Saturday 12/11/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-11-2021, 07:31 AM

Aqueduct (1st) Romantic Man, 6-1
(2nd) Bad Guy, 4-1

Charles Town (5th) Transfer the Funds, 3-1
(6th) Forever Takes Time, 5-1

Delta Downs (1st) Macho Mark, 7-2
(7th) Flashburn, 7-2

Fair Grounds (9th) Bron and Brow, 5-1
(12th) Medley, 8-1

Golden Gate Fields (5th) Holy Ghost, 5-1
(8th) Prance, 7-2

Gulfstream Park (2nd) Mr Tito’s, 5-1
(8th) Bargainaire, 8-1

Hawthorne (4th) Inside the Circle, 4-1
(7th) Chinobe, 7-2

Los Alamitos (4th) Mongol Altai, 7-2
(6th) Ultimate Bango, 4-1

Mahoning Valley (3rd) Private Drive, 7-2
(7th) Panamanian Teaser, 3-1

Oaklawn Park (1st) Ike, 5-1
(4th) Emperador, 4-1

Remington Park (6th) Sola, 7-2
(9th) Guinessey, 7-2

Tampa Bay Downs (3rd) Thats All Shewrote, 5-1
(10th) Betterment, 8-1

Turfway Park (4th) Buy Me Candy, 3-1
(5th) So Darn Hot, 4-1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-11-2021, 02:45 PM

Oaklawn Park Picks & Betting Analysis for December 11: Poinsettia S. Feature
By J.N. Campbell

OAKLAWN PARK Picks
11th December 2021

Race 1 : 6-3-8-4
Race 2 : 5-7-3-2
Race 3 : 2-7-4-6
Race 4 : 1-8-9-4
Race 5 : 7-3-2-6
Race 6 : 11-6-8-9
Race 7 : 6-3-1-2
Race 8 : 5-9-7-3
Race 9 : 3-2-4-6
Race 10 : 4-8-2-1
View Today's OAKLAWN PARK Entries

Celebrated Oaklawn Park reminds me of a college town ... a college town geared for horse racing that is. Everything in Hot Springs is about the Meet, and everyone in-town knows what to do. A weekend of racing is ahead as OP adds a new "Non-G" stakes race, the aptly-named Poinsettia S. It should be an absolute blast!

At Horseracing.net/us we have you covered, including all of the action! It is a good time for some of the best that North American racing has to offer. Stay tuned!

If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country this Saturday be sure to check out our free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.
Horse Racing Picks
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Most Likely Winner: (Race 8: Fan Club #5, 3/1):

The Gary and Mary West-owned 3-yr-old colt by Street Sense needs some class relief after running in his 1st race with his new barn at Churchill Downs back on 24 Nov. Brad Cox sent him into MSW120k contest, and he just did not do much in the way of running—ended up 7th/11. There was purpose in that failure because Cox used it to find a much more appropriate spot. He is a master at such moves, and I think the trainers at Oaklawn are wary when they are going up against him. This well-bred runner is just itching to break his maiden, and I think at odds of 3/1, you are looking at a solid winner from an excellent barn. Recalibration is key in situations like this, and jockey Florent Geroux can lead the way!

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #5

Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 2: Sacred Oath #5, 10/1):

Bug girl Chel-C Bailey got her 1st win at Oaklawn on Friday, and she is looking for more. Weighing in at 115, she has that in her corner, but more importantly, a strong ability in the saddle. Her mount today for Norm McKnight looks inviting, especially since this runner has spent since July running at Woodbine’s Summer and Fall Meet. That was some good ALLW Co. this 5-yr-old gelding was up against, and I think it could be of use at this level in Hot Springs. The offspring of Quality Road can be pretty versatile at a variety of distances. Let’s back this price (10/1), and see if Bailey can keep her streak going on Saturday.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #5 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)

Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 9: Dirt, 1 1/16th, Poinsettia S., $150k, 3):

With Oaklawn now running in December, it gives the Cella organization the opportunity to expand their wonderful stakes schedule. This “Non-G” event is therefore new to the line-up, but it brings together an interesting bunch of 3-yr-olds. Of course, most of the Oaklawn faithful will be rooting and betting on the Asmussen entry, Super Stock #4. The reigning Arkansas Derby winner was awfully good the last time he visisted Hot Springs, and coming off a win out at Zia Park in a high-priced $250k event just a couple of weeks ago, he is looking to runback strong in this spot. I am against this son of Dialed In because I’ve watched him falter on 3 occasions (LS/PRM/RP). I do not think there will be much in the way of value here … my guess is that Keith Asmussen’s (part-owner) colt will hover around 4/5 before post time. Instead, I am much more enthusiastic about Karl Broberg’s Flash of Mischief #3. Here is a runner that breaks well, rates nicely, and has the back class to easily game with this crowd. Jerry Namy is one of the “good’uns” in this business of racing as an owner, and it would be excellent to see this son of the great Into Mischief come to OP ready to fire. I do not think the stretch out to 1 1/16th will be much of a problem. After that last effort at Delta, he looks fit as can be. Let’s use Broberg’s ace on top, but I also what to roll 2 others in underneath to complete this Superfecta ticket that I have planned. Using Tom Amoss’ Defeater #2 and Mike Maker’s Simovitch #6 are logical considering that they are coming off of strong performances in their last races, respectively. That should be a nice, juicy ticket … Poinsettia … on!

