Sunday 1/2/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #3
Picks Notes
#3 Stellar Sound Was fourth in her last out and in her best races she was slightly off the pace and made a strong run; she comes out of two-turn races and should have something for the drive.
#3 Edgeway Even-money morning line favorite was second in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint and it will take some running to beat here; she has lost some races that were not at tough as this.
#4 Merneith Won three of her last four and has not raced since her G2 Santa Monica win in February; has good works and is in a tough spot for her return.
Race Summary Stellar Sound should be able to follow a fast pace and turning back from longer distances could work in her favor.

Santa Anita - Race #8
Picks Notes
#7 Shoppingforpharoah Was sharp in both turf races, including in his maiden win, and tired on the Tapeta when she was sent to Golden Gate; returns to grass and can get back to good form.
#6 Bellabel Comes off a win in Ireland and lands in a good race for her first U.S. appearance.
#5 Helens Well Close well in the G3 Jimmy Durante and her class may rise to the top here.
Race Summary Shoppingforpharoah was sharp in a maiden turf score and looks good enough to take on this more experienced competition.

Santa Anita - Race #10
Picks Notes
#3 Cabo Spirit Broke his maiden two back and came back for a bang-up third in the Cecil B. DeMille at Del Mar; clearly at the top of his game and a big factor in this.
#4 Maglev Makes his first U.S. start after running in Great Britain; has been in nothing but sprints and likely has some speed that will make him dangerous.
#8 Boise Has won two of three and comes off a win at Golden Gate returns to turf; was fourth in a turf stakes at Del Mar.
Race Summary Cabo Spirit comes off a big effort and proved he belongs at this level; keeps Victor Espinoza, which certainly don't hurt.

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Free Winners for Sunday, January 2nd 2022 from THE LEGEND!
FREE HORSE PICKS
FAIR GROUNDS
RACE #7
TIME: 5:05 PM EST
PICK: BET #6 Intrepid Heart 3/1 odds to win @ Bovada

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Laurel Park picks and ponderings Jan. 2, 2022
by Frank Vespe

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $1,170 Super High 5 — $0 Late Pick 5 — $0
ANALYSIS

RACE 1: CLAIMING $5,000 N3L, 4yo and up, 6 furlongs

5-4-2-3
Penn shipper #5 Pay the Kid (9-5) has run three decent races at a higher level on his home track, takes an appropriate drop here against a middling field… #4 Seize the Day (8-1) has the occasional competitive effort and will look to hit the ground running off a five-month vacation. Trainer Feliciano is 3-for-11 (27%) off similar layoffs… #2 Bardolino (5-2) drops off evenish efforts versus better…

RACE 2: CLAIMING $25,000, 3yo, 7 furlongs

4-1-5-6
Top choice #4 Stevethevandriver (6-1) showed a completely new dimension last time out: after having been up close to the pace and usually fading in his first six starts, he came from well off it after stumbling at the start to get up at the wire. The added ground seems like it should be fine, he’ll get Lasix on, and this guy has the look of a horse heading in the right direction… #1 Rustys Gfivefifty (3-1) gave a good account of himself last out versus similar… #5 Knowhowiknow (2-1) graduated easily last out at Churchill and will make his first start in the Farrior barn. Note that though Farrior has a strong record first off the claim, he is 0-for-5 in that situation with horses who broke their maidens last out…

RACE 3: MAIDEN CLAIMING $40,000, 3yo fillies, 7 furlongs

5-1-6-7
Six furlongs seemed to be a touch too short for #5 Isabella’s Glory (9-2), who rallied in three tries at that trip but too late. And a mile seemed to be a touch too far; she rallied to lead leaving the furlong grounds but had to settle for a near-miss third. So perhaps seven-eighths will hit her right between the eyes… Morning line favorite #1 Justhappy (2-1) drops from the special weight ranks into claiming company after two good tries. Collin’s Grey Lady, winner of this one’s last, returned to be fourth in a Parx stake, and trainer Ness wins 25% of the time on this move… Curious to see #6 Rationalmillenial (12-1), who is a half to the multiple graded stakes-placed turf runner Nakamura…

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: CLAIMING $5,000, fillies and mares 4yo and up, 1 1/8 miles

