter distance in the return bid. The comparison was for horses at sprint distances at 5-1/2, 6, 6-1/2 and 7 furlongs.

//

Horses who made the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 5-1/2 furlongs this time won 17.3% with a $0.74 ROI.
Horses who did not make the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 5-1/2 furlongs this time won 13.1% with a $0.71 ROI.

//

Horses who made the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 6 furlongs this time won 15.3% with a $0.75 ROI.
Horses who did not make the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 6 furlongs this time won 12.8% with a $0.76 ROI.

//

Horses who made the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 6-1/2 furlongs this time won 16.2% with a $0.82 ROI.
Horses who did not make the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 6-1/2 furlongs this time won 12.1% with a $0.71 ROI.

//

Horses who made the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 7 furlongs this time won 13.3% with a $0.66 ROI.
Horses who did not make the lead last time and shortened their distance to run 7 furlongs this time won 13.0% with a $0.76 ROI.

//

Overall Findings:

At each of the common sprint distances, horses who made the lead last time out were more likely to win when shortening their distance than those shortening distance after not making the lead. The spread is greatest at 5-1/2 furlongs, where last-out leaders won 4.2% more often than those trimming the trip exiting races when they didn’t make the lead. That margin closed closest at 7 furlongs, where last-out front-runners barely held a .3% edge when on the cut-back.

Bottom line:

When you look at a 12.4% win rate for all horses in races at 7 furlongs or less, you see that horses who made the lead last time and cut back in distance win at a higher rate at each of these distances than the general likelihood of winners. They also win at a stronger rate than fellow cut-back distance runners who weren’t capable of making the front last time. Overall, you’d have to surmise by these numbers that it’s a solid angle that holds water.
You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, decipher which tracks are most likely to excel with these kind of cut-back speed horses.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-07-2021, 10:37 AM

AI Picks: PA Nursery at Parx | Tuesday, Dec. 7, 2021

December 6, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Tuesday stakes action features the juveniles at Parx in the $200,000 Pennsylvania Nursery. To assist your handicapping, key stakes selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.

You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app. We’ve included the official track morning line odds with each runner.

Parx Racing // Race 9 // 3:50 pm ET // $200,000 Pennsylvania Nursery // 7 furlongs

#5 Disco Ebo (9-5) // 30%W
#9 Vine Jet (8-1) // 15%W
#4 Uncle Buddy (3-1) // 11%W
#6 Witty (6-1) // 9%W
#2 Dr. Steve (5-1) // 9%W
#1 Dance Code (6-1) // 7%W
#3 Wispering Springs (6-1) // 6%W
#8 Champion By Design (8-1) // 5%W
#10 Allevare (9-2) // 4%W
#7 Center Mid Maddie (8-1) // 4%W

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-07-2021, 10:38 AM

Best Horse Racing Bets for Tuesday, December 7, 2021
By J.W. Paine in Horse Racing

I’m not sure I’ve seen a better day for underdogs and sleepers than this Tuesday at Mahoning Valley Race Course, Parx Racing, and Remington Park.

All three tracks had at least one sleeper to tout, with Parx leading the parade with two (count ‘em, two!) sleepers to improve both our dispositions and our bankrolls.

Remember to check out the full race cards for all three tracks at our best horseracing wagering sites.

Good luck!
Tuesday’s Picks for Mahoning Valley Race Course

We’ll start on the main track with race five, a six-furlong allowance race for Ohio-bred fillies and mares three years old and upward. My money’s on the 8/1 sleeper, Hampton Dancer, ridden by Agustin Bracho.

There are three entries in this race at 8/1, but only one of those has won both of her career starts. For comparison, the 7/2 favorite, Shez Shacked Up, moneyed 15 of her 23 starts, winning two.

Longtime racing veteran Susan L. Anderson trains Hampton Dancer for owner-breeder Douglas Jacobson. Anderson has chosen Bracho to saddle Hampton Dancer for both of her career victories.

Race six is a six-furlong run for Ohio-bred fillies and mares three years old and upward. I’m going to agree with the morning line here and bet on the 4/5 favorite, Star Rules, with Jeffrey Sanchez in the irons.
This four-year-old filly finished eight of her 13 career starts in the money, winning two. She also finished second in both the Miss Southern Ohio Stakes at Belterra Park in September and the Ohio Debutante Handicap at Mahoning Valley last month.

James H. McDonald trains Star Rules for owner-breeder Doris Tummillo.

