Saturday 3/5/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-05-2022, 02:35 PM

Kenny Walker

Mar 05 '22, 4:00 PM in 24m
NCAA-B | Cal-Irvine vs CS Bakersfield
Play on: Cal-Irvine -5 -110 at BetCris

Free Pick on Cal-Irvine

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-05-2022, 02:35 PM

Timothy Black

Mar 05 '22, 4:00 PM in 24m
NCAA-B | Oregon vs Washington State
Play on: Washington State -1½ -110 at Caesars

1* Best Bet on Washington State -1½ -110

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-05-2022, 02:36 PM

Steve Janus

Mar 05 '22, 4:00 PM in 24m
NCAA-B | Texas vs Kansas
Play on: OVER 137½ -110

1* Free Sharp Play on Texas vs Kansas over 137½ -110

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-05-2022, 02:36 PM

Larry Ness

Mar 05 '22, 4:00 PM in 24m
NCAA-B | Texas vs Kansas
Play on: Kansas -6½ -110 at Caesars

My free play is on Kansas at 4:00 ET.
When Texas fired Shaka Smart after six unfulfilling seasons, Chris Beard 'jumped ship' and left Lubbock and its beloved fan base last April to take over the Texas program. The Longhorns opened 5th in the AP's preseason poll and are headed to Lawrence for its regular season finale ranked 21st at 21-9 (10-7 in the Big 12). Bill Self's Jayhawks finished 21-9 last season, including a loss in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. That was not what was expected of a team ranked No. 6 in the AP's preseason poll. Kansas began the current season ranked No. 3 and is ranked 6th, as the Jayhawks welcome Texas to Allen Fieldhouse. Kansa is 24-8 and its 13-4 Big 12 record places them in a tie for first place with No. 3 Baylor.
Beard brought in seven transfers with NCAA Division I experience. 6-6 Timmy Allen was named All-Pac 12 at Utah last season (17.2 & 6.4) and leads Texas in scoring (12.3) and rebounding (6.5) but his scoring is down 5 PPG. The same goes for PG Carr (19.6 & 4.9 APG last year with Minnesota), who is averaging a more modest 11.2 PPG and 3.2 APG. Guards Jones (10.9) and Ramey (9.0) join Carr in the backcourt, while 6-9 center Mitchell (8.7 & 4.0) and 6-7 forward Bishop (6.8 & 5.5) join Allen up front. Defense is the team's 'calling card,' as Beard's team ranks 8th in the nation in allowing 59.1 PPG.
Kansas guards Agbaji (20.2 & 5.2) and Braun (15.0 & 6.0) make a potent duo but Remy Martin (19.1 PPG last season), an Arizona State transfer who was named the preseason player of the year in the Big 12, has been a HUGE disappointment. He's averaging just 7.4 PPG and has never gained Self's complete trust in running the offense. Harris (5.5 & 4.0 APG) has gotten extra time with Remy struggling both on the court and with some injuries. The 6-7 Wilson (10.6 & 7.1) and the 6-10 McCormack (9.7 & 7.1) round out the starting lineup. Kansas is an excellent offensive team, averaging 78.9 PPG (26th) on 48.6% shooting (15th).
Kansas will be playing with revenge from a 79-76 loss at Texas back on Feb 7 and no Big 12 program knows better than Kansas what it's like to take the floor with a conference title on the line. The Jayhawks and Bears are each 13-4 and a "W" would give Kansas at least a share of the Big 12 title (Baylor hosts Iowa St). Let me point out that while Kansas lost at Texas, it also scored 76 points, which is 17 points MORE than Texas has allowed on average this season (see above). With so much on the line (and with that revenge motive), I'm laying the points with Texas.
Good luck...Larry

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-05-2022, 02:36 PM

Dave Price

Mar 05 '22, 4:00 PM in 24m
NCAA-B | VCU vs St. Louis
Play on: VCU +2½ -110 at Mirage

Dave's Saturday Free Play:
1* on VCU +2.5
The Key: VCU has won 8 straight and 11 of its last 12 to nearly punch its ticket into the NCAA Tournament. A road win over St. Louis here would go a long way. The Rams have upset road wins over Davidson, Richmond and George Mason during this stretch. They can go into St. Louis and win as they face a Billikens team that is just 3-4 SU in their last 7 games overall with their wins coming against La Salle, St. Joseph's and Rhode Island. They have lost every time they have stepped up in competition with two losses to St. Bonaventure, a 21-point loss to Davidson and a loss to Richmond. VCU is 8-1 ATS in road games against a team with a winning record this year. The Rams are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 matchups. Take VCU.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-05-2022, 02:36 PM

Rob Vinciletti

Mar 05 '22, 4:30 PM in 54m
NCAA-B | New Orleans vs Nicholls State
Play on: Nicholls State -8 -110 at BetCris

Saturday card led By our Last Home Game Play Of The Year 5-1 Last 6 years an Executive Level TIER 1 and our Conference Tournament Plays. We also have Perfect System Plays in NBA and NHL and Afternoon Soccer. NCAAB Comp Play below.
The NCAAB Comp Play is on Nicholls St at 4:30 eastern. The Colonels are first in the South land Conference and have 12 point road loss revenge on New Orleans here today. The last 2 here on their home court against the Privateers were both Blowout wins by 20= points. They are ranked 23rd in the nation scoring and have put up 80 or more in each of their last 3 home games. New Orleans has lost 18 of 19 as a road dog and had to rally from 10 down at the half to win their last home game. With the winning team 8-1 in the series. We will back Nicholls St to serve up revenge. On Saturday a huge card is up and we have Our Last Home Game Play of the Year which has hit 5 of the last 6 seasons, along with an Executive Level Tier 1 and our Conference Tournament System plays. We also have early Soccer and Perfect database systems in the NBA and NHL. Jump on and cash out. For the NCAAB Comp Play. Go with Nicholls St. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-05-2022, 02:37 PM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Workout Commentary - 3/15/22

March 4, 2022

“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.

The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.

Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 8-Gold Phoenix; 10-See Through It; 4-Cane Creek Road; 12-Southern Horse

Forecast: We’ll begin the 11-race program with an inscrutable downhill slalom event for entry-level allowance turf sprinters that attracted a full gate load of 12 runners, at least half of which have a reasonable chance depending upon trips and race flow. Morning line favorite (5/2) Gold Phoenix (TOC=3-1; ML=5/2) ran well in his U.S. debut in a similar affair over the flat course in mid-January, closing well to be second in what was just his second career start, and a repeat of that race makes him the one to beat. However, a somewhat lethargic recent training track drill puts his current condition into question, so we’ll use him in rolling exotic play even though we’re not quite sure what we’ll be getting. See Through It (TOC=7/2; ML=5-1) has hit the board in his last five starts, so he’s likely to be in the fray once again, though his habit of weakening under pressure in the final stages after pressing the pace is somewhat concerning. He appears most comfortable when held up early and allowed to produce a late kick and given that strategy the B. Koriner-trained gelding might punch it in more effectively. Cane Creek Road (TOC=15-1; ML=8-1) has the route-to-sprint angle that always has been quite effective when handicapping the Hillside Turf Course. The analytics aren’t favorable, and yes, he’s a little light in the speed figure department, but we’re of the opinion that he could improve a bunch with the turn back in trip. Southern Horse (TOC=9-1; ML=12-1 is a deep-closing sprinter coming off a solid runner-up effort in a $40,000 claimer over the flat course. He’ll need some help up front and room to rally through the lane to have any kind of chance but if things break his way the Argentine veteran should at least outrun his 12-1 morning line. These are the four we’ll be including in rolling exotic play but best suggestion is to spread as deeply as your budget allows.

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RACE 2: Post: 12:28 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 4-Taiba; 5-Mauritius; 6-Temth Street Don

Forecast: Trainer B. Baffert has a couple of hot first-timers in this contentious six furlong sprint for sophomores, including the $1.7 million Fasig-Tipton 2021 March 2-year-old in training purchase Taiba, a Gun Runner colt who has done everything right in the morning and is clearly highly-regarded and the likely short-priced favorite at 8/5 on the morning line. His stable mate, Mauritious (morning line 5/2), may be pretty good as well, having displayed plenty of talent in his morning breezes and is worth including in the rolling exotics as well. Also deserving of some consideration is Tenth Street Don, listed at 8-1 on the morning line. The V. Cerin-trained colt by Practical Joke brought $240,000 at the 2021 OBS April Sale and has done some good work this winter without being asked for his best. The barn doesn’t have great stats with debut runners but this one should be used on a ticket or two as a back-up or a saver.

Notable Workouts:

One More Bid (February 27, 5f, Santa Anita, :58.4hg). Grade: B
Broke better today than in his last gate work and left Pillow Candy (3f, :37.4hg) far behind while being ridden most of the way, splits of :23.4, :35.1, :47 flat and :59.2 on our watches, a few ticks slower than given time but sharp nonetheless, the galloped to the wire in 1:13.2, solid drill for un-raced maiden. Not particularly quick in the opening furlong but can turn it on midway and should be competitive first time out for Hanson.
View Workout Video

Overrule (February 27, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00hg). Grade: B-
This was a gate work (“g” left off the tab) in company with Take Action (5f, 1:01.2hg) for R. Mandella, mild urging with splits of :24 flat, :35.3, :47.2 and 1:00 flat. Previous works weren’t much but this was a step in the right direction. Mastery colt might be a down-the-road type.
View Workout Video

Pioneering Papa (February 26, Santa Anita, 4f, :46.3hg). Grade: B
Classic Empire gelding turned in a nice solo gate drill under mild urging only, splits of :23.2, :34.4 and :46.4 on our watches in a good display of speed, best drill of a series leading up to his debut. Has some run and should be reasonably competitive in a maiden sprint soon.
View Workout Video

Taiba (February 20, Santa Anita, 5f, :59hg). Grade: B+
Smart gate drill for Baffert in company with McLaren Vale (same time) and Lil Light Hearted (4f, :47.4hg), splits of :23.4, :35.1, :46.4 and :59 flat while appearing slightly best and then coasted to the wire in 1:12.4. Gun Runner colt appears to be made of the right stuff, seems fit, and should be very live at frisking. ‘Vale was a debut winner early this meeting, further framing this gate work in a favorable context.
View Workout Video

Mauritius (February 26, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h). Grade: B
In company outside Rockefeller (same time) and may have been a tad second best but worked strongly nonetheless, splits of :23.2, :35.2, 1:00.2 and 1:13 flat for a full six furlongs while traveling out to the seven-furlong pole for Baffert. Should be fit enough by now, clearly has ability and should be competitive right off the bat vs. maidens.
View Workout Video

Tenth Street Don (January 9, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02h)
Saw him back in early January in a team drill with Street Ruckus (same time) and looked fairly decent for Cerin, splits of :24 flat and :49.2, never really asked, about two lengths clear at the finish after breaking off a similar margin in front. Practical Joke colt was a $240,000 OBS April sale purchase last year, has been given a good foundation and should make the entries soon. Might be an okay type.
View Workout Video

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RACE 3: Post: 12:58 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 6-Sadie Bluegrass; 5-Savvy Gal; 8-Storming Lady

Forecast: We’ll forego a win wager in the third race, a starter’s allowance turf sprint for $25,000 older fillies and mares while spreading three-deep in rolling exotic play. Win-machine Sadie Bluegrass (TOC=8/5; ML=4-1) (11-for-19 in her career) seems the logical top pick, though success established at Golden Gate Fields isn’t always repeated on this tougher Southern California circuit. That said, she’s a strong fit on speed figures based her two most recent victories at the starter’s $12,500 level and regular jockey B. Pena flies down to ride her, so at this abbreviated sprint distance the J. Wong-trained mare projects as a major player and a strong pace factor throughout. Savvy Gal (TOC=6-1; ML=3-1) always does her best running when held up early and then let loose late, and she was up in time to win a similar five furlong event over the local lawn in late January. A similar effort today, especially if the early pace comes up contested, will make her quite dangerous right back. Storming Lady (TOC=7/2; ML=3-1) was fourth as the favorite in the same race that Savvy Gal just won but could bounce back today with an extra furlong to work with. She’s always been effective over the Santa Anita turf course (first or second in seven of 12 outings) and with three nice breezes since raced the J. Mullins-trained mare should be heard from late.

