Sunday 1/16/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-16-2022, 09:26 AM

Aqueduct (2nd) Cinderella’s Cause, 7-2
(3rd) Quality Stones, 6-1

Fair Grounds (2nd) Foolish Steve, 3-1
(4th) Hooray Austin, 3-1

Golden Gate Fields (2nd) Misty Cat, 3-1
(4th) Deuce Emma, 3-1

Gulfstream Park (1st) Paintbrush, 7-2
(2nd) Ghost Fighter, 4-1

Laurel Park (1st) Uncommon Valor, 3-1
(5th) Rock and Fellers, 7-2

Oaklawn Park (1st) Aquitania Arrival, 3-1
(3rd) Big Thorn, 3-1

Santa Anita (2nd) Big Mama Sue, 3-1
(3rd) Laura Mars, 4-1

Tampa Bay Downs (4th) Knight Ofthe Crown, 7-2
(5th) Miss Lady L, 8-1

Turfway Park (1st) Cornbread Hill, 4-1
(2nd) Tropical Tornado, 7-2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-16-2022, 09:27 AM

Santa Anita Park 5 Facts | January 10-17, 2021

By Jeremy Plonk

Schedule:

Friday-Sunday

Carryovers:

$391,924 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot (Friday)

Feature Race(s):

$200,000 Cal Cup Derby // 3-year-old CA-breds on dirt // Saturday

$200,000 Cal Cup Turf Classic // CA-bred turf routers // Saturday

$200,000 Cal Cup Oaks // 3-year-old filly CA-bred turfers // Saturday

$150,000 Cal Cup Sprint // CA-bred dirt sprinters // Saturday

$150,000 Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf // CA-bred distaff turf sprinters // Saturday

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Jockey 6 Mo. Win % (52%, +$20.80 )

Last 3 Race Class (44%, +$17.80)

Last E2 Pace (39%, +$16.20)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

T: Doug O’Neill // last week 16: 3-5-1 (19%, $1.38 ROI) // $6, $8, $29 wins + 9-1 and 18-1 runner-ups

T: Ruben Alvarado // last week 5: 3-0-0 (60%, $2.78 ROI) // $5, $6, $16 scores all on turf

T: Bob Baffert // last week 3: 2-0-0 (67%, $1.20 ROI) // both winners odds-on // 11-24 last 3 weeks

J: Flavien Prat // last week 17: 10-2-0 (59%, $1.54 ROI) // 3-4 with Phil D’Amato // 18-37 last 2 weeks

J: John Velazquez // last week 19: 5-1-5 (26%, $0.88 ROI) // 4-8 with favorites // 17-46 last 3 weeks

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-16-2022, 09:27 AM

Golden Gate Fields 5 Facts | January 10-17, 2022

By Jeremy Plonk

1/ST Look: Golden Gate Fields 5 Facts | January 10-17, 2022

Schedule:

Friday-Sunday

Carryovers:

$5,973 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot (Friday)

Feature Race(s):

No stakes scheduled.

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Best Speed Distance (26%, -$15.80)

Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed (31%, -$15.00)

Last Race Class (29%, -$3.40)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

T: Jonathan Wong // last week 13: 4-1-1 (31%, $0.73 ROI) // 4-6 with favorites // all 4 wins $4-$6

T: Reid France // last week 6: 2-1-1 (33%, $1,25 ROI) // $6, $8 scores in Tapeta sprints

T: Tim Bellasis // last week 4: 2-2-0 (%, $ ROI) // wins at 3-2 & 9-5 both with Irving Orozco

J: Irving Orozco // last week 19: 6-1-0 (32%, $2.03 ROI) // $41 topper // 11 wins last 2 weeks

J: Evin Roman // last week 11: 5-0-1 (45%, $2.75 ROI) // 4-4 with favorites + $40 winner

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-16-2022, 09:27 AM

Gulfstream 5 Facts | January 10-17, 2022

By Jeremy Plonk

Schedule:

Wednesday-Sunday

Carryovers:

$37,258 ($150,000 guaranteed pool) Rainbow 6 Jackpot (Wednesday)

$4,983 Super High 5 (Wednesday)

Feature Race(s):

$150,000 Sunshine Millions Classic // FL-bred dirt routers // Saturday

$150,000 Sunshine Millions Sprint // FL-bred dirt sprinters // Saturday

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Trainer 2 Years This Race Type (24%, +$16.80)

Trainer 1 Year Win % (23%, -$37.00)

Avg. Speed (22%, -$39.00)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

T: Mark Casse // last week 12: 5-0-0 (42%, $3.81 ROI) // wins at $4, $10, $10, $28, $37

T: Saffie Joseph Jr. // last week 16: 5-3-2 (31%, $2.04 ROI) // pair of $23 wins with Junior Alvarado

T: Peter Walder // last week 6: 3-0-0 (50%, $1.75 ROI) // all 3 wins in claiming ranks

T: Steve Dwoskin // last week 3: 2-0-0 (67%, $3.27 ROI) // $5, $14 sprint winners

J: Edwin Gonzalez // last week 16: 5-2-0 (31%, $2.89 ROI) // 3-7 with Mark Casse ($10, $28, $37)

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-16-2022, 09:28 AM

Sunday Seoul & Busan: Race-By-Race Preview (January 16)

Sunday sees meetings at both Seoul and Busan. Seoul has an 11-race card from 10:45 to 18:00 while at Busan the action runs from 12:00 to 16:40. The feature race is Busan’s finale involving 2000M track-record holder Fantastic Man, facing off with the likes of Blue Chipper, Great King and Smart Prince in a fourteen-runner field. All betting locations are open but attendance must be pre-booked through the MyCard app. Evidence of up to date vaccination against Covid-19 is required. Here are the previews

He’s moved trainers again – Blue Chipper goes at Busan on Sunday (Pic: KRA)

Seoul Race 1: Class 6 (1000M) Allowance / KRW 40 Million

Three-year-old maiden fillies to kick things off and five of the twelve are racing for the first time. (8) HAPPY MIX has earned favourite status following good 4th place on debut in a fast time on December 19th when she sat midfield from a wide gate and ran on well. The draw is a little better this time and she has every chance. (5) JEONGSANG FIGHTING’s one race so far was back in July of last year when she put in a fair effort over this distance. She looked very well when trialing up on Christmas Eve to requalify and much more can be expected this time around. (3) SAENGIL SEONMUL should improve on the 8th place she scored on debut in November and can be expected to be on pace from a good gate. Of the first-time starters, (7) SPEAR GOLD and (6) CITY CHARM both trialed up well enough and can go well first-up.
Selections (8) Happy Mix (5) Jeongsang Fighting (3) Saengil Seonmul (7) Spear Gold
Next Best 6, 11
Fast Start 3, 5, 8, 10

