Saturday 1/1/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2022, 08:34 AM

The horse racing tips for Saturday, January 1, 2022

The Quinté + on Saturday January 1 is scheduled at the Vincennes racecourse in the discipline of trotting. Find below our predictions for this race as well as our bet of the day and our bet of madness in two other races on the menu of the day.

1 Gaspar de Brion (Favorites)

He has just performed a demonstration on the course that interests us and will logically be the horse to beat.

8 Vandel’s Hades (Outsider)

He has raced in higher prizes lately and must be able to play his game well in this field.
BET OF THE DAY
Meeting 1 (Vincennes) – Race 5: 2 Florida Sport

She is irreproachable in the discipline of mounted trotting and she remains on two excellent performances in high batches. She should strive for victory.
THE MADNESS BET
Meeting 1 (Vincennes) – Race 1:12 Idaho Springs

He was only narrowly edged by the undefeated Idéal du Pommeau lately. He is capable of winning here.

Dimitri Blanleuil Journalist RMC Sport

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2022, 08:35 AM

Robin Goodfellow's Racing Tips: Best bets for Saturday, January 1

By Sam Turner For The Daily Mail

FAKENHAM

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

12.45 Summit Like Herbie

1.20 Hidor De Bersy

1.55 Jony Max

2.30 All In Love

3.05 Barden Bella

3.40 Dynamite Kentucky

GIMCRACK

12.45 Summit Like Herbie

1.20 Menin Gate

1.55 Animal

2.30 Bashful Boy

3.05 Barden Bella

3.40 Table Mountain

CATTERICK

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

12.25 Ask The Doc

1.00 Oliver's Island

1.35 Tommie Beau

2.15 Socialist Agenda

2.45 Spot On Soph

3.20 Ex S'elance

GIMCRACK

12.25 Ask The Doc

1.00 Bullion Boss

1.35 Rapper

2.15 Lindwall

2.45 Chase The Wind

3.20 Bestiarius

NEWMARKET - 12.25 Ask The Doc

NORTHERNER - 12.25 ASK THE DOC (nap)

CHELTENHAM

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

12.15 I Am Maximus

12.50 Honest Vic

1.25 L'Homme Presse

2.00 Funambule Sivola

2.35 Art Approval (nb)

3.10 Guard Your Dreams

3.50 Beyond Boundaries

GIMCRACK

12.15 Doctor Ken

12.50 Honest Vic

1.25 L'Homme Presse (nb)

2.00 Coole Cody

2.35 Tamar Bridge

3.10 BREWIN'UPASTORM (nap)

3.50 Poetic Music

MUSSELBURGH

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

12.30 Individualiste

1.05 Bollingerandkrug

1.40 Geronimo

2.10 Tommy's Oscar

2.50 Amour De Nuit

3.25 Morraman

GIMCRACK

12.30 Inca Prince

1.05 Carry On The Magic

1.40 Ashington

2.10 Christopher Wood

2.50 Gaelik Coast

3.25 Coolbane Boy

EXETER

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

12.40 Gustavian

1.15 Dubrovnik Harry

1.50 Gamaret

2.25 Samuel Jackson

3.00 Chambard

3.35 Drash On Ruby

4.05 Knowsley Road

GIMCRACK

12.40 Broken Halo

1.15 Dubrovnik Harry

1.50 Gamaret

2.25 Les Milos

3.00 Keep Rolling

3.35 Runasimi River

4.05 Astronomic View

SOUTHWELL

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

12.33 Masqool

1.08 Shyjack

1.43 GYPSY WHISPER (nap)

2.18 Theotherside

2.53 Whiteandblue

3.28 Rebel Redemption

4.00 King Of The South

4.30 Moonraker

GIMCRACK

12.33 Masqool

1.08 Paddy Elliot

1.43 Harbour Vision

2.18 Arriviste

2.53 Whiteandblue

3.28 Huraiz

4.00 Sky Power

4.30 Moonraker

NEWMARKET - 4.00 KING OF THE SOUTH (nap)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2022, 08:35 AM

Gulfstream Park: Stakes plays for Jan. 1
John Mucciolo

Race 4 – Cash Run S.

The one-mile affair for newly turned three-year-old fillies attracted seven. #2 Kathleen O (5-2) broke slowest and was last early in her debut dash at Aqueduct, but the Shug McGaughey trainee made up for her tardy start with a flying finish in the mud to graduate at first asking. $275,000 daughter of Upstart appears to have a very bright future. Javier Castellano retains the mount.
Race 5 – Ginger Brew S.

Sophomore fillies will travel one mile on the lawn in a nice betting race. I am siding with #2 Li Li Bear (6-1) who will make her turf debut. The Liam’s Map filly was a game maiden winner on the synthetic most recently, and I feel that she will move forward on the stretch-out and move to the lawn on Saturday. Joseph trainee will be forwardly placed throughout under Gaffalione.
Race 7 – Limehouse S.

A cast of seven three-year-olds will dash six panels in this spot. #4 Summery (8-1) has moved forward since moving to the dirt two back and has great value at his morning-line price. Summer Front colt was a smart second last time out and smoked a bullet half-mile at Tampa Bay Downs in preparation for his stakes bow.
Race 9 – Dania Beach S.

Conditioner Todd Pletcher has two contenders in the cast, and I like both of them. #8 Grand Sonata (7-2) had an eventful trip when a close fifth in the Central Park S. at Aqueduct in his latest test, and the son of Medaglia d’Oro figures to receive a much cleaner voyage from the outside post in this spot.

#5 Chanceux (3-1) led throughout in his initial turf try in a sprint in the Empire State, and he gives me the impression of a horse who wants to run much longer. Kentucky-bred chestnut will be dangerous if he clears the field at the break with top gun Saez in the stirrups.
Race 10 – Mucho Macho Man S.

The final stakes race is at one mile on the dirt, and I am giving top billing to #5 Skippylongstocking (7-2). Son of Exaggerator was a huge maiden winner on the surface three back, and I didn’t mind his last pair of races, either. The addition of blinkers will be a boost for the bay, who will be paired with Gaffalione.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2022, 08:35 AM

Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Saturday, January 1
Posted on December 31, 2021 by David Aragona

RACE 4: VIOLENT VIXEN (#6)

Cazilda Fortytales looks like a standout in this race based on the 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure she earned for her recent 10-length score against claiming company. A repeat of that performance will probably get her to the winner’s circle once again. However, I’m a little skeptical that she can duplicate that effort against tougher company. That win came as part of a 4-victory day for her barn, and I’ll be interested to see if those horses recapture the form from that afternoon. There’s plenty of other speed signed on, and I think she faces a legitimate pace rival in Thegoddessofsnakes, who figures to keep her honest on the front end. Cadeau de Paix would love to see a battle up front as she will be coming from off the pace. She moved too soon going a mile last time and will appreciate the turnback in distance today. She’s a contender, but I prefer the upside of Violent Vixen. This filly has shown speed in her last couple of starts, but she’s capable of sitting off the pace as well. I thought she ran well two back after setting an honest pace, and last time she won easily with something left in the tank. Charlton Baker has found a good spot for her to try winners, and he is 5 for 25 (20%, $2.74 ROI) with last-out maiden winners in NYRA dirt sprints over 5 years.

RACE 5: IMPRESSIONIST (#1)

I’m not trying to beat likely favorite Impressionist. This gelding put in a big effort in his career debut, closing resolutely for third despite a poor start. He really did get slammed coming out of the gate and found himself last in a 12-horse field heading down the backstretch. He showed real determination to overcome traffic and all of that kickback. While he did flatten out a bit in the last furlong, but had every right to get tired. Impressionist is bred to be a good one as a half-brother to Grade 1 Arkansas Derby runner-up Conquest Mo Money ($510k), and all of this dam’s foals have been runners. Atras is just 1 for 16 (6%, $0.73 ROI) with maiden 2nd time starters over 5 years, but there haven’t been many quality horses in that sample. I would expect him to show more speed this time with a cleaner break. His main rival may be Relate, who finished just behind him last time. This colt went for a whopping $685k at the OBS April sale last year after working a quarter in 20 3/5 seconds. However, it took him a while to get to the races and he was a little chilly on the board in that Dec. 5 debut, going off at nearly 5-1. He showed good early speed from the rail and looked like a real threat when he switched outside at the quarter pole before flattening out late. He should have gained some fitness from that run, though he had a much better trip than today’s rival Impressionist. Though Steve Asmussen is just 1 for 16 (6%, $0.35 ROI) with maiden second time starters in Aqueduct dirt sprints over 5 years.

