Service Plays Saturday 12/11/21

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[dawggy]

KYLE ANTHONY


Game: (24449) Miranda Maverick at (24450) Erin Blanchfield
Date/Time: Dec 11 2021 10:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Miranda Maverick -135


Recency bias from Miranda Mavericks' last bout pushed odds closer than they should be. So let's dive into how that fight played out… In the last bout, she faced a very tough-up Maycee Barber in which Miranda outstruck her 2 to 1 in the first two rounds, including some grappling success throughout the fight. Nearing the end of round 2, the live line had Maverick a very large favorite at -700. Even with round 3 slightly close somehow Miranda was on the losing end, but clearly, she earned the W. This loss is providing value on a fighter I'm pinning as a future title challenger. With that said, she's evolving her game from a power grappler to well rounded MMA fighter. This was a big step in the right direction although in a losing effort. Even more impressive was her victory over high-level grappler Gillian Robertson, in which Miranda out grappled Gillian all 3 rounds winning via decision. It appears she's putting it all together.
On the other side is Erin Blanchfield who's 22 years old (Maverick 24 years old) coming off a UFC debut win. Yes, it was complete domination of Sarah Alpar winning via unanimous decision. But let's be real… Sarah Alpar made a low level Jessica-Rose Clark look like a world-beater. Now I'm not saying Blanchfield isn't talented, but the level of opponents each has faced is different as Miranda's squared off against a much higher brand of talent.
Overall I'd absolutely give Maverick the advantage on the feet or in grappling exchanges. Anywhere this fight goes I'm comfortable in her ability and offensive attacks. Yet, the biggest advantage for her …will be strength. No doubt Maverick possesses the strength advantage in this match-up and expects any in tight situations for her to win. Her power inside clinching exchanges with the ability to muscle opponents down will earn her rounds and be a massive difference maker throughout the fight. In WMMA the most lethal weapon any female can have is takedowns. This is where I believe Miranda will find success. If their ground games nullify each other out, I believe Miranda finds the openings on the iffy striking defense of Blanchfield. Also, add in the fact it's a step down in competition level for Miranda while it's the toughest test Blanchfield faced in her career. I'd cap this line closer to -200, so at the current line of -135 provides a ton of value on a fighter who is better everywhere.

• This was written prior to props being released. There should be a ton of value on Maverick via decision as neither of these ladies has been finished since being a pro.

4% Play: Miranda Maverick (-135)

[rocky57]

Pickswise Sports

CFB
1* Navy +7.5
1* Under 34.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kyle Anthony Full UFC Card

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Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Dec 12 Kyle Anthony 5% [MMA] (24417) Geoff Neal at (24418) Santiago Ponzinibbio

Time: 1:00 AM EST Santiago Ponzinibbio -110
Analysis:
In a main card bout Santiago Ponzinibbio faces Geoff Neal…

When breaking this fight down there's one vulnerability Geoff Neal displays… an inability walking opponents down correctly. Neil has a aggressive style backed by knockout power and pressure. Many opponents in the past have obliged Neil in that pursuit by entering a fire fight toe to toe. That's exactly what Neil seeks and those that move working from range find success. Guys like Frank Camacho, Niko Price and Mike Perry LOVE brawls and willing to engage. In his last 2 bouts, both in losing performances, opponents displayed how one demential Neil can be. Against Stephen Thompson and Neil Magny, Geoff was flat footed and unable to manage distance keeping him wildly firing shots from the outside. Not only that, …but he was so out of rhythm Neil's output would massively decline.