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Superfecta, 3 w 2/4/6 w 2/4/6 w 2/4/6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-11-2021, 02:46 PM

Aqueduct Picks & Betting Analysis for December 11
By J.N. Campbell

AQUEDUCT Picks
11th December 2021

Race 1 : 8-6-4-7
Race 2 : 10-8-3-4
Race 3 : 7-1-2-4
Race 4 : 10-2-7-5
Race 5 : 7-1-2-5
Race 6 : 5-1-8-6
Race 7 : 4-7-1-9
Race 8 : 5-2-1-7
Race 9 : 6-13-14-4
View Today's AQUEDUCT Entries

NYRA's Aqueduct Racetrack just completed what has been touted as a "very successful" Fall Meet, especially concerning handle. They immediately head straight into their Winter Session. Though the turf is covered until April, dirt racing is 100% available ... so, this is still one of the tracks that garners mass attention.

At Horseracing.net/us we have you covered, including all of the action! It is a good time for some of the best that North American racing has to offer. Stay tuned!

If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country this Saturday be sure to check out our free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.
Horse Racing Picks
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Most Likely Winner: (Race 4: Trash Talker #10, 5/2):

When it comes to NYRA claiming, Rob Atras has some numbers that are pretty impressive. Back in early October, he scored this gelding by Competitive Edge, and I like the fact that he is sending this new member of his barn back into ALLW Co. With a frontrunning style that is powerful from the start, this could be another victory. Looking over this 4-yr-old’s record at the “Big A,” he has 5 starts, 1 win, and a pair of show results to his credit. Atras gets together with Jose Ortiz, and I am hoping these two dynamic fellows can get the job done.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #10

Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 7: Crypto Cash #4, 12/1):

Even though Linda Rice’s AQU Meet is off to a slow start, she can score with a double-digit odds runner from her stable that is by Majesticperfection. Since coming over from Joe Sharp’s operation earlier this year, the gelding has made the switch from the turf to the dirt. That new surface attempt in a Clm20k event, resulted in a 3rd place finish. Having to go 6-wide on the dirt in that race was no easy task, and even though he tired in the end, he has the chance to improve here at a big price. The addition of Kendrick Carmouche sounds like a major plus to me!

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #4 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)

Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 8: Dirt, 6F, Garland of Roses S., $100k, F&M 3+):

The Saturday feature on the Aqueduct card is the $100 Garland of Roses S. A group of 7 will be going 1-turn in what should amount to an all-out war on the dirt. I would check the weather conditions before handicapping on Saturday because it could be impactful. The favorite coming into this race will be Glass Ceiling #2 from the Baker Barn. The 4-yr-old filly by Constitution is coming off a 2nd place finish in spilt Pumpkin Pie 100k, which was run at Belmont on Halloween. Dylan Davis tried to get his mount up in time, but he just could not catch Cox’s Lady Rocket. That runner just came back nicely in the Go For Wand (G3) at Aqueduct during their Fall Meet. Based on the other entries, it is hard to believe that anyone will be able to game with Davis down the lane. But I am going to try to beat this well-bred filly … My top selection instead goes to Chad Brown’s Starfront #5. This filly by Malibu Moon is a Juddmonte homebred, who actually was in the other half of the Pumpkin Pie 100k. Though she ended up 5th in that race, I think she can rebound nicely after a smart-looking work tab since. The accomplished Jose Ortiz, her only rider in 3 career starts, once again gets the call. If her odds end up 4/1, even higher, this looks like a quality overlay to me. Let’s play her on top, and place Baker’s runner underneath in an ice-cold Exacta … should go with the temperature.

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Exacta Cold, 5 w 2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-11-2021, 02:46 PM

Weekend Gameplan for Dec. 11, 2021: Picks for the Mr. Prospector, Poinsettia, Louisiana Champions Day Classic
Marcus HershDec 09, 2021

Good news! There’s excellent top-level Thoroughbred racing this weekend. Bad news! It’s happening in the middle of the night.

The 2021 Hong Kong International Races come Sunday afternoon at Sha Tin, which, challengingly, is the middle of Saturday night in America. Homegrown star Golden Sixty goes for his second straight Hong Kong Mile and 16th win in a row, but Danon Kingly, part of a large Japanese contingent, might beat him at a fair price. Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf heroine Loves Only You will be the chalk in the Hong Kong Cup, with Dubai Honour the upset chance.

The compelling nature of these races aside, we’ll stick closer to home.

Mr. Prospector

Since September, trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. has started six horses in dirt stakes at Gulfstream Park, those runners compiling a record of 3-1-0, and I expect Wind of Change to enhance the Joseph strike rate when he runs in the Mr. Prospector.

Wind of Change hardly will offer boxcar odds in this seven-horse field, but he’s the 3-1 third choice on the track’s morning line, and something like that would be fair, especially considering the two other “logical contenders.”

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Endorsed, 5-2 on the line, brings a 14-race losing streak dating to May 2020 into this seven-furlong contest. Dennis’ Moment is listed at 2-1, which feels like a massive underlay on a horse whose shining moments came as a 2-year-old of 2019, and whose bounce-back race, in October at Keeneland, was a grinding second-level allowance victory.

