Sunday 2/13/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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BETTING ODDS TRENDS

Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing Nebraska
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Iowa's last 6 games when playing Nebraska
Iowa is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Nebraska
Iowa is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Nebraska
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Iowa's last 6 games when playing at home against Nebraska

Nebraska Cornhuskers
Nebraska is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Nebraska is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nebraska's last 5 games on the road
Nebraska is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing Iowa
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Nebraska's last 6 games when playing Iowa
Nebraska is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Iowa
Nebraska is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Iowa
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Nebraska's last 6 games when playing on the road against Iowa

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BETTING ODDS TRENDS

Boise State Broncos
Boise State is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Colorado State
Boise State is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Colorado State
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boise State's last 7 games when playing Colorado State
Boise State is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Colorado State

Colorado State Rams
Colorado State is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Colorado State is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado State's last 7 games on the road
Colorado State is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Boise State
Colorado State is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Boise State
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Colorado State's last 7 games when playing Boise State
Colorado State is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Boise State

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Oaklawn Picks: Tango Charlie calls in on February 13
By J.N. Campbell


Oaklawn Park Picks - Sunday, February 13, 2022

Race 1: 6-1-3-8
Race 2: 12-7-1-2
Race 3: 8-7-1-5
Race 4: 3-7-4-6
Race 5: 12-6-5-10
Race 6: 2-4-3-9
Race 7: 12-5-4-8
Race 8: 2-7-8-3
Race 9: 3-1-10-8
**Most Likely Winner: Ucantmakethisstuffup #3 (Race 9)**
**Best Value: Tango Charlie #2 (Race 6)**

Most Likely Winner: (Race 9: Ucantmakethisstuffup #3, 3/1):

Arkansas bred runners do not get the respect that they deserve, but they are just as good as any. In today’s Sunday finale I am plussed to back a Scotty Caroom-owned gelding by Texas Chrome. That sire was excellent for Keene Thoroughbreds, and now is starting to produce some quality progeny. Trainer Federico Villafranco had this gelding charged up last time on debut at Oaklawn. We would expect him to be ready to break his maiden now after that game effort against Oneeighthundredcash. This is a full field, but Cristian Torres should be able to work out another trip.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #3



Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 6: Tango Charlie #2, 6/1):

I had a nice winner from the Randy Morse Barn on Friday, and I am going to that outfit again in this spot. Doyle Williams owns this gelding by Hard Spun, and I think the 4-yr-old has a chance to get back to the Larry Snyder Winner’s Circle. Running at this exact level last time, John Hiraldo lost steam aboard his mount, watching AC Expressway go rolling by. Morse is an equine spotting scientist, and he knows how to recalibrate. This one turned in a nice work back on 9 Feb., but the best news is that Florent Geroux gets aboard. He is a hot rider right now, and I like his mount’s chances,

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #2 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)



Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 8: Dirt, 1 1/16th, OC50kn2x, F&M 4+):

Here is an OC50k for older females that should be a magnificent betting race, if you are willing to take on the presumptive favorite Willful Woman #7. Steve Asmussen’s filly by Nyquist is well-bred, and the Liebong’s have clearly made a fine investment. What is concerning here is that their charge really missed last time out. If you are willing to excuse that lack of effort, then you should bet her … at 5/2 though? Not too interested, even with Joel Rosario in the irons. Instead, I am keen to back Rick Hiles and his mare by super sire Into Mischief. He is a conditioner with a pair of wins already in Hot Springs, and he only has 7 total starts! Break Curfew #2 has the class to take on this group; after all, she should be quite comfortable with OC50k-types. What makes her a great price is that she will be stretching out to over a mile. Why can’t she do it? I think it is possible (old adage about … if nothing is working, stretch ‘em out!), and Luis Contreras will be aboard once again to guide her. These “Mischiefs” are able to make the move, and possibly some “frontend” tactics are in order. Nothing like a switch-up to really spark a runner. Let’s call this … ice-cold Exacta … The payout should be more than decent!

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Exacta Cold, 2 w 7

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Aqueduct Picks: Broadway S. you're on February 13
By J.N. Campbell


Aqueduct Picks - Sunday, February 13, 2022

Race 1: 5-2-3-6
Race 2: 4-3-2-5
Race 3: 6-2-5-4
Race 4: 1-6-2-7
Race 5: 4-1-3-2
Race 6: 5-2-7-6
Race 7: 2-4-1-6
Race 8: 4-7-2-5
Race 9: 4-8-3-7
**Most Likely Winner: Makingcents #6 (Race 3)**
**Best Value: Enter Sandwoman #2 (Race 7)**

Most Likely Winner: (Race 3: Makingcents #6, 5/2):

Here is a likely winner that will be getting a much-needed break when it comes to class. This mare by Goldencents has already been up against it in a couple of tough ALLW/OC Co. races at “The Big A.” Jeremiah Englehart has seen the light, and now is sending her into a much more comfortable setting. Jorge Vargas gets the call once again, and that should be enough to get her back to the winner’s circle … She was sure good back at The SPA …

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #6



Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 7: Enter Sandwoman #2, 6/1):

Here is a filly by Sky Mesa that has some potential in what will be her 2nd start for her new barn. The Jerkens Stable took her on after she ran throughout the Upper South and Ohio. Now, Trevor McCarthy gets the chance to try state bred company again. The 1st start saw her missing the board, but the good news was that she made some improvement down the lane. I think she could be a great price play when it comes to searching for value.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #2 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)



Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 8: Dirt, 6F, Broadway S., $100k, F&M 4+):

The focal point of the Sunday card is this “BT” for older females that hail from NY. The well-known Danny Gargan racer, a filly by Laoban is present once again to put her record to the test. In 5 career races, Breakfastatbonnies #7 has acquitted herself well. Never missing being in the money is an impressive feat, but even with Jose Lezcano aboard, it might be a big step-up in class from what she is used to. There is no question about her level of talent, but I am inclined to look at a couple of other entries, which tickle my fancy. One of those runners is the Falcone Barn’s Kept Waiting #2. The 5-yr-old mare is hardly doing that, since she is right back at it after running on nicely just 6 days ago. Falcone must think something is ready to happen, because he would not make this call without cause. Manny Franco gets the call, and I am sure there are some bettors that will be skeptical. I am not one of them … One other sprinter that is getting down to business is Rob Atras’ Sadie Lady #4. This mare by Freud got back to the oval in Ozone in December, and it was not a half-baked effort in the Garland of Roses S. She gave way in the end, but clearly the layoff since running at Belmont in the late spring/summer was the main issue. I would think that Atras has her cranked up for this spot, and I am seriously considering putting her at the top of my picks list. She is a gamer, with Kendrick Carmouche at the controls. These 3 runners … they will suit.

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Trifecta Box, 2/4/7

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Fair Grounds Race Course Selections for February 13, 2022 – Horse Racing Picks

By Kyle E in Horse Racing — Feb 12th, 2022 4:24pm PST

Fair Grounds Race Course Selections for February 13, 2022 – Horse Racing Picks

Football isn’t the only action on Super Bowl Sunday. If you don’t like betting football or don’t care for a betting angle on the Super Bowl matchup, there are other options available on the betting docket. Horse racing doesn’t stop for the Super Bowl.

Industry Leading 9% Cashback!

There is also a small NBA and NHL card available for Super Sunday. If you’re more of a college basketball bettor, there is no shortage of action in the afternoon on the hardwood. There are a few ranked teams in action, with the Purdue Boilermakers and Illinois Fighting Illini the highest-ranked teams playing on Sunday.

