Service Plays Thursday 3/3/22

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler

2* Hawks
2* Indiana St Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover

Sacramento kings

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Gold Sheet

Added


3% - Jacksonville -10.0 (-110)

3% - Michigan -2.0 (-110)

4% - Oregon at Washington Play: Total Over 144.5 (-110)

3% - Long Beach State -5.5 (-110)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

big al
lmu under
stanford
kansas

[Can'tPickAWinner]

jack jones

20 pistons

15 bulls

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TMTW Sports

CBB

4k Michigan ML
4k Tulane +1.5
2k CS Fullerton -2
2k Utah Valley +6.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al McMordie

NCAA HOOPS CONF. TOTAL OF THE YEAR! - Pacific Under 140.5
NCAA HOOPS ROAD WARRIOR - Stanford +19
38-18 ATS NCAA HOOPS PAYBACK PAYDAY! - Kansas -10.5
NHL SLAPSHOT CLUB - Boston +100
NBA HIGH ROLLER - Toronto -8.5
DAYTIME NCAA ELITE INFO - ARLR +13
NCAA HOOPS TRIPLE PACK - Navy -13 , Northern KY -4 , Cleveland St -10.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WUnderdog
cbb
Central Arkansas+10.5 vs jacksonville

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Addt'l VSiN Hosts & Guests

Jim Root
Georgia State to Win Sun Belt Tournament (+400)
Cincinnati +7.5 vs. SMU
Oregon -4 vs. Washington

A NUMBERS GAME
Gill Alexander
Cristina Busca +218 vs Dayana Yastremska
Marie Bouzkova -152 vs Petra Martic
Pepperdine +4 vs San Diego

Dr. Bob Stoll
Wright State -4 vs. Oakland
Morehead State -8 vs. Tennessee Tech
Indiana State +1.5 vs. Illinois State
UMass-Lowell +2 vs. Hartford

Will Hill
Nets +2.5 vs. Heat

THE EDGE
Jonathan Von Tobel
Celtics PK vs. Grizzlies

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rob V: NBA 100% Game Of The Week Banger System Side
Game: (511) Golden State Warriors at (512) Dallas Mavericks
Date/Time: Mar 3 2022 8:40 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Dallas Mavericks -1.5 (-110)

The NBA Power System Play is on Dallas. Game 512 at 8:40 eastern. The Mavs have been playing solid since the break and recently beat Golden St on the road. Now they get the Warriors at home at less than full strength. The Mavs have covered 8 of 10 vs .600 or better and 5 of 5 as a dog or favorite of 2 or less as well as 6 of 7 with 1 day of rest. The Warriors have failed to cover 5 of 6 off a loss and the last 6 with 1 day of rest as well as the last 5 vs a winning team. Road teams that allowed 124 or more and off a road loss and previous home loss have not covered vs a team that won as a road favorite like Dallas. Move on the Mavericks tonight.





RV: NCAAB SHARP $ OFF SHORE STEAM GAME OF THE YEAR
Game: (819) Tennessee State at (820) SE Missouri State
Date/Time: Mar 3 2022 7:30 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: SE Missouri State -145

NCAAB OFF SHORE STEAM MOVE GAME OF THE YEAR----SEMO. GAME 820 AT 7:35 EASTERN. MOVE ON THE RED HAWKS.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THE GOLD SHEET
ALL BASKETBALL PLAYS
In Ja We Trust
Game: (507) Memphis Grizzlies at (508) Boston Celtics
Date/Time: Mar 3 2022 7:40 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Memphis Grizzlies +2.5 (-110)

There are a couple whispers out there that Ja Morant might rest tonight. We don't believe he will, seeing as it's a nationally-televised game and he's in the thick of the MVP race. But that's our disclaimer and possibly part of the equation for why the line has swung about five points in Boston's favor since the opener.

