9-6-08

[timbob]

Re: 9-6-08

JB Sports

Best Bets - BC, UTEP, Cuse
Reg - Cent FL

[timbob]

Re: 9-6-08

Rob Veno

20 Blue Chip - Bowling Green over, Duke over
10 Chip - Pitt, WVU, ND, Ariz over, N TX over

[timbob]

Re: 9-6-08

WUNDERDOG

NCAAF

Game: Connectuct at Temple (Saturday 9/06 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Temple +7 (-110)

Sometimes it is good to have a short memory while other times (like this one) it is good to remember the past. The Owls won five games last year, but were only credited with four. They had one stolen when a late TD was ruled out of bounds by the refs, while replays clearly showed otherwise. The Owls return all 22 starters this season, all with a fresh memory of that game. Revenge is a sweet motive! Add to that the fact that this team was told a few years ago that they were no longer wanted in the Big East. The Owls finally have the talent to make a statement about those painful memories. Connecticut was the luckiest team in the Big East last season, getting wins vs. Temple and Louisville that were aided by botched calls. They also got a weather break against South Florida and had a huge surplus in turnovers and relatively few injuries. The result? They finished tied for first in the Big last despite being outgained by nearly 100 yards per game! They looked absolutely horrible against a hapless Hofstra team last week, and won because their talent was just extreme vs the competition. They don't enjoy that edge here, and this one is on the road where the Huskies are just 5-14 in their last 19. The Owls are motivated and pumped up here and we like them a lot to get the cover.

WNBA
Game: Minnesota at Seattle (10:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Minnesota +6.5 (-110)

The Minnesota Lynx make the trip to Seattle to take on the Storm who will put their homecourt magic to the test as they are a league leading 14-1 in Seattle. The fact is the Storm seem to bring their best for the best, but have won by six or less at home to Phoenix, Sacramento, Chicago and Houston! So as much as this one looks like a game for the Storm to just show up, and put one in the win column. It's a letdown opportunity and we look for Seattle to sleepwalk through this one, getting the win, but not the cover. I think this is the perfect "breather" game for them, and the Storm are just 14-29 ATS the past decade coming off an underdog win. I like the Lynx

[timbob]

Re: 9-6-08

VegasSnitch

Boston College 5*
Connecticut 5*
Ohio St 2*

[timbob]

Re: 9-6-08

Tommy Rider

CFB Total Triple-Dime Bet
372 Arizona / 371 Toledo Over 58.0 Bodog
Analysis:
I wrote a blog post back in June where I declared that Arizona was the "Top OVER team in College Football this Season." I didn't take the OVER last week because I wanted to sit back and watch the Wildcats offense and see what happened. Well, what happened was 521 yards and 70 points.



Last year Sonny Dykes brought the Texas Tech-spread offense to Tucson. After a few early bumps in the road, the Wildcats were an offensive machine toward the end of the season. In winning three of their final four games, Arizona scored 48, 34 and 34 points respectively. They also topped forty points two other times last season. Now add in the 70-point outburst against Idaho last week and you are witnessing one of the most explosive offenses in CFB.



The thing I love about this offense is its continuity. The Cats return 10 starters on the offensive side of the ball, including QB Willie Tuitama, so virtually every player on the field is in their second year in Dykes' system. Arizona is loaded with quality receivers to team with Tuitama. Last week Tuitama was 17-of-21 for 169 yards and three scores in just over a half of work.



Don't be fooled by Arizona pitching a shutout last week either. Idaho is God-awful. This actually helps us because the young Wildcats defense has yet to be tested and it keeps the line down. Arizona is replacing its entire defensive line, both starting corners and two starting linebackers from a year ago. They have no proven pass rushers, which means the new corners will be tested early and often by Toledo.



Granted, this is the Rockets first game of the season but I believe they will have one of the top offenses in the country themselves this year. Led by quarterback Aaron Opelt, Toledo is going to put up a ton of points this season. Toledo has five starters returning on defense but they are returning to a unit that gave up almost 40 points a game in 2007. The Rockets ranked near the bottom in both rush and total defense last year. Toledo's defense is going to have a heck of a time slowing down Arizona's high-flying offense this week.