Race seven is a six-furlong allowance optional claiming run on the main track for Ohio-bred three-year-olds and upward. I like the second-favored (at 5/2) Classic Mo, with veteran jockey Erik Barbaran aboard.

This seven-year-old gelding takes the statistical spotlight in this nine-horse field with 28 money finishes in 48 career starts, 16 of those wins.

Jeffrey Skerrett trains Classic Mo for owner Danielle Agnello.
My Tuesday Picks for Parx Racing

Let’s begin at Parx with race two, a one mile and 70 yards claiming run on the main track for fillies and mares three years old and upward.

I’m betting my two dollars on the 6/1 sleeper, Grace’s Drama, piloted by jockey Luis M. Ocasio.

This seven-year-old mare’s record speaks for itself – 36 money finishes in 56 career starts, 12 of those wins. While the M/L favorite in this race has similar overall stats, Grace’s Drama has a slight statistical edge with her performance in 2021—eight money finishes in 13 starts, two of them wins.

Newcomer Jose M. Santaella-Calderon trains Grace’s Drama for owners Cirexis Stable and Santaella Stable.

Race eight is a one mile and 70 yards allowance run on the main track for three-year-olds and upward. I’m agreeing with the morning-line on this one. Bet on the 9/5 favorite, I Am Redeemed, ridden by Abner Adorno.
This three-year-old colt finished in the money five of his seven career starts, winning three, including the Storm Cat Stakes (Black Type) at Parx in August. In this nine-horse field, that makes him a star.

Penny Pearce, who’s having the best year of her career, trains I Am Redeemed for owner Larry Rebbecchi. Pearce has put Adorno in the irons for I Am Redeemed’s last five races.

Race nine is the Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes, a $200,000 purse, seven-furlong run on the main track for Pennsylvania-bred two-year-olds. I see an upset here, with the win going to the 6/1 underdog, Dance Code, with veteran jockey Nik Juarez aboard.

I agree that the current three-win streak of the 9/5 favorite—Disco Ebo—is formidable, but the uncertainty of who will ride Disco Ebo in this race gives me pause.

So, I’m backing Dance Code, a colt with a solid record himself: Three money finishes in four career starts, two of those wins. He also finished third in the Sanford Stakes (Grade III) at Saratoga in July.

Juan C. Vazquez trains Dance Code for Richie’s World Stables LLC. Vazquez put Juarez in the saddle for Dance Code’s most recent victory.
Tuesday’s Picks for Remington Park

Let’s begin with race five, a six-furlong allowance race on the main track for three-year-olds and upward. I’m backing the 5/1 third-favored Mover, piloted by Jose L. Alvarez.

This three-year-old colt moneyed four of his seven career starts, winning two. Mover broke his maiden on his second attempt and has posted solid speed figures since that time.

Granted, the morning-line favorite, My Golden M, has a slightly better money-finishes-to-starts ratio, but all his races have been maiden runs, and his single win was his sixth and most recent graduation try.

Twenty-year racing veteran Ronnie E. Cravens, III trains Mover for owner Geral Dewitt.

Race seven is a six-furlong allowance race on the main track for three-year-olds and upward. I’m betting my two dollars on the 3/1 underdog, Favorable Outcome, with Stewart Elliott in the irons.
This seven-year-old finished 14 of his 24 career starts in the money, winning seven, including the Front Range Stakes at Arapahoe in July of 2020. He’s been campaigned at the stakes level for much of his career, winning the Swale Stakes (Grade II) at Gulfstream Park in 2017 and finishing third in the Malibu Stakes (Grade I) at Santa Anita later that same year.

He’s posted triple-digit speed figures in four of his five most recent races.

Mindy J. Willis trains Favorable Outcome for owners Amy Hardy and Westside Racing Stable.

For race eight—a six-furlong allowance race for Oklahoma-bred three-year-olds and upward—I’m betting on the 8/1 sleeper, Just Chillin, ridden by Floyd Wethey Jr.

This three-year-old gelding has the best statistical record in this nine-horse field: Six money finishes in nine career starts, with two wins. He also finished third in the Will Rogers Stakes at Will Rogers Downs in May and second in the Oklahoma Stallion Stakes at Remington Park in September.

Thirty-year racing veteran Francisco Bravo trains Just Chillin for owner Michael Grossman.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-07-2021, 10:38 AM

Daily Horse Racing Tips – Parx – 7th December
By Spotlight Racing Group

And they're off at PARX Racing
NAP Estate (5:10 Parx)
Next Best Disco Ebo (8:50 Parx)
Other I Am Redeemed (8:19 Parx)
Estate to break maiden

The opening race on the card, a maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies over a mile on the main track, can go the way of the twice-raced Estate.