Seoul Race 2: Class 6 (1200M) Allowance / KRW 40 Million

Three-year-old maidens. (7) EUNHYE looks very much the one to beat having led almost the entire way around at this distance on November 20th, only to be caught by a good winner and finish in 2nd place. He’ll be on speed or handy here and this time can go all the way. (2) HANGANG BOSS was a solid 4th on his first try at this distance on December 11th, only narrowly missing out on 3rd. He can have come on for that run and be considered for better here. (8) EAGLE POINT came from well off the pace to run 2nd on debut over 1000M on November 27th. The step up in trip should suit and he’ll be coming home fast again. (4) GOOD NISEN was further back in the same race on his own debut having previously gone well in a trial and there can be improvement today. (6) THE FAVORITE was beaten by Eunhye at her latest start but has been consistent across three outings so far and should be competing for a place.
Selections (7) Eunhye (2) Hangang Boss (8) Eagle Point (4) Good Nisen
Next Best 6, 1
Fast Start 1, 6, 7, 11

Seoul Race 3: Class 6 (1200M) Allowance / KRW 25 Million

While it’s fair to say that (5) GOLD KAISER has mixed her form across three starts so far, her bad run came when drawn very wide and her two good ones when drawn similarly to today, including at her latest when a front-running 3rd over this distance. Just like today, that was in restricted filly and mare company, and this could be her day. (11) DONGHAENG raced twice last Spring, finishing 2nd on both occasions. She returns here after thirty-four weeks out having run well in a competitive trial in December in which she led for much of the way around alongside good horses. She has every chance of going well first-up. (1) WELLBEING CHAMPION ran on pleasingly for 5th on debut over 1000M in December. She comes up in trip and 4kg in the weights here without an apprentice aboard but from the inside, she may just sneak into the places. (13) FIRST ROAD and (7) RAON THE PEARL are others in the placing frame.
Selections (5) Gold Kaiser (11) Donghaeng (1) Wellbeing Champion (13) First Road
Next Best 7, 10
Fast Start 1, 5, 7, 11

Busan Race 1: Class 6 (1000M) Allowance / KRW 40 Million

Three-year-old maiden fillies greet the starter in the opener at Busan with four of the twelve racing for the first time. (11) BEAUTY BROWN is set to start a hot favourite having beaten a couple of these on her way to 2nd place on debut in a similar event on December 17th, when she led for much of the way around. She drew even wider that day so the barrier shouldn’t be a problem and she should go one better. The logical main challengers are a couple of the first-time starters. (4) HOLLYWOOD PARTY is the pick of these having run 2nd in a trial in a decent time although (7) KF ONE stopped the clock competitively too in her heat and with a 4kg weight allowance can make an impact. Returning to those with prior experience, (3) WONDERFUL CUTIE and (9) HAPPY SONG SONG perhaps have the greatest chance of improving.
Selections (11) Beauty Brown (4) Hollywood Party (7) KF One (3) Wonderful Cutie
Next Best 9, 8
Fast Start 1, 4, 8, 11

Seoul Race 4: Class 6 (1300M) Allowance / KRW 40 Million

Three and four-year-old maidens. (8) TIZ BAROWS will be a warm favourite having debuted well over 1300M on December 11th when going right back and then finishing off very well. The additional half-furlong should suit, and he is the one to beat. (9) NEW A ONE improved at start number two when runner-up at 1200M with a couple of today’s rivals behind him. He too went right back that day before running on and should appreciate a bit more distance here. (4) P N S CHANCE has been consistent across her three outings to date and is yet another who may like a bit of extra distance as she has been doing her best work late on each occasion. If you prefer a front-runner, then (3) BE CRAZY may be the one to go for. He has been on pace in both starts so far, finishing 4th both times, most recently behind New A One and from a nice draw will be up in front early again. (1) GEOLJAK WOMAN another in the hunt.
Selections (8) Tiz Barows (9) New A One (4) P N S Chance (3) Be Crazy
Next Best 1, 10
Fast Start 3, 4, 5, 13

Busan Race 2: Class 6 (1200M) Allowance / KRW 25 Million

It’s hard to oppose (1) MONEY CASE here. He’s run 4th and 2nd in two starts so far, both at 1000M and the latter in a fast time when handy throughout and running on. He looks to be working towards a maiden win and it can come here from the inside gate and under the track’s most in-form jockey. (5) GEUMA STARLET drops back in trip after an inauspicious spin around 1400M when favourite on Christmas Eve. Draw a line though that and instead go on his previous effort when 2nd at this distance on December 5th, beating a few of these in the process. You Hyun-myung climbs aboard today and he should be back in the finish. Also coming back in trip is (10) CHIEF OFFICER. He has the fastest time among these for the distance and gets a 4kg claim today. He may need some early luck from a relatively wide draw though. (6) YEONGGWANGUI RIDER ran 5th behind Geuma Starlet in early December having briefly led. He has trialed since then and should strip fitter. (4) SORI TAEPUNG resumes after eight months out and while he will need this, could sneak some minor money.
Selections (1) Money Case (5) Geuma Starlet (10) Chief Officer (6) Yeonggwangui Rider
Next Best 4, 3
Fast Start 1, 4, 6, 7

Seoul Race 5: Class 5 (1300M) Handicap / KRW 60 Million

(5) GOLD K comes in off a good 2nd place at this class over the 1400M on December 5th when only narrowly beaten. He has mixed his form but has run good times at this distance too and from a nice draw can get on pace in this big field and can win. (7) SMART JEONSA is still a maiden but comes up in class here following three runner-up finishes from six attempts, including his lates two, both at 1200M. There could be more improvement in the tank, and he can measure up in this company. (13) M J BEST doesn’t get the best of the draw but has consistently run good times at this distance. His racing style means that he doesn’t need to lead so if he can find a comfortable spot, he should be coming home strong late on. So too (10) TEN BAGGER, who won at this distance at class 6 level two spots back and while he weakened at 1400M on his first try at this class, he can go better today. (11) ROCK FIGHTER another with placing hopes.
Selections (5) Gold K (7) Smart Jeonsa (13) M J Best (10) Ten Bagger
Next Best 11, 8
Fast Start 3, 4, 5, 11