When taking an OVER, you need both teams to score. That should be no problem at all here. I expect this game to go well over 80 points and with the early line sitting at 58, I'm not only going to hit this hard, I'm making it my CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH! ***3 UNIT PLAY***


Sat, 09/06/08 - 3:30 PMTommy Rider | CFB Side Double-Dime Bet
328 Oklahoma -21.0 (-120) BetUS vs 327 Cincinnati

Analysis: I think the Sooners are the best team in the country and they name their score in this game. A lot of people will take the points with Cincy because they have been a covering machine of late. However, the single biggest thing I learned from Bill Belichick when I worked for the Patriots is that every game is its own entity. No matter what trends or numbers say, the team that plays the best will win on Saturday. I think in this matchup, the Sonners are five touchdowns better than the Bearcats. I know it was just Chattanooga but the Sooners beat them in one of the most lopsided games I've ever seen. OU had a 27-1 edge in first downs and outgained Chattanooga in total yards 487-36! So you would think Bob Stoops would have been happy with such a dominant performance. Well, think again. Leading 50-2 at the half, Stoops put his starters back in because he said they needed to be sharp for this game. Bearcats quarterback Dustin Grutza had a strong outing last week but I've never been impressed with him. I expect the Sooners to control this game in the trenches on both sides of the ball by getting after Grutza on defense and wearing down a smallish Cincinnati front on offense. This game has blowout written all over it. The Sooners make a statement Saturday and win big.. ***2 UNIT PLAY***
Sat, 09/06/08 - 4:30 PMTommy Rider | CFB Side Single-Dime Bet
315 West Virginia -7.0 (-115) Sportsbetting.com vs 316 East Carolina
Analysis: East Carolina is a nice story but there's just too much line value for me to pass up here. I asked a guy out in Vegas what the line would be in this game if ECU didn't block that punt and he said around 15 or16 points. So we are getting nine points in value because of one blocked punt? Again, I can't pass that up. First of all, Virginia Tech sucks. They are so bad this year that Frank Beamer was going to redshirt Tyrod Taylor for the future. Why? Because the Hokies are young and will be loaded the next couple of years. But even as bad as the Hokies are this year, they still should have beaten ECU last week. Now the Pirates are taking on a Top 5 team and only getting a TD. Yet people like ECU. Why? West Virginia is far superior in every way to Va Tech and Pat White will have no trouble moving the ball on offense. Plus, all the pressure is on ECU now. They are at home coming off a huge win and people actually expect them to beat WV. I'm not one of those people. I like the Mountaineers by 17 points in this game and like I said, this line is too good for us not to throw a unit on it. I bought it down to 7 just to be safe and I would advise you to do the same. ***1 UNIT PLAY***


Sat, 09/06/08 - 10:00 PMTommy Rider | CFB Side Single-Dime Bet
373 Stanford 14.0 (-110) BetUS vs 374 Arizona St.

Analysis: I'm playing this game for 1 Unit because it came from my Pac 10 Insider. This is an old friend of mine who covers Pac 10 sports for a living. He gives me 15-20 plays a year in football and usually hits around 65 percent. Not many people know Pac 10 football better than this guy. He sent me a text message tonight that said, "Take Stanford plus the points. Could win outright." I play all of his games for 1 unit unless he tells me otherwise. Like I said, his information has been very strong over the years and if he likes Stanford to possibly win this game, the 14 points should be more than enough. He's not always right but he's right a lot more times than he's wrong and he really has a knack for hitting Pac 10 underdogs. ***1 UNIT Play***

[timbob]

Re: 9-6-08

Northcoast

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 arizona st, oklahoma
3 calf, ecar, wash

small
4 ul monroe
3.5 syarcuse
3 pitt
2 kent, temple

[timbob]

Re: 9-6-08

Cajun-Sports

CFB Executive Report

2 STAR SELECTION

IOWA -26½ over Florida International

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: IOWA 41 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 7


3 STAR SELECTION

AUBURN -17 ½ over Southern Mississippi

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: AUBURN 37 SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 10


2 STAR SELECTION

WASHINGTON STATE +14 over California

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: WASHINGTON STATE 23 CALIFORNIA 21


4 STAR SELECTION

Rice +3 over MEMPHIS

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: RICE 36 MEMPHIS 31


5 STAR SELECTION

NEVADA +10 over Texas Tech

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: TEXAS TECH 37 NEVADA 35

[timbob]

Re: 9-6-08

Beat Your Bookie

100-Milk.
50- Tampa Bay

100- BYU
50- Cinn.
50-S.Fla.


