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8-Unit Play. Take #922 Kansas (-5.5) over Kentucky (6 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 29) 286-15. That's Kansas' record at home since 2003. They have lost 15 home games in 19 years. Maybe Kentucky beats them tonight. Maybe they cover. If they do, it is what it is. But I am putting my money behind a team that has only lost at home 15 times in almost 20 years. And I'm OK with that, whatever the outcome. Forgetting the historical context for a minute, I just think that this Kansas team is better than Kentucky. I think Kentucky is a paper tiger. This team went 9-16 last year. John Calipari decided that he couldn't take a chance of another mediocre season. So instead of rolling the dice and going after top tier freshmen he changed pace and brought in a bunch of veteran transfers: Oscar Tshiebwe, Sahvir Wheeler, and Kellan Grady. Those guys are good. But they aren't top-end talents. Beyond that, Coach Cal stacked his schedule with a bunch of losers. The Wildcats had exactly two nonconference wins over Top 125 teams: Ohio (LOL) and North Carolina (the team that lost to Miami and Wake by 20+ just last week). That's it. That's who Kentucky has beaten. The Wildcats have played just seven games outside of Lexington this year. They have lost four of those games. They haven't proven that they are good enough or mentally tough enough to roll into a place like Phog Allen and leave with a W. The Big 12 is better than the SEC this year. It is. And Kansas has gone up against a bunch of teams that are better than Kentucky this year and come away with wins. They are coming off a double-OT home win over Texas Tech, so the Jayhawks' radar is already up. Kansas has gone 13-1 in its last 14 games, with eight of the wins coming against Top 100 opponents. Kentucky hasn't even played 10 Top 100 opponents this year. Tshiebwe is the key for Kentucky. But Kansas has three guys 6-9 or taller (David McCormack, Jalen Wilson and Mitch Lightfoot) that can bang with him on the inside. And if Tshiebwe can't matchup with these guys - Lightfoot can draw him away from the basket - or if he gets in foul trouble trying to swat the flies then Kentucky is going to get buried. Kentucky's guards are solid. But for me the matchup is Grady against Remy Martin. Martin has the potential to be the best player on the court?.and he's Kansas' third option. Throw in a guy like Jalen Coleman-Lands - who is almost 26 years old and has played huge in big games like this before - and Kansas just has too many answers. Finally, this spread should be 3.5. The fact that is opened at 5.0 and has been bet up tells me that a lot of smart people see the same thing I do. The majority of the action in this game is on Kentucky; but that makes me like it even more. I think that this game is going to be really close for a half. I can see Kentucky within a bucket, or even taking a lead into halftime. But in the second half Kansas is going to do Kansas things, the crowd is going to go apeshit, and this one is going to end up as a double-digit win for the home side. Rock. Chalk. Jayhawk.
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