Sunday 3/27/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Oaklawn Park Picks: Princessdreamcess towers on March 27
By J.N. Campbell


Oaklawn Park Picks - Sunday, March 27, 2022

Race 1: 3-1-5-4
Race 2: 6-1-5-9
Race 3: 7-4-2-8
Race 4: 3-1-10-4
Race 5: 2-6-4-8
Race 6: 2-8-3-5
Race 7: 9-8-4-2
Race 8: 5-1-3-6
Race 9: 2-9-3-7
**Most Likely: Princessdreamcess #9 (Race 7)**
**Best Value: Awesome Saturday #7 (Race 3)**

Most Likely Winner: (Race 7: Princessdreamcess #9, 2/1):

Flying P Stable and Robertino Diodoro claimed this runner from Ingrid Mason back in January. It was a complete surprise to her that the Florida bred would be on her way out. In that MC event, the filly by Jess’s Dream was solid down the lane … only yielding to a 1st time starter that absolutely ran out of her shoes. Since then, Diodoro has waited patiently for the right race to come along. Regular rider David Cohen gets the call, and I like this former Mason runner quite a bit. She has what it takes to break her maiden, and Flying P will prove just how shrewd they were getting this one for their stable.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #9



Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 3: Awesome Saturday #7, 5/1):

If you are looking for a runner to back on this Sunday that is getting back to a class level that makes a ton of sense, then you better heed this one. Trainer Genaro Garcia has 9 wins out of 70 starts during the Meet, and he has the capability to score any time. This gelding by Any Given Saturday has 29 starts in his career, but only 4 wins. He always seems to be flipping between Starter ALLW Co., and the Claiming ranks. Want another interesting stat … the 8-yr-old has 6 starts at Oaklawn, none were wins, but 3 were “Places.” I think he is poised to break through, especially considering that he is in-form. Running just last week against OC20k open company means that an easier spot like this one, will be appreciated. The best news … David Cabrera gets the call, and as we speak, we all know how well he is riding! If I could get 5/1 on this one, then that would be a dream …

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #7 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)



Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 9: Dirt, 6F, St.ALLW20ks, 4+):

There is nothing like a salty finale at Oaklawn to close out the weekend … and it is the Sunday before the Arkansas Derby! This Starter Allowance has a good group that has drawn-in, and with so many directions to go in, it is sure to bring some value. I am not sure how Ribbons and Medals #2 is 5/1 on the M/L, but that should tell you one of two things … either the race is very tough, or the M/L is ridiculously off … I think it might be a bit of both. Trainer Martin watched Geo Franco rally this gelding by To Honor and Serve just in the nick of time earlier this month. If he is sharp late like that again against an easier field, then I do not see how he misses. His fitness is high, but I doubt I will be the only one noticing it. As far as some other runners that could get a piece of the prize money, you would do well to take a hard look at Robertino Diodoro’s Cumberland Avenue #9. Here is an M&M sprinter that also won his last race right at the wire, and his conditioner is sending the son of First Samurai right back into the fray. He is fast, and has the wheels to prove it. Are we looking at a blanket finish in this race? As far as early speed goes, I think Chris Richard’s King of the Court #8 or Tom Van Berg’s The Queens Jules #1 will vie for the lead early on. One is ratcheting down in class (#8), while the other (#1) is going up. I am intrigued by Richard’s entry, because I liked this one when he was with Karl Broberg down at Delta. He is a good Speightstown sprinter … Let’s use all of these “short trackers,” plus we need to also include Tim Martin’s Ultimate #7 and Aaron Shorter’s Don’t Forget #3. Both of these “fit” here, and could be worth including … here is the wager!

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Superfecta Wheel, 2/9 w 2/9 w 1/3/7/8 w 1/3/7/8

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Rocket Picks ��: Gulfstream Park, Oaklawn Park, and Sunland Park for March 27, 2022
By: Aaron Halterman

It’s another major Saturday of racing! For the free pick 4, we will head to Gulfstream Park for the late sequence on the card! We will also have full card selections for Oaklawn Park and Sunland Park for the paid Rockets, so be sure to check those out. It’s Sunland Derby Day, which is the final Kentucky Derby prep race of the weekend.

