Saturday 3/5/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Fair Grounds Picks: Another Saturday Turf Edition on March 5
By J.N. Campbell


Fair Grounds Picks - Saturday, March 5, 2022

Race 1: 2-3-1-5
Race 2: 4-2-8-5
Race 3: 3-5-6-2
Race 4: 4-5-1-3
Race 5: 6-1/1A-5-4
Race 6: 2-7-6-5
Race 7: 5-3-4-7
Race 8: 7-11-6-2
Race 9: 6-4-3-8
**Most Likely Winner: Tommy Bee #2 (Race 6)**
**Best Value: Blessed Anna #4 (Race 4)**

Most Likely Winner: (Race 6: Tommy Bee #2, 7/2):

A regularly scheduled turf race on the March card at the Fair Grounds is the Black Gold $75k for 3-yr-olds. This turf route normally brings together a nice group of sodbusters. I want to put my dollars and sense behind Brad Cox’s entry. This well-bred son of Medaglia d’Oro has great potential, and a powerful ownership behind him. Bob Lapenta and Madaket Stables have watched their investment progress, and he looks poised to move up into a “Non-G” like this. Cox is having another superb Meet, and when he pairs with Colby Hernandez, they can be lethal. With a strong turf pedigree, expect this one to be there in the end, as he gets back to a surface that suits.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #2



Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 4: Blessed Anna #4, 5/1):

In a short field like this one, with no deserving favorite present, it will be tough to catch a long shot. However, I like Shane Wilson’s 5-yr-old mare by Fast Anna for several reasons. First, she has made some steady progress during the Meet, and performed admirably in a trio of contests. Each time she hit-the-board it proved to be a mark of consistency. Secondly, her sire has good roots in the grass. I also like the fact that the connections are getting James Graham, a veteran who is also having a strong go of late. That is the best news ever. I cannot say I am particularly concerned about the other LA breds in here. This is turf racing, and the Stall Course is ready to host.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #4 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)



Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 8: Turf, 1 Mile, Edward J. Johnston Memorial S. $60k, 4+ LA Breds):

Looking over the form for this turf “feature,” I am particularly interested in betting this one because it offers some major value. With a full field of 11 drawn-in, the options are aplenty. Of course, we know that based on the M/L odds that Bret Calhoun holds a very strong entry in Who Took the Money #6. This gelding by Street Boss comes in with a nice record of 3 wins in his last 4 starts. He has taken on some of these rivals in this spot before, and handled them with ease. Deshawn Parker rode him effortlessly in his last 2 starts, and expect that he will be tough once again. I am up for looking in the clearance section for some bargains, and not just accepting this favorite at what is sure to be a short price. Let’s look to Gennadi Dorochenko’s Mr. Universe #11. This box car-priced runner by Tonalist is sure to be a double-digit number on the tote, and I like this colt. If you look back at his time last summer at the now defunct Arlington Park, he ran against way tougher competition than this. Just being in the Bruce D (G1) on the former Arlington Million card is something. The young Jose Vega gets the call in this spot, and he rode him nicely in a state bred ALLW Co. race back on 10 Feb. That win by-a-head showed moxie, and this is not one to underestimate. The now-4-yr-old has 2 wins @FG … As for one other entry that I would like to use, don’t forget about Ron Faucheux’s Mangelsen #7. The gelding by Big Band Sound is laden with turf in his bloodline, and he is a specialist on the lawn. The last time out was a frontend victory in an OC20kn2x, and the barn makes the switch to Jareth Loveberry. His riding is starting to heat up, and that makes this one very dangerous on the engine. Let’s use all 3 of these entries and see what we can put together.

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Trifecta Box, 6/7/11

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Today’s Free Horse Picks – Saturday, March 5th 2022
By Reggie Garrett

We are covering 7 tracks on Saturday, March 5th, 2022. Reggie Garrett has his picks for each race at Gulfstream Park, Fair Grounds, Aqueduct and more. Good luck and enjoy!


Aqueduct – 12:50 ET
Race 1: 6 Al’s Prince
Race 2: 2 Don the Jeweler
Race 3: 1 Reop Rocks
Race 4: 3 Matty’s Marauder
Race 5: 6 State Planning
Race 6: 1 Safalow’s Mission
Race 7: 5 Chris and Dave
Race 8: 7 American Gentleman
Race 9: 4 Venti Valentine
Race 10: Gotham Stakes Entries & Free Picks


Fair Grounds – 1:05 CT
Race 1: 5 Tripper John
Race 2: 8 Charlie G
Race 3: 3 Golden Passage
Race 4: 2 Offspring
Race 5: 4 Wow Me Fast
Race 6: 2 Tommy Bee
Race 7: 7 Big Chopper
Race 8: 7 Mangelsen
Race 9: 3 New Year’s Party


Gulfstream Park – 12:10 ET
Race 1: 4 Twice too Many
Race 2: 1 Signal From Noise
Race 3: 7 Mouillage
Race 4: 10 Positive Review
Race 5: 2 Harajuku
Race 6: 5 Sweet Dani Girl
Race 7: 9 Red Danger
Race 8: 1 Liam
Race 9: 7 Alms
Race 10: 3 Speaker’s Corner
Race 11: 8 Temple
Race 12: Fountain of Youth Stakes Entries & Free Picks
Race 13: 5 Beside Herself


Oaklawn Park – 1:00 CT
Race 1: 4 Freudian Fate
Race 2: 7 Ernie Banker
Race 3: 6 Breaking News
Race 4: 2 Hardly a Secret
Race 5: 8 Seau
Race 6: 5 Hillary G
Race 7: 7 Cole Spur
Race 8: 3 Much Better
Race 9: 3 Tempt Fate
Race 10: 7 Bella Runner


Santa Anita Park – 12:00 PT
Race 1: 10 See Through It
Race 2: 5 Mauritius
Race 3: 1 Bristol Bayou
Race 4: 9 Shooters Shoot
Race 5: 5 Leggs Galore
Race 6: San Felipe Stakes Entries & Free Picks
Race 7: 9 Tuskegee Cat
Race 8: 5 Ultimate Hy
Race 9: Beholder Mile Stakes Entries & Free Picks
Race 10: Frank E. Kilroe Stakes Entries & Free Picks
Race 11: Santa Anita Handicap Entries & Free Picks


Tampa Bay Downs – 12:16 ET
Race 1: 3 Spanish Delight
Race 2: 5 Firehorn
Race 3: 8 Bunny Princess
Race 4: 3 Tea’s Dream
Race 5: 6 Macho Real
Race 6: 3 Fully Loaded
Race 7: 8 Sparkling Plenty
Race 8: 2 Harpoon Harry
Race 9: 9 Drama’s Prayer
Race 10: 6 D’craziness


Turfway Park – 6:15 ET
Race 1: 3 Thrombocytopenia
Race 2: 5 The Boss Factor
Race 3: 2 Super Steamy
Race 4: 8 Icarus
Race 5: 11 Bloodline
Race 6: 9 Bubble Rock
Race 7: 5 Royal County
Race 8: 10 Kick Out the Jams

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Gulfstream Park Picks: Fountain of Youth Saturday LP5 ticket on March 5
By J.N. Campbell


Gulfstream Park Picks - Saturday, March 5, 2022

Race 1: 6-4-12-9
Race 2: 5-11-6-1
Race 3: 7-2-3-6
Race 4: 1-8-4-2
Race 5: 8-2-5-6
Race 6: 3-5-2-1
Race 7: 2-6-4-9
Race 8: 10-7-1-4
Race 9: 3-8-6-9
Race 10: 4-3-8-9
Race 11: 7-1-6-10
Race 12: 8-7-2-4
Race 13: 4-5-8-6
**Most Likely Winner: Emmanuel #8 (Race 12)**
**Best Value: Fantasioso #7 (Race 11)**

LATE PICK 5…

LEG 1: (Race 9: Turf, 1 Mile, Honey Fox S. (G3), $150k, F&M 4+)

The Late Pick 5 sequence on this Super Saturday is going to be nothing short of a doozy … Taking to the GP Turf Course (which I am still convinced is just painted dirt), the Honey Fox is a Grade 3 fixture this time of year. I want to tip a turfer that has solid grass experience, and when it comes to a top selection, I like Todd Pletcher’s Jouster #3. During her 3-yr-old filly career this daughter of Noble Mission amassed a nice record, and it started on this very track. Pletcher watched her blossom, and coming back after a major break, I think she can move forward with the steady Luis Saez back in the irons. Let’s use her on top, but I also like the look of a couple of other entries. Trainer Brian Lynch’s Gift List #6, and Bill Mott’s Wakanaka #8 are promising … The former is an experienced filly that got a tough set of breaks in the Pegasus F&M Turf (G3) in late January. Julien Leparoux did his very best, and I think this cutback in distance might be of assistance. As for Mott’s runner, her dam traces her line through Kodiac (GB), but her experience has mainly resided on the grass in Italy. She came to Mott’s stable last year, and her debut in the Pegasus WC (G3) was not a poor effort. It was her 1st race in the U.S., and now Mott tabs Jose Ortiz to ride. This is a shrewd move … Let’s go 3-Deep here, and that should suit!