While Santiago Ponzinibbio presents a fantastic style to counter the heavy handed Geoff Neil. One advantage I'd give him is the simple fact this'll be in the normal size UFC cage. That extra space will help Santiago freely move around the cage as Neil presses forward allowing openings to counter and not getting smothered up against the fence. The straight line at which Neil pushes forward will be his downfall. Santiago has the boxing to match if not surpass Neil when it comes to hand speed. Finding range will be difficult all fight as Ponzi mixes in leg kicks. The overthrowing of power shots by Neil leaves him to win only by knockout, while Pozninibbio is more technical staying away from the big shots utilizing his faster hand speed. One of the biggest reasons I'm against Neil is his cardio dump early in fights. If he doesn't land the bomb early, I expect Santiago to have his way with him in the long run. The overthrowing will drain Neil's gas tank as well as forcing him out of position to be countered. Furthermore, over the last 2 fights Neil's appeared unmotivated with low striking output even in fights he's outright losing late which makes me question his mind frame. This could be confirmed as on Nov 25th Geoff was arrested for DWI and unlawfully carrying a weapon. This is all bad signs for a guy about to go into one of the biggest fights of his life. While Ponzinibbio has been vocal about being razor focus for a title run.

At a pick'em price on a guy I believe should be the clear favorite with all the tools… plenty of value and worth a 5% graded best bet.



5% Play: Santiago Ponzinibbio (-110)



Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Dec 12 Kyle Anthony 3% [MMA] (24453) Eryk Anders at (24454) Andre Muniz

Time: 1:00 AM EST Andre Muniz -135
Analysis:
In a main card bout, Andre Muniz faces Eryk Anders…

Both of these gentlemen possess grappling ability and comfort level in these situations. The biggest difference for me is the much higher level ground game of Muniz. Anders does have a wrestling background in which his strength and athletic ability gave him an edge. That athleticism assisted in those grappling exchanges but thats not something that'll work against Muniz. If Anders wants to take the fight to the ground he'll be dealing with Muniz consistantly submission hunting. In my opinion that could nullify one of Anders biggest weapons making him uncomfortable all fight long. On the feet Anders mostly sticks with power overhands hoping to land the big shot. That's actually a negative for two reasons: For one once he missed it'll open up windows for Muniz to level change. Those wild strikes and overly pursuing Muniz should provide takedown opportunities. But the 2nd reason its negative is it'll drain his cardio. Anders already has an iffy gas tank and overthrowing with all his power behind it will wear on him as fight goes on. Add in the fact that Eryk is also coming into this fight on short notice without a full training camp I don't believe he'll be in 100% fight ready shape. So if Muniz does find success via the takedown, Anders will be running on E quickly. Plus with Muniz 3 inch reach advantage and being a big middleweight, I like everything that Muniz brings to the table. Surprised this line isn't wider so I'm very comfortable playing this number.



Play: Andre Muniz (-135)

Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Dec 12 Kyle Anthony 3% [MMA] (24401) Charles Oliveira at (24402) Dustin Poirier

Time: 1:00 AM EST Charles Oliveira +140
Analysis:
In the main event of UFC 269, Charles Oliveira defends his title against Dustin Poirier…

It's absolutely impressive the elite level fighters Dustin Poirier faced. Guys like Khabib, Conor McGregor, Max Holloway and Justin Gaethje to name a few. His rise up the ranks is impressive indeed but there's one clear path for the reigning champion Charles Oliveira… grappling. No doubt Dustin is well rounded, but Charles has a top level ground game and an elite level submission finisher is a lot to overcome. Dustin's stood toe to toe with warriors but many of which don't offer up the versatility in all areas of MMA, while Oliveira presents a tough puzzle to figure out. Of course we all know his ground game credentials, …but whats getting overlooked is his continued elevation and fine tuning his striking skills. This blend of both worlds puts opponents into uncomfortable positions worrying about level changes or getting hold of a limb clinching. This mix opens striking on the feet as opponents worry about defending takedowns.