Busan Race 3: Class 4 (1400M) Handicap / KRW 60 Million

Really good-looking race but a standout top pick. (2) BEOLMAUI STAR comes in with a 100% record to defend. He is two for two with his wins being all the way scores at 1000M and 1200M both in fast times. He is up in class and in trip here but looks to have scope for more development and can make it three from three here. He runs into others in good form though. (3) DONGTEUJA BOY ran 3rd in hos first two outings but has since won two in a row to also come up rapidly in class. His latest win was at this distance, leading gate to wire in a good time back in October and he too has potential for more progress. The pair will be dueling for the lead from the gate. (8) CHEONNYEONUIYAKSO is one who may take advantage if they over-race. He came from just off the pace for a good 3rd at class and distance on December 17th and is in the placing hunt again. (11) CHEONHA NUMBER ONE is another rapidly up in class after back-to-back wins. He will need to improve a bit more than the other hat-trick seekers but can be competitive. (1) MARK ONE another in the frame.
Selections (2) Beolmaui Star (3) Dongteuja Boy (8) Cheonnyeonuiyakso (11) Cheonha Number One
Next Best 1, 4
Fast Start 2, 3, 5, 10

Seoul Race 6: Class 5 (1200M) Handicap / KRW 40 Million

Big field of fillies and mares here but we’ll side with (12) NEMO PRINCESS, who steps back marginally in trip following a runner-up finish at start number two over 1300M on December 11th, leading almost all the way only to be denied late on. She previously won easily on debut over 1000M. The concern here is the draw but if she can get a bit of luck at the start, she may take some beating. (1) WOL YEONG I gets the best of the draw. She is yet to win in thirteen attempts but has four runner-up finishes to her name including at her latest at class and distance on December 12th. She will be in this a long way. (7) PURPLE K is another who has a super quick time over the 1000M to her name. She too led on her latest start but weakened to 3rd, beaten by Wol Yeong I. She’s worth another chance here. (10) SOEWAKKOT and (2) COOL PRINCESS are others in at least the placing hunt.
Selections (12) Nemo Princess (1) Wol Yeong I (7) Purple K (10) Soewakkot (2) Cool Princess
Next Best 9, 4
Fast Start 1, 7, 12, 13

Busan Race 4: Class 4 (1200M) Handicap / KRW 60 Million

(1) KING ALLIE returned from almost six months out to practically make all for an easy win over 1200M at class 5 level on December 10th. He is accordingly up in class but marginally down in the weights and from the inside gate should lead again and will be strong favourite to win again. It’s been more than a year since we saw (8) CLEAR win on debut in December 2020. He returned to the track in a trial on Christmas Day 2021 and put in a front-running performance. Seo Seung-un is engages and a bold showing first-up would be no surprise. (5) AMOR FATI was an all the way class and distance winner two starts back with three of today’s rivals behind him. He could only manage 5th on his return in a good race on December 10th but from a slightly better draw can be given another chance here. (9) CAPTAIN STEALTH and (7) ENDLESS RUNNING are others in at least the placing frame.
Selections (1) King Allie (8) Clear (5) Amor Fati (9) Captain Stealth
Next Best 7, 2
Fast Start 1, 5, 8, 10

Seoul Race 7: Class 4 (1200M) Handicap / KRW 60 Million

A very competitive race. (13) DAESAN TEUKGEUP will need to overcome a wide draw if he s to return to the winner’s circle. He won three in a row to be rapidly promoted to this class and finishes a fair 5th on his first crack at it over 1400M on November 28th. The drop back in trip today can suit and with a bit of luck he has claims. Probable favourite is (5) SECRET BOSS. HE comes in with very consistent recent form that includes a class and distance win two starts back. He is tactically versatile and while he may not be the quickest in the race, he is sure to be in the finish again. (1) MONEY CHAMP gets a great draw and a light weight and having beaten three of these on his way to 2nd place at class and distance in a fast time on December 11th, must warrant more respect here. (12) VICEROY is another who, like Daesan Teukgeup, will need to overcome a wide draw. He races for the first time since running 2nd to Secret Boss at class and distance on November 14th and has placing claims again. (3) GLOBAL SUN one of many others with minor money hopes.
Selections (13) Daesan Teukgeup (5) Secret Boss (1) Money Champ (12) Viceroy
Next Best 3, 7
Fast Start 1, 2, 7, 14

Busan Race 5: Class 5 (1800M) Allowance / KRW 40 Million

We’ll give another chance to (5) LANE KILLER here. True he has been beaten favourite twice in a row now, but he has had excuses both times, primarily wide draws in big fields. He has a good draw in a relatively small field today and with proven ability at the distance, he can return to winning ways. The big danger is perhaps (7) AFLEET TAPIT. He steps up in trip to two turns for the first time but is a winner at this class over 1400M and come sin having run 4th over a mile at his latest start on December 19th. He likes to settle handy or further back and then run on and looks firmly in this. (1) ONNURI GANGJA and (6) STORM BROWN were among those who beat Lane Killer at the trio’s latest start on Boxing Day and both can be in the placing hunt again. (4) ADELE SMART is another to take into consideration.
Selections (5) Lane Killer (7) Afleet Tapit (1) Onnuri Gangja (6) Storm Brown
Next Best 4, 3
Fast Start 5, 6, 8, 9

Seoul Race 8: Class 5 (1700M) Allowance / KRW 40 Million

It’s hard to go too far past (10) GYEONGBU DORYEONG here. He may only have won once from twenty attempts, but he looks to be working towards another and has beaten a number of these in his latest two outings when 3rd and 2nd, both at class and distance. He draws a little worse today and carries a little more weight too, but he could well have too much. (12) THAT’S MY BOY draws even worse but nevertheless shapes as the main danger. He is up in class following a maiden win at start number eight, but it came at this distance in a solid time and with Munro climbing aboard, he can measure up in this company. (7) HAWKUI YEONGGWANG has the fastest time among these at the distance and while he has never finished better than 3rd, he knows how to hit the minor money in this type of race and may sneak a place. Up in class (2) JEONGMUN PRINCE and (3) GREAT EYE are others in the hunt.
Selections (10) Gyeongbu Doryeong (12) That’s My Boy (7) Hawkui Yeonggwang (2) Jeongmun Prince
Next Best 3, 1
Fast Start 3, 5, 10, 11

Busan Race 6: Class 1 (2000M) Allowance / KRW 110 Million

(5) FANTASTIC MAN comes in having run 5th in the President’s Cup at Seoul from gate fifteen on November 28th. At the start before he set a Busan track record for this distance when beating several of these with an all the way romp on November 12th. True, the track was extremely fast all that month, but the manner was super impressive and at 54kg and from a good draw, he has to go on top. (13) BLUE CHIPPER gets another new beginning with another new trainer. He was an excellent 4th n the Owners’ Cup at his last start two months ago and while he gives weight away again, don’t rule out a heroic return. Likewise, the warhorse (1) GREAT KING, now eight-years-old. He draws well today, and an apprentice takes some of the weight off. (11) SMART PRINCE was a good winner last time out at class and distance and while up in the weights today, must be respected. (12) THE SABER among others who can place.
Selections (5) Fantastic Man (13) Blue Chipper (1) Great King (11) Smart Prince
Next Best 12, 14
Fast Start 2, 5, 7, 13