3-5-1-6
Getting back to two turns should suit #3 Simmard Shenanigan (7-2); the six-year-old mare has run well in each of her last four two-turn tries, with recent one-turn efforts not so much… Morning line favorite #5 Sierra Leona (2-1) enters in pretty good form… #1 Postino’s Champion (4-1) has run a couple of clunkers but has some prior efforts that would contend…

RACE 5: STARTER/OPTIONAL CLAIMING, 4yo and up, 6 furlongs

2-5-9-3
#2 Stroll Smokin (7-2) may not be the horse he once was, but he continues to churn out pretty good efforts when properly spotted, and this race fits the bill… Trainer Ferris Allen lost #5 Nashvegas (5-1) for $8,000 two back and turned around and claimed him back for $12,500 last out; today he protects him in this starter condition, and all of that constitutes a major vote of confidence in a horse… #9 Satchel de Ritches (3-1) has run a couple of competitive races versus similar…

RACE 6: STARTER/OPTIONAL CLAIMING, fillies and mares 4yo and up, 5 1/2 furlongs

8-7-1-5
The horse we’re most excited about betting on today’s card? It’s #8 Proper Attire (6-1). If you toss the two dismal turf tries, this miss has been cranking out good races. In her last five dirt races, she’s won three and had good excuses in the other two: back in June, in the Stormy Blues, she was beaten a length by two really good fillies in Street Lute and Malibu Beauty. And last time, in her first start in four months, she got cooked in a speed duel by the ultra-fast Princess Kokachin, who turned around to win a stake. Breaking from the outside, and with that kind of early zip, she should win here… One horse who could pick up the pieces, if there are pieces to pick up, is #7 Party At Page’s (4-1)… Another speedy sort dropping from better company is #1 Gifted Heart (7-2), who’ll have to commit almost immediately when breaking from the one-hole…

ANALYSIS

RACE 7: ALLOWANCE (N1X, state-restricted), fillies and mares 4yo and up, 6 1/2 furlongs

4-7-1-6
We’ll eat the chalk with #4 Marvella Nasty (7-5), who catches a pretty manageable group in here… The formful #7 Long Distance Love (4-1) saw her three-race win streak snapped last out but ran a good race to be second behind the promising Miss Chesapeake, who’s 2-for-3… #1 Canoodle (8-1) graduated nicely last out…

RACE 8: ALLOWANCE (N1X)/OPTIONAL CLAIMING, 3yo, 1 1/16 miles

4-2-1-6
He hasn’t tried the dirt yet, but there’s no reason to think #4 Wish Me Home (5-1) won’t take to it; there’s plenty of dirt in his background, Midshipman’s offspring are often versatile, and this one’s only sibling won three times on the main track. If he does take to it, he’s a major player here, having acquitted himself respectably in three prior stakes tries… #2 One Ten (6-1) got the worst of the trip in the Maryland Juvenile Championship Dec. 18 but did come running late, passing several while never a threat to the top runners… #1 Conclusive (4-1) has run well enough to date and gets blinkers on…

RACE 9: CLAIMING $16,000 (N3L), fillies and mares 4yo and up, 1 1/16 miles

3-4-7-1
#3 Unshakable U (2-1) lands here after having been entered in an easier spot Saturday; this looks to be an appropriate spot off a nice win in a CT allowance, and while trainer Farrior will likely lose her here, he’ll probably get the big share of the purse… #4 Miss Moreno (12-1) makes her third start off a break for trainer Gonzalez, who’s showing confidence in his filly moving her up the ladder… Look for #7 Hashtag Lucky (5-2) to be one-two in the early going, and if she can do that easily enough — no guarantee — she’ll be in the mix until the end…

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Jesse Schule

Jan 02 '22, 11:30 AM in 41m
Soccer | Liverpool vs Chelsea
Play on: Chelsea PK +100 at Mirage

This is a free play on Chelsea.
Liverpool will be a slight favorite in this match versus Chelsea at Stanford Bridge. Chelsea is undefeated in it's last five matches, while Liverpool is coming off a 1-0 loss to Leicester. Jurgen Klopp and several members of the coaching staff will not be available due to Covid19. Chelsea has allowed a Premier League low 14 goals this season. The last meetings between these clubs resulted in a 1-1 draw, and I like Chelsea's chances of earning at least a draw at home Sunday.
GL,
Jesse Schule