Selections: 3/6/8 (3-Deep)



LEG 2: (Race 10: Dirt, 1 Mile, Gulfstream Park Mile S. (G2), $200k, 4+)

It is rematch time, and I am looking forward to seeing Todd Pletcher’s Fearless #4 and Bill Mott’s Speaker’s Corner #3 go head-to-head. Last time, in the Grade 3 Fred Hopper S., it was Mott who got the better of Pletcher. Now, the tables will turn, and I like the chance at some redemption. Pletcher’s gelding by Ghostzapper is not going to get stuck down on the rail, and with Luis Saez riding once again, I think this one is a “Single” for sure. Mott got the leg up last time, but it will not be the case again. Repole has a game winner in their stable, and the venerable veteran should be able to comeback nicely here. He is fit as can be.

Selections: 4 (Single)



LEG 3: (Race 11: Turf, 1 3/8ths, Mac Diarmida S. (G2), $200kk, 4+)

Heading back to the painted grass, we are wading into some tougher races, and this one is no exception. This is a Grade 2 distance test, and make no mistake about it, we could be sitting on a price horse, if all goes to plan. I know that Todd Pletcher (3 entries), and Mike Maker (5 entries) make up the bulk of this field. Frankly, I am only mildly interested in their horses. Of course, Abaan #1 has the power to win, based on the fact that he won the McKnight (G3) last time out. Luis Saez went wire-to-wire, and in the process, never looked back for Eclipse Thoroughbreds. Using him in a horizontal wager like this one has to happen, but I am a fan of 2 others that look intriguing. Phil Serpe’s Safe Conduct #6 has a number of distance races under his saddle, and he just turned 4-yrs-old this year. Even though he will be a big price, I wouldn’t underestimate his abilities because he has competed against some tough customers at Belmont and Woodbine in ’21. I like that Julien Leparoux gets the call, and his riding in situations like these can be inspired. Coming off a rest since December, he looks ready to fire. The other turfer that I want to use is from Jeff Bloom’s outfit, Bloom Racing, and this 7-yr-old was right at the wire in his last race. The John B. Connally Turf Cup (G3) was, for the 1st time in its history, a “Dead Heat.” Fantasioso #7 worked hard in the last furlong, and James Graham just got him up in time. Ignacio Correas has this one headed in the proper direction, and I think he can take a big step forward in this spot. His late-running style really works, and the choice of Brian Hernandez, who happens to be in-town, is excellent. He is going to be a massive price, and will certainly get overlooked. I think these 3 I mentioned give us an excellent opportunity to notch a winner … Now, on with the big show!

Selections: 1/6/7 (3-Deep)



LEG 4: (Race 12: Dirt, 1 1/16th, Fountain of Youth S. (G2), $400k, 3, KYD148 Points, 50-20-10-5)

As FOY Week unfolded, we learned the news that Todd Pletcher’s Mo Donegal would not be able to run because of a fever. The HOF conditioner confirmed that his colt would try to point to the G2 Wood Memorial in early April. That scratch shifted things a bit, but it did not change my top selection … Pletcher’s other half of his uncoupled entry, Emmanuel #8. As I stated in my Runners Guide, this lightly-raced colt by More Than Ready was awfully good last time out in a prep for this race at Tampa. He passed the eye test that day in late January in an OC75kn1x event. Winning by 4+ lengths, he was in command from the beginning. I think this budding superstar has what it takes to win a G2 and secure his spot in the gate at Churchill Downs. Once again, Luis Saez and Pletcher work together, and this is a solid match. The colt’s past 2 works look quite good … One other entry that gives me pause is from the barn of Saffie Joseph. I liked A.P.’s Secret #7 because of his ability to set some pretty fast fractions. His last race at Gulfstream back in early January was a “key” jumping off point, and the S. Florida conditioner clearly had this FOY spot in mind. The colt by Cupid has been training very well, and with the addition of Tyler Gaffalione, I think he is a contender at a price. Joseph continues to exhibit impressive skills, so I would not leave him out of the mix. Nothing like a couple of strong opinions to keep this ticket price down … on to the finale!

Selections: 7/8 (2-Deep)



LEG 5: (Race 13: Turf, 1 Mile, Herecomesthebride S. (G3), $125k, 3F)

The younger version of the Honey Fox is this race for 3-yr-old fillies … the Herecomesthebride. A Grade 3, this year’s edition has a full field of 12 (plus an AE) that will be trying to get 2 turns. Luckily, I have left enough in the old kitty to invest heavily here, and we are going to need it … My top choice goes to Graham Motion’s Spendarella #4. Owned by the dignified and efficient Gainesway Stable, this filly is well-bred for the grass by Karakontie (JPN). She broke her maiden on debut at Gulfstream back on 2 Feb., and I was on her then. She track the pace quite well, and with Jose Ortiz in the irons, was able to use that gifted turn-of-foot down the lane. Ortiz is back, and I think she could be another filly star for this fabulous conditioner. Looking right next door in the starting gate, I would not leave out Todd Pletcher’s Beside Herself #5. With 3 races under her saddle already, the Michael Tabor-owned filly by Uncle Mo broke her own maiden last out in a MSW60k, just like her rival. The old angle of 3rd in the cycle looks possible here, and I would never count out Jose’s brother Irad Ortiz. As for some insurance picks, just to hedge a bit, let’s also use Bill Mott’s Mischievous Kiss #2, Mark Casse’s Lemieux #6, Roderick Rodriguez’s Opalina #8, and finally Christophe Clement’s Lia Marina #12. Each of these entries appears to either have some class advantages or is trained by a grass master that could cook up a victory. One quick mention … you will notice an “Also-Eligible” that is entered for Chad Brown called Dolce Zel #13. I would find a way to include her, especially if Irad Ortiz takes the mount. She is well-bred, and comes to GP with some European form. Do not miss her! I will say this, the Herecomesthebride might end up being one of the more competitive, if not the … most competitive contest on the entire card. As Peter Aiello is fond of saying in his race calls when it is overtly contentious, “Who da ya like here?” Let’s hope that one of our picks can close out this card, and get us back to the window to cash!

Selections: 2/4/5/6/8/12/AE-13 (6-Deep)

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Ticket: 3-6-8 / 4 / 1-6-7 / 7-8 / 2-4-5-6-8-12-13(AE)

.50 P5 TICKET COST: $54.00 (does not include the AE)

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TimeformUS Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Saturday, March 5, 2022

David AragonaMar 04, 2022

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RACE 8: AMERICAN GENTLEMAN (#7)

Trash Talker could attract some support in this spot as he steps up in class to face N1X company. This isn’t the strongest race for the level, but it’s still a tougher field than Trash Talker defeated last time when he got loose on the front end here two weeks ago. He’s capable of running some competitive speed figures when things go his way, but he figures to get some early pressure here from Bustin Shout. I don’t trust him, and instead prefer horses who have competed against tougher fields at this level. That includes all three horses exiting the seventh race on Feb. 5. Castle Chaos is the one that figures to garner the most attention from that spot after finishing well to get up for third behind runaway winner Southern District. He got shuffled back a little on the turn, but that actually worked out for him because it allowed his rider to wheel him outside to the best part of the track. The inside was not the place to be on Feb. 5, as all of the best running was done out in the middle of the racetrack. For that reason, I want to give a shot to American Gentleman coming out of that race. A mile is probably too far for him anyway, but he was forced to gravitate towards the inside once he inherited the lead coming around the far turn, and he understandably faded late. I like the turnback in distance, and thought that he ran particularly well two back when closing after a wide trip to get up to win over Trash Talker. That’s proven to be a strong race, as the five runners who finished directly behind American Gentleman have returned to improve their speed figures in their next starts.