RACE 8: UNBRIDLED BOMBER (#2)

Likely favorite Cooke Creek has yet to run a bad race through three starts. He handled a sprint in his debut, but he clearly is one who has relished the added ground. He arguably faced a tougher field last time in the Grade 3 Nashua and acquitted himself admirably. He raced wide every step of the way and still tried to take a run at the eventual winner late before getting turned away. This long-striding son of Uncle Mo should handle further in the future, but he tackles the same one-turn mile distance here, and makes plenty of sense. I’d also use Mr Jefferson. This son of Constitution has been improving with every dirt start, and was much the best over allowance rivals two back. He tackled the big boys in the Remsen last time and wasn’t disgraced in finishing fourth after issuing a challenge at the quarter pole. Turning back to a one-turn mile should suit him and he’s reunited with the jock who won aboard him twice last year. I’m somewhat against some others who could go off at short prices like Ohtwoohthreefive and Hagler. The former has never tried dirt and is taking a shot on this surface after a series of turf races. While he is by good dirt influence Union Rags, his female family is all turf breeding. Hagler was disappointing in victory last time and I’m not convinced that he’s cut out to handle this one-mile distance. My top pick at a bigger price is Unbridled Bomber. This colt didn’t show much ability at the start of his career, but he’s slowly but surely come around since stretching out in distance. This big, goofy son of Upstart has needed some time to develop mentally, as he didn’t seem to be all that focused through the first three starts of his career. Yet something clicked into place last time, as he raced more in the bridle and showed real determination rallying up the rail to break his maiden. That 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him a player here, and he’s on an upward trajectory. If the pace heats up, expect him to be staying on late. Though, the track has to be playing differently than it was on Thursday and Friday.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2022, 08:36 AM

New Year's Day stakes places for Santa Anita
John Mucciolo

A quartet of graded stakes races will highlight a superb card at The Great Race Place on Saturday.
Race 6 – Joe Hernandez S. (G2)

A well-matched field of seven will dash 6 1/2 grassy furlongs in the first black-type race of the day. #5 Commander (3-1) has fine current form and comes off a huge runner-up try at Del Mar last time out. A stylish winner in his most recent run on the course, War Command gelding drew a good post and should receive a good trip under Hernandez.
Race 7 – Sham S. (G3)

As mentioned in the Sham Stakes Tipsheet, I am siding with proven turf performer #1 Mackinnon (3-1) to handle the surface change and make good in this heat for Doug O’Neill.
Race 8 – Robert J. Frankel S. (G2)

I feel that #7 Luck (8-5) will get the right trip in the 1 1/8-mile turf affair with Prat in the stirrups. Baltas import has been sharp from three races since arriving in the U. S., and the daughter of Kitten’s Joy has also been unlucky not to have won each of those events. Stuck behind slow paces in her two latest ventures, the chestnut figures to get a more realistic pace to run at on Saturday.
Race 9 – La Canada S. (G3)

A very competitive group will go postward in the 1 1/16-mile contest on the main strip. Baffert’s #6 As Time Goes By (8-5) is the class of the field and also is perfectly drawn outside of the compact field. The well-bred daughter of American Pharoah sports a 6-3-3-0 mark on the oval, and she will be forcing the action while clear throughout beneath Prat.

#2 Cowboys Daughter (10-1) is a class question mark in the affair, but she has won four in succession since being claimed and will be a nice price, as well. The five-year-old Hampton Court mare was a game allowance victress at Los Alamitos two back, proving that she can handle the dirt, and her early speed will have her well placed to the top of the lane under Frey.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2022, 08:37 AM

2022 Smarty Jones Cheatsheet
By TwinSpires Editorial Team, Sponsored Content
— By James Scully (TwinSpires)

1. Dash Attack (12-1) – Overlooked at 10-1 odds in his first start, Dash Attack rallied to prevail by about a length on the opening weekend of the Oaklawn Park meet. The chestnut colt will jump straight to a Road the Kentucky Derby series qualifier for Kenny McPeek. By Munnings, sire of Grade 1 winners Eda, Jack Christopher, and Kimari in 2021, Dash Attack registered commendable Brisnet Speed (87) and Late Pace (92) numbers breaking his maiden at today’s one-mile distance. He will have to overcome a tricky rail post, and spot seasoning to rivals, but the youngster rates as intriguing following an encouraging career debut.

2. All in Sync (8-1) – Did not disappoint as the favorite the second time out, recording a 1 1/2-length, frontrunning maiden special tally over a sloppy Churchill Downs track in late November. Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen trains the $310,000 son of Maclean’s Music, and All in Sync finished a commendable second when making his initial outing on a fast track at Keeneland. Both starts came at six furlongs, and the dark bay colt must stretch out to a two-turn mile here. His Brisnet Speed and Pace numbers are solid, and All in Sync will be a pace factor from the start under Ricardo Santana Jr.

3. Home Brew (3-1) – By virtue of a 3 3/4-length allowance score at Oaklawn four weeks ago, Home Brew appears likely to go favored for Brad Cox. The Street Sense colt was transferred to Cox after rallying to break his maiden going away at Laurel Park in his first outing, and the bay closed from just off the pace to narrowly miss against allowance foes at Churchill Downs for the new barn. A half-brother to Grade 2-winning sprinter Air Strike, Home Brew changed tactics last time, easily leading wire to wire, and his versatility is an asset. He’s a major player with Florent Geroux.

4. Kavod (5-1) – After being claimed for $50,000 from a three-length win at Churchill Downs, Kavod came back to win the six-furlong Advent S. by a length on Oaklawn’s opening-day program 13 days later. The Lea colt had raced in five consecutive stakes, recording four straight unplaced efforts, before dropping into the claiming ranks, and the chestnut has turned things around. His pedigree suggests the added ground will be no issue, but this will be Kavod’s first two-turn attempt in 10 starts. Francisco Arrieta will be back up on the stalker for Chris Hartman.

5. Ignitis (15-1) – A rousing five-length maiden scorer at Keeneland two starts back, Ignitis must show more after trailing among six runners in the Nov. 27 Lively Shively S. at Churchill Downs. The dark bay colt showed good speed in his first four outings, but the son of Nyquist has become more of a stalker in the last two outings. Third to subsequent Breeders’ Futurity (G1) winner Rattle N Roll when stretching out to a route two starts back, Ignitis will stretch back out to two turns Saturday for legendary Hall of Fame conditioner D. Wayne Lukas.

6. Bureau (12-1) – Following an eye-catching maiden romp at Remington Park, Bureau steps up significantly for his stakes debut. He wasn’t much of a factor in his first start, closing belatedly for fourth, and the Illinois-bred colt registered only a 79 Brisnet Speed rating breaking his maiden last time. He’ll need to run faster here. From the first crop of Mastery, the Ron Moquett-trained chestnut retains the services of David Cabrera.

7. Ruggs (10-1) – The second of two for Ron Moquett, Ruggs will add blinkers after weakening slightly to fourth in the Dec. 3 Advent S. at Oalawn Park. The Gun Runner colt, a $170,000 two-year-old purchase, rolled to a three-length win when debuting as the favorite in a Remington Park maiden special weight in mid-November, and the chestnut improved his Brisnet Speed ratings last time (82). Out of a Grade 3-winning dam, Ruggs appear capable of handling the added ground, but he will need to keep improving to offer a serious challenge. He should be prominent from the start with Julien Leparoux.

8. Vivar (8-1) – Following a sixth in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) at Churchill Downs, Vivar will make his second stakes attempt for Brad Cox. The gray son of Cairo Prince started his racing career on turf, breaking his maiden as an odds-on favorite at Kentucky Downs the second time out, and he captured an off-the-turf allowance at Keeneland when switching to the main track two starts back. Vivar was never a factor at 26-1 odds last time, but the closer did register a triple-digit Brisnet Late Pace rating two starts back. The gray sophomore will look to make an impact from off the pace with Martin Garcia.

9. Don’tcrossthedevil (10-1) – Perfect from two starts at Remington Park, Don’tcrossthedevil will make his stakes debut for new trainer Phil D’Amato after a private purchase. The Cross Traffic colt has done everything right so far, easily breaking his maiden prior to a six-length allowance score in late November, and the bay Kentucky-bred displayed a sharp turn of foot both times. Don’tcrossthedevil didn’t appear to beat much, and faces a significant class check on Saturday, but he merits consideration for at least a minor award after earning a respectable 86 Brisnet Speed rating.

10. Barber Road (4-1) – After just missing in the Nov. 27 Lively Shively S. at Churchill Downs, Barber Road rates as a top contender. The gray colt convincingly broke his maiden the second time out at Keeneland, dropping to the claiming ranks and stretching out to a route, and followed with a 6 1/4-length romp over starter allowance foes in a Churchill Downs sprint. The son of Race Day contested the pace from the start of the 6 1/2-furlong Lively Shively, grudgingly giving way by a half-length on the wire, and Barber Road will show speed in the Smarty Jones. Reylu Gutierrez, who won a pair of stakes at Fair Grounds last Sunday, will be up for John Ortiz.

11. Cairama (8-1) – Third in the Dec. 3 Advent at Oaklawn Park, Cairama will make his third straight stakes appearance for Steve Asmussen. The gray Cairo Prince colt, a $525,000 two-year-old purchase, won at first asking in a Belmont Park sprint in mid-November, leading wire to wire. He wasn’t a factor trying stakes foes in the Nashua S. (G3) next out, checking in a well-beaten fifth, and Cairama came up short after looming large at the top of the stretch in the Advent. Geovanni Franco picks up the mount for his first two-turn start.

12. Cool Papa G (6-1) – Rounding out a trio of Steve Asmussen runners, Cool Papa G exits a belated third in the 6 1/2-furlong Lively Shively S. at Churchill Downs. He was vanned off afterward, but shows three workouts in the 35-day interim. A debut winner at five furlongs in early June, the bay colt returned from a near four-month freshening to finish a well-beaten third in a Keeneland allowance. His Brisnet Speed numbers are solid, but the son of Maclean’s Music will stretch out to two turns with a sprint-oriented pedigree. Ramon Vasquez rides.

13. Immoral (20-1) – A gelding by Into Mischief, who has led all North American sires by progeny earnings for three consecutive years (2019-21), Immoral faces an imposing task after rallying to break his maiden in his career debut at Charles Town. The bay received only a 72 Brisnet Speed rating for the three-length decision, and he comes back from a 51-day freshening for new trainer Michael Puhlich.