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Steve Janus

Jan 02 '22, 11:30 AM in 41m
Soccer | Liverpool vs Chelsea
Play on: Chelsea +185 at Mirage

1* Free Sharp Play on Chelsea +185

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Totals Guru

Jan 02 '22, 1:00 PM in 2h
NFL | Bucs vs Jets
Play on: OVER 45½ -110

Free Total Annihilator On Bucs vs Jets over 45½ -110

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Mike Williams

Jan 02 '22, 1:00 PM in 2h
NFL | Rams vs Ravens
Play on: Rams -6 -110 at SC Consensus

1* on Rams -6 -110

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Kenny Walker

Jan 02 '22, 1:00 PM in 2h
NFL | Jaguars vs Patriots
Play on: Jaguars +16½ -105 at linepros

Free Pick on Jaguars

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Larry Ness

Jan 02 '22, 1:00 PM in 2h
NFL | Dolphins vs Titans
Play on: Titans -3½ +100 at SC Consensus

My free play is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET.
Miami opened last season 1-3 but won NINE of its final 12 games (5-1 at home, losing only to KC), to just miss the playoffs at 10-6. Optimism was high entering 2021 but after a 17-16 win at New England in Week 1, the Dolphins lost SEVEN straight games. However, Miami has rebounded with a 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS run to become the first team in NFL history to win seven straight games and also lose seven consecutive games in the same season. The now 8-7 Dolphins can make the playoffs but they'll have to beat both the 10-4 Titans and 9-6 Patriots to close out the regular season.

Miami is in Nashville on Sunday to take on the Titans, who rallied from a 10-point halftime deficit in Week 16 to beat the 49ers 20-17 on Bullock's 44-yard FG with four seconds left. "We're not dead yet," Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel said of the Titans, who had lost three of their previous four games. Now, a win over the Dolphins would give the Titans their second straight AFC South championship.

Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa (70.1% for 2,339 yards with 15 TDs and 9 INTs) has made a living this year out of short and safe passes to rookie WR Waddle and TE Gesicki. Waddle has set the Dolphins rookie record for receiving yards with 941 on 96 catches and Gesicki. has 67 catches for 707 yards with two TDs. The Miami running game is a problem, as the Dolphins average only 86.6 YPG on the ground to rank 30th of 32 teams. The Miami D has allowed just 11.8 PPG in its seven-game winning streak and checks in allowing 21.0 PPG on the season to rank 10th.

The Titans haven't been the same since RB Derrick Henry was lost with a foot injury in Week 8. QB Ryan Tannehill has had to shoulder more of the load, and he has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in four of seven games since Henry (937 yards / 10 TDs) was hurt. Henry has not played since a 34-31 OT win at Indy. Tannehill has fallen off dramatically from the previous two seasons. He won the job during 2019 and wound up with 22 TDs and just 6 INTs (QB rating of 117.5). He then had a 33-7 ratio in 2020 with a 106.5 rating. His 2021 numbers? 15 TDs and 14 INTs and a QB rating of 84,8. Tannehill had not thrown for more than 191 yards in the three games WR Brown had been on injured reserve but the third-year receiver was activated off IR before last week's game and caught 11 passes for 145 yards with a TD. Tannehill threw for 209 with a TD and no INTs.

The backstory in this game is that Tannehill spent six seasons as Miami's starting quarterback, struggling with mediocre talent surrounding him (Tannehill had a 42-46 record as Miami's starting QB). However, with Tennessee, Tannehill has produced an impressive 28-13 record. The Dolphins are 'on fire' but winning here will be tough. Note that Miami has been very fortunate during its winning streak, the second-longest active run in the NFL, as the Dolphins have beaten just ONE team that does not have a losing record. That team is Baltimore, which is barely above .500 at 8-7, having lost FOUR in a row.