Three superficially subpar showings somewhat obscure Wind of Change’s strongly contending form. Wind of Change’s most recent race came over the Tapeta surface at Gulfstream, and this is a dirt horse. Two back, he tried a two-turn sprint over the Charles Town bullring, where he ran all right but wasn’t at his best. And three races ago, during a really trying Saratoga meeting for Joseph, a bump at the start took Wind of Change out of his best game, which is leading.

Here, with an inside draw, an alert break will put Wind of Change on the lead. His best races have come at six furlongs, not seven. He faded to fourth in the 2020 Mr. Prospector, but the three horses that passed him a year ago, before Joseph began training the horse, all are better than anything Wind of Change faces Saturday.

Poinsettia

Super Stock, the 9-5 favorite in this late-season 3-year-old dirt route, has been racing steadily since March. Flash of Mischief, the 5-2 second choice, has been on the go without a break since his career debut 13 months ago at Remington Park. Ram, sure to be a lower price than his 12-1 morning line, began his campaign in January and hasn’t gotten a break.

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The Poinsettia begs for a fresh horse, a horse like Defeater, who went out with an injury after two promising performances last winter at Fair Grounds and has only raced three times since his return. Two of those starts came around one turn and looked quite encouraging, but Defeater floundered in his two-turn start this form cycle, the Oklahoma Derby, making one wonder if he can race as effectively at a distance this long.

Last Samurai comes with the opposite concern: Is the 1 1/16-mile Poinsettia too short? Possibly, as this late-developing colt’s good recent form has come at distances between nine and 12 furlongs, but I’ll guess Last Samurai, presumably at a fair price, will adapt.

Last Samurai’s journey last out in a Churchill allowance race was about as tough as trips get. Blocked behind a wall of horses from the five-sixteenths pole past the quarter pole, Last Samurai finally found a spot of daylight, only to get slammed off stride and wind up blocked again at the furlong grounds. He probably moved too soon facing older foes in the 1 1/2-mile Greenwood Cup and has gotten in two workouts since that Churchill debacle.

Louisiana Champions Day Classic

There are at this point essentially no Louisiana-bred older horses truly qualified to run a strong race over 1 1/8 miles on dirt, so I’ll look to 3-year-old Highland Creek to step up and win the Champions Day Classic. This gelding remained in early development stages when beaten last spring in the Crescent City Derby by stablemate Who Took the Money, but Highland Creek returned at Delta Downs last month following a long layoff with the best race of his life, and on pedigree he’s likely to stay the nine-furlong distance.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-11-2021, 02:46 PM

Best Horse Racing Bets for Saturday, December 11, 2021
By J.W. Paine in Horse Racing
| December 10, 2021 10:40 am PST
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All three of the tracks I selected for my Saturday horseracing picks—Aqueduct Racetrack, Los Alamitos Race Course, and Mahoning Valley Race Course—yielded up a feast-or-famine buffet of morning-line favorites and long-odds surprises.

Take Los Alamitos, for example. Two picks that jibe with the morning-line’s opinion—and then a 10/1 surprise moneymaker pops up in the seventh race. Go figure.

In any case, be sure to check out all the races with a visit to one of our recommended online racebooks.

Good luck!
Saturday’s Picks for Aqueduct Racetrack

We’re on the main track for race six, a six-furlong allowance optional claiming race for New York-bred fillies and mares three years old and upward. I like the 5/2 morning line favorite for this race: Breakfastatbonnies, with top jockey Jose Lezcano in the irons.

This three-year-old filly finished all four of her career starts in the money, winning two, including her initial maiden try back in January, as well as an allowance race in July.

Ranked among the top 100 trainers for the past five years, Danny Gargan trains Breakfastatbonnies for owners Jonathan Thorne and R. A. Hill Stable.

Race seven is a one-mile claiming run on the main track for three-year-olds and upward. I have to agree with the morning line for this race, as well.

I’m betting my two dollars on the 3/1 favorite, Hammerin Aamer, ridden by Jose L. Ortiz.
This seven-year-old gelding moneyed 25 of his 48 career starts, winning ten—five of which were in 2021.

Co-owner Gustavo Rodriguez trains Hammerin Aamer for himself and Andrew Gurdon. Rodriguez has tapped Ortiz to saddle Hammerin Aamer for his two most recent races, both wins.

Race eight is the Garland of Roses Stakes, $100,000 purse, six-furlong dirt run for fillies and mares three years old and upward. My money’s on the 6/1 sleeper in this race, Sadie Lady, with Kendrick Carmouche aboard.

In a tightly matched seven-horse field, this five-year-old mare is a real stand-out with 12 money finishes in 21 career starts, eight of them wins, including the Correction Stakes (Black Type) at Aqueduct in March and the Dancin Renee Stakes (Black Type) at Belmont Park in June.

In between those two, she also finished second in the Vagrancy Handicap (Grade III) at Belmont in May.

Rob Atras trains Sadie Lady for owner Dennis Narlinger. Atras put Carmouche in the irons for Sadie Lady’s Vagrancy Handicap run.
My Saturday Picks for Los Alamitos Race Course

Let’s start with race six, a six-furlong allowance race for three-year-olds and upward. I have to go with the morning line on this one, if for no other reason than that the favorite is the only horse in this short field of five that has won a race this year.

