Tuesday 12/14/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-14-2021, 09:31 AM

Monday Myths: Do NYRA Snowbirds Rule Gulfstream Early?

December 13, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

New York runners have the Gulfstream Park advantage as the snow birds head south for winter.

Background:

December’s shift from north to south makes Gulfstream Park the place to be not only for the Floridians, but New York and Kentucky shippers as well. Most horseplayers consider the NYRA runners the class of the snowbirds and stronger than the year-‘round locals in South Florida. Let’s put the numbers against that.

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database for December results at Gulfstream Park to see where the early season winners came from. Once we get into the New Year, the majority of starters will already have relocated and had a start locally. The early season barometer will be looked at not only for which circuits horses came from, but also at the various class levels to assess strength. I used the past 3 years (2018, 2019, 2020 and opening week of the 2021 Championship Meet). For NYRA shippers, they are horses who last raced at Aqueduct, Belmont or Saratoga; Kentucky shippers last raced at Churchill, Keeneland, Turfway, Kentucky Downs or Ellis Park; Florida locals last raced at Gulfstream or Gulfstream West.

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In all races, NYRA shippers won 17.5% with an $0.88 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.
In all races, Kentucky shippers won 18.1% with an $1.08 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.
In all races, Florida locals won 10.0% with an $0.73 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.

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In maiden claimers, NYRA shippers won 18.2% with an $0.84 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.
In maiden claimers, Kentucky shippers won 27.2% with an $1.55 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.
In maiden claimers, Florida locals won 9.6% with an $0.80 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.

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In maiden special weights, NYRA shippers won 19.5% with an $1.16 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.
In maiden special weights, Kentucky shippers won 17.8% with an $0.89 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.
In maiden special weights, Florida locals won 6.2% with an $0.52 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.

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In claiming races, NYRA shippers won 15.4% with an $0.78 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.
In claiming races, Kentucky shippers won 13.8% with an $0.55 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.
In claiming races, Florida locals won 11.4% with an $0.73 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.

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In allowance races, NYRA shippers won 21.2% with an $0.81 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.
In allowance races, Kentucky shippers won 17.9% with an $0.73 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.
In allowance races, Florida locals won 10.1% with an $0.69 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.

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In stakes races, NYRA shippers won 14.2% with an $0.84 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.
In stakes races, Kentucky shippers won 15.3% with an $1.49 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.
In stakes races, Florida locals won 5.4% with an $0.39 ROI at Gulfstream Park in December since 2018.

Overall Findings:

The NY and KY raiders won at a higher percentage than the locals at every class level in our study with gaps anywhere from 2-17%. The Florida locals were most competitive in the claiming ranks. NYRA shippers rated best in 4 of the 6 class categories, while Kentucky led 2 – but Kentucky had the best win rate overall blended among the classes, thanks to total dominance in the maiden claiming ranks.

Bottom line:

The snowbirds absolutely have the edge, but it’s Kentucky on equal or better footing overall than NYRA when it comes to December at Gulfstream.

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, see which trainers have had the most snowbird success this time of year at Gulfstream.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-14-2021, 09:35 AM

Today’s Free Horse Picks – Tuesday, December 14th 2021
By Reggie Garrett

We have 4 tracks on Tuesday, December 14th, 2021. Reggie Garrett has his picks for each race at Turf Paradise, Parx and more. Good luck and enjoy!

BET LIVE RACING 7 NIGHTS A WEEK!

Mahoning Valley – 12:45 ET
Race 1: 5 Tamanrassett
Race 2: 6 First Citizen
Race 3: 2 Sanibel
Race 4: 2 Adventure Land
Race 5: 1 Poolside Coctails
Race 6: 3 Bay Magic
Race 7: 4 Ohio Player
Race 8: 7 What a Rush

BET LIVE RACING 7 NIGHTS A WEEK!

Mountaineer – 7:00 ET
Race 1: 2 Sugar Britches
Race 2: 6 Ola Que Tal
Race 3: 3 Dondada
Race 4: 2 Thalia’s Song
Race 5: 1 Lucky Tuesday
Race 6: 5 Halo’s Dance
Race 7: 7 Strikeitortapit
Race 8: 6 Quest of Glory

BET LIVE RACING 7 NIGHTS A WEEK!

Parx – 12:10 ET
Race 1: 2 Vibrancy
Race 2: 6 Artistic Reason
Race 3: 6 Far Mo Power
Race 4: 2 Blue Paynt
Race 5: 1 Just a Thought
Race 6: 7 She’s a Fast One
Race 7: 8 Colour Guard
Race 8: 5 Loose Ends
Race 9: 8 Platinum Ice
Race 10: 8 Muchacho Macho

BET LIVE RACING 7 NIGHTS A WEEK!