BOOKIE PAYS YOU:
======================================== ==================

After Navy and Ball State fold in the second half costing us what looked to be
a lock at halftime with the over. We will rebound today, and we WILL do so big!
Get on the OVER in the Michigan State vs. Eastern Michigan matchup. There's
no such thing as a guarantee when you're gambling... BUT, this looks about as
close to a guarantee as I've seen in a while. This one is going over the posted
56pts. for several reasons... 1) Michigan State is favored by 24pts.... That's a
clear sign that they will put up huge numbers, simply because they'll have to just
to cover the spread. 2) Michigan State has covered the over in 4 straight home
games, and 5 of 6 overall. 3) Eastern Michigan has covered the over in their
last 4 overall. Bottom Line... Eastern Michigan always finds a way to score
plenty of points and they'll do so today. While Michigan State will have to
counter that with points by the truckload in order to cover the spread. Both
teams+lots of points= OVER 56pts. Thanks.

[timbob]

Re: 9-6-08

Vegas Sports Experts

The VSE NCAA REVENGE Football Power Play is:

10* Take Wyoming (-3) over Air Force (NCAA Power Play)
3:30 PM EST (Guaranteed NCAA REVENGE game of the Year)

Wyoming
• 7-1 SU as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons
• 4-1 SU when playing in the 1st 2 weeks of the season
• 5-0 SU in home games when the total posted is 42 points or less
• Lost to Air Force 20-12 last season (REVENGE)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5* Take Michigan (-14) over Miami-OH (Bonus Play)
12:00 PM EST

Miami-OH
• 1-7 ATS coming off an OVER total the last 3 years
• 0-3 SU & ATS when the total posted is 42 points or less
• 1-11 SU as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


5* Take West Virginia (-7.5) over East Carolina (Bonus Play)
4:30 PM EST

West Virginia
• 13-0 SU when playing in non-conference games
• 9-0 SU when playing in the 1st month of the season
• 7-1 ATS as a road favorite of 7.5 to 10 points

[timbob]

Re: 9-6-08

Frank Rosenthal

Mlb
901 Philly+120 Sb
903 Dbacks+110 Sb
Under 7.5 Sb+
904 Padres+140 Sb
Under 7.5 Sb+
912 Cards-140 Sb+
926 Kc-120 Sb+

College Football Saturday
305 Ea Mich Under 57sb
306 Mich St-20.5 Sb
312 Duke+7 Sb+
Under 43.5 Sb+
314 Bc-6.5 Sb
315 West Va-7 Sb+
328 Ok-21 Sb
334 Fl-22 Sb+
Under 51.5 Sb+
341 Af+3 Sb
346 Nd-21 Sb
363 Uconn-6.5 Sb
373 Stanford+14.5 Sb
381 Tulsa-21 Sb

[timbob]

Re: 9-6-08

CHARLIE SPORTS

500 Mich
30 S Jose
20 Mich St
20 Wisc
10 Auburn
10 Ohio U


Big @L

At 12 Noon (time change), on Saturday, on ESPN-U television, our selection is on the Temple Owls plus the points over Connecticut.

At 5 pm (televised on the Versus Network), our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos over Texas A&M.

At 7:30 pm, on ESPN-U television, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers plus the points over Bowling Green, as we will fade the Falcons off last week's upset win, and look for Minnesota to avenge its 32-31 home loss to BGSU last season.

At 3:55pm our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers 'under' the total.

[timbob]

Re: 9-6-08

MIGHTY QUINN


Mighty is 0-2 in foots this week
Wash and s carolina both losers

He's 8~12 for the year
8~11 in college
0~1 in nfl

heres his selections


Florida -21 FOR HIS BEST BET


Akron...
Michigan..
West Virg..
Auburn..
Georgia..
Penn St...
NDame..
New Mex...
Cali...
Temple

[timbob]

Re: 9-6-08

Sports Advisors

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Georgia Tech (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at Boston College (1-0 SU and ATS)

Boston College begins its quest to defend its Atlantic Division title when it hosts Georgia Tech in the first ACC game of the season.

Both teams prepped for this contest with easy victories last week. Boston College rushed for 230 yards en route to blanking Kent State 21-0 as a 10-point road favorite, while Georgia Tech easily disposed of I-AA foe Jacksonville State 41-14 in a non-lined game. The Yellow Jackets had 349 rushing yards, but did commit two turnovers.