14. Ben Diesel (5-1) – Marooned on the far outside, Ben Diesel looms as a serious contender if he can overcome the difficult post. The Dallas Stewart trainee rolled to a 3 1/4-length decision when making his career debut in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs in late October, and the Will Take Charge colt showed good speed when following with a fine fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) a month later. A full brother to Will’s Secret, who captured the Honeybee (G3) at Oaklawn and finished third in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) last spring, Ben Diesel is eligible to appreciate the class relief here. Jon Court will try to avoid going too wide on the first turn.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2022, 08:38 AM

Race of the Week: Joe Hernandez at Santa Anita | Saturday, Jan. 1

December 30, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Start your New Year with a winner at Santa Anita, where a quartet of important stakes races will be contested Saturday in consecutive races. Elite turf sprinters kick off the series of shared features in Race 6, the $200,000 Grade 2 Joe Hernandez Stakes. That's followed by the Sham, the Frankel and the La Canada -- all graded events.

Horseplayers on the Xpressbet and 1/ST BET platforms can take part in a series of up to $10 money-back specials on win bets throughout the family of racetracks this Saturday and Sunday from Santa Anita to Gulfstream to Laurel to Golden Gate. See Xpressbet.com/promotions for more details.

Field Depth:
BEER CAN MAN and CUPID'S CLAWS are domestic Grade 3 winners, while DELAWARE was a Group 3 winner in France. CHEWING GUM has been Grade 1-placed, while MOMOS has paced at the Grade 2 level. The class facts seems evenly split between CHEWING GUM, CUPID'S CLAWS and DELAWARE in terms of strength of schedule.

Pace:
With 6-1/2 furlong downhill sprints, you expect a lot of early heat. But only MOMOS and BEER CAN MAN appear to be committed to the front tangle. Closers are going to have to keep in touch.

Our Eyes:
Three Eastern raiders and a French import make this 7-horse field unlike most SoCal turf sprints we see.

CHEWING GUM, DELAWARE and MOMOS take their game west in the Hernandez. The late-running CHEWING GUM hasn't been as effective late as his career as progressed, and now at age 7 will be trying something completely new in hopes of a reclamation project. At 3-22 lifetime at this point in his career, he feels like an underlay on the tote Saturday. DELAWARE hasn't sprinted on turf since July of 2020 when he ran down CHEWING GUM over 7 furlongs to be second at Belmont in allowance company. But he's run in 8 stakes since at longer distances, and now shows up off an August layoff with a change of venue and trainer. Chad Brown gives way to Paddy Gallagher. Jockey Mike Smith should be a good fit in terms of late-running style. MOMOS has yet to be older horses in stakes company, but this newly turned 4-year-old seems to stack up well with these on form and projected race shape. Unless BEER CAN MAN attacks early, hot-riding opening weekend pilot John Velazquez can do his best to ration MOMOS on the front end.

The European X-factor is BRAN. He's been training at Santa Anita since November for his first domestic bid under the care of John Sadler, who unleashed the rising star Flightline here Sunday in the Malibu. BRAN comes with less fanfare, a former claiming and allowance sort in France. He flashed talent in a Dec. 20 workout on the SA training track. XBTV cameras were rolling as he rallied up the inside to outfinish a pair of Phil D'Amato workers and gallop out with interest. He's in with a chance against these.

With west coast turf sprint kingpin Peter Miller stepping aside from the training game, he's turned over much of his stable to assistant Ruben Alvarado, who will be firing here with COMMANDER and CUPID'S CLAWS. It's too soon to draw conclusions on whether Alvarado will continue the same kind of strike rate we saw with Miller. COMMANDER is obviously the more suited turf sprinter of the pair as CUPID'S CLAW makes a wild cut back in trip after his last 3 starts between 10 and 13 furlongs. There's nothing on the 7-year-old's form that suggests the turf sprint will be the ideal fit, so lean to COMMANDER of the Alvarado pair ... though neither jumps off the page to me.

BEER CAN MAN is the most trustworthy of the California locals. He should pop first or second early from the rail with MOMOS the chief early threat. The inside draw is not the edge in downhill turf sprints, where there's a dog-leg to the course that actually favors those drawn outside. But in a 7-horse field and lack of early speed in this race, there's absolutely no concern about the draw for BEER CAN MAN. For him, finishing kick is the kicker. He's never gotten beyond the mid-80s in BRIS late pace figures at any distance. Can he hold off the late rallying rivals under Flavien Prat?

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
BEER CAN MAN is 9-9 in the superfecta lifetime on turf and should be near the pace in what looks to be a modest tempo.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
Don't see any huge prices, but DELAWARE could be left go at an attractive number in the upper single-digits.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$40 exacta box BRAN and DELAWARE ($80). $10 exacta part-wheel BRAN and DELAWARE over BEER CAN MAN ($20).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2022, 08:41 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis - January 1, 2022

January 1, 2022

By Jeff Siegel, Handicapper & Analyst
Saturday, January 1, 2022

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TPC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 individual
algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100 point takeout.

The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.

Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 5-Liberty Forever; 7-Street Humor

Forecast: First-time gelding Liberty ForeverStreet Humor returns to turf after showing improvement in the speed figure department when third in a dirt sprint at Los Alamitos. This return to grass is warranted; the son of Street Boss was beaten less than a length when worn down late after cutting out the fractions over a mile at Del Mar in his racing debut. He’ll be in the fray throughout. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play, though a case could be made for a few others, including the two entrants who have a right to step forward based on the recent workouts that are listed below.

Notable Workouts:

Worse Read Sanchez (December 12, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:17.4h). Grade: C+
View Workout Video
Was used as a prompter for Hot Rod Charlie (7f, 1:28.4h) and did his job, breaking off a couple of lengths in front and then falling back in the final furlong (not asked), splits of :26.4, :39 flat, :51.1 and 1:17.4. Very slow time but didn’t look bad under the circumstances, probably has a bit of improvement in him with added experience.

Who’s Candy (December 19, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:16.3h). Grade: C+
View Workout Video
Went off slowly in solo six furlong drill that began at the five-eighths pole, coasted to the top, then was asked through the lane, and really didn’t offer much of a response, splits of :25.3, :37.4, 1:03.2 (to the wire) and then out in 1:16.3. Perhaps he’s not much of a worker; left at 43-1 in his debut and then outran his odds, finishing a reasonable runner-up in a turf sprint.

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RACE 2: Post: 12:32 PT Grade: X
Single: 1-Queen of Thorns

Forecast: In a five-runner maiden special weight sprint for sophomore fillies, Queen of Thorns appears to have much in her favor. She was a hot item at the OBS April sale, where she recorded the fastest quarter mile clocking in the preview session (:20 3/5) after which she brought $300,000 through the ring, and more recently has done some very good work without being asked to show her natural speed for trainer P. Eurton. While it’s true that this stable’s lack of success with first-time starters is concerning, this daughter of Violence may prove the exception to the rule. Under F. Pat and at 8/5 on the morning line (and likely to go lower), she’s a logical short-priced rolling exotic single.

Notable Workouts:

Queen of Thorns (December 13, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2hg). Grade: B+
View Workout Video
Rather nice gate drill without ever being put to pressure while even but quicker than Kerouac (same time, broke slowly), splits of :24.2, :36 flat :48 flat and 1:00.3 on our watches. Lengthy, scopey filly certainly has ability, brought $300,00 at the OBS April sale where she previewed a quarter mile in a sizzling :20 3/5, fastest clocking in the sale.

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RACE 3: Post: 1:04 PT Grade: A-
Single: 4-Snuggler’s Run

Forecast: Here’s another hot-shot first-time starter that seems likely to win but should go off lower than his morning line of 8/5. Smuggler’s Run, from the first crop of the fast sprinter (and so far very successful stallion) Straight Fire, worked five furlongs from the gate by himself in a sizzling :58 4/5 last month and did it easily while breezing throughout and finishing with something left. With just six rivals, none of whom appear formidable on paper, the R. Alvarado-trained gelding seems like a highly-probably winner and short-priced, no value rolling exotic single.

Notable Workouts:

Smuggler’s Run (December 18, Santa Anita, 5f, :58.4hg). Grade: A-
View Workout Video
In blinkers, solo gate work for R. Alvarado (ex-P. Miller assistant) and was highly impressive, never asked while going easily early and then finishing strongly while strictly on his own, splits of :24.1, :35.3, :46.4 and :58.4 before coasting to the wire in 1:13.3. Straight Fire sophomore looks plenty fit, is a tall, strong, powerful gelding very much looks like a win-early type.

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RACE 4: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference: 2-Invincibella; 9-Tricky In

Forecast: Invincibella (TOC=6/5; ML-7/2), first off the claim by D. O’Neill for $25,000, is wheeled back at the same level in this six furlong turf sprint for older fillies and mares. A two-time winner over the local lawn, the English-bred mare is reunited with “win rider: F. Prat and with an extra furlong to work with today should be capable of wearing down the leaders close home. Trickle In (TOC=6-1; ML=3-1) is a “must use” as well in rolling exotic play. She’s not had a whole lot of success sprinting over the local lawn (four starts, once second) and always is suspect under pressure in the final furlong, but the daughter of Temple City seems likely to inherit the role as the controlling speed and if not pressured early could take this field a long way.

