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Kevin Dolan (WagerTalk) 5% top play: Despite an inconsistent run of late for the Timberwolves, going just 3-3 over their last six games and 5-5 ATS over their last ten, we like the matchup for Minnesota here on Tuesday against a resurgent CJ McCollum led Portland team. The last time these two teams faced off against each other last month, Minnesota was in their second-worst losing run of the season, dropping five straight, but eased out a comfortable 5 point victory over Portland in that game as +3 road underdogs. That win came in spite of Minnesota having a lower shooting percentage than Portland in that game, having 12 fewer points from three-pointers, fewer rebounds, fewer assists, and so on as the Timberwolves continually hounded Portland from outside the perimeter, giving them few clean looks and making it as difficult as possible for the Trail Blazers to get going offensively in that game. With Minnesota averaging the league's 7th best perimeter three-point shooting defense this season, we like that trend to continue here on Tuesday as the Timberwolves likely force this Portland team into tough shots yet again from the outside. Portland rank #1 in the league from three-point range over their three most recent games, but they haven't faced anywhere near the level of perimeter defense over that stretch as they'll face here tonight against Minnesota, with Toronto, Boston, and Miami ranking an aggregate 19th in the league compared with Minnesota's 7th. With Portland being overly reliant on the three this season (the Blazers rank 2nd last in the league in total points inside the paint this year), that should pose a problematic matchup for this Portland team once again tonight. The last point in regards to this game is that books catch up quickly. Portland return home off a fantastic 4-2 road trip after winning and covering both of their previous two matchups on the road by a combined 29 points, as they entered both games as heavy +8 underdogs to Boston and Toronto respectively. That won't last, and while they're flying high right now, we're getting value on the better team here as a result and we expect the Minnesota Timberwolves to take care of business tonight with a big win and cover on the road against the Portland Trail Blazers. PLAY: MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES -3 *Line good to -5, -5.5 > (4%)
Vernon Croy
7-Unit Play - #525-526 Minnesota/Portland GAME TOTAL OVER 233 -110 (Tuesday, January 25, 2022, 10:00 PM)
Take Minnesota/Portland GAME TOTAL OVER as my top NBA pick for Tuesday night. This pick falls into one my top NBA systems and I expect a very high-scoring game here given the way these 2 teams match up against each other. These 2 teams put up 227 total points when they met back on December 12 and 3 of the last 4 games played between these 2 teams have gone over the posted total with 227 points, 246 points, and 252 points in those overs. The over/under is 6-0 in Minnesota's last 6 road games when favored and Minnesota has averaged 119.4 points per game over their last 5 games with opponents averaging 116.8 points per game against them. Divisional opponents have averaged 121.5 points per game against Portland this season shooting 52.3% against them and Portland has also averaged 111.8 points per game at home this season shooting 38.1% from beyond the arc. Portland's opponents have also shot 37.1% against them from beyond the arc this season and you can expect Minnesota to put up a big number here tonight. Play the OVER
Robert Ferringo
2-Unit Play. Take #603 Richmond (-1) over Rhode Island (6:30 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 25)
Richmond is starting to play much better basketball and they have now won 9 of 12 overall. Rhode Island has been up and down all season long. The massive line move in this game is a bit of a red flag. That, along with the face that URI hasn't beaten a Top 140 team yet this season is enough for me to go with the Spiders.
3-Unit Play. Take #618 Rutgers (-3.5) over Maryland (8 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 25)
Rutgers is just a much different team when they play at home compared to who they are on the road. The Scarlet Knights already went on the road and beat the Terps, 70-59, just 10 days ago. It's going to be even tougher for Maryland here in Piscataway. Maryland is coming off a shocking blowout win at home over Illinois in which they closed the game on a 25-9 run. I think that was a fluke and I don't expect that to happen here.
3-Unit Play. Take #620 Illinois (-4.5) over Michigan State (7 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 25)
I'll take the home team. Michigan State has played by far the weakest conference schedule in the Big Ten. They are in a letdown spot after their hot shooting win at Wisconsin. Illinois has been very, very close to getting that marquee home win, losing close games to Arizona and Purdue. I think the third time is the charm and they will get a Top 10 scalp here.
1-Unit Play. Take #628 Duke (-11.5) over Clemson (7 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 25)
The Blue Devils have won their four (of five) ACC home games by 11, 12, 15 and 20 points. Clemson has been terrible on the road, getting blown out at Syracuse and at Notre Dame. The Blue Devils are capable of turning out the lights in Cameron Indoor. I think they runaway in the second half here.
2-Unit Play. Take #640 Baylor (-13.5) over Kansas State (8 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 25)
Kansas State is in a killer letdown spot here. They let one slip through their fingers on Saturday against archrival Kansas, blowing a big lead and losing a heartbreaker. I don't see how this team picks itself up off the mat. Baylor is not screwing around. They lost two game in a row two weeks ago - both at home. They have responded with convincing road wins over WVU and OU. Now that they are back home they are not going to hold back.
4-Unit Play. Take #643 Southern Illinois (+12.5) over Loyola-Chicago (8 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 25)
I really like this Loyola-Chicago team and they are in a bounce back spot here after a 10-point home loss to Missouri State. However, this team is really missing Cam Krutwig and they just don't have the same juice that they have in recent seasons. They have won a lot of games this year but they don't have many blowouts. Southern Illinois has been a massive underachiever in my mind this year. They have lost four of five overall, but three of those have come by five points or less (including at Missouri State) and two were by just one point. I have a hard time seeing a blowout here.
3-Unit Play. Take #646 North Dakota State (-8.5) over St. Thomas (8 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 25)
This is St. Thomas' first year in D-I. They are taking their knocks and have lost three straight home games by double-digit. Now they are going to get a taste of NDSU. These two teams play similar paced styles. NDSU just plays it much better.
2-Unit Play. Take #652 New Mexico (+5) over Fresno State (9 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 25)
1-Unit Play. Take #654 Boise State (-5) over Wyoming (9 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 25)
1-Unit Play. Take #660 Colorado State (-8.5) over Nevada (9 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 25)
It's been a while since Colorado State has just pasted someone on their home gym. This team has the most talent and one of the best home court advantages in the Mountain West. I think it will be on display here against a Nevada team that has been shaky all season long. This team hasn't played many road games and hasn't played well on the road. I think they struggle again here.
2-Unit Play. Take #666 Oregon (-8) over Colorado (10 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 25)
I started driving the bandwagon for Oregon a couple weeks ago. Let's go to the well until the well is dry. Colorado is coming off back-to-back home losses last weekend. It won't get any easier for this team on the road.
1-Unit Play. 5-POINT TEASER: Take #646 North Dakota State (-3.5) over St. Thomas (8 p.m.) AND Take #640 Baylor (-18.5) over Kansas State (8 p.m.)
3-Unit Play. 5-POINT TEASER: Take #660 Colorado State (-3.5) over Nevada (9 p.m.) AND Take #666 Oregon (-3) over Colorado (10 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 25)
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