The Eagles have struggled in ACC contests of late, going 1-4 ATS in their last five and they’ve struggled getting the cash in front of the home fans, going 0-4 ATS in the last four. On the plus side, Boston College is on ATS runs of 6-2 in September games and 15-7 against teams with a winning record.

The ‘Jackets are on ATS slides of 1-4 overall dating back to last season, 0-5-1 after a straight-up win and 1-4 against a team with a winning mark. But in the role of underdog, Georgia Tech is 6-2-1 ATS over the last two campaigns.

Boston College took last year’s battle, getting a 24-10 win as a 6½-point road ‘dog. The underdog has cashed in four of the last five between these two dating back to 1989, and the road team has won four straight outright.

Georgia Tech has stayed under in 14 of its last 21 September kickoffs, but the Yellowjackets have topped the total in their last four overall. Boston College has gone over the total in seven of its last 10 home games and five of its last seven in September. But otherwise for the Eagles, the under is on streaks of 5-0 overall, 4-1 against winning teams and 5-2 in ACC battles.

ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA TECH


(8) West Virginia (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at East Carolina (1-0 SU and ATS)

A week after a thrilling upset victory over Virginia Tech, East Carolina will try to shock yet another Top 25 foe when it hosts West Virginia in a non-conference clash.

The Pirates returned a blocked punt for a game-clinching touchdown in the waning minutes against Virginia Tech a week ago, winning 27-22 as a 9½-point home underdog. East Carolina held a massive edge in total offensive, piling up with 369 yards to Va-Tech’s 243.

West Virginia fattened up on Villanova in its opener, rolling 48-21 in a non-lined game. The Mountaineers, always among the nation’s leaders in rushing, finished with just 149 yards on the ground, but passed for 205, while the defense forced three turnovers.

The Pirates have been a moneymaking machine in recent seasons, going 21-8 ATS dating back to the 2005 campaign, including 18-6 ATS as a ‘dog. The Pirates are on additional ATS streaks of 11-3 in September, 4-1 at home, 3-0 against teams with a winning record and 10-4 in non-conference matchups. However, against Big East opposition, East Carolina is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10.

West Virginia has won eight of its last nine games dating back to last September and the Mountaineers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road outings and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 on grass. They’ve also scored at least 28 points in eight of their last nine (4-4 ATS).

West Virginia has dominated this annual rivalry game, winning nine of the last 10 and cashing five of the last seven, including last year’s 48-7 blowout victory as a 24-point home chalk. The straight-up winner is 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes, and the home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight.

For the Pirates, the over is on streaks of 6-2-1 at home, 4-0 when they face a winning team and 5-1-1 after a spread-cover. For West Virginia, the over is 9-4 in its last 13 non-conference games, but the under is 7-2 in its last nine after a straight-up victory.

ATS ADVANTAGE: WEST VIRGINIA


Cincinnati (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at (4) Oklahoma (1-0, 0-0 ATS)

After an easy victory in Week 1, Cincinnati takes a big step up in class when it visits Norman, Okla., to battle the fourth-ranked Sooners.

The Bearcats took it to Division I-AA Eastern Kentucky in a 47-17 opening-week victory, finishing with a 557-195 advantage in total offense, including 209-48 on the ground.

Oklahoma feasted on its own cupcake a week ago, opening up a 50-0 halftime lead en route to a 57-2 home victory over Tennessee-Chattanooga. QB Sam Bradford was sharp, completing 17 of 22 passes for 183 yards and two touchdowns in limited action for the Sooners, who ended with a ridiculous 487-36 edge in total offense.

The Bearcats are on positive ATS streaks of 15-5-2 overall, 8-2-1 as an underdog (4-0 last year), 5-1 on the highway, 6-0 in September, 11-2 on grass, 5-1 versus winning teams and 23-8-1 on the road against winning teams.

The Sooners are on ATS runs of 6-1 in September, 9-4 at home and 4-1 in non-conference matchups. On the negative side, Oklahoma is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 overall and 2-6 ATS in its last eight after a straight-up win.

Cincinnati is on under runs of 5-2 overall, 4-1-1 against teams with a winning record and 4-0 following a straight-up victory. Conversely, Oklahoma has topped the total in eight of nine non-conference games, six of nine at home and six of eight in September.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


Miami (Fla.) (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at (5) Florida (1-0 SU and ATS)

Tim Tebow and the Gators renew their in-state rivalry with Miami (Fla.), and they do so as a massive favorite to upend the Hurricanes at The Swamp in Gainesville.

