Saturday 3/26/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DRF's Horse Racing Playbook for Saturday, March 26, 2022
DRF Staff

Daily Racing Form has served as the most trusted source of news and information about the sport since 1894, and moving forward we have decided to provide a free daily playbook – something that both hardcore horseplayers and casual observers can reference to get informed of each day’s action.

12:40 LRL 1st AREEMAA (#2, 12-1) took advantage of a pace-less race over a speed-favoring track when taking basement "two-life" claimers all the way going a one-turn mile. Don't expect that kind of trip cutting all the way back to this sharp six furlongs, but she's done well from off the lead in the past, has several back numbers that make her competitive, and should be running on in the lane. -Dan Illman | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

1:05 GP 1st GLORY AND VICTORY (#1, 5-1) did not run badly in key race, this level, on 2/25 when hung wide and failing to switch leads down the lane. Might be ready for best yet having reportedly been gelded since his last. -Mike Welsch | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

1:16 TAM 3rd KISSMELIPS (#6, 6-1) is winless on the main track but she has largely faced better, and she had a tough trip the last time she raced on dirt, at Parx; should be prominent from the start, an edge in a race lacking speed, and this barn does well with horses making this surface switch. -Kenny Peck3:02 OP 3rd EV'S SHERMAN (#6, 4-1) has natural speed, and draws outside most of his rivals. WHELEN SPRINGS cuts back to one turn and figures to be making his case through the lane. -Mary Rampellini | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

3:50 TAM 8th EL FANTASMA (#2, 8-1) threw a clunker in his latest, which is tough to figure as there was no apparent excuse, but the track was wetter than the "good" designation might suggest, and he did bobble a few strides out of the gate; perhaps those are flimsy excuses but the fact is his prior Beyers are good enough to win this, if he can run to them. -Kenny Peck | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

3:54 AQU 6th BABY I'M PERFECT (#8, 7-2) has been first or second in all four starts over sprint distances in NY since arriving last summer, including an easy, front-running score going seven in November, after which he took a game run at the in-form Aristocratic and was just denied late; ships back in after facing tougher in two starts at Oaklawn recently and he is perfectly drawn outside. -Mike Beer | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

4:06 GP 7th In a race loaded with speed, COMEDIC (#9, 9-2) might be worth a look at a square price coming off late running maiden win on the Tapeta. Handled turf nicely to kick off her career. -Mike Welsch | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

4:25 AQU 7th OK HONEY (#8, 7-2) is just 6 for 58 overall, but she has now won three of her last six starts after running away from entry-level NY-bred fillies off the claim last time going a mile; has traded decisions with logical contender Bustin Bay recently but might have run the best race both times, as she was chasing wide on a day when the rail was strong two back; five of her six career wins have come over wet tracks, but she isn't significantly slower on fast dirt and she can handle this cut back in distance. -Mike Beer | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

4:48 LRL 9th CROUCHELLI's (#1, 8-1) most recent victory came after a 69-day layoff and he'll now return from 64 days away at a very comfortable distance. Finished behind Gentleman Joe last time and that gelding returned to run third in the John B. Campbell Stakes with a 97 Beyer. His lack of speed often puts him behind the eight ball so he'll need some pace help in order to adequately setup his late bid. -Dan Illman | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

4:50 TAM 10th JIMMY D (#5, 3-1) was so much the best in that January 23rd win over this course, overcoming a brutal trip to get up in time, and he ran well in defeat in his return at Gulfstream, closing some after racing behind a controlled pace; he was no threat last time but that was a race rained off the turf, and he can rebound today with a clean trip and an honest pace to chase. Also using MOTATAABEQ (#6, 8-1), who was sharp in defeat in his latest. -Kenny Peck | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

5:19 LRL 10th R TRUE SENSATION (#3, 6-1) dueled through fast fractions while outside of 8 to 1 shot Danny Deep Cuts (finished last), dispatched that foe in upper stretch and held well for third behind the two favorites. Low-profile connections usually ensure a good price on a mare with fine early speed. -Dan Illman | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

5:32 AQU 9th MORE GRAYTFUL (#4, 5-1) rated the break last time and wound up paying the price as the in-form Whistling Birds took control and wired the field; still took a run at that rival around the turn before flattening out; doesn't need the lead, but there is no reason to concede anything from the start and he has run races in the past that will give him a chance in here at a fair price; giving him the chance off the claim for solid Ten Strike/Giangiulio team. -Mike Beer | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