Seoul Race 9: Class 3 (1800M) Allowance / KRW 75 Million

A wide-open race here. We’ll take a chance at good odds on (11) JEONGMUN SUMMIT. Disregard his latest start in the President’s Cup and instead go on his 2nd place at class and distance two starts back. The draw isn’t ideal, but this should suit. (6) SPOT FLATTER has been consistent of late and last start was midfield before running on wide to finish 3rd at class and distance behind a couple of today’s rivals on December 11th. He meets that day’s winner, Determination, 3kg better and can be considered. (8) JANGSAN BADA was a good 2nd place in that race having been bumped at the start. He too meets Determination at much better weights and should be in the finish again. (5) STEADY CHAMPION’s latest two appearances came in the Derby and Minister’s Cup. His record before that was four wins from seven and back in more amenable company, he can be given a chance. (12) DETERMINATION won the December 11th race and warrants respect. He is up 3kg and has the outside barrier but on his best form is in this.
Selections (11) Jeongmun Summit (6) Spot Flatter (8) Jangsan Bada (5) Steady Champion
Next Best 12, 1
Fast Start 5, 6, 8, 10

Seoul Race 10: Class 4 (1400M) Handicap / KRW 60 Million

(5) DUSON MYEONGGUN has shown improvement of late and at this last start on December 19th, beat a couple of these on his way to 2nd place at class and distance when n pace throughout. He can go one better here. He will be vying for favourite status with (4) LUCKY YOUNG. He’s improved at all three starts so far and there was plenty to like about his latest run when 4th behind Duson Myeonggun. He was slow away that day resulting him being well back in the field, but he worked home very well to be withing three-lengths of the winner and he has claims to go better here. (12) MASEONG TUHON comes into the calculations on the back of a good last start 2nd at this class and distance. She does tend to get a bit far back in her races and then run on so will just need a bit of luck in the run and she can place. (8) BOMNALUI GIEOK hasn’t been too far away in recent starts. This is a slightly weaker field, and a place is a possibility. (9) GREEN JILJU another in the minor money frame.
Selections (5) Duson Myeonggun (4) Lucky Young (12) Maseong Tuhon (8) Bomnalui Gieok
Next Best 9, 6
Fast Start 1, 3, 5, 13

Seoul Race 11: Class 2 (1200M) Handicap / KRW 90 Million

(1) JANGSAN CLEAR is a winner of three of his last four, all at this distance. He is up in class but significantly down in weight and from the inside gate can pick his spot and has every chance of winning again. (11) BLACK MUSK is a talented galloper who has a great record at 1400M with four ins including last start at this class. He’s up in weight and back to the 1200M but can’t be left out of the calculations. (2) PREEMAX has solid recent form and showed that class 2 is within his scope when a good 2nd to Black Musk at this class over 1400M on December 11th. He is comfortable settling on pace or in midfield and the barrier is in his favour here. (12) CLEAN UP HAPPY is ultra-consistent having been unplaced just once in twelve career starts. Last time out, he led and finished a close 2nd at class and distance. He likes to race forward so isn’t helped by the draw, but an apprentice claim brings him back into it. (8) WINNER BROWN, firmly established at this class, is another not to be ruled out.
Selections (1) Jangsan Clear (11) Black Musk (2) Preemax (12) Clean Up Happy
Next Best 8, 14
Fast Start 1, 4, 11, 12

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-16-2022, 09:28 AM

Aqueduct Picks: Big A back Sunday January 16
By J.N. Campbell

Aqueduct Picks - Sunday, January 16, 2022

Race 1: 4-6-7-3
Race 2: 1-4-3-5
Race 3: 5-4-7-3
Race 4: 6-2-1-5
Race 5: 4-6-3-8
Race 6: 6-3-5-4
Race 7: 3-1-2-8
Race 8: 6-4-5-1
Race 9: 3-1-9-5
**Most Likely Winner: Big Engine #6 (Race 6)**
**Best Value: Candy Monet #1 (Race 2)**

Most Likely Winner: (Race 6: Big Engine #6, 4/1):

I am pretty confident that Rudy Rodriguez has the winner in this OC62.5k sprint. His new charge, from the barn of Linda Rice, looks to be pretty classy, and should finish off this group. Wudda U Think Now #3 is going to be over bet for Rodriguez, and I think his new rival is the better play. Sometimes with uncoupled entries you have this happen. I am not sure if this is good for racing or not at this level, but thinking with my wagering hat firmly affixed, I believe the better-priced runner will be the play, based on the class drop out of the True North (G2). Bet ‘em …

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #6

Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 2: Candy Monet #1, 6/1):

This New York bred is from the celebrated Funky Munky Stable, and Jorge Vargas gets the call for David Donk. The reason I want to give this filly a shot is that she is dropping out of stiffer company, and should reap the benefits. Don’t forget that back in October she won a MSW Co. contest at Belmont, which gives me hope that she can take on this competition. She should be an underlay with what looks like a bunch of favorites.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #1 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)

Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 8: Dirt, 1 1/8th, Ladies S., $100k, F&M 4+):

Back at it on Sunday, the “Big A” is open for business after a cancelled card on Saturday. What I like about this race is that out of 6, you have 3 of these older females that are pretty well-matched. At least that is what the M/L is telling us. Trainer Rob Atras sends his 4-yr-old filly to the post, and Battle Bling #4 is going to be making her 1st start for her barn. She ran on nicely last out at Aqueduct in an OC62.5k event, just missing by a neck. If T-Mac can put her into contention after the half, then she might have a shot. The real question … how will the track be playing? My sense is that a frontrunner like Linda Rice’s appropriately named Its Cold in Dehere #6 could have the edge because she will be forwardly placed. The able-bodied Jose Lezcano gets the call, and this former member of Norm Casse’s outfit has the potential to be sharp. I do not negate that Claudio Gonzalez is a strong Mid-Atlantic conditioner with ability. His Miss Leslie #5 is a daughter of Paynter, and she has a 3-win streak coming into NYRA. Those scores were at Laurel and Delaware, but that doesn’t mean that she cannot make it 4. Still, it is going to be tough going against these tough class hikers. Here is how I see it shaking out with this Trifecta wager …

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Trifecta Cold, 6 w 4 w 5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-16-2022, 09:29 AM

Oaklawn Park Picks: Joel Rosario in the house Sunday January 16
By J.N. Campbell

Oaklawn Park Picks - Sunday, January 16, 2022

Race 1: 6-5-1-2
Race 2: 7-3-4-10
Race 3: 5-3-8-6
Race 4: 9-5-8-6
Race 5: 2-11-12-7
Race 6: 7-5-1-8
Race 7: 12-10-4-11
Race 8: 7-3-2-4
Race 9: 9-4-1-5
**Most Likely Winner: Aquitania Arrival #6 (Race 1)**
**Best Value: Eastside Cool #5 (Race 3)**