Notable Workouts:

Bristol Bayou (February 27, 4f, :48.3h). Grade: B
Was well off the rail and breezing through the lane in solo half mile drill for Cerin, final three furlongs in :11.4 and :36.4. Always genuine and consistent, holds her form, might be most comfortable around one turn and her record suggests she much prefers dirt over turf.
View Workout Video

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RACE 4: Post: 1:28 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference: 1-Brickyard Road; 3-Canadian Pride; 4-Cezanne

Forecast: Brickyard Road (TOC=4/5; ML=3-1) just wired the field in the Tiznow S. over a mile vs. state-bred foes two weeks ago and is wheeled back quickly while moving into graded stakes company at this seven furlong trip in this year’s edition of the San Carlos S.-G2, a race he won easily last year. The veteran son of Clubhouse Ride has only one way to go from the rail – on the lead for as far as he can carry his speed – and if he can shake loose early (like last year) the C. Lewis-trained horse will be hard to catch once again. Canadian Pride (TOC=5-1; ML=5-1) earned a career top triple digit Beyer speed figure when winning an allowance race here last month and projects to enjoy a similar pace-stalking trip today. Relatively lightly-raced (three wins from 12 starts), the P. Eurton-trained gelding gets tested for class in is first ever appearance in stakes company but in his present form deserves a serious look. Cezanne (TOC=5/2; ML=5/2) was a non-threatening third of five at 3/5 when clearly rusty off a layoff in the Palos Verdes S.-G3 in late January but can expected to step forward considerably with that tightener behind him. Two bullet workouts since raced are encouraging, but he still might be a race away from being where he was last year. Have to use him, though.

Notable Workouts:

Cezanne (February 27, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:12.3h). Grade: B
Ridden a bit through the lane to be even but slightly best outside Spielberg (same time) for Baffert, splits of :23.4, :35.2, :59.3 (to the wire) and 1:12.3 (to seven furlong pole), solid work, better than what we’ve seen of him lately. Might be coming around and getting fit, was far below his best form when last of three in the Palos Verdes S.-G3 in his comeback in late January.
View Workout Video

Eight Rings (February 21, Santa Anita, 4f, :46.3h). Grade: B+
Never really asked in quick half mile solo drill, splits of :11.3, :22.3 and :46.3 while sharpening his speed after a series of two-turn races. Might appreciate a turn back in trip. Maintains his edge.
View Workout Video

Shooters Shoot (February 25, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.2h). Grade: B+
In blinkers, mildly coaxed late, final three furlongs in :11.3 and :36.1 for Baltas. Maintains his form after narrowly missing in the Pals Verdes S. last time out.
View Workout Video

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RACE 5: Post: 1:58 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 5-Leggs Galore; 10-Going to Vegas

Forecast: Leggs Galore (TOC=6/5; ML=7/2) returned to winning form in her first outing since August with an authoritative gate-to-wire score down the Hillside Course in the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf Sprint in mid-January in a fast, highly-rated affair that indicates she’s as good now as ever. A winner of five races from seven starts over the local lawn, the daughter of Bayern has won at this mile distance, but that victory was not against this level of competition, so while she’s easily the controlling speed and will take this field a very long way, that final sixteenth of a mile will be stretching her limit. Going to Vegas (TOC=9/2; ML=3-1), herself a Santa Anita grass specialist (first or second in eight of 11 career starts), was out of her element in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf last November but has trained well enough to be fit and ready for her first start since, and as a Grade-1 winner over the Arcadia grass she is clearly good enough to win with her best race. We’re expecting the daughter of Goldencents to settle in the second flight and then have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with Leggs Galore – based on recency and the projected race shape – given the slight nod on top.

Notable Workouts:

Keeper of Time (February 25, Palm Meadows, 5f, 1:00.2b TC). Grade: B
In a team drill on turf (no dogs), trailing Sunstrike (5f, 1:00.4h TC) and Vantarsi (5f, 1:01.2h TC) to the head of the lane before angling 3-wide and finishing slightly behind Sunstrike (hard held) at the wire, never really asked, final half mile in :24.1 and :47.4 on our watches. Likes to lag and then blast home, arrives following a clever overnight handicap winner at Gulfstream Park.
View Workout Video

Leggs Galore (February 27, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h TT). Grade: B- In blinkers, broke off a few lengths behind Gregory’s Pride (5f, 1:00.2h TT) and closed a gap through the lane but couldn’t catch the winner despite being urged a bit in the final furlong (workmate always breezing), splits of :24.2, :36.1 and 1:00.1. Certainly doesn’t want to be rated in the afternoon, prefers to be let roll from the gate.
View Workout Video

Going to Vegas (February 26, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h TT). Grade: B+
Training track drill In company outside Granola Girl (same time) for P. D’Amato and was always going the better of the two, hard held and extremely keen early and then a half in front at the wire while never really being asked, splits of :24 flat and 1:00 flat, steady and even while appearing very sharp following a vacation. Tough on the front end but can be comfortable stalking and pouncing as well. Ready to fire a big shot.
View Workout Video

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RACE 6: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B
Single: 6-Forbidden Kingdom

Forecast: Forbidden Kingdom (TOC=8/5; ML=8/5) stretches out to a middle distance for the first time in this year’s San Felipe S.-G2 for 3-year-olds, and if he’s ever going to get the trip, it most likely will be in his first try. The son of American Pharoah was dominant in his gate-to-wire victory in the seven furlong San Vicente S.-G2 last time out and was flattered when runner-up Pinehurst returned to win the Saudi Derby-G3 overseas last week. He’ll easily be the controlling speed if his connections permit him to be – hopefully they will allow him to use his best weapon - and given the lack of effective closers among the five other runners we’re expecting the R. Mandella-trained colt to roll all the way to the wire. At 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go shorter, he won’t be offering a lot of value other than as a logical short-priced rolling exotic single.

Notable Workouts:

Armagnac (February 25, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:12.2h). Grade: B
Head-and-head throughout inside Doppelganger (same time) while traveling out to the seven furlong pole, slightly best to the wire but slightly second best late while under strong pressure in the final furlong, splits of :23.3, :35.2, 1:00.1 and 1:12.4 on our watches. Decent work for both but neither looked all that great late. We’ll find out what each is made of in the San Felipe S.
View Workout Video

Doppelganger (February 25, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:12.2h). Grade: B
See Armagnac, above.
View Workout Video

Forbidden Kingdom (February 24, Santa Anita, 7f, 1:25h). Grade: B
Broke off about six lengths behind Micro Share (7f, 1:26h), engaged workmate on the turn, put his head in front in the upper stretch but then appeared to lose some of his steam late and was second best to the breezing ‘Share at the wire and also continuing out to the seven furlong pole under some coaxing, splits of :23.3, :35.2, :47.1, 1:11.4 and 1:25 flat on our watches, excellent final time but not quite what we were hoping to see. Probably wants to be let roll and utilize his best weapon (his early speed) and easily projects be the controlling speed in the San Felipe.
View Workout Video

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RACE 7: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: X
Single: 1-Got Thunder

Forecast: Got Thunder (TOC=6/5; ML=6/5) has burned a considerable amount of money in his last two starts, finishing a distant second at 3/5 in a main track maiden sprint in late December and then failing again, this time at 2/5, when a non-threatening third (of six) in a dirt miler last month. Yet, he’s listed at 6/5 on the morning line and that’s probably close to where he’ll leave at in at this one mile grass event that came up unusually light in quality and offers no viable alternative. Trust him? Can’t do it but based on speed figures he almost has to win, assuming he handles the grass. In a race that his best left alone, you can use the son of Arrogate as a no-value rolling exotic single or better yet just pass the race.

Notable Workouts:

Got Thunder (February 27, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1h). Grade: B+
Easy to the top, was ridden some through the lane and responded very well, final half mile on our watches in :12.3, :24.2 and :47.3, impressive late kick. Arrogate colt continues to impress in the morning but has been quite disappointing when it matters in the afternoon. Possibly just a morning glory, will get a chance to prove otherwise on grass next time out.
View Workout Video

Barnfield (February 26, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:13.4hg). Grade: C+
Second best in gate drill with Kirstenbosch (6f, 1:13.3hg) and Baby’s Dream (5f, 1:01hg), head-and-head until mid-stretch before weakening late and winding up more than a length back at the wire, splits of :24 flat, :36 flat :48.2 and 1:15 flat on our watches, much slower than given and not impressive while doing his best to the end. Down the road type at this stage.
View Workout Video

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RACE 8: Post: 3:30 PT Grade:
Use (in order of preference): 11-Honey Jar; 6-Kalon; 10-Xmas Surprise

Forecast: The first leg of the late Pick-4 is another challenging Hillside Turf Course sprint, this one for fillies and mares in the first allowance condition. Honey Jar (TOC=3-1; ML=7/2) returned following an eight month layoff to finish a weakening fourth as the favorite over this course and distance last month in a race that she very well could have needed. Given that she produced a significant forward move in her second outing last year, the M. McCarthy-trained filly seems likely to follow a similar pattern this time around. “Win rider” F. Prat stays aboard, and from a comfortable outside draw the daughter of Kantharos projects to draft into a lovely stalking position and have clearl sailing from the head of the lane to the wire. Kalon (TOC=9/2; ML=6-1) is winless in five starts over the Santa Anita turf course but turned in a career-top performance in her first try down the Hill when a rallying second at 21-1 in a similar affair in late January. She’s a prototype late-running sprinter and will get the patient ride she requires from J. Hernandez, so at 6-1 on the morning line she deserves inclusion on your ticket. Xmas Surprise (TOC=18-1; ML=20-1) is for long shot players. She’ll require a major forward move in the speed figure department in her first outing since October but the L. Powell-trained daughter of More Than Ready has been quite impressive in her recent morning breezes and could very well be much improved off the layoff. She’s nicely bred, lightly-raced and probably better than her 20-1 morning line gives her credit for

Notable Workouts:

Xmas Surprise (February 9, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.1h TT). Grade: B+
Away since October and appears to be a better type on the comeback trail, extra sharp in this half mile solo training track breeze, final quarter without being asked in :23 flat for L. Powell. Has a prior win over the local turf course and should fire a big shot fresh.
View Workout Video

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RACE 9: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: X
Single: 3-As Time Goes By

Forecast: As Time Goes By (TOC=4/5; ML=4/5) is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite in the Beholder Mile-G1 after her recent runaway score by more than 13 lengths in the La Canada S.-G3 on New Year’s Day. The five-year-old mare has finished first or second in all seven starts over the Santa Anita main track, continues to impress in morning workouts, and looks well-placed to pick up where she left off. The B. Baffert-trained daughter of American Pharoah finished second in the Beholder last year behind Swiss Skydiver, and that brilliant mare’s trainer Ken McPeak is represented again, this time with Envoutante, (TOC=8/5; ML=8/5)
Notable Workouts:

Varda (February 26, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h). Grade: B
Comebacker in B. Baffert barn went in company As Time Goes By (5f, :59.2h) and led that one by a couple of lengths early, was put to pressure into the lane and was unable to match strides late while winding up more than a length back at the wire (workmate looked terrific), splits of :11.3, :23.2 and :47.1 for the final half mile. Been away since winning the Starlet S.-G1 in December of 2020, may need a bit more work based on this drill before being dead fit.
View Workout Video

As Time Goes By (February 26, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.2h). Grade: A-
Caught her the final half mile a couple of lengths behind Varda (5f, 1:00h) down the backside but then catching up with that one and going by quickly in the final furlong with an impressive display of late speed, final half mile on our watches in :23.1 and :46.4, mostly on her own. Couldn’t have looked better; fresh from a 13-length romp in the La Canada S.-G3.
View Workout Video

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RACE 10: Post: 4:29 PT Grade:
Use (in order of preference): 3-Beyond Brilliant; 4-Count Again; 8-Space Traveller

Forecast: The Frank E. Kilroe Mile-G1 is a good gambling affair that offers a 12-runner lineup and several possibilities at decent prices. Beyond Brilliant, (TOC=4-1; ML=8-1) winner of the Hollywood Derby-G1 at Del Mar last November and then beaten a half-length in the off-the-turf Mathis Bros. Mile-G2 in late December, returns to his preferred surface, lands a comfortable inside draw, switches to V. Espinoza, and has trained exceptionally well of late to indicate a career top performance may be forthcoming. Most effective on the front end but capable of stalking and pouncing if the situation dictates, the son of Twirling Candy is listed at 8-1 on the morning line and is a play in the win pool at anywhere near that price. He can also be a main punch in rolling exotic play, though we’ll use a couple of others on our ticket for protection. Count Again (TOC=9/2; ML=7/2) is the best of the deep-closing types and is fresh from a sharp win in the Thunder Road S.-G3 over this course and distance last month. He’ll need good racing luck and some help up front to have his best chance but as a relatively lightly-raced seven year old gelding (five wins in 14 starts) and with F. Prat in the saddle he’s the one to fear most. Florida invader Space Traveller (TOC=6-1; ML=5-1) was an unlucky third in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational-G1 last time out when he finished strongly after being too far back early. A repeat of that race with clear sailing makes him quite dangerous at 5-1 on the morning line.