6:03 AQU 10th DIRECT ORDER (#4, 5-1) rallied into a fast pace to score going a mile two back, then was in a more tactical ace last time and couldn't make a late impact from last; has shown more tactical speed in the past and cutting back to seven should not be an issue as he goes off the claim for Nevin. -Mike Beer | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

6:14 GP 11th CELESTIAL CITY (#8, 9-2) and CALLOWAY PEAK (#9, 10-1) a couple of decently bred 3yos coming off even efforts in their debuts. Expecting improvement from both, might vie for major prize if they do. -Mike Welsch | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

6:39 SA 6th This maiden-40 sprint is a good spot to take a shot. DESERVEDLY (#4, 4-1) drops to a new low class level, adds blinkers and goes route to sprint. The best race of his career was a sprint on this track; the pace should be quick enough to flatter his closing rally. This is his second start since he was gelded. -Brad Free | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

6:40 OP 10th DEPART (#7, 9-2) might be sitting on a peak effort in his third start since July. -Mary Rampellini | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

MED (Harness) 8:20 7th IM A POWERPLAY A (#4, 12-1) elected to take back from post 10 last time following a five-week break in action. Still, he came home in 26 2/5 in a steady mile and all systems should be on go now from post 4. – Derick Giwner | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

WBS (Harness) 9:10 7th GREAT SOMEWHERE (#5, 9-2) looked like he was about to take over the front end at the 3/4 pole and sprint off to a win when the leader broke and carried him about 10 lanes wide, costing him all chance. Facing similar here, I’ll give him the nod. – Garnet Barnsdale

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aqueduct Picks: Full slate for the Claiming Championship Series on March 26
By J.N. Campbell


Aqueduct Picks - Saturday, March 26, 2022

Race 1: 4-2-5-1/1A
Race 2: 4-2-3-5
Race 3: 3-1-2-4
Race 4: 5-7-8-2
Race 5: 4-5-8-6
Race 6: 8-6-7-9
Race 7: 4-3-8-1
Race 8: 7-5-1/1A-4
Race 9: 1-5-7-3
Race 10: 10-7-4-1/1A
**Most Likely: Baby I'm Perfect #8 (Race 6)**
**Best Value: Smile Bryan #3 (Race 3)**

Most Likely Winner: (Race 6: Baby I’m Perfect #8, 7/2):

Here is a consistent “Claiming” horse that now gets a shot in the tougher “Claiming Championship Series” … or is it? Wayne Potts continues to have a strong Meet in Ozone Park, and simultaneously at Oaklawn Park. This gelding by Flower Alley is a transfer coming up from Arkansas after running in a tough Starter Allowance down in Hot Springs. That race was probably tougher than this one because races down there at this level are really wide-open affairs. The 3rd place runner in that race, Cumberland Avenue, just came back and won nicely @OP, for instance. With a pair of AQU races under his saddle already, I am sure that Potts has this one ready to fire. He would not haul In Front Stables’ runner all the way up to New York for nothing. Dylan Davis gets the mount, and he is riding with a ton of confidence.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #8



Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 3: Smile Bryan #3, 6/1):

Coming into this “starter” stakes, I like the last out performance by Mike Miceil’s 6-yr-old by Goldencents. Even though that was a turf race that took place back in early December, this one should be rested and ready to compete. With a steady work tab over at Belmont, his maturity over these past few months could win out against a group like this one. Manny Franco rode her back at Belmont, and he is making a late run for the Winter Meet riding title. At odds of 6/1, or higher, this one could be a great price come post time.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #3 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)



Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 9: Dirt, 7F, Caixa Electronica S, $80k, 4+):

One of the many highlights on this Saturday card at “The Big A” is this race, an $80k “Non-G” event for older males. This should be a street fight between these 8 runners, and it looks like a pretty evenly-matched field. When it comes to class, I think Juan Vazquez’s Repo Rocks #5 will get bet down from 9/2 into oblivion. I could be wrong, but I think the fact that this gelding by Tapiture was up against the likes of Officiating and Chateau in the G3 Tom Fool H. last time, will sway many a bettor. I don’t want any part of this runner because I am not sure he is a sound play. Looking for value elsewhere seems like a much better idea. For my top selection, I decided to back Rob Atras’ Prince James #1. I am going to hope that this Tiznow 5-yr-old will get overlooked on the tote come Saturday. Manny Franco rides this one for a hot barn that always seems to deliver a sound race. The conditioner got aggressive with his new claim last time, sending him into an OC62.5n2x race after primarily competing in Claiming Co. Franco has some strong ability of late, and I am hoping that his mount will end up being 4/1 when they enter the gate. What his price is after they exit is perhaps a different story … but hope springs eternal. Here is the ice-cold wager …