And the seven-year-old gelding Law Abidin Citizen, with Abel Cedillo aboard, is the 6/5 favorite in this race for other, but just as obvious reasons: 18 money finishes in 32 career starts, eight of them wins, including the 2019 San Simeon Stakes (Grade III) at Santa Anita, the 2019 Longacres Mile Handicap (Grade III) at Emerald Downs, and the Oak Tree Sprint Stakes (Black Type) at Pleasanton this past July.

Oh, and he’s been posting triple-digit speed figures all year.

With nearly three decades in the horseracing business, Breeders’ Cup veteran Mark Glatt trains Law Abidin Citizen for owners Dan J. Agnew, Gerry Schneider, and John V. Xitco.

Race seven is a six-furlong allowance optional claiming race for three-year-olds and upward. I like one of the 10/1 underdogs in this race (the morning line puts three of this eight-horse field at those odds): See Through It, piloted by Drayden Van Dyke.
This four-year-old gelding finished in the money for seven of his 13 career starts, winning three—including his most recent two races in September and November.

Thirty-year racing veteran Brian J. Koriner trains See Through It for Jet Enterprises, Inc.

Race nine is the Los Alamitos Futurity (Grade II), a $300,000 purse, 1-1/16 miles main track stakes race for two-year-olds. One of the prep races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, the race awards points to the top four finishers, one of whom might just be the 2022 winner of the Kentucky Derby.

But that’s not until next May. Right now, I’m buying a win ticket on the 1/2 morning-line favorite in this race, Messier, with Flavien Prat in the irons.

This colt moneyed all three of his career starts, winning two—his second maiden try in October, followed immediately by a win in the Bob Hope Stakes (Grade III) at Del Mar last month. In this short field of five, he’ll do quite nicely.

Bob Baffert trains Messier for owners Golconda Stable, Madaket Stables LLC, SF Racing LLC, Siena Farm LLC, Starlight Racing, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine Donovan, Robert E. Masterson, and Jay A. Schoenfarber.
Saturday’s Picks for Mahoning Valley Race Course

We’re starting with race three, a one-mile claiming race for Ohio-bred three-year-olds and upward. I’m not impressed with any of this nine-horse field, but the one I’m least unimpressed with is the 8/1 underdog Oaks Honey, ridden by veteran jockey Sonny Leon.

This five-year-old gelding finished in the money 17 of his 37 career starts, winning seven, including three of his last four in 2021.

Co-owner Joseph M. Poole trains Oaks Honey for himself and Richard H. McCall. Poole put Leon in the irons for Oaks Honey’s most recent win in late November.

Race four is a five-furlong starter allowance race on the main track for three-year-olds and upward. My money’s on the 6/1 underdog, Jamming Cameron, piloted by top jockey Edgar Paucar.
In a nine-horse field like this one, it’s easy for this four-year-old gelding to make a good impression: 20 money finishes in 28 career starts, nine of them wins. And he’s moneyed all ten of his 2021 starts, winning six. Will he do? Magic 8-Ball says “Hella Yes.”

Newcomer Stephani Norris recently took over for Ralph Martinez in training Jamming Cameron for owner Gabe Shafer.

Race six is a one-mile allowance run on the main track for Ohio-bred three-year-olds and upward. I’m buying a win ticket on Cat Heat, with Marshall Mendez aboard.

This four-year-old gelding has a record like the favorite, with one glaring exception: He’s won a race in 2021.

For the record, Cat Heat moneyed six of his 19 career starts, winning two. Not a thrilling story, but his performance in 2021 shows improvement: five money finishes in 13 starts, with one win. Helping him toward the finish line will be jockey Mendez’ apprentice weight allowance.

With more than a decade in the business, Robin Schuster trains Cat Heat for Schuster Racing, LLC.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-11-2021, 02:46 PM

Free Horse Racing Tips Today – Saturday, December 11th, 2021

Free Horse Racing Tips - 11th Dec
The Shark

We have studied the form from all races across the country for Saturday, December 11th, and provided our best horse racing tips.

A great card of racing particularly at Royal Randwick where they will host the time-honoured Group 2 Villiers Stakes over the famous mile circuit along with the Listed Christmas Cup for the stayers over the 2400m and the Razor Sharp for the sprinters over the 1200m.

There is also plenty of two year old talent on display with the rich Inglis Nursery at Royal Randwick, whilst there are others chasing all important prize money across the nation as they attempt to gain a berth in the fast approaching Magic Millions carnival on the Gold Coast.

We have made five selections in total and are confident that we have found you some winners! So, read on below to find our best horse racing tips for this Saturday, December 11th.
Flemington, Race 1 – 5. Stupendo ($4.00)

Debutant for first season sire Supido from the Danny O’Brien yard who looked very racey when winning a Werribee jump out on Monday. He bombed the start there from the widest gate but had no trouble rounding them up when he cruised to the lead after tracking four deep.

He still wanted to do plenty wrong once he found the front which explains why his time wasn’t slightly sharper but Craig Williams gets the steering duties on Saturday where we are sure he will be expertly handled. The straight 1100m at Flemington can be a help or a hindrance for young horses but this speedy little colt only needs to race tractably under Williams and we think he’ll be winning this.
Randwick, Race 2 – 3. Media Starguest ($3.90)

This big lump of a fellow might be finally starting to hit his straps and I think master horseman Ron Quinton has pulled the right rein with this 4yo son of Rubick on a number of levels.

