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4-Unit Play: Take #829 Niagara +4.5 -110 over St. Peter's (2:00p.m., Sunday, February 27) Revenge spot for Niagara that lost 74-68 in overtime to St. Peter's back in January. The Purple Eagles were listed as small favorites in that matchup, and we do not believe enough has changed to warrant this big of a swing in favor of the Peacocks, regardless of home-court advantage. (which incidentally is one of the weakest in all of college basketball). We're expecting a big game from Marcus Hammond, who is arguably the best player in the MAAC and was able to exploit multiple matchup advantages in the last head-to-head. We are seeing a clear divide between sharp and square bettors on this matchup, where professional bettors are taking positions on the Purple Eagles both on the spread and the moneyline. We'll bite on the value with the visiting dogs.
4-Unit Play: Take #839 Over 131.5 -110 in East Tennessee State and NC Greensboro (4:00p.m., Saturday, February 26) We have historically found most of our edge and value by betting totals in February and March, so we will now be providing our model edge plays which have treated us very well over the past decade. We will not be providing a write up for these plays and will copy this message across all plays that fit our number and model edge.
2-Unit Play. Take #819 SMU (+11) over Houston (12:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 27)
Houston is obviously the better team. However, this line is a bit thick. SMU is a solid veteran crew and they are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. This is a legit squad; the Mustangs are an NCAA Tournament-caliber group. They are going to battle in this one because this game means more to them than it does to Houston. Maybe Houston is too much for them. But the Cougars are just 3-4 ATS in their last seven games and they have been unimpressive. SMU won the first matchup, 85-83, so they know they can play with Houston. I'll take the points here.
1-Unit Play. Take #823 Illinois (Pk) over Michigan (2 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 27)
These two teams are a goddamn mess. But Illinois is the better squad. They should be fired up after their loss to Ohio State, a game in which head coach Brad Underwood was booted late in the second half. Illinois won the first meeting this year and they have beaten Michigan four straight times. They have more experience and more talent. Home court favors the Wolverines. But Illinois is 6-4 SU on the road this year and they have picked up road wins in tough venues like Michigan State and Indiana. I think they can get this one.
2-Unit Play. Take #833 George Washington (+10) over George Mason (2:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 27)
George Mason played over its head for the first three months of the season. Now they have come back to reality. The Patriots are just 3-5 ATS in their last eight games and the only thing standing between them and an eight-game losing streak is two overtime wins. George Washington is finally getting things together. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games and their transfer-rich roster is starting to play well together. These guys aren't good. But they are feisty. They have beaten up the bottom tier of the conference lately and been very competitive with the top tier. I think this number is too much and GW should put up a fight in this one.
2-Unit Play. Take #843 St. John's (-2.5) over DePaul (5 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 27)
2-Unit Play. Take #847 Indiana (-3) over Minnesota (6 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 27)
Indiana is just 2-7 SU on the road. However, I think that this team is better than its record overall and I think that they are due for a road win here. The Gophers are 3-12 SU in their last 15 games and have been a mess in conference play. Minnesota has put up a good fight. But Indiana desperately needs this win to pad its NCAA Tournament resume. Maybe I'm wrong about this group; but all season long I've felt that Indiana is better than its results. I think they find a way to grind this one out.
1-Unit Play. Take #849 Nebraska (+10) over Penn State (7 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 27)
This feels like too many points for Penn State to lay out. They've won three of four games. But this isn't an overwhelming team with high-end talent. Nebraska stinks. But more than half of their losses this year have been by 10 points or fewer and Penn State hasn't been great playing after a win. I think the Huskers find a way to hang around.
Carpe diem. Good luck.
POINT SPREAD SUNDAY
Mark Zinno
76ers -8 vs. Knicks
Suns -1 vs. Jazz
Warriors -4 vs. Mavericks
Mavericks/Warriors over 220
SMU/Houston over 137
Illinois/Michigan Over 141.5
UConn -11 vs. Georgetown
Ohio State -4.5 vs. Maryland
Oilers/Hurricanes 1p over 1.5
THE LOMBARDI LINE
Will Hill
Knicks +8 vs. 76ers
Pelicans +1.5 vs. Lakers
Jazz -2 vs. Suns
BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR - Maryland
EASTERN CONF. NBA O/U BEST BET! - Charlotte Under
NBA TOTAL 10* "BLUE CHIP" - Denver Under
O/U CBB SUNDAY SLAM DUNK CLUB! - Monmouth Over
NHL - Icecrusher
3.5* San Jose -125 (NHL Plays 3.5* or higher 7-1ytd)
3* Anaheim -120
2* New York Rangers -134
2* St Louis/Chicago Over 6
2* Pittsburgh/Columbus Over 6.5
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