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Exacta Cold, 1 w 5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gulfstream Park Picks: Ward's Lucci, Royal A alum on March 26
By J.N. Campbell


Gulfstream Park Picks - Saturday, March 26, 2022

Race 1: 5-1-7-6
Race 2: 2-5-1-3
Race 3: 8-5-1-9
Race 4: 1-2-7-5
Race 5: 5-4-7-2
Race 6: 1-3-2-4
Race 7: 6-4-9-2
Race 8: 5-6-1-3
Race 9: 6-7-5-2
Race 10: 4-5-9-3
Race 11: 6-3-8-12
**Most Likely Winner: Mystic Eyes #6 (Race 7)**
**Best Value: Mr. Extension #1 (Race 4)**

Most Likely Winner: (Race 7: Mystic Eyes #6, 3/1):

Trainer Todd Pletcher is poised for a big weekend, running all over the globe. Here is a filly by Maclean’s Music that has a strong dam side grass runner in Cloudburst by Storm Cat. Getting Javier Castellano, the HOF trainer is sending this one into the Melody of Colors $75k after competing in some stiff stakes competition at Saratoga, Kentucky Downs, and Belmont. If she is sharp off-the-shelf, and I think she is, then this is the chance to bet her at M/L odds of 3/1. Trust in Pletcher …

Wager: $100 Win, #6



Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 4: Mr. Extension #1, 6/1):

I am going to “old faithful” … you know, the 3rd off-the-bench play. Trainer Juan Carlos Avila has a great backstory that includes suffering and redemption. He continues to live out his dream of becoming a nationally-recognized conditioner. In this spot, he has a well-bred colt by Malibu Moon that has a chance to get a great trip. The 3-yr-old is priced right at odds of 6/1, and he is dropping from running in MC35 Co. Avila has taught him to break well, and he should do well with young Carlos Olivero in the irons for the 5th time. Former Major Leaguer, Victor Martinez, owns this one, and Avila has his runner pointed in the right direction.

Wager: Graduated Wager, WPS, $100 Bankroll, #1 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)



Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 9: Turf, 5F, Texas Glitter S. $75k, 3):

Of the 2 “Non-G” races on the Saturday card at Gulfstream Park, this one is clearly the more competitive affair. All 3 runners that are drawn to the outside could easily win, and it is going to be a mad dash on the painted dirt to see who makes the lead. Of course, when it comes to gate training, Wesley Ward is one of the best in the world. I am not kidding … Ward entries always exit stage left in good order, and in sprints; it gives them a distinct advantage. I am looking forward to seeing Lucci #6 make his 2nd start of the Meet. Last out, he was all speed up front, winning in wire-to-wire fashion against OC75kn1x Co. Jockey Emisael Jaramillo gets the call, with Tyler Gaffalione in New Orleans. If there is an entry that can match strides early with Ward’s Royal Ascot alum, then it is Jonathan Thomas’ High Front #5. The gelding by Summer Front broke his maiden on debut at Gulfstream back in late January, but he is going to have to find more on this step-up in class. I like the choice of Emma-Jayne Wilson, and she has the ability to take over a race. I am never against Thomas because he trains at such a high-level. The only other threat to these early types is Christophe Clement’s Big Invasion #7. I would never count out this barn, nor the handling ability of Javier Castellano. By Declaration of War, this colt was superbly handled last month against MSW60k runners. If he can move the ball forward, then he might end up being the best call of these 3. Who will take the most money? A fair question … As far as a top selection, I am going with Ward’s entry … he has the best breaking ability, and should get a perfect trip. Here is the bet …

Wager: $2 Trifecta Box, 5/6/7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Interstate Racing Tips – March 26th

Home - Featured - Interstate Racing Tips – March 26th

RSN927

Sky Racecaller Darren Flindell covers all the daily racing tips for the NSW meeting at the Rosehill featuring the Group 1 Tancred Stakes and Vinery Stud Stakes on Saturday the 26th of March.

Along with our Interstate Racing Tips, you’ll find Greyhound and Harness Tips, plus a full preview of every Victorian meeting, each and every day of the week with RSN927’s Expert Tipsters and race-callers.