Meanwhile, the biggest horse racing on Sunday is the running of the $100,000 Broadway Stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack. BetOnline has at least nine racecourses available for wagering on Super Sunday. Our first stop is at Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans.

Fair Grounds has nine races, five on the dirt and four on the turf, with $328,000 in prize money. Head below for our best Fair Grounds Race Course picks on February 13, 2022.
Taking Your Horse Race Betting to the Next Level
Race 2
(1) Blue Ridge Heat
+1000 (10/1)
(2) Point of Victory
+200 (2/1)
(3) Rockin Sunday
+450 (9/2)
(4) She’s a Fair Catch
+1000 (10/1)
(5) My Rebel Girl
+1200 (12/1)
(6) Shesthecatsmeow
+600 (6/1)
(7) Spectacular Izzy
+800 (8/1)
(8) Sarah Adriana
+400 (4/1)
(9) Bodie on Pointe
+2000 (20/1)

Post Time: 1:35 p.m. CST
Distance:5 ½ Furlongs
Purse:$18,000

Race 2 is a mile race on the dirt for an $18,000 purse covering 5 ½ furlongs. Sarah Adriana and Point of Victory should be top contenders to win this event.

Sarah Adriana is 2 for 11 in her career and finished 1st, 6th, 3rd in her last three outings. Three races back, Sarah Adriana beat Kleinmeister by 2 ¼ lengths for a $13,000 purse.

After that comfortable win, Sarah Adriana finished 6th on December 21 in a $26,000 event. The class hike didn’t help in that one. She showed 3rd on January 8 in a $13,000 purse back down in class.

Point of Victory is a two-time winner in 12 outings, finishing 4th, 3rd, 2nd in her last three attempts. In her most recent race, Point of Victory placed 2nd behind Commercial Flash by 2 lengths for an $18,000 prize.

On New Year’s Day, Point of Victory showed 3rd in a $16,000 race, so improvement has been noted. Against a weak field in Race 2, the No. 2 looks like the best.
The Bet
(2) POINT OF VICTORY
+200
Place Bet Now!
Race 4
(1) Perfect Cut
+400 (4/1)
(2) Hombrazo
+250 (5/2)
(3) Gimme Some Mo
+800 (8/1)
(4) Criminal Defense
+400 (4/1)
(5) Carmel Crush
+200 (2/1)
(6) Outlier
+1000 (10/1)

Post Time: 2:35 p.m. CST
Distance: 1 Mile
Purse:$28,000

Race 4 covers a mile on the dirt for a $28,000 purse. Hombrazo and Carmel Crush should be in contention for the top prize in this one.

Hombrazo is 4 for 21 and a consistent operator since September. He has finished 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 3rd, 2nd in his previous five races.

In his latest attempt, Hombrazo placed 2nd behind Scarlet Fusion by 1 length for a $46,000 prize. That was a good run after showing 3rd on December 21 in a $46,000 purse.

Hombrazo was a 2 ¾ length winner on November 26 in a $52,000 assignment. Expect Hombrazo to have a big chance to go in.

Carmel Crush has finished 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 5th, 1st in his previous six outings. In his latest showing, Carmel Crush beat confidently by 8 ½ lengths in a $40,000 blowout.

That was too easy for Carmel Crush after struggling at Churchill Downs. Carmel Crush was 5th on November 24 for a $120,000 prize. Too tough, but he has been in the top-3 in all of his other races.

I’m expecting a good one between Hombrazo and Carmel Crush, with the No. 5 having enough if he runs as he did in that 8 ½ length blowout.
The Bet
(5) CARMEL CRUSH
+200
Place Bet Now!
Race 6
(1) Faith Runner
+1200 (12/1)
(2) Fenwick
+450 (9/2)
(3) Global Empire
+500 (5/1)
(4) Rising Empire
+180 (9/5)
(5) Ardanwood
+800 (8/1)
(6) Tiwanaku
+300 (3/1)
(7) Tonal Impact
+800 (8/1)

Post Time: 3:35 p.m. PST
Distance:1 1/16 Miles
Purse:$52,000

Race 6 is a $52,000 event covering 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. I’d circle Tiwanaku and Rising Empire on the shortlist.

Tiwanaku is 2nd, 2nd, 4th in his career and looked good through his first two races. As a rookie on October 18, 2022, Tiwanaku placed 2nd behind Inspector Frost by 2 lengths for a $70,000 purse.

He came back on December 19, 2020 to place 2nd behind Regular Guy for a half-length in a $50,000 event. In his next and most recent start, Regular Guy finished 4th for $60,000.

Rising Empire has finished 4th, 3rd, 5th in three races. The colt most recently went 5th on June 3 in a $100,000 event. He showed 3rd on April 10 at Oaklawn Park for his best finish, this a $93,000 assignment.

Down to the $52,000 level, look for Rishing Empire to have a big chance at going in at the wire.
The Bet
(4) RISING EMPIRE
+180

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Rocket Picks ��: Gulfstream Park, Oaklawn Park, and Santa Anita for February 13, 2022
By: Aaron Halterman

It’s Super Bowl Sunday, which is always a great day, and we’ve got great racing as well! For the free pick 4, we will head to Gulfstream Park for the late sequence on the card! We will also have full card selections for Oaklawn Park and Santa Anita for the paid Rockets, so be sure to check those out. Let’s see if we can get this home today.

Below is our free Late Pick 4 for Gulfstream Park:

Gulfstream Park February 13, 2022

Race 8: Claiming

#2 Laras Lady runs first off the claim today for a strong barn after running second at this level last time out. #1 Pearlintherough also runs first off the claim in this spot, and gets Saez aboard, after a solid third place effort at this level last time out.

Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming
freestar

#4 Megayacht was an impressive winner last time out, and is in a logical spot to make it two in a row today. #2 Modus Operandi gets Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard in this spot, which is a good sign, and the horse returns off of a layoff today.

Race 10: Starter Allowance

#4 Flying Black has been solid since moving over to this surface, winning two of three starts. She will be tough again today in this spot. #1 Odramark also has been very strong since moving over to this surface, including a gate to wire victory last time out.

Race 11: Maiden Special Weight

#3 Brisky Frolic seems to be improving with each start, with today looking like the day she picks up her first victory. #4 Pimenova was fourth last time out, with this being her second start off the layoff, which should lead to improvement.

THE TICKET
freestar

$.50 Pick 4 (Races 8-11) 1,2,3,4,7 / 2,4 / 1,4 / 3,4,5,8 – $40

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Hobart betting tips & quaddie picks | Sunday, February 13
James Herber

What Hobart Cup Day 2022
Where Elwick Racecourse – 6 Goodwood Rd, Glenorchy TAS 7010
When Sunday, February 13, 2022
Feature Race Race 9: Group 3 Hobart Cup (2400m)
First Race 12pm AEDT
Watch Live
Sky Racing Watch Live
Sportsbet

Streaming Live at Sportsbet

It is Hobart Cup Day on Sunday afternoon at Elwick Racecourse and HorseBetting’s Tasmanian tipping expert has picked out his best bets for the bumper 10-race card, including tips in the feature race and the Listed Thomas Lyons Stakes. The track is rated a Soft 5, the rail is out 6m for the entire circuit, and racing is set to commence at 12pm AEDT.
Hobart Cup Best Bet tip – White Hawk