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RACE 5: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 6-Artabkeen; 7-Fort Bridger; 1-Mad Steven

Forecast: Let’s to with a fresh face in this maiden $40,000 sprint for 3-year-olds. The D. Hofmans-trained Artabkeen has done some decent work in the a.m. and acts like a gelding who might be able to finish a bit. In a field with suspect early speed, the son of Keen Ice might be able to produce a good enough late pick to get up in time at a nice price. Fort Bridger is another debut runner worth a close look. The son of Gio Ponti displayed pretty good zip in a recent gate work and could be dangerous if he can leave with his field and shake loose early. He’s also listed at 6-1 on the morning line and could easily be better than that. Mad Steve is the best of the known element and is the logical morning line favorite at 9/5. In the frame in his last pair and switching the F. Prat, the S. Miyadi-trained son of Boisterous must leave from the rail but if gets away clean he’ll have every chance while on or near the lead throughout.

Notable Workouts:

Artabkeen (December 19, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:15.4h). Grade: B-
View Workout Video
Showed a tad of ability in this team drill for D. Hofmans while much best over Baldoro (6f, 1:16.3h), very easily to the top and then was asked for run inside the furlong pole to leave his workmate behind, final half mile in :24.2 and :50.2,. not too bad. Eligible to surface in a soft maiden claimer and probably is worth a look.

Fort Bridger (December 16, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1hg). Grade: B-
View Workout Video
In blinkers, three horse gate drill outside Mashhad Flats (5f, 1:00.4hg) and Harddiane (4f, :48.4hg, stumbled start, last of the three) and showed pretty good speed to be slightly best over ‘Flats to the top (pretty much up there) before easing up and falling back, splits of :24.1, :35.3 and :47.3 on our watches, a quicker move than final time might indicate. Maiden claimer appears to have enough early speed to be a threat in a soft field.

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RACE 6: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference: 2-Bran; 1-Beer Can Man

Forecast: French invader Bran (TOC=10-1; ML=6-1 looks interesting in this year’s edition of the Joe Hernandez S/-G2 for older turf sprinters down the Hillside course. A good allowance performer in legitimate company in last year and most recently a respectable fourth in a listed event at Saint-Cloud in October, the J. Sadler-trained gelding has trained like he’s fit and ready for a big effort in his U.S. debut and based on his European form has the proper mid-pack, closing style to be very effective under these conditions. He’s 6-1 on the morning line and is worth a gamble at that price. Beer Can Man (TOC=7/5; ML=5/2), a winner of five of 10 career starts and fresh from career-top win in a fast overnight grass dash in early November, should draft into an ideal pace-prompting trip from his inside draw and have every chance to seal the deal close home. The newly-turned four-year-old continues to improve and with another forward move today should be hard to beat. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with the better-priced Bran preferred on top.

Notable Workouts:

Bran (December 20, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.1h TT). Grade: B+
View Workout Video
Broke off several lengths behind the P. D’Amato team of Phenom (5f, 1:00.4h TT) and Admiral Halsey (5f, 1:01h TT) and rallied along tight quarters inside in the final furlong to catch up and prove best (galloped out well, too) for J. Sadler, final three furlongs in :11.4 and :35.1, strong through the lane while appearing plenty fit. French turf sprinter looks good and may prove to be a better type here than there.

Delaware (December 12, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4h). Grade: C+
Wanted to lean out a bit through the lane in solo half mile main track drill, final three furlongs in :36.3. Decent Middle distance performer from New York now in the P. Gallagher barn probably needs grass to his best stuff, would prefer to see one out here first.

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RACE 7: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 3-Newgrange; 2-Oviatt Class

Forecast: The pace scenario in this year’s renewal of the Sham S.-G3 is a bit muddled because the two speeds, Newgrange (TOC=9/2; ML=2-1) and Rockefeller (TOC=3/5; ML=8/5, are stable mates in B. Baffert’s barn and aren’t likely to go at each other’s throats from the get-go. Will one be rated just off the pace, and if so, which one? Initially, we loved the way Newgrange broke his maiden at first asking but the form hasn’t held, so perhaps he’s not as good as we originally thought. But we have questions surrounding Rockefeller as well, namely, can he be effective around two turns? Then there’s the improving grass performer Mackinnon (TOC=4-1; ML=3-1), with rapidly rising speed figures in each of six career starts, but completely completely unproven on dirt. Finally, there’s Oviatt Class (TOC=11-1; ML=7/2), victimized by a pro-speed track in the American Pharoah S.-G1 when rallying too late to be third behind Corniche and then buried on the deep rail when unable to make an impact when winding up fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-G1. The analytics don’t like him, but we do. In a race that we might be inclined to merely watch, we’ll give the edge to Newgrange every so slightly on top and also toss in Oviatt Class in rolling exotic play.

Notable Workouts:

Mackinnon (December 19, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.2h TT). Grade A-
View Workout Video
Was rank and tried to run off after leaving the pole, finally settled somewhat into the turn, then finished with a ton left without being asked while much best over Exactly Wendy (5f, 1:01.4h TT), drawing clear with powerful strides and then galloping out full of run. Hard to say if he’ll love dirt (most turf horses work great on the training track) but it’s certainly worth finding out. Plenty of natural talent, for sure, would love to see him drop his head and switch off in the morning.

Rockefeller (December 20, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.4h). Grade: B
View Workout Video
Broke off slightly behind Bronn (5f, 1:00.1h) and was ridden through the lane to eventually draw clear by a length approaching the wire before continuing out a full six furlongs on our watches to the seven-furlong pole, splits of :23.4, :35.3, :59.4 and 1:13.1. Not flashy but solid, was a graded stakes winner at a (one turn) mile in New York last time out, not really sure if he’ll improve around two turns.

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RACE 8: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 7-Luck; 2-Mucho Unusual

Forecast: Luck (TOC=7/5; ML=8/5) ran huge when narrowly missing in the Rodeo Drive S.-G1 over the local lawn during the fall meeting but then couldn’t quite seal the deal when missing by a head at 30 cents on the dollar in the Red Carpet H.-G3 at Del Mar in late November. She continues to shine in the morning, so we’ll give the R., Baltas-trained mare a chance to make amends in this year’s edition of the Robert J. Frankel S.-G3 over nine furlongs. The lightly-raced 5-year-old daughter of Kitten’s Joy retains F. Prat, and although the pace projection seems a bit soft and could compromise her late kick, we’re still expecting her to be along in time. Mucho Unusual (TOC=9/5; ML=5/2) is the one to fear most. She’s more tactical than Luck and in a race that could be run at a crawl in the early stages the veteran 6-year-old can be on the front end or in an equally comfortable stalking position. A six-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course, the T. Yakteen-trained mare picks up red-hot Johnny V., who was aboard her when she won this same race last year.

Notable Workouts:

Mucho Unusual (December 17, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:15h). Grade: B
View Workout Video
Settled behind Big Flame (same time) and finished about a half length back at the wire but was never asked while closing the gap in the final stages, final quarter mile in :25.2. Holds her form, obviously much more comfortable on grass.

Luck (December 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1h TT). Grade: B+
View Workout Video
Smooth as silk in solo training track drill for R. Baltas, never asked, final three furlongs in :12 flat and :35.3. Lost a couple of toughies but maintains her edge and can bounce back.

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RACE 9: Post: 4:05 PT Grade: B
Use (In order of preference): 6-As Time Goes By; 5-Park Avenue

Forecast: As Time Goes By (TOC=2/5; ML=8/5) is fresh from a game win in the Bayakoa S.-G3 at Del Mar in early December in what should serve as a confidence-building performance after getting chewed up stalking a suicidal pace in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff-G1 the previous month. A recent breezing workout – she couldn’t have looked sharper – indicates the B. Baffert-trained mare is ready for another top effort over a main track that she’s won three races and been three times second in six career outings. She’s most effective as the controlling speed but from her outside draw likely will employ stalk-and-pounce tactics that she can employ if the race shape dictates. The analytics are making it a one-horse race, but we’re inclined to include the rapidly-improving Park Avenue (TOC=12-1; ML=3-1) as well. She was in the parking lot every step of the way yet still managed to crush a first-level allowance field by five lengths (actual value at least twice that much, maybe more) at Los Alamitos last month, and while this task is significantly more difficult the daughter of Quality Road may be a lot better filly than given credit for by the analytics.

Notable Workouts:

Park Avenue (December 21, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.1h). Grade: B+
View Workout Video
Just coasting in easy solo half mile breeze, final quarter in :24 flat, quite sharp. Gets tested for class in the La Canada S. after demolishing entry-level allowance competition at Los Alamitos.

As Time Goes By (December 21, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4h). Grade B+
View Workout Video
Sharp as a tack while finishing a length clear of Beautiful Gift (4f, :49h) at the wire, breezing through the lane, never asked at any stage, :24 flat and :48.3 on our watches. Maintains her form.

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RACE 10: Post: 4:35 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference: 4-Aligato; 2-Brix; 7-Riding With Dino

Forecast: Aligato (TOC=5/2; ML=7/2) was a late scratch last Monday when his mile turf race was switched to the main track on late notice, so he’s back in the entries today in a six furlong turf sprint that looks right up his alley. The Kitten’s Joy gelding was unlucky when a troubled third (beaten a half-length) at this level over five furlongs on grass at Del Mar I mid-November and today, with an extra furlong to work with, the late-running five-year-old looks capable of tagging the speed with good racing luck. Brix (TOC=7-1; ML=4-1) also was victimized by poor luck when third, beaten less than two lengths, in a sprint over this course and distance last time out during the fall season. A prototype late-running turf sprinter, the R. Baltas-trained son of Twirling Candy is just 2-for-17 (with a combined eight seconds and thirds), so he’s hardly one to trust but we’re expecting the veteran gelding to make some noise from the quarter pole home. Riding With Dino (TOC=6-1; ML=4-1), in the money in his last eight starts, projects as a dangerous pace stalker/presser, and with the switch to F. Prat looks like a major player every step of the way. A close second in the same race Aligato exits, the son of Vronsky can be counted on to fire another big shot.