Track Conditions
Darren Flindell Rosehill Tips

Rosehill, 26th March 2022

Race 1 Selections: 9,8,4,1
Race 2 Selections: 2,11,3,8
Race 3 Selections: 13,4,5,1
Race 4 Selections: 3,11,6,13
Race 5 Selections: 10,7,2,3
Race 6 Selections: 5,11,4,14
Race 7 Selections: 11,2,4,7
Race 8 Selections: 2,13,9,11
Race 9 Selections: 18,13,9,11
Race 10 Selections: 7,8,9,14

Best Bet

Race 7 – 11. Duais

Sky Race caller Josh Fleming covers all the daily racing tips for the QLD meeting at Doomben on Saturday the 26th of March.
Josh Fleming Doomben Tips

Doomben, 26th March 2022

Race 1 Selections: 5,9,2,3
Race 2 Selections: 10,7,5,3
Race 3 Selections: 4,2,1,9
Race 4 Selections: 5,2,4,1
Race 5 Selections: 11,9,6,10
Race 6 Selections: 13,7,9,5
Race 7 Selections: 16,13,18,9
Race 8 Selections: 3,5,13,16
Race 9 Selections: 1,6,12,13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aqueduct Picks - Saturday, March 26, 2022

Race 1: 4-2-5-1/1A
Race 2: 4-2-3-5
Race 3: 3-1-2-4
Race 4: 5-7-8-2
Race 5: 4-5-8-6
Race 6: 8-6-7-9
Race 7: 4-3-8-1
Race 8: 7-5-1/1A-4
Race 9: 1-5-7-3
Race 10: 10-7-4-1/1A
**Most Likely: Baby I'm Perfect #8 (Race 6)**
**Best Value: Smile Bryan #3 (Race 3)**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Charles Town Picks - Saturday, March 26, 2022

Race 1: 1-2-6-4
Race 2: 6-5-2-8
Race 3: 4-5-6-1
Race 4: 1-6-2-4
Race 5: 4-3-1-8
Race 6: 5-8-1-2
Race 7: 5-8-7-2
Race 8: 6-4-8-1
**Most Likely Winner: Buddyboysgotsense #1 (Race 1)**
**Best Value: Walkit Like I Talk #4 (Race 5)**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fair Grounds Picks For Louisiana Derby Day - Saturday, March 26, 2022

Race 1: 4-8-2-5
Race 2: 1-4-8-5
Race 3: 7-1-5-3
Race 4: 8-11-7-2
Race 5: 9-6-5-8
Race 6: 7-2-8-12
Race 7: 9-1-7-5
Race 8: 9-6-1-8
Race 9: 2-3-1-6
Race 10: 5-2-7-9
Race 11: 1-2-6-3
Race 12: 2-6-3-8
**Most Likely: Olympiad #2 (Race 9)**
**Best Value: Zozos #2 (Race 12)**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gulfstream Park Picks - Saturday, March 26, 2022

Race 1: 5-1-7-6
Race 2: 2-5-1-3
Race 3: 8-5-1-9
Race 4: 1-2-7-5
Race 5: 5-4-7-2
Race 6: 1-3-2-4
Race 7: 6-4-9-2
Race 8: 5-6-1-3
Race 9: 6-7-5-2
Race 10: 4-5-9-3
Race 11: 6-3-8-12
**Most Likely Winner: Mystic Eyes #6 (Race 7)**
**Best Value: Mr. Extension #1 (Race 4)**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Laurel Park Picks - Saturday, March 26, 2022

Race 1: 6-1-7-4
Race 2: 7-3-1-8
Race 3: 5-2-6-7
Race 4: 1-4-7-5
Race 5: 3-1-6-7
Race 6: 4-3-9-1
Race 7: 4-8-11-2
Race 8: 2-6-5-1
Race 9: 5-6-2-1
Race 10: 5-4-7-1
**Most Likely Winner: Minnetonka #6 (Race 1)**
**Best Value: No More Mask #3 (Race 5)**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mahoning Valley Picks - Saturday, March 26, 2022

Race 1: 1-4-6-5
Race 2: 3-1-5-4
Race 3: 1A-4-5-2
Race 4: 4-1-3-7
Race 5: 4-6-5-8
Race 6: 6-4-1-2
Race 7: 4-2-1-6
Race 8: 6-2-8-1
**Most Likely Winner: Mystic Miss #1 (Race 1)**
**Best Value: Lex K #4 (Race 4)**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oaklawn Park Picks - Saturday, March 26, 2022

