Sunday 1/16/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-16-2022, 02:40 PM

Aqueduct Hotlist - January 16

Today’s New York Hot List races to watch – Sunday, January 16, 2022 at Aqueduct
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

2^nd race [Clm 40000 N2L, 7F] – (4) Boss Cara broke her maiden for a $40,000 tag at Aqueduct two races back and then tried a starter allowance where she did compete well. This is a big drop in class. (3) Summary Judgment broke her maiden for a $20,000 tag and did so on the front end by a margin of six lengths. (5) Cinderella’s Cause broke her maiden in a NY-bred race at Belmont in the fall and was been competitive in those races. (6) Linny Kate was claimed for $25,000 last race at the Big A in a N2L condition.

4^th race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 7F] – (5) Tempermental (B) was second in her second career start at Aqueduct but was well ahead of the rest of that field. (2) Laochi has earned a check in all five starts of her career including a third in a recent NY-bred stake. She began her career with a second behind the unbeaten Classy Edition at Saratoga. (6) Over the Sand will make his second start for Mark Hennig whose barn in doing well this winter. (1) Stone Creator will debut for Charlie Baker. The daughter of Creative Cause is out of a mare that has produced 3 winners from 3 to start including a $103,000 earner.

7^th race [Clm 8000, 1 mi] – (8) Playwright (C) ran third at this level last time after getting bet down from 10-1 to 7-1. (1) Legit was claimed for $16,000 last start after a brief layoff and now makes a drop clearly looking for a quick win. (2) Magnetron was claimed from $8,000 two races ago where he was second by a neck after getting the lead in the stretch. Off the claim, he tried a $16,000 race. (3) Flowers for Lisa set the pace and finished second for $10,000 in his most recent effort.

8^th race [Ladies Handicap, 1 1/8 mi] – (4) Battle Bling (C) finished second, beaten by just a neck after getting bet significantly from 18-1 to 10-1, and got claimed for $62,500 by Rob Atras. (5) Miss Leslie is the winner of her last three races that includes two stakes at Laurel for trainer Claudio Gonzalez who does ship to New York often enough. (6) Its Cold in Dehere was claimed from a victory for $62,500 at Churchill Downs by Linda Rice. This 6-year-old mare has 10 wins in her career. (3) Vienna Code won a top-level allowance for NY-breds at the Big A.

Best bets: Boss Cara (2^nd); Battle Bling (8^th). Best value: Tempermental (4^th); Playwright (7^th).

No.	Name	Letter/ last race	Today's Race	Comments
(5)	Tempermental	B on 12/19	4	Finished second, well ahead of the others.
(8)	Playwright	C on 12/9	7	Ran third with the drop in class.
(4)	Battle Bling	C on 12/19	8	Rallied for a close second and got claimed.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-16-2022, 02:41 PM

Gulfstream Park Hotlist - January 16

Today’s Gulfstream Park Hot List races to watch
Sunday, Jan. 16, 2022
By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (10) Paintbrush (B) was an OK third after a rank, wide trip. He has been getting better and should relish a switch back to dirt and benefit from the addition of Lasix. (1) Only Girl also adds Lasix and should get a ground-saving trip. (6) Vintage Girl drops to a level where she can be successful. (8) We’ve Had Enough may finally be ready to graduate from the maiden ranks. Betting strategy: 10 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-6-8-10.

3rd race – (4) Blue Times graduated in front-running style at Aqueduct and can make it two in a row here. (5) Gabby Squared looks like the one to fear. (6) Control Function has a strong late kick and should be a factor in the final furlong. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-5-6.

5th race – (4) Sayyaaf takes a big drop off the claiming price for Maker and gets a slight nod in a competitive field. (2) Etched in Stone returns to turf and should turn in a better effort. (8) The Predicament switches to Saez and may wake up. (9) Baby Boomer ships over from Tampa and seems well-meant. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-8-9.

9th race – (5) Arturo Toscanini returns to turf and a distance that suits him. Can make sweet music here. (6) Conquer the World looked good posting a maiden win and shapes up as the one to fear. (3) Jarreau cuts back in distance and that may make a difference. (2) Gloucestershire, a British import, should be a factor in his second U.S. start. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-5-6. Doubles: 2-3-5-6 with 2-5-6-8.

10th race – (6) Elusive Uncaptured has a nice turn of speed and drops to a level where she may not be caught. (5) Certain Hearts is working sharply for her debut and is worth a close look. (8) Latte Lover might welcome a switch to Tapeta. (2) Senorita Salsa has late kick and would benefit from a quick pace Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-5-6-8.

No.

Letter/Last race

Today’s race

Comment

(10)

Paintbrush

B, 12/31

1 GP

Might hang on in this spot

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-16-2022, 02:42 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 3	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager) $1 Pick Three
Claiming $2,500 • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 65 • Purse: $8,000 • Post: 6:16P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 16 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500 (MAIDEN AND CLAIMING RACES FOR $2,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. VERMEER is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DAPPER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. VERMEER: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. RUN MANNY RUN: Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. Today is a sp rint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
6	DAPPER	8/5	4/1
5	VERMEER	9/5	5/1
3	RUN MANNY RUN	4/1	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	VERMEER	5	9/5	Alternator/Front-runner	72	69	0.0	0.0	0.0
6	DAPPER	6	8/5	Alternator/Stalker	71	66	40.4	63.0	59.5
3	RUN MANNY RUN	3	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	70	60	35.8	51.2	46.2
2	MARKSMAN ON TARGET	2	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	59	51	33.2	51.8	45.8
1	LOVE AND HOLD	1	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	52	44.3	49.4	41.4
4	W. WHITEHOUSE	4	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	74	71	14.6	49.8	42.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-16-2022, 02:43 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park