Most Likely Winner: (Race 1: Aquitania Arrival #6, 3/1):

Even though Joel Rosario is on Steve Asmussen’s Requisition #5, I don’t think he gets the win in this tough Starter Optional Claiming contest. That goes to one of his old adversaries, Florent Geroux and his mount, Aquitania Arrival #6. From the barn of Rene Amescua (formerly Peter Miller’s outfit), this gelding by Carpe Diem was outclassed last time at Oaklawn in an OC80k event. He clearly was not enthusiastic about the distance (6F) or the muddy track. He is going to get a stretch out this time, but a wet course might be in his future. Geroux is a master rider, and I think he will find a solid spot mid-pack … waiting for a proper moment to strike. Odds of 3/1 … that sounds pretty square on this drop.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #6

Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 3: Eastside Cool #5, 9/2):

Trainer Joe Sharp got his hands on this one back in November, and promptly readied him for competition in Hot Springs. Back at Churchill it was a tough couple of races … 1st at the ALLW level and then in a Clm30k. Just because he did not hit-the-board in either of those attempts, does not mean that Sharp had little to work with. In an ALLW Co. shot at Oaklawn in mid-December he responded well down the lane—4th. I think that the switch from Luis Contreras to Francisco Arrieta is a shrewd move. The offspring of Frosted are running well, and I like to bet them when I have the opportunity. This one is fit … and dare I say it … ready to win!

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #5 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)

Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 6: Dirt, St. ALLW.50k, 4+):

If you are looking for a true ‘capping challenge, then look no further than this contest. Everyone entered is protected in this situation, so there should not be any worries about getting claimed. I want to like Joel Rosario’s assignment … A C Expressway #1 could be a winner, but the 4-yr-old gelding has not done much of that over 13 starts (1-2-2). Still, the son of Mineshaft could be formidable, if he can handle being stuck down on the rail. I know one horse that is going to take quite a bit of money—Richard Baltas’ Herd Immunity #5. This gelding by Union Rags is a 1st out starter for the barn, and getting Florent Geroux is a plus. His form was not too shabby out in SoCal, where he competed in some tough Clm50k events. Making the switch to running in Hot Springs will not be easy, so you might use caution with what is be such a short price on the tote. My top selection is Mike Maker’s All the Diamonds #7. Here is a gelding by Orb that has a number of nice attributes. Ricardo Santana gets a 2nd crack at riding him (Maker and Santana got a nice win on Fri), but more importantly is that he will be in a condition that is pretty familiar. Maker is a master 2nd off-the-claim, and I think it is worth a shot giving him another chance after a 5th place ending back on 19 Dec. The 2nd half of that race … showed some form/improvement. Let’s use him on top, and roll the others underneath!

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Trifecta Wheel, 7 w 1/5 w 1/5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-16-2022, 09:29 AM

Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Sunday, January 16
Posted on January 15, 2022 by David Aragona

RACE 2: STENCIL (#2)

Boss Cara and Summary Judgment could vie for favoritism here, and I don’t find either option particularly compelling at short prices. Boss Cara will attempt to stretch out to 7 furlongs as she drops back in for a claiming tag. She got the job done for this same claiming tag against maiden foes two back, but she was beating a very weak field that day. She wasn’t disgraced when meeting a tougher group of winners last time, but she got a pretty good trip riding the rail the entire way. I still prefer her to Summary Judgment, who is dressed up off her last-out victory. That was a terrible field of $20k maiden claimers and she was never seriously challenged after getting loose early. That race earned a strong 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure, but the few horses that we’ve seen run back out of that race have significantly regressed in subsequent starts, calling into doubt the quality of that affair. I want to find a viable alternative and Stencil seems like such a runner. This filly hasn’t run quite as fast as the two aforementioned fillies in her prior starts at Woodbine, but now she’s making her first start on dirt while first off the claim for Rob Atras. Atras wasn’t the one to claim her at Woodbine last time, but he’s done good work with new acquisitions for these owners recently. This is a horse who could have been entered for a $16k tag and no one would have batted an eye, so it seems like a good sign that she’s pegged at $40k. While this filly has never run on the dirt, she has all dirt breeding. Algorithms is a strong dirt influence, and her dam is out of multiple Grade 3 winning dirt router Brushed Halory.

RACE 5: ROCCO STRONG (#4)

Royal Realm is a deserving favorite as he drops back down in class to a claiming race after picking up minor awards at the starter allowance level in his last two starts. He was simply second best to the talented Texas Swing that day and was justifiably favored when he came back at the same level last time. He was never beating No Burn, who ran a surprisingly fast race. However, I thought this horse was a little dull in defeat, after getting good early position. A repeat of either of his last two speed figures still make him formidable here, but I’m most interested in an alternative at a better price. Rocco Strong ran a strong race going this distance back on Oct. 17. The problem is that his surrounding performances don’t quite measure up. That said, he has had some excuses in his last couple of starts. He actually had tactical speed in that Nov. 11 affair, but his rider allowed him to lose position in the opening furlongs, and he couldn’t rally into a slow pace. Then last time he steadied in traffic coming out of the chute and then never looked comfortable striding awkwardly over that sloppy track. I like him stretching back out in distance and it’s encouraging that the blinkers also come off. I’m hoping Dylan Davis can give him an aggressive ride, as he seems to do best when he’s forwardly placed. I’ll primarily use him with the favorite, and with Purple Hearted and Big Castle in exotics.

RACE 8: ITS COLD IN DEHERE (#6)

Miss Leslie is obviously the horse to beat as she attempts to win her fourth in a row. However, she will be seeking to take her strong mid-Atlantic form to Aqueduct, and is arguably facing the toughest field she’s encountered along the way. The 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned last time makes her tough here, and she was a convincing winner of that Carousel Stakes. However, TimeformUS has that day at Laurel coded as dark blue, indicating that it was a track strongly favoring closers. She doesn’t figure to get as much pace to close into this time, and she goes out for a trainer who has had much more success at Laurel than he has at NYRA. Battle Bling is an alternative worth considering as she makes her first start off the claim for Rob Atras and Michael Dubb. She ran well to just miss going a mile last time, but she was also with a track bias, as she was outside all the way on a day when the rail was dead. Overall I’m not sure that she’s quite of this quality, though she could improve for the new connections. My top pick is Its Cold in Dehere. This mare has turned into a different horse since they stretched her out in distance this summer. She’s quickly ascended out of mid-level claiming races and has now earned her shot in stakes company by winning three of her last four starts. She beat some strong rivals in that Sep. 16 win at Churchill and was a visually impressive winner last time. I like that she owns good tactical speed in a race that lacks any confirmed front-runners. Linda Rice has made some expensive claims recently, and this seems like one that could pay dividends right away.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-16-2022, 09:29 AM

Rocket Picks ��: Gulfstream Park, Oaklawn Park, and Santa Anita for January 16, 2021

By: Aaron Halterman

Let’s round out the weekend today! For the free pick 4, we will head to Oaklawn Park once again! We will also be covering Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita for the paid Rockets, so be sure to check those out. The paid Rockets have been on FIRE as of late, so let’s hope we keep that up! Let’s see if we can get this home today.