Race 1: 2-4-5-3
Race 2: 8-4-3-7
Race 3: 3-4-1-6
Race 4: 1-9-6-4
Race 5: 3-6-11-8
Race 6: 6-3-9-1
Race 7: 4-2-1-7
Race 8: 3-9-6-8
Race 9: 4-5-3-1
Race 10: 7-10-3-1
**Most Likely: Truculent #4 (Race 7)**
**Best Value: Freer #8 (Race 2)**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sam Houston Race Park Picks - Saturday, March 26, 2022

Race 1: 4-6-2-7
Race 2: 7-6-2-5
Race 3: 4-5-2-6
Race 4: 5-8-3-2
Race 5: 2-1-5-8
Race 6: 2-5-1-4
Race 7: 8-1-6-5
Race 8: 1-6-10-7
Race 9: 2-9-6-1
Race 10: 11-1-9-6
**Most Likely Winner: Chief Brady #5 (Race 4)**
**Best Value: Keep The Bling #2 (Race 5)**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Jackpot Hi-5 Mandatory Payout

March 26, 2022 | By Al Cimaglia

Tonight, there will be a mandatory payout at Woodbine Mohawk Park in the Race 11 Jackpot Hi-5 which has a $526,417 carryover. The contest features a big 12-horse field, and post time will be approximately 11:10 EST.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11

My play will be to use 4-Air Strike (5-1) and 5-River Dali (3-1) at the top of the ticket. Air Strike has been saddled with post 10 in the last 2 starts and was used hard off the gate to get the top and faded down the lane. With the needed post relief Drury should have the Auciello trainee in play from the start and could end up in the pocket behind #5. River Dali makes its 2nd start for the Marfisi barn and comes off an improved effort from post 7. McNair's choice left hard in last and was nipped at the wire. Appears to have enough gate speed to land on the engine and could battle with Air Strike down the lane.

In the 3rd and 4th slots my choices include 1-Farmers Tan (7/2), 2-Good And Sweet (8-1), 3-Stolen Art (15-1), 6-No Better Joy (6-1), 8-Little Manny (12-1), 9-Day Delight 9 (10-1). In the 5th slot the All-button will be pushed.

My take is the 4/5 could control the race and follow each other all the way around, and 3-Stolen Art should be better starting inside and is a big price. Most of the others mentioned could also provide some value. The shortest morning line price is the 1-Farmers Tan. This is another Auciello trainee and is making its 1st start for that barn. The 6-year-old was claimed after finishing 9th and goes back on Lasix tonight. So, there are question marks but will respect the connections. The Puddy trainee 9-Day Delight, could provide some juice for the Hi-5 payout and should be better on a dry track. Its off-track record is 0-9, so will excuse last on a surface rated good and should fit well with this group.

0.20 Jackpot Hi-5

4,5/4,5/1,2,3,6,8,9/1,2,3,6,8,9/All
Total Bet=$96

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Workout Commentary - 3-26-22

March 26, 2022

“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, Handicapper & Analyst


Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.

The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.

Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

*
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 1-Cotopaxi; 6-Motorious

Forecast: The opener is a first-level allowance turf sprint over the flat course that offers two major layers. Cotopaxi (TOC=7/5; ML=5/2) has won his last pair over the local lawn with authority and today’s moves up in class while with a reasonable chance at a three-peat. He offers inside speed in a field without a whole lot of zip, so if he breaks running from the rail the D. O’Neill-trained colt should be on or near the lead throughout. His numbers aren’t quite par for the level, but in a field where a couple of the class droppers appear out of form, he may not need to improve at all. Motorious (TOC=6-1; ML=9/5 is an intriguing English invader from the P. D’Amato barn. Both of his wins overseas were accomplished on synthetic (he’s zero-for-five on grass) and the local work tab is solid if not unspectacular, but the stable has superior stats with Euro-shippers so we suspect this 4-year-old gelding is fit and ready. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with perhaps a very slight edge on top to Cotopaxi.