Over Oliveira's last 9 wins 8 of which came by way of finish inside the distance. (5 by submission and 3 via knockout) Only one was Tony Ferguson making it to the final bell, but Charles won all 3 rounds and completely dominated Ferguson winning via decision. What stood out the most when capping this fight was Charles most recent win over Michael Chandler. Although early Chandler had success, I liked seeing Charles overcome early adversity taking big shots. Yet in round 2 Oliveira dropped and finished Chandler in that round. As we just saw recently Gaethje vs Chandler, it's not easy putting Chandler away as he lasted all 3 rounds in a total all out war. That's definitely a feather in the cap of the current champion. Stylistically speaking, besides for Dustin's fantastic boxing and high durability Charles should feel very comfortable exchanging in the pocket. The added layer for Dustin worrying that one takedown could lead to a fight ending sequence will be in the back of his head. The slight timidness could cost him during split second decisions. I believe Charles can handle himself on the feet allowing him to seek level changes or controlling positioning. If Dan Hooker can take Dustin down, I'm sure Charles can and will.

No way should the current champion be a dog in this spot. I'd cap this closer to even or Charles a slight favorite. With that said, give me the champion at +140 with more weapons, more paths to victory and the opportunistic submission hunter.



Play: Charles Oliveira (+140)



Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Dec 11 Kyle Anthony 4% [MMA] (24449) Miranda Maverick at (24450) Erin Blanchfield

Time: 10:00 PM EST Miranda Maverick -135
Analysis:


In a preliminary bout, Miranda Maverick faces Erin Blanchfield…

We're taking advantage of a mispriced line.

Recency bias from Miranda Mavericks' last bout pushed odds closer than they should be. So let's dive into how that fight played out… In the last bout, she faced a very tough-up Maycee Barber in which Miranda outstruck her 2 to 1 in the first two rounds, including some grappling success throughout the fight. Nearing the end of round 2, the live line had Maverick a very large favorite at -700. Even with round 3 slightly close somehow Miranda was on the losing end, but clearly, she earned the W. This loss is providing value on a fighter I'm pinning as a future title challenger. With that said, she's evolving her game from a power grappler to well rounded MMA fighter. This was a big step in the right direction although in a losing effort. Even more impressive was her victory over high-level grappler Gillian Robertson, in which Miranda out grappled Gillian all 3 rounds winning via decision. It appears she's putting it all together.

On the other side is Erin Blanchfield who's 22 years old (Maverick 24 years old) coming off a UFC debut win. Yes, it was complete domination of Sarah Alpar winning via unanimous decision. But let's be real… Sarah Alpar made a low level Jessica-Rose Clark look like a world-beater. Now I'm not saying Blanchfield isn't talented, but the level of opponents each has faced is different as Miranda's squared off against a much higher brand of talent.

Overall I'd absolutely give Maverick the advantage on the feet or in grappling exchanges. Anywhere this fight goes I'm comfortable in her ability and offensive attacks. Yet, the biggest advantage for her …will be strength. No doubt Maverick possesses the strength advantage in this match-up and expects any in tight situations for her to win. Her power inside clinching exchanges with the ability to muscle opponents down will earn her rounds and be a massive difference maker throughout the fight. In WMMA the most lethal weapon any female can have is takedowns. This is where I believe Miranda will find success. If their ground games nullify each other out, I believe Miranda finds the openings on the iffy striking defense of Blanchfield. Also, add in the fact it's a step down in competition level for Miranda while it's the toughest test Blanchfield faced in her career. I'd cap this line closer to -200, so at the current line of -135 provides a ton of value on a fighter who is better everywhere.



This was written prior to props being released. There should be a ton of value on Maverick via decision as neither of these ladies has been finished since being a pro.


4% Play: Miranda Maverick (-135)

Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Dec 12 Kyle Anthony 2% [MMA] (24441) Dan Ige at (24442) Josh Emmett

Time: 1:00 AM EST Josh Emmett -150
Analysis:
In the featured fight on the prelims, Josh Emmett faces Dan Ige…

All week leading up to today money has been coming in on Dan Ige pushing this line down to -150 and as it was around -200.