:: Get TimeformUS PPs for these races at Aqueduct

RACE 9: VENTI VALENTINE (#4)

Radio Days has been well-meant right from the start. She got bet down to favoritism in her career debut and didn’t disappoint. She then won as easily as could be over this track in December before tackling stakes foes in Florida. While she lost the Grade 3 Forward Gal as the 3-5 favorite, she got bumped back to last at the start while the winner enjoyed a soft front-running trip. She’s always been cut out to go this far, and has consistently run the fastest speed figures, though it’s not as if she has a massive edge over this field. I expect her to be a very short price given the general hype around her, and I’m not sure her chances of winning are commensurate with heavy favoritism, though I do think she’s the horse to beat. Among the logical alternatives, I’m most against Magic Circle. She does figure to have a pace advantage, but I’m not thrilled with her last race, in which she rode a rail bias and wasn’t able to improve on her top speed figure even with that boost. I prefer the two fillies drawn directly to her inside, and I’ll let price be my guide. I made Venti Valentine my top pick, since I do think she’s the second most likely winner. She was nearly perfect last year, beating N.Y.-breds in her first couple of starts before just missing in the Grade 2 Demoiselle. I thought that was a very game effort, in which she battled back valiantly after getting bumped in midstretch. She has been training in Florida through the winter and has looked strong in recent works, though there is a gap in her February training. The Jorge Abreu barn has been quiet lately, but that could just mean he’s gearing up for a spring push, which could kick off here. The other horse that I want to use is Morning Matcha. She’s run well in both of her local starts despite settling for second each time. Though she was unable to reel in Magic Circle last time, she was wide against the rail bias for the second half of that race. Turning back to the one-turn mile should suit her deep-closing style, though there isn’t much pace signed on.

RACE 10: BOLD JOURNEY (#8)

There is a ton of early speed signed on in this Gotham, which could force the hand of Dean’s List most of all. This runner has to be ridden aggressively as he ships up from Florida and stretches out from a pair of six-furlong events. I like the tenacity that this colt displayed last time beating the talented Dean Delivers, and he does have a pedigree to suggest that a mile should be within his scope. Todd Pletcher doesn’t have particularly strong stretch-out statistics, and the early pace pressure could be his undoing. The logical horse to beat from a trip standpoint is Morello. He’s one of the few major contenders who has shown the ability to pass horses and finish strongly. I like the way he overcame a poor start in his career debut, and he stepped forward from a speed-figure standpoint in the Jimmy Winkfield last time. The problem is that he just seems a little too obvious, and could be overbet for that reason. The short price that I don’t want is Rockefeller. I thought this horse was fortunate when he won the Nashua two back, and I didn’t like his effort in the Sham last time when barely holding second despite getting a perfect stalking trip. My top pick is Bold Journey. My initial reaction to his last race was that he may not want to go this far, but a closer look at the TimeformUS Pace Figures for the Gander Stakes reveals that he made a significant middle move to break the race open. He paid the price for that early acceleration in deep stretch. This time I think he’s going to be ridden a bit more conservatively. He’s not supposed to have any trouble with the distance as a half-brother to Americanrevolution, and his speed figures are right in line with those of the main players.

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2022 Santa Anita Handicap Cheat Sheet: Get to Know the Horses
Racing
March 2nd, 2022 by Patrick Reed



Saturday’s $650,000, Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap Presented by Yaamava’ Resort & Casino is an important early-season test at Santa Anita Park for older horses on the road to the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic Oct. 5 at Keeneland.

The 1 ¼-mile Big ’Cap is one of the most prestigious races in California and has been since it was first held in 1935, with winners including Seabiscuit, Round Table, Hill Rise, Nodouble, Ack Ack, Affirmed, Spectacular Bid, John Henry (twice), Alysheba, Best Pal, Tiznow, Lava Man (twice), Game On Dude (three times), Shared Belief, and Accelerate.

Join 1/ST Racing for the 1/ST SATURDAY on March 5, 2022, featuring 15 stakes races between Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita Park. In addition to the Santa Anita Handicap, Fountain of Youth Stakes, San Felipe Stakes, and Davona Dale Stakes, check out these other great wagering benefits from 1/ST:

Free-to-Play $5 Million Pick 15 Sweepstakes Pick the winner of all 15 stakes races on 1/ST SATURDAY to win a $5 Million Jackpot. It’s free to play and easy to enter. For more information, visit 1st-saturday.com. Entries open Wednesday, March 3.
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Live TV Broadcast Watch 1/ST SATURDAY live on CNBC from 4 p.m. – 6 p.m. ET, featuring live commentary and insights from Eddie Olczyk, Nick Luck, and more.

Read on for information on all eight Big ’Cap starters.
Eclipse Sportswire

1. Spielberg (8-1 morning line odds)

Jockey: Abel Cedillo

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Owners: Golconda Stables, Madaket Stables, SF Racing, Siena Farm, Starlight Racing and Robert Masterson

Career record: 11 starts – 3 wins – 3 seconds – 1 third

Career earnings: $475,900

Earnings per start: $43,264

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 103

Pedigree: Union Rags – Miss Squeal, by Smart Strike

Age: 4

Color: Chestnut

Running style: Stalker/closer

Notable achievements and interesting facts: Spielberg was one of the most highly regarded 2-year-olds on the California circuit a year and a half ago, when he finished in the top three in two Grade 1 stakes and closed out 2020 with a nose win in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity. It’s fair to say that he peaked early, though, as he’s only won one of five starts since then and was removed from the Triple Crown trail after finishing a well-beaten eighth in last year’s Curlin Florida Derby. Spielberg has performed respectably in his two starts so far at age 4, winning a one-mile allowance-optional claiming race at Santa Anita on Jan. 14 and then running fourth behind Express Train in the 1 1/8-mile, Grade 2 San Pasqual Stakes on Feb. 22. Overall, this $1 million dollar purchase appears best-suited to racing at distances a mile or shorter, and as such he should be a longshot in Saturday’s 1 ¼-mile Big ’Cap. Trainer Bob Baffert has won this race five times: General Challenge (2000); Misremembered (2010); and with front-running Game On Dude in 2011, 2013, and 2014.
Nikki Sherman/EQUI-PHOTO

2. Why Why Paul Why (6-1)

Jockey: Juan Hernandez

Trainer: Michael McCarthy

Owner: JKX Racing

Career record: 19 starts – 6 wins – 5 seconds – 0 thirds

Career earnings: $196,178

Earnings per start: $10,325

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 108

Pedigree: Archarcharch – Precious Beauty, by Whywhywhy

Age: 5

Color: Bay

Running style: Pacesetter/press the pace

Notable achievements and interesting facts: This mysteriously-named horse (who is Paul, and what did he do to cause such distress?) is also an intriguing lunch-pail longshot contender in the Big ’Cap. He makes his first start in California for new trainer Mike McCarthy after racking up five wins in seven starts for trainer Penny Pearce on the East Coast. Those wins came after Why Why Paul Why was claimed out of a race at Churchill Downs in May 2021 when he finished sixth, and it’s fair to say he validated that decision and then some as his five subsequent wins – all at Parx Racing in races at a mile or longer – were by a combined 24 ½ lengths. His most recent victory came in the listed Kris Kringle Stakes at Parx, where he earned a 108 Equibase Speed Figure, and he followed that with a good second-place effort in the Jazil Stakes at Aqueduct on Jan. 22 (104 figure) before moving to the West Coast. Why Why Paul Why is stepping up in class – big-time – but his recent speed figures are competitive with most of his Santa Anita Handicap foes and Juan Hernandez, currently ranked second in wins and earnings among jockeys at Santa Anita, picks up the mount. He prefers to race on or near the early lead, so expect him to be a pace factor at the very least. Hernandez rode Express Train to a runner-up finish in in last year’s Big ’Cap, and McCarthy-trained Independence Hall finished fourth.
Eclipse Sportswire

3. Warrant (4-1)

Jockey: Flavien Prat

Trainer: Brad Cox

Owner: Twin Creeks Racing Stables

Career record: 8 starts – 3 wins – 3 seconds – 2 thirds

Career earnings: $649,700

Earnings per start: $81,213

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 101

Pedigree: Constitution – Whisper Number, by First Samurai

Age: 4

Color: Chestnut

Running style: Press the pace/stalker

Notable achievements and interesting facts: Warrant comes into Saturday’s race as an accomplished, lightly raced colt with plenty of upside. He did not race at age 2 and broke his maiden in his second 2021 start and was then patiently developed by Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox over the spring and summer, eventually winning both the Texas Derby at Lone Star Park and the Grade 3 Oklahoma Derby at Remington Park (he also finished second in two other stakes races). In his first start at age 4, he was outclassed by both Mandaloun and Midnight Bourbon but finished a clear third in the Grade 3 Louisiana Stakes at Fair Grounds on Jan. 22. There don’t appear to be any horses comparable with those two runners in the Big ’Cap with the possible exception of Express Train, which means Warrant has a chance to score a top-level win if he can summon a career-best effort. He’s a must use in exacta and trifecta tickets with Santa Anita’s leading rider Flavien Prat getting aboard for the first time. Prat finished fourth in last year’s edition aboard Independence Hall.