Below is our free Late Pick 4 for Oaklawn Park:

Oaklawn Park January 16, 2022

Race 6: Starter Allowance

#4 U. S. Steel goes for two in a row today after a nice win over this track last time out. He also runs first off the claim for Diodoro today. #1 A C Expressway was third at this level last time out, which came at this track and at this distance.

Race 7: Maiden Claiming

#12 Amity Road will make his debut today for Brad Cox, who has his horses ready to run so far at this meeting. Geroux also jumps aboard. #4 Camargo will take a drop down in class for this race after struggling against tougher in his first two starts.

Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming

#7 Man in the Can should be tough today, stretching out in distance, and running for the second time off of a long layoff. #2 Souixper Charger won impressively last time out, and can make it two in a row if he can handle the distance.

Race 9: Claiming

#9 Leading West lost by only a neck last time out against tougher, which should make him tough to beat dropping down in class today. #11 Restoring Hope improved last time out for Moquett, and could show more improvement today with Rosario jumping aboard.

THE TICKET

$.50 Pick 4 (Races 6-9) 1,2,4,5,7 / 4,10,12 / 2,4,7 / 9,11 – $45

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-16-2022, 09:30 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Pick 5 Analysis-$60,000 Guaranteed Pool

January 16, 2022 | By Al Cimaglia

The betting feature at Northfield Park is the $1.00 Pick 5 which starts in Race 6. Due to a $17,166 carryover, there will be a $60,000 guaranteed pool, and the sequence will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

2-King Felix (3-1)-Broke in last as a 7/5 chalk versus better and Merriman sticks. Figures to be a major player but can't completely trust. Does go dancing every now and then.
4-Shine All The Way (5/2)-Recent form has been dull but races versus Open company and this is a good spot. Knows how to win and likes Nfld taking 9 pictures in 27 starts.

Race 7

1-Coxcomb (5-1)-Does best work racing near the top of the stack and from this post that can happen. Page takes the lines and has won 3 of 7 at Nfld.
5-Cocosfella A (2-1)-Broke in last in an Open Handicap and fits better here. Not in love with the short price but difficult to leave out.
7-Music Is Art (3-1)-Steps-up after winning as an odds-on favorite off a well rated trip. Merriman steers again and has had success at this level.

Race 8

6-Pure Chance (7/2)-Recent form hasn't been special but banked over a $132,000 facing Open company in 2021. Should be a threat with a far trip from Thompson. Has hit the board in 13 of 17 here, with 6 wins.
7-Boo Thang (7-1)-Trip dependent 6-year-old can compete but needs some lively fractions. Davis could leave with this price shot to get a decent early seat and look to follow cover.

Race 9

3-Routhland (5-1)-Captaintreacherous 4-year-old has won 2 straight and has hit the board in 15 of 16 Nfld starts with 3 wins. Faces older and this will be a test. But could battle with this group and should offer a fair price. Will look to beat the program chalks (5-6).
4-Johnny Rockette (5-1)-Even effort versus this kind in last and now Merriman steers, which is ++ driver change. Draws well, has won at this level here and there aren't any crushers in this field.

Race 10-

3-Angelo J Fra (7/2)-Draws inside and drops to a spot to shine. Kash could have this veteran dialed on high and should be in the hunt at the wire.
7-Catch Me Conrad (6-1)-Page grabs the lines and drops to a soft spot. Six-year-old has won 27% of its lifetime starts and took 17 pictures last year. This smells like a drop and pop opportunity and the price should be right.

$1.00 Pick 5

2,4/1,5,7/6,7/3,4/3,7
Total Bet=$48

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-16-2022, 09:33 AM

Jeff Siegel's Analysis/Workout Commentary for Sunday, 1/16/22

January 16, 2022

“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
Sunday, January 16, 2022
By Jeff Siegel, Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TPC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 individual
algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100 point takeout.

The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.

Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 3-Rio Ocho; 1-Flint Stroll

Forecast: Rio Ocho earned a career top speed figure when finishing an excellent second in a similar maiden turf router at Del Mar in November and nothing much more will be needed to produce a victory in this moderate affair. The J. Mullins-trained gelding makes a significant jockey switch to F. Prat and should be able to settle in the second flight and have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. In a race without pace, and as a first-time gelding adding blinkers, Flint Stoll has a right to step forward with an improved effort. From the rail, he might be able to inherit the lead and if so, he could take this field a long way. The main push should go to Rio Ocho, but Flint Stoll is worth including on a ticket or two as a back-up.

Notable Workouts:
Flint Stroll and Flintmore (January 9, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02h TT). Grade: B-
Both in blinkers in team drill for P. D’Amato with ‘Stroll inside and finishing a head in front at the wire through slow splits of :24.2 and :49.3 for the final half mile. Neither one asked, tough to separate them, both need to step it up a bit in the afternoon.
View Workout Video

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RACE 2: Post: 1:03 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 5-Secret Square; 2-Big Mama Sue

Forecast: This allowance event over a mile on dirt drew a field six; we’ll try to survive and advance doubling the race but not with a great deal of confidence. Secret Square is winless in six starts over the local main track but on her best day she’s good enough to beat a field such as this, so we’ll put her on top and expect her to be on or near the lead throughout. Big Mama Sue likes to settle and make a run, so if the early fractions are faster than par – and with sprinter-stretching-out Delta Wind in the field the chances are good that they will be – then Big Mama Sue will have an opportunity to lag early and cut loose late. She’s won on this main track in the past and has trained steadily since a clever score at Del Mar on turf in late November.