Turf Paradise – 12:40 MT
Race 1: 3 Gray Admiral
Race 2: 1 Club Mesquite
Race 3: 6 Greenbrier
Race 4: 4 Bullet Times
Race 5: 5 Raofthesun
Race 6: 9 Naughty Swagger
Race 7: 9 Six Point Rack
Race 8: 1 Willtobelucky

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-14-2021, 09:44 AM

Best Horse Racing Bets for Tuesday, December 14, 2021
By J.W. Paine in Horse Racing

Plenty of longer-odds moneymakers in my picks for Tuesday for selected races at Mahoning Valley Race Course, Mountaineer Racetrack, and Turf Paradise.

Sure, I had to agree with the morning line for all three races I assessed at Turf Paradise, but I found some third and fourth-favored likelies at Mahoning Valley—not to mention a 5/1 sleeper at Mountaineer

You can check out the full rosters for all the races at our best horseracing wagering sites.

Good luck!
My Tuesday Picks for Mahoning Valley Race Course

We’ll begin on the main track with race two, a one mile and 70 yards allowance race for three-year-old’s and upward. I’m buying a win ticket on the morning-line’s third-favored (at 3/1),f Historically, piloted by Malcolm Franklin.

This three-year-old gelding finished in the money for 15 nine of his 15 career starts, winning five, including the Daniel Stearns Cleveland Gold Cup Stakes at Thistledown in June. He’s doing even better this year, with five money finishes in eight starts, four of them wins. In this seven-horse field, he’ll do.

Regularly ranked among the top 100 trainers since 2008, Timothy E. Hamm trains Historically for owners/breeders WinStar Farm LLC and Blazing Meadows Farm LLC. Hamm has put Franklin the irons for Historically’s last three races, including the stakes victory in June.

Race four is a six-furlong starter allowance run on the main track for Ohio-bred fillies and mares three years old and upward. I’m betting on the fourth-favored (at 6/1) Drumbeg, with Luciano Hernandez aboard.
This five-year-old mare finished nine of her 17 career starts in the money, winning eight. She finished half of her eight 2021 races in the winner’s circle. And it doesn’t hurt that Hernandez is having the best year of his career.

Ramon Salcedo trains Drumbeg for Campos Family Ventures LLC.

For race seven—a six-furlong claiming race for Ohio-bred three-year-olds and upward—I’m betting my two dollars on the 8/5 morning-line favorite, Reanimate, with Jose A. Bracho in the irons.

This eight-year-old gelding finished in the money for 36 of his 57 career starts, winning 14. He’s been working his way out of a slump after his best year (2017), but in this seven-horse field, he’s a star.

Raquel A. Castro trains Reanimate for owner Barbara Madrigal.
Tuesday Picks for Mountaineer Racetrack

Let’s start on the main track with race five, a six-furlong allowance race for fillies and mares three years old and upward that have never won three races (West Virginia-bred races not considered in eligibility). My money’s on the 2/1 morning-line favorite, Shastaloo, with Maclovio Enriquez Jr. aboard.

This three-year-old filly moneyed nine of her 15 career starts, winning two. Notably, she finished third at Evangeline in the Spotted Horse Stakes in August. Her record says she’s the statistical leader in this eight-horse field, and she also has the advantage of her jockey’s apprentice weight allowance. All things considered; she’ll do.

Shastaloo is trained by owner Marco A. Castaneda.

Race six is a one-mile allowance race for three-year-olds and upward that have never won two races (West Virginia-bred races not considered in eligibility). I’m betting my two dollars on the 5/1 fourth-favored Sky Energy, ridden by Guillermo Rodriguez.
This six-year-old gelding finished in the money for 12 of his 22 career starts, winning three, including his very first—the 2017 Michigan Sire Stakes at Hazel Park.

Christi Flores trains Sky Energy for Energy Racing Stable LLC. Flores has tapped Rodriguez to ride Sky Energy for his last two races. By the way – Guillermo Rodriguez is having a very, very good year.

Race seven is a one-mile allowance optional claiming race for three-year-olds and upward. I like the 5/1 sleeper, High Rolling Dude, with veteran jockey Andrew R. Ramgeet aboard.

This five-year-old gelding finished 29 of his 45 career starts in the money, winning 12 of them.

High Rolling Dude is trained by owner Larry R. Reed, who has put Ramgeet in the irons for High Rolling Dude’s last five races, resulting in three seconds and two wins.
Tuesday’s Picks for Turf Paradise

For a change, let’s start with race one, a 1-1/16 miles starter optional claiming race for three-year-olds and upward. In this tightly matched six-horse race, I’m betting on the 5/2 morning-line favorite, Top of the Game, piloted by Enrique Garcia.

This eight-year-old gelding finished in the money 24 of his 50 career starts, winning 16.

Miguel L. Hernandez trains Top of the Game for Stable H. M. A. Hernandez has tapped Garcia to saddle Top of the Game for his last three races, resulting in a win, a second-place finish, and a fourth in the Luke Kruytbosch Stakes last month.

Let’s move to the turf course for race five, a five-furlong allowance optional claiming race for three-year-olds and upward. I’m agreeing with the morning line for this one and betting my money on the 2/1 favorite, Tapped to the Max, ridden by veteran jockey Daniel P. Vergara.
This three-year-old gelding moneyed nine of his 14 career starts, winning four, giving him a slight but workable statistical advantage in this nine-horse field.