The daughter of Quality Road was an expensive $300,000 purchase as a yearling last year and showed plenty of ability in the mornings prior to making her racecourse debut on a fast main track over an extended seven-furlong in October.

Michal Trombetta’s charge finished third, beaten a length on that occasion having tracked the pace. A solid 49.80 four-furlong breeze followed while the selection experienced some trouble in running when finishing runner-up, beaten two lengths by a rival who led entering the straight in a similar contest over six furlongs on a muddy main track at the same track last month.

The selection is bred to appreciate this step up in distance and with Mychel Sanchez in the saddle, she is taken to break her maiden at the third time of asking.
TVG
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Ebo for stake success

A daughter of budget sire Weigelia, the Robert Reid Jr-trained filly Disco Ebo has shown that she is a force to be reckoned with in her career so far, having followed up two second-place maiden special weight finishes with three consecutive victories.

The first of those victories came when making all to deliver a wide-margin victory in a maiden special weight contest over five-and-one-half-furlongs at this venue in early September, while she employed similar tactics in a Penn National allowance contest over an extended six furlongs on a sloppy track the following month.

The selection is a late foal having been born in mid-May and as such it’s no surprise to see that she has improved with time, with her most recent victory a five-and-three-quarter-length success in the Shamrock Rose Stakes at Penn National – a career-best effort.

Disco Ebo has a decent draw five off the rail here and she is taken to make all the running to register a fourth consecutive victory.
TVG
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The $300 Risk Free Bet is only open to new TVG account holders in TVG Participating States, age 21+ and 4NJBets account holders who are residents of New Jersey. Void where prohibited by law. To qualify for the Promotion, sign up for a new TVG account using any of the following promo codes: RISKFREE300 between 4/19/21 and 12/31/21. Full T&C Apply. Visit site
Redeemed for fourth success

I Am Redeemed looks capable of taking the eighth race on the Parx card, a mile-and-70-yard allowance event restricted to three-year-olds.

The selection has scored at a higher level in the past, having registered a three-and-a-half-length success in the mile-and-one-sixteenth Storm Cat Stakes at this venue back in August. That particular event was staged on a sloppy main track and it may be that he is best on a wet track.

Abner Adorno’s mount suffered a heavy defeat when upped to Grade 1 company for the Pennsylvania Derby at this venue the following month, but after finishing fifth in a minor stakes here in October, he returned to something like his old form when runner-up in an allowance over this course and distance last month.

Trainer Penny Pearce comes into this contest with a 23% strike-rate (28/123) at this meeting and her representative here can help improve on that.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-07-2021, 10:38 AM

The horse racing tips for Tuesday, December 7, 2021

The Quinté + of Tuesday, December 7 is scheduled at the Chantilly racecourse in the discipline of galloping. Find below our predictions for this race as well as our bet of the day and our bet of madness in two other races on the menu of the day.
THE PRONOS OF THE QUINTE OF DECEMBER 7
Dimitri Blanleuil

4 Central Park West (FAVORI)

He has been beating around the bush for several weeks and is expected to play a leading role again.

9 Fire Of Love (OUTSIDER)

He has a series of good performances and can happily move up the category.
Lionel charbonnier

5 Royaumont

Lionel Charbonnier is confident with the 5 Royaumont which has just finished second in the reference race.
Meeting 3 (Vincennes) – Race 2: 5 Glamor Queen

She had a bad run lately but still finished third. To resume imperatively.
THE MADNESS BET
Meeting 3 (Vincennes) – Race 4: 5 High Edition

She rarely wins but does all of her shopping. In case of faults of the favorites, it can do a “trick”.

Dimitri Blanleuil Journalist RMC Sport

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-07-2021, 10:39 AM

Today's Horse Racing Tips: Tuesday December 7th
Stephen Harris
bettingexpert Racing editor

Today’s Racing Tips – December 7th

There are four race meetings in Britain and Ireland on Tuesday, and all eyes will unusually be at Southwell as they stage their first meeting since removing the deep fibresand. The new tapeta has reportedly settled in well, and clearly trainers approve with a huge number entered at the declarations stage. There are three NH meetings to on a busy day, with Uttoxeter sure to attract plenty of betting interest for the five handicaps on the card.
SELECTION Track Time (UK) Horse ODDS
DAILY NAP Fontwell 12:50PM Whoshotwho 11.00
VALUE ANGLE Fontwell 1:20PM Nashville Nipper 5.00