The Group 3 Hobart Cup over 2400m is one of the biggest races in Tasmania each year and we expect the Angela Brakey-trained White Hawk to walk away with Cup glory. The eight-year-old Tough Speed gelding has won three of his past four, including a 3.25 length victory in the Summer Cup over 2200m. He was running away from his rivals on that day and comes up against a similar field again on Sunday. Having made his move 800m out from home, White Hawk joined the lead on the home turn and was quick to put the field away with an ever-widening margin. If he is to claim the Hobart Cup, we expect Mehmet Ulucinar will need to do something similar on Sunday. He has a sharp turn of foot for a stayer and with $7.50 on offer from Sportsbet, we think we have found one at a nice price in the feature event of the day.
Hobart Cup
Race 9 – White Hawk (#5)
$7.50 with Sportsbet
Thomas Lyons Stakes Best Bet – Deroche

The Listed Thomas Lyons Stakes over 1400m is one of the feature events on Sunday and we will be hoping the Barry Campell-trained Deroche can get back to her winning ways. Since taking out the Listed Newmarket Handicap at Launceston on December 1, the Needs Further mare has seemingly struggled in her past two starts. However, in a field where she is set to gain an uncontested lead on ground with the sting out of it, she looks the one to be with here. Despite just having one win from six starts at Hobart, Deroche certainly has above average ability with 13 wins from 23 starts. With Codi Jordan on board, we expect the young apprentice to have her rolling out in front and the five-year-old mare should prove too hard to run down. We have seen Deroche as long as $11 with Australian horse betting sites.
Thomas Lyons Stakes
Race 7 – Deroche (#13)
$11 with Ladbrokes
Hobart’s Best Bet Of The Day – Four Letter Word

The Gary White-trained Four Letter Word clearly has plenty of potential having narrowly missed in her past two starts. The three-year-old filly continually settles at the rear of the field and flies home but keeps leaving herself with too much to do inside the final 400m. In the small field of nine, she should not be too far from the speed throughout and with the likes of Heather’s Memory and Finxy to provide a fast tempo over 1400m, the race should be set up for Four Letter Word. Her turn of foot is top tier, and we expect Sunday to be the day that the Swear filly breaks her maiden tag.
Best Bet
Race 3 – Four Letter Word (#8)
Best odds with Sportsbet
Hobart Cup Day quaddie tips
Hobart quadrella selections
Leg 1: 2-3-13
Leg 2: 5-8
Leg 3: 1-2-4-5
Leg 4: 1-2-3-4-10
Investment: $120 for 100%

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Nowra racing tips, top odds & quaddie | Sunday, February 13
Nicholas Lloyd

What Nowra Races
Where Shoalhaven City Turf Club – 96 Albatross Road, South Nowra NSW 2541
When Sunday, February 13, 2021
First Race 12:55pm AEDT
Watch Live
Sky Racing Watch Live
Sportsbet

Streaming Live at Sportsbet

Nowra will host the second heat of the Country Championships series on Sunday afternoon, where the first two horses past the post will book their ticket to the final at Randwick on Day 1 of The Championships. HorseBetting’s New South Wales form analyst brings you his best bets and quaddie numbers for the day, as well as his top pick in the Country Championships Qualifier. The track is rated a Soft 6, the rail is set true, and the first race is set to jump at 12:55pm AEDT.
Country Championships Qualifier – Arnaqueur

There’s no prizes for finding the favourite, but this is quite an open race, so there are still some good each-way odds on offer. Jean Dubois saddles up his talented three-year-old Arnaqueur, who returns as a gelding after a somewhat disappointing spring. The son of Astern boasts an impeccable first-up record of two starts for two wins and comes into this race fresh off just the one trial. The Goulburn-based galloper won stylishly on debut over 1300m as a two-year-old, before resuming on August 1 over 1400m in a Class 1 where he came from last to win in the final bound. During the spring he contested some quality three-year-old races, running fourth on two occasions. On August 28 he ran behind Coastwatch in the Group 3 Ming Dynasty Stakes, before running an unlucky fourth behind Giannis and Tiger Of Malay, which is very good form. He does go up a couple of grades to Class 5 company, but that Group and Listed form suggests he is good enough, despite having only won the two races. Tommy Berry will do the riding on Sunday, which is a big plus, while barrier nine should see Arnaqueur settle midfield and look to finish off strongly over the top.
Country Championship Qualifier
Race 7 – Arnaqueur (#7)
$4.80 with Sportsbet
Best Bet at Nowra – Allusionist

Richard & Michael Freedman saddle up Allusionist on Sunday in what will be the gelding’s ninth career start. The three-year-old is yet to win a race, but he has placed on four occasions, running behind the likes of Honeycreeper, Glittery and Release The Beans. Two starts ago, this son of Super One contested the Magic Millions Maiden on the Gold Coast, where he finished 10th of 14, just 2.8 lengths away from Warmth and Devil’s Throat. He failed to make an impact in his most recent start at Canterbury on January 28 over 1250m, so he should appreciate getting to country grade for this first time in his career. All of this galloper’s trials have been good, so he clearly has some ability; he just needs to put it all together on race day. He has drawn to get a favourable run from barrier two, while apprentice jockey Qin Yong will take 1.5kg off the three-year-old’s back, meaning he will carry 60.5kg, which brings him right into this race. He’s good enough for this field.
Best Bet
Race 3 – Allusionist (#1)
$4.20 with Sportsbet
Next Best Bet – Fangela

In the opening race of the day, Keith Dryden and Alysha Collett combine with the consistent Fangela. The four-year-old grey has raced five times for two wins and two placings, and he comes off a 1.45-length second at Randwick on January 22 in a Class 2 Highway over 1100m. The son of The Factor was first-up for over six months on that occasion without a public barrier trial, so he would have no doubt needed the run, which told late as he just peaked. Now second-up with race fitness under his belt, we expect this gelding to be very hard to beat as he drops back to 1000m and finds himself in a Benchmark 66 with 59kg on his back. From barrier two, Collett will have the galloper in behind the speed before setting out after the leaders in the home straight. He certainly looks the testing material.
Next Best
Race 1 – Fangela (#3)
$2.30 with Sportsbet
Best Value Bet – Call Me Artie

The final race is a deadest lottery according to the market, with joint $8 favourites, another two gallopers who are $9 chances and then four horses all on $12. Although Call Me Artie is one of the favourites at $8, we believe that that is great value for a horse who is racing in good form. The four-year-old son of Artie Schiller hasn’t won for 11 months, but he has been in the placings on three occasions in that time, including a narrow second to Room Number. That horse has since won a Benchmark 78 at Randwick and took out the Bega Cup, so the form looks good enough for this Benchmark 58. Call Me Artie has raced once since then, finishing sixth as favourite at Canberra over 1600m. Trainer Neil Osbourne has opted to keep his gelding at the mile while dropping back in grade, which he should appreciate. There should be plenty of speed in this big field, so we are hoping to see jockey Billy Owen settle around the middle and allow his mount to let down late. He finished second at his only start at this track, and we think he has a great chance to go one better on Sunday.
Best Value
Race 8 – Call Me Artie (#2)
$8 with Sportsbet
Sunday quaddie picks for Nowra
Nowra quadrella selections
Leg 1: 3-5-6
Leg 2: 4-5-6
Leg 3: 2-3-5-9
Leg 4: 2-4-5-6-7-17
Investment: $216 for 100%

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Sale betting tips, value bets & quaddie | Sunday, February 13
James Herbert

What Sale Races
Where Sale Racecourse – 1227 Maffra-Sale Rd, Sale VIC 3850
When Sunday, February 13, 2022
First Race 12:45pm AEDT
Watch Live
Sky Racing Watch Live
Sportsbet

Streaming Live at Sportsbet

Horsebetting’s Victorian racing expert has run his eye through the eight-race card at Sale on Sunday afternoon on a track rated a Good 4, with the rail returning to the true position throughout. With the track back in the Good range, we anticipate it will play fair, despite the recent bias on softer going for on-pace runners. Get all of the Sale best bets and quaddie numbers below for free.
Sale Best Bet – Kentucky Casanova