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4. Soy Tapatio (20-1)

Jockey: Diego Herrera

Trainer: Doug O’Neill

Owner: Mercado Racing

Career record: 6 starts – 2 wins – 0 seconds – 2 thirds

Career earnings: $101,480

Earnings per start: $16,913

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 106

Pedigree: Not This Time – Rum Punch, by Street Hero

Age: 4

Color: Dark bay or brown

Running style: Stalker

Notable achievements and interesting facts: Another intriguing contender, this gelded son of hot, young sire Not This Time makes his stakes debut in a historic Grade 1 event Saturday after posting back-to-back wins in 1 1/16-mile races at Santa Anita over the past couple of months. Soy Tapatio did not make his career debut until November of last year and went winless in four quick starts to close out 2021, but he came back to break his maiden by 6 ¼ lengths on Jan. 8 and then post a one-length win in an allowance-optional claiming race just 15 days ago on Feb. 18. The quick turnaround is a sign of confidence from trainer Doug O’Neill and owner Mercado Racing, and an acknowledgment that this year’s Big ’Cap lineup might not be exactly world-beating. Diego Herrera has been in the irons for both of Soy Tapatio’s wins, and it will be interesting to see how the 17-year-old apprentice rides him Saturday, as the gelding broke his maiden in front-running fashion but won his allowance with an off-the-pace rally that netted a career-best 106 Equibase Speed Figure. O’Neill won back-to-back Big ’Caps in 2006 and 2007 with California-bred claimer-turned-powerhouse Lava Man.
Eclipse Sportswire

5. American Theorem (12-1)

Jockey: Mike Smith

Trainer: George Papaprodromou

Owner: Kretz Racing

Career record: 8 starts – 2 wins – 3 seconds – 0 thirds

Career earnings: $169,267

Earnings per start: $21,258

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 110

Pedigree: American Pharoah – Mighty Renee, by Maria’s Mon

Age: 5

Color: Gray or roan

Running style: Press the pace/stalker

Notable achievements and interesting facts: American Theorem figures to be one of the higher-odds horses in Saturday’s Big ’Cap coming off of a last-place effort in the Feb. 5 Grade 2 San Pasqual Stakes at Santa Anita, where he finished 13 ¼ lengths behind Express Train. In his defense, he encountered significant traffic trouble on the first turn of the 1 1/8-mile San Pasqual, losing momentum twice as other horses, including Express Train, moved in front of him to secure tactical position. In his start prior to the San Pasqual, he led from start to finish in a 1 1/16-mile allowance-optional claiming race at Santa Anita on Jan. 2, winning by 2 ¼ lengths under Smith. Look for “Big Money Mike” to put his mount into the race early and try to avoid any crowding. If he can get a clean trip, American Theorem could hang around long enough to fill out the superfecta or possibly trifecta, but that appears to be his ceiling. He is also entered in the Grade 2 San Carlos Stakes Presented by FanDuel earlier on Santa Anita’s March 5 card, and may start in that seven-furlong race instead. Smith won the Santa Anita Handicap three years in a row: 2013 and 2014 aboard Game On Dude and 2015 on Shared Belief.
Eclipse Sportswire

6. Express Train (8-5)

Jockey: Victor Espinoza

Trainer: John Shirreffs

Owner: C R K Stable

Career record: 16 starts – 6 wins – 4 seconds – 3 thirds

Career earnings: $935,800

Earnings per start: $58,488

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 110

Pedigree: Union Rags – I’m a Flake, by Mineshaft

Age: 5

Color: Bay

Running style: Stalker

Notable achievements and interesting facts: Express Train is a deserving favorite in the 2022 Santa Anita Handicap based on a career résumé that includes four Grade 2 victories. Two of those came in his starts leading up to Saturday’s race: a game nose win over top-class Hot Rod Charlie in the San Antonio Stakes at Santa Anita Dec. 26, when he overcame early crowding, and a dominant 3 ¼-length score in the San Pasqual Stakes on Feb. 22. In 2021, he won three of eight starts – two of them Grade 2 stakes – and came a half-length short of winning last year’s Santa Anita Handicap, taking a clear lead into the stretch but yielding to Idol. He sports a career record of three wins, three seconds, and two thirds in nine Santa Anita starts on the main track and, aside from a puzzling sixth-place finish as the favorite in last year’s TVG Pacific Classic, he’s hit the board in all of his appearances since making an unsuccessful turf start in October 2020. Express Train does have a habit of getting into trouble early in his races, but he’s also shown the ability to overcome that adversity and he’s matched up well with Hall of Fame jockey Victor Espinoza, who rode him for the first time in January’s San Antonio and has kept the mount since. Look for him to sit off of the early leaders on the backstretch while racing two or three wide before he makes a bid for the lead on the far turn. Espinoza won the 2004 Big ’Cap on Southern Image and won again in 2018 on Accelerate.
Eclipse Sportswire

7. Kiss Today Goodbye (15-1)

Jockey: Kyle Frey

Trainer: Eric Kruljac

Owner: John Sondereker

Career record: 17 starts – 3 wins – 1 second – 3 thirds

Career earnings: $306,302

Earnings per start: $18,018

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 109

Pedigree: Cairo Prince – Savvy Hester, by Heatseeker

Age: 5

Color: Dark bay or brown

Running style: Closer

Notable achievements and interesting facts: After a successful 3-year-old season in 2020 highlighted by a win in the Grade 2 San Antonio Stakes, Kiss Today Goodbye has struggled to make much of an impression over the past 14 months, going winless in five starts at age 4 and finishing a non-threatening fifth of six in the Feb. 5 San Pasqual Stakes, defeated 7 ¼ lengths by Express Train. He finished second by a half-length to Azul Coast in the Grade 3 Native Diver Stakes at Del Mar last November, but truthfully that’s been his only quality start over the time period, as he’s been walloped by open lengths in every other race and was eased when trying for a repeat win in the San Antonio Dec. 26. This horse is a grinder who is a threat to hit the board with a late rally when he’s at his best … but those efforts have been hard to find recently. It would be a surprise to see him in the mix Saturday, even competing against a modestly accomplished field.
Eclipse Sportswire

8. Stilleto Boy (5-2)

Jockey: John Velazquez

Trainer: Ed Moger Jr.

Owner: Steve Moger

Career record: 13 starts – 2 wins – 3 seconds – 5 thirds

Career earnings: $833,175

Earnings per start: $64,090

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 117

Pedigree: Shackleford – Rosie’s Ransom, by Marquetry

Age: 4

Color: Chestnut

Running style: Stalker

Notable achievements and interesting facts: Stilleto Boy shapes up as the main challenger to Express Train in the Big ’Cap as he ships back to his West Coast base after running a competitive third in the lucrative Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes Presented by 1/ST BET Jan. 29 at Gulfstream Park. In the Pegasus, he was never a threat to front-running winner Life Is Good (nor was any other horse), but he did loom up to challenge Knicks Go for runner-up honors in the stretch before losing that spot to the 2021 Horse of the Year by a length. Prior to the Pegasus, Stilleto Boy ran in three consecutive Grade 1s in California, finishing second to Medina Spirit in the Awesome Again Stakes in October, fifth behind Knicks Go in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic in November, and then third to the now-sidelined speedball Flightline in the seven-furlong Runhappy Malibu Stakes on Santa Anita’s Dec. 26 opening-day card. Truth be told, Stilleto Boy was soundly defeated in all three of those races, and he was in the Pegasus as well. On the positive side, there is no superstar entered in Saturday’s Big ’Cap, which equates to a dose of class relief for this son of Preakness Stakes winner Shackleford, and the 117 Equibase Speed Figure he earned in the Pegasus five weeks ago is tops in the field. He’s a pick-up-the-pieces, hard-trying type who should benefit from getting Hall of Famer John Velazquez aboard. As such, Stilleto Boy is a logical horse to use in exacta and trifecta boxes with Express Train and a longshot or two.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robin Goodfellow's racing tips: Best bets for Saturday, March 5
By Sam Turner For The Daily Mail

ITCHY FEET (Kelso, 2.40) bids to end a winless sequence stretching back two years in the bet365 Premier Chase — and his time looks to have arrived.

Given the eight-year-old was thought good enough to run in the Marsh Novices’ Chase as a novice at the Cheltenham Festival, the barren spell represents a disappointing return for his team who fit him with blinkers for the first time.

In fairness to Itchy Feet, he has become somewhat of a twilight horse since — not good enough to win a handicap off his current rating or win off level weights in Graded company.

