Saturday 3/5/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jeff Nahill’s Santa Anita opinions for Saturday, March 5

FIRST RACE: 9-8-12-7

SECOND RACE: 4-5-2-6

THIRD RACE: 1-8-5-3

FOURTH RACE: 4-9-3-7

FIFTH RACE: 10-5-7-4

SIXTH RACE: 3-5-6-2

SEVENTH RACE: 1-9-5-7

EIGHTH RACE: 11-4-10-2

NINTH RACE: 3-5-6-1

10TH RACE: 4-8-7-1

11TH RACE: 3-6-8-2 (BEST BET)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Nahill’s Gulfstream Park (Races 5-13) opinions for Saturday, March 5 (Plus Gotham and Turfway races)

GULFSTREAM PARK

RACE 5: 6-5-2-7

RACE 6: 6-5-2-7

RACE 7: 2-9-6-8

RACE 8: 2-7-4-9 (BEST BET)

RACE 9: 9-7-3-11

RACE 10: 8-3-4-7

Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. has 3 horses and Mike Maker has 2. Just great.

RACE 11: 1-8-5-7

This one is worse: Joseph has 5 horses and Todd Pletcher 3.

RACE 12: 8-4-6-3

RACE 13: 3-5-12-9

AQUEDUCT

RACE 10 (GOTHAM): 10-4-5-7

I don’t know if No. 7 Noneedtoworry (30-1) is good enough but he comes out of Withers, which produced last week’s Oaklawn bomber.

TURFWAY PARK

RACE 5 (Battaglia): 4-5-10-12

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Frank Sawyer

Mar 05 '22, 5:10 PM in 1h
NBA | Kings vs Mavs
Play on: Mavs -7 -109 at BetCris

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 3/5:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday was with the Dallas Mavericks minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings. Dallas (38-25) has won five of their last six games with their 122-113 victory against Golden State as a 2-point favorite. The Mavericks are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. Sacramento (24-41) has won two of their last three games with their 115-112 victory at San Antonio as a 6.5-point underdog on Thursday. But the Kings have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win. Sacramento has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Take Dallas minus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

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Stephen Nover

Mar 05 '22, 6:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | North Carolina vs Duke
Play on: North Carolina +11½ -110 at Mirage

Emotions are sure to run high at Cameron Indoor Stadium as this will be the final home game for Mike Krzyewski at Duke where he's been for the last 42 seasons.

But from a betting standpoint, I find this line to be inflated because of that.
What needs to be kept in mind is that Duke has won the ACC regular season title. The Blue Devils will be the No. 1 seed in the ACC Conference Tournament. What hasn't been determined is who will be the No. 2 seed? North Carolina is in the running for that.
The Tar Heels are in a good place right now emotionally and physically, winners of four in a row. They also have added revenge motivation for an 87-67 humiliating home loss to Duke a month ago. North Carolina was 3 1/2-point underdogs. Now look at the spread. So, yes, I'd say there's line inflation.

North Carolina's guards Caleb Love and R.J. Davis, who together produce nearly 30 points a game, missed a combined seven of eight shots from 3-point range in that game despite having good looks. I'm expecting better shooting from them. They'll be helped by Brady Manek, who is 21-for-39 (54%), from the field in his last three games and has hit eight shots from beyond the arc during this span.
Krzyzewski is going to be honored during a special pregame ceremony. Duke will be fired-up to win for him. But this also could be a distraction along with putting added pressure on the Blue Devils.
Bottom line, this line is inflated because of this. So I'm involved with the Tar Heels.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee

Mar 05 '22, 6:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | Vanderbilt vs Ole Miss
Play on: Vanderbilt +1½ -110 at Mirage

FREE PICK: Vanderbilt Commodores +1.5
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 705
I'll take my chances with Vanderbilt as a 1.5-point road dog against Ole Miss on Saturday. On paper it looks like both of these teams have really stumbled to the finish line. The Commodores are just 1-5 over their last 6 games and the Rebels are 1-7 in their last 8.
I just think for Vanderbilt it's been more about the schedule. Their largest loss during this run has been by 14 at Auburn. They only lost by 9 at Tennessee, by 2 at home to Alabama, by 5 at Miss St and by 4 to Florida.
As for Ole Miss, their downfall has really coincided with the loss of their best player, Daeshun Ruffin. While they do have a couple of OT losses to Florida and South Carolina, 4 of their last 6 losses have come by double-digits, including each of the last 3.
Vandy is also a team that has played well on the road in SEC play, covering 13 of their last 18 away from home in conference games. They are also 12-3 ATS in their last 15 after losing 5/6 of their last 7 games. Give m the Commodores +1.5!

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Dustin Hawkins

Mar 05 '22, 6:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | Arkansas State vs Georgia State
Play on: Georgia State -3½ -110 at Mirage

1 Dimer on Georgia State -3½ -110

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Kyle Hunter

Mar 05 '22, 6:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | Northern Colorado vs Montana State
Play on: Northern Colorado +6½ -110 at Mirage

*Free Play on Northern Colorado* The Montana State Bobcats have locked up the Big Sky Conference regular season title. Northern Colorado is in a 3 way tie for the second seed in the Big Sky Tournament. The Bears have a lot more to play for than Montana State in this one.
Northern Colorado has the best player on the floor in Daylen Kountz. He should be able to do some damage against a Montana State team that doesn't have any great shot blockers.
Northern Colorado is getting a couple too many points here given the situational spot.
Take Northern Colorado.