The Michael Huglin-trained Kentucky Casanova was a gritty on-pace victor at Caulfield on January 12 and looks a clear best bet of the day at Sale on Sunday. The four-year-old bay gelding has three wins and two minor placings from five career starts, with all three wins coming at 1200m which he stays at for this run. Despite drawing the widest barrier in the field of 10, the Artie Schiller gelding looks to gain an uncontested lead if he shows the same barrier manners he produced to begin his career. Brett Prebble hops on board for the first time and under a well-rated ride from the 32-time Group 1 winner, we anticipate Kentucky Casanova will prove too hard to run down.
Best Bet
Race 7 – Kentucky Casanova (#3)
$2.80 with Sportsbet
Sale Value Bet – Maui

The form lines the Phillip Stokes-trained Maui brings to this BM64 event is second to none and we expect it will be the right line to follow in the second leg of the quaddie. The four-year-old gelding has chased home subsequent Group 2 winner Parure and the smart Eagles Crag in his career thus far and is not meeting any horses near the calibre of those two on Sunday. This will be his first start in nearly 12 months, so whatever he does on Sunday, he will only improve on. However, the booking of Brett Prebble signals intent and despite the small field of nine, he shouldn’t be too far from the speed. His turn of foot is more than good enough to take out a race like this.
Best Value
Race 6 – Maui (#2)
$6.50 with Sportsbet
Sunday quaddie tips for Sale
Sale quadrella selections
Leg 1: 1-2-3
Leg 2: 2-4-8
Leg 3: 3-7
Leg 4: 1-3-4-7
Investment: $72 for 100%

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Daily Racing Tips – Sale – February 13th

Home - Expert Tips - Harry White - Daily Racing Tips – Sale – February 13th

Harry White

RSN Expert Form Analyst Harry White has the best Daily Racing Tips for the meeting at Bendigo on Sunday 6th of February for the RSN Punter.

Along with our Daily Racing Tips, you’ll find Greyhound and Harness Tips, plus Interstate Racing Tips, each and every day of the week with RSN927’s Expert Tipsters and race-callers.

Rail Position: True Entire Circuit
Track Type: Turf
Track Condition: Soft 5
Weather: Hot
Penetrometer: 5.72
Harry White Sale Tips

Sale, February 13th 2022

Race 1 Selections: 5,1,4,2
Race 2 Selections: 8,7,5,1
Race 3 Selections: 2,6,5,1
Race 4 Selections: 3,4,7,2
Race 5 Selections: 1,3,6,4
Race 6 Selections: 8,4,1,2
Race 7 Selections: 6,3,5,8
Race 8 Selections: 1,4,8,6
Best Bet

Race 8 – 1. Irish Playboy
Best Value

Race 7 – 6. Alburq
Quaddie

Quaddie 1: 1
Quaddie 2: 1,4,8
Quaddie 3: 2,3,5,6,7,8
Quaddie 4: 1
Play of the Day

All up Race 2 #8 / Race 3 #2

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Daily Harness Tips – Ararat – February 13th

Home - News - Harness News - Daily Harness Tips – Ararat – February 13th

Luke Humphreys

Get the RSN Race-callers best bets and Harness Racing Tips for Ararat Harness on Sunday the 13th of February.
Luke Humphreys Ararat Tips

Ararat, February 13th 2022

Race 1 Selections: 3,7,1,2,6

Race 2 Selections: 7,2,6,8,3

Race 3 Selections: 5,4,1,3,7

Race 4 Selections: 10,5,4,7,11

Race 5 Selections: 8,1,4,6,9

Race 6 Selections: 2,4,7,6,5

Race 7 Selections: 10,11,2,9,8

Race 8 Selections: 1,9,11,10,7

Race 9 Selections: 8,1,10,6,9

Race 10 Selections: 1,3,10,8,7
Best Bet

Race 8 – 1. Highway To Heaven

Race 2 – 7. Im Terrortorial
Best Value

Race 10 No 1 Bettorbewright

Race 9 No 8 Searover
Quaddie

Race 5: 1, 8

Race 6: 2, 4, 7

Race 7: 2, 10, 11
Race 8: 1, 9

$36 gets 100%

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Sunday, February 13
Posted on February 12, 2022 by David Aragona

RACE 1: CLASH A. J. (#6)

Badgerville figures to take money here as he ships up from Florida to make his debut, especially after Pletcher won with a similar runner on Saturday. He’s by 13% debut sire Gormley, and there really hasn’t been much production on the dam’s side. Todd Pletcher is 6 for 28 (21%, $1.81 ROI) with first time starters in maiden claiming dirt sprints at NYRA over the past 5 years. The workouts down in Florida may not look that fast, but he’s held his own with workmates in the mornings. Eddie the Great and Wild Carp Diem could also take some money coming off decent efforts at this level. The former cuts back to 6 furlongs, but I’m not sure that’s really to his benefit since I thought he put forth his best effort going a mile last time. Wild Carp Diem was chasing outside against a rail bias in his last start, but both of his dirt efforts have come over sloppy tracks and I’m a little concerned about whether he can transfer that form to a fast surface. I want the class dropper. Clash A. J. is probably just getting the class relief he needs after going off at big prices against maiden special weight company in all of his prior starts. He put forth his best effort two back when just missing at 63-1 odds. He did get a great trip and pace setup that day as the entire race was falling apart late, but he still ran well against a much better field. It may look like he regressed last time, but he was outside on Jan. 22, a day that featured a strong rail bias. This is much softer spot, and he’s unlikely to go favored due to the low-profile connections.

RACE 2: HOLDTHEFLIGHT (#5)

The two likely favorites in this spot are Charger and Good Culture. I can’t take the former at a short price for a few reasons. Firstly, the Linda Rice barn has been very cold lately at Aqueduct. She’s claimed a lot of horses during the past few months, and this is one of the few horses who has actually won coming into her barn during that time. However, he had to go to Parx to collect that victory, and then last time was fortunate to ride a gold rail at Aqueduct. I think he’s vulnerable at a short price. Good Culture is a little more appealing, since he wasn’t totally with the bias last time on Jan. 16. He was outside for most of his trip before angling down to the rail in the stretch and passing horses late. My biggest issue with him is his general lack of early speed, which usually finds him settling for a minor award. I wanted to think outside the box a little bit, and there are a couple of new faces to consider. One of those is Narmer, but I’m not quite convinced of this Laurel shipper. He put forth his best effort at Penn National two back against a suspect field and was awful last time. I’m more intrigued by Holdtheflight coming in from Parx. This runner’s prior form isn’t exactly that compelling, but he’s a very interesting claim by a sharp trainer. Penny Pearce has a lot of success at Parx, and she’s done well with a few recent starters that she’s shipped to the NYRA circuit. This chestnut gelding is a pretty big horse who has handled multiple surfaces racing in the Midwest. It feels like he has a little more ability than his past performances might suggest, and he’s ambitiously spotted for his first start out of the new barn.