Tebow, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, was rather pedestrian in his first game as a junior, completing 9 of 14 passes for 137 yards and one TD while adding 37 rushing yards against Hawaii. But it didn’t matter as Florida crushed the Warriors 56-10, easily covering as a 34½-point home favorite.

The Hurricanes took an even easier route to their first victory of 2008, blasting Charleston Southern 52-7 in a non-lined game. Miami had 224 rushing yards, 192 passing yards and held Charleston Southern to just 126 total yards.

Miami is just 7-19-1 ATS in its last 27 games overall and on further negative ATS streaks of 5-11 against winning teams, 3-7 on the highway, 3-9 in September and 3-8 in non-conference games. Additionally, the ‘Canes went just 4-8 ATS last year and are now 12-24 ATS since 2005, including 5-10 ATS on the road in that span and 0-5 ATS in non-conference roadies.

Urban Meyer’s Gators went 6-1 ATS as home favorites last season and they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 against non-conference foes. Florida is also on ATS streaks of 5-1 overall, 8-2 against winning teams and 5-1 on grass, but the Gators are just 2-5 in their last seven September kickoffs.

These two squads haven’t met since 2004, but Miami has been dominant in this series, winning six straight dating back to 1986, including a 27-10 win back in 2004, easily getting the cash as a four-point home favorite. Miami is 5-1 ATS against the Gators since 1986, and the straight-up winner is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings.

For Miami, the under is on streaks of 40-18 overall, 20-6 in non-conference games, 12-3 in September and 17-6 on grass. Florida has stayed under the total in 10 of its last 14 September games, but otherwise the over for the Gators is on streaks of 8-1 overall, 16-5 on grass, 5-1 at home and 5-1 in non-conference games.

ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA


(12) Texas Tech (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at Nevada (1-0, 0-0 ATS)

The scoreboard figures to be working overtime in Reno tonight, as Texas Tech visits Nevada in a battle between two high-powered offenses.

Texas Tech blew out I-AA Eastern Washington 49-24 in a non-lined home game last week, with star QB Graham Harrell playing the entire game and finishing 43-for-58 for 536 passing yards, two TDs and one INT.

Normally a passing team, the Wolf Pack put their running game on display against I-AA Grambling last Saturday, rushing for 426 yards in a 49-13 non-lined home win. Nevada’s defense also stepped up, allowing Grambling just 5 net rushing yards on 40 carries.

The Red Raiders have been a solid play as double-digit chalk since 2003, going 14-7 ATS, including 5-2 ATS as double-digit road favorites. Otherwise Texas Tech is on ATS slides of 5-12 following a straight-up win, 2-5 in non-conference games, 1-4 on the road and 2-6 against winning teams.

The Wolfpack has been tough in front of the home fans, going 20-7 ATS in their last 27 in Reno. They are also on ATS surges of 6-2 in non-conference games and 5-1 in September.

For Texas Tech, the over is on streaks of 10-3 following a straight-up win, 5-1 in non-conference games and 4-1 in September. On the flip side, Nevada is on a host of under streaks, including 4-0 overall, 6-1 at home, 8-2 following a straight-up win and 4-1 at home against winning teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS TECH


(15) BYU (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at Washington (0-1 SU and ATS)

Washington tries to get over the sting of an ugly season-opening loss at Oregon when it welcomes 15th-ranked BYU to Seattle for a non-conference tussle.

The Huskies rallied from an early 14-0 hole against the Ducks on Saturday and closed to within 14-10 at halftime. After the break, though, Washington got steamrolled, losing 44-10 as a 13½-point road underdog, the team’s third straight loss (1-2 ATS) and its 10th in the last 12 games (4-8 ATS). The Huskies gave up 256 rushing yards and 240 passing yards while producing just 242 total yards on their end.

BYU, which is being billed as a possible BCS Bowl party-crasher, got off to a fine start last week, albeit against I-AA Northern Iowa, rolling 41-17 in a non-lined game, extending the nation’s longest winning streak to 11 in a row (6-4 ATS in lined games). QB Max Hall (34-for-41, 485 yards, two TDs, no INTs) was outstanding versus Northern Iowa, but the Cougars got outgained on the ground 149-77 and committed four second-half turnovers.

BYU is 22-11-1 ATS in its last 33 games going back to the middle of the 2005 season. Additionally, the Cougars are on spread-covering tears of 14-7 as a favorite since 2006, 7-3 as a road chalk since 2005, 7-2 against losing teams and 11-5 on the road.