Justin R. Evans trains Tapped to the Max for Gotcha Horse Stable LLC. Evans put Vergara in the irons for Tapped to the Max’s most recent run, resulting in a win.

Race eight is a one-mile claiming race on the turf course for three-year-olds and upward that have never won three races. My money’s on the 5/2 morning-line favorite, Macedonian Ruler, piloted by veteran jockey Lindey Wade.

This six-year-old gelding from Australia finished six of his ten career starts in the money, winning one, which makes him the statistical leader in this nine-horse field.

Regularly ranked among the top trainers in North America, Jeffrey Metz trains Macedonian Ruler for owners Alex Ortega Jr., and Vincent Ortega.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-14-2021, 09:45 AM

INTERSTATE RACING TIPS – DECEMBER 14TH

RSN927

With no Victorian Racing today, there’s still a raft of RSN Form Analysts bringing you all the daily racing tips across Australia.

There’s tips on all the meetings in Queensland and NSW for Tuesday the 14th of December.

Along with our Interstate Racing Tips, you’ll find Greyhound and Harness Tips, plus a full preview of every Victorian meeting, each and every day of the week with RSN927’s Expert Tipsters and race-callers.
Colin Hodges Orange Tips

Rail Position: +3.5m 500m-300m Cutaway applies
Dual Track Meeting: N
Track Type: Turf
Track Condition: Good 4
Weather: Fine

Orange, 14th December 2021

Race 1 Selections: 5,1,7,3
Race 2 Selections: 2,5,6,1
Race 3 Selections: 2,10,6,8
Race 4 Selections: 9,2,1,10
Race 5 Selections: 1,8,9,3
Race 6 Selections: 3,4,1,7
Race 7 Selections: 7,9,1,2
Howard Walter Kilkoy Tips

Rail Position: True Entire Course
Track Type: Turf
Track Condition: Soft 7
Weather: Fine

Kilcoy, 14th December 2021

Race 1 Selections:9,5,6,11
Race 2 Selections:2,1,3,5
Race 3 Selections: 3,2,1,4
Race 4 Selections:3,5,7,8
Race 5 Selections:4,10,1,9
Race 6 Selections:12,2,11,1
Race 7 Selections:4,5,10,8
Best Bet

Race 3 Number 3 Hidden Spring
Value

Race 7 Number 4 Frisco’s Image
Quaddie

Quaddie 1:3,5,7,8
Quaddie 2:1,4,9,10
Quaddie 3:1,2,11,12
Quaddie 4:4,5,10
Play Of The Day

Place All Up Race 1 Number 9 Power Punch, Race 3 Number 3 Hidden Spring, Race 4 Number 3 In Your Element, Race 5 Number 4 Atlantic Royal, Race 7 Number 4 Frisco’s Image

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-14-2021, 09:45 AM

DAILY HARNESS TIPS – DECEMBER 14TH

HRV Tips

Get the RSN Race-callers best bets and Harness Racing Tips for Shepparton on Tuesday the 14th of December.
Luke Humphreys Shepparton Tips

Shepparton, 14th December 2021

Race 1 Selections: 1-2-6-4-10
Race 2 Selections: 6-8-5-4-1
Race 3 Selections: 6-3-8-10-1
Race 4 Selections: 2*-7-1-10-6
Race 5 Selections: 9-8-7-3-2
Race 6 Selections: 10-8-3-4-6
Race 7 Selections: 7-9-3-2-8
Race 8 Selections: 6-8-10-2-1
Best Bets

Race 4 Number 2 Sounds Perfect
Best Value

Race 7 Number 7 Brutally Handsome
Quaddie

Quaddie 1:7,8,9
Quaddie 2: 10
Quaddie 3:3,7,9
Quaddie 4:6

$12 for 100%

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-14-2021, 09:46 AM

Quick Picks for December 14, 2021

Mahoning Valley Race Course
Race #1- #2 AWESOME BREAK; #4 SALT MINE TEDDY; #5 BAY DEFENSE
Race #2- #4 ORBITING THE SKY; #2 SARATOGA STYLE; #6 BEST OF YOU
Race #3- #1 LOOKS GOOD N A TUX; #5 WARRIOR’S DREAM; #2 IRISH PROUD
Race #4- #6 MISS DOGWOOD; #2 EL VALOR; #5 PRECISION PRADO
Race #5- #7 ABIGAIL LEE; #3 SURE FIRE READY; #8 BEEBLEGEE
Race #6- #6 INDY PRINCESS KOKO; #5 CHARGE IT ALL; #1 NATALIA’S TEMPLE
Race #7- #1 FAHRENHEIT; #6 RIDING IN THE WIND; #4 LOVELY HEIR
Race #8- #8 REINSURE; #6 NO TIME TO YAWN; #7 AWESOME OX