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Cole Faxon

Mar 05 '22, 6:00 PM in 2h
Soccer | Atlanta United vs Colorado Rapids
Play on: Atlanta United +280 at Mirage

FREE PLAY on Atlanta United +280

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ASA

Mar 05 '22, 6:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | Northern Colorado vs Montana State
Play on: Northern Colorado +6 -110 at linepros

#699 ASA FREE PLAY ON Northern Colorado +6 over Montana State, Saturday at 6 PM ET - This is a much bigger game for Northern Colorado. A win here and they finish in 2nd place in the Big Sky tied with the winner of the Southern Utah vs Weber State game. Montana State, on the other hand, has already clinched the conference title and the #1 seed in the Big Sky tourney starting next week. The Bears have proven they can get it done on the road with a 7-2 record in conference play. The top 6 teams in this conference are Montana State, Weber State, Southern Utah, Northern Colorado, Eastern Washington, and Montana. The Bears are 5-0 SU on the road vs those teams with only 1 remaining and that’s tonight @ Montana State. They have a positive point differential of +5.5 PPG on the road in conference play. They just topped Montana on the road Thursday night and now make the short trip (200 miles) to Bozeman to face State 2 days later. That’s an EASY scheduling spot comparted to what Montana State has faced this week. The Bobcats already played Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday of this week so this will be their 4th game in 7 days. They just clinched the conference title on Thursday night so a letdown is in order. MSU is a solid 8-1 SU at home in Big Sky play but most of their wins have been tight with 6 of those 8 coming by 7 points or less. Northern Colorado can score points averaging a league high 81 PPG. They rank #1 in the conference in offensive efficiency, eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. Laying 6 here is too many and we’ll grab the points.

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Hunter Price

Mar 05 '22, 6:00 PM in 2h
Soccer | DC United vs FC Cincinnati
Play on: DC United +125 at linepros

1* Free Pick on DC United +125

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Jeff Hochman

Mar 05 '22, 7:05 PM in 3h
NHL | Bruins vs Blue Jackets
Play on: Bruins -1½ +135 at Mirage

1*Boston Bruins -1.5 (+135)
The Boston Bruins own a +327 shot differential this season, while Columbus is -323 this season. Columbus ranks dead last in shots against (1,930), thru games played Thursday. Columbus is just 2-5 SU when playing without rest this season. The Bruins have dominated teams on the second game of a back-to-back. The Bruins are ranked 4th in Face-off win percentage, while the Blue Jackets are ranked No. 17 this season. Boston wins 4-1!

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Marc Lawrence

Mar 05 '22, 7:10 PM in 3h
NBA | Spurs vs Hornets
Play on: Spurs +4 -110 at Caesars

Play - San Antonio Spurs (Game 535).
Edges - Spurs: 100-76-1 ATS in non-division games with seams season revenge from a loss of 14 or more points … Hornets: 7-27 SU and 12-20-2 ATS in this series; and 1-5 ATS on Saturdays… With the Spurs playing with revenge from a 16-point home loss to Charlotte earlier this season, we recommend a 1* play on San Antonio. Thank you and good luck as always.

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Sean Murphy

Mar 05 '22, 8:30 PM in 4h
NCAA-B | Mississippi State vs Texas A&M
Play on: UNDER 134½ -110

Saturday CBB Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Mississippi State and Texas A&M at 8:30 pm et on Saturday.
Both of these teams have been trending to the 'over' lately with Mississippi State having seen its last two games go 'over' the total and Texas A&M coming off four consecutive 'over' results. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday, however. Mississippi State averages just 23 made field goals including only four made threes per game on the road this season. In their last five road games, the Bulldogs have knocked down only 19, 18, 21, 26, 19 and 19 field goals, scoring more than 65 points only once over that stretch. Here, they'll face a stingy Texas A&M defense that yields just 22 made field goals per game at home this season. The Aggies have shot the lights out in their last three contests (54% or better in all three games), fuelling their recent run of 'over' results. I do expect them to suffer from some regression here, and it's worth noting that they haven't been playing at an incredibly fast pace, attempting fewer than 59 field goals in each of their last five games. Take the under.

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Jack Jones

Mar 05 '22, 9:00 PM in 5h
NCAA-B | St. John's vs Marquette
Play on: Marquette -4 -110 at Caesars

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Marquette -4
This looks like a good spot to 'buy low' on the Marquette Golden Eagles. They have gone 2-4 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall to fall dangerously close to the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. I look for them to punch their ticket with a win and cover at home on Senior Day against St. John's.
The Golden Eagles saw all four of those losses come on the road. They are 12-3 at home this season and face a St. John's team that has struggled on the highway. The Red Storm are 4-6 in true road games this season with two of those wins coming against Georgetown and Butler.
St. John's is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 games after scoring 75 points or more in four straight games. The Red Storm are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games after failing to cover two of their last three games against the spread. St. John's is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or better.
The Golden Eagles are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. The home team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Bet Marquette Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

AAA Sports

Mar 05 '22, 10:05 PM in 6h
NHL | Flames vs Avalanche
Play on: Avalanche -145 at William Hill

1* FREE PLAY Avalanche.
The Flames are coming off a 5-4 OT loss at home to the lowly Canadiens, likley getting caught looking ahead to this much more difficult contest in Colorado. I think Calgary is going to suffer another letdown here too. The Flames are back at home against division rival Edmonton, setting this up as another potential look-ahead spot. The Avs are 23-3-1-1 at home and they'll be out to atone fora poor 2-1 loss at Arizona in their last outing. I think this is a reasonable price; consider Colorado!
AAA Sports