Below is our free Late Pick 4 for Gulfstream Park:

Gulfstream Park March 27, 2022

Race 7: Maiden Claiming

#3 Chasing Joy was a solid second on debut last time out, and runs first off of the claim for Eppler today, which could help her chances. #1 Unbridled Glitter moves back over to the dirt for this race, which seems to be the surface she enjoys the most.

Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming
freestar

#7 Bohemian Boy can win in this spot if he rebounds from a poor effort last time out. His previous races are good enough to compete here. #8 Alley Oop Johnny looks for his second straight win here, while running for Maker for the first time today.

Race 9: Starter Optional Claiming

#5 Yes Im a Beast looks to be the lone speed in this race as he looks for his fourth win in five starts. He should be tough to catch here. #2 Pacos Pico will look for his second straight victory after a solid win over this track last time out.

Race 10: Maiden Claiming

#3 Rogers Ginger drops down in class in a major way today after several failed tries against maiden special weight company. #2 Kodiak Mamba also drops down in class for this race, which is where he was competitive two starts back.

THE TICKET

$.50 Pick 4 (Races 7-10) 1,3,5,9 / 1,5,6,7,8 / 5 / 1,2,3,8 – $40

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Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Sunday, March 27
Posted on March 26, 2022 by David Aragona

RACE 3: DOUBLE MAKER (#2)

#6 Colloquy figures to take some money again after putting in a mild late run to get up for third in his career debut. He crossed the wire 6 lengths behind today’s rival Thrill of It, but Colloquy appears to have more upside than that foe. This Christophe Clement trainee was just a little sluggish in the early going, but he finished nicely and is bred to appreciate a mile being out of the multiple stakes-winning dam Miss Valentine. #4 Thrill Of It last time earned a speed figure that makes him competitive here, but I’m skeptical that he gets better with added ground. I’m more interested in some of the other second time starters. #7 Front Porch has a right to improve after racing greenly in his debut. It’s tough to go 1 1/8 miles first time out, and this horse ran like one who would need a race. He lost contact with the leaders on the second turn but stayed on well through the stretch despite greenly altering course multiple times. He’s clearly fit enough to go the one-turn mile, but he has to show a bit more early speed. My top pick is #2 Double Maker. Though he was beaten by a double-digit margin in his debut, I actually thought he did a fair amount of running in that spot. He had to alter course coming out of the gate, and then went up to chase the pace before taking over on the far turn. He was no match for winner State Planning in the lane, but wasn’t really persevered with in the late stages, as his rider basically conceded the runner-up spot. He’s bred to get this distance and may have just needed to gain some fitness in his debut run.

RACE 4: MANDATORY (#1)

The enigma in this race is likely favorite #3 Jerry the Nipper. While he’s never faced open company before, he was running speed figures against New York-breds when last seen that would make him very competitive against this field. The problem is that we haven’t seen him in nearly 15 months. The good news is that he’s moving up in class in the return from a layoff, and Todd Pletcher has pretty solid statistics with horses like this. However, I’m reticent to take a short price on runners like this, especially in a race where there are some other viable options. #5 Full Court Press is similarly difficult to trust as he returns from a layoff. He ran very well when last seen in September at this level. However, I never like when horses put in the best efforts of their career and then go to the shelf for a long time. I’m most interested in a couple of bigger prices. One of those is #7 Chowda. He’s coming off a poor effort, but that was a tougher spot at this level. He also was racing a little too close to the worst part of the racetrack, as the rail was deadly on Feb. 5. His prior form was solid and he has the tactical speed to work out a good trip from his outside draw. My top pick is #1 Mandatory. Some may be reluctant to endorse a horse moving up out of the maiden ranks after taking 9 tries to graduate. However, he met some pretty strong rivals in those races, and has earned speed figure in his last four dirt races that put him right in line with the favorite in this spot. He finished gamely to hold off favored Rational Choice last time, and that rival returned to break his maiden nicely last week. Mandatory has the tactical speed to be prominent and the one-turn mile is a perfect distance for him.