Notable Workouts:

Subconscious (February 26, Santa Anita, 5f, 100.3h). Grade: B
In blinkers, slightly best at the wire outside Laforgia (5f, 1:01h) for Mandella, final three furlongs in :11.2 and :35.2, nice drill for a grass specialist on dirt. Missed at 3/5 in Thunder Road S.-G3 after stumbling at the start, can do better with a cleaner start.
View Workout Video

Beyond Brilliant (February 278, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.2h). Grade: B
Easy solo main track breeze, splits of :12.2, :24.2 and :49.2, sharp throughout. Freshened since late December, looks eager and fit, needs the lead for his best chance in the afternoon.
View Workout Video

Count Again (February 27, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.1h TT). Grade: B+
In blinkers, broke off seven lengths behind Flintmore (5f, 1:00.3h TT) and made up the margin through the lane to be a head back at the wire, neither one asked much in the final furlong, splits of :23.2 and :46.3 for the final half mile for ‘Again. Seven year old gelding has had only 14 career starts, so he’s fresh and still with room for a bit of improvement.
View Workout Video

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RACE 11: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B+
Single: 6-Express Train

Forecast: Express Train (TOC=3/2; ML=8/5) was a sharp runner-up in the 2021 Santa Anita Handicap-G1 and this genuine and consistent 5-yerar-old appears every bit as good now as then, having won both the San Antonio S.-G2 and the San Pasqual S.-G2 leading up to this year’s Big ‘Cap. This is not a particularly strong field for this type of race, so we’re expecting the J. Shirreffs-trained horse to justify his high weight of 124 lbs. and his 8/5 morning line favoritism with a good stalking trip in a race that projects to have a modest early pace. The son of Union Rags is the ultimate grinder and will be where he needs to be – looming a threat and ready to pounce - when the field turns for home.

Notable Workouts:

Express Train (February 27, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.4h). Grade: B+
Probably went faster than given while appearing extra sharp in easy solo breeze while gearing up for Big ‘Cap, final half mile under a nice hold throughout in :23.3 and :47.4. Maintains his top form.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-05-2022, 02:37 PM

Jeff Siegel's Gulfstream Analysis/Workout Commentary-3/15/22

March 4, 2022

“What You Need to Know” – Gulfstream Park
By Jeff Siegel, Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.

The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.

Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 12:10 ET Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 12-You’re Killin Me; 4-Twice too Many; 9-Friendly Fella

Forecast: The Saturday opener is a Florida-bred optional claimer at seven furlongs. You’re Killin Me just won fairly convincingly over a mile at this condition, was claimed for $12,500 by M. Maker, and returns in the same spot while again being offered for that price. Normally, one might be suspicious of recent winner not being protected on the raise by his new connections but when the purse is $54,000 most claiming outfits will gladly take the quick profit even if they’re conceding the likelihood that the horse will get claimed. Comfortably drawn outside, the veteran gelding – a winner of 13 races in his career – should have clear sailing and every chance from a mid-pack early position to wear down the leaders in the final furlong. Twice too Many switches to L. Saez, gets an extra furlong to work with, and could make his presence felt late. However, with just one career win along with eight seconds and thirds, he’s gained a reputation of usually being a day late and a few lengths short. Toss him in as a back-up or a saver, but that’s all.

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RACE 2: Post: 12:40 ET Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 11-Falconet; 6-Veterans Highway

Forecast: Falconet was impressive in a series of workouts last summer at Saratoga but never made it to the post. We haven’t seen much of her on video this winter at Palm Beach Downs other than a breezing team drill in mid-January, but the T. Pletcher-trained debut runners at Gulfstream Park always deserve close conditions and this daughter of Uncle Mo should be plenty fit for a major effort in a stronger-than-average extended sprint for 3-year-olds. She’s the lukewarm 7/2 morning line favorite in a field loaded with possibilities. Veterans Highway has the benefit of a prior run, a second place finish a couple of month ago in a race that produced a next out Tampa Bay Downs winner but otherwise was a modest affair that was assigned a soft speed figure. You can use her on a ticket or two for protection, but the main push should go to Falconet.

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RACE 3: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: X
Use (In order of preference): 2-Never Surprised, 7-Mouillage

Forecast: Never Surprised was admirable in defeat when a close second to his high-class stable mate Colonel Liam in the Pegasus World Cup Turf-G1 here in late January while earning a career top speed figure. Nothing more will be needed in today’s Canadian Turf S.-G3 to get back on the winning track. The son of Constitution has established his preferred style as a devout front-runner and should be quick enough to make the pace from his comfortable two-hole post and then have his chance to dominate gate-to-wire. The one he’ll have to worry about is the European shipper, Mouillage. A listed stakes winner and Group-3-placed while finishing first or second in nine of 11 starts, the C. Brown-trained colt has looked extra sharp in his breezes leading up to his North American barn and must be considered dangerous considering his winning connections. Preference on top goes to the obvious short-priced favorite Never Surprised but we’ll have Mouillage on a few tickets as a backup.

Notable Workouts:

Mouillage (February 25, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4b). Grade: B+
Even but best with Kalifornia Queen (same time) for C. Brown while under a hammerlock through the lane, final quarter (no dogs) in :24.2. Was a stakes winner in France last time out in September and looks very comfortable over firm footing. Good sort, for sure.
View Workout Video

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RACE 4: Post: 1:40 ET Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference: 11-Felix; 1-Particular; 7-Creative Minister

Forecast: Here is a replica of today’s second race, this one for the boys, and requires considerable coverage, as much as your budget allows. Felix was very well-meant in his debut in December but settled for second after cutting out wicked fractions behind the talented Dean’s List in a fast, highly-rated race. He shows a gap in his work pattern of 20 days since in late January but the son of Cupid switches to L. Saez, gets Lasix, and sports a :59 4/5 five furlong bullet drill Feb. 11 to indicate he has all of his speed. Additionally, the R. Nicks barn sports terrific stats with layoff runners and with the second-time starter angle. Particular flashed good gate zip to lead the way into the lane before winding up second (beaten four lengths) in a promising debut run here in early January and hails from the high percentage S. Joseph, Jr., outfit, which hits at an astounding 30 percent with second-timers. If the son of Classic Empire breaks cleanly from the rail, he could take this field a very long way on the front end. Among the newcomers, Creative Minister certainly caught the eye when breezing five furlongs in :58 3/5 in company and appearing best with Grade-1 winner (and Fountain of Youth S. entrant) Rattle and Roll last week. The barn doesn’t have a great win percentage with first-time starters but this colt is 15-1 on the morning line and would we’d have to think he’s better than that.

Notable Workouts:

Particular (February 26, Palm Meadows, 4f, :47.1b). Grade: B+
Lathered up but went nicely in sharp half mile drill while a half-length best over Cape Trafalgar (same time) for S. Joseph, Jr while coming the final quarter mile in :24.1 under very mild coaxing. Displayed promise in his debut in a hot maiden race in early January and seems likely to move forward with that bit of experience behind him.
View Workout Video

Creative Minister (February 26, Gulfstream Park, 5f, :58.3b). Grade: B+
Mild late coaxing while inside Rattle N Roll (same time) for McPeek, final half mile in :22.4 and :46.3, impressive for an unraced maiden in company with a Grade-1 winner (and looking a tad the best as well). Sophomore son of Creative Cause appears to have plenty of talent and is worth a look in a maiden special weight event, for sure.
View Workout Video

Felix (February 20, Gulfstream Park, 5f, 1:02.3b). Grade: B
Breezing in easy five furlong solo drill for Hicks, plenty left through the lane, final quarter in :24 flat. Displayed promise in debut and should produce a forward move next time, out.
View Workout Video

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RACE 5: Post: 2:10 PT Grade: B+
Single: 5-Virginia Joy

Forecast: The Very One S.-G3 over the mini-marathon distance of 11 furlongs on grass looks ideal for Virginia Joy, the 2-1 morning line favorite and a rolling exotic single on our ticket. The German-bred mare, away since last summer, won her U.S. debut following a 13 month vacation so we know she can fire fresh, and a recent bullet workout (5f, 1:00.4b) at Payson Park gives strong indication that she’s fit and ready. Reunited with “win rider” I. Ortiz, Jr., the C. Brown-trained mare projects to settle in the second flight and then be turned loose when ready. The graded stakes winning five-year-old is listed at 2-1 on the morning line and offers good wagering value at that price, if you can get.

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RACE 6: Post: 2:40 ET Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 1-Kathleen O.; 4-Outfoxed; 3-Girl With a Dream; 2-Classy Edition

Forecast: This year’s edition of the Davona Dale S.-G2 for 3-year-old fillies is a powerful event with several high-quality contenders. Undefeated Kathleen O. was shut off and apparently eliminated at the start in the recent Cash Run S. over this track and distance on New Year’s Day but miraculously recovered and produced a scintillating late kick to win going away by more than eight lengths while verifying the favorable impression she made when graduating at first asking from far off the pace at Aqueduct in November. This a much tougher assignment, but she could easily be up to the task, rail post and all, if she can leave with her field and secure a reasonable mid-pack early position. She shows a strong and healthy work tab since raced, so at 9/2 on the morning line we’ll put her on top. The multiple Florida-bred stakes winner Outfoxed made hard work of it when winning a listed stakes race at Tampa Bay Downs in her sophomore debut in mid-January in her first outing since last fall. Like Kathleen O., she’ll need to step it up today against this deeper group but she has an ideal second flight, stalking style for this one-turn mile distance and could easily have it in her. Girl With a Dream may be able to inherit the role as the controlling speed, just as she did when winning the Forward Gal S.-G3 here last month. The victory earned a career top speed figure, so if she can clear the field early without being sent the Fair Grounds-based daughter of Practical Joke will be dangerous at 5-1 on the morning line. Let’s not forget about the T. Pletcher-trained Classy Edition, perfect in three starts vs. New York-bred foes as a juvenile, makes her sophomore debut following a sharp series of drills at Palm Beach Downs. Today she tackles open company, but on pure numbers she’s a fit and a “must use” in rolling exotic play.

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RACE 7: Post: 3:10 ET Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 6-Royal Spirit; 2-Coinage

Forecast: The second and third place finishers in the recent Kitten’s Joy S. hook up again in the listed Palm Beach S. and are the main players in this one mile turf event for 3-year-olds. In that last race, Royal Spirit stalked the pace to the head of the lane, gained the lead in deep stretch but just failed to hold when going down by a neck to the late-charging Grand Sonata. With ‘Sonata sitting this one out, ‘Spirit looks tough, though the third place finisher in that event, Coinage, seems likely to produce a forward move after making the running and then weakening late in his first start since November. The M. Casse-trained Coinage is favorably drawn in the two-hole and seems certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics again, so if he is fitter in this race than he was last time out the son of Tapit could make the running and never look back. These two are difficult to split, so we’ll include both in rolling exotic play while maybe giving Royal Spirit a very slight edge on top.