We’d almost guarantee that no one was talking about this as a possible Finals preview a few months ago, and that still looks a bit of a longshot, but recent form of both has inquiring minds at least thinking about it. Each have recovered from some recent stumbles but the extended numbers are very good both ways (Griz 11-3 SU, 10-3-1 vs. line last 14; Celtics 12-2 SU last 14, 6-2 vs. line last 8 against teams not named the Pistons).

Boston will be going without Jaylen Brown (ankle) tonight, though after he went out very early on Tuesday vs. the Hawks. As it has often been for the Celtics, it was defense keying the win, limiting Trae Young to nine points in the second half and harassing ATL into 24 misses in 31 attempts beyond the arc. But Memphis is (much) better than Atlanta, and we expect to see a strong effort out of the Grizzlies tonight. Play Memphis.



Duuuval
Game: (306189) Central Arkansas at (306190) Jacksonville
Date/Time: Mar 3 2022 7:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Jacksonville -10.0 (-110)

We’ll say this for Central Arkansas...the Bears were pretty consistent this season. Not necessarily in a good way, however, as with one of the nation’s worst defenses (81.2 ppg allowed, ranks 348; 47.2% FGs allowed, ranks 336) it might come as no surprise that UCA was one of the nation’s worst travelers, too. To wit: save for a couple of outliers against very suspect Eastern Kentucky and North Alabama outfits, the Bears just didn’t lose every one of their road games this season, they lost them by double-digit margins. Not good. That included a 79-59 beatdown administered by Jacksonville on Jan. 29.

The Dolphins were the anti-UCA of the A-Sun; whereas the Bears ranked near the bottom of scoring defense nationally, Jacksonville ranked near the top (58.6 pg ranked 4th), somewhere bringing a smile to the face of Artis Gilmore, we’re sure. The Dolphins were also one of the nation’s most-accomplished spread performers (18-6), covering 7 of 8 as an A-Sun host (including the aforementioned romp past UCA in cozy Swisher Gym), and with seven scoring between 8-14 ppg, there’s plenty of balance, with former Samford transfer G Kevion Nolan (14 ppg) & F Bryce Workman (10 ppg) not afraid to step up and hit the big shots. This is where the Bears jump off of the A-Sun Tourney carousel tonight, especially if the old saying about “defense wins championships” means anything (and it does!). Play Jacksonville.

Yes, we dropped the ball on $2 Tuesday, but hopefully you rebounded with us on a 7-1 Wednesday. If you're interested in a long-term subscription with GoldSheet, promo code REBOUND999 will save you $1,000 off a one-year all-access pass containing GoldSheet's top selections (with expert analysis) in MLB, NBA, NCAAB, NFL and college football.



Keep Riding the Train
Game: (769) Portland State at (770) Idaho
Date/Time: Mar 3 2022 9:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Over 154.5 (-110)

Portland State has been almost single-handedly keeping the “Big Sky Over” angle relevant into March. Even Jim Cramer on Mad Money might start charting this trend that has seen the Vikings land “over” in 10 of 11 games since first-year HC Jase Coburn took the reins off of his transfer-heavy roster in mid-January, akin to just rolling the ball on the court and letting his guys deal. Which they mostly have, scoring better than 81 ppg across the past eleven games and winning outright seven of the last nine including a rousing upset win over Weber State last week. Everyone seems to have gotten in on the act for the Vikings, with five now averaging double-digit scoring, with 6-10 ex-ASU F Khalid Thomas the real mover lately, scoring 20 ppg across the past three.

Our interest in the over is also piqued by recent efforts of the host Vandals, of all teams, who have burned the nets in their futuristic new, eco-friendly, mass-timber arena, scoring 80 or more in their last three at home, each one an upset at Moscow vs. a Big Sky contender (Weber State, Montana, & EWU). USF transfer G Trevante Anderson has also caused quite a stir in these parts the past few weeks, with efforts like 32 on Saturday at Northern Colorado and 26 in the Weber State win on Feb. 12. Anderson also had 20 and backcourt mate Mikey Dixon 27 when Idaho won 84-79 at Viking Pavilion on Jan. 24, effectively kick -starting the Portland State cascade of points and the recent “over” trends (which also show the Vandals that way 5 of their past 6 games). Keep riding the train. Play the over.