Notable Workouts:

Caisson (March 14, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01h). Grade: C+
In blinkers, in company inside Karin With an I (6f, 1:13.4h, out to 7/8 pole) for R. Mandella and showed good speed from the half mile pole to hit the top in :23 flat but then emptied out through the lane while being ridden, up at the wire in :49 flat for the final half mile. Maybe needs grass or perhaps needs to race himself in shape after being away since November of 2020. Let’s see one first.
View Workout Video

Motorious (March 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1h TT). Grade: B
In blinkers, finished a neck behind Overdue (5f, 1:01.1h TT) and couple of lengths in front of Gregorian Chant (5f, 1:01.2h TT) while under very light coaxing throughout the lane, final three furlongs in team training track drill for P. D’Amato in :12.1 and :35.4, solid move. Was winless in five starts on grass overseas but showed useful form on the synthetic. Has first level allowance conditions available for his U.S. debut and should be live and well-meant.
View Workout Video



__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 2: Post: 1:32 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 1-High Connection; 2-Pioneering Papa

Forecast: High Connection brought $290,000 at the OBS March Sale last year and finally makes it to the post after showing plenty of speed at the preview session (:10 flat) and then doing the same in his recent workouts that include a bullet :59 3/5 gate drill nine days ago (see below) that should have him fit and ready. From the rail at this extended sprint trip, the son of Connect won’t have an easy task, but if he leaves with his field, the B. Baffert-trained sophomore should have every chance to score at first asking. Pioneering Papa, a distant but decent third in a fast, highly-rated race in his debut earlier this month, should produce a forward move with that bit of experience behind him and based on speed figures is easily the best of the known element. In a six-runner affair, these are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play, with perhaps a slight edge on top to High Connection.

Notable Workouts:

High Connection (March 17, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.3hg). Grade: B+
Excellent gate work for B. Baffert while much best over Blue Devil (4f, :49.3hg), splits of :35 flat, :47 flat and :59.3 on our watches, mostly on his own while displaying good speed and athleticism and finishing with something left. Was a $290,000 OBS March Sale purchase last year (breezed in :10 flat) and looks the part of a very good prospect despite the length of time it’s taken for him to make the races. Looks plenty fit.
View Workout Video

Devil Moon (March 12, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.1h). Grade: B
Worked outside Set Sail (same time) for R. Mandella and was a half-length behind at the wire, under a nice hold early and then very light coaxing late (workmate was under a stout hold and was clearly best), final three furlongs in :11.2 and :35.1. Ran below expectations ins debut, probably will improve, but may need a bit more experience before putting his best stuff on display.
View Workout Video


__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 3: Post: 2:04 PT Grade: B
Single: 1-Youteyourhonor

Forecast: Youteyourhonor (TOC=6/5; ML=3-1) has turf sprint numbers that quite frankly are below average for the level, but she is stretching out for the first time, lands the good rail, and projects to be the controlling speed in this grass miler for sophomore state-bred fillies. Her pedigree suggests she should handle the trip, so let’s hope she can get loose on the lead and roll all the way to the wire. As we always say, speed types have their best chance to get the distance in their first try, so let’s take a stand and make this daughter of Danzing Candy a win play and rolling exotic single.


__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 4: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference: 4-Coalinga Road; 2-Thirsty Always

Forecast: Coalinga Road (TOC=4/5; ML=8/5) owns a considerable edge in speed figures and will be hard to beat if he returns as well as he left, but the C. Gaines-trained gelding, off the track for nearly a year, strikes us as a type that may need a race or two before being dead fit. Against this group, though, he may not have to be. The son of Quality Road, in the frame in all three of his prior outings over the Santa Anita main track, may find this abbreviated sprint distance a tad sharp but we suspect he’ll find a way to get up in time. For protection, we’ll also include Thirsty Always, (TOC=4-1; ML=7/2) a two-time stakes winner last year but from a low percentage outfit and with two poor recent races that put his current condition into question. One of those races was around two turns and the other was on grass, so perhaps under these more ideal conditions he’ll bounce back. Both should be included in rolling exotic play in a race that we’ll otherwise not get too involved with.

Notable Workouts:

Coalinga Road (March 11, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.1hg). Grade: B
Was hustled from the gate before being taken in hand after the opening furlong, then was asked pretty good entering the far turn to the quarter pole while even but a tad the best with Minister Shane (same time) for C. Gaines, splits of :24.1, :35.3 and :47.2 on our watches, okay work, nothing great. Been away for 11 months, getting cranked up (recorded a bullet work seven days later in :59.2 that should contribute to his fitness). Might be the type that needs to race himself into shape but should be competitive in state-bred first-level allowance company.
View Workout Video


__________________________________________________ ___________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 5: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 1-Touchdown Brown; 4-If Id Told You; 8-Discretionary Day