With rain continuing to loiter around Sydney we are certain the ground will pose no problem for him. His three wins to date have come on rain affected ground, and his latest run in which he found the line strongly was on a heavy 10. He was 1400m straight to 1800m that day but he never shirked to the task on the trying surface and although he comes back to the 1600m Saturday, I think the roomier circuit of Randwick will be more to his liking than Rosehill.

He drops back from a full stakes Bm78 grade race to a Midway race and there aren’t many riding better than Reece Jones in Sydney at the moment, and there wouldn’t be a better three kilo claiming apprentice in the country. Travest looks the main rival but given his dislike of the winning post, it looks a good play to take him on at the prices.
Kembla Grange, Race 1 – 3. Rise of the Masses ($2.80)

He was our best bet on Wednesday at Warwick Farm where they scratched in hope of a better track. Whilst it seems unlikely they will find that at Kembla Saturday, it does look a slightly easier race and we are sure this colt by speed machine Russian Revolution out of a Group 1 winning Kiwi mare will be very much at home over both the 1000m scamper and in the wet conditions.

Winona Costin has a long and successful relationship with the Waterhouse and Bott stable and has an excellent strike rate punching home winners for them at the provincials. We expect this colt to win this and head on to much better things.
Gold Coast, Race 4 – 1. Higher ($1.85)

We were very pleased to see this Exceed and Excel colt in the acceptances for Saturday as we have been sweating on him for some time. Was trialling well last preparation and was scratched on a number of occasions when a speight of wet weather set in on the ‘Sunshine State’.

He was tipped out for a break on the back of that but could not have been more professional or more impressive in a recent trial at the Gold Coast and he has a real sense of timing to him this time in, with their feature carnival just around the corner.

The old firm team up here of Freedman and Callow and both have been firing on all cylinders since relocating to the Gold Coast. This looks a very nice race for him to kick off in.
Randwick, Race 8 – 14. Criaderas ($14/$4.20)

An enigmatic talent to say the least but we really believe he is building up for a nice win this time in. There’s a case to say the Group 2 Villiers over the 1600m is a run too soon, but at the odds, in a big field, over the expansive Royal Randwick mile, he is worth an each way bet at good odds.

There is sure to be plenty of tempo in this which is a must for this son of Lonhro given his racing pattern and don’t be deterred by the wide draw as big numbers rate highly in Randwick feature miles.

Can rattle off an impressive sectional as was evident when making up plenty of ground behind Count De Rupee in The Gong at his latest start. We expect him to run well here and if he does, stick with him in the Group 3 Summer Cup on Boxing day over the 2000m.

Best Bet – 3. Rise of the Masses (Kembla Grange, Race 1)
Next Best – 1. Higher (Gold Coast, Race 4)
Best Roughie – 14. Criaderas (Randwick, Race 8)

*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of Sportsbet.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-11-2021, 02:47 PM

Rocket Picks ��: Gulfstream, Oaklawn, and Aqueduct for December 11, 2021

Aqueduct December 11, 2021

Race 6: Allowance Optional Claiming

#6 Breakfastastbonnies has hit the board in all four of her career starts so far. She will be around with a chance once again today. #1A Honey Money is a very consistent runner on this circuit at this level.

Race 7: Claiming
freestar

#1 Musical America takes a slight drop down in class for this race after running fairly well against tougher company in his last few starts. #7 Hammerin Aamer has won two straight against softer company leading up to this race. His speed figures suggest he can compete well with this group.

Race 8: Garland of Roses Stakes

#7 Song River will look for her third straight win after two impressive allowance scores in a row. She is ready to take on stakes company. #6 Sadie Lady has won tougher stakes races than this in the past, and should have a big shot to do it again today.

Race 9: Claiming

#14 Donnybrook Girl moves way down in class for this race after a poor effort last time out. This is the level where she belongs. #3 Hey Its Tati can win this race with improvement today when running second off of the claim for her new trainer.

THE TICKET
freestar

$.50 Pick 4 (Races 6-9) 1A,4,6,9 / 1,7,9 / 5,6,7 / 3,13,14 – $54

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-11-2021, 02:47 PM

Robin Goodfellow's Racing Tips: Best bets for Saturday, December 11
By Sam Turner For The Daily Mail

Nicky Henderson has appeared to spend more time fighting critics than on National Hunt’s major prizes this season, but FUSIL RAFFLES (Cheltenham, nap, 1.50) can redress the balance in the Racing Post Gold Cup.

The likes of stable big guns Shishkin and Champ have sidestepped their intended targets in recent weeks, with the Seven Barrows trainer determined not to compromise the campaigns of his stars by running when conditions aren’t satisfactory.

Those methods have encouraged social media commentators to be even more active than usual. But Henderson has shrugged off the brickbats and in Fusil Raffles, Henderson has a second-season novice capable of building on a very promising start to the season.

A comeback effort behind the highly talented Bravemansgame at Newton Abbot served to blow away the cobwebs and, although the selection was gifted the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby by Shan Blue’s late demise, it was an encouraging display over three miles for the first time.

However, his best effort in an eight-race chase career came on today’s New Course when following home stablemate Chantry House in the Grade One Marsh Chase at the Festival in March.