Mountaineer Race Track
Race #1- #2 GREYSHOTT; #1 ODDS AND ENDS; #8 HOT SPOT
Race #2- #4 MR. CAT; #1 FOOLISH EQUATION; #3 SILENT TIGER
Race #3- #6 BATTLE RAGS; #2 WINKING AT THEDUDE; #3 CHATTERMAN
Race #4- #2 DAILY FEATURE; #3 SWORN SILENCE; #6 CAT LAK
Race #5- #3 PERFECT PEACH; #9 JUNGLE GODDESS; #8 OVERSTATE
Race #6- #6 NOMBRE; #1 CHANGING LANES; #5 CARRIER PIGEON
Race #7- #5 TESORINA; #6 HOT DAME; #3 EGG NOG
Race #8- #8 JACKZILLA; #9 AMICUS BRIEF; #3 CENTRE STREET

Parx Racing
Race #1- #3 MUCHO MACHO EDDIE; #6 DEVINE DENTAL; #4 CHAMPERS
Race #2- #2 BESTER; #7 SCOOP DAWG; #8 RICKIE’S MELODY
Race #3- #2 HARPER; #3 GOLDENLINEOF; #1 FAST NEGOTIATIONS
Race #4- #7 QUIET PLEASE; #3 WISHES AND DREAMS; #2 SWEET LILLY FACTUM
Race #5- #3 PEYTON ELIZABETH; #8 HAY NINETEEN; #5 QUASAR
Race #6- #8 YO NESSROUNDONKERN; #9 BATON; #6 BUDDYBOYSGOTSENSE
Race #7- #1 FLASHING DIAMOND; #6 ALWAYS TALKING; #4 UNCUT
Race #8- #10 PAPER MANSION; #9 TWODOGSFOURCATS; #5 DIVINE HUNTRESS
Race #9- #5 ALRASHAKA; #9 MY THOUGHTS; #1 ALICE HARPER
Race #10- #5 PENANCE; #7 ELUSIVE RYDER; #1 FLORENCIA

Turf Paradise
Race #1- #1 RAAGHEB; #5 DYNAMIC RULER; #6 HARD TO DENY
Race #2- #6 SONGOFTHEDESERT; #2 FORTY NINE MODEL; #4 MALIBU MISTRESS
Race #3- #3 LADY LANA; #4 JUST CLASSY; #1 BOLD REY
Race #4- #2 HEAVENLY ARCH; #6 WIN LIKE COACH P; #3 CHICKS DIG MUNNY
Race #5- #1 DEWEY; #8 OUT FOR JUSTICE; #6 PAPER BOY
Race #6- #8 LIL’ NINJA; #2 SHOTGUN RIDER; #3 MIDNIGHT LUCK
Race #7- #1 JUGGLES; #10 MO GEE; #5 TIZ MANNY
Race #8- #9 BLACK OPS; #4 DUNE D'ORO; #8 AVALON KING

Zia Park
Race #1- #12 WUSHOCKER; #8 LAYNIS DIAMOND; #10 PAULS SPECIAL KNIGHT
Race #2- #10 IM LOUISIANA TOO; #6 THORLENTLESS B; #11 WICKEDNWILD EAGLE
Race #3- #7 INDEED A FAVORITE; #6 BIGG JACK; #5 QUICK TO FUSS
Race #4- #3 CLASSY MOON; #6 RZ RICHY; #7 AH MR LANA DEL RAY
Race #5- #3 DISPUTED; #7 TESTING THE WATERS; #1 BRAZILIAN SUMMER
Race #6- #4 SNIGGLE; #6 IT’S OVER DUDE; #10 AGRONOMO
Race #7- #9 MORE FIREWATER; #8 ANXIOUS INDIAN; #5 BOB'SALLWICKED
Race #8- #6 SILVER PONZI; #9 GAMBLING COWBOY; #8 AISLE RUNNER
Race #9- #5 WHERES BRAYDEN; #7 READS PET ZENON; #6 RIG RIDER
Race #10- #11 GO FOR THE LAUGH; #6 CHARLIE DYNASTY; #10 JEEPS STRIDE

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-14-2021, 09:46 AM

Today's Horse Racing Tips: Tuesday December 14th
Stephen Harris
bettingexpert Racing editor

Today’s Racing Tips – December 14th

There are 3 UK race meetings on Tuesday, with modest jumps action at Catterick and Wincanton. Both tracks could do with some rain to help field sizes, with the ground currently riding good, good to soft in places at both for declarations. There is a competitive all-weather twilight card at Newcastle, with six handicaps for punters to get stuck into from 4pm.
SELECTION Track Time (UK) Horse ODDS
DAILY NAP Wincanton 2:00PM Exmoor Express 15.0
VALUE ANGLE Wincanton 1:00PM Atholl Street 6.50

Best odds available as at 5pm December 13th 2021. Odds may now differ.
Today’s Daily Nap