There have also been occasions when he has not helped himself, such as at Lingfield last time where he produced a rather laboured effort before finally running on to finish within three lengths of Two For Gold. Hopefully the headgear will help the lack of motivation mid-race which has held back the progress of Itchy Feet.

Trainer Olly Murphy has found a good opportunity and sends the selection into the unknown by allowing him to tackle three miles over fences for the first time.

The evidence from Itchy Feet’s Lingfield effort in January over two miles and six furlongs on desperate ground suggests that may produce a more positive result.

KELSO

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

1.00 Genuflex

1.32 Richmond Lake

2.05 Famous Bridge

2.40 Itchy Feet

3.15 Buveur D’Air

3.43 Gold Des Bois

4.25 Lucky Flight (nb)

GIMCRACK

1.00 Genuflex

1.32 Bold Endeavour

2.05 Famous Bridge

2.40 Itchy Feet

3.15 Cormier

3.43 Dino Velvet

4.25 Here We Have It



NEWBURY

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

1.15 Kauto Riko

1.50 Dublin Four

2.27 Mark Of Gold

3.02 Lord Baddesley

3.37 Dorking Boy

4.12 Soldier Of Destiny

4.47 Weveallbeencaught

GIMCRACK

1.15 Saint Xavier

1.50 Senior Citizen

2.27 Irish Hill

3.02 Black Poppy

3.37 Bold Plan

4.12 Major Dundee

4.47 Captain Destiny



SOUTHWELL

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

5.00 Catch My Breath

5.30 Guilin

6.00 Custard The Dragon

6.30 My Dubawi

7.00 Prince Abu

7.30 Airshow

8.00 Chief White Face

8.30 Tiger Jet

GIMCRACK

5.00 Antagonize

5.30 Red Kite

6.00 Custard The Dragon

6.30 My Dubawi

7.00 Man Of Riddles

7.30 Airshow

8.00 Chief White Face

8.30 Tiger Jet



LINGFIELD

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

12.49 Away Wit Da Fairys

1.24 Surrey Princess

1.59 Sir Joseph Swan

2.34 Marion’s Boy

3.09 Hope Springs

3.50 Strong Power

4.19 Witch Hunter

4.54 Famous Star

GIMCRACK

12.49 Reticent

1.24 Blazer Two

1.59 Sir Joseph Swan

2.34 Mordred

3.09 The Defiant

3.50 One Night Stand

4.19 El Caballo (nb)

4.54 Famous Star

Newmarket – 2.34 Obsidian Knight (nb); 4.19 Canonized (nap).


DONCASTER

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

1.45 Byzantine Empire

2.20 Get A Tonic

2.55 The Big Bite (nap)

3.30 Storm Control

4.05 Sultans Pride

4.40 Ask The Doc

5.15 Kentanddover

GIMCRACK

1.45 Universal Folly

2.20 Get A Tonic (nap)

2.55 Cedar Hill

3.30 Le Milos

4.05 Imphal

4.40 Silver Flyer

5.15 Theatre Man

Northerner – 4.05 Silva Eclipse (nb)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Saturday, March 5
Posted on March 4, 2022 by David Aragona

RACE 8: AMERICAN GENTLEMAN (#7)

Trash Talker could attract some support in this spot as he steps up in class to face N1X company. This isn’t the strongest race for the level, but it’s still a tougher field than Trash Talker defeated last time when he got loose on the front end here two weeks ago. He’s capable of running some competitive speed figures when things go his way, but he figures to get some early pressure here from Bustin Shout. I don’t trust him, and instead prefer horses that have competed against tougher fields at this level. That includes all three horses exiting the seventh race on Feb. 5. Castle Chaos is the one that figures to garner the most attention from that spot after finishing well to get up for third behind runaway winner Southern District. He got a little shuffled back on the turn, but that actually worked out for him because it allowed his rider to wheel him outside to the best part of the track. The inside was not the place to be on Feb. 5, as all of the best running was down out in the middle of the racetrack. For that reason, I want to give a shot to American Gentleman coming out of that race. A mile is probably too far for him anyway, but he was forced to gravitate towards the inside once he inherited the lead coming around the far turn, and he understandably faded late. I like the turnback in distance, and thought that he ran particularly well two back when closing after a wide trip to get up to win over Trash Talker. That’s proven to be a strong race, as the 5 runners who finished directly behind American Gentleman have returned to improve their speed figures in their next starts.

RACE 9: VENTI VALENTINE (#4)

Radio Days has been well-meant right from the start. She got bet down to favoritism in her career debut and didn’t disappoint. She then won as easily as could be over this track in December before tackling stakes foes in Florida. While she lost the G3 Forward Gal as the 3-5 favorite, she got bumped back to last at the start while the winner enjoyed a soft front-running trip. She’s always been cut out to go this far, and is consistently run the fastest speed figures, though it’s not as if she has a massive edge over this field. I expect her to be a very short price given the general hype around her, and I’m not sure her chances of winning are commensurate with heavy favoritism, though I do think she’s the horse to beat. Among the logical alternatives, I’m most against Magic Circle. She does figure to have a pace advantage, but I’m not thrilled her last race, in which she rode a rail bias and wasn’t able to improve on her top speed figure even with that boost. I prefer the two fillies drawn directly to her inside, and I’ll let price be my guide. I made Venti Valentine my top pick, since I do think she’s the second most likely winner. She was nearly perfect last year, beating NY-breds in her first couple of starts before just missing in the G2 Demoiselle. I thought that was a very game effort, in which she battled back valiantly after getting bumped in midstretch. She has been training in Florida through the winter and has looked strong in recent works, though there is a gap in her February training. The Jorge Abreu barn has been quiet lately, but that could just mean he’s gearing up with a spring push, which could kick off here. The other horse that I want to use is Morning Matcha. She’s run well in both of her local starts despite settling for second each time. Though she was unable to reel in Magic Circle last time, she was wide against the rail bias for the second half of that race. Turning back to the one-turn mile should suit her deep-closing style, though there isn’t much pace signed on.

RACE 10: BOLD JOURNEY (#8)

There is a ton of early speed signed on in this Gotham, which could force the hand of Dean’s List most of all. This runner has to be ridden aggressively as he ships up from Florida and stretches out from a pair of 6-furlong events. I like the tenacity that this colt displayed last time beating the talented Dean Delivers, and he does have a pedigree to suggest that a mile should be within his scope. Pletcher doesn’t have particularly strong stretch-out statistics, and the early pace pressure could be his undoing. The logical horse to beat from a trip standpoint is Morello. He’s one of the few major contenders who has shown the ability to pass horses and finish strongly. I like the way he overcame a poor start in his career debut, and he stepped forward from a speed figure standpoint in the Jimmy Winfield last time. The problem is that he just seems a little too obvious, and could be overbet for that reason. The short price that I don’t want is Rockefeller. I thought this horse was fortunate when he won the Nashua two back, and I didn’t like his effort in the Sham last time when barely holding second despite getting a perfect stalking trip. My top pick is Bold Journey. My initial reaction to his last race was that he may not way to go this far, but a closer look at the TimeformUS Pace Figures for the Gander Stakes reveals that he made a significant middle move to break the race open. He paid the price for that early acceleration in deep stretch. This time I think he’s going to be ridden a bit more conservatively. He’s not supposed to have any trouble with the distance as a half-brother to Americanrevolution, and his speed figures are right in line with those of the main players.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Jury: Bets and fades for Mar. 5TwinSpires Staff

March 4th, 2022

The TwinSpires Jury, consisting of James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson, are back with thoughts on an action-packed weekend that includes four Kentucky Derby (G1) preps, three Kentucky Oaks (G1) preps, and a variety of graded action for older horses on both dirt and turf.
Who is your best bet?

KR: The morning-line favorite in Saturday's Davona Dale (G2), #3 Girl with a Dream (3-1), doesn't strike me as one looking for the step up to a mile. Even if she isn't softened up by a longshot pace rival, she's facing several intriguing opponents poised to pounce. Among them is #6 Cocktail Moments, who reverts to one turn after a sneaky third in the Untapable S. at Fair Grounds.

VH: Although the class of field in the Buena Vista (G3) at Santa Anita, I'm not convinced that morning-line favorite #10 Going to Vegas (3-1) is as effective going a mile. Like last year, when she finished fourth in this race, this comeback looks like more of a stepping stone toward longer races later in the meet and in the year. Nine-to-10 furlongs proved her sweet spot last term when taking three graded stakes, including the Rodeo Drive (G1).
What else is worth noting?