Go Blue
Game: (765) Iowa at (766) Michigan
Date/Time: Mar 3 2022 9:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Michigan -2.0 (-110)

That was more like it from the Wolverines on Tuesday vs. Michigan State, blistering the Spartans 87-70 at Fritz Crisler Arena. Nothing wrong with the offense across the past two efforts, scoring 86 ppg, and the only thing standing between three straight wins on this crucial late-season homestand was Illinois hitting almost everything it put up (57% from floor and 59% from 3-land!) on Sunday. Beat the Hawkeyes for the second time this season on Thursday and finish this crucial homestand 3-1 (Rutgers had earlier fallen), and we suspect Michigan will have duly impressed the Selection Committee to rule favorably on at-large status. Stay tuned.

In the meantime, the Wolverines lose nothing with the shrewd ex-St. Joe’s HC Phil Martelli steering the Ann Arbor ship while Juwan Howard serves his suspension, and 7-footer Hunter Dickinson got in on the act big-time against Sparty earlier this week when scoring a career-high 33. As noted, Michigan has already gotten the Hawkeyes once, outscoring them 84-79 in a mild Iowa City upset on Feb. 17, a career night for 6-11 Wolverine frosh Moussa Diabate, who scored 28, and aside from the Spartans and Scarlet Knights on this homestand, other scalps claimed by Michigan in Ann Arbor include Purdue and San Diego State, likely Big Dance entries all. Can’t shortchange Iowa and its high-octane offense scoring nearly 84 ppg (ranks 5th), while F Keegan Murray (23.3 ppg) remains in hot pursuit of Bryant’s Peter Kiss for the national scoring lead. Iowa (its at-large bid effectively in hand) might not be approaching this tilt with the same urgency as the hosts. Play Michigan.

Yes, we dropped the ball on $2 Tuesday, but hopefully you rebounded with us on a 7-1 Wednesday. If you're interested in a long-term subscription with GoldSheet, promo code REBOUND999 will save you $1,000 off a one-year all-access pass containing GoldSheet's top selections (with expert analysis) in MLB, NBA, NCAAB, NFL and college football.



PACtion Out West
Game: (789) Oregon at (790) Washington
Date/Time: Mar 3 2022 10:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 144.5 (-110)

The Ducks have a pretty straightforward task this weekend to stay on their surfboards and remain in the discussion for an at-large berth to the Dance. Namely, win these next two games in Seattle and Pullman to at least advance the debate. The Webfoots are up against the same Washington team they thrashed by 28 at Eugene back on Jan. 23, when Oregon played its best half of the season that night when jumping all over the Huskies from the outset and up 44-10 before U-Dub knew what hit it. Along the way Dana Altman’s guys hit 54% from the floor and forced 23 turnovers.

Mike Hopkins’ team has had a few bad halves and games since, most recently on Big Monday when UCLA went on a similar blitz at the start of the second half to erase a Huskies halftime edge in Seattle, and as the season has progressed U-Dub has perhaps become too reliant upon top scorer G Terrell Brown, Jr (21.5 ppg), who takes twice as many shots as anyone else on the roster. Balance edge for sure to the Ducks, as Altman has had four different leading scorers in the past five games, with Oklahoma transfer G De’Vion Harmon seeming revived (15 ppg last weekend vs. UCLA & USC) after slumping in previous games. The Huskies and their suspect defense are on a 9-1 "over" run, and Oregon should be able to fill the net tonight. Play the over.

Yes, we dropped the ball on $2 Tuesday, but hopefully you rebounded with us on a 7-1 Wednesday. If you're interested in a long-term subscription with GoldSheet, promo code REBOUND999 will save you $1,000 off a one-year all-access pass containing GoldSheet's top selections (with expert analysis) in MLB, NBA, NCAAB, NFL and college football.