RACE 6: BOURBON BAY (#1)

#5 Its All Relevant could go favored in this spot as he drops in class out of a tougher $40k spot into this $25k claimer. His primary appeal is his ample early speed, since there’s a distinct shortage of that in this field. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that he will be loose on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. That could indeed make him dangerous on the class drop. Yet I find him to be an untrustworthy short price off his last effort. He also had a pace advantage that day and could make nothing of it. He got nursed along early through slow fractions and gave up with no fight. The rivals here aren’t quite as strong as those who beat him last time, but it’s not as big a class drop as the price tags might indicate. The TimeformUS Race Rating for this race is just 1 point lower than last time. The two logical alternatives are #7 Easy Shot and #8 Dark Storm. The problem with both of them is that they possess very little early speed. Dark Strom has the better overall form, and now he’s making his first start off the claim for Rob Atras. His last race leaves something to be desired, but he’s obviously dangerous if he can get back on track. Easy Shot comes off a victory in which he got a great trip. Though he beat a solid field that day and is a win candidate right back if he repeats that effort. They’re both usable, but I actually prefer a different horse out of the race Easy Shot exits. #1 Bourbon Baychecked in fourth that day, but he didn’t get the most comfortable trip. He was unwisely sent up to contest the pace in the early going in a spot where five horses were vying for early supremacy. He eventually had to back out of that pace duel and wound up getting shuffled out of position down the backstretch and into the turn. He actually still launched a nice run to get back into contention once called upon before flattening out late. I think he showed subtle improvement off the claim for Antonio Arriaga. He also possesses more tactical speed than some other contenders, so he could get the jump on them if Its All Relevant comes back to the field.

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Aqueduct Picks - Sunday, March 27, 2022

Race 1: 3-2-8-9
Race 2: 5-4-1-3
Race 3: 7-6-4-2
Race 4: 5-3-2-7
Race 5: 3-8-4-2
Race 6: 8-5-3-7
Race 7: 8-2-6-5
Race 8: 6-5-3-2
Race 9: 6-4-1/1A-3
**Most Likely: American Monarch #8 (Race 7)**
**Best Value: Front Porch #7 (Race 3)**

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Fair Grounds Picks - Sunday, March 27, 2022

Race 1: 11-4-6-8
Race 2: 9-4-5-3
Race 3: 10-11-9-4
Race 4: 10-12-8-2
Race 5: 4-8-6-9
Race 6: 3-2-12-10
Race 7: 7-8-1-2
Race 8: 7-11-2-4
Race 9: 12-7-3-5
Race 10: 6-2-9-5
Race 11: 1-3-5-2
Race 12: 3-6-12-13
Race 13: 6-11-1-12
**Most Likely Winner: Ova Charged (Race 11)**
**Best Value: Big Merrill (Race 4)**

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Fonner Park Picks - Sunday, March 27, 2022

Race 1: 5-3-1-2
Race 2: 1-3-6-4
Race 3: 5-6-1-3
Race 4: 4-3-1-7
Race 5: 6-3-1-4
Race 6: 4-7-1-2
Race 7: 6-4-3-1
**Most Likely Winner: Malibu Rose #5 (Race 1)**
**Best Value: Little Bitothunder #4 (Race 4)**

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Gulfstream Park Picks - Sunday, March 27, 2022

Race 1: 8-2-6-5
Race 2: 4-1-2-5
Race 3: 4-7-2-3
Race 4: 5-10-2-6
Race 5: 2-6-1-5
Race 6: 7-2-8-4
Race 7: 7-1-3-5
Race 8: 6-1-5-7
Race 9: 5-2-1-3
Race 10: 2-8-3-1
**Most Likely Winner: Yes I'm A Beast (Race 9)**
**Best Value: Nixaneff (Race 7)**

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Laurel Park Picks - Sunday, March 27, 2022

Race 1: 3-5-4-8
Race 2: 1-5-4-2
Race 3: 7-4-1-3
Race 4: 2-1-5-6
Race 5: 4-3-5-1
Race 6: 6-4-3-1
Race 7: 5-6-2-1
Race 8: 2-1-6-7
Race 9: 6-2-3-1
**Most Likely Winner: Dr. Ferber #1 (Race 2)**
**Best Value: Money Mike #5 (Race 7)**

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Oaklawn Park Picks - Sunday, March 27, 2022

Race 1: 3-1-5-4
Race 2: 6-1-5-9
Race 3: 7-4-2-8
Race 4: 3-1-10-4
Race 5: 2-6-4-8
Race 6: 2-8-3-5
Race 7: 9-8-4-2
Race 8: 5-1-3-6
Race 9: 2-9-3-7
**Most Likely: Princessdreamcess #9 (Race 7)**
**Best Value: Awesome Saturday #7 (Race 3)**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunland Park Picks - Sunday, March 27, 2022