I expect Tannehill to come up with a HUGE effort vs his former team and I'm laying the points.
Good luck...Larry

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Jack Jones

Jan 02 '22, 1:00 PM in 2h
NFL | Rams vs Ravens
Play on: Ravens +6½ -106 at pinnacle

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Baltimore Ravens +6.5
I think this line has gotten out of hand. It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Baltimore Ravens off four straight losses. They are playing for their playoff lives right now and will give a big effort at home here against the Los Angeles Rams Sunday.
The injury report isn't great for the Ravens, but it is better than it was last week as they are getting a ton of players back from COVID. That includes QB Tyler Huntley, who has proven to be an underrated backup in case Lamar Jackson cannot go. He nearly beat the Packers two weeks ago in a 30-31 home loss at 8.5-point underdogs.
Huntley is completing 68.8% of his passes for 743 yards with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 168 yards and two scores on 5.8 per carry in his limited action. He beat the Bears on the road, and he nearly led the comeback in a 2-point loss to the Browns as 3-point dogs after Jackson got hurt.
Both Jackson and Huntley are massive upgrades over Josh Johnson, who was a late fill-in for them last week in the blowout loss to the Bengals. That loss also has them undervalued because their defense got shredded. Baltimore will have almost its entire front seven healthy on defense, and the secondary gets a couple key pieces back this week as well.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Los Angeles Rams. They have won four straight games and don't need this game as badly as the Ravens as they will be going to the playoffs. It will be the 3rd road game in 4 weeks for the Rams in this tough spot. They have a long flight to Baltimore for this early start time on the East Coast.
Baltimore is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after getting outgained by 200 or more yards in its previous game. The Ravens are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games in the last four weeks of the regular season. The Ravens are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as underdogs, including 4-0 ATS in their last four games as home dogs. Bet the Ravens Sunday.

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Sal Michaels

Jan 02 '22, 1:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | North Carolina vs Boston College
Play on: North Carolina -7½ -110 at Mirage

Free Play on North Carolina -7½ -110

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Dave Price

Jan 02 '22, 1:00 PM in 2h
NFL | Dolphins vs Titans
Play on: Dolphins +3 -106 at pinnacle

Dave's Sunday Free Play:
1* on Miami Dolphins +3
The Key: The Miami Dolphins have won 7 straight since a 1-7 start to put themselves in position to make the playoffs. They won't let up now as they take on a reeling Tennessee Titans team that has a very bad injury report right now. The Dolphins are one of the healthiest teams in the league which has been a key to their resurgence. So has a defense that has been the best in the NFL over the past couple months. The Dolphins are yielding just 11.7 PPG in their last 7 games. The Titans have been held to 23 or fewer points in 6 straight games and an average of just 17 PPG in their last 6 contests. The Titans have already clinched the AFC South and don't have as much at stake as the Dolphins do this week. Take Miami.

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Stephen Nover

Jan 02 '22, 1:00 PM in 2h
NFL | Dolphins vs Titans
Play on: Titans -3 +102 at pinnacle

The Dolphins have climbed into the playoff picture by reeling off seven wins in a row after starting the season 1-7. Impressive? Yes - on the surface.
Certainly the Dolphins deserve credit for turning around their season. But their victories were against extremely weak competition. The Dolphins' only win during this span against an above .500 club was defeating 8-7 Baltimore. The Dolphins got the Ravens in a flat spot hosting them on a Thursday night. The rest of Miami's victories were against the Jets twice, Texans, Panthers, Giants and Saints, who had to start fourth-string QB Ian Book.
The Titans are good enough to win the AFC South even without Derrick Henry. Their defense has shown great improvement giving up an average of 12 points during their last three games. Tennessee's offense should look better with left tackle Taylor Lewan and guard Rodger Saffold expected to play after missing the last two games. A.J. Brown gives Ryan Tannehill a stud wide receiver.
The Dolphins aren't going to be able to cripple shoot here. They are finally playing a quality opponent on the road. Miami's last two tough road contests were against the Bills and Buccaneers. They lost those two games by an average of 21.5 points.
It's also a rough spot for Miami, which is on a short week after beating the Saints on Monday night. The Titans, meanwhile, are playing on nine day's rest.

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Jimmy Boyd

Jan 02 '22, 1:00 PM in 2h
NFL | Bucs vs Jets
Play on: UNDER 46½ -110

1* Free Pick on Bucs/Jets under 46½ -110

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Timothy Black

Jan 02 '22, 1:00 PM in 2h
NFL | Jaguars vs Patriots
Play on: Jaguars +16½ -110 at SC Consensus

1* Best Bet on Jaguars +16½ -110