Big Test in the Big West
Game: (785) UC Davis at (786) Long Beach State
Date/Time: Mar 3 2022 10:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Long Beach State -5.5 (-110)

Long Beach State has been a compelling recommendation the past couple of months, as Coach Monson uncovered a very sharp edge for his offense deep in the portal with D-II transfer wing Joel Murray (16.2 ppg and coming on strong down the stretch, scoring 20+ the past two), and former Tulane transfer G Colin Slater chipping in at 14.2 ppg and also serving as Monson’s designated long-range threat (41.1% beyond arc). Moreover, the Beach has been great value, covering 13 of its last 14 including a 70-63 win at Davis on Jan. 29 when Murray and Slater combined for 34.

Meanwhile the Aggies has seen more cancellations (eight!) than any team in the nation, and while the overall 12-8 record doesn’t look so bad, UCD has come up empty vs. the top Big West contenders (0-3 straight-up and against the spread vs. Beach, Fullerton, and UCSB) that weren’t erased from the slate. Play Long Beach State.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Whale

Conservative Selections


New Regular Evolution Series

NHL Over on Vancouver
Tampa Bay

NBA Heat

New Underdog Evolution Series

NHL Tampa Bay as an underdot or -1.5 as a favorite


________________________________________

Aggressive Selections

NBA to Win $150

4pm 501 Under 232 on Bulls
430pm 1507 Grizzlies first half +1
430pm 503 Heat -3
530pm 510 Over 238.5 on Spurs
4pm 1501 Under 113 Bulls first half
7pm 513 Under 220.5 on Clippers
430pm 505 Over 218 on Pistons
530pm 1510 Over 123.5 on Spurs first half
7pm 1513 Under 113.5 on Clippers first half

NHL to Win $150

430pm 9 Over 5.5 on Vancouver
6pm 15 Bruins -112
4pm 6 Tampa Bay -170

NCAA BB to Win $125

4pm 808 Purdue Fort Wayne -6.5
4pm 808 Over 147.5 on Purdue Fort Wayne
8pm 796 San Diego State -8


NBA Two Team Parlays Bet $80

4pm 501 Under 232 on Bulls
430pm 1507 Grizzlies first half +1

430pm 503 Heat -3
530pm 510 Over 238.5 on Spurs

4pm 1501 Under 113 Bulls first half
7pm 513 Under 220.5 on Clippers

430pm 505 Over 218 on Pistons
530pm 1510 Over 123.5 on Spurs first half

NHL Two Team Parlay Bet $90

430pm 9 Over 5.5 on Vancouver
4pm 6 Tampa Bay -170

NCAA BB Two Team Parlay Bet $80

4pm 808 Purdue Fort Wayne -6.5
8pm 796 San Diego State -8

NBA Round Robins 2's and a 3 for $20 a way for $80

4pm 501 Under 232 on Bulls
430pm 1507 Grizzlies first half +1
430pm 503 Heat -3

530pm 510 Over 238.5 on Spurs
4pm 1501 Under 113 Bulls first half
7pm 513 Under 220.5 on Clippers

430pm 505 Over 218 on Pistons
530pm 1510 Over 123.5 on Spurs first half
7pm 1513 Under 113.5 on Clippers first half

NHL Round Robin 2's and a 3 for $20 a way for $80

430pm 9 Over 5.5 on Vancouver
6pm 15 Bruins -112
4pm 6 Tampa Bay -170

NCAA BB Round Robin 2's and a 3 for $20 a way for $80

4pm 808 Purdue Fort Wayne -6.5
4pm 808 Over 147.5 on Purdue Fort Wayne
8pm 796 San Diego State -8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allen Eastman

7-Unit Play. Take #789 Oregon (-4) over Washington (10 p.m., Thursday, March 3)
I will go with the road team in this one. Oregon is fighting hard for an NCAA Tournament berth. They need all the wins that they can get and I think that they will pick one up here against one of the weakest teams in the Pac-12. The Ducks have dominated this series. They have beaten Washington six straight times and are 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings. The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two teams and Oregon is 4-1 ATS on the road against teams that are above .500 at home. The Huskies are going to be without key guard Daejon Davis and they will miss his experience. Go with the Ducks in this one.