RACE 3: MAKINGCENTS (#6)

Equal Measure comes in off a competitive speed figure, which was earned finishing second at the $32k level last time. She was no match for the impressive winner Customerexperience that day, but it was a good sign that she ran so well in the return to dirt. The problem is that she was riding the gold rail for part of that trip, which may have enhanced her performance. I wanted to see it again. Some may considered Greatest Love, who goes first off the claim for Linda Rice. She was against the track last time when closing for second, but that was a soft field and she’s unproven going this far. I’m more interested in a couple of New York-breds in this field. Choose Happiness never looked totally comfortable over that sloppy track last time, but she had run well in her prior start when overcoming a rail trip on a day when that wasn’t the place to be. She’s a rebound candidate with Trevor McCarthy taking over the reins. Yet my top pick is Makingcents. She clearly hasn’t looked like the same horse after her 3-year-old season. However, I thought she showed some signs of life when dropped in for a tag against NY-breds last time. That Dec. 19 race was a strangely run affair where they set a glacial early pace before sprinting home. Notably, this mare was glued to the rail the entire way on a day when all the best running was done on the outside. That effort may be better than it looks, and she figures to be the controlling speed from the outside this time. It’s the last chance for this once classy runner.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday Seoul & Busan: Race-By-Race Preview (February 13)

Sunday’s racing is at Seoul (11 races from 10:45 to 18:00) and at Busan (6 races from 12:00 to 16:40). All betting locations are open as usual but attendance must be pre-booked through the MyCard app and evidence of vaccination against Covid-19 is required. Here are the previews:

It’s been a long time since Wang Beotkkot won the Nonghyup as a juvenile in 2018 but he has a chance ti win his first class 1 event on Sunday afternoon

Seoul Race 1: Class 6 (1200M) Allowance / KRW 40 Million

Three-year-old maidens with four of the fourteen racing for the first time and a couple of them look promising. Experience will be on top though with the most experienced, with three starts to his name, (5) TES GO DAEBO set to be the logical favourite. They have seen him accrue a 2nd and two 4th placed finishes with that 2nd coming at this distance. He can sit on pace or handy from a good draw and should have too much. (9) USEUNG BARAM ran a very encouraging 2nd on his debut over 1000M on January 15th when running on from midfield. The extra furlong can suit, and he should be competitive. Turning to the first timers, (6) PUREUN NARAE was fastest in trials, leading for much of her heat. An apprentice booking means she carries a light weight. (2) BLACK BEOMI won her trial by plenty and while it wasn’t a fast time, she looked to have lots more in the tank. She draws very nicely and can put in a bold showing first-up. (8) GOLDEN THUNDER went back to trial after an indifferent debut and looked quite sharp. Expect improvement.
Selections (5) Tes Go Daebo (9) Useung Baram (6) Pureun Narae (2) Black Beomi
Next Best 8, 14
Fast Start 2, 5, 6, 8

Seoul Race 2: Class 6 (1200M) Allowance / KRW 25 Million

Maiden fillies and mares. (5) EUNHYE SERVE has shown plenty of promise across three starts to date and stepped up to this distance at her latest outing on January 8th and beat three of today’s rivals on her way to 3rd place when on pace throughout. She draws better this time, should be on pace again and may take some beating. (14) P N S HER ran adequately in the Munhwa Ilbo Cup at just her second start last October. She then put in two ordinary performances before running an improved 4th behind Eunhye Serve a month ago. She draws even wider today but Munro gets on and she can go close. (11) COMPLETE LUCKY was an also-ran in that January race, starting slowly and scarcely getting involved. She had previously shown flashes of speed and with a better start today, can get closer. (6) NEW SMART showed signs of starting to figure things out when running on for 4th at this distance on January 15th and can continue to make progress here. (3) CHEONUNCHONG finished off nicely at 1000M last time and may like the additional furlong.
Selections (5) Eunhye Serve (14) P N S Her (11) Complete Lucky (6) New Smart
Next Best 3, 8
Fast Start 5, 11, 12, 13

Seoul Race 3: Class 6 (1300M) Allowance / KRW 40 Million

Good little maiden this. (7) MORNING PEARL enters in good form with a 2nd and a 3rd from her latest two, most recently coming from well back over 1200M. She only comes up 1kg in the weights, draws fairly and the step up in trip can be to her benefit. (8) NEOREUL EUNGWONHAE has shown some decent speed across her three starts so far with the best being a swift 2nd at 1000M. She beat two of these on her way to 4th place at 1200M at her latest start on Boxing Day when she settled midfield and ran on and looks firmly in this today. (10) THUNDER HORSE comes back in trip after a creditable 3rd place over 1700M on January 8th. That equaled his best finish and having run a good time at this trip in the past, can match it again today. Draw a line through the latest run by (4) ORGALIM when from a wide draw he worked hard to get to position over 1200M before weakening. Instead go on his good 2nd place two starts back. He should be on pace here and will be in this a long way. (11) WILD SOCKS another in the frame.
Selections (7) Morning Pearl (8) Neoreul Eungwonhae (10) Thunder Horse (4) Orgalim
Next Best 11, 9
Fast Start 1, 2, 4, 1

Busan Race 1: Class 6 (1300M) Allowance / KRW 40 Million

Three-year-old maidens with every horse in the race tackling the 1300M for the first time. After an ordinary debut, (4) RAON THE TANK was a much-improved 2nd when from a wide gate he settled midfield and ran on strong over 1200M on January 14th. He comes up slightly in trip again but draws significantly better and could well have too much here. Logical second choice is (9) ADELE STELLA. He comes back in trip after a solid 3rd place at 1600M on January 7th finishing off well from midfield and should be close here. (1) VICTORY NINE may appreciate the step up in trip. All his previous starts have been at 1000M, and he has run adequately but from the inside gate today and with further to play with, he may be a tougher prospect. (10) JOSEPHINE QUEEN and (11) SOUTHERN KING didn’t finish too far back on their respective debuts, and both have the potential to improve here.
Selections (4) Raon The Tank (9) Adele Stella (1) Victory Nine (10) Josephine Queen
Next Best 11, 13
Fast Start 1, 2, 10, 11

Seoul Race 4: Class 6 (1700M) Allowance / KRW 25 Million

(1) POSA POSA performed poorly on his first try at this distance on January 8th, finishing back in the field. He was later found to have some swelling in his right foreleg. He came back into training in the last week of January and from the inside gate and amongst company that can best be described as modest, he can win. That will mean overturning the form from that race on (2) LAGERTHA, who notched his second consecutive 5th place finish. He comes down slightly in the weights today with a small apprentice claim and looks the most credible danger. (5) B J FLASH did little in three outings last year but has subsequently been through two trials, winning the second of them, and may well be a different prospect tackling two turns for the first time. (3) HANI and (8) CLOUTER among other chances in a race with very ordinary form.
Selections (1) Posa Posa (2) Lagertha (5) B J Flash (3) Hani
Next Best 8, 4
Fast Start 1, 2, 5, 9

Busan Race 2: Class 6 (1200M) Allowance / KRW 40 Million

(2) SEONGSIL CHOEGO has raced just twice with a 6th on debut followed by 4th at start number two on January 7th when he worked hard from a wide gate to get on pace. He comes into a better gate today which should give him an easier run in the race and that can allow him to overturn the form on main danger and possible betting favourite (1) DAEHO NURI. The latter comes in following 3rd place in that January 7th race when settling back and running on. He also has the fastest time among these at the distance to his name and is sure to be in the finish once more. (3) GREEN CHEETAH ran an improved 5th last time out at 1400M and while back in trip, draws well and has a very light weight with an apprentice taking 3kg off her back. (7) BLUE CAPTAIN should be better for coming back in trip today after two spins around 1400M. His best result was 3rd at 1200M last November in a good time. (6) YEONGCHEON POWER is another in the frame.
Selections (2) Seongsil Choego (1) Daeho Nuri (3) Green Cheetah (7) Blue Captain
Next Best 6, 5
Fast Start 2, 3, 7, 11

