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Nick Borrman
5% Champions League Tues Total
Lille-Chelsea under 2.75 (-105)
UEFA Champions League
Chelsea are once again playing very good defense as they have not conceded more than one goal since their very first game of 2022 when they played out a 2-2 draw against Liverpool. That remains their only game in their last 16 in all competitions in which they have conceded more than one goal which including playing Tottenham three teams, all three ‘to nil’ wins, as well as blanking Manchester City.
Chelsea had the 4th best xG differential in the group stage at +1.25 per game, one of only five teams to allow less than 1.0 xGA per game. One of those other five teams is none other than Lille.
Lille won the Ligue 1 title last year thanks to their defense and although they will not be repeating that feat this year, they are taking full advantage of their Champions League birth this year. They are overmatched here against Chelsea and they know that their best chance to win this two-leg tie is to play this game as tight as possible. Anything can happen in one 90-minute game, so if they can play keep this close, they will have a chance in leg 2. However, losing by 2+ goals will be very tough to overcome against one of the best defenses in the world.
Chelsea will also rely on their defense here and I think we are going to see a match void of many chances either way.
TAKE UNDER 2.75 GOALS
Line Parameter: 5% to -130, 4% at 2.5. The 2.75 is important here as if this game finishes Over the total, it's likely with three goals which would be just a half-loss
5% Champions League Tues Total
Lille-Chelsea under 2.75 (-105)
UEFA Champions League
Chelsea are once again playing very good defense as they have not conceded more than one goal since their very first game of 2022 when they played out a 2-2 draw against Liverpool. That remains their only game in their last 16 in all competitions in which they have conceded more than one goal which including playing Tottenham three teams, all three ‘to nil’ wins, as well as blanking Manchester City.
Chelsea had the 4th best xG differential in the group stage at +1.25 per game, one of only five teams to allow less than 1.0 xGA per game. One of those other five teams is none other than Lille.
Lille won the Ligue 1 title last year thanks to their defense and although they will not be repeating that feat this year, they are taking full advantage of their Champions League birth this year. They are overmatched here against Chelsea and they know that their best chance to win this two-leg tie is to play this game as tight as possible. Anything can happen in one 90-minute game, so if they can play keep this close, they will have a chance in leg 2. However, losing by 2+ goals will be very tough to overcome against one of the best defenses in the world.
Chelsea will also rely on their defense here and I think we are going to see a match void of many chances either way.
TAKE UNDER 2.75 GOALS
Line Parameter: 5% to -130, 4% at 2.5. The 2.75 is important here as if this game finishes Over the total, it's likely with three goals which would be just a half-loss
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