3-Unit Play. Take #306193 Florida-Gulf Coast (+3) over Bellarmine (7 p.m., Thursday, March 3)
I will take the points in this Atlantic Sun matchup. These are two solid teams that have a lot of experience. I think that this is going to be a very close game in the final minutes. Gulf Coast is the better defensive team and they shoot the 3-pointer better. The Eagles are on a 6-2 ATS run and are 13-4 ATS on Thursday games. Bellarmine is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games and just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall. Take the points and look for the upset.
Allen Eastman

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doug Upstone

3 Unit Play. Take #732 SMU -7 over Cincinnati (7:00 p.m. ET, Thursday, March 3)
SMU is a sizzling 14-0 SU at home, winning by 14.8 PPG. Cincinnati has lost four straight, six of seven and is 2-9 ATS since Jan. 24. The Bearcats cannot shoot, at 40.8 % overall and even worse 38.7% on the road. The Mustangs are trying to wrap up the 2nd seed and lost by 17 at Cincy in early January. This is payback for SMU against a Cincinnati team that is 1-7 ATS versus teams shooting 45+% with a defense holding foes to 42% or lower this season.

7 Unit Play. Take #808 IP-Fort Wayne -6.5 over UI-Chicago (7:00 p.m., Thursday, March 3)
In the Horizon League quarterfinals, Fort Wayne is hot, riding a nine-game win streak (8-1 ATS). They face UIC, who is actually riding a four-game win streak of their own, but all were against teams that were worse than they are. Take note, teams like UIC as road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, after four or more consecutive wins, against an opponent after seven or more consecutive wins, are 9-33 ATS, losing by 10.4 PPG. And the Flames 1-9 ATS revenging a road loss as they suffered on Feb. 12. .
Two straight 3-0 sweeps the last two nights, let's keep it going!
Good Luck, Let's Roll,
Doug

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Spreitzer

3-Unit Play: 760 Kansas -11.5 over TCU (8 p.m., Thursday, March 3)
It's not often we get a top-10 power rated team off back-to-back losses and with a shot at revenge 48 hours after losing to their current opponent but that's the case tonight. Kansas had a terrible 2-point shooting night on Tuesday, making just 14 of 40 in the 10-point loss at TCU. This is a team that makes 55% of their 2-pointers on the season (23rd in the nation) and rank 4th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. TCU wins with defense but they have serious issues on the offensive end and they've dropped three in a row on the road, losing by 11 ppg. After a rough second half at Baylor, followed by a tired looking performance on Tuesday, I expect the Jayhawks to bounce back with the win and cover. I'm laying the points with Kansas on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

3-Unit Play: Take 781 Rice +6.5 over UTEP (9 p.m., Thursday, March 3)
These two always seem to play close, tight contests, and I expect this one to go right to the wire which makes the points well worth taking. Rice led the last meeting well into the second half and the difference in the 72-70 UTEP win came from the 3-point line where the Miners made 11 of 21. But UTEP doesn't defend the perimeter well and Rice is an excellent 3-point shooting team. The dog has covered 15 of the last 20 in this series and the road team is on a 6-2 ATS run. I'm taking the points with the road dog again. I'm backing Rice on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

3-Unit Play: Take 809 Detroit +4 over No. Kentucky (7 p.m., Thursday, March 3)
Detroit has already beaten the Norse twice this season. They're the better team and can win whether the pace is a little slow or both teams are getting up and down the floor. Detroit's an excellent 3-point shooting team and they take plenty, ranking 8th in the nation in 3-point-to-FGA ratio. They're 55th in the nation in effective FG percentage while NKU ranks 216th in the same metric. The Norse struggle defending the 2-pointer and Detroit lit-up the Norse from inside the arc this season. NKU jumpstarts their attack by forcing turnovers but Detroit handles the basketball with care and committed just 20 turnovers in this season's two meetings, combined. I believe Detroit will make it a three-game sweep of the Norse this season. I'm taking the points with Detroit on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.