Seoul Race 5: Class 5 (1200M) Allowance / KRW 40 Million

Fillies and mares only here. (6) BAEKDU GIRL was a good winner on debut on December 18th when she sat handy early, hitting the front in the straight to run on comfortably over 1000M. She comes up in class and in distance here but has every chance of maintaining her 100% record. (1) HWASUBOON is yet to finish any worse than 5th in five starts so far. That 5th was last time, and it was her first try at this class and distance, but the margins weren’t huge and from the inside gate today, she should be close. (11) BURUI YEOWANG ran 3rd in that race, which was her 7th top-five finish from eight attempts. She is tactically versatile so the wide draw shouldn’t be too much of a hindrance to her chances here. (14) BEST TORCH and (13) RAON THE DASH both come up in class following last start wins, the latter at this distance and the former on debut, and both should be able to measure up in this company despite the unhelpful draws.
Selections (6) Baekdu Girl (1) Hwasuboon (11) Burui Yeowang (14) Best Torch
Next Best 13, 4
Fast Start 1, 7, 11, 13

Busan Race 3: Class 5 (1400M) Allowance / KRW 40 Million

(1) LEGEND NUMBER ONE comes up in class and in distance following his maiden win at start number two over 1200M on January 14th at this distance. He is down in weight, draws superbly and the jockey/trainer combination ensures he will be favourite. (3) ALIVE STAR was an excellent winner 1200M at class 6 level on December 19th coming from just behind the early leaders to score comprehensively. He is up in class here but surely measures up and has claims again. So too a third last start winner in the shape of (13) STELL LUNA. Her win came at 1300M, but she hasn’t ben worse than 4th in four appearances to date and has posted good times at today’s trip. She doesn’t get the best of the draw but carries a light weight and should not be dismissed. (4) CHEONGHO LEADER is a perennial non-winner but knows how to bank money in this company and along with (10) GWANGDAESEUNGCHEON is a placing chance.
Selections (1) Legend Number One (3) Alive Star (13) Stell Luna (4) Cheongho Leader
Next Best 10, 2
Fast Start 1, 3, 5, 13

Seoul Race 6: Class 5 (1300M) Handicap / KRW 40 Million

Competitive race here. (8) GOOD NISEN made all to win well at start number two over 1200M on January 16th. He comes up in class here but showed enough to suggest there is more to come and he can win again. Big danger is (6) BEOLMAL DAEJANG. Ultra-consistent, he may be winless, but he has only finished outside the top four once in eleven starts. He comes back in trip after a string of solid performances around 1400M, most of which he has led in until the final stages. He comes up a full 5kg from his latest showing when 2nd on January 9th as an apprentice is not engaged this time, but he will be a big factor. (2) RAON THE JET coms up in class and distance having won at the second time of asking on November 27th. Both starts so far have been at 1000M, but he has shown good speed and is in the frame here. Yet another up in class following a good win is (13) SAENAE POWERFUL. His win came at this distance on January 9th when sitting handy early and finishing off well. The draw does him no favours today, but he can measure up in this company. (9) BIG BIT among others in the placing hunt.
Selections (8) Good Nisen (6) Beolmal Daejang (2) Raon The Jet (13) Saenae Powerful
Next Best 9, 3
Fast Start 2, 7, 12, 13

Busan Race 4: Class 5 (1600M) Handicap / KRW 40 Million

(9) DAEHOMA had been working towards his maiden win which finally came at the twelfth time of asking on January 14th when beating a number of today’s rivals at class and distance having settled just behind the early leaders and then run on. He comes up 2.5kg in the weights as a result but he is the one to beat again. (2) TOP ADELE led for much of the way around on his latest start on January 9th, ultimately finishing in 4th place in a good time. He draws well to lead and will be in this a long way. (3) STORM BROWN comes back in trip after recent good work over 1800M. He carries a light weight and from a good gate can settle back and run on here. (7) MENIFEE SONG comes up in class after winning at start number four over 1400M a month ago. Stretching out further may suit him even more and he can go close. (12) SINJIN GANGHO doesn’t draw well but has the smartest finish among these and will be running past plenty late on.
Selections (9) Daehoma (2) Top Adele (3) Storm Brown (7) Menifee Song
Next Best 12, 6
Fast Start 2, 4, 7, 8

Seoul Race 7: Class 4 (1400M) Handicap / KRW 60 Million

Not a lot of convincing recent form here but (6) WILDLY ROMANTIC returned to action in December after five months out and ran a creditable 3rd place over 1200M, running on well as has been his tendency. He comes up to the 1400M for the first time and it may well suit. He will compete for favourite status with (9) ANYANG OXEN. He comes back to a trip at which he consistently runs well and has the fastest time at among these by a wide margin and at his best he wins. (4) YUJEONG CHAMP has lost his way a little since being considered good enough for a run in the KRA Cup Mile last October. He too has posted good times for this distance and today seems a more suitable assignment than those he has had recently. (10) CHOEGO RACE struggled around two turns last time out but today should be more comfortable and he, along with last start runner-up (8) ACE CHAN are among other placing hopes.
Selections (6) Wildly Romantic (9) Anyang Oxen (4) Yujeong Champ (10) Choego Race
Next Best 8, 7
Fast Start 6, 8, 9, 10

Busan Race 5: Class 4 (1200M) Handicap / KRW 60 Million

Competitive race. (5) KING ALLIE has finished no worse than 3rd in five starts so far and comes in having been narrowly defeated by debut-maker Bolaven (who went on to run a very solid 3rd place in a better race than this on Friday) at this distance on January 16th. He does come up in the weights, but he is the one to beat. (10) BUSANHANG GALMAEGI has been similarly consistent across his six starts, winning three of them. He goes best when on pace wo the draw isn’t ideal but if he can find a good position then he will be in the finish. (2) CATCH THE VICTORY ran 2nd to King Allie two starts back over this distance at class 5 level before picking up a win of his own on January 7th when he made all. He carries plenty of weight again but that’s offset a little by a nice draw and he will be a danger. (1) BURNING FLY and (7) MINYEOBONG, in no particular order, look to be the other serious placing contenders.
Selections (5) King Allie (10) Busanhang Galmaegi (2) Catch The Victory (1) Burning Fly
Next Best 7, 8
Fast Start 1, 5, 10, 11

Seoul Race 8: Class 4 (1400M) Handicap / KRW 60 Million

Absolutely wide-open race. Without a huge amount of confidence, we’ll go with (7) MONEY SIJANG to convert his form from his very good win at 1200M to 1400M here. A very consistent money winner with just the two wins but no fewer than twelve top-five finishes from fifteen attempts, he tends to settle back and run on strongly and he has as good a chance as any here. (3) BOMNALUI GIEOK was a class and distance winner on January 16th when he settled midfield and ran on strong. He comes up a full 4kg in the weights but warrants respect here. (1) HI HI comes up in class and in distance following a good win over 1200M in January. He has a 3rd place at this distance in a fair time to his name and can be considered again. (14) FOX POWER gets no favours with the draw but that is offset a little by the light weight. He came from off the pace to win at this distance at class 5 level on January 9th and should measure up at this level. (12) THE QUEEN JUSTICE another to consider.
Selections (7) Money Sijang (3) Bomnalui Gieok (1) Hi Hi (14) Fox Power
Next Best 12, 5
Fast Start 4, 9, 11, 14