Saturday’s feature will demand a different skillset from the six-year-old, but jockey Daryl Jacob felt that Fusil Raffles learned plenty from his Wetherby experience and the ability to stay three miles while having the pace to win over shorter are valuable assets this afternoon.

CHELTENHAM

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

12.05 Message Personnel

12.40 My Drogo

1.15 Editeur Du Gite

1.50 Fusil Raffles (nap)

2.25 Gelino Bello

3.00 Song For Someone

3.35 Martello Sky

GIMCRACK

12.05 Message Personnel

12.40 My Drogo

1.15 Notre Pari

1.50 Midnight Shadow (nap)

2.25 Gelino Bello

3.00 Song For Someone (nb)

3.35 Hotter Than Hell

NORTHERNER - 1.50 Midnight Shadow (nb)

DONCASTER

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

11.50 Kicksaftersix

12.20 Stepney Causeway

12.55 Threeunderthrufive

1.30 Shantou Sunset

2.05 Sonigino (nb)

2.40 Magistrato

3.15 Mance Rayder

GIMCRACK

11.50 Gredin

12.20 Sao

12.55 Threeunderthrufive

1.30 Jersey Lady

2.05 Tommy’s Oscar

2.40 Knight Salute

3.15 Fidux

NORTHERNER - 2.05 Tommy ’s Oscar (nap)

HEREFORD

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

12.12 Velasco

12.47 World Of Dreams

1.22 Kapga De Lily

1.57 Bold Plan

2.32 Can You Call

3.07 Vee Dancer

3.42 Bo Kaap

GIMCRACK

12.12 Ebony Gale

12.47 Mojito Royale

1.22 Kapga De Lily

1.57 Seddon

2.32 Hardy Du Seuil

3.07 Terrierman

3.42 Bo Kaap

WOLVERHAMPTON

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

4.15 Billy Roberts

4.45 Diamond Jill

5.15 Socially Shady

5.45 Peintre D’etoiles

6.15 Quick Change

6.45 Bankrupt

7.15 Muscika

7.45 Some Nightmare

GIMCRACK

4.15 Dundory

4.45 Rania

5.15 Socially Shady

5.45 Roman Dynasty

6.15 Quick Change

6.45 Bankrupt

7.15 Night Narcissus

7.45 Some Nightmare

NEWCASTLE

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

1.45 Victoriano

2.20 Island Brave

2.55 Shake A Leg

3.30 Straits Of Moyle

4.00 Franz Strauss

4.30 Spartan Fighter

5.00 Birkenhead

5.30 Whiteandblue

GIMCRACK

1.45 Victoriano

2.20 Coltrane

2.55 Three Platoon

3.30 Luxor Flush

4.00 Nolton Cross

4.30 Going Underground

5.00 Birkenhead

5.30 Sweet Mist

NEWMARKET - 4.00 Franz Strauss (nb); 5.30 Trois Vallees (nap).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-11-2021, 02:48 PM

Fair Grounds Pick 4 play for Dec. 11
John Mucciolo

Fair Grounds will play host to Louisiana Champions Day on Saturday, when seven black-type events for Cajun-bred runners will highlight a massive card. A Pick 4 scheduled early in the card, capped by the most lucrative event on the slate, is the sequence that intrigues me most.
Race 5 – Ladies Distaff

The 1 1/16-mile affair on the dirt attracted a manageable field of five. I am not sure how classy #4 Winning Romance (5-1) is for Bret Calhoun, but the sophomore has been facing open company of late and she looks like the controlling speed in the field. First Samurai filly looms a threat to lead at every call at a nice price.

#3 Net A Bear (7-5) rolls in with three stakes tallies in succession, and the morning-line choice will be the major one to hold off late in this affair. Awesome Bet mare will be motoring home in the lane under Thornton.
Race 6 – Allowance/Optional Claiming

A field of 10 fillies and mares will go about one mile on the green in a tough race to narrow down for me. I can’t find a lot of separation between the morning-line choice and the longshots, so the ‘all’ button will be implemented in leg 2.
Race 7 – Ladies Sprint

Fillies and mares will dash six panels on the main strip in the third leg of the sequence. I see a pair of standouts in the heat and will include both of the talented ladies. #3 Cilla (6-5) has been on a roll of late for Brinkman, with a trio of stakes victories coming from her last four assignments. A fine winner of the Prioress S. (G2) at Saratoga two back, the daughter of California Chrome was a strong third in the Raven Run S. (G2) at Keeneland in her most recent endeavor.

The once-beaten #5 Ova Charged (7-5) was a very nice runner-up in the Victory Ride S. (G3) at Belmont Park in July, and she returned with a dominant allowance win locally to prepare for Saturday. I can’t see another in the cast upsetting this formidable duo.
Race 8 – Classic

The finale attracted a field of eight, and I will go two deep to conclude my play. #8 Highland Creek (6-1) is my upset selection for conditioner Bret Calhoun. Sophomore son of Broken Vow has always flashed ability and seems poised for a breakthrough in this spot at a fair number.