Washington has been a miserable bet at home the last three-plus seasons, going 11-27-2 ATS. However, the Huskies have cashed in four of their last five non-league outings.

These teams met for four straight seasons from 1996-99, with Washington going 3-1 (2-1-1 ATS). The home team is 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in the past six battles since 1985.

The over is 4-0 in Washington’s last four at home, but the under is 5-2 in BYU’s last seven lined games overall and 5-0 in its last five against the Pac-10.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BYU


Ole Miss (1-0 SU and ATS) at (20) Wake Forest (1-0 SU and ATS)

Having kicked off the Houston Nutt era in impressive fashion, Ole Miss now heads out on the road for a tough assignment against Wake Forest.

The Rebels were about as balanced offensively as you could possibly be last week against Memphis, rushing for 216 yards and passing for 222 en route to a 41-24 victory as a 7½-point chalk. However, the defense surrendered 453 yards (188 rushing), but did force two turnovers. Last year, Ole Miss started the season with a win over Memphis, but then lost nine of its final 11 games.

Wake Forest took the field as a preseason Top 25 squad for the first time in school history on Aug. 28 and lived up to its ranking, blitzing Baylor 41-13 as an 11½-point road favorite. Like Ole Miss, the Demon Deacons had a balanced attack (156 rushing yards, 220 passing yards), while the defense forced five turnovers.

Wake Forest has now won and covered four in a row, and since starting out 2007 with consecutive losses, Jim Grobe’s squad is 10-2 SU in its last 12. Also, in addition to cashing in four straight, the Deacons are on ATS rolls of 8-1 overall, 5-0 at home and 13-3 against winning teams.

Going back to the end of last season, the Rebels have covered the number in four straight lined games and six of the last seven. During this stretch, they’re 3-0 ATS on the road and 4-1 ATS as a ‘dog. On the downside, Ole Miss is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 September contests and 3-9 in its last 12 non-conference games.

The schools last faced each other in 2006 in Oxford, Miss., with the Demon Deacons cruising to a 27-3 victory as a two-point road underdog.

The under is on streaks of 7-2 for Ole Miss in September, 20-8 for Ole Miss on the road, 7-2 for Wake Forest in September, 9-3 for Wake at home and 15-5-1 for Wake in non-conference play.

ATS ADVANTAGE: WAKE FOREST and UNDER


Stanford (1-0 SU and ATS) at (15) Arizona State (1-0, 0-0 ATS)

Stanford, which won just three conference games a season ago, looks to start off 2008 with consecutive Pac-10 victories when it travels to Tempe, Ariz., for what figures to be a daunting matchup against the Sun Devils.

The Cardinal kicked off the second year of the Jim Harbaugh era with an impressive 36-28 home win over Oregon State as a three-point underdog. Coupled with last year’s season-ending 20-13 upset of Cal, Stanford has won consecutive games for the first time since October 2005, a stretch of 30 contests.

Against Oregon State, the Cardinal did the bulk of their damage on the ground (210 rushing yards), but the defense allowed a whopping 404 passing yards. They prevailed in large part by winning the turnover battle (3-0).

Arizona State easily dispatched of Northern Arizona 30-13 in a non-lined Week 1 contest. Senior QB Rudi Carpenter was in midseason form, going 22-for-38 for 388 yards and a touchdown, but the Devils got outgained on the ground (139-94).

The Sun Devils have blasted Stanford the last two seasons, winning 38-3 as a 23½-point home favorite in 2006 and 41-3 as a 15-point road chalk last year. Previously, the Cardinal had been on a 7-1 run in this rivalry. Finally, the SU winner has cashed in eight of the last nine meetings.

Despite last week’s win, Stanford remains mired in ATS funks of 6-14 in conference play, 1-9 in September and 8-13 as an underdog. Conversely, ASU is on a 20-8-1 ATS roll in September and a 10-1 ATS spurt as a double-digit favorite, but Dennis Erickson’s squad ended 2007 with five straight non-covers.

For Stanford, the under is on runs of 45-17-1 overall, 37-14-1 in Pac-10 play and 23-6-1 on the road. Meanwhile, Arizona State sports under streaks of 12-4 overall in lined games and 4-1 in Pac-10 play. Also, the last two series meetings have stayed low after the previous five had flown over the total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA STATE and UNDER


Cal (1-0 SU and ATS) at Washington State (0-1 SU and ATS)

Cal will try to build on last week’s hard-fought win over Michigan State when it opens Pac-10 play against Washington State.