Notable Workouts:

Delta Wind (January 8, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h). Grade: B
Light coaxing only in solo five furlong drill for J. Sadler, final three-eighths in :11.4 and :36.3, solid drill. Recent two races have been far below her best, probably deserves one more look when matched when first-level allowance types.
View Workout Video

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RACE 3: Post: 1:34 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 5-M Is for Magic; 1-Laura Mars; 4-Mendham Mill

Forecast: Here’s a messy maiden sprint for older fillies and mares. We’ll go three deep in rolling exotic play but otherwise pass the race. M Is For Magic is a 10-race maiden and clearly not one to trust, but she’s been in the money in her last pair in similar events and projects to be on or near a very comfortable early pace. She just may have found a field she can beat. Laura Mars shortens to a sprint after failing to land a blow in her U.S. debut over a route of ground on grass at Del Mar in November. She switches to F. Prat, lands the good rail, and should heard from late. Mendham Mill, a decent runner-up at 10-1 in her debut sprinting on turf at Del Mar in the fall, returns with a moderate series of works for trainer M. Glatt (good stats with second-timers). Any kind of forward move will make her dangerous.

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RACE 4: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: B
Single: 4-Gerlach’s

Forecast: Gerlach’s broke his maiden in a $20,000 sprint at Del Mar with a career top speed figure, and if he can turn in two alike the D. O’Neill-trained gelding should be capable of scoring right back in this $16,000 restricted (nw-2) affair. The pace scenario looks soft, so if he can make the early lead, all the better. None of the other five entrants looks attractive, so let’s make this Grazen gelding a single and hope to get close to his morning line of 5/2.

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RACE 5: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 4-My Summer Dream; 5-Dixie’s Two Stents

Forecast: This maiden claiming turf sprint for $50,000 older horses doesn’t have a whole lot in it, so we’ll double the race in rolling exotic play and hope that’s enough. My Summer Dream makes a trainer switch to J. Mullins and should improve enough to handle this modest task. A closing third in a similar affair over the local lawn during the fall season, the Summer Front gelding returns with a steady series of workouts that should have him plenty fit and that, plus the addition of F. Prat in the saddle, makes him strictly the one to beat. Dixie’s Two Stents is worth including somewhere on your ticket as well. Based strictly on speed figures, he’s a fit with these, and with a bit of help up front could produce a closing kick that might make him dangerous.

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RACE 6: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference: 2-Little Rachel; 6-Roses R Blue

Forecast: Little Rachel is listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite in this starter optional claimer for fillies and mares and seems like the logical pick even though she will be making her first start in nearly a year. If she returns as well as she left, the J. Sadler-trained filly will be tough to handle and a recent sharp gate work is encouraging, so we’ll put her on top. Roses R Blue also should be included in rolling exotic play. The S. Knapp-trained filly is comfortably drawn outside, and in a race that likely will have soft early fractions the daughter of Bluegrass Cat projects to be on or near the lead throughout.

Notable Workouts:

Little Rachel (January 8, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2hg). Grade: B
Much best over Lovely Lola (5f, 1:01.1h) while mostly in hand throughout, splits of :24.3, :36.2, :48.1 and 1:00.2 before galloping to the wire in 1:14.4, rather nice. Been away for 11 months but is coming back at least as good as she left. Not an early speed type but can turn it on late.
View Workout Video

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RACE 7: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 5-Virulente; 6-Impeachd Alexander; 1-Liam’s Dove

Forecast: Trainer P. D’Amato has a couple of intriguing European imports in this six furlong turf sprint over the flat course for first-level allowance sophomore fillies and both look live and well-meant. Virulente has the benefit of a prior local outing and should produce a significant forward move after finishing a somewhat troubled seventh, beaten less than three lengths, in the Jimmy Durante S.-G3 at Del Mar in November. She shortens to a one-corner race while tackling easier foes, adding blinkers and Lasix, and attracting F. Prat. This is a field she’s supposed to beat, but if she can’t, it may because her stablemate, Impeachd Alexander, is pretty decent herself. The Irish invader wasn’t quite up to stakes and valuable handicap competition overseas but could easily be a much better type on this circuit, and a recent training track workout was noteworthy (see below). We’ll also toss in the speedy Liam’s Dove, who may be quick enough from the rail to gain control early. Her last four starts have come around two turns, but the daughter of Liam’s Map picks up Johnny V., adds Lasix, and seems likely to improve at this shorter trip.

Notable Workouts:

Virulente (January 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.1h TT). Grade: B-
In company outside Bacchanalia (5f, 1:02.2h TT), breaking off a length behind that one and finishing head-and-head at the wire, light urging only, final half mile on our watches in :23.4 and :49.1. Okay work, maintenance-type drill for P. D’Amato, probably a bit better than her U.S. debut shows.
View Workout Video

Impeachd Alexander (January 10, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.2h TT). Grade: B-
Picked this team up at the head of the lane with ‘Alexander well clear and then holding off Midnight Silence (5f, 1:02.4h) without really being asked much, looking nice through the stretch while gearing up for her U.S. debut. Irish juvenile form was just okay, but she could be a better type over here for P. D’Amato. Seems fit enough.
View Workout Video

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RACE 8: Post: 4:05 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 5-Saturday Heist; 6-Hot Rageous

Forecast: Saturday Heist returns to dirt and should bounce back with a top effort in this state-bred entry-level allowance sprint for fillies and mares. A two-time winner (in three starts) over the local main track, the V. Brinkerhoff-trained filly looks very much like the controlling speed, and if she can clear without pressure, she’ll be hard to run down. Hot Rageous was burned up on a hot pace when fading out of the picture in the Bear Fan S. up north last time out but against this softer group the daughter of Idiot Proof should stick around a long longer. We’re expecting the R. Baltas-trained filly to be within striking range outside and then have her chance when the pressure is turned on. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with the edge on top going to Saturday Heist.

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RACE 9: Post: 4:35 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 1-Fly to Mars; 4-Irish Heatwave; 2-Constitutionaffair

Forecast: The finale is a contentious starter allowance turf miler that should be made to order for Fly to Mars, a five time winner (with three seconds) from 15 career starts over the Santa Anita grass course. Johnny V. stays aboard the veteran gelding, who finished a weakening third in an off-the-turf affair over a wet fast track last month but should be capable of returning to winning form while switching back to his preferred surface. We’re anticipating the son of Minister’s Wild Cat will take full advantage of his good inside post and enjoy an ideal ground-saving pace-stalking journey. Irish Heatwave was a clever winner over this course and distance in a similar starter’s event last fall and returns with a healthy recent series of workouts that should have him plenty fit. A four-time winner on turf at Santa Anita, the son of Unusual Heat can be effective on the front end or from mid-pack early position. U. Rispoli stays aboard, knows him well, and should have him within range when the field heads for home. Constitutionaffair switches to F. Prat and projects to be a pace presser/stalker throughout. A recent bullet workout on the training track (4f, :48h) was visually quite pleasing, so the M. Glatt-trained gelding is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.