Exmoor Express

Wincanton 2:00 pm

Victor Dartnall’s bumper winner has shaped with plenty of promise under negative rides in two runs so far over hurdles this season, and is expected to improve for more positive tactics at Wincanton on Wednesday. He has plenty of scope to do a lot better in time (probably over fences sooner rather than later), but should relish this speed track on decent ground
under Alan Johns.
Today’s Value Angle

Atholl Street

Wincanton 1.00 pm

Paul Nicholls winning hurdler has bumped into a couple of smart novices twice this season in small fields, racing rather freely and unable to make any impression on Rockstar Ronnie last time out. He remains with upside over fences as he settles down in the early stages, and should go really close here under Harry Cobden.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-14-2021, 09:47 AM

Robin Goodfellow's Racing Tips: Best bets for Tuesday, December 14
By Sam Turner For The Daily Mail

WINCANTON

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

12.30 Huflower

1.00 Jacamar

1.30 Earth Company (nap)

2.00 Rainyday Woman

2.30 White Moon

3.00 Electric Annie

3.30 Abbey Street

GIMCRACK

12.30 Holly

1.00 Striking A Pose (nb)

1.30 Earth Company

2.00 Rainyday Woman (nap)

2.30 Peur De Rien

3.00 Merry Mistress

3.30 Abbey Street

CATTERICK

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

12.15 Burnage Boy

12.45 Brorson (nb)

1.15 Zen Master

1.45 Kayfast Warrior

2.15 Vee Dancer

2.45 Out On The Tear

3.15 Burrows Hall

GIMCRACK

12.15 Eclair Des Sablons

12.45 Master Alan

1.15 Balranald

1.45 Kayfast Warrior

2.15 Fevertre

2.45 Full Of Surprises

3.15 Burrow Seven

Northerner – 12.15 Eclair Des Sablons (nb); 1.45 Inca Prince (nap).

NEWCASTLE

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

4.00 Harry George

4.30 Alrehb

5.00 Muveran

5.30 Atrafan

6.00 Tadleel

6.30 Lincoln Dream

7.00 Absolute Dream

7.30 Sharrabang

GIMCRACK

4.00 Velma

4.30 Alrehb

5.00 Superior Force

5.30 Pallas Lord

6.00 Spartan Fighter

6.30 Monsieur Kodi

7.00 Absolute Dream

7.30 Fircombe Hall

Newmarket – 4.30 Alrehb (nap); 6.30 Ringo Starlight (nb).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-14-2021, 09:47 AM

Mahoning Valley (2nd) Historically, 3-1
(8th) Lady Itch, 6-1

Mountaineer (2nd) Dream Saturday, 4-1
(7th) Daylight, 3-1

Parx Racing (4th) Shirley Greene, 5-1
(7th) Wagon Boss, 3-1

Penn National (1st) Polished Gal, 8-1
(5th) All Tacked Up, 3-1

Turf Paradise (1st) Perfect Come Back, 4-1
(7th) Blank It, 5-1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-14-2021, 09:47 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Penn National - Race #4
Picks Notes
#6 Spunky Zoey She'll get Lasix for this second career start, and she turned in a pretty useful effort at first asking. She's dangerous with these if she can bring any kind of step forward with that race under her belt.
#1 Mexicali Rose Forward player has form that fits while rising from $25,000 maiden claimers at Laurel, but there appears to be enough other pace signed on to think maybe she takes a bit of heat from the rail.
#3 Run Laura Run She didn't have anything serious left in the lane last time out, but she'll move into a very dangerous barn for this one. Thinking she forces the issues early and hangs around for a piece.
Race Summary Spunky Zoey was a bit one-paced at points in her debut, but she has room to come forward off that run while racing with Lasix today. Anything like the 4/1 ML price would feel appealing.

Penn National - Race #6
Picks Notes
#10 Zertz He'll need to fire fresh off the bench, but he was most recently seen trying a couple of early season 3yo Maryland stakes, and he has already run a handful of really big races around one turn over the local footing.
#8 R Rajun Bull He comes right back at the same level after scoring with similar when racing under the allowance condition, and this guy has repeatedly been valued at $25,000 throughout his career, so the fact that he's in for a tag causes no real concern.
#5 Almendro There is a bit of other pace signed on in here, but he didn't miss by much with similar here two starts back, and he was in with better while trying a tougher condition at Parx last out. I'd want him on the tickets.
Race Summary Zertz has some room to bounce back off the bench after trying the Tesio in April, and he has shown some early hoof that might allow him to find a good spot spying the speed while getting back on a track he likes.