The Bears got caught up in a back-and-forth shootout with the Spartans last Saturday, but they got two touchdowns a little more than a minute apart in the fourth quarter and prevailed 38-31 as a five-point home favorite. Cal, which snapped an 0-7 ATS regular-season losing skid with the win and cover, rolled up 467 total yards and outrushed Michigan State, 226-81.

Washington State struggled in coach Paul Wulff’s debut, producing just 202 total yards in a 39-13 loss to Oklahoma State as a seven-point underdog on a neutral field in Seattle. The Cougars have alternated wins and losses in their last seven games, but they’re just 3-6 SU in their last nine efforts, giving up an average of 42 points per game in the last three.

Cal has won three straight meetings against Washington State, including last year’s narrow 20-17 home victory. However, the Cougars cashed easily as a 15½-point ‘dog in that one, and they’re 6-2 ATS in the last eight head-to-head clashes since 1997. Also, the visitor has covered in four straight in this rivalry going back to 2002.

Although they’ve followed up an 0-7 ATS slide with back-to-back spread-covers (including last year’s bowl game), the Bears are just 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 road games (0-4 ATS last four), including 0-4 ATS as a road favorite last year. Additionally, they’re 2-12 ATS in their last 14 Pac-10 games.

Wazzu is on an 8-3 ATS roll as a home ‘dog and a 4-1 ATS spurt in Pac-10 play.

The under is 5-2-1 in Washington State’s last seven overall, 5-1 in its last six against winning teams, 8-1-1 in Cal’s last 10 road games and 5-1 in Cal’s last six league affairs.

ATS ADVANTAGE: WASHINGTON STATE and UNDER

[timbob]

Re: 9-6-08

Jeff Benton

50 DIME: UTAH
15 DIME: FLORIDA
10 DIME: BUFFALO


Utah

Under most circumstances, I would be going AGAINST Utah this week, as this would ordinarily be a prime letdown for the Utes after last Saturday’s big win over Michigan in the Big House. Not the case this week, not with UNLV coming to Salt Lake City. Why? Because last year Utah suffered its worst beatdown of the season – it’s worst in probably a decade – in Las Vegas, when the pathetic Rebels (who only won two games all year) shocked the Utes 27-0 as a seven-point home underdog.

As if the indignity of committing four turnovers and getting shutout for the first time since 1993 – by one of the worst programs in Division I-A – wasn’t bad enough, Utah’s manhood was challenged by UNLV coach Mike Sanford in the days after the game. Sanford, who was Utah’s offensive coordinator before taking over the Rebels, said to local media in Las Vegas that when he reviewed the game tape, “there’s no doubt in my mind” that the Utes were afraid to tackle UNLV’s 240-pound running back Frank “The Tank” Summers, who rushed for 190 yards on 29 carries in the victory. And Summers dittoed those comments.

Not surprisingly, Sanford has spent a good portion of this week claiming his comments were taken out of context. True or not, you know that Utes coach Kyle Whittingham – who was Utah’s D-coordinator when Sanford was the O-coordinator – has reminded his players of Sanford’s slight. Not that the players need much motivation after being on the receiving end of a 27-0 bitch-slap. And yes, most of the key players on this year’s Utes team were involved in that massacre – and Summers is back, too.

Now, I know this is a huge impost to lay, but believe me, in addition to motivation, Utah’s got the means to cover the number. As mentioned, they have a ton of talent back, and the defense played out of its mind at Michigan last week, holding the Wolverines to 203 total yards, including 36 rushing yards on 25 carries. And although Utah’s running game looked stuck in the mud, QB Brian Johnson was terrific (21 of 33, 305 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT). Besides, Michigan’s defense is miles better – bigger, stronger, faster – than UNLV’s, so expect much better results from the running game.

Finally, just look at where these programs are right now. After last week’s completely uninspiring 27-17 home win over god-awful Utah State as a 12½-point favorite, UNLV is now 7-29 in three-plus seasons under Sanford. In between last year’s upset of Utah and last week’s win over Utah State, UNLV lost eight straight games, going 2-6 ATS. In fact, after last week’s non-cover vs. Utah State, the Rebels enter this one on a five-game ATS slide, going 0-3 ATS as a double-digit ‘dog in the process. Meanwhile, Utah cracked the Top 25 this week and the team is 14-5 SU and 13-6 ATS since the middle of the 2006 season – a streak that started with a 45-23 home rout of UNLV in October 2006 – including 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS since losing to UNLV last year.