Forecast: This state-bred middle distance turf event is a challenging affair that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Touchdown Brown (TOC=7/2; ML=5/2) exits a pair of tougher races, has steadily rising speed figures, and is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from his rail draw. With the switch to Johnny V., the B. Koriner-trained gelding should appreciate this class drop from stakes company to a first-level allowance event, and while he finished fourth in his only prior outing on grass, it wasn’t a bad try over a sprint distance that probably was too sharp for him. Under these much more favorable conditions, the son of Cairo Prince seems set for a career top effort. If Id Told You (TOC=3-1; ML=3-1) makes his third start off a layoff and, theoretically, it should be his best. The G. Mandella-trained gelding closed with purpose to finish second in a similar affair over a mile last time out, gets an extra furlong to work with today, and projects to settle in the second flight and then have dead aim and every chance from the top of the lane to the wire. J. Hernandez got to know him last time out and stays aboard. Discretionary Day (TOC=6-1; ML=4-1) has a prior win over the local lawn and projects to be the controlling speed. He’s never been farther than a mile but based on pedigree and the projected race flow the son of Acclamation could take this field a very long way.

Notable Workouts:

Touchdown Brown (March 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h). Grade: B
Breezing through the lane inside Rantanen (4f, :48.3h), splits of :11.4 and :36.3 from the three furlong pole to the wire on our watches before continuing out an extra furlong in easy style. Looks to be in fine fettle and ready to produce a forward move.
View Workout Video


__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 6: Post: 3:39 PT Grade: C
Use (in order of preference): 8-Grandcourse Guy; 6-Wall Street Trader

Forecast: Grandcourse Guy (TOC=3/2; ML=5/2), a distant second in a stronger-than-par race for this maiden $40,000 level last month, should run at least as well and probably better with the benefit of a cozy outside draw in this modest extended sprint for older horses. He never seems to find much under pressure late, but against this group the Distorted Humor gelding may have found his friends. Wall Street Trader (TOC=4-1; ML=3-1) is a first-off-the-claim for J. Sadler (solid stats with this angle) and is worth a big look on that angle alone, though his numbers so far have been well below par. In a race without any effective closers, his best chance might be to outrun Grandcourse Guy early and then hold on late. While neither one is trustworthy, we’ll use both in rolling exotic play in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.

Notable Workouts:

Wall Street Trader (March 12, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.4h). Grade: B-
Ridden pretty good through the lane to be slightly second best with Famous Star (same time) for J. Sadler, final half mile :11.2, :23.1 and :48 flat, pretty much all out. Good final time but visually only fair to moderate, seeking another maiden claiming sprint for new connections.
View Workout Video


__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 7: Post: 4:12 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 8-Going to Vegas; 7-Neige Blanche; 6-Queen Goddess

Forecast: The defending race champion Going to Vegas (TOC=8/5; ML=9/5 had a nice comeback race last month when a closing second in the Buena Vista S.-G2 behind the controlling speed winner Leggs Galore and today stretches out to a more suitable trip in the 10-furlong Santa Ana S.-G3 for older fillies and mares. The daughter of Goldencents is reunited with “win rider” U. Rispoli, shows an easy training track breeze since that race, and should draft into a good stalking position and have every chance when the pressure is turned on. Neige Blanche (TOC=5/2; ML=7/2) may be more effective over a marathon trip but she’s won three of her last four starts and in her present form could be this good. She can be effective on the lead or from well off the pace, so regular rider J. Hernandez can assess the pace flow and adjust accordingly. Queen Goddess (TOC=6-1; ML=6-1) won the American Oaks-G1 in an off-the-turf event in late December but her form suggests she is just as comfortable on grass. The lightly-raced daughter of Empire Maker has room for improvement and can be expected to get at least a piece of the purse.

Notable Workouts:

Going to Vegas (March 19, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.3h TT). Grade: B+
Breezing in easy half mile training track drill, splits of :12.1, :24 flat and :48.2 on our watches while maintaining her edge. Seems set for her typical top quality performance.
View Workout Video


__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 8: Post: 4:44 PT Grade:
Use (in order of preference): 5-Fenestra; 2-California Street

Forecast: Fenestra (TOC=Evens; ML=3-1) is a 6-year-old gelding with just five career starts (three victories) and most recently produced a career top speed figure when winning a $32,000 claimer after pressing a hot pace and then coming away late when it mattered. He’s back in 15 days to take advantage of this starter’s allowance condition, so the short rest is a concern, but if he can repeat his last race the V. Cerin-trained son of Street Sense should be tough to deny again. California Street (TOC=3-1; ML=5/2) is a much more seasoned sprinter with six wins from 23 starts, three of which have been earned over this seven furlong distance. Claimed back for $50,000 last time out by trainer T. Yakteen in a sign of confidence, the late-running son of Street Boss retains regular pilot U. Rispoli and projects to settle well off the pace and then blast home from the quarter pole to the wire. With any kind of help up front, he should be difficult to contain. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two, with a slight preference on top to Fenestra.