Penn National - Race #7
Picks Notes
#4 Merry Mischief She has been dicey in all three starts, but she'll get around two turns for the first time, and this barn has done decent work with cheap routers like this in the last couple years. Might be worth just having a go of it on the stretchout and hope to discourage a bad bunch.
#6 As You Were She has some competitive running lines, but she has almost always been very vulnerable late in her races, so she seems suspect late while stretching around two turns.
#5 Empress Nefertiti This filly has certainly played her part in helping the barn run up a 1-for-16 record with this kind of maiden claiming router in the last two years here. Still, she is meeting next to nothing on paper here and wouldn't surprise in this 15th start.
Race Summary Could see Merry Mischief becoming sort of a wiseguy alternative to the other listed pair in here, but the hope is her very dull running lines will leave her at a playable enough price. Maybe she gets brave right up top while trying this kind and going long for the first time.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-14-2021, 09:47 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

The Meadows - Race #2
Picks Notes
#2 OUR GG Impressive stretch run and gallop out, taken to three-peat.
#5 FILLY SPEAKS Been burning serious money after 8-13 start to year.
#7 WESTMONT Z TAM Made last-to-2nd move against 'GG,' often hits board.
Race Summary Our GG seeks her third consecutive win at a comparable level and should do it with a duplicate of her race last week. She was unhurried in third behind the 2-to-5 favorite and trapped when the outer flow developed. She squeezed through rivals in the 4-path in the stretch and quickly pulled away. Let's make her today's Best Bet.

Dayton Raceway - Race #6
Picks Notes
#8 BEACH BABY BEE Better than latest win appears, can upset in claiming series opener.
#2 GOLD STAR LAMBEAU Improved form of late, switches pilots for third start of cycle.
#4 PC'S EXPRESSO Changed tactics, led until stretch call, broke stride as the favorite.
Race Summary Beach Baby Bee was flushed out near the half-mile marker, dueled through the turn and held off the closers to prevail. She starts outside but is worth a price shot at 10-1 on the morning line. Play a 2-4-8 exacta box.

Northfield Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#6 FONZIE CHACHARELLI Led, broke stride in heavily-bet try against similar, price goes up.
#7 ROCKIN' ARTSY Pulled pocket near half, dueled hard with fave, stretch drift proved costly.
#2 MIDNIGHT PRAYER Inherited lead, survived hard duel, just missed.
Race Summary Fonzie Chacharelli made an early brush past favored Midnight Prayer to the lead, but it was short-lived as he went off stride. He was heavily bet on the class drop and can rebound at a better price with a new driver today.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-14-2021, 09:48 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Zia Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#6 Laughing Rockett Made a mile run vs. similar at this five0furlong distance two back and can be closer to the lead than he was that day; serious threat.
#1 Taino House Whipper non-twos last time when he drops to his lowest level; stays at $5K but moves up to non-threes and makes his first off the claim by Valdez-Cabral.
#4 Bumblebee Could be a good option when looking for a minor player in tris or supers; showed speed vs. similar last out and will be a forward factor. Might benefit from a ground-saving run.
Race Summary Laughing Rocket last out put down a :21 2-5 and backed out of it; he takes a drop today and will probably in fairly attendance at this shorter distance.

Zia Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#4 Country Club Cutie Cruised home fast time against open claimers and can handle the step up to today's price; good in four of five races.
#2 Henry On the Run Drops out of allowance races and was most notably second in an allowance two back; can be a big player at this level.
#1 Ragtime Rythm Steps up in class after a sharp win last out; can be close from the rail throughout.
Race Summary Country Club Cutie tossed a clunker goin a mile in a stakes race three race but everything else on her form was good; she won off a three-year layoff last time and can the stakes-placed mare can be tough right back.

Zia Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#8 Our Soaring Angel Was mid-pack in a fast allowance race last time and can be effective in a drop to this claiming price; Fincher stable still hitting at 26 percent.
#7 Caught Stealing Has been in allowance races and was third two back; can be tough on this class drop.
#1 Latenite Slewzy Broke her maiden two back and third last time when claimed by Cappeluccci; has a decent finishing move and is a legit threat.
Race Summary Our Soaring Angel drops out of stronger races and can make a strong late run vs. these.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-14-2021, 09:48 AM

Turf Paradise Selections for December 14, 2021 – Horse Racing Picks

By Kyle E in Horse Racing — Dec 13th, 2021 11:34pm PST

Turf Paradise Selections for December 14, 2021 – Horse Racing Picks

We’re off and running on Tuesday afternoon at the racetrack. BetOnline has four racecourses available for wagering on this card. There’s an extra racetrack from yesterday after there were only four racecourses on Monday.

Industry Leading 9% Cashback!

It’s light racing during this time of the year before Christmas. There are a couple of decently sized stakes races coming up on Saturday.

There are two $500,000 New York Stallion Series races at Aqueduct Racetrack, so that’s something to look forward to. The most notable racing coming up is the Pegasus at Gulfstream Park. We’ll get back to million dollar racing then.

Our first stop on Tuesday is at Turf Paradise in Arizona, and then we’ll head to Penn National Race Course for evening racing later in the day. Head below for our free Turf Paradise picks on December 14, 2021.
Taking Your Horse Race Betting to the Next Level
Race 2
(1) Club Mesquite
+300 (3/1)
(2) High Flyin Tiger
+2000 (20/1)
(3) Extremely Wicked
+250 (5/2)
(4) Warfront Fighter
+200 (2/1)
(5) Sandman’s Legacy
+600 (6/1)
(6) Cowbaby
+800 (8/1)
(7) Lucky Chance
+1000 (10/1)

Post Time: 1:10 p.m. MST
Distance: 1 Mile 70 Yards
Purse:$14,300

Race 2 is a $14,300 event covering a mile and 70 yards on the dirt. Club Mesquite and Warfront Fighter are likely going to be up front in the stretch run.