Furthermore, the Utes are 6-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite during this 19-game stretch and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 at home, while the Rebels are mired in a 3-14 ATS slump on the road. Also, prior to last year’s loss to the Rebels, Utah had won 11 straight games in this rivalry dating to 1979, including the last two at home by a combined score of 108-51! And trust me, in none of those 11 wins were the Utes as motivated to kick some ass as they’re going to be tonight!

Lay the lumber, folks … this one’s gonna get UGLY!


Florida

First off, you saw how the SEC bitch-slapped the ACC last week, right? Alabama – a middle-of-the-road SEC team – clobbered Clemson, which entered the season as the favorite to win the ACC. And that was after South Carolina blanked North Carolina State 34-0. Those weren’t the only ACC schools to get punked in Week 1, either. Virginia (playing at home!) lost 52-7 to USC, while Virginia Tech fell to Conference USA’s East Carolina 27-22 as a double-digit favorite. Even Maryland struggled to beat I-AA Delaware at home, prevailing only 14-7.

Well, the ACC better get ready for another beatdown, as Miami doesn’t stand a chance of competing with against fifth-ranked Florida, which went through the motions against Hawaii last week … and still won 56-10 as a 34½-point chalk. And when I say “went through the motions,” QB Tim Tebow had just 174 total yards and one touchdown (passing) … and the Gators still rolled by six touchdowns!

Now, I’m sure Miami has more talent on its roster than Hawaii. But the Hurricanes also have a redshirt freshman at quarterback who has just one game under his belt (last week’s rout of Charleston Southern). Nothing like playing your first collegiate road game in the swamp … especially with only two returning offensive linemen in front of him … and especially when facing one of the top defenses in the land!

Bottom line: The last time Miami went on the road to face a top-tier team, it was exactly a year ago … and the Canes got spanked 51-13 at Oklahoma. And Oklahoma wasn’t an in-state rival like Florida, which just happens to be looking to snap a six-game losing skid to Miami that dates to 1986! Think the Gators don’t want to end that drought by making a big statement today and claiming state supremacy? Just ask Florida State, which lost 41-14 to Tebow and Florida last season. Finally consider this: Miami is 12-24 ATS in its last 36 games, including 5-10 ATS on the road, and the Hurricanes have failed to cover in their last five non-conference road games. Meanwhile, Florida is now 7-1 ATS as a home chalk since the start of last season. LOVE the Gators tonight!


Buffalo

So let me get this straight: Pittsburgh went off as a two-touchdown home favorite last week against Bowling Green, jumped out to a quick two-touchdown lead, and lost outright 27-17, committing four turnovers in the process … and now the Panthers are laying double digits again? Against another Mid-American Conference opponent, one that’s improving and completely under-the-radar? One that throttled UTEP 42-17 as a three-point home favorite last week?

Uh, I don’t get it. Of course, I didn’t get all the preseason hype surrounding Pitt to begin with. Yeah, they stunned West Virginia in the annual Backyard Brawl season finale last year. But that’s a HUGE rivalry game. Also, all the pressure was on West Virginia in that game, as the Mountaineers needed a win to get a berth in the BCS Championship Game. So instead of focusing on one upset victory, let’s instead focus on the fact that Pitt is 16-20 since Dave Wannstedt took over as coach without a single winning season in three years!

As for Buffalo, this team is on the come, going from 2-10 in 2006 to 5-7 last year. And the Bulls look particularly improved on defense; after yielding 28 points and more than 400 yards per game last year, they came out of the gate and limited UTEP to just 266 yards (67 rushing) and 16 first downs. Also, QB Drew Willy, who threw four TD passes last week, has thrown 251 passes without an interception (the longest such steak in the country). Throw in the fact that Buffalo is on a 21-12-1 ATS roll, including 9-5 ATS as a ‘dog since 2006, while the Panthers are 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games, including 1-7 ATS as a favorite, and I’ll gladly take the points here.
__________________

[timbob]

Re: 9-6-08

Docs Enterprises

(5*)Temple
(4*)Wake Forest
(4*)Penn State
(4*)Tulsa
(4*)East Carolina
(3*)Syracuse