#3 Pound for Pound (5-2) has been consistently good over the past year, and the Redding Colliery gelding loves the Fair Grounds surface. The six-year-old will be forcing the pace from the opening bell with Aubrie Green in the stirrups.
Wager

50-cent Pick 4: 3,4 with all with 3,5 with 3,8 ($40)

Good Luck!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-11-2021, 03:03 PM

Equibase Analysis: 12-1 On The Morning Line, Officiating Looks Very Tough In Mr. Prospector Stakes
Sponsored by:
by Ellis Starr | 12.09.2021 | 4:13pm
Officiating wins the Bear's Den Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

Saturday's Grade 3, $100,000 Mr. Prospector Stakes at Gulfstream Park drew a field of seven sprinters running seven furlongs in an intriguing race: not one of the group has finished in the top three in a graded stakes in 2021. That being said, three horses enter the race having either won their most recent race or the one just prior to that.

Dennis' Moment is one of the two in the former group, having won at the seven furlong distance in his most recent race and with a previous graded stakes win in his career as he captured the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes in the fall of 2019.
Officiating won at this distance one race before last, the win coming in the non-graded Bear's Den Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
Doc Amster won last month at Gulfstream Park at the shorter distance of six furlongs and is trying this seven furlong trip for the first time.
Then there's Endorsed, with the highest career earnings in the field at $455,375. His best effort at this level came when second in the Grade 3 Westchester Stakes in June of last year, and he enters the Mr. Prospector Stakes off a fast closing third place effort in his most recent start.
Poppy's Pride won four in a row between September and December of last year but has run poorly in two starts since returning from an eight month layoff in September.
Wind of Change (BRZ) finished fourth in last year's Mr. Prospector and enters this year's race off a runner-up finish two months ago.
Flap Jack rounds out the field, not having won in nine races since June, 2020 and still eligible to run in a second level allowance race.

Main win contenders:

Officiating took seven tries to earn his first win, doing so on turf this past March. Following his maiden win and after missing by a neck in a non-graded stakes race on turf and a mediocre third place effort on dirt, he was privately transferred to the barn of trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. Then, after fourth and third place finishes on turf, Officiating was entered in the Bear's Den Stakes, scheduled for turf, but stayed in the race which was moved to dirt due to weather, earning a career best 110 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure and winning authoritatively by three and one-half lengths.

In his most recent race and following the Bear's Den, Officiating tried the Tapeta all-weather surface and two-turns in the Showing Up Stakes last month and ran poorly, demonstrating only he did not like the surface nor the distance. Cutting back to the distance of the Bear's Den while moving back to the surface of that race, it can be assumed Officiating can duplicate his effort in that race which is good enough to win. There is also little doubt about his being able to run as well considering his last two workouts on dirt coming into the race have been excellent.

Dennis' Moment was thought to be a top 2-year-old in the summer of 2019 following his 19 length win in July with a 106 ™ figure, virtually unheard of for a young two year old. He won the Iroquois Stakes two months later but after finishing last of eight in that year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Stakes he was given time off to mature. When returning in the Fountain of Youth Stakes last February, 2020, Dennis' Moment was sent to post as the heavy favorite but finished 10th and last.

Rested another nine months, he ran poorly one year ago and was again given time off. This time the rest helped greatly as Dennis' Moment missed by a head in a six furlong sprint. Two races later in October, Dennis' Moment earned his first win in 25 months in a highly rated race at Keeneland at the distance of the Mr. Prospector, duplicating the 106 figure earned in the summer of 2019. With logical improvement off that effort in his fourth start off the rest and at the same distance of his last effort, Dennis' Moment has every right to earn a graded stakes win for the second time in his career.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Doc Amster (103), Endorsed (110), Flap Jack (101), Poppy's Pride (97) and Wind of Change (BRZ) (114).

Win Contenders, in preference order:

Officiating
Dennis' Moment

Mr. Prospector Stakes – Grade 3
Race 10 at Gulfstream Park
Saturday, December 11 – Post Time 4:32 PM E.T.
Seven Furlongs
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $100,000

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-11-2021, 03:05 PM

Betting with, and against, Adventuring in the My Charmer Stakes
John Mucciolo

An overflow field of 14 fillies and mares will travel 1 1/16 miles on the All-Weather surface at Turfway Park in Saturday’s $100,000 My Charmer S. Godolphin homebred #5 Adventuring (2-1) is the one to beat in the affair for conditioner Brad Cox.

By Pioneerof the Nile, the three-year-old filly has compiled some excellent results this campaign, with a victory in the lucrative Dueling Grounds Oaks being the headliner. The Kentucky-bred was a smart third at Keeneland last time out in the grassy Valley View S. (G3), and her best effort will make her super tough to knock off on Saturday.

Adventuring also rolled home a convincing winner of the Bourbonette Oaks in her lone prior outing on the Turfway Park All-Weather surface. Joe Talamo will guide the talented and versatile morning-line choice.

An intriguing longshot in my opinion is #3 Ask Bailey (20-1). Trained by John Ortiz, the daughter of Run Away and Hide has a hint of class to her and could be any kind while making her synthetic debut on Saturday. The four-year-old, who brought $255,000 at the 2021 Keeneland November sale, is not overly consistent but is quite capable of running big from off the pace on her best day.

#11 Art of Almost (4-1) has excellent experience on the All-Weather and wouldn’t be a surprise for Mark Casse. The Dansili five-year-old looked the part when bagging the Ontario Matron S. (G3) at Woodbine two back, and the mare will stalk the pace early before putting in her best run in the lane in this affair. Rafael Bejarano has the assignment.