Now is the time to place my wager on Josh Emmett…

There's a lot of question marks and suspect wins over Dan Ige's last 5 fights. Over that span going 3-2, …but lets break this down further. Recent lost to Chan Sung Jung in which Ige looked terrible and out of rhythm on a guy will slower combinations and less footwork then Josh Emmett. The other loss was against Calvin Kattar where he was out boxed most of the fight, …but the wins are where it appears suspect. KO'ing Gavin Tucker with a lucky punch in round 1, but ok I'll give that to him. Many point to Ige's win over high level kick boxer Edson Barboza, but this is another spot MMA judging got completely wrong as Edon clearly controlled the action, yet Ige was awarded the victory. Even recently Ige admitted he lost this bout. Prior to that he defeated Mirsad Bektic via splt decision and at the time Bektic was looked at as a rising talent in the division, but his career never really panned out going 0-3 in last 3 cage appearances. Furthermore Bektic announced his retirement from the sport after another recent loss. All things considered, Dan Ige could be 1-4 in last 5 cage appearances with one being the 22 second KO win over Tucker in a wild exchange.

On the other side is Josh Emmett who has all the tools to out land or knockout Ige Saturday night. Currently on a 5-1 run with 3 wins coming by way of KO, but what stood out most when capping this fight is Emmett's recent win against a very tough Shane Burgos last year. Not only did Josh win via decision but in their first exchange he blew out his knee shredding his ACL. That was early round one and we all know Josh is tough, but he fought 3 hard rounds against Shane out landing him and even dropped him in round 3. Add in the 5 inch reach advantage for Shane against Emmett on one leg, literally one leg and comes out on top?? Wow. Thats extremely impressive showing and believe many are wagering on Ige due to the ACL recovery. All signs indicate Josh is back 100% and he's even stated his repaired knee is stronger then his other leg due to rehab.

With that said, Emmett is known for his power but whats getting overlooked is his quick developing combinations getting those big shots there. Backing those heavy bombs with faster hand speed is how he's landed the KO shots on opponents. Add in his underrated footwork which is fantastic bouncing around the cage continues to throw off opponents. Both guys have wrestling but I'd give Josh the advantage there as well as the strength. Over last few fights we've seen guys with lesser power drop Ige or flash knock down him yet able to recover. His chin will be there to be hit and I think Emmett finds the bomb. Against Josh Emmett… if he lands one clean one its night night.

Now that this line has come down providing value at a discounted price from -200 to -150, …I'm on it and worthy of a client play wager.



Play: Josh Emmett (-150)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football Jesus ARMY NAVY over the total

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Greg Shaker

2 Army/Navy U36

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Doug Upstone

4* Navy Over 34.5
3* Army -7

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Allen Eastman

6* Army Over 34.5

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Scott Spreitzer

3* Arsenal -150

[rocky57]

Pickswise Sports

CBB - Afternoon Update
All 2* Plays
BYU -5
Syracuse -146 ML
Wisconsin/Ohio State Over 135.5
Arkansas +2
LSU -8
Michigan/Minnesota Over 134

NHL 3* Best Bets
Tampa Bay -205
St Louis -195

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ocal Sports

NCAAB
Western Michigan @ Detroit Under 142
South Dakota State vs Washington State Over 157.5
Arizona @ Illinois Over 152.5
Houston @ Alabama Over 145.5
Idaho +13

NHL
Toronto -1.5

[citybeat]

Exterminator NBA system bet for today:

• Golden State Warriors {A} bet - Unofficial series (best road record filter). Buy 3 points on the spread at no worse than -170 odds if they are underdogs. Take the money line if they're favorites. If the {A} bet does not win, please double up on the {B} bet by taking them again on 12/13. The potential {C} bet is on 12/14.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

lewaticket eu

Manchester City – Wolves : M.City -2 @ 1.90
Udinese – AC Milan : AC Milan @ 1.88

Total Odds : 3.57

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under2goals uk

SCOTLAND: Championship
Morton – Inverness
Under 2 AH @ 2.00

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Greg Peterson Newsletter Best Bets

UC Santa Barbara vs St. Mary’s Under 129

Missouri +22.5 vs Kansas

Minnesota +14.5 vs Michigan

Old Dominion vs VCU Over 115.5

Alabama -1.5 vs Houston


Updated Record 91-66-3