Club Mesquite is winless in six attempts, and has finished 4th, 6th, 3rd in his previous three outings. He’s coming off a decent performance to show 3rd in a $22,100 assignment.

That was acceptable, but Club Mesquite is looking for more and should probably do better down in grade to $14,300. After showing for the first time in his career, Club Mesquite should have a big say.

Warfront Fighter is winless in 19 attempts, but should have a chance in this one. He transfers from Del Mar where he’s accustomed to racing against strong horses.

He’s only raced at Aqueduct, Belmont, and Del Mar in his career. In his latest attempt, Warfront Fighter finished 4th in a $25,000 race on November 20.

On a transfer to Turf Paradise and pointed to a $14,300 event, the easiest of his career, this should be the spot for him.
The Bet
(4) WARFRONT FIGHTER
+200
Place Bet Now!
Race 3
(1) Macchiato D’oro
+500 (5/1)
(2) Classic Luck
+400 (4/1)
(3) Prince Otto
+600 (6/1)
(4) Gabby Tom
+2000 (20/1)
(5) Silver Kid
+800 (8/1)
(6) Greenbrier
+350 (7/2)
(7) Majestic Street
+160 (8/5)

Post Time: 1:40 p.m. MST
Distance:1 ⅛ Miles
Purse:$22,100

Race 3 runs for 1 ⅛ miles on the dirt. Macchiato D’oro and Majestic Street should have a big run in the stretch run on Tuesday afternoon.

Macchiato D’oro made his debut on November 17 and ran a good race to show 3rd for a $20,600 purse. It was a decent start to the $100,000 colt’s career, but at that price tag, more will be expected in the future.

For a $100,000 horse, winning in these grades is required work. He’s coming off a blazing fast workout time of 59.40 at 4 furlongs on December 9.

If Macchiato D’oro can build on his debut, he has to be in consideration to strike in Race 3. Majestic Street from the outside should give him a big challenge.

Majestic Street is winless in five attempts, but coming on strong. He has finished 7th, 5th, 2nd, 5th, 2nd in his last five.

In his latest outing, Majestic Street placed 2nd behind Larry’s Legend by a half length for a $20,600 purse. That was a good run and should put Majestic Street near the front in the same form.

All of the value has to be on the No. 1 in this one, though. I am going to side with Macchiato D’oro at this price.
The Bet
(1) MACCHIATO D’ORO
+500
Place Bet Now!
Race 7
(1) Blank It
+500 (5/1)
(2) South Fresno
+800 (8/1)
(3) Tapit At Midnight
+2000 (20/1)
(4) Dyna Cat
+2000 (20/1)
(5) Chromium
+1000 (10/1)
(6) Plum Lucky
+1000 (10/1)
(7) Little John
+2000 (20/1)
(8) Flycatcher
+600 (6/1)
(9) Six Point Rack
+400 (4/1)
(10) Press Briefing
+300 (3/1)
(11) King Lebron
+600 (6/1)

Post Time: 3:28 p.m. MST
Distance:6 ½ Furlongs
Purse:$10,660

Race 7 goes off for 6 ½ furlongs on the dirt. Blank It and Press Briefing should be top contenders in this one.

Blank It is 7 for 41 in his career, and has finished 1st, 2nd in his previous two attempts. He’s finished 2nd, 6th, 1st, 2nd in his last four outings.

Blank It won an assignment two races back at Turf Paradise by 1 ¼ lengths over Thetrailerguy for a $10,040 prize. Not bad.

He was unable to follow up in his next race, placing 2nd behind Out for Justice by a neck for $10,660. Similar form will yield solid results for Blank It.

Press Briefing is 3 for 13, finishing 2nd, 4th, 1st, 6th in his last four. The gelding was a half-length win over Very Irish in a $13,000 race.

He couldn’t follow up on November 24, going 6th in a $23,600 race. That was too tough, but Press Briefing is back down to $10,660 and should find this doable.
The Bet
(10) PRESS BRIEFING
+300

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-14-2021, 09:48 AM

Penn National Race Course Selections for December 14, 2021 – Horse Racing Picks

By Kyle E in Horse Racing — Dec 14th, 2021 1:13am PST

Penn National Race Course Selections for December 14, 2021 – Horse Racing Picks

BetOnline has horse racing on Tuesday with four thoroughbred race tracks available for wagering. We’re starting at Turf Paradise and then checking out an evening card at Penn National Race Course. Friday brings some stakes racing, but you aren’t going to find anything of the sort on Tuesday.

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Remington Park has a big day coming up, as they have five races led by the $400,000 Remington Springboard Mile. Along with the Springboard Mile, there are two $100,000 assignments at Remington Park on Friday. The OKC based track doesn’t get the spotlight typically, so this is a day for them.