Notable Workouts:

Aligato (December 20, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h TT). Grade: B
View Workout Video
Some coaxing late but did well enough in solo training track drill for M. Glatt, splits of :24.2, :36.1 and 1:00.2, solid move while maintaining his form. Should route but has proven to be quite effective as a late-running turf sprinter.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2022, 08:41 AM

What You Need to Know - January 1, 2022

January 1, 2022

Jeff Siegel’s “What Your Need to Know”
January 1, 2022

Gulfstream Park Seventh Race – Post time: 3:05 ET
Of a Revolution is undefeated in two starts, both at Gulfstream Park, a maiden race last spring and then a first-level optional claimer off the layoff in mid-November. In his most recent victory, the Saffie Joseph, Jr.-trained colt missed the break and was pinched back to lose a few lengths, quickly made up the lost ground to be within range to the turn, swept on by on the far outside with an impressive turn of foot entering the lane and then dominated to the wire like a really nice colt. Today he’s tackling tougher in the Limehouse Stakes, but if he breaks cleanly and can secure a good early spot the son of Maclean’s Music should be capable of extending his perfect streak to three. A sharp recent team drill December 26 (5f, 1:00.1b) was visually quite pleasing and adds fuel to the fire. Listed at 4-1 on the morning line, he’s likely to provide good wagering value in the win pool and in the various exotics.

*

Oaklawn Park Ninth Race – Post time: 4:13 CT
This year’s edition of the Smarty Jones Stakes drew 14 entrants, so you can expect to see a mad scramble entering the clubhouse turn, with favorable early position at a premium. Dash Attack had the good fortune of drawing the rail post position, though he’ll have to leave cleanly to take full advantage of the situation. A debut maiden winner last month over this track and distance, the son of Munnings in that race was boxed in much of the way while taking plenty of dirt, but once clear entering the lane he accelerated nicely and was just finding his best stride approaching the wire before drawing clear with authority. His Beyer number (74) was quite acceptable under the circumstance, so this could be a decent colt, one that is better than his 12-1 morning line suggests. At that price he’s a gamble.

Home Brew, drawn comfortably in three post, shows rising speed figures in each outing, most recently establishing the lead and dominating throughout to register a convincing first-level allowance score. We don’t consider the Street Sense to be a need-the-lead type, so Florent Geroux has options, and if this colt continues to develop for Brad Cox, he’ll have plenty to say in the rich 3-year stakes races leading up to the spring classics.
We’ll prefer the better price on top – Dash Attack – but rolling exotic plays should find room on their ticket for Home Brew as well.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2022, 08:42 AM

Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis-$25,000 Guaranteed Pool

January 1, 2022 | By Al Cimaglia

Cal Expo kicks off 2022 with a 9-race card. The betting headliner of the evening starts in Race 6, the 0.20 Pick 4. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

7-Gorgeous For Real (8/5)-Drew off at 1/5 with a 57.2 back half against this kind. This is the basement class so anything could happen but will be tough to beat with the same effort.
8-Dashboard (4-1)-Put in a flat line last week and was Kennedy's choice over #5. This 10-year-old can dial it up on occasion and has not been in this cheap all meet.

Race 7

1-Witch Hunter (3-1)-The 1-29 record in 2021 can be cause for pause. But drops plus could be in a spot to get sucked around and use one nice brush down the lane. Using in an up-for-grabs affair and will hope is ignored at the windows.
5-Time For T (7/2)-Comes off an even effort in a needed start after a Judges scratch. Plano sticks and the last trip wasn't the best. Maybe tonight the journey will be smoother and will show improvement in the 4th start for the Schneider barn.
6-Infinite Horizon (15-1)-Will toss last off a sick scratch and gets a positive driver change with Husted taking the lines. Could take a picture if races back to its 11-26 effort.
9-Outlawnuthnbutsmrt (4-1)-Couldn't seal the deal at this level going off at 1/5 last week. This will be the 2nd start on Lasix and the post draw will make it a challenge. But has the speed to down this crew and the price should be a lot better.

Race 8

5-Bettor's Promise (1-1)-Husted's choice over #4 drops again looking for an overdue win. The only picture last year came at Hawthorne in 152.2 on 9-10. This pilot drove him the following start and maybe this will be a wake-up call.
6-Skyway Raider (3-1)-Can't completely trust the morning line choice. Grundy could land in the pocket behind #5 and make the most of an efficient trip.

Race 9

2-Shes A Showstopper (5-1)-Has hit the board in 3 of 4 CalX starts and has taken 1 picture. Raced well last week following breaking stride at the start. Stewart is back in the bike and should be forwardly placed throughout.
3-Jennie Ann (7/2)-Makes the 3rd start at the meet and gets some class relief. Does good work at CalX (21-5-4-5) and Kennedy should be out and rolling. Could lane on the point and not look back.
6-Oneida Blue Chip (5/2)-Banked over $50k on smaller ovals last year but is 0-3 at CalX. Plested trainee should like the company and might be sitting on a big try.

0.20 Pick 4

7,8/1,5,6,9/5,6/2,3,6
Total Bet=$9.60

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2022, 08:42 AM

Saturday Gulfstream Late Pick 4 Analysis

December 31, 2021 | By Johnny D

Happy New Year! And Happy Birthday to horses of all ages!

If I had carrots I’d share ‘em…with the horses, that is. Unfortunately, all that’s left in the cupboard are some homemade pizzelles left over from Christmas and I’ve got plans those this afternoon during the races. Like so many, I’ve advised the better half that beginning Jan. 2 we go ‘spartan!’ That means, in a nutshell, that there will be no pizzelles in the cupboard and nothing to eat that won’t fit in a nutshell!

By the way, if you happen to be a horse, check back then. I might have carrots in the fridge.

Obviously, we’d all like to begin the New Year in the black, so here’s a look at Saturday’s Gulfstream Late Pick 4 with an eye toward solving puzzles (with pizzelles). There’s a decent chance for this sequence to pay well. Lower-level claimers going a route of ground over Tapeta often are a bit of a scramble and there’s two of them in the mix. A turf stakes route for sophs and a 3-year-old dirt mile added money event round out the offering.

Some Saturday To-Be-Determined Gulfstream races will be ‘Money Back Special’ opportunities where players can get back up to $10 if their wagered horse finishes second or third. Check the site for more information and to register for the promotion. If you’re going to bet at least $10 to Win on any Saturday Gulfstream races, you might as well register and get a bit of ‘loser’s’ insurance in case you’re slightly off in any of the promo races. The deal’s good for some TBD Saturday Santa Anita races, too.

You also should be planning to play the 2022 version of $60k Beat the Host! If you’ve been with Xpressbet for a while, you know that Beat the Host is an affordable, fun and profitable way to play the races from Gulfstream and Santa Anita. For nearly a decade and one-half players have matched wits with a roster of industry handicappers and fellow account holders.

Beat the Host begins next Saturday and is offered weekly in Jan. and Feb. There are $2,000 in weekly prizes to top players with the highest earnings. ‘Beat the Host’ just once to quality for the $15k Championship event. Don’t miss a week’s competition because there’s $22,500 in cumulative earnings prizes as well as a $6,500 Sweep the Host bonus that goes to any player who can whip hosts in all 8 weeks!

Register once and play each Saturday by making a ‘live’ $10 Win wager on one horse in each of 10 competition races. Since wagers are ‘live,’ all you need to do is to pick a winner or two and you’ll enjoy a break-even shot at some great prizes.

Let’s begin the New Year the right way together. And ‘no,’ you can’t have a bite of my pizzelle.

Race 8
A thorn between two roses, this $12,5k claimer at one mile and 70 yards for fillies and mares over Tapeta bridges the $100k Limehouse and the $100k Dania Beach. There are several ways to attack this race with lightly raced and stretch out runners adding options to those emerging from common events.

#2 Perfect Kimberly S just missed one back and a repeat of that ought to make her tough. She was favored last out in a race common to many of these. She broke from post 9 of 10 and ran evenly. Before that she was second in the other most common race to most of these. Paco Lopez, who rode her to finish second returns in the saddle. She has just 1 win in 12 starts, but that’s a common theme in here. She deserves respect.

#3 La Rusia attracts top jock Saez for 26% trainer Barboza. They’re surprisingly just 9% over the last 43 mounts together. This filly has some speed and a great post to lay close up early. The issue she must address is 1 win in 26 starts and 11 seconds! Might want to use her in the 2-hole…Duh.

#5 Tidal Waters ran Ok against better, so the class drop helps. Question here is the distance—her first past five furlongs and initial around two turns. Trainer’s not hot this meet (1-17) and jock combo not significant. Don’t know about the finish but she’ll be in front for a long while.

#6 Askew has just two starts and she won one of those—last out here at this distance for maiden $16k. Whose to say she’s not this good? Top jock Gaffalione replaces Leparoux in the saddle.