Best odds available as at 3pm December 6th 2021. Odds may now differ.
Today’s Daily Nap

Whoshotwho

Fontwell, 12:50 pm

Dr Richard Newland’s frustrating handicapper ran really well around this unique course and distance when second to Darebin in October, and overdid things from the front when disappointing at Ffos Las last time out. He is sure to get a more patient ride this time from Sam Twiston-Davies-Davies (with loads of frontrunners in the line up likely to duel on the lead), and can come through smoothly up the straight if putting in a fluent round of jumping.
Today’s Value Angle

Nashville Nipper

Fontwell, 1:20 pm

Toby Lawes unexposed 7-y-o has shaped well in all four starts so far this season, including at Fontwell back in October, and he has been found a terrific opening here dropping down in class under the excellent Tom Cannon. This stiffer test of stamina at 2m5f should suit ideally after a fair fourth at Uttoxeter last time out, and he remains with upside after just six career starts under Rules (promising pointer previously).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-07-2021, 10:39 AM

Robin Goodfellow's Racing Tips: Best bets for Tuesday, December 7
By Sam Turner For The Daily Mail

Sportsmail's racing expert Robin Goodfellow dishes out his tips for Tuesday's meetings at Uttoxeter, Southwell and Fontwell.

UTTOXETER

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

12.00 Get A Tonic

12.30 Quick Draw

1.00 Dorisa Queen

1.30 Gustavian (nap)

2.00 Alborkan

2.30 Clondaw Promise

3.00 Cousu Main

3.30 Anyharminasking

GIMCRACK

12.00 Get A Tonic

12.30 Quick Draw

1.00 Lady Malarkey

1.30 Master Debonair

2.00 Kalzari

2.30 Clondaw Promise

3.00 Full Of Light

3.30 Hidor De Bersy

SOUTHWELL

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

4.00 Toromona

4.30 Lipsink

5.00 Hooves Like Jagger

5.30 Viola

6.00 Midgetonamission

6.30 Love Mystery

7.00 Teumessias Fox

7.30 Redzone

GIMCRACK

4.00 Toromona

4.30 Zarzyni (nap)

5.00 Beat The Breeze

5.30 Virgin Snow (nb)

6.00 Sun Rising

6.30 Government

7.00 Wineglass Bay

7.30 Kodi Gold

Northerner – 4.30 Zarzyni (nap); 7.30 Redzone (nb).

Newmarket – 5.30 Timeless Soul (nb); 7.00 Yantarni (nap).

FONTWELL

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

12.20 Top Brass

12.50 Galileo Silver

1.20 With Pleasure

1.50 Whatsupwithyou

2.20 Ucanaver (nb)

2.50 Wouldubewell

3.20 Lockdown Leader

GIMCRACK

12.20 Oceanline

12.50 Cilaos Glace

1.20 Rare Clouds

1.50 Kap Auteuil

2.20 Ucanaver

2.50 Chloe’s Court

3.20 Kepy Blanc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-07-2021, 10:39 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Penn National - Race #3
Picks Notes
#1 Jekyll Island He was never involved in the debut, but he'll get down in class for this second start while dropping off the bench here, and he'll race with Lasix this time around. Think he has some price appeal.
#7 Sunshine Tommy He'll make his local debut after turning in a decent effort at Parx, and he might find the local company a bit more to his liking. Not sure I trust him to repeat that last one, though.
#6 Flat Busted He'll try this level for the first time after chasing and fading in all four lifetime starts, and there is always a chance a horse with some pace like this can get brave turning for home in front.
Race Summary Jekyll Island is worth a small look here at a price while getting Lasix for his second career start. He'll have to fire fresh off the long layoff, but there doesn't appear to be anything to be afraid of in here.

Penn National - Race #5
Picks Notes
#1 Thunder Grunder He's in good form and has the ability to turn the tables on the guy who beat him last time out in a spot where there might be an honest enough pace -- a ground-saving midpack trip might get him home.
#7 Krachenwagen Tactical speed goes off the claim after racing with much better than this over most of the last year, and he's a good fit right back at this level after handling similar last time out.
#4 Spin Cycle He handled the top choice when they met last out, and he has some pretty reliable form from close range. He's probably the one to beat at an underlaid price?
Race Summary Thunder Grunder might be able settle back and spy a few forward players, and he might offer a playable enough price with the other listed pair likely to command attention.