Notable Workouts:

Coinage (February 18, Palm Meadows, 4f, :47.4b TC DU). Grade: B+
Washy, but looked sharp in solo half mile breeze around dogs on grass, cruise control throughout. May have been a tad short in Kitten’s Joy when worn down late as the favorite but seems likely to step forward next time.
View Workout Video

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RACE 8: Post: 3:40 ET Grade: B+
Single: 4-Prevalence

Forecast: Let’s take a gamble on Prevalence at 8-1 on the morning line in this second-level allowance one-turn miler for older horses. Once highly-regarded after winning his first two starts over the local main track like a potential Derby prospect last year, the son of Medaglia d’Oro went sour and was stopped on before returning in an extended sprint at this level last month. The B. Walsh-trained colt finished a non-threatening fifth, but didn’t break well, raced in traffic, and then found his best stride too late in a performance that was much better than the line will show. With that tightener behind him and with an extra furlong to work with today, we’re expecting this lightly-raced and talented colt to step forward in a major way as a win play and rolling exotic single.

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RACE 9: Post: 4:10 ET Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 3-Jouster; 7-Alms; 8-Wakanaka

Forecast: This year’s renewal of the Honey Fox S.-G3 over a mile on grass for fillies and mares is an extremely challenging affair, with several legitimate possibilities to consider. We’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough. Jouster is a need-the-lead type, and when she is able to establish the pace without having to set fast fractions she can be very difficult to run down. Away since July but training better than she ever has for T. Pletcher, the daughter of Noble Mission has won off a layoff in the past, so the possibility exists for a career top effort. At 9/2 on the morning line, we’ll put her on top. Alms, an excellent runner-up at 19-1 in the Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf-G3 over the local lawn last month that produced a career top speed figure, projects to enjoy a second flight, stalking trip and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. It’s been awhile since she’s won but a repeat of her last race could easily be good enough. Wakanaka was a quality performer in Italy prior to importation and ran like she needed the race when sixth, beaten five lengths, in the same race that Alms just finished second in. She switches to J. Ortiz and seems likely to produce a significant forward move, and a 6-1 on the morning line offers reasonable value.

Notable Workouts:

Jouster (February 12, Palm Beach Downs, 5f, 1:01.1b). Grade: A-
Sharp, eager, and full of run in solo move for T. Pletcher, :48.1 on our watches from the half mile pole to the wire while under a tight hold every step of the way. Away since last July but appear to be returning in peak form and has won off a long layoff in the past.
View Workout Video

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RACE 10: Post: 4:40 ET Grade: B
Use (In order of preference): 3-Speaker’s Corner; 4-Fearless

Forecast: Even so though there’s a negative six pound weight shift he must deal with compared with main rival Fearless, Speaker’s Corner should be capable of winning right back at the same track and distance that produced his most recent victory, a visually impressive and highly-rated score in the F. W. Hooper S.-G3 in late January. A winner of four races from seven career starts and with four triple-digit Beyer speed figures already on his resume, the son of Street Sense projects to be on the lead, though he has won from a stalking, second flight position in the past, so regular rider J. Alvarado can assess the early pace flow and pick a strategy. The W. Mott-trained colt shows a strong, heathy work tab since raced, so at 5/2 on the morning line he deserves top billing both in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. Fearless, a four time winner from six starts at Gulfstream Park, is the second choice at 3-1 and deserves consideration. Second without mishap in the Hooper, the son of Ghostzapper has a chance to turn the tables with the weight-break in his favor and would have his chances increase if a faster-than-par early pace materializes.

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RACE 11: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: X
Single: 1-Abaan

Forecast: Abaan has really blossomed since being transferred to grass and he keeps improving with every start. A winner of four of his last five, three of which were accomplished over marathon trips, the son of Will Take Charge is listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite in 2022 running of the Mac Diarmida S.-G2 over 11 furlongs, and from his highly favorable rail draw can dominate this field on the front end or from a stalking position, whichever is required. Regardless of the race flow, we’re anticipate the T. Pletcher-trained gelding to justify what surely will be a short price as a win play and rolling exotic single.

Notable Workouts:

Abaan (February 12, Palm Beach Downs, 4f, :48.4hb). Grade: B
Final three furlongs in :36 flat, just galloping along, never asked, while maintaining his edge. Turf specialist gets over the dirt just fine though he’s clearly most effective on the lawn. Ready for another major effort.
View Workout Video

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RACE 12: Post: 5:40 ET Grade: B
Use (In order of preference): 8-Emmanuel; 4-In Due Time; 2-Simplification

Forecast: Mo Donegal, the expected race favorite in this year’s renewal of the Fountain of Youth S.-G2, was withdrawn a couple of days ago when he came down with a fever, a tough break for the colt and his connections as well as the gambler who thought he was vulnerable and wished he would have been able to stay in the field and siphon some money. With or without him in the lineup, we would have favored Emmanuel, and obviously still do. Unbeaten in two starts while visually very impressive in both outings, the son of More Than Ready tackles a much stronger group of 3-year-olds than he’s seen so far, but we’re expecting the T. Pletcher-trained colt to be up to the task. Part of the pace in his first two starts, he might not be quick enough to make the running in a middle distance event loaded with front-running types, but we don’t expect him to be inconvenienced from a second flight, stalking position, so as long as he leaves with his field and is within striking range throughout, he should be just fine. In Due Time pulverized a first-level allowance field at a one turn mile last month like a colt with a very high ceiling and based on pure numbers the son of Not This Time should be a major factor throughout. His pedigree suggests that this stretch-out in trip will be to his liking. Simplification overcame a poor start to rally late and finish an excellent second in the Holy Bull S.-G3 over this track and distance last month and today he could return to his pace-pressing style, though he won’t be getting any breathers if Markhamian is gunned to front from the rail, as expected. Today we’ll find out if the A. Sano-trained colt is a legitimate player for the spring classics.

Notable Workouts:

Simplification (February 19, Gulfstream Park, 5f, :58.3b). Grade: B
Rough changing leads (not unusual for him) but finished under a nice hold while showing his speed throughout, final quarter mile in :24.1. Likely to be close to the pace if not on the lead in the Fountain of Youth after breaking slowly in the Holy Bull S. last time out.
View Workout Video

In Due Time (February 18, Palm Meadows, 5f, :59.3b). Grade: B-
Was ridden and shown the stick through the lane, final quarter mile in :24.2. Good move but was asked fairly aggressively in the final furlong. Certainly wasn’t breezing.
View Workout Video

Rattle N Roll (February 26, Gulfstream Park, 5f, :58.3b). Grade: B
Worked outside maiden Creative Minister (same time) and was maybe a head back at the wire under mild late coaxing, final half mile in :22.4 and :46.3. Was a bit washy and had to be asked a little bit more than workmate but still earned fast closing. Might need a race to be 100 percent fit.
View Workout Video

Emmanuel (February 26, Palm Beach Downs, 4f, :48b). Grade: B+
Easy half mile breeze inside Mustasaabeq (same time) for T. Pletcher, splits of :25 flat and :48.2 on our watches, coasting to the wire and then finishing very well through the lane before being allowed to gallop out strongly all the out to the original starting point. Big, strong colt with plenty of scope and power gets a class test in the Fountain of Youth S.-G2 and is approaching the race just right.
View Workout Video

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RACE 13: Post: 6:12 PT Grade: B
Use (In order of preference): 4-Spendarella; 2-Mischievous Kiss; 8-Opalina; 3-Diamond Wow

Forecast: This is a much stronger than average edition of the Herecomesthebride S.-G3 for 3-year-olds and it will take a pretty good filly to win it. Spendarella looks very much like a good one, indeed. The G. Motion-trained sophomore performed like a veteran when winning at first asking, leaving sharply from the gate to press the pace, switching off midway, and then re-breaking when asked entering the lane to draw away with complete authority while earning a nice number. She has trained impressively since that outing, so we’re expecting the daughter of Karakontie to produce a significant forward move, one that makes her capable of winning right back at 6-1 on the morning line. We’ll certainly play her at the price in the win pool, but in rolling exotic play with go deeper to cover all of the bases. Mischievous Kiss was a stakes winner routing on grass as a 2-year-old and returns for a stable that has superlative stats with layoff runners. Drawn comfortably inside, the daughter of Into Mischief projects to settle in a second flight, ground-saving position and then have her chance when the pressure is turned on. Opalina is fresh from a win in the Sweetest Chant S.-G3 over the local lawn last month and looks tough right back. She’s not overwhelmingly fast on speed figures but is tough, dependable, and experienced and will be bearing down from the quarter pole home. Diamond Wow has plenty of talent but was far below form in her recent comeback sprinting on dirt in the Forward Gal S.-G3. She’s back on her preferred surface, stretches out to a distance she can handle, and adds blinkers, so at 8-1 on the morning line we’ll find a spot for her on our rolling exotic ticket.

Notable Workouts:

Diamond Wow (February 25, Palm Meadows, 6f, 1:13b TC). Grade: B+
No dogs, in blinkers, broke off behind Pretty Provocative (6f, 1:13.3b TC) and stalked that one to the top of the lane before going by easily without ever being asked, final quarter mile in :24.1 with a ton left. Better mover on grass than dirt and should produce a significant forward move when returned to the lawn.
View Workout Video

Spendarella (February 27, Palm Meadows, 5f, 1:00.1b TC). Grade: A-
No dogs, in company inside Bipartisanship (same time) for G. Motion and looked terrific under a strong hold to breezing to the wire and appearing best by almost a length, full of run throughout, final quarter mile in :24.1. Won at first asking in good style and trained impressively since. High quality prospect.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-05-2022, 02:37 PM

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-05-2022, 02:38 PM

Race of the Week: Santa Anita Handicap | Saturday, March 5, 2022

March 2, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
The tradition-rich Big 'Cap will be the grand finale to a 15-stakes 1/ST Saturday in March extravaganza at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita. The mile and one-quarter feature goes as Race 11 and anchors a trio of consecutive G1 stakes, preceded by the Beholder Mile on dirt and the Kilroe Mile on turf. The Santa Anita Handicap offers 1/ST BET and Xpressbet customers up to a $10 money-back guarantee on win bets if your selection finishes second or third. It also anchors a 12% takeout ($1 minimum) all-dirt pick five that mixes stakes at Gulfstream and Santa Anita.

Field Depth:
EXPRESS TRAIN is a G2 winner and runner-up in this G1 headliner a year ago. SPIELBERG and KISS TODAY GOODBYE also are G2 winners. WARRANT is a G3 winner, while STILLETO BOY is multiple G1-placed. STILLETO BOY has held the strongest recent company lines, while EXPRESS TRAIN and KISS TODAY GOODBYE are familiar foes in California's top handicap division stakes.

Pace:
AMERICAN THEOREM would be the pacemaker here if his connections opt for the Big 'Cap over the 7-furlong San Carlos, a race he's cross-entered. There's not a confirmed early burner. STILLETO BOY and WHY WHY PAUL WHY also have the potential to set the tempo. Deep closers appear compromised by this race shape.

Our Eyes:
EXPRESS TRAIN just missed by a half-length in this race last year in what has to be considered a much tougher renewal, book-ended in the results by Idol and Maxfield. He's arguably a better horse now than in 2021 at the time, fresh off wins in the G2 San Antonio and G2 San Pasqual on the Big 'Cap prep path. He'll give 3-8 pounds to his competition and has failed to slam the door late in 3 previous 10-furlong tries. But note the rest of this field has but 2 off-the-board finishes in as many attempts at the distance. He's clearly the horse to beat; but the distance at least cracks the door open. EXPRESS TRAIN has looked strong in his training at XBTV.com.