Penn National has nine races worth $168,000 in prize money this evening in Pennsylvania. Head below for our free Penn National Race Course picks on December 14, 2021.
Taking Your Horse Race Betting to the Next Level
Race 5
(1) All Tacked Up
+300 (3/1)
(2) Nine Toe Johnny
+250 (5/2)
(3) Gallinipper
+800 (8/1)
(4) Pratt
+500 (5/1)
(5) Simmons
+1000 (10/1)
(6) Long Tom
+1200 (12/1)
(7) Tuckerton Bay
+400 (4/1)
(8) Piggybank
+1000 (10/1)

Post Time: 7:49 p.m. EST
Distance: 1 Mile 70 Yards
Purse:$31,600

The fifth event at Turf Paradise covers 5 furlongs on the turf. All Tacked Up and Nine Toe Johnny should have a chance on the grass today.

All Tacked Up is looking for better after finishing 1st, 3rd, 2nd in his previous three outings. He was a solid winner three races back with a win by a neck over Elevated Forever in a $15,400 assignment.

In his last two treks, All Tacked Up showed 3rd in a $16,400 assignment on November 1, and then did a spot better to place 2nd behind Papa Tony by a half-length in the same grade.

All Tacked Up is up in grade to the $31,600 level on Tuesday. This is going to be tougher, but he should be able to hang around.

Nine Toe Johnny is a one-time winner through 10 attempts, with a win back on February 15 in his three attempts. He has gone winless since then, but should avoid these terms after a transfer from Parx.

Nine Toe Johnny most recently finished 8th on October 20 for a $45,000 purse after showing 3rd on September 13 for $35,000.

A transfer to Turf Paradise should do him some good. This $31,600 assignment looks more than manageable for Nine Toe Johnny to take down.
The Bet
(2) NINE TOE JOHNNY
+250
Place Bet Now!
Race 6
(1) Easy Day
+400 (4/1)
(2) John’s Promise
+1000 (10/1)
(3) The Wolfman
+600 (6/1)
(4) Annamated Moon
+800 (8/1)
(5) Almendro
+1500 (15/1)
(6) Jebologist
+600 (6/1)
(7) Martinkelly
+1500 (15/1)
(8) R Rajun Bull
+300 (3/1)
(9) Rookie Salsa
+600 (6/1)
(10) Zertz
+1000 (10/1)

Post Time: 8:16 p.m. EST
Distance:6 Furlongs
Purse:$28,900

Race 6 covers 6 furlongs for a $28,900 purse on the dirt. Look at Rookie Salsa and R Rajun Bull should have a big chance in this one.

Rookie Salsa is 6 for 20 in his career, and has finished 2nd, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 2nd in his previous five races.

The gelding was a big winner on October 28 at Laurel Park with a W W Springtime by ¾ lengths in a $29,260 assignment.

After that outing, Rookie Salsa placed 2nd behind Kenny Had a Notion by a neck for $57,720 on November 11. That form would put Rookie Salsa right there at the wire.

R Rajun Bull is 5 for 12 and on a hat-trick going into Tuesday. In his latest attempt, R Cajun Bull beat Powerfully Built by a neck in a $28,900 race.

That win came after a 2 ¼ length win in a $28,000 assignment on October 8. He’s a winner at this level, and should have a big chance Tuesday as well.
The Bet
(8) R RAJUN BULL
+300
Place Bet Now!
Race 7
(1) Julie Ann
+800 (8/1)
(2) Eskendereya’s Gift
+800 (8/1)
(3) All The Way Mae
+800 (8/1)
(4) Merry Mischief
+500 (5/1)
(5) Empress Neferiti
+300 (3/1)
(6) As You Were
+250 (5/2)
(7) Tua
+350 (7/2)

Post Time: 8:43 p.m. EST
Distance:1 Mile 70 Yards
Purse:$11,800

Race 7 goes for a $11,800 purse covering a mile and 70 yards. Empress Nefertiti and As You Were should be the top runners to watch.

Empress Nefertiti is winless in 14 races, and has finished 4th, 2nd, 5th, 4th in his last four attempts. In his most recent outing, he finished 4th for a $11,800 race after finishing 5th on November 16 in a $11,800 assignment on November 16.

The form is going to have to see some improvement, but should have a decent enough chance. Look for As You Were to provide the most resistance in this one against Empress Nefertiti.

As You Were is winless in seven races, finishing 4th, 2nd, 4th in her last three outings. She put together a good run two races back behind Tangoberg to lose by a neck in a $16,000 race.

That was good form, as she just missed out at the wire. In her next and most recent outing, As You Were finished 4th for a $16,000 prize on November 23.

It was a fine run, though As You Were needs a drop in grade to go to the winner’s circle. Down to $11,800, this can do it for As You Were in Race 7.
The Bet
(6) AS YOU WERE
+250

Tuesday 12/14/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Tuesday 12/14/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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