JS: I've been underwhelmed by the lower Brisnet Speed ratings earned by Kentucky Derby contenders over the last couple of months, and none of the starters in Saturday's Fountain of Youth (G2) has registered a triple-digit figure this year. That adds anticipation to the seasonal debuts of juvenile graded winners #9 High Oak and #6 Rattle N Roll. Last seen romping in October's Breeders' Futurity (G1), Rattle N Roll is more accomplished, and will be a shorter price in the Fountain of Youth, but late runners are at a severe disadvantage going 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream. And with the April 9 Blue Grass (G1) being the main goal, Kenny McPeek won't have Rattle N Roll fully cranked. High Oak, who earned an excellent 97 Speed rating when posting a smashing win in the Saratoga Special (G2) last August but is unraced since exiting a fourth in the Hopeful (G1) with an injury, is more of a midpack stalker, and he needs to run well to prove he belongs at this level. Bill Mott, who opted for the Fountain of Youth over the one-turn Gotham (G3), isn't messing around, putting multiple five-furlong bullet works into High Oak, and the bay colt is eligible to outrun his 8-1 morning line odds.

KS: Gulfstream's interest on Saturday extends beyond the stakes action. Triple Crown winner Justify's half-brother, #7 Stage Raider, could kick off a productive four-year-old campaign in the eighth race, and a couple of seven-furlong maidens for sophomores have potential. The second race for fillies includes a few Kentucky Oaks nominees, and in the fourth, #2 Town Branch hopes to be an opening act for his full brother – #3 Speaker's Corner, the morning-line favorite in the Gulfstream Park Mile.

VH: I have a frustrating tendency to occasionally being ahead of the curve on some horses, backing them before they turn in a peak performance one or more starts later. One recent example was my selection of Cavalry Charge in a stakes at Fair Grounds in January in which he finished up the track, but followed up with a 35-1 shocker in a Grade 3. Needless to say, I didn't back him in the latter. This is my long-winded way of saying that I'll be interested to see the progression on Saturday of a pair of horses I endorsed on the Pegasus World Cup Turf card in late January. Both will be making their second starts off layoffs. #6 Gift List figures to be a shorter price this time around in the Honey Fox than she was in the Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G3), but #3 Glynn County figures much longer than 5-1 in the Mac Diarmida (G2) following a fifth-place run in the W.L. McKnight (G3).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aqueduct Picks: Gotham S. Saturday on March 5
By J.N. Campbell


Aqueduct Picks - Saturday, March 5, 2022

Race 1: 5-1-7-6
Race 2: 4-2-6-3
Race 3: 3-5-1-4
Race 4: 9-3-1-7
Race 5: 4-1-6-5
Race 6: 6-3-2-4
Race 7: 2-1-8-6
Race 8: 5-7-1/1A-6
Race 9: 2-5-6-4
Race 10: 9-5-10-8
**Most Likely Winner: Officiating #3 (Race 3)**
**Best Value: Bustin Shout #5 (Race 8)**

Most Likely Winner: (Race 3: Officiating #3, 3/1):

This 4-yr-old by Blame has some major ability and should give the rest of this field in the Grade 3 Tom Fool, a run for their money. Trained by the expansive-minded Saffie Joseph, he is looking to upset last year’s winner (who has returned), in Rob Atras’ Chateau #5. I think he has more than just a chance to do it because this sprint/router should enjoy the cutback after he ran 3rd in the Fred Hooper (G3) down at Gulfstream on the Pegasus WC undercard. I am not all that sure this is a tougher spot than that one … especially since this is only a 5-horse field. Manny Franco just needs to keep this one close (maybe 2-3 off the lead), and I think Joseph’s entry can make a go of this one. Looking back at his score in the Mr. Prospector (G3) … that bodes well, shipping up to New York. Joseph … his reach is growing.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #3



Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 8: Bustin Shout #5, 5/1):

I want to take a shot with this Bruce Levine-trained speedster because he might be sitting on go. He is one of those “house” horses that stays around during the winter months. With some early foot as an advantage, he might be able to take advantage of a favorable pace scenario that could develop. During last year’s Meet, he was solid at this exact level, and I believe that Trevor McCarthy can guide him to victory. The key will be the middle portion of this race. Move too early … he will use up his gas. Move too late … and there will be just too much ground to make up. Levine is a crafty fellow, and I am hoping this son of Bustin Stones is ready to go on Saturday.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #5 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)



Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 10: Dirt, 1 Mile, Gotham Stakes (G3), $300k, 3):

Like most turfwriting pundits, this is the week where I am wishing that the New York Racing Association would get their Kentucky Derby Series in gear when it comes to distances. I have no clue why the Remsen and the Withers Stakes are 1 1/8th? Then the Gotham comes around and the participants are forced to race along a 1-turn mile. It gets better … the Wood Memorial, which was dropped to a G2 a few years ago, is 1 1/8th … hmm … Come on NYRA! You guys have panache … don’t you? I digress … Coming into this G3, the Gotham S., we have a field of 10 that will be in search of Derby “Points” … 50-20-10-5 … to the top-4 … I mentioned earlier in the week, that barring some unforeseen alteration, I would be backing Steve Asmussen’s Morello #9. I stand by that selection … This colt by Classic Empire is not only well-bred, but in a pair of races at Aqueduct he was just magnificent. Peaking at the proper time, the step-up in class in the Jimmy Winkfield $150k was impressive. He cruised down the lane to a score by 5-lengths. Moving up to a mile is not an issue, and I fully expect Jose Lezcano to make a move by the turn, and throttle up. Using him on top is a must. The real question for me is what to do about Bob Baffert’s entry, Rockefeller #10. Winner in the Nashua (G3) two-back, he then tried to make the front in the Sham (G3) at Santa Anita, and could not keep pace with stablemate Newgrange. Now traveling “Back East,” with T-Mac aboard, he is going to try and make amends. I honestly do not think he has the ability to win in this spot. Still, this is Baffert, so using him is a must. As for one other entry, I particularly like Todd Pletcher’s Dean’s List #5. Here is a colt by Speightstown that might be better suited as a sprinter … His talent is undeniable, but he is a need-the-lead-type, and we don’t know how far he can go. Baffert v. Pletcher v. Asmussen … what a trio! Here is the bet …

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Trifecta Box, 5/9/10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oaklawn Picks: DiVito's long shot Mojo Man on March 5
By J.N. Campbell


Oaklawn Park Picks - Saturday, March 5, 2022

Race 1: 6-2-4-5
Race 2: 4-1-3-7
Race 3: 7-9-4-6
Race 4: 6-1-11-4
Race 5: 6-8-7-5
Race 6: 4-8-1-7
Race 7: 9-7-2-8
Race 8: 1-5-6-8
Race 9: 9-6-3-8
Race 10: 8-3-5-11
**Most Likely Winner: Connie K #4, 5/2 (Race 6) And Gar Hole #9, 2/1 (Race 9)**
**Best Value: Mojo Man #1 (Race 8)**

Most Likely Winners: (Race 6: Connie K #4, 5/2) and (Race 9: Gar Hole #9, 2/1)

The Downthedustyroad Breeders’ S. $150k and the Nodouble Breeders’ S. $150k are for Arkansas breds, and let’s face it, there is really only 1 horse in each race that is worth considering. Randy Morse’s Connie K #4 is just a monster, and John Ortiz’s Gar Hole #9 might be the best AR bred ever … I know! I am sure that both of these entries will get hammered at the windows because they have a burgeoning fan base. It is deserved. Maybe the play is to tote watch on Saturday … see if you could get 4/5 on either of them. That would be a gift, in my estimation.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #4 in R6, #9 in R9



Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 8: Mojo Man #1, 12/1):

Outside of the pair of ARK “Non-G” races, this one, an ALLW101k, could be a “feature” on any card. It has a nice group of older males that will be blowing and going down the backstretch. Oaklawn recently upped its purses in this category, and it is just another reason why they are the best of the best … I am going to make a bold statement in this spot, and go all in on a runner that I think is classy and ready to fire. I was behind Jimmy DiVito’s Royal Daaher a couple of weeks ago, and I think his 7-yr-old gelding is in a similar spot. Whether he gets bet down from 12/1 is a question, but I don’t think that will happen. Most of the money here is going to flow towards Ron Moquett’s Seven Nation Army #5 and Cip Contreras’ Home Base #8. Don’t get me wrong … those are fine choices, but DiVito has some tricks up his sleeve. This seasoned runner is dropping down from a much tougher spot. The son of Stay Thirsty might not get Francisco Arrieta in the irons, but having Ricardo Santana aboard is not too shabby a replacement.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Win #1



Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 5: Dirt, 6F, St. ALLW10k, 4+):

One of the races that I think is a major value spot is this “Starter.” As I have mentioned before, these can be very difficult, but strong opinions will out. Thumbing through the form, look for Cipriano Contreras to have the favorite when the tote starts to flicker. At 5/2, I suppose One for Richie #7 should get the nod. After all, he has a pair of ALLW Co. races under his saddle. He won the 1st, and ended up 2nd by a whisker … The excellent Francisco Arrieta gets the call once again, and if he wins the break, it could be over in the initial furlong. I am willing to take this one on, because he just looks to be way too short of a price. Instead, I much prefer an 8-yr-old from Karl Broberg’s midst—Win With Pride #6. I interviewed one of the 501 Boys for a “Claiming Game” piece I did back in January, and they have such passion. This gelding by Distorted Humor was a regular up at NYRA last year, and he came to Oaklawn for his last race off-the-claim. That was a Clm16k against the likes of Town Champ and Storm Advisory. With Ramon Vazquez aboard, he rode the rail to a nice score. Now in this spot, Broberg goes with David Cabrera. The Texas-based conditioner has superb numbers with 2nd-timers like this, and he should be a great price at 5/1. A couple of other entries that I want to use are Norm McKnight’s Seau #8 (also by Distorted H.), and Ingrid Mason’s Tappin Fora Dance #5. Both of these are strong sprinters that could help us finish off our ticket. This race is going to be an absolute joy to watch … and bet on!