STILLETO BOY should enjoy himself in the paddock, looking around and not seeing some of the buzzsaws he's run up against in the last several months. But after 54-1, 51-1, 19-1 and 26-1 over-achievements, can you swallow something less than 5-1 on him Saturday? After all, he's still eligible for a non-winners of 3 lifetime condition and has not won a graded stakes in 5 tries. John Velazquez takes the mount, and that's absolutely a plus.

WHY WHY PAUL WHY and WARRANT are the shippers to consider. The former has looked strong working on video for his first start since coming to reputable trainer Michael McCarthy. The former $30,000 claim should be in contention throughout with a ground-saving run. WARRANT won last year's G3 Oklahoma Derby for Brad Cox and last out was a distant third behind Saudi Cup-bound Mandaloun and Midnight Bourbon. He broke his maiden in his second start of the form cycle and likely will improve off his Jan. 22 try at Fair Grounds. Flavien Prat takes the call to complete formidable connections.

As for the others: SPIELBERG is 0-4 in stakes since his 2YO season and couldn't keep up late with EXPRESS TRAIN last month. The extra distance would not appear a benefit, though he's bred for it. KISS TODAY GOODBYE, sixth in this race last year, has gone off form and was no match for the favorite in his last 2.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
EXPRESS TRAIN is 8-9 in the trifecta on dirt at Santa Anita and just missed in this race last year vs. tougher.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
SOY TAPATIO looked very good in a gate workout Feb. 12 for this and has won 2 straight. We don't know his ceiling compared to some of these veterans, though pedigree might cloud his ability over this trip.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
Let's try to maneuver around STILLETO BOY and find exacta value elsewhere. $40 exacta part-wheel EXPRESS TRAIN over WHY WHY PAUL WHY and WARRANT ($80); $20 exacta part-wheel EXPRESS TRAIN over SOY TAPATIO.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-05-2022, 02:38 PM

Handicappers' GPS: Guide to Santa Anita | Saturday, March 5, 2022

March 2, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

We dial in your daily guide to 1/ST BET and Xpressbet promotions, along with pertinent handicapping hints as you plan your attack. Saturday's 11-race Santa Anita Park card is co-host to the inaugural 1/ST Saturday in March, which also joins key stakes races at Gulfstream Park in featured pick five wagers.

Race 1 (3:00 PM ET) // allowance // 6-1/2 furlongs (downhill turf)
Up to a $10 money-back special on win bets if they finish second or third.
Santa Anita early pick five begins.

Handicapping Hint: 13 entered in what might be considered another chaotic turf sprint. But Gold Phoenix figures a solid favorite off a troubled, narrow defeat in his US unveiling for Flavien Prat and Phil D’Amato. Prat is winning 42% with favorites at the meet. Once you get past that contender, the rest look very similar, thus, creating a classic ‘single or spread’ situation in the multi-race bets.

Race 2 (3:30 PM ET) // maiden special weight // 6 furlongs
$2500 Santa Anita early pick four hit-and-split begins

Handicapping Hint: 7 entered, but there’s but a single past performance line among the entire field. XBTV’s free video workout library is a must for this event. $1.7 million purchase Taiba drilled a furlong in :10-1/5 last March to lure a big pricetag and the Bob Baffert trainee will take a ton of money on the tote. Baffert and John Velazquez are 15: 11-1-1 at the meet when favored. It’s likely that simple.

Race 3 (4:00 PM ET) // starter allowance // 5-1/2 furlongs (turf)

Handicapping Hint: 8 entered and favorites have won 43% at the meet in turf sprints with fields of 8 or less. There’s less traffic and pace pressure the smaller the field, allowing the best horse to shine. This race doesn’t have an obvious favorite on paper.

Race 4 (4:30 PM ET) // G2 San Carlos Stakes // 7 furlongs
Coast to Coast all-dirt stakes pick five begins; get up to a $10 free bet when you play this wager with 1/ST BET or Xpressbet.
Up to a $10 money-back special on win bets if they finish second or third.

Handicapping Hint: 9 entered, including Santa Anita specialist Brickyard Road (8-11 locally on dirt) and beaten, odds-on G3 Palos Verdes favorite Cezanne. They figure to be the biggest threats early and late. Eight Rings and Shooters Shoot give this race depth.

Race 5 (5:00 PM ET) // G2 Buena Vista Stakes // 1 mile (turf)
Part of the special Coast to Coast all-turf stakes pick five.

Handicapping Hint: 11 entered with west coast distaff turf stalwarts Going to Vegas and Mucho Unusual both cutting back in distance. The latter was runner-up in this race a year ago. Canooding comes off a 22-1 upset in the G3 Megahertz on Jan. 29, indicating this local division’s volatility. Keeper of Time comes west from Gulfstream to try and take advantage.

Race 6 (5:30 PM ET) // G2 San Felipe // 1-1/16 miles
Part of the special Coast to Coast all-dirt stakes pick five.
Santa Anita Jackpot Rainbow 6 begins.

Handicapping Hint: 7 entered, featuring the brilliantly fast sprinter Forbidden Kingdom in his first route attempt. Stablemates Armagnac and Doppelganger have been morning workmates and worthy of a video review free at XBTV.com. Cabo Spirit was second-best in the G2 Lewis last out behind Messier, who bypasses this race and awaits the Santa Anita Derby by design. Anything beyond this quartet would trigger huge payoffs intra-race and in the multi-race wagers.

Race 7 (6:00 PM ET) // maiden special weight // 1 mile (turf)
$4000 Santa Anita late pick five hit-and-split begins

Handicapping Hint: 9 entered with only 3 first-time starters, so it’s a group with some form to evaluate. Got Thunder has been beaten favorite at 9-5, 3-5 and 2-5 in his 3 dirt starts and will give turf a go. He is going to be a massive favorite again and the focus of many singles in multi-race bets. If you can find a successful alternative, you will be rewarded.

Race 8 (6:30 PM ET) // allowance // 6-1/2 furlongs (downhill turf)
Up to a $10 money-back special on win bets if they finish second or third.
Santa Anita $6000 late pick four hit-and-split begins.

Handicapping Hint: 13 entered in a fillies and mares version of today’s opening Santa Anita race. This one re-matches multiple horses from Jan. 2 and Jan. 23 races at Santa Anita, thus making for a race where video replay study should be exercised. Honey Jar was beaten favorite in the most recent of those races and probably goes favored again, though vulnerable.

Race 9 (7:00 PM ET) // G1 Beholder Mile // 1 mile

Handicapping Hint: 6 entered, led by As Time Goes By, who won the G3 La Canada in preparation for this by more than 13 lengths. She was second in this race last year to the star East/Midwest filly Swiss Skydiver, whose trainer Kenny McPeek will try for a return strike via Envoutante this time. The Beholder Mile should run through these two. Wildcard G1-winning juvenile of 2020 Varda returns from 15 months on the sidelines.

Race 10 (7:30 PM ET) // G1 Kilroe Mile // 1 mile (turf)
Part of the special Coast to Coast all-turf stakes pick five.

Handicapping Hint: 12 entered, an extremely familiar cast of turf milers that collectively dance nearly all the dances and take turns. Space Traveler, Flavius and Tell Your Daddy travel west to add to the already difficult puzzle. Pre-race looks may be the separator as to whom is ready to rock on this day, so pay attention to any visual clues. This is the kind of race you could be 5-deep in multi-race bets and still popping antacids until it is posted ‘official.’

Race 11 (8:00 PM ET) // G1 Santa Anita Handicap // 1-1/4 miles
Up to a $10 money-back special on win bets if they finish second or third.
Part of the special Coast to Coast all-dirt stakes pick five.

Handicapping Hint: 8 entered the Big ‘Cap and its clear the locals this winter are led by Express Train, winner of the G2 San Antonio and G3 San Pasqual as he tried to one-up his second-place finish in this race from 2021. Stilleto Boy has faced the very best horses of the past year in his last 4 starts – Medina Spirit, Knicks Go, Flightline and Life Is Good the winners in that fabulous group. Eastern transplant Why Why Paul Why and New Orleans-based Warrant for Brad Cox are the wildcards. Only of these 8 have tried the 1-1/4 miles distance, combining for a 5: 0-1-1 record. Find the final-furlong survivor.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-05-2022, 02:38 PM

Handicappers' GPS: Guide to Gulfstream | Saturday, March 5, 2022

March 2, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

We dial in your daily guide to 1/ST BET and Xpressbet promotions, along with pertinent handicapping hints as you plan your attack. Saturday's 13-race Gulfstream Park card is co-host to the inaugural 1/ST Saturday in March, which also joins key stakes races at Santa Anita in featured pick five wagers.

Race 1 (12:10 PM ET) // allowance-optional claiming // 7 furlongs
Gulfstream early pick five begins.

Handicapping Hint: 12 entered, including several familiar foes that have repeatedly faced one another. The 1-2-3 finishers from Feb. 10 Race 8 re-match, a good opportunity for video study. You’re Killing Me looks for a repeat, claimed last out by the recently hot Mike Maker barn.

Race 2 (12:40 PM ET) // maiden special weight // 7 furlongs
$2500 Gulfstream early pick four hit-and-split begins.
Up to a $10 money-back special on win bets if they finish second or third.

Handicapping Hint: 15 entered, while only 3 in the main body of 12 runners has ever made a start. Utilize the free XBTV workout video library for more study. Rookies from Brown, Pletcher, Mott and McGaughey will be interesting to follow on the toteboard. Eyeball pre-race looks and paddock commentary as well.

Race 3 (1:10 PM ET) // G3 Canadian Turf // 1-1/16 miles (turf)
Free to play $5 million Pick 15 Sweepstakes begins.

Handicapping Hint: 7 entered, topped by likely heavy favorite Never Surprised, last seen second in the G1 Pegasus World Cup Turf. Unless French export Mouillage is the goods for Chad Brown in his first start since September, Never Surprised will be a single on many early pick four/pick five tickets.

Race 4 (1:40 PM ET) // maiden special weight // 7 furlongs

Handicapping Hint: 16 entered in the colts’ counterpart to Race 2. Half of the 12 in the main body of the field will be making career debuts. This race is loaded with regal pedigrees, big barns and potential. Utilize the free XBTV workout video database for more study. Eyeball pre-race looks and paddock commentary as well as the tote.

Race 5 (2:10 PM ET) // G3 The Very One Stakes // 1-3/8 miles (turf)
Up to a $10 money-back special on win bets if they finish second or third.

Handicapping Hint: 9 entered, featuring a 1-2 rematch from the Jan. 29 G3 La Prevoyante Stakes. Beautiful Lover and Sorrel were separated by only a head in that one over a furlong farther in distance. Fresh faces to the cast look to provide highly legitimate opposition.

Race 6 (2:40 PM ET) // G2 Davona Dale Stakes // 1 mile

Handicapping Hint: 7 entered in which 4 runners enter off of at least 2-race winning streaks. Girl With A Dream has the most recent of those scores and fastest in terms of speed figures, but it’s uncertain whom will go favored. Nearly all of these will be meeting for the first time.

Race 7 (3:10 PM ET) // Palm Beach Stakes // 1 mile (turf)
Coast to Coast all-turf stakes pick five begins; get up to a $10 free bet when you play this wager with 1/ST BET or Xpressbet

Handicapping Hint: 9 entered as Feb. 5 G3 Kitten’s Joy Stakes narrow runner-up Royal Spirit figures to be solidly favored with a rider change to Irad Ortiz Jr. for Todd Pletcher. He’ll be singled on a lot of Coast to Coast all-turf stakes pick five tickets. Beat him and the ticket payoff jumps.

Race 8 (3:40 PM ET)
Up to a $10 money-back special on win bets if they finish second or third.
Gulfstream Jackpot Rainbow 6 begins.

Handicapping Hint: 10 entered and all eyes will be on the return of Triple Crown winner Justify’s younger half-brother Stage Raider. XBTV’s free video workout library has 5 of his morning drills catalogued to view, important since he’s been away since last May. The big-name field includes last year’s Florida Derby runner-up Soup and Sandwich as well as ’21 Championship Meet steam sophomore Prevalence. Both name players are looking to bounce back off disappointing runs.