Busan Race 6: Class 2 (1800M) Handicap / KRW 90 Million

Two standouts here and very little to choose between them. Choose we must, so we’ll take (4) DOMINATION. After six consecutive wins he has come unstuck at his latest two including a narrow 3rd last time when racing against lots of today’s rivals. His draw is better today, and we’ll go for him to return to winning ways. You Hyun-myung, who has ridden Domination in his last five races, climbs aboard the main rival (8) SUCCESS MACHO. His only defeat so far came in the Owners’ Cup and he returned to winning ways with a crushing score over a mile last time at class 3 level. He won his only previous try at this distance and while he gives 3.5kg to Domination, it would be no surprise if he won again today. (5) POWER WONDERFUL edged out Domination for 2nd place on January 9th and warrants respect while (7) JANGSAN DOKKI and (6) WORLD TODAY are other credible contenders.
Selections (4) Domination (8) Success Macho (5) Power Wonderful (7) Jangsan Dokki
Next Best 6, 2
Fast Start 1, 4, 6, 7

Seoul Race 9: Class 3 (1200M) Allowance / KRW 75 Million

In a tough race, we’ll take a chance on (1) MONEY CHAMP. At his last start, he bolted in by eight-lengths over this distance. It was at class 4 level, so this is stiffer, but he is again drawn well and has a big chance at potentially an each-way price. (12) JEDIwas a class and distance winner last start in a good time and is well suited under the set weight conditions here. Her racing pattern is to settle midfield or better then run-on, so the draw should be fine, and she can win again. (9) PARK WIN is probably the deserved betting favourite, entering off a super run of form with back-to-back wins in his latest two, both over 1400M. It’s been a while since he raced at such a short distance which may be a concern for some, but no reason why he can’t have a big say here. (8) MENI CHAMP has come back to his preferred 1200M in his last 2 starts and expressed with a win and a 2nd; last start he won when leading but he can go well when racing handy. Up in weight and a wider draw today is a challenge but he is up to this. (10) OXFORD KING is lightly raced but has solid form with two wins at this distance. He was pretty ordinary last start but is worth another chance here. (11) DREAM KNOCK another with solid chances.
Selections (1) Money Champ (12) Jedi (9) Park Win (10) Oxford King
Next Best 11, 8
Fast Start 5, 10, 11, 12

Seoul Race 10: Class 4 (1700M) Allowance / KRW 60 Million

(3) QUEENS TOUR is hard to go past here based on her recent efforts in the Filly Triple Crown where she ran well in all three legs, most recently a close 3rd in the Gyeonggi Governor’s Cup. She is well drawn today and, in this company, will take some beating. (7) TYCHE FIRE is the logical second choice, coming to notice on the basis of his last start when midfield and running on well for 2nd place at class and distance. He is versatile and has won when handy to the lead. (6) CHEONGDAM TANK has placed consistently and ran a close 3rd at her latest start when midfield and running on at class and distance on December 19th. She comes up 2kg in the weights but will be in contention. (5) SIMPLE STYLE is worth some consideration as he has shown improvement in each of his three starts at this class and distance. Last time from a wider gate he settled back in the field and ran on for a close 3rd so don’t dismiss. (8) EOSEOWA another with chances.
Selections (3) Queens Tour (7) Tyche Fire (6) Cheongdam Tank (5) Simple Style
Next Best 8, 10
Fast Start 3, 6, 8, 9

Seoul Race 11: Class 1 (1800M) Handicap / KRW 110 Million

(4) WANG BEOTKKOT is yet to win in Class 1 and yet to even run beyond a mile, but he has solid form coming into this race. At his last start he took his chance in the Group 3 Owners’ Cup at Busan over a mile and ran on very well for a close 3rd. The extra distance may not pose a problem today and from a nice draw, a drop in strength in terms of opposition and with the weight in his favour, he is the one to beat. (12) DARK PLAYER is also yet to win at this class but has been consistent of late and last start beat plenty of these when settling back in the field and running on for a close 3rd. He has placing chances again. (9) THE GUMPU is a talented galloper who comes into a slightly easier race here than his recent assignments. He may sit handy here from gate nine and should be in it a long way. (7) IRON SOCKS has won two of his last five starts, both at this distance. He was disappointing over 2000M last time but is worth thought back in trip. (3) GANGTOMA shouldn’t be too far away.
Selections (4) Wang Beotkkot (12) Dark Player (9) The Gumpu (7) Iron Socks
Next Best 3, 1
Fast Start 1, 6, 11, 14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Kellen

CINCINNATI +4


PROP BETS

2nd half more points than first half -155 – 17 of the last 23 SB’s have scored as many or more points in the 2nd half vs the first half. Understand some books may post a lower ML such as -125 but ties lose in that case. I believe both are good bets but understand what you are wagering on before you place the wager.

Team that scores last wins game -230 – Game figures to be close and so the last score is likely to win the game. The Yes has covered in eleven of the last twelve SB’s.

Cooper Kupp Over 8.5 receptions +105 – Cooper Kupp has been an animal all season long. In the 13 games Kupp has played in where the Rams were close enough or against tough enough competition that they couldn’t shut it down, Kupp averaged 8.8 receptions on 11.5 targets. With Cincinnati below average defending slot receivers Kupp figures to be targeted early and often in this game giving us a great opportunity to get over the 8.5 receptions. He’s exceeded this number in 8 of those 13 games (61%).

Total Net Yards Under 755.5 – When looking at the profiles of both teams and how they have fared against similar competition, this number appears to be very high. Based on a few different ways to slice and dice those numbers I get somewhere in the neighborhood of 700 - 720 total yards in this game. I have the Rams pegged for around 390 yards in this game and Cincinnati for closer to about 310-340 yards.

The Bengals defense is about average for the season. Against the middle of the road defenses this year the Rams have totaled anywhere between 347 to 401 yards. The games they have exceeded more than 401 yards were either against the bottom ranked defenses or the Buccaneers who as mentioned above blitz at the highest rate in the league which is a sin against Stafford and this offense. Cincinnati does not blitz so I am not worried about that. Cincinnati won’t blitz often and will keep safeties back to force the Rams to have to methodically move the ball down the field which will eat clock.

The Rams defense is ranked 11th in the league. If I am correct that the Rams won’t go over 400 yards of total offense it will take Cincinnati to get over 355 yards of offense to lose this wager. Cincinnati has topped 355 yards 11 times this year. Six of those eleven games came against the bottom 12 teams in the league on defense. Two more came against the Ravens whose secondary was ravaged. They exceeded that number against the Steelers and Packers but GB was missing it’s top two corners – Rasul Douglas and Jaire Alexander while Pittsburgh was missing Joe Haden, their top corner. The last game came against the 49ers who started Josh Norman but Norman was so bad he was eventually benched. Norman was playing because Emmanuel Moseley missed the game who was their second best corner this season. It doesn’t appear Cincinnati will top 355 yards of offense and if that is the case this game will likely stay under the number. See LA Rams sacks Over below. In the games Cincinnati faced against the best sacks teams in the league they gained (MIN) 366-302 total yards, (CHI) 248, (PIT) 268, (CLE) 348, (SF) 397-345 and (TEN) 345-284. The Minnesota, SF and TEN games all went to OT. The 2nd number to the right of each of those teams is the total yards prior to OT. So, they didn’t top 355 yards in any of those games.
Cincinnati also checks in as a bottom three team in the league in pace of play whether they are neutral or behind in the game which will also eat clock.

Cam Akers under 62.5 yards – Akers was hurt all year and had just five rushing attempts in the last game of the season before the Rams started to use him more. In the three playoff games he has logged 17-55, 24-48 and 13-48 with an average of 2.6 yards per rush. Darrell Henderson, who started 10 games this season before his injury figures to return in this game. Throw in Sony Michel and that’s a lot of carries to give to all players and expect one player to gain a lot of yards on their own. Sean McVay confirmed that thought this week with this comment.