Race 1: 4-5-1-3
Race 2: 1-4-3-6
Race 3: 8-2-4-3
Race 4: 4-2-7-1
Race 5: 10-5-8-6
Race 6: 6-4-2-5
Race 7: 8-1-3-12
Race 8: 3-1-6-5
Race 9: 6-10-9-8
Race 10: 9-5-3-2
Race 11: 5-8-4-1
Race 12: 6-3-9-4
**Most Likely: Our Iris Rose #6 (Race 6)**
**Best Value: Bye Bye Bobby #5 (Race 11)**

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Santa Anita Park Picks - Sunday, March 27, 2022

Race 1: 2-5-8-7
Race 2: 1-5-2-3
Race 3: 2-1-5-3
Race 4: 6-2-3-1
Race 5: 3-7-6-2
Race 6: 5-2-1-3
Race 7: 9-7-2-4
Race 8: 2-6-8-7
Race 9: 11-6-5-9
**Most Likely Winner: Allaboutthemoney (Race 4)**
**Best Value: Dona Flama (Race 8)**

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Tampa Bay Downs Picks - Sunday, March 27, 2022

Race 1: 7-3-5-8
Race 2: 1-7-5-3
Race 3: 9-11-12-1
Race 4: 3-4-8-2
Race 5: 5-4-7-8
Race 6: 1-3-4-6
Race 7: 4-6-8-5
Race 8: 3-6-4-7
Race 9: 8-9-5-3
Race 10: 6-3-2-1
Race 11: 4-1-5-9
Race 12: 5-10-9-7
**Most Likely Winner: Shifty She (Race 10)**
**Best Value: Ny Beth Getsitdone (Race 3)**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Santa Anita Park 5 Facts | March 22-28, 2022

March 22, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

Schedule:

Friday-Sunday

Carryovers:

$28,953 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot (Friday)

Feature Race(s):

G3 $125,000 Santa Ana // filly & mare turf routers // Saturday

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Win % (44%, +$19.00)

Best Speed Track (33%, +$16.00)

Best Speed Last 3 (30%, -$0.80) *top-3 factor fifth straight week*

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

T: John Sadler // last week 9: 4-0-2 (44%, $3.84 ROI) // $13, $15, $16, $23 winners // 2-3 with John Velazquez

T: Brian Koriner // last week 5: 3-1-0 (60%, $2.40 ROI) // 2-2 with Mike Smith // 3-4 with maidens

T: Steve Miyadi // last week 5: 2-3-0 (40%, $1.98 ROI) // 4: 1-3-0 with favorites + $16 winner

J: Juan Hernandez // last week 16: 5-2-4 (31%, $1.68 ROI) // 3: 2-1-0 with favorites + $13, $26 winners

J: John Velazquez // last week 8: 3-1-1 (38%, $2.76 ROI) // $12, $15, $16 winners // 3: 2-0-1 with John Sadler

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Golden Gate Fields 5 Facts | March 22-28, 2022

March 22, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

Schedule:

Friday-Sunday

Carryovers:

$0 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot (Friday)

Feature Race(s):

None scheduled.

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Avg. Earnings Track (36%, +$43.60)

Avg. Turn Time (33%, +$28.20)

Last Race Class (24%, +$17.20)

Best peed Distance (34%, +$12.60)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

T: Jim Gilmour // last week 4: 3-0-0 (75%, $3.93 ROI) // $6, $8, $16 winners // 2-3 with Julien Couton

T: Ellen Jackson // last week 6: 2-1-2 (33%, $2.17 ROI) // $10, $15 winners + 20-1 runner-up (all at 6F or less)

T: Andy Mathis // last week 3: 2-0-0 (67%, $2.30 ROI) // 6-10 last 2 weeks

J: Pedro Terrero // last week 16: 4-3-1 (25%, $1.15 ROI) // $5, $7, $7, $16 winners // only rode 2 favorites

J: Frank Alvarado // last week 11: 4-3-1 (36%, $1.30 ROI) // 4: 2-1-0 with favorites // 7-22 last 2 weeks

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**