Race 9 (4:10 PM ET) // G3 Honey Fox Stakes // 1 mile (turf)
$4000 Gulfstream late pick five hit-and-split begins.
Part of the special Coast to Coast all-turf stakes pick five.

Handicapping Hint: 11 entered with a very interesting, and fast, early pace situation potentially to unfold. Spend some time watching race replays on these, including a quartet exiting the inaugural G3 Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

Race 10 (4:40 PM ET) // G2 Gulfstream Park Mile // 1 mile
$6000 Gulfstream late pick four hit-and-split begins.
Part of the special Coast to Coast all-dirt stakes pick five.

Handicapping Hint: 9 entered, featuring a 1-2 rematch of the G3 Fred W. Hooper, where Speaker’s Corner went wire to wire and turned away the rally of favorite Fearless. The early speed of fresh face Injunction and the come-backing Ny Traffic could change the pace dynamics.

Race 11 (5:10 PM ET) // G2 Mac Diarmida Stakes // 1-3/8 miles (turf)

Handicapping Hint: 11 entered, but only 2 trainers represent 8 of the contenders – Mike Maker (5) and Todd Pletcher (3). Pletcher’s front-running Abaan will benefit from the rail with the start close to the far turn. Maker’s Temple and Media Blitz were 2-3 trying to catch him to no avail last time at a furlong farther in distance. Abaan was 3-2 favorite in the McKnight and likely similar, if not shorter, here.

Race 12 (5:42 PM ET) // G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes // 1-1/16 miles
Up to a $10 money-back special on win bets if they finish second or third.
Part of the special Coast to Coast all-dirt stakes pick five.

Handicapping Hint: 12 entered, and with the announced scratch of original morning line favorite Mo Donegal, Galt is expected to join the field. Simplification is beautifully drawn after his troubled start, but solid-finishing, Holy Bull runner-up. A strong expected pace could favor Rattle N Roll late, making his 3-year-old debut. Emmanuel may go favored off his impressive wins vs. lesser. Several good options abound. Utilize the free XBTV workout video library for more study.

Race 13 (6:12 PM ET) // G3 Herecomesthebride Stakes // 1 mile (turf)
Part of the special Coast to Coast all-turf stakes pick five.

Handicapping Hint: 13 entered with on obvious favorite. Lia Marina and Opalina exit stakes wins at the meet, but 1/2-length and 3/4-length margins in those victories make this look competitive. This race anchors all the late-day Gulfstream multi-race wagers and appears wide open. If you can narrow the field and have a strong opinion, it’s the kind of race that could separate you from the betting pack in ticket construction.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-05-2022, 02:39 PM

1/ST Saturday in March: Gulfstream/Santa Anita Post Draw Reaction

February 28, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita jointly present the 1/ST Saturday in March with 15 stakes races slated to be run at the two iconic racetracks. It’s Fountain of Youth Day in South Florida, while it’s Big ‘Cap Day in Southern California. The two stuffed undercards fill out a mega stakes lineup that should prove to be one of the most exciting racing days of 2022. Entries were drawn for both full cards Monday.

Horseplayers on the 1/ST BET and Xpressbet platforms can take advantage of several 1/ST Saturday in March wagering promotions, including up to a $10 free bet on both the all-dirt Coast to Coast stakes pick five and the all-turf stakes Coast to Coast pick five (each featuring a low 12% takeout and $1 minimum). Fans can also enter the 1/ST Saturday in March free sweepstakes, where if you’re lucky enough to pick all 15 stakes winners, you could earn a life-changing, $5 million payday.

Gulfstream’s nine 1/ST Saturday in March stakes include a field of 12 (with an also-eligible) for the Grade 2 $400,000 Fountain of Youth, featuring Triple Crown hopefuls Rattle N Roll and the unbeaten Emmanuel. The Fountain of Youth pace looks to be rapid with key speed contenders drawing to the inside. Saturday’s Gulfstream undercard highlights feature eight runners in the Grade 2 $200,000 Gulfstream Park Mile (Speaker’s Corner and Fearless re-matched) and 11 entrants in the Grade 2 $200,000 Mac Diarmida on turf (led by eight contenders from trainers Mike Maker and Todd Pletcher).

Santa Anita’s six 1/ST Saturday in March stakes include the Grade 1 $650,000 Santa Anita Handicap, where last year’s runner-up Express Train leads a field of eight as he seeks a third straight victory. The Grade 2 $400,000 San Felipe for Triple Crown aspirants lured San Vicente-winning speedster Forbidden Kingdom among a field of seven. The Grade 1 $500,000 Beholder Mile, featuring Evoutante and As Time Goes By, as well as the Grade 1 $500,000 Kilroe Mile, which boasts a big field of 12, provide a rousing supporting lineup.

CNBC will broadcast the 1/ST Saturday in March in a two-hour program from 4-6 pm ET. Nick Luck will be onsite at Gulfstream, while 1/ST BET handicapper Eddie Olczyk highlights the coverage from Santa Anita.

Saturday // March 5 // Gulfstream Park // Grade 2 $400,000 Fountain of Youth // Race 12 // 5:42 PM ET
1. Markhamian // Marcos Meneses // Juan Avila
2. Simplification // Jose Ortiz // Antonio Sano
3. Howling Time // Joe Talamo // Dale Romans
4. In Due Time // Paco Lopez // Kelly Breen
5. Dean Delivers // Miguel Vasquez // Michael Yates
6. Rattle N Roll // Brian Hernandez Jr. // Kenny McPeek
7. A.P.’s Secret // Tyler Gaffalione // Saffie Joseph Jr.
8. Emmanuel // Luis Saez // Todd Pletcher
9. High Oak // Junior Alvarado // Bill Mott
10. Giant Game // Corey Lanerie // Dale Romans
11. O Captain // Javier Castellano // Gustavo Delgado
12. Mo Donegal // Irad Ortiz Jr. // Todd Pletcher
13. (Also Eligible) Galt // Joel Rosario // Bill Mott

//

Saturday // March 5 // Santa Anita Park // Grade 1 $650,000 Santa Anita Handicap // Race 11 // 8:00 PM ET
1. Spielberg // Abel Cedillo // Bob Baffert
2. Why Why Paul Why // Juan Hernandez // Michael McCarthy
3. Warrant // Flavien Prat // Brad Cox
4. Soy Tapatio // Diego Herrera // Doug O’Neill
5. American Theorem // Mike Smith // George Papaprodromou
6. Express Train // Victor Espinoza // John Shirreffs
7. Kiss Today Goodbye // Kyle Frey // Eric Kruljac
8. Stilleto Boy // John Velazquez // Ed Moger Jr.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-05-2022, 02:39 PM

Jon White: A Filly on Derby Top 10, Plus 3YO Stakes Picks

March 2, 2022 | By Jon White

Regret, Genuine Risk, Winning Colors…and Secret Oath?

Could Secret Oath possibly join one of the most exclusive clubs in all of American racing, a club that has just three members, the three fillies to have outrun the boys to win the coveted Kentucky Derby?

Secret Oath doesn’t just debut on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week. She makes a mighty splash, showing up on the list all the way up at No. 2.

Why do I have Secret Oath at No. 2? Because if were making selections for the Kentucky Derby today, she would be my second choice. Messier would my pick to win it. And if Messier wasn’t in the race, my choice to win the roses, if she were in the race, would be Secret Oath.

My Kentucky Derby Top 10 for this week is below:

1. Messier
2. Secret Oath (new)
3. Classic Causeway
4. Emmanuel
5. Smile Happy
6. Epicenter
7. Early Voting
8. Rattle N Roll
9. White Abarrio
10. Simplification

Newgrange drops off my Top 10 this week after finishing off the board in last Saturday’s Grade I Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. He was No. 10 last week.

Actually, I came very close to putting Secret Oath at No. 1 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week. But I decided that Messier still deserves to be at the top of the list off his 15-length tour de force in Santa Anita’s Grade III Robert B. Lewis Stakes last month. In my opinion, that’s the most impressive performance so far this year by a 3-year-old.

Messier was in danger of dropping out of the top spot on my Top 10 this week due to not having a published workout since the Feb. 6 Lewis.

But Messier finally had a workout Monday morning at Santa Anita. He worked four furlongs in :48.60. He worked in company with El Camino Real Derby winner Blackadder, who also was clocked in :48.60. You can view this workout on XBTV: https://www.xbtv.com/video/empire-ma...ary-28th-2022/

Messier, working on the outside, began a half-length or so behind Blackadder. They raced as a team to the finish line, with Messier finishing slightly in front.

It’s particularly noteworthy that official clockers listed the workout by both Messier and Blackadder as “breezing” rather than “handily.”

At Southern California tracks, a workout is rarely listed as breezing. A breezing designation is given when a horse is considered by the official clockers to have worked considerably easier, without any urging at all, than a horse whose workout is termed handily.

Hall of Famer Bob Baffert trains both Messier and Blackadder.

Messier has recorded three wins and two seconds from five career starts. He’s lost twice at Los Alamitos. When racing either at Santa Anita or Del Mar, the Canadian-bred colt by 2003 Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker has won by margins of 6 1/2, 3 1/2 and 15 lengths.

When Messier won the 1 1/16-mile Lewis, he posted a 103 Beyer Speed Figure. It’s the highest Beyer by a 3-year-old in 2022 to date.

Messier is expected to make his next start in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby at 1 1/8 miles on April 9.

Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, who like Baffert is an ex-Quarter Horse trainer, sent out the filly Winning Colors to take the 1988 Santa Anita Derby by 7 1/2 lengths in a sensational performance.

In her next start, Winning Colors was victorious in the Kentucky Derby. She followed in the footsteps of two other fillies to win the Run for the Roses, the great Regret in 1915 and Genuine Risk in 1980.

Secret Oath, a Kentucky-bred daughter of 2016 Eclipse Award-winning 3-year-old male Arrogate, has reeled off three lopsided victories at the current Oaklawn meet. Luis Contreras was in the saddle for all three wins on the Arkansas oval.

After winning a one-mile allowance race by 8 1/4 lengths on Dec. 31, Secret Oath registered a 7 1/4-length victory in the Martha Washington Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on Jan. 29.

In last Saturday’s Grade III Honeybee Stakes, again at 1 1/16 miles, Secret Oath was steadied midway on the far turn when in traffic, according to the Equibase chart. She then “hit a seam along the rail turning for home,” as the chart further noted. Undaunted by being steadied or racing inside rivals, she advanced readily to poke her head in front at the quarter pole, then drew off to win by 7 1/2 lengths in 1:44.74.

Later in the day at Oaklawn, the one-eyed Un Ojo pulled off a 75-1 shocker vs. 10 male foes in the Grade II Rebel Stakes. What was his final time? It was 1:45.69. In fifths, Secret Oath overcame a spot of trouble and won the Honeybee in 1:44 3/5, faster than Un Ojo’s 1:45 3/5.

The Thoroughbred Times’ T.D. Thornton believes that comparing Secret Oath’s “Honeybee romp against the performance of males in the Rebel three hours later on the same Oakawn card is a non-starter. The Rebel rates as the ‘chaos race’ of the season so far among Derby preps because the 4-5 favorite was a no-show in an otherwise so-so field, and the slowly run race was won by an improbable one-eyed gelding who paid $152.80.”

Thornton also noted that “rain had moved into Hot Springs by the time the feature race arrived, and although the track was still listed as ‘fast’ for the Rebel, it would soon require sealing and a downgrade to ‘sloppy’ for the final race. The un-California-like conditions would be eventually cited as a possible excuse for trainer Bob Baffert’s ship-in fave Newgrange, who appeared primed to pounce after a trouble-free stalking strip but instead retreated to sixth.”

Lukas also is the trainer of the improving Ethereal Road, who had a wide trip and finished second in the Rebel at 15-1, while Barber Road ran third at 6-1. Newgrange was off the board at 4-5 for his first loss in four career starts.