Penn National - Race #7
Picks Notes
#3 Tankinator He was sharp on the engine in that win at Parx last out, but he was no serious threat when facing similar in that two-back run over the local footing. Tough with his best.
#7 Dakota Outlaw He's quick enough to keep up early in here on the cut back around one turn, and he draws well to spy whatever pace shows from the inside along with the top choice.
#5 Don't Losemymoney He has some forward ability, but I worry that he'll get caught up with a tougher customer like the top choice early, and then he'll have to try to find more late. Think he loses this battle.
Race Summary Tankinator should be right up on the splits in the early going here, and he is capable of something a bit better than what he showed in his only previous local try.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-07-2021, 10:40 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Dover Downs - Race #3
Picks Notes
#5 BLOWNOUTOFTHEWATER Third behind faves despite equipment problems on step up to this level, solid play.
#3 SPEE CLUB Beaten fave can use his speed well in this spot.
#4 FUN TIME CHARLIE Middle move to lead at stretch call, just missed.
Race Summary Blownoutofthewater ran third behind the favorites despite broken equipment at this level. He meets mostly class risers today and was Morgan's choice on a triple call. Play 5-3 and 5-4 exactas.

The Meadows - Race #2
Picks Notes
#1 MUSKINGUM Slowed by pace and traffic congestion, goes well from rail.
#3 PERTH ANGEL DE VIE Numbers translate well to this spot, 12 of 22 in money this year.
#6 LOVE OF PRAYERS Responded to front-end tactics with Palone in bike.
Race Summary Muskingum was trapped 4-deep on the rail until mid-stretch, finished with good energy and galloped out well. Play 1-3 and 1-6 exactas.

Yonkers - Race #3
Picks Notes
#5 STELLAR YANKEE Class drop the answer for battle against older rivals.
#7 DRACARYS Z Anxious third, ranged up alongside faves, out-kicked in lane.
#1 SO MANY ROADS Gapped in pocket two back, drew post 8 in follow up.
Race Summary Stellar Yankee met short-priced winners in his last two starts, gets needed class relief and can get back on the winning track. Play 5-1 and 5-7 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-07-2021, 10:40 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Remington Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#1 Bluegrass Breeze Ran an even fourth on a sloppy track last out and will get involved earlier from the inside post; can probably be a battler at this level.
#6 Golden Ale Probable favorite as he drops to maiden claiming after showing speed in maiden special races; dangerous if he can get clear early.
#2 Rocked Drops out of longer races and probably has a shot to make up some serious late ground.
Race Summary Bluegrass Breeze improved in his second start and can break well and benefit from the rail spot; expect continued improvement.

Remington Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#8 Mongolian Lotus Weakened as the favorite at a higher level on turf and should get back to good form with this class drop and return to dirt.
#5 Big Base Has shown speed in starter allowances and could be tough to catch going longer.
#7 Break At Dawn Was third in an allowance race three back and can be troublesome if he runs back to that one.
Race Summary Mongolian Lotus has won 6 of 12 on the turf and has never been at a lower level.

Remington Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#3 Acting Wizard Was along for third vs. similar last time and will probably get a lively pace to chase this time around.
#5 Heputtheaceinrace Held on for second at this price last out and the Craddock stable is always worth a look.
#1 Coach Dan Has shown speed in sprints and likely will be out front or close to it; could enjoy the stretch-out.
Race Summary Acting Wizard followed a slow pace and couldn't bring a lot of heat late in the game last time but should get a more favorable setup here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-07-2021, 12:42 PM

Turf Paradise Selections for December 7, 2021 – Horse Racing Picks

By Kyle E in Horse Racing — Dec 7th, 2021 12:45am PST

BetOnline has five racecourses for wagering on Tuesday. You can find Turf Paradise, Remington Park, Penn National, Parx, and Mountaineer Park available for wagering on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Industry Leading 9% Cashback!

Parx has the feature race of the day with the $200,000 Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes expected to run in Philadelphia. It’s supposed to be a clear and sunny day today in Philadelphia, so it should be a good day for racing.