#7 Hardly Social was second last out in a common race at 21-1. Fillies and mares at this level usually aren’t very consistent so it’s a reach to expect her to repeat that fine effort right back. She’s 1-16 lifetime and finished a troubled sixth, beaten nearly 12 lengths in the previous common race.

#9 Khosea most recently finished third twice in common races with this group. Last out, her second start for trainer Soto, she broke from the outside 10-hole, raced wide and flattened out. She could be expected to perform similarly in here since she breaks from the 9 hole in this 10-horse field. 1 win in 14 starts with 3 thirds tells her story.

Use: #2, #5, #6

Race 9
Newly turned 3-year-olds get to tussle at one mile on the turf course for $100k in the Dania Beach with rails at 45 feet. There’s not a lot separating these 8 runners and the form is a bit jumbled as these youngsters sort themselves out. What is clear is that trainer Todd Pletcher is off to a torrid Gulf Championship Meeting. He’s hitting at 46% and has two runners in here. That might be enough for some to just use those 2 and move one, saving the headache of attempting to sort these out any further.

#1 Father Glado moves to turf for the first time off a maiden win. Probably not for us.

#2 Smokin’ T broke maiden in his fourth start, third on turf, for trainer McGaughey, who often races runners into shape. He’s improved with each start and will need to move again as he switches his game from Aqueduct to Gulfstream and maiden to stakes.

#3 K. C. Chief has speed and will attempt to steal this race. He should not be able to. He is sharp and fit, always a nice combo.

#4 Biz Biz Buz is entered in a race on New Year’s Eve and could scratch from this. He’s done best work around one turn.

#5 Chanceux made an initial start sprinting on Belmont dirt and then won sprinting over Aqueduct turf. Saez rides for Pletcher, a 23% combo. Noted above the trainer is an incredible 46% at the current meet. This guy has speed and the jock’s not afraid to use it. He’s the favorite based on a bunch of factors but he really hasn’t proven to be that much better than the rest. Also on his side is that he’s made just two starts and has room to improve.

#6 No Nay Franklin just missed in the $75k Armed Forces stakes here in an off-the-turf event in September. He also just missed first out in a five furlong maiden race. Add it up and he’s still a maiden coming off a freshening since September. Pass.

#7 Gingrich romped in a yielding turf maiden Keeneland event in October. He also ran well in two other two-turn grass tries at Kentucky Downs and Ellis Park. This will be his fifth different turf course experience in as many races. He’s not out of this as a late threat and Paco Lopez is along for the ride.

#8 Grand Sonata also hails from the 46% Pletcher barn and has improved with each start. He’s raced on turf and dirt, but his only win came in an off-the-turf maiden at Keeneland. This post is no bargain, but jockey Gaffalione should have somewhere to drop in to save ground in this short field.

Two Pletchers are Better Than One: #5, #8
Hate This Race: #7

Race 10
This $150k stakes race at one mile is for birthday boy 3-year-olds and often includes those that are a cut below the crème of the crop type sophs.

#2 Strike Hard did just that in his most recent effort when he blitzed 7 first level allowance foes in a $75k optional claimer. He’s sharp, has stakes experience when nowhere in the Gr. 3 Iroquois at Churchill and has 2 wins in 4 starts at Gulfstream.

#5 Skippylongstocking finished four lengths behind #2 Strike Hard after forcing a legit pace. He adds blinkers for 24% trainer Joseph, a 24% winning move. He also has Churchill stakes experience, fourth of 7 in the $200k Street Sense. Also, this time #2 Strike Hard draws inside of ‘Skippy and that might favor this guy.

Price Says: #5
Repeat Last to Win: #2

Race 11
Close out the first Gulfstream card of the New Year with a $10k Claimer at a one mile and one-sixteenth over the relatively new Tapeta surface. These races on ‘plastics’ often are challenging, partly because we don’t have a great deal of information to go on as to which horses might or might not like the surface. That’s not exactly the case in here as many of these have made starts over the local Tapeta.

#3 Uhtred, who probably will be favored off the claim by 22% first after trainer change Carlos Delgado, gets top billing. The trainer and jockey Lopez hit at 28%. The 6-year-old gelding has 3 in the money finishes in 4 Tapeta starts. A 2 for the last 18 record does give pause for concern.

#4 Timmy M. also starts for a new trainer in Pita who’s just 13% with new acquisitions. This one has been in the exacta in 3 starts over Tapeta (his last 3 starts) and races from off the pace.

#5 Farley just missed in a common race with #3 Uhtred last out. He’s added a sharp :59 4/5 workout since and has 2 in the money finishes in as many starts at this level over Tapeta. He’s 8-years-old but, apparently, no one’s told him his age.

#6 Marisa’s Mission is the youngster in the field at 4 and with just 10 lifetime starts. He’s got 3 wins and 1 out 2 on Tapeta, including a third. This will be his first start for as cheap as $10k. He has shown some pace in recent races and should be a decent price at 8-1 on the morning line.

#7 Ambassador Jim is a 7-year-old complete horse making his second start for $10k and he fits in here, too. He was in contention before being gobbled up in the lane by #4 Timmy M. Like the rest in here, except for #6 Marisa’s Mission, he’s 1-for-forever at 1 for his last 13. Winning rider Panici returns.

Youth May be Served: #6 Marisa’s Mission
Not Done Yet: #3 Uhtred, #5 Farley, #7 Ambassador Jim

Race On!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2022, 08:43 AM

Jon White: Untested Flightline Elicits Rave Reviews

December 29, 2021 | By Jon White

Flightline was absolutely, positively dazzling in last Sunday’s Grade I Malibu Stakes on the opening-day card of Santa Anita’s winter-spring meeting.

How dazzling? His performance undoubtedly caused many jaws to drop on the part of those who watched him in person, on television, on a computer, on a cell phone or using any other kind of device.

How dazzling? His trainer, John Sadler, said Monday in Ed Golden’s Santa Anita stable notes that “all has to go right, but we might be looking at a historic-type horse before it’s all over.” Sadler compared training Flightline at this stage to being LeBron James’ high school basketball coach.

How dazzling? Flightline won in isolated splendor by 11 1/2 lengths. So far his rear end pretty much is all his opponents have seen when running against him. He’s won three career starts by a combined 37 1/2 lengths. As for his rear end, it has quite a scar on it, stemming from an incident early in 2020 at Mayberry Farm in Ocala, Fla. Bloodstock agent David Ingordo, who was instrumental in Flightline fetching $1 million at public auction, was visiting that farm one morning when he heard “this big crash, a loud bang,” he told Ray Paulick of the Paulick Report. Flightline “scared himself, something startled him. He had his tack on and was ready to go out, but caught his butt on a stall door latch. It was a pretty deep wound and took a long time to heal.”

How dazzling? Flightline’s final time of 1:21.37 for seven furlongs was considerably faster (approximately 15 lengths faster) than Kalypso’s 1:24.78 clocking in her 4 3/4-length win the Grade I La Brea Stakes for 3-year-old fillies at the same distance on the same card.

How dazzling? Though Flightline ran fast, he was pure poetry in motion. He won so effortlessly that it literally was nothing more than a stroll through the park -- Santa Anita Park.

How dazzling? Consider what Flightline’s rider, Flavien Prat, said after winning by such a big margin and in such a splendid time. “I was in cruise control the whole race, galloping freely,” Prat said.

How dazzling? Flightline made six quality -- repeat, quality -- other Malibu participants look like they were bottom-level claimers.

How dazzling? Flightline registered a whopping 118 Beyer Speed Figure. It’s the top Beyer of the year, surpassing Baby Yoda’s 114 in a Sept. 4 race at Saratoga and the 114 recorded by Flightline in a Sept. 5 race at Del Mar.

How dazzling? Flightline not only became only the sixth horse since 2004 to record three triple-digit Beyers in their first three career starts, his average Beyer of 112.33 for the three races is the best of the six horses (Flightline 112.33, Discreet Cat 111.00, Roman Threat 105.67, Lost in the Fog 104.67, Atreides 104.00 and Justify 104.00). That’s according to what Ed DeRosa wrote for horseracingnation.com.

How dazzling? Flightline’s 118 Beyer was higher than all but two of the many Breeders’ Cup winners at Santa Anita in 2003, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2019. The only two of those many Breeders’ Cup winners to get a bigger Beyer Speed Figure than Flightline’s 118 were Cajun Beat, who recorded a 120 in the 2003 Sprint, and Arrogate, who likewise received a 120 in the 2016 Classic.

How dazzling? Flightline recorded the highest Beyer Speed Figure by a Malibu winner going back to 1991, the first year that Beyers for this race are listed in the American Racing Manual. The previous top Beyer by a Malibu winner going back to 1991 had been Powis’ Castle’s 113 all the way back in 1994.

How dazzling? Flightline made a huge $1 million purchase price appear to be a tremendous bargain.

How dazzling? Flightline’s performance stimulated a number of Twitter tributes, such as tweets by:

--Broadcaster Britney Eurton (Flightline = Freak. “That gave me goosebumps” -- Flavien Prat. Us too…Us too!)

--New York broadcaster Andy Serling (Flightline gallops home in 1:21.37 in his expected Malibu triumph. That’s 3.42 seconds faster than the La Brea. He is an absolute monster. Maybe better than advertised. Wow!)

--David Aragona, my morning-line oddsmaker counterpart at Aqueduct, Belmont Park and Saratoga (Flightline possesses the sort of talent we’ve seen only a handful of times over the past few decades. I just hope he stays healthy so we get to see him strut his stuff in even more prestigious races next year.)