Will Secret Oath make her next start in Oaklawn’s Grade I Arkansas Derby in an attempt to accrue the qualifying points to get into the Kentucky Derby starting gate? Or will she instead run against -- and probably again trounce – fillies in Oaklawn’s Grade II Fantasy Stakes?

Ethereal Road’s good effort for Lukas in the Rebel does make him a legit contender for the Arkansas Derby on April 2. Does this make it less likely that Secret Oath also runs in that race? Perhaps. But if both Secret Oath and Ethereal Road run in the Arkansas Derby, I have absolutely no doubt that the filly will be a shorter price -- probably a much shorter price -- than the colt.

For those ruling out the possibility that Lukas will enter both Secret Oath and Ethereal Road in the Arkansas Derby, bear in mind that this is a trainer who has never been shy to run more than one horse in an important stakes race. This is the trainer who once sent out five of the 12 starters in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at Hollywood Park in 1987. Lukas ran Dream Team (who finished third), Classic Crown (sixth), Over All (seventh), Lost Kitty (10th) and Blue Jean Baby (11th).

Or how about the time Lukas was represented by five starters in the Kentucky Derby? That occurred in 1996. Grindstone won by a scant nose while defeating fellow Lukas trainees Prince of Thieves (third), Editor’s Note (sixth), Victory Speech (10th) and Honour and Glory (18th).

Grindstone provided Lukas with one of what would be a total of four Kentucky Derby victories, joining the aforementioned Winning Colors, Thunder Gulch and Charismatic.

As a further indication that Lukas might run Secret Oath in the Arkansas Derby even though the 86-year-old trainer has Ethereal Road, in each of Lukas’ four Kentucky Derby victories, he did have other starters in the race.

Making history is part of Lukas’ DNA. He has made a lot of history during his illustrious career.

It is not lost on Lukas that the Arkansas Derby this year is five weeks out from the Kentucky Derby. That’s something he especially likes when weighing the pros and cons as to whether to run Secret Oath in the Arkansas Derby.

Lukas might have five Kentucky Derby wins to his credit instead of four if there had been five weeks between the Arkansas Derby and the Kentucky Derby in 1984.

The Lukas-trained Althea was voted a 1983 Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old filly. In 1984, she finished second in the 1 1/16-mile Fantasy on April 14, then one week later annihilated males when she won the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby by seven lengths in 1:46 4/5. At that time, the Kentucky Derby came just two weeks after the Arkansas Derby.

Althea’s Arkansas Derby performance was so strong that if she had run like that again in the Kentucky Derby, she might have given the winner, Swale, a run for his money. But it was asking way too much of Althea to run in three races in three weeks, especially when she had run so hard in the Arkansas Derby. Althea wound up 19th in the Kentucky Derby.

Learning from what happened with Althea, Lukas four years later had a much better four-week gap between the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby with Winning Colors. Unlike Althea, Winning Colors’ tank was full for her Kentucky Derby.

By the way, the TDN’s Thornton pointed out this week that Lukas spent much of the week leading up to the 1984 Arkansas Derby saying “he wouldn’t enter Althea against the boys. He did anyway.”

About the only thing Lukas hasn’t accomplished is winning the Triple Crown, though “Coach” remarkably did once win six straight in the series. He won the 1994 Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes with Tabasco Cat, the 1995 Derby with Thunder Gulch, the 1995 Preakness Stakes with Timber Country, the 1995 Belmont with Thunder Gulch, then the 1996 Derby with Grindstone.

Do you really think Lukas wouldn’t relish becoming the only trainer in history to win the Kentucky Derby with two fillies? But for that to possibly happen, Secret Oath has to run in the Arkansas Derby in order to try and earn enough points to get into the Kentucky Derby field.

Secret Oath already has enough points to get into the Kentucky Oaks. So if she doesn’t run well in the Arkansas Derby, she can go ahead and go the Oaks route on the first Friday in May.

Besides, a return to competition in the Grade II Fair Grounds Oaks on March 26 is looking more likely for undefeated Eclipse Award winner Echo Zulu. That certainly could be a springboard to the Kentucky Oaks for the four-for-four filly trained by Steve Asmussen. Echo Zulu has not appeared under silks since winning the Grade I BC Juvenile Fillies by 5 1/4 lengths last Nov. 5 at Del Mar.

Heck, if Lukas doesn’t run Secret Oath in the Arkansas Derby to try and qualify her for the Kentucky Derby, he might come to regret it. It’s not out of the question that the Kentucky Derby just might turn out to be a more winnable spot than the Kentucky Oaks for Secret Oath, especially if Messier is not in the Derby and Echo Zulu is in the Oaks.

And what if Lukas did win the Kentucky Derby with Secret Oath? What if the filly then also won the Preakness? How big of a story would that be to have her going to the Belmont with a chance to become the first filly to achieve Triple Crown glory? It would be HUGE. And I sure get the impression by the way Secret Oath has been widening in the final furlong, the 1 1/2 mile-mile distance of the Belmont might even be something she would relish.

Is Secret Oath going to win the Triple Crown? In reality, there is almost no chance of that. On the other hand, back when I was a writer for the Daily Racing Form, I first met Lukas at his Hollywood Park barn one spring day way back in 1981. If there is one thing I have learned when it comes to D. Wayne Lukas, never -- and I mean never -- think it’s impossible for him to do anything.

SECRET OATH GETS R-E-S-P-E-C-T

Secretariat.com’s Steve Haskin has Secret Oath at No. 7 in his Kentucky Derby rankings this week. Smile Happy is Haskin’s No. 1.

“I normally would never consider ranking a filly, especially with no points, but we are dealing with Wayne Lukas,” Haskin wrote. “In typical fashion, Lukas is playing it cool, saying right now that they are looking at the Fantasy for Secret Oath and the Arkansas Derby with Rebel runner-up Ethereal Road, but added they are leaving their options open. He did mention how much faster Secret Oath ran in the Honeybee Stakes than the boys did in the Rebel and that she did it under cruise control.

“I’ve known Lukas for 35 years,” Haskin continued, “and I have seen how bold he can be, especially with fillies, such as Winning Colors, Lady’s Secret, Serena’s Song, Althea and a number of others who were successful against the boys. He loves doing things others wouldn’t think of doing. I can see Lukas, at age 86, being daring one more time, especially with a filly this special and in a year when there are no real standouts. I’m not sure he can pass up this opportunity at this stage of his career. If he goes the Oaks route no harm done.”

1/ST BET analyst and handicapper Jeff Siegel has Secret Oath at No. 8 this week among his “main players” in his Triple Crown rankings, which are: 1. Messier, 2. Emmanuel, 3. Smile Happy, 4. White Abarrio, 5. Rattle N Roll, 6. Classic Causeway, 7. Epicenter, 8. Secret Oath, 9. Zozos, 10. Charge It, 11. Early Voting, 12. Zandon, 13. Mo Donegal, 14. Forbidden Kingdom, 15. Major General.

WINNING BEYERS FOR HONEYBEE AND REBEL

Secret Oath received a 92 Beyer Speed Figure for her Honeybee triumph. This is the highest Beyer by a Honeybee winner since Rose to Gold’s 98 in 2013.

Eight Belles recorded a 91 Beyer when she won the 2008 Honeybee. She would go on to finish second to Big Brown in the Kentucky Derby.

Un Ojo’s Beyer for winning the Rebel was just an 84.

Below are the Beyers for Rebel winners going back to 1990 (the figures prior to last year are listed in the 2021 American Racing Manual, which is now digital only and available for free on The Jockey Club’s website):

2022 Un Ojo (84)
2021 Concert Tour (94)
2020 Nadal (96)
2019 Omaha Beach (96)*
2019 Long Range Toddy (95)*
2018 Magnum Moon (97)
2017 Malagacy (94)
2016 Cupid (95)
2015 American Pharoah (100)
2014 Hoppertunity (100)
2013 Will Take Charge (95)
2012 Secret Circle (92)
2011 The Factor (103)
2010 Lookin At Lucky (98)
2009 Win Willy (102)
2008 Sierra Sunset (99)
2007 Curlin (99)
2006 Lawyer Ron (94)
2005 Greater Good (95)
2004 Smarty Jones (112)
2003 Crowned King (90)
2002 Windward Passage (94)
2001 Crafty Shaw (102)
2000 Snuck In (101)
1999 Etbauer (102)
1998 Victory Gallop (105)
1997 Phantom On Tour (102)
1996 Ide (93)
1995 Mystery Storm (92)
1994 Judge TC (95)
1993 Dalhart (105)
1992 Pine Bluff (106)
1991 Quintana (no Beyer listed)
1990 Nuits St. Georges (82)

*Run in divisions

BUBBLING UNDER MY TOP 10 (IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER)

Azure Coast
Barber Road
Barese
Belgrade
Blackadder
Call Me Midnight
Charge It
Comandperformance
Cyberknife
Doppelganger
Ethereal Road
Forbidden Kingdom
Giant Game
In Due Time
Major General
Mo Donegal
Momentous
Morello
Newgrange
Nitrous Channel
Pappacap
Pinehurst
Pioneer of Medina
Rockefeller
Shipsational
Slow Down Andy
Straight Up G
Tiz the Bomb
Un Ojo
Volcanic
We the People
Zandon
Zozos

FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH SELECTIONS

This Saturday’s Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park has drawn a field of 10. The 1 1/16-mile contest has attracted a field of 13, including who is on the also-eligible list.

Mo Donegel would have been a contender, but he is going to be scratched, according to Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman.

The Donegal Racing partnership that owns Mo Donegal and Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher had been “on the fence on whether to run in the Fountain of Youth,” Privman wrote. “Drawing post 12 on Monday gave them more to think about.”

And then Mo Donegal had “a low-grade temperature of 102 degrees” Wednesday morning, Pletcher said, adding that Mo Donegal will be scratched and run next in Aqueduct’s Grade II Wood Memorial on April 2.

“We probably would have scratched anyway with post 12, but this made the decision for us,” Pletcher said. “He’s on target to head straight to the Wood. That’s the most likely scenario.”

Fountain of Youth entrants on my Top 10 are No. 4 Emmanuel, No. 8 Rattle N Roll and No. 10 Simplification.

My selections for the Fountain of Youth Stakes are below:

1. Emmanuel
2. Simplification
3. In Due Time
4. Rattle N Roll

Emmanuel, trained by Pletcher, is two for two, winning by 6 3/4 and 4 1/2 lengths. This is the much-anticipated stakes debut for the Kentucky-bred More Than Ready colt.

Simplification won Gulfstream’s one-mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes by four lengths on Jan. 1. He then rallied after a poor start to finish second in Gulfstream’s Grade III Holy Bull at 1 1/16 miles on Feb. 5.

In Due Time rolled to a 5 3/4-length win in a one-mile allowance/optional claiming race Feb. 4 at Gulfstream. His 92 Beyer in that race suggests he could prove a tough customer in the Fountain of Youth, which is his stakes debut.

I’m not picking Rattle N Roll higher than fourth mainly because he could be a bit rusty off the bench. He hasn’t raced since winning the Grade I Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last Oct. 9.

SAN FELIPE STAKES SELECTIONS

Seven are scheduled to clash at 1 1/16 miles in this Saturday’s Grade II San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita.

My selections for the San Felipe Stakes are below:

1. Forbidden Kingdom
2. Doppelganger
3. Armagnac
4. Cabo Spirit

This will be Forbidden Kingdom’s first start in a race going this far. He’s coming off a front-running 2 1/4-length win in Santa Anita’s Grade II San Vicente Stakes on Jan. 29. Hall of Famer Richard Mandella trains the Kentucky-bred colt by Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.

Doppelganger, who hails from the powerful Baffert barn, finished fourth as the 4-5 favorite in San Vicente. I would not be shocked if he turns the tables on Forbidden Kingdom in this longer affair.

Armagnac, also trained by Baffert, won a 1 1/16-mile maiden race at second asking Jan. 21 at Santa Anita. It’s to his credit that he’s already won going this far, unlike Forbidden Kingdom and Doppelganger.

