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2 Unit Play. #651. Take Under 137.5 Xavier vs. Texas A&M (Thursday @ 7pm est)
2 Unit Play. #651. Take Under 137.5 Xavier vs. Texas A&M (Thursday @ 7pm est)
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Andrew McInnis
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505pm 42 Wild -120
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Big al
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BUCKS. Over 243.5 5 unitsComment
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Adam Trigger 5% Xavier
THURS CBB 5% NIT FINAL MAX BET
Game: (651) Xavier at (652) Texas A&M
Date/Time: Mar 31 2022 7:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Xavier +4.5 (-110)
Xavier (7PM ET ESPN) – I came up short in the NIT Semifinals on Tuesday but I think Texas A&M played about as good as they could have possibly played and I’m going to take a position against the Aggies at what I consider to be a very inflated number when they battle the Xavier Musketeers in the NIT Championship Game at Madison Square Garden in New York City.
Early in Tuesday’s game I knew I made a very obvious mistake, defense in the PAC 12 has been incredibly soft all season and I should have known Texas A&M would have a field day in the paint against Washington State. Making matters worse for Washington State is the Cougars were frigid shooting the ball and, to top it all off, Texas A&M had a shooting night that exceeds their usual standards hitting 48.5 percent from the field in a blowout 72-56 win. The reason I love Xavier against the number in this spot is I see the likelihood of Texas A&M replicating that performance to be extremely slim. Unlike Washington State, Xavier has quality front court options like Jack Nunge and Zach Freemantle that will give an effort on the defensive end. Xavier typically succumbs to solid guard play and that simply isn’t A&M’s strength as the Aggies turn it over a ton and don’t shoot from the perimeter particularly well. Washington State’s frontcourt is athletic but lacked toughness, Xavier makes up for a lack of athleticism with size and grit and ultimately I think that will play better against Texas A&M which should be enough to get us the money against this number.
One of the reasons Xavier has been a fade for me the past couple years is I’ve just never been high on Travis Steele as a head coach but he’s now out and Xavier is now 3-0 under interim head coach Jonas Hayes. This could have gone one of two ways for Xavier, the Musketeers could have given up and called it a season but Hayes has been able to rally this Musketeers team to four straight wins. Go back to the beginning of the season and this is a Xavier team that was ranked in the Top 20, the Musketeers simply couldn’t get out of free fall mode in February but the move to Hayes at the helm has renewed the energy and spirit of this Xavier team. Even with the February swoon Xavier has still managed a 22-13 ledger this season with wins over Ohio State, Virginia Tech, Marquette, Creighton (2x) and UCONN. Xavier has knocked off Florida, Vanderbilt and St Bonaventure in succession to get to this point, in my opinion the Musketeers have been every bit as impressive as Texas A&M (who was dreadful in my opinion until the SEC Tournament) and I think we are catching free points on a neutral floor in a matchup that I have as relatively even.
When you look at the stat sheet both teams are incredibly similar, both average roughly the same success rate from the field and neither shoot it particularly well from the perimeter. Xavier has a slight rebounding edge while Texas A&M has better athletes. In addition to poor shooting and a lack of effort on defense the thing that really killed Washington State on Tuesday was 17 turnovers and I don’t think that’s going to be an issue for a Xavier team that’s been in the Top 100 nationally in fewest turnovers all season. I’m not expecting Xavier to light it up to the tune of 53.1 percent like they did against St Bonaventure but it is encouraging they shot the ball as well as they did in this same venue on Tuesday night. Most of Xavier’s points came from playing through the paint and the Musketeers destroyed St Bonaventure on the boards. In the end what Xavier excels at neutralizes Texas A&M’s strengths (which was not at all the case with Washington State) and I think it makes for a very even, competitive game here.
This one is all about the number for me. I have this as an even matchup on a neutral floor but the masses have become enamored with Texas A&M and the oddsmakers are able to attract the handle at an inflated number here. I think Xavier has the same chance as Texas A&M to win here, there’s also the very real possibility that if Texas A&M were to win it happens by four points or less and I’ll take my chances that Xavier can get us to the window one way or the other to cash this 5% max bet. Play on Xavier +4.5 (-110) for 5% (or 5 units)
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