TheSportsGeek is at Parx and Turf Paradise in Arizona on Tuesday afternoon. Turf Paradise has eight races, two on the turf, for a total of $133,070 in prize money available. Head below for our free Turf Paradise picks on December 7, 2021.
Taking Your Horse Race Betting to the Next Level
Race 1
(1) Seven Points
+350 (7/2)
(2) Big News Coming
+250 (5/2)
(3) Sugar On Top
+500 (5/1)
(4) Steinway
+450 (9/2)
(5) Pancakes and Beer
+800 (8/1)
(6) Snoozy Suzy
+1500 (15/1)
(7) Bones and Roses
+1000 (10/1)
(8) Abigail Aiden
+600 (6/1)

Post Time: 12:40 p.m. MST
Distance:1 Mile
Purse:$12,350

The first event at Turf Paradise is a $12,350 event covering a mile. Seven Points and Big News Coming should run like top contenders in this one.

Seven Points is winless in 11 attempts, but looks like to have a chance against this field. She has finished 2nd, 5th, 5th in her last three outings.

Seven Points had five straight appearances in the top-3, but went 5th in back-to-back races recently. In her last go on November 23, Seven Points finished 5th for a $20,600 prize.

Down to $12,350, Seven Points has to be worth considering. Big News Coming hasn’t had a win in six career races.

She is coming off a decent bid to finish 4th in a $20,600 race. Big News Coming edged out Seven Points by 6 ¼ lengths in that one.

With both going down in class and meeting again, I like a better bid from the No. 2 at Turf Paradise.
The Bet
(2) BIG NEWS COMING
+250
Place Bet Now!
Race 2
(1) Mr. Fireball
+800 (8/1)
(2) Abranian Story
+450 (9/2)
(3) Market King
+350 (7/2)
(4) Dark Hedges
+160 (8/5)
(5) Vicente’s Shadow
+600 (6/1)
(6) Sorriso
+800 (8/1)
(7) Conquest Smartee
+500 (5/1)

Post Time: 1:10 p.m. MST
Distance:6 Furlongs
Purse:$25,350

The second race at Turf Paradise covers 6 furlongs for a $25,350 purse. This one looks like a tough one between Dark Hedges and Market King in the stretch.

Market King is 4 for 21 in his career, and has finished 1st in back-to-back outings on November 9 and November 22.

He defeated Pintxos by 2 lengths in a $23,000 race, and then came back to beat Mr View by 2 ¾ lengths in a $13,880 assignment.

Market King has been seeing the track over the last several months. He’s finished in the top-3 in five of his last six outings, and should be close again on Tuesday.

Dark Hedges will be a strong contender in this one. He is 4 for 16 in his career, and has finished 5th, 2nd, 1st in his last three with improvement.

Dark Hedges is fresh off a 1 length win for a $23,600 purse on November 9. This was after placing 2nd behind Satchel de Ritches by 2 ¼ lengths for a $25,000 prize at Del Mar on August 22.

The transfer to Turf Paradise did Dark Hedges plenty of good. After racing at Santa Anita and Del Mar, a trip to Turf Paradise to search for easier foes helped put him in the winner’s circle.
The Bet
(4) DARK HEDGES
+160
Place Bet Now!
Race 8
(1) Perfect Fanny
+300 (3/1)
(2) Hotfoot
+200 (2/1)
(3) Capital Expense
+400 (4/1)
(4) Sharp Dressed Beau
+600 (6/1)
(5) Thief in the Night
+1500 (15/1)
(6) Jacks Outlaw
+800 (8/1)
(7) No Pasa Nada
+500 (5/1)
(8) Marque It Up
+3000 (30/1)
(9) Stitzy
+450 (9/2)

Post Time: 4:11 p.m. MST
Distance:5 Furlongs
Purse:$26,350

Race 8 covers 5 furlongs on the turf for a $26,350 purse. Jacks Outlaw and Hotfoot should be two contenders to win.

Jacks Outlaw is 4 for 23 in his career, finishing 1st, 1st, 4th in his previous three outings. He was a back-to-back winner on February 10 and March 5.

In the first of those two wins, Jacks Outlaw won because of a DQ after placing 2nd behind Matson by a neck for a $10,600 prize, and then a half length win for a $16,500 prize on March 5.

This sequence was after finishing 6th, 7th, 6th, so a drop in glass helped. However, in his most recent attempt, the colt finished 4th in a $30,000 assignment on April 9.

Hotfoot is 14 for 59 in his career, and is looking good as of late. He is searching for a hat-trick after a win on November 8 and November 18.

He beat Raofthesun by 3 ¾ lengths in a $16,400 assignment, and then followed up for a 1 length win for $24,800 to show that he’s capable in a tougher race.

This looks like another assignment where Hotfoot should be capable enough for another win.
The Bet
(2) HOTFOOT
+200

Tuesday 12/7/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Tuesday 12/7/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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