Cabo Spirit finished second in the Robert B. Lewis last month. That’s the good news. The bad news is he was 15 lengths behind Messier at the end of that race.

GOTHAM STAKES SELECTIONS

Aqueduct’s Grade III Gotham Stakes has drawn a field of 10 to do battle at one mile around one turn.

My selections for the Gotham Stakes are below:

1. Morello
2. Rockefeller
3. Dean’s List
4. Glider

How good is Morello? At this point, who knows? He’s untested in two career starts. Trained by Hall of Famer Asmussen, the Kentucky-bred Classic Empire colt won a six-furlong maiden race by 4 1/4 lengths at Aqueduct on Nov 27. That was followed by a five-length victory in the seven-furlong Jimmy Winkfield Stakes at the Big A on Feb. 6.

Asmussen has said he feels Morello has “a lot of quality.”

Rockefeller is back in New York after finishing second to Newgrange in Santa Anita’s Grade III Sham Stakes on Jan. 1. He won the Grade III Nashua Stakes at Belmont Park on Nov. 7.

Dean’s List, a Pletcher trainee, is two for two. Both of his wins have come in six-furlong sprints at Gulfstream.

Glider had to settle for second behind the highly regarded Emmanuel at Tampa Bay Downs last time out.

NTRA REVEALS ITS FIRST POLLS FOR 2022

The first editions of this year’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll and Top 3-Year-old Poll were announced Monday.

The Top Thoroughbred Poll is indicative of who might be crowned a divisional champion and, moreover, Horse of the Year. Eligible journalists and broadcasters each week submit their Top 10 horses, with points awarded on a 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 points basis.

The 2022 Top Thoroughbred Poll concludes after the Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland on Nov. 4-5.

Voting in the final Top 3-Year-Old Poll of 2022 will be released following the Grade I Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park on June11.

Life Is Good, winner of the Grade I Pegasus World Cup by 3 1/4 lengths at Gulfstream over 2021 Horse of the Year Knicks Go (now retired), is No. 1 on the Top 10 in the first Top Thoroughbred Poll of 2022, which is listed below:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 295 Life Is Good (28)
2. 225 Letruska (1)
3. 181 Colonel Liam
4. 145 Hot Rod Charlie
5. 137 Flightline
5. 100 Mandaloun
7. 88 Midnight Bourbon
8. 73 Country Grammer
9. 61 Knicks Go
10. 43 Express Train

The Top 10 in the final NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll of 2020:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 360 Knicks Go (36)
2. 270 Essential Quality
3. 265 Life Is Good
4. 242 Medina Spirit
5. 205 Letruska
6. 126 Hot Rod Charlie
7. 67 Golden Pal
8. 64 Yibir
9. 59 Jackie’s Warrior
10. 55 Gamine

FIRST 3-YEAR-OLD POLL TOPPED BY EPICENTER

Epicenter, winner of Fair Grounds’ Grade II Risen Star Stakes, is No. 1 on the Top 10 in the first NTRA Top 3-Year-Old Poll of 2022:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 254 Epicenter (7)
2. 169 Smile Happy (2)
3. 165 Messier (11)
3. 153 Classic Causeway (3)
5. 114 White Abarrio
6. 86 Un Ojo
7. 83 Corniche (2)
7. 83 Secret Oath (3)
9. 72 Zandon (1)
10. 61 Mo Donegal

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-05-2022, 02:39 PM

Top Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, March 5, 2022
By J.W. Paine in Horse Racing

I’ve handpicked winners in 12 stakes races across three tracks for my horseracing choices for Saturday.

I visited Aqueduct Racetrack, Gulfstream Park, and Santa Anita Park because each of them is hosting one of the qualifying races that make up the Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying races. I also pick some winners for a couple of Kentucky Oaks prep races, as well.

And as always, you can find the full Saturday race-cards for all three tracks at our best online sportsbooks.

Good luck!
My Saturday Picks for Aqueduct Racetrack

Race Nine is the Busher Invitational Stakes is a $250,000 purse, one-mile stakes race on the dirt track for three-year-old fillies. The top four finishers in the Busher Invitational Stakes are awarded leaderboard points (50-20-10-5) to qualify for a post position in the 2022 Kentucky Oaks.

I’m calling this one for the 6/1 underdog, Sterling Silver, with top jockey Trevor McCarthy in the irons.

This filly won both of her career starts, including her initial maiden attempt in November and the Franklin Square Stakes (Black Type) here at Aqueduct in January.
Granted, all six of the fillies in this race have performed well in stakes races, but Sterling Silver’s the only one to post triple-digit speed figures while doing so.

Thomas Albertrani trains Sterling Silver for owner Mark T. Anderson.

Race ten is the Gotham Stakes (Grade III), a $300,000 purse, one-mile race on the dirt track for three-year-olds. The top four finishers in the Gotham Stakes are awarded Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard points (50-20-10-5) to qualify for a post position in the 2022 Kentucky Derby.

My money’s on the third-favored (at 4/1) entry in this ten-horse field: Rockefeller, ridden by Trevor McCarthy.

This three-year-old colt moneyed three of his four career starts, winning two, including his initial maiden at Del Mar as well as the Nashua Stakes (Grade III) at Belmont Park in November. Most recently, he finished second in the Sham Stakes (Grade III) at Santa Anita in January.

Bob Baffert trains Rockefeller for owners SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, and Robert E. Masterson.
Saturday’s Picks for Gulfstream Park

Race six in the Davona Dale Stakes, a $200,000 purse, one-mile race on the dirt track for here-year-old fillies. The top four finishers in the Davona Dale Stakes are awarded leaderboard points (50-20-10-5) to qualify for a post position in the 2022 Kentucky Oaks.

I’m betting my two dollars on the 3/1 morning-line favorite: Girl With a Dream, piloted by Luis Saez.

This filly finished in the money five of her six career starts, winning four, including her most recent three—an allowance race at Churchill Downs in November, the Letellier Memorial Stakes (Black Type) at Fair Grounds in December, and the Forward Gal Stakes (Grade III) here at Gulfstream last month.

Brad H. Cox trains Girl With a Dream for owners Jim Bakke and Gerald Isbister.

Race ten is the Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes (Grade II), a $200,000 purse, one-mile dirt track race for four-year-olds and upward. I like the 3/1 second-favored entry in this nine-horse field—Fearless, with Luis Saez in the irons.

This six-year-old gelding finished ten of his 12 career starts in the money, winning five, including the Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes (Grade II) in February 2021, and the Harlan’s Holiday Stakes (Grade III) in December.
Fearless has performed better and more often in stakes races than the otherwise impressive morning-line favorite, Speaker’s Corner.

Todd A. Pletcher trains Fearless for Repole Stable.

Race eleven is the Mac Diarmida Stakes (Grade II), a $200,000 purse, 1-3/8 miles run on the turf course for four-year-olds and upward. I’m buying a win ticket on the 8/5 morning-line favorite, Abaan, ridden by Luis Saez.

This one’s my no-brainer pick of the day. No other entry in this eleven-horse field comes close to this five-year-old gelding’s record: Eight money finishes in ten career starts, with four wins.

Those four wins include an allowance race in November at Aqueduct, the H. Allen Jerkens Stakes (Listed) in December, and the W. L. McKnight Stakes (Grade III) at the end of January.

Todd A. Pletcher trains Abaan for owners Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Alex Daigneault.

Race twelve is the Fountain of Youth Stakes (Grade II), a $400,000 purse, 1-1/16 miles dirt track run for three-year-olds. The top four finishers in the Fountain of Youth Stakes are awarded Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard points (50-20-10-5) to qualify for a post position in the 2022 Kentucky Derby.
I’m betting my two dollars on the fourth-favored (at 8/1) entry in this thirteen-horse field: Rattle N Roll, with Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. in the irons.

As you’d expect, all of the horses in this race are stars, but this colt stands out: Three money finishes in three career starts, two of them wins—including his most recent, the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (Grade I) at Keeneland in December.

Kenneth G. McPeek trains Rattle N Roll for Lucky Seven Stable (Mackin).
Saturday Picks for Santa Anita Park

Race four is the San Carlos Stakes (Grade II), a $200,000 purse, seven-furlong dirt track run for four-year-olds and upward. I agree with the morning line: Buy a winning ticket on the 5/2 favorite, Cezanne, ridden by Flavien Prat.

This five-year-old finished in the money four of his five career starts, winning three, including the Kona Gold Stakes (Grade III) last April. He most recently finished third in the Palos Verdes Stakes (Grade III) in late January.

Bob Baffert—who has two entries in this nine-horse race—trains Cezanne for owners Mrs. John Magnier, Michael B. Tabor, Derrick Smith, and St. Elias Stable. His other horse, Eight Rings, is second-favored at 3/1, and might be worth a safety bet.

Race five is the Buena Vista Stakes (Grade II), a $200,000 purse, one-mile turf run for fillies and mares four years old and upward. I’m betting on the 3/1 morning-line favorite, Going to Vegas, with Flavien Prat aboard.

This five-year-old mare finished in the money 17 of her 23 career starts, winning seven, including the John C. Mabee Stakes (Grade II) at Del Mar in September and the Rodeo Drive Stakes (Grade I) at Santa Anita in October.
Going to Vegas whiffed her most recent race, the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Grade I) at Del Mar in November, finishing 11th out of 12 after leading the pack until the final stretch. The shorter length of the Buena Vista Stakes should make a real difference for her.

Richard Baltas trains Going to Vegas for Abbondanza Racing, LLC, Medallion Racing, and MyRacehorse.

Race six is the San Felipe Stakes (Grade II), a $400,000 purse, 1-1/16 miles dirt track run for three-year-olds. The top four finishers in the San Felipe Stakes are awarded Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard points (50-20-10-5) to qualify for a post position in the 2022 Kentucky Derby.

I like the 8/5 morning-line favorite, Forbidden Kingdom, piloted by Juan J. Hernandez.

This colt finished all four of his career starts in the money, winning two, including his initial maiden attempt last August and the San Vicente Stakes (Grade II) here at Santa Anita in January. He also notably finished second at the Bob Hope Stakes (Grade II) at Del Mar in November.

Richard E. Mandella trains Forbidden Kingdom for owners MyRacehorse and Spendthrift Farm LLC.

Race nine is the Beholder Mile Stakes (Grade I), a $500,000 purse, one-mile dirt track run for fillies and mares four years old and upward. My money’s on the 4/5 morning-line favorite, As Time Goes By, with Flavien Prat aboard.
This five-year-old mare finished ten of her 13 career starts in the money, winning six, including her two most recent races, the Bayakoa Stakes (Grade III) at Los Alamitos in December and the La Canada Stakes (Grade III) here at Santa Anita in January. In this short field of five (Moonlight d’Oro has been scratched), she’s the standout.

Bob Baffert trains As Time Goes By for owners Michael B. Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier, and Derrick Smith.

Race ten is the Frank E. Kilroe Mile Stakes, a $500,000 purse, one-mile turf run for four-year-olds and upward. I’m buying a winning ticket on the 8/1 sleeper in this 12-horse field—Beyond Brilliant, ridden by Victor Espinoza.

This four-year-old colt got off to a slow start in his career, but once he broke his maiden and put a handful of allowance races behind him, he started cashing paychecks at some of the horseracing world’s richest races.

For the record, Beyond Brilliant moneyed eight of his ten career starts, winning three, including the Hollywood Derby (Grade I) at Del Mar in November.

John A. Shirreffs trains Beyond Brilliant for C R K Stable LLC.

Race eleven is the Santa Anita Handicap (Grade I), a $650,000 purse, 1-1/4 miles dirt track run for four-year-olds and upward. I think the morning-line favorite is going to see some real competition from the third-favored Warrant, but I’m still betting my two dollars on the 8/5 favorite, Express Train, with Victor Espinoza aboard.

This five-year-old finished ten of his 13 career starts in the money, winning six, including his two most recent, the San Antonio Stakes (Grade II) in December and the San Pasqual Stakes (Grade II) last month–both here at Santa Anita.