“I think Darrell’s going to go,” McVay said. “So, you’ll have Cam, Darrell and Sony. You’ll be able to see a good, three-back rotation, based on how the game unfolds. The situations that arise will dictate which one you’re seeing. Like anything else, if we’re able to get into a rhythm running it, we’re going to go with the hot hand.”

Akers could get the hot hand but if someone beats him to the punch or the carriers are evenly distributed then it will be tough for Akers to exceed this number. I do expect the Rams to run for over 100 yards in this game but sharing is caring and it sounds like McVay will give everyone the opportunity here.

Cam Akers Under 16.5 rushing attempts -140 – This is a play off of the above mentioned point but a hedge in case Akers is able to break a run that puts him over the yardage amount. I still think it will be tough to garner a lot of carries if they are giving all three backs a chance to play.

Matt Gay Over 1.5 FG’s -130 – Gay has kicked two or more field goals in 15 of the 20 games the Rams have played and 9 of the 10 games the Rams have played at home in the kicker friendly dome this season.

LA Rams Over 3 Sacks -170 – The Rams were 3rd in the league in sacks during the regular season. Cincinnati has played seven games against teams in the top 10 in the league in sacks. One game TJ Watt missed so let’s concentrate on the other six games and the number of sacks allowed in each game by Cincinnati – MIN (5), CHI (5), CLE (5), PIT (2), SF (5), TEN (9). That’s an average of 5.2 sacks per game. Burrow is likely to go down four or more times in this game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Workout Commentary - 2/13/22

February 13, 2022

“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, Handicapper & Analyst


Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 individual
algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100 point takeout.

The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.

Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 11:00 PT Grade: X
Single: 5-Keep Your Coil

Forecast: Keep Your Coil (TOC=Evens; ML=2-1) adds blinkers, is comfortably drawn outside in this five-runner affair, drops to her lowest level ever and should be able to handle this soft assignment either as the controlling speed or from a stalk-and-pounce position. However at 2-1 on the morning line and likely to go lower, she offers little in the way of wagering value. You can use her as a rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.


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RACE 2: Post: 11:29 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 4-Youteyourhonor; 3-She’s Bulletproof

Forecast: This first-level allowance turf sprint for sophomore fillies boils down to two main players. Youteyourhonor (TOC=5/2; ML=3-1) has won three of four career starts with steadily rising speed figures, but this will be her first try on grass. She has a good pace-stalking style and projects to enjoy a trouble-free trip; the main question is, can she duplicate her dirt form on the lawn? If she can, the C. Sise, Jr.-trained daughter of Danzing Candy will be hard to beat. She’s Bulletproof (TOC=Evens; ML=8/5), a clever debut winner over this course and distance last month, is certain to go off favored, and deservedly so. Though she probably didn’t beat a whole lot in victory, the daughter of Idiot Proof did it the right way and has done some good work at San Luis Rey Downs since raced to indicate she’s ready to step forward. Due to price considerations, we’ll put Youteyourhonor slightly on top but include both in our rolling exotics.


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RACE 3: Post: 11:59 PT Grade: X
Single: 2-Lunatic

Forecast: Lunatic (TOC=3/5; ML=6/5) is listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming sprint for sophomore fillies and looks it on paper, though we couldn’t describe her pattern as healthy. After finishing second at 50 cents on the dollar in early December and being claimed by R. Hess, Jr., she’s been away for nearly 10 weeks (not a good sign) and isn’t being raised in class, so in handicapping this race it’s just a matter of whether you can trust her. In a race that offers no other real options, you can use her as a no-value rolling exotic single or better yet, pass.


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RACE 4: Post: 12:32 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 7-Bye Bye Bertie; 5-Buyback

Forecast: We’ll go two-deep in this nine furlong starter allowance turf event for fillies and mares. Bye Bye Bertie (TOC=4/5; ML=5/2) has won four of her last six starts, most recently earning a career-equaling speed figure in victory over this course and distance last month. The L. Powell-trained mare employs an ideal stalking style that ensures a trouble-free trip, so we’re expecting another big effort, one that makes her strictly the one to beat. Buyback (TOC=5-1; ML=5-1) is worth including on your ticket as well. She’s a Northern California invader currently in excellent form, lands F. Prat, and can be effective on the lead or from a second flight, stalking position. She’s a tad slower on speed figures than our top pick but is thoroughly genuine and consistent and has run well over the local lawn in the past.


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RACE 5: Post: 1:06 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 4-Head Start; 1-Coruscation

Forecast: Head Start (TOC=6/5; ML=6/5) looked pretty decent winning a maiden $40,000 sprint last month and since has been transferred to trainer R. Baltas, for whom she has put together a healthy, easy series of workouts to have ready for another top effort in this starter optional claimer for sophomore fillies. She gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy D. Herrera, projects to be on or near the lead throughout, and shouldn’t have any issue with today’s extra half-furlong. Coruscation (TOC=5/2; ML=9/5) is the one to fear most. She adds blinkers after facing the boys last time out, retains F. Prat, and projects to be a strong pace presence from her rail post. The main push goes to Head Start but we’ll have tickets including both in our rolling exotic.


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RACE 6: Post: 1:37 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 6-Win the Day; 1-War At Sea

Forecast: Win the Day finished second in a solid debut sprinting over the local lawn last month and today stretches out to a distance his pedigree suggests he’ll enjoy. The son of Midshipman settled off the pace, rallied wide and continued well through the lane in a race that hopefully will have him fit enough to step forward around two turns. War At Sea finished a nose behind Win the Day in that same race, adds Lasix, lands the rail, and should be forwardly placed in a ground-saving position and then have every chance when the pressure is turned on. He’s had four starts, so perhaps he has a bit less improvement in him than our top pick but is major contender and a “must use” nonetheless.


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RACE 7: Post: 2:08 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 1-Unbroken Star; 3-Secret Touch

Forecast: Unbroken Star (TOC=2-1; ML=9/5) missed as the favorite when second in a $20,000 seller last month and was a voided claim after the race. We’ll assume that whatever the issue was, it’s no longer a problem, because F. Prat stays aboard, and the veteran gelding is actually being raised a notch to $25,000 by trainer M. Puype. A two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, the son of Broken Vow has a good stalking style and projects to enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip. Secret Touch (TOC=9/2; ML=5/2) tossed in a clinker when eased in a starter/optional $50,000 affair in early January, so this class drop is warranted. A repeat of his easy score at Del Mar two races back makes him dangerous and arguably the one to fear most.

Notable Workouts:

Unbroken Star (January 31, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4h). Grade: B
In blinkers, swept on by Ekin (5f, 1:00.4h) and Neige Blanche (4f, :50.4h) through the lane under a nice hold looking quite sharp. Was a voided claim last time out but appeared perfectly fine here.
View Workout Video


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RACE 8: Post: 2:43 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 7-Keystone Field; 1-Irish Heatwave

Forecast: We’ll use two in the nightcap, a nine furlong $25,000 starter’s allowance event on grass for older horses. Keystone Field (TOC=Evens; ML=5/2) has won two of his last three starts and seems well-spotted to continue his winning ways for the always-formidable team of R. Mandella and F. Prat. The veteran son of Candy Ride has strong recent speed figures, a healthy work pattern since raced, and a projected pace flow that should allow for a comfortable pace-stalking trip. There’s no reason he won’t fire another big shot. Irish Heatwave (TOC=3-1; ML=4-1), a four-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course, is a versatile type that can be dangerous on the front end or from off the pace. He’s not quite as fast on figures as our top pick but given his projected ground-saving trip he’ll make his presence felt. The bulk of the play should go to Keystone Field, but both should be included in the various rolling exotics.