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Superfecta, 6 w 5/7/8 w 5/7/8 w 5/7/8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oaklawn Park Selections for March 5, 2022 – Horse Racing Picks

By Kyle E in Horse Racing — Mar 4th, 2022 10:10pm PST

Oaklawn Park Selections for March 5, 2022 – Horse Racing Picks

We have a stakes day on Saturday, with Santa Anita Park the place to be this weekend. There are nine racecourses in the US with stakes races today.

Industry Leading 9% Cashback!

If you want to disclude Fonner Park with their mini $15,000 stakes race then understood. From a $15,000 stakes event at Fonner Park to the $650,000 Santa Anita Handicap (Gr. 1), there is action on the card.

There is one Road to the Kentucky Derby prep race on Saturday. That is at Santa Anita Park as well, with the running of the $400,000 San Felipe Stakes (Gr. 2.). There are 50-20-10-5 points available in the San Felipe.

There are two $150,000 stakes races at Oaklawn Park on Saturday. We’re off to Oaklawn first on Saturday. They have a total of $683,000 in prize money on the card. Head below for our best Oaklawn Park picks on March 5, 2022.
Taking Your Horse Race Betting to the Next Level
Race 4
(1) Knight’s Cross
+600 (6/1)
(2) Hardly a Secret
+300 (3/1)
(3) Kierkegaard
+1200 (12/1)
(4) Gambler
+1500 (15/1)
(5) Splash for Gold
+800 (8/1)
(6) Eagle Pass
+400 (4/1)
(7) King Ford
+2000 (20/1)
(8) Private Lake
+3000 (30/1)
(9) That’s What I Say
+3000 (30/1)
(10) Sick Silver
+1000 (10/1)
(11) Jack’s Advantage
+800 (8/1)
(13) Dr. Forman
+350 (7/2)
(14) Love Nest
+600 (6/1)

Post Time: 2:33 p.m. CST
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles
Purse:$26,000

Race 4 is a 1 1/16 mile race for a $26,000 race at Oaklawn Park. Considerations should be made for Eagle Pass and Hardly a Secret.

Eagle Pass is 9 for 34 and looking for better recently after dropping grades. He finished 6th in three straight attempts, most recently on February 19 for a $26,000 prize.

Eagle Pass requires more to be competitive, but the talent is there. This isn’t the toughest field despite remaining in the same class. It could present an opportunity for Eagle Pass to steal one.

Hardly a Secret should be a tough out for all involved in Race 4. He is 13 for 53 in his career and finished 3rd, 6th, 5th in the last three events.

In his most recent attempt, Hardly a Secret was 5th on February 18 in a $29,000 assignment. He showed 3rd on December 4 for $42,000.

Hardly a Secret is more than capable at the $26,000 level. In a race where Hardly a Secret is getting good odds, the No. 2 must be considered.
The Bet
(2) HARDLY A SECRET
+300
Place Bet Now!
Race 5
(1) Press Snooze
+1200 (12/1)
(2) Wrongwayhighway
+2000 (20/1)
(3) Mr. Ankeny
+1500 (15/1)
(4) Don’t Forget
+400 (4/1)
(5) Tappin Fora Dance
+600 (6/1)
(6) Win With Pride
+500 (5/1)
(7) One for Richie
+250 (5/2)
(8) Seau
+450 (9/2)
(9) Bachelor Pad
+500 (5/1)

Post Time: 3:03 p.m. CST
Distance: 6 Furlongs
Purse:$29,000

Race 5 is a 6-furlong event with $29,000 in prize money. This one should be between Tappin Foradance and One for Richie at the wire.

Tappin Foradance is 4 for 22 and in good shape going into Saturday. The gelding finished in the top-3 in six of his previous seven attempts.

He is looking for his second straight win after scoring on February 12. Tappin Foradance beat Secretary at War by 2 ¾ lengths for $28,000. Not bad after showing 3rd in a $32,000 assignment.

One for Richie is 8 for 36 in his career with some momentum recently. He is 4th, 1st, 2nd in his previous three and top-2 in six of his last eight races.

One for Richie got in by 3 lengths in a $28,000 event over American Joey. Nice attempt and just missed out by 1 ¾ lengths in a $35,000 race on February 21.

Back down to $29,000, look at One for Richie to be a leading candidate to win.
The Bet
(7) ONE FOR RICHIE
+250
Place Bet Now!
Race 6 – Downthedusty Breeders’ Stakes
(1) Richness
+500 (5/1)
(2) Unbridled Twister
+800 (8/1)
(3) Starrgarita
+2000 (20/1)
(4) Connie K
+250 (5/2)
(5) Hillary G
+400 (4/1)
(6) Lady Astrid
+1200 (12/1)
(7) Too Pretty
+450 (9/2)
(8) Kaboom Baby
+300 (3/1)

Post Time: 3:33 p.m. CST
Distance:6 Furlongs
Purse:$150,000

The $150,000 Downthedusty Breeders’ Stakes goes for 6 furlongs on the dirt. Kaboom Baby and Connie K should be on point in this one.

Kaboom Baby is 2 for 7 in her career and finished in the top-3. The filly finished 1st, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd in her previous four outings.

In her most recent attempt, Kaboom Baby showed 3rd on February 12 for a $100,000 purse. This was after Kaboom Baby placed 2nd behind Melting Snow by a half-length for $100,000.

Connie K is 3 for 7 and looking for a hat-trick. She is 6th, 1st, 1st in her last three attempts. In her last race, Connie K defeated Big On Broadway by 7 ¾ lengths for a $100,000 purse. Impressive.

This was after Connie K had a 1 ¾ length win in a $72,000 race on January 8. She is in strong form and Saturday looks like another good day for a win.
The Bet
(4) CONNIE K
+250

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis

March 5, 2022 | By Al Cimaglia

Hawthorne Racecourse has a compact 8-race card scheduled with the 0.50 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 5. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 5

1-Illustrate (7-1)-This mare starts slow and likes to grind its way around. Did pace a .57 last half on 2-26 and the pace could be more lively tonight.
3-Lady In Fashion (5/2)-Ships back from MVR and Seekman steers. Has good speed and could be forwardly placed. Is 0-4 at Haw but has finished 2nd three times and should be in the hunt with this post draw.
5-Dilly Dilly Time (2-1)-Drew off by 4 in last to beat this kind. Team Leonard entry can stay good for another.

Race 6

4-Intoview (9/2)-This is the 4th start in the Finn barn for this 11-year-old and had excuses in the last 2 races. Will take a swing here in a race without a standout.
5-Rosey Time (5/2)-Has been close in the last 3 starts and figures to be in the mix. Using but not embracing the short price.
7-Finleys Filly (7/2)-Recent form has been dull but this is a soft spot. Leonard should be more aggressive versus this crew.

Race 7

7-Rollin Coal (6-1)-This mare can win with a top effort and a sharp steer. The price should be right and there should be an honest pace. Franco needs to be in striking range as this 7-year-old can roll late in a big way.
10-Maggie Rhee (9/2)-Has been an odds-on choice in the last 2 and has burned money. Made a rare break in last but comes right back. Warren owns, trains, and drives so will trust this mare will be ready to go and the price should be much better tonight.