Notable Workouts:

California Street (March 13, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h). Grade: B
Mildly ridden through the lane while coming the final three furlongs in a solid :36.2. Maintains is form after being claimed back by T. Yakteen, most comfortable in an extended sprint and is especially effective at seven furlongs.
View Workout Video


__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 9: Post: 5:15 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 9-Delmona; 2-Hail Columbia

Forecast: Despite breaking slowly and then moving up to press the pace, Delmona (TOC=4/5; ML=5/2) hit the front entering the lane but was nailed right on the wire in her U.S. debut over this course and distance last month while returning to her European form that saw her finish second (beaten a neck) to subsequent Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint-G2 winner Twilight Gleaming in a listed stakes last summer at Deauville. The J. Mullins-trained filly shows three easy breezes since that race, so she’s the logical favorite and top pick in this downhill turf dash for first-level allowance sophomore fillies. Hail Columbia (TOC=10-1; ML=12-1) won a high-priced maiden claiming dirt sprint in her debut in January in a productive race that has produced two subsequent winners, once of which (Unsolved Mystery) graduated in her next start by more than eight lengths and then went on to win the Arizona Oaks. She’s a very quick daughter of Exaggerator that projects to be the controlling speed and could prove to be an elusive target if she can clear without pressure (full discloser, this handicapper is part owner of Hail Columbia).

Notable Workouts:

I Got a Gal (March 21, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h TT). Grade: B+
Breezing in solo training track drill, easy early, plenty left late with splits of :24.1, :35.2 and 1:00 flat for P. Eurton. Looked quite sharp, but always does in the a.m. Threw in a clunker in Sweet Life S.-G3 after an impressive maiden win, tough one to gauge.
View Workout Video

Dolly May (March 18, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3h TT). Grade: C+
Ridden hard through the lane and was late changing leads in solo training track drill for J. Sadler, splits of :24.2, :36.1 and 1:01.2, fair to moderate drill for Irish filly. Winless since being imported, trying to find her level.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fair Grounds - Race #9
Picks Notes
#3 Super Stock His form can be a bit hit or miss, but he probably offers a decent mid-range price here while trying to bounce back off the dull Razorback run last time out. Intrigue here as a mild upsetter.
#2 Olympiad No arguing with what he's done lately, and his local debut produced a really sharp effort here last month. He's likely in line for another perfect trip, making him a big player again at a short price.
#5 Proxy He kept hinting at being a pretty good one last year but couldn't really put it all together against graded company. He came back off the bench with a sharp score, and maybe today is his official coming out party?
Race Summary Super Stock is worth a look in a race where Olympiad and Proxy both bringing imposing form, as 'Stock has back runs that would stack up nicely here if he can reverse his form off the dull try last out.

Fair Grounds - Race #10
Picks Notes
#8 Two Emmys He drew very wide last time out when unable to get up to prompt the pace, but he should be able to get a pretty perfect go of things in a race where the most logical players want to run from well off the splits. Chance.
#2 Sacred Life He'll be happy to find there is nothing like Colonel Liam lined up in here today, but he is still a finisher in a race that might not produce a very lively tempo. Obvious threat late.
#6 Captivating Moon He has some right to come forward in this second start off the layoff, and while I think top honors would be a stretch today, he has some appeal as a price player in the gimmicks.
Race Summary Two Emmys is quick enough to hang early with these, and a better draw today might leave him in a bit more aggressive spot to prompt the issue today. Price should be right with a decent race shape waiting.

Fair Grounds - Race #12
Picks Notes
#2 Zozos He's going to get a big class test today, but his Oaklawn allowance score was a romp, and he should be able to land a decent trip while keeping Epicenter in his sights early. Let's see what he's made of.
#6 Epicenter He was sharp on the engine last time out after setting too quick a pace in the Lecomte, and he looks likely to control the tempo again here. Not going to argue with anyone who thinks he lands this right back.
#3 Call Me Midnight He probably isn't getting that quick pace that allowed him to capture the Lecomte before skipping the Risen Star, but remember he was back quick in the KJC stakes dud last fall, so the spacing of the races might work in his favor again here.
Race Summary Zozos drilled ten others at Oaklawn last time out and already owns a win over the local footing. He's meeting a much, much deeper field today, but maybe he's the right horse at the right time.