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I like this game at ML folks….+2.5 is excellent….but to make this the 10 UNIT or bigger play we're putting out there…. we're going back in time a bit, early this morning, when this line popped OVER +3.5, then quickly went right back down…and is dropping now as you read this…. so lock in what you feel MOST COMFORTABLE….
ML = 3 or 4 UNIT-esque play
+2/+2.5 = 5+ UNIT play
+3 or more = 10 UNIT or much bigger play…not that I'm recommending a ton bigger….but the VALUE roes….and if this a % play and not Unit I would never say to go north of the “largest”
Anyway…
The Dolphins and Knights are on opposite sides of the ASun league so they played just once so far this season….and it was an OT win for Bellarmine in Louisville!
2 important things to note for today's slate:
For some reason the ASun and NEC BOTH still have even the title game on the “home team's" court , even tonight….meaning Bellarmine and Bryant being listed second at the books…..DOES indicate they are HOME!
Second…Bellarmine is, maybe unbeknownst to some, new to D1, and win, lose, or draw tonight, cannot play in any form of postseason! This is likely a dumber rule than has been concocted by the NCAA…but is in fact…the..well…FACTS!
To ADD to the inanity, but understandably confusing I suppose, of tonight's title game….Bellarmine and Jacksonville ended league play with identical 11-5 records…so the team hosting tonight is based upon who won the regular season matchup….THAT WAS A HOME GAME FOR BELLARMINE!!!!
Find this conference a neutral damn place to play a quick 3 day tournament for the LOVE OF GOD!
Any way…I digress….
Both teams also got here by defeating teams ahead of them…
Bellarmine went into Liberty….the stalwart and regular representative of the ASun in the Big Dance….winning the tourney all 3 years they've been a part of.the league…in ‘19, ’20**, and '21 even with a win over Ole Miss in the 2019 NCAAs! They held Liberty to 50 total points and also won the game despite being down by double figures!
Jacksonville…on the other end…went to ALABAMA (not a Florida rival…or really even nearby or anything rival!)…as it is actually a 7 hour bus ride up north to face the conference foe. However, JState WON the regular season league title and also beat the Flippers the only time they played them as well….AT HOME in Alabama!
Extra incentive motivation to counter the possible letdown/lack of motivation on the other side for the Knights…off the huge win over Liberty with “nothing” to play for….if Jacksonville cannot defeat Bellarmine tonight (we hope so and are playing the ML smaller but we don't NEED it per se)….the NCAA Tournament rep from the ASun will NOT be the runner up to tonight's championship game…no no no….it will be the TEAM THE DOLPHINS JUST DEFEATED….FAIR & SQUARE….ON THEIR HOME COURT….THE GAMECOCKS OF JACKSONVILLE STATE!
If that ain't some extra added motivation…..alright…now let's use the numbers….as they have us arriving the MOST.to.this 10 UNIT SPOT!
Last 5 games
Equal offensive efficiency….
96 defensive efficiency for Jacksonville
118 defensive efficiency for Bellarmine (#340)
46% EFG against for Jacksonville
59% EFG against for Bellarmine (#341)
Jacksonville with a 40% offensive rebounding rate…and low turnover rate for each….with the Knights coming in at #358 of 358 in FT rate…attempting 12 FT per 100 FGA the past 5 games!
The Dolphins are a nasty suffocating perimeter defense and also don't put opponents at the line….where Bellarmine already can't or won't go anyway!
This all adds up and more I won't get into as you're EXHAUSTED by now….to my FAVORITE play in a while….probably as much of a +EV play as the LaSalle winner fro Saturday….considering we don't HAVE to have a win!
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