Race 8

5-Fox Valley Bristol (3-1)-Has raced well in both Haw starts and comes off a win from post 8. Likes the Stickney oval and has hit the board in 10 of 17 with 4 pictures.
7-Ideal's Nicole (6-1)-Comes off a sharp with versus this kind and Bates takes a seat looking for another win. Looks like a main player with a fair trip.
9-Fox Valley Lolo (9/2)-Lost to #7 in last after taking the lead down the lane. The price should be much better than 3/2 this time and Leonard should be rolling late.

0.50 Late Pick 4

1,3,5/4,5,7/7,10/5,7,9
Total Bet=$27

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Coast-to-Coast Dirt Pick 5

March 5, 2022 | By Frank Carulli

COAST-TO-COAST DIRT PICK 5 ANALYSIS
Saturday, March 5, 2022

The Coast-to-Coast Dirt Pick 5 features four Grade II stakes and the Grade I Santa Anita Handicap to close the sequence. Total purse money for the five races is $1.875 million. A winning $1 wager on the Dirt Pick 5 could also produce a blockbuster payout with 44 entrants in the five races and a low 12% wager takeout. Here’s an early look at the action:

Leg A (Santa Anita, race 4, 4:28 EST) -- SHOOTERS SHOOT settled into a 3-wide stalking trip after he was crowded between rivals early in the G-III Palos Verdes at 6F. He ranged up into a contested pace for the stretch drive, made a run at the stubborn 9-to-5 winner and earned the top speed figure of his career by finishing second by a neck. He gets ample pace to run at in the G-II San Carlos today and an extra furlong to cover in his second start off the claim. CEZANNE finished 2-3/4 lengths behind Shooters Shoot off a nine-month layoff. He was put to a drive on the turn and no serious threat as the odds-on favorite, but the lightly-raced 5-year-old finished well. He won a 6-1/2F, G-III stakes in his only start last year, running away from speedball BRICKYARD RIDE, who starts from the rail in his San Carlos title defense.

LEG B (Gulfstream Park, race 10, 4:40 EST) -- SPEAKER’S CORNER set a faster pace than it visually appeared in the hand-timed, G-III Fred Hooper Stakes at one mile. He came under siege on the turn, but dug in resiliently to hold off late-running FEARLESS, a multiple graded stakes winner and proven miler. COLLABORATE caught the eye in a 6-1/2F allowance victory off a five-month layoff. He was blocked behind a wall of horses before exploding through a seam in early stretch to win going away in mid-track.

LEG C (Santa Anita, race 6, 5:30 EST) -- FORBIDDEN KINGDOM, troubled at the start in both 2-year-old stakes tries last year, ran to his workouts and sped off to a clean, 7F victory in the G-II San Vicente in his seasonal debut. Trainer Richard Mandella excels on the sprint-to-route and second-off-the-layoff angles. No one else in the G-II San Felipe field has won a stakes on the main track, but DOPPELGANGER was favored against Forbidden Kingdom after an impressive debut win and has fired three bullet workouts since then. His stablemate, ARMAGNAC, is the only entrant to win at today’s distance, going wire-to-wire with first-time Lasix. WORSE READ SANCHEZ showed marked improvement with blinkers on the turf, albeit in state-bred competition, and makes the ticket at 20-1 on the morning line.

LEG D (Gulfstream Park, race 12, 5:42 EST) -- On January 28, HIGH OAK was 150-1 at a major Las Vegas sportsbook to win the Kentucky Derby; today, he is 27-1, with only 10 runners at lower odds. Someone likes what they’ve seen, so follow the money as High Oak, one of two graded stakes winners in today’s Fountain Of Youth Stakes, makes his seasonal debut. RATTLE AND ROLL did just that when last seen winning the G-I Breeders Futurity at Keeneland, saving ground to the final turn and inhaling the leaders with a 4-wide sweep to command at today’s distance.

LEG E (Santa Anita, race 11, 8:00 EST) -- WARRANT was unraced as a 2-year-old, but the now 4-year-old multiple stakes winner has progressed steadily for Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox. He was no match for multi-millionaire Mandaloun and five-time, Grade I-placed Midnight Bourbon in the Grade III Louisiana Stakes January 22 at the Fair Grounds, but he is a major player with continued improvement and the track’s leading jockey, Flavien Prat, summoned to ride. EXPRESS TRAIN held a clear stretch lead in last year’s Big ‘Cap but settled for second, beaten a half-length. He added two more Grade II victories at Santa Anita to his resume since then, including a nose victory over G-I winner Hot Rod Charlie (4-14, $2.7 million) in the San Antonio Stakes. Looking for a longshot? Look no farther than WHY WHY PAUL WHY, who won 5 of 6 route races at Parx by a combined 24-1/2 lengths in the second half of last year and finished second in the 1-1/8-mile Jazil Stakes at Aqueduct, earning his fourth, 90-plus Beyer speed rating in his last five starts. His enters the barn of California-based trainer Michael McCarthy and is worth a price shot in his biggest class test to date.

Suggested Ticket:
Leg A: 4, 9
Leg B: 3, 4, 8
Leg C: 2, 3, 5, 6
Leg D: 6, 9
Leg E: 2, 3, 6
Cost for $1 ticket: $144

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fair Grounds - Race #4
Picks Notes
#5 Fort Polk This looks like a pretty top heavy race with a pair of runners who figure to hit hard, but this mare might be the slight second choice, and she beat the likely chalk on the grass recently.
#6 Net a Bear Figure one of the top two will land this, but she figures to get bet a bit more and doesn't have to win this as the top choice brings competitive running lines. Beat her to score.
#4 Blessed Anna Tactical player should land a good trip with these, but her ceiling might be just a slight cut below the top pair in here. Figures for a piece, but guessing she'll have to settle underneath.
Race Summary Fort Polk and Net a Bear are both in good form right now, but the former may be a slightly better price and looks most likely to get the best of the chalk.

Fair Grounds - Race #6
Picks Notes
#4 Magician Stone His only turf try produced a nice upset score at Arlington last summer, and I wonder if he can bounce back here after a dull stakes try on the main track last out. Interesting from close range.
#7 Dowagiac Chief He has been pretty tough outside of tougher stakes company in recent starts, and he has the right kind of pace to get in the mix early from this draw. That said, he'll get bet, and he might have some company near the top -- a concern for a guy who does his best work on the lead.
#2 Tommy Bee He just rolled a short bunch on the main track, but he has some okay back turf form that might make him a player here if he can transfer his sharp recent run back to this footing.
Race Summary Magician Stone might be the right kind of price to see if he can get a good first-over trip while trying two turns for the first time, and his pedigree suggests the turf may really end up being his home.

Fair Grounds - Race #8
Picks Notes
#6 Who Took the Money Don't think this guy is going to get beat in this spot, and the price on the board will likely reflect that. He has handled many of these in recent starts and should get a decent pace to chase today.
#2 Behemah Star He has the right kind of positional pace to work out a trip that gives him first jump on the top choice, and he seems like a really solid riser after another good effort last time out. Solid underneath play in the exacta.
#7 Mangelsen Speed can be all or nothing, and he faded late when facing some of these in December. Still, he has that sharp pace and can get brave on occasion. One of the more logical potential upsetters.
Race Summary Who Took the Money looks tough at a short price, as there is enough pace in here to give him a chance from off the splits. I'll work to get Behemah Star in the exacta with the heavy chalk.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Meadowlands - Race #1
Picks Notes
#3 JUST N ACE Far back most of way, ran into stretch traffic, finished willingly.
#5 COOL BLUES MAN Gapped 3-deep on rail, angled to 3-path in early stretch, surged into photo-finish view.
#2 WINDSONG JACK Transition from half-mile ovals for hot barn, seeks 41st win.
Race Summary Just N Ace took back to seventh off the gate, was unhurried until the stretch, then was blocked with run while racing into a strong headwind. He gets Tetrick and is worth a win and place bet at an inflated price.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#8 EAST END Classy 9yo backed-pedaled two back but ran away from lesser in latest.
#1 CENTURY FURY Rallied for four seconds in a row, three at double-digit odds.
#4 PRICELESS BEACH Left too much work to do as the beaten fave on drop to this level.
Race Summary East End took money and backed up suddenly from a good striking position on the final turn two starts back. He re-awakened with a runaway win on the class drop and has plenty of back-class to take on better rivals tonight. Play an 8 with 1,4 with ALL trifecta.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #10
Picks Notes
#1 ARTISTIC PICK Holds tactical edge in pace-less race, price attached.
#2 HOOTER SHOOTER Picked up live cover, ran late scare into drifting winner.
#7 ATTHEBEACH HANOVER Finished ahead of top one, starts outside.
Race Summary Artistic Pick was no threat in the fastest division of the Pop Up series last week, but he figures to be put into play early in this spot and could factor at big odds despite a 1-for-24 record the last two years. Play a 1-2-7 exacta box.