Gulfstream Park - Race 9	$1 Daily Double / $2 Quinella / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Super Hi 5
Optional Claiming $35,000 • 1 1/2 Miles • Turf • Ages 4 and up • CR: 102 • Purse: $61,000 • Post: 4:42P
(RAIL AT 35 FEET). FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $35,000. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OVER A MILE ON THE TURF SINCE OCTOBER 16 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $35,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $30,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES)(MAIDEN RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (CONDITION ELIGIBILITY). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE TAPETA COURSE AT ONE MILE AND ONE HALF MILES)

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. JARREAU is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * JARREAU: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. ARTURO TOSCANINI (IRE): Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has th e highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
3	JARREAU	5/1	3/1
5	ARTURO TOSCANINI (IRE)	9/2	7/1
1	LANDBISCUIT	10/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	JARREAU	3	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	101	100	93.8	93.2	86.7
8	JIMMY D	8	20/1	Trailer	94	94	90.6	92.8	80.3
5	ARTURO TOSCANINI (IRE)	5	9/2	Trailer	97	97	86.3	92.0	84.5
2	GLOUCESTERSHIRE	2	7/2	Trailer	96	93	79.6	87.2	81.2
7	ROYALE	7	4/1	Trailer	90	86	78.2	85.0	74.5
1	LANDBISCUIT	1	10/1	Trailer	97	96	73.2	92.0	83.0
6	CONQUER THE WORLD	6	3/1	Trailer	89	90	70.2	86.0	77.5
4	ONENIGHTSTANDARDS	4	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	105	98	70.4	89.6	79.1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-16-2022, 02:43 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Laurel - Race #10 - Post: 4:38pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $37,800 Class Rating: 81

Rating:

#5 JOHNNY SWISH (ML=6/1)
#6 LET ME FINISH (ML=15/1)

JOHNNY SWISH - I surely see good things for this steed right here. LET ME FINISH - I'm anticipating this horse to run a big race today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 TREASURE TRADITION (ML=2/5), #4 RAHMER (ML=9/2),

TREASURE TRADITION - Hasn't raced or had any morning blow outs since November 25th. Not much value on this morning-line favorite. RAHMER - This gelding hasn't had any recent good results in short distance affairs. Difficult to bet on him in this contest. This gelding hasn't been showing me anything in the last two races.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 JOHNNY SWISH is going to be the play if we are getting 7/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-16-2022, 02:44 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Oaklawn Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $32000 Class Rating: 86

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 16, 2021 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000, IF FOR $25,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 BEACHWALKER 3/1
# 1 ONE LAST HAND 6/1
# 2 ASSUMPTION 6/1

I think BEACHWALKER is a decent choice. Might best this field here, showing solid numbers of late. He has put up very good figs under today's conditions and will almost certainly fare well against this group of animals. No strangers to the winner's circle, Moquett and Cabrera will almost certainly have this gelding breaking away from the field. ONE LAST HAND - With a respectable 84 Equibase speed fig last time out, will surely be a factor in this contest. Solid average speed figs in dirt route races make this animal a contender. ASSUMPTION - Chleborad has a sharp win percent with horses racing in dirt route races. Overall, this trainer has been lucrative at this distance/surface.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-16-2022, 02:44 PM

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Turfway Park

01/16/22, TP, Race 7, 4.05 ET
01/16/22,TP,7,1M [Dirt] 1:35:00 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $66,000 (includes up to $31,000 KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $7,500 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000. Weight, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of $18,600 Twice At A Mile Or Over Since October 16 Allowed 3 lbs. Claiming Price $40,000 (Races Where Entered For $35,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	3	Incorrigible	15/1	Ramos J D	Esquivel Jesus	TS	169	35.50	1.40/$1
098.4804	6	Gigging	15/1	McKee J	Cash Norman L.	JC	54	35.19	2.13/$1
097.6168	4	Beatbox	3/1	Bejarano R	Morey William E.		54	35.19	2.13/$1
095.3692	12	Prince Maior	15/1	Achard A	Lobo Paulo H.		54	35.19	2.13/$1
094.9531	11	Kingmeister	6/1	Esquivel E	Asmussen Steven M.		54	35.19	2.13/$1
094.3981	1	Real Money	8/1	Corrales G	Casse Mark E.	W	54	35.19	2.13/$1
092.0688	7	Fort Moultrie	4/1	Gonzalez S	McGaughey J. Reeve		54	35.19	2.13/$1
088.5157	13	Jungle Warfare	15/1	Bejarano R	Romans Dale L.		328	27.13	1.17/$1
088.0235	8	Expressed	30/1	Jimenez A	Lauer Michael E.		328	27.13	1.17/$1
087.5584	9	Bear Alley	6/1	Talamo J	Romans Dale L.	FEL	54	35.19	2.13/$1
085.6995	5	Celerity	30/1	Mojica. Jr. R	Cundiff Waylon		54	35.19	2.13/$1
082.4832	2	Spectacular Gem	6/1	Felix J E	Sherman Justin		54	35.19	2.13/$1
082.2959	10	Gallant Guy	15/1	Miller C	Gonzalez Reina E.		54	35.19	2.13/$1

Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 0.00, ROI 0.00/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -1.5196
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Dirt] Best Speed