Notable Workouts:

Constitutionaffair (January 7, Santa Anita, 5f, :48h TT). Grade: B+
Very nice solo training track drill for M. Glatt, breezing throughout while coming the final three furlongs in :11.3 and :35 flat. Most effective over a distance of ground and looks quite capable of improving his recent form.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-16-2022, 09:33 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk: My Late Pick 4 Ticket Sunday at Gulfstream

January 16, 2022 | By Jerry Shottenkirk

A 1.5-mile trek over the turf in the ninth race is the headliner on Gulfstream Park’s program on Sunday, and it marks the return of a horse that was unlucky in his what was his first start on this side of the Atlantic.

Arturo Toscanini rates the edge in the third leg of the Late Pick 4 despite finishing sixth in his first attempt here as he didn’t perform well as the race was taken off the turf. The surface wasn’t his cup of tea, and he’s back to the grass today and should improve in his second local try.

The suggested Pick six ticket totals $60, and here’s the way I see it:

7th Race (3:37 p.m. ET, claiming)

NOBLE INTENTIONS is in the middle of a group that is distance challenged, but with a gang of runners going for the lead, she will be ideally set up for a late move. She did so in her last two and settled for fourth and third, and while it’ll take a clear path through traffic, it’s certainly a possibility in this dash.

It’s difficult to put all the eggs in one basket in such a race, so it’s worth it to spread out.

Also on the ticket: MS BIG SPRING, CANARSIE ANGEL, LISA STAR, ALIZEE.

8th Race (4:11 p.m. ET, starter optional claiming)

MILES AHEAD is 8 of 16 at Gulfstream and comes in off a tremendous score in the Claiming Crown Rapid Transit. His only recent blemish came in the Grade 1 A.G. Vanderbilt at Saratoga when he was roughed up at the start and then forced wide.

He had too much early trouble to make an impact that day, but his local races are plenty good enough.

Also on the ticket: VINNIE VAN GO.

9th Race (4:42 p.m. ET, allowance optional claiming)

ARTURO TOSCANINI is perfectly spotted here as he catches allowance optional claiming company going 1 1-2 miles. His only try at the distance came in the G1 Irish Derby at the Curragh, and his first in nearly seven months (and first in the U.S. in an event that came off the turf due to weather conditions).

Makes his second for Mark Casse, and he can show considerable improvement this time.

Also on the ticket: GLOUCESTERSHIRE, JARREAU, CONQUER THE WORLD.

10th Race (5:14 p.m. ET, maiden claiming)

ELUSIVE UNCAPTURED turns back from two-turn races in her last two and should benefit from going the 5.5 furlongs here. She showed enough speed in earlier sprints to be dangerous.

This race marks her 10th start, and she has a second and four thirds on her record. Lands in a spot she should be able to handle.

Also on the ticket: LATTE LOVER, SUMMER BEAUTY.

Gulfstream Park 50-cent Late Pick 4:
7) #3 Ms Big Spring, #5 Canarsie, #6 Noble Intentions, #10 Lisa Star, #11 Alizee.
8) #1 Miles Ahead, #7 Vinnie Van Go.
9) #2 Gloucestershire, #3 Jarreau, #5 Arturo Toscanini, #6 Conquer the World.
10) #6 Elusive Uncaptured, #8 Latte Lover, #9 Summer Beauty.
The ticket: 3-5-6-10-11 with 1-7 with 2-3-5-6 with 6-8-9 ($60).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-16-2022, 09:33 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fair Grounds - Race #3
Picks Notes
#6 Anita's Vision She might be the right one in a race with a couple of forward players who can set the table for her, as she has some positional pace and an ability to pass horses late.
#2 Canada's Customs She has some ability to sit close in the early going, but she has given away ground late in all three career starts, so she might be vulnerable late at a short kind of price.
#1 Macee Think she'll have some company in the early going, but her stretchout pace makes her at least a little dangerous on the move around two turns. Chance to wire them.
Race Summary Anita's Vision should get the right kind of trip while tracking the pace in the early going, and she should offer a better number than the likely chalk, Canada's Customs.

Fair Grounds - Race #7
Picks Notes
#3 Golden Luna Forward player is not meeting a ton of serious early burn, and he might be able to stretch this group out a little bit as he makes his third lifetime start with a little bit of upside.
#6 Sparky Hale He debuted with stakes company at Lone Star, and he was gaining a bit late, giving him some upside while trying maidens here in this second lifetime start. Thinking he'll be tough here from off the pace.
#7 Loyal to the Game He's bred to want to go a bit longer than this, but it doesn't feel like he's meeting the deepest bunch at first asking, and the price should be right to see if he can get in the mix.
Race Summary Golden Luna looks like the right one in a spot where he should be able to show some pace, and maybe he doesn't take a ton of heat today and sticks around a bit better in the lane.

Fair Grounds - Race #8
Picks Notes
#5 Inajiffy She has been pretty sharp when racing outside of stakes company, so the class drop should work in her favor here after failing to produce a serious rally with stakes types last out.
#8 Lady of Luxury She is in super reliable form right now, and she figures to get a really good go of things from the outside while prompting the pace. Surface switch might wake her up a bit.
#2 Sail on Ellen She's bringing some really sharp turf sprint form with her to this, and she's another who should be able to land a pretty good trip near the top with these.
Race Summary Inajiffy should be rolling late on the move outside of stakes company, and she might offer a price that's just playable enough even while facing this softer bunch.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-16-2022, 09:34 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#2 Unicorn Sally Has an eye-catching move much of the time and can be chewing up the ground late in this one; last win came at Saratoga, she fits very well here and can successfully make the switch to synth.
#3 Isla Bonita Keep hot-riding Lopez and has been a solid third in her last two here; faced decent runner in her career and can make a run in this.
#5 Gabby Squared Had won two straight until a third-place finish last out; was solid in the northeast and can be a factor.
Race Summary Unicorn Sally has dropped far back in deep fields and gets a break with only five opponents; can work her way through for the win.

Gulfstream Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#2 Etched in Stone Closed for third at Hawthorne last time, and the Rivelli stable is getting warm again; was very competitive in good races at Arlington last year and was second at GP in a race similar to this.
#4 Sayyaaf Won two of his last three and makes his second start off the claim for Maker; can go when asked early.
#7 Coop Tries Harder Was third in his last threat and can has enough speed to stay in range early and he could make up some ground vs. these.
Race Summary Etched in Stone has been competitive in solid sprints and has the speed and class to warrant a lot of attention.

Gulfstream Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#1 Hard Choice Caught a sloppy track in her only start and finished third; has enough speed to be in close attendance and can improve off that debut.
#3 Chess Not Checkers Has been on the board in all eight starts, including five seconds and three thirds; a factor at any surface or distance.
#5 Chasing Joy Ran on for second in her debut and was claimed by the Eppler stable; has a bullet work for the new outfit and can be in the mix from the start.
Race Summary Hard Choice gave way but still finishing third as he caught the slop in her first one; likely to get better results this time around.