--Churchill Downs track announcer Travis Stone (I’m trying to think of a more powerful and impressive performance and keep going all the way back to Ghostzapper. It’s high praise but what Flightline just did is worthy of it. Wow!)

--1stbet.com analyst and handicapper Jeff Siegel (Fortunate to have seen in person Buckpasser win the Malibu in 1966, Damascus in ’68 and Spectacular Bid in 1980. All became Horse of the Year. Flightline has that type of talent but there’s still plenty of work to be done. With @johnsadler in charge, he’ll have his chance)

BEST MALE SPRINTER OF 2021?

Of course, if it’s horse racing, then it’s a given that there will be those who see the cup as half empty. For instance, John Perrotta, author of several books on racing, tweeted Sunday in an obvious reference to Flightline: “I wish everyone flinging the superlatives today had been around to see Dr Fager.”

Yes, Dr. Fager unquestionably was one of the all-time greats. I have Dr. Fager ranked No. 7 on my list of the Top 100 Racehorses of the 20th Century to have raced in North America. My Top 10 consists of 1. Man o’ War, 2. Secretariat, 3. Citation, 4. Kelso, 5. Spectacular Bid, 6. Native Dancer, 7. Dr. Fager, 8. Seattle Slew, 9. Count Fleet and 10. Affirmed.

Look, I agree with the notion that Flightline, at this point anyway, is not on a par with Dr. Fager. And while I consider it doubtful that Flightline will go on and make the case that he is in the same league with Dr. Fager, at this point it’s also not impossible for him to do so.

In any event, speaking for myself, I will go so far as to say that I have not seen a better sprinter this year than Flightline.

This is exactly why I wait until after the year’s major racing is completed before filling out my Eclipse Awards ballot. In light of what happened in the Malibu, my vote for champion male sprinter now will go to Flightline.

I am sure that there will be lots of support among Eclipse Award voters for Aloha West as champion male sprinter. After all, he won the BC Sprint by a nose over Dr. Schivel. Will I criticize anyone who votes for Aloha West? I certainly won’t.

But as someone voting for Flightline, I will point out what Flightline did vs. Dr. Schivel compared to what Aloha West did against that same foe.

Dr. Schivel came within a nose of Aloha West. In the Malibu, Dr. Schivel finished seventh, 19 1/2 lengths behind Flightline.

In fairness to Dr. Schivel, an explanation for such a poor performance on his part in Sunday’s Malibu could be that he was showing signs of illness Monday morning, as Mark Glatt said in a Daily Racing Form story written by Steve Andersen.

“He had a temperature [Monday morning],” Glatt said. “I don’t think he’s sick-sick. We’ll see how he comes out of it in the next few days. It seems to be a viral thing. He might be coming down with something.”

Andersen went on to write that even with a top performance, Glatt thought Dr. Schivel would have been a “distant second” in the Malibu. Flightline’s win left Glatt in awe.

“That’s the most impressive horse I’ve seen with my own eyeballs,” said Glatt. “I was born the year Secretariat won the [Kentucky] Derby. I’ve seen footage. I’ve never witnessed a performance like that.”

Dr. Schivel was a Grade I and Grade II winner this year. He defeated older rivals both times.

Will I criticize anyone who votes for Jackie’s Warrior as champion male sprinter? I certainly won’t. After Jackie’s Warrior won one Grade I sprint and three Grade II races this year, he was sent off as the 1-2 favorite in the BC Sprint. And if he had won the BC Sprint, I probably would be voting for him as champion male sprinter.

But Jackie’s Warrior ran SIXTH in the BC Sprint, 4 1/2 lengths behind Aloha West and Dr. Schivel. Again, that’s the same Dr. Schivel who finished far behind Flightline in the Malibu.

My guess is Flightline will not be voted champion male sprinter because of not making more than three starts during the year. That’s fine. I get it. I just think the “needs-to-make-a-lot-of-starts” argument does not hold much water these days when horses do not race as often or as much as they once did.

Keep in mind Flightline does have as many Grade I victories to his credit this year as Aloha West and Jackie’s Warrior. Each one of these 3-year-old colts won exactly one Grade I race in 2021.

My vote for Flightline despite the fact that he made only three starts during the year reminds me of a somewhat similar situation in 1976. It was the first year I had the honor to be an Eclipse Award voter. My vote for champion 2-year-old male of 1976 went to Seattle Slew, who had made just three starts that year.

In my view, Seattle Slew’s scintillating 9 3/4-length win in the one-mile Champagne Stakes demonstrated that he was head-and-shoulders above the other 2-year-olds of 1976. In the Champagne, he trounced the highly regarded For the Moment. With a final clocking in the Champagne of 1:34 2/5, Seattle Slew at that time had run the fastest mile in history by a 2-year-old.

“Seasoned observers shook their heads in admiration as he completed his mile in 1:34 2/5,” Joe Hirsch wrote of Seattle Slew’s Champagne triumph in the American Racing Manual. “Thirty-four years earlier, another free-running colt named Count Fleet won the Champagne with a 1:34 4/5 clocking that remained a record for 2-year-olds for many years. Count Fleet, of course, went on to sweep the Triple Crown races at 3.”

Also to Seattle Slew’s credit, he won all three of his races at 2 in the span of just 27 days.

But there were many who felt that the 1976 Eclipse Award for champion 2-year-old male should have gone to Royal Ski or Run Dusty Run because they had raced a lot more than Seattle Slew.

Run Dusty Run and Royal Ski each made nine starts at 2. They each won six races.

It turned out that Seattle Slew was indeed voted champion 2-year-old male. In the book “Seattle Slew,” author Frank Cady noted that Run Dusty Run’s trainer, Smiley Adams, was irked that the Eclipse Award went to someone who did not race more.

“Seattle Who?” Cady quoted Adams as saying. “It don’t matter how easy he did it, he only had three races. It’s not right.”

Seattle Slew, like the aforementioned Count Fleet, was a 2-year-old champion who went on to sweep the Triple Crown the following year.

By the way, in 2014, yours truly and Millie Ball interviewed Billy Turner, who was Seattle Slew’s trainer in 1976 and 1977. Turner joined us by phone on HRTV’s “Race Day America.”

During that interview, much to my surprise, Turner revealed that he actually had received some hate mail when Seattle Slew was a 3-year-old.

“If Seattle Slew doesn’t win the Triple Crown, then I haven’t done my job,” Turner recalled saying when Slew was 3. Evidently, that statement rubbed some fans of 1973 Triple Crown winner Secretariat the wrong way, a sentiment they expressed in the form of hate mail to Turner.

How sad is that? How could anyone have been so blinded by their love of Secretariat that they could not appreciate Seattle Slew’s greatness and the outstanding job Turner did training the colt?

At least Turner is fortunate that the Secretariat lovers/Seattle Slew haters did not have social media at their disposal back in 1977.

GOFUNDME PAGE FOR BILLY TURNER

Speaking of Seattle Slew and his trainer in both 1976 and 1977, a GoFundMe page has been set up to help Turner manage rising medical costs associated with rapidly spreading cancer.

Turner “was diagnosed with prostate cancer almost two years ago, which also had spread to and weakened his bones,” Pavla Nygaard wrote on the GoFundMe page. “He was admitted to the hospital Dec. 17, 2021, after he was suffering significant shortness of breath. There was a lot of fluid drained from his lungs. Unfortunately, testing of the fluid revealed that his cancer spread to his lungs. He has chosen not to receive further treatment for his cancer. On Monday, Dec. 27, he will be transferred home for hospice care. He is in good spirits and looking forward to being back with his wife Pat and in the comfort of a home environment.”

Pavla and her husband, Erik, have known Turner and his wife since 2006.

“Billy had trained a handful of horses for us prior to his retirement from training, including the very first racehorse we ever brought, Play It True, who won her first race,” Pavla wrote.

Play It True, a Yes It’s True filly, won a six-furlong maiden special weight race by 1 1/2 lengths in a 55-1 upset when unveiled at Aqueduct on Nov. 5, 2006.

“As a brilliant yet introverted trainer who was always comfortable with horses but not always so around people or quite ready for the fame that followed him throughout the Triple Crown trail, Billy battled a few demons with alcohol addiction over points in his lifetime, yet succeeded slaying that dragon with his wife and diligent AA meetings,” Pavla wrote. “Billy is an exceptional horseman who had touched the lives of many others in the Thoroughbred industry. His stories of Seattle Slew’s journey through the challenging 1977 Triple Crown winning campaign have shown a deep understanding and love of the horse, training the horse as an individual rather than fitting him into a program. Seattle Slew’s legend lives on through many Thoroughbred individuals in racing, as well as those in Thoroughbreds who have found careers outside of racing.”

As a matter of fact, Seattle Slew’s name appears in Flightline’s pedigree. Flightline is by Tapit, who in turn is by Pulpit, who in turn is by A.P. Indy, who in turn is by Seattle Slew.

“Billy and Pat are facing increased healthcare costs, moving costs and unforeseen costs relating to his upcoming hospice care and beyond,” Pavla wrote.

“The world of racing owes much to Billy Turner’s masterful guidance of Seattle Slew and his legacy. It will mean much to Billy to have the financial support of his and Seattle Slew’s fans, as well as prayers and words of encourangement.”

The Nygaards pledged to match up to $10,000 of the funds raised.

SHAM STAKES SELECTIONS

Not surprisingly, Bob Baffert holds a strong hand in Saturday’s Grade III Sham Stakes. The Hall of Famer has entered Grade III Nashua Stakes winner Rockefeller and the promising Newgrange.