#9 Fate Factor (15-1) has run well in two of her three lifetime tries on the synthetic and offers very good value for the vertical exotics. The Chris Block pupil has come to hand nicely as of late and could factor in the stretch with slight improvement off of her most recent endeavor beneath Joe Rocco.
Adventuring – With

$20 exacta 5 with 11 ($20)
$10 exacta 5 with 3, 9 ($20)
$2 trifecta key 5 with 3, 9, 11 ($12)

Adventuring – Against

30-cent superfecta 3, 9, 11 with 3, 5, 9, 11 with 3, 5, 9, 11 with all ($48.60)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-11-2021, 03:05 PM

Gulfstream: How to bet the Mr. Prospector Stakes
John Mucciolo

An intriguing field of seven will go postward in Saturday’s $100,000 Mr. Prospector S. (G3) at Gulfstream Park. The seven-furlong tilt on the main surface pits a well-matched cast of talented sprinters in the one-turn feature.
Mr. Prospector S. Wagers

$30 exacta 2 with 4 ($30)
$10 exacta 4 with 2 ($10)

Bet Gulfstream Park Live Racing here!

I will give top billing to #2 Wind of Change, who is the inside pace of the race. One of two in the field for trainer Saffie Joseph, the bay son of Forestry has shown some improvement since moving to this barn In March, finishing first or second in four of his five races since the move.

The fleet Brazilian-bred led until late stretch in this race last year before finishing fourth at a huge 39-1, and while we won’t get that same price on Saturday, I still think that he may offer a hint of value in a field lacking a standout. A pair of recent bullet morning drills, combined with the presence of jockey Edgard Zayas, are also appealing to me.

#4 Endorsed has finished in the top three in six of his last eight outings and is an ideal exotics player for trainer Mike Maker. The five-year-old son of Medaglia d’Oro has been running with some top competition this season and makes a lot of sense with his best performance on Saturday. The Kentucky-bred has never missed the board on this oval.

I think that the contest will come down to the aforementioned duo, as I have issues with the other contenders in the contest.

#1 Flap Jack is unproven with stakes foes on the surface, and his lone win on the dirt came over an ‘off’ oval.

#3 Poppy’s Pride had a very good juvenile season, but the Michael Yates trainee is yet to build upon his 2020 accomplishments.

Grade 3 victor #5 Dennis’ Moment has obvious ability and comes off a sharp allowance win, but the Dale Romans pupil lacks consistency overall.

#6 Doc Amster led throughout on the oval most recently but will not enjoy such an advantageous trip on Saturday. Midshipman colt would be a surprise on this occasion.

#7 Officiating is unproven, in my eyes, on a fast dirt surface against this caliber of horses.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-11-2021, 03:05 PM

Free Winners for Saturday, December 11th 2021 from THE LEGEND!
FREE HORSE PICKS
CHARLES TOWN
RACE #7
TIME: 10:02 PM EST
PICK: BET #4 Run to Daylight 5/2 odds to win @ Bovada

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-11-2021, 03:15 PM

Oaklawn: Exotics plays for Poinsettia Stakes on Dec. 11
John Mucciolo

A talented field of seven sophomores will go postward in the $150,000 Poinsettia S. at Oaklawn Park. The 1 1/16-mile Saturday feature is led by Arkansas Derby (G1) star #4 Super Stock (9-5), who is sure to take a bunch of money at the windows, but I feel that the son of Dialed In will be overbet and that he is worth trying to beat at a small price.
Poinsettia Wagers

$1 trifecta box 1, 2, 3, 4 ($24)
$1 superfecta box 1, 2, 3, 4 ($24)
$2 exacta key box 1 with 2, 3, 4 ($12)

Bet Oaklawn Park Live Racing here!

#1 Last Samurai (5-1) went close when second in the 1 1/2-mile Greenwood Cup S. (G3) at Parx two back, prior to checking in third in a strong allowance tilt at 10 panels at Churchill Downs most recently. The chestnut son of Malibu Moon has shown solid progression during the second half of the season and appears to be sitting on a big race with a further cutback in distance here.

The Dallas Stewart pupil is not the swiftest horse in the early portion of his races but he lands in a spot with a good amount of early tempo in the field, which will aid his late kick. The Kentucky-bred chestnut will be included in all of my vertical gimmicks at a square number. Jon Court will be in the stirrups.

#3 Flash of Mischief (5-2), who has registered stakes victories in two of his last three races, is an obvious contender for Karl Broberg. The bay son of Into Mischief has speed, consistency, and an affinity for the distance. Bred in Kentucky, the bay colt will be a major factor every step of the way with Ramon Vazquez in the stirrups.

Super Stock can’t be ignored for trainer Asmussen. The overachieving bay is proven at Oaklawn Park when defeating a strong field here in the spring, and a top effort will make the sophomore especially difficult to keep out of the top three on Saturday. Luis Contreras inherits the ride.

The Tom Amoss-trained #2 Defeater (3-1) is long on talent but failed in his only try in the stakes ranks when sixth in the Oklahoma Derby (G3). Outside that race, the Union Rags colt has displayed a potent turn of foot on occasion, and if he can duplicate that burst going two turns against this field, he will be very dangerous inside the final furlong for Ricardo Santana.

Saturday 12/11/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Saturday 12/11/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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