Baffert won the Sham in 2020 with Authentic and in 2021 with Life Is Good.
Authentic would go on to win the Grade I Kentucky Derby and Grade I Breeders’ Cup Classic en route to being voted 2020 Horse of the Year.

Life Is Good subsequently won Santa Anita’s Grade II San Felipe Stakes for Baffert in March. After that, Life Is Good captured the Grade II Kelso Handicap in September and Grade I Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile in November for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher.

Baffert’s seven Sham victories is the record for a trainer. His other winners of the race were Wild and Wise (2001), Bob and John (2006), Midnight Hawk (2014), Collected (2016) and McKinzie (2018).

Rockefeller has won two of three career starts. He exited the maiden ranks by 2 1/4 lengths going six furlongs at Del Mar on Aug. 28, ran fourth in Santa Anita’s Grade I American Pharoah Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on Oct. 1, then won the one-mile Nashua by 2 3/4 lengths on Nov. 7.

Newgrange, a Kentucky-bred Violence colt, goes into the Sham off a 1 1/2-length debut win in a six-furlong maiden special weight race at Del Mar on Nov 28.

I’m going to take a shot and make Oviatt Class my top pick in the Sham. Trained by Keith Desormeaux, Oviatt Class lost his first two races, then won a one-mile maiden special weight contest by 4 1/4 lengths at Del Mar on Aug. 27.

Oviatt Class gave a good account of himself when he ran third in the American Pharoah. He not only beat Rockefeller that day, he showed late energy on a track that was not kind to come-from-behind runners. In other words, Oviatt Class’s effort that day was better than it looks on paper.

It also should be noted that the one-two finishers in the American Pharoah, Corniche and Pappacap, came back to finish one-two in the same order in the Grade I BC Juvenile at Del Mar on Nov. 5. Oviatt Class ended up in a dead heat for fifth in the BC Juvenile, but he did not have the best of trips that day.

The one time they have met, Oviatt Class outran Rockefeller by 3 1/4 lengths on the same track they will be racing on this Saturday. So why not go with Oviatt Class in the Sham when he probably will be a better price than Rockefeller?

Mackinnon is an intriguing Sham entrant. He’s switching to the dirt after finishing third in the Grade I BC Juvenile Turf at Del Mar on Nov. 5. Prior to the Breeders’ Cup, he had reeled off three consecutive grass victories, including the Del Mar Juvenile Turf on Sept. 6 and Zuma Beach at Santa Anita on Oct. 3.

Trained by Doug O’Neill, Mackinnon finished fourth in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight sprint at Santa Anita on May 9. That was his first race, though. He’s eligible to do much better on the dirt this time, especially inasmuch as he is a son of American Pharoah, who was a Triple Crown winner on dirt in 2015.

Completing the field of five in the Sham is Degree of Risk, who will be competing on dirt for the first time. In his most recent start, the Kentucky-bred Cairo Prince ridgling ran second in the Gold Rush Stakes on a synthetic surface at Golden Gate Fields on Dec. 4.

In his only start in a graded stakes race to date, Degree of Risk finished third in Woodbine’s Grade I Summer Stakes on turf Sept. 19 for trainer Eoin Harty.

Below are my selections for the Sham:

1. Oviatt Class
2. Rockefeller
3. Mackinnon
4. Newgrange

EDUARDO INDA PASSES WAY

It was with much sadness that I read in last Sunday’s Santa Anita’s stable notes that Eduardo Inda had passed away on Dec. 22, according to his family. He was 78.

Inda trained Riboletta, who was voted a 2000 Eclipse Award as champion older female.

But even though Inda trained a multiple Grade I-winning champion in Riboletta, he probably is best known as Hall of Fame trainer Ron McAnally’s assistant all through during the glory years of the great gelding John Henry, a huge fan favorite.

I got to know Inda quite well in the early 1980s. I was a reporter/columnist for the Daily Racing Form on the Southern California circuit during that time. As such, it was incumbent on me to visit the McAnally barn just about every single day all year long. The main purpose of the visit always was to check on John Henry, who was such a big deal in those days that he warranted such daily attention from a DRF reporter/columnist.

The DRF’s current national correspondent, Jay Privman (selected to be inducted into the National Museum of Racing’s Joe Hirsch Media Roll of Honor next year), put it quite well when, in his obituary on Inda, he described him as “a kind, friendly man with a ready laugh.”

The job that McAnally, Inda and exercise rider Lewis Cenicola did with John Henry was nothing less than spectacular. For Team McAnally, John Henry won seven Eclipse Awards, including Horse of the Year titles in 1981 and 1984. The only horse to win more Eclipse Awards, a total of eight, was another great gelding, Forego.

When John Henry was voted Horse of the Year in 1984, he was a 9-year-old. I’ve said it many times before and I will say it again that I seriously doubt we will ever see another 9-year-old Horse of the Year.

John Henry was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1990.

Inda first worked for trainer Warren Stute prior to his more than 20 years alongside McAnally. During his time with McAnally, Inda also played a key role in the care of such Eclipse Award winners as Bayakoa, Paseana and Tight Spot.

After retiring from training a decade ago, Inda continued to live near Santa Anita.

Cenicola died of liver and pancreatic cancer at the age of 66 on Jan. 8, 2012.

McAnally, now 89, remains an active trainer of what is now a small stable at Santa Anita.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2022, 08:43 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fair Grounds - Race #2
Picks Notes
#6 K C Rocket He might be slightly the 'other Stall' in here with his stablemate drawn on the rail with some decent form, and this guy will be making his turf debut while racing as a gelding for the first time. Dangerous here.
#7 Beduin Fighter He has been knocking on the door since turning back to turf sprints, and he has the right kind of pace to keep in the mix early from the wide draw. Tough with his best, but think he's overbet and doesn't have to win this.
#1 Prairie He'll have to work out a trip from the fence here, but he has some formidable turf sprint running lines and a bit of versatility to adapt to the race from the rail draw.
Race Summary K C Rocket is bred to handle this turf dash just fine, and he may have some upside as a gelding here as he returns off the layoff.

Fair Grounds - Race #6
Picks Notes
#4 Sweet N Sassy Her first turf effort was pretty solid when she made a nice move before flattening out late, but that was also her first try around two turns, so there is a real chance she's going to be tighter this time around to sustain that run.
#5 Maxine Machine Blinkers go on here, and that might help her out a bit as her recent running lines have left her with too much to do late. Wouldn't be a surprise to see her step up a bit here.
#3 Misthaven She'll get Lasix for the first time here, and she gets some class relief while dropping out of a couple stakes tries in her latest starts. Have to think her baseline is competitive with these.
Race Summary Sweet N Sassy can probably benefit from having a turf route race under her belt, and she's not too far off what it would take to land this based on that last try. Chance at a mid-range price?

Fair Grounds - Race #8
Picks Notes
#6 Beyond Mybudget Her only turf try came going 10 furlongs, so this is a new game for her today, but her overall sprint form looks competitive. She has been really reliable in recent starts, so let's see if she can handle the new footing at a price.
#7 Elle Z Dangerous speed has the pace/draw edge on a capable forward runner from the rail, but she does seem likely to have a bit of company in the early going that could leave her vulnerable late.
#2 Yes It's Ginger Her form has really soured in her last three starts, but it's encouraging to see the connections keep her in a spot like this as she makes her second start of the meet. Best stuff keeps her in the mix -- your guess is as good as mine as to whether she's bringing that today.
Race Summary Beyond Mybudget tries a turf dash for the first time in a tough spot, but she has solid synthetic form at Woodbine and might be rolling late from off what will hopefully be a contested pace.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2022, 08:43 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#1 Kathleen O Overcame a poor start and worked her way through opponents and mud and took her debut by a head at Aqueduct; clearly a talented filly.
#3 Surreal Fantasy Ran away with a 13-length maiden win at Tampa, and while the competition is much better, her best might be good enough.
#5 Jumeirah Just missed in her first local start and can made a serious run vs. these.
Race Summary Kathleen O. was sensational in the final furlong of her only start and gets some extra ground here.

Gulfstream Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#5 Opalina Made up considerable ground for 5th in the G2 Jessamine at Keeneland and is back to where she broke her maiden by 12.
#7 Louella Street Didn't reach contention in the Tepin at Aqueduct; broke her maiden two back at Laurel and should improve in this one.
#4 Ocean Safari Was third in her latest and has the speed to be a factor throughout.
Race Summary Opalina has been against good company and likely has the best closing move in here.

Gulfstream Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#2 O Captain Romped in his only start, which came over this strip, and he can take it to this group early.
#7 Bueno Bueno Was sharp in two straight wins at Ellis Park and should be tough in his first since July.
#5 Lightening Larry Ran an even second in the Inaugural at Tampa Bay last out and can press throughout.
Race Summary O Captain was dominant in his only appearance and will be difficult to beat if he runs back to that performance.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2022, 08:44 AM

Jeff Nahill’s Santa Anita opinions for Saturday, Jan. 1 (First post noon)

FIRST RACE: 1-11-2-1
SECOND RACE: 3-1-2-4
THIRD RACE: 7-4-2-1
FOURTH RACE: 2-5-1-6
FIFTH RACE: 1-5-6-7
SIXTH RACE: 2-1-6-4
SEVENTH RACE: 2-3-4-5
EIGHTH RACE: 3-2-7-1
NINTH RACE: 4-6-1-3
10TH RACE: 4-7-5-11 (BEST BET)