Saturday 4/2/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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BROOKLYN NETS VS. ATLANTA HAWKS

The fans at State Farm Arena will be treated to a game between the Brooklyn Nets and the Atlanta Hawks when they take their seats on Saturday.

Oddsmakers opened the Nets as -1.5-point favorites versus the Hawks, while the game's total opened at 243.5.

The Hawks were a 131-107 winner in their most recent outing at home against the Cavaliers. They covered the -6.5-point spread as favorites, while the total score (238) made winners of OVER bettors.

Last time out for Brooklyn, they were a 120-119 loser as they battled the Bucks at home. The Nets failed to cover in the match as a -2-point favorite, while 239 combined points moved the game UNDER for totals bettors.

Brooklyn:
Team record: 39-36 SU,30-42-3 ATS
Brooklyn is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Brooklyn is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Brooklyn's last 6 games

Atlanta:
Team record: 38-37 SU,32-43 ATS
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games

Next up:
Brooklyn home to Houston Tuesday, April 5
Atlanta at Toronto Tuesday, April 5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BETTING ODDS TRENDS

Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games
Atlanta is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games at home
Atlanta is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Atlanta's last 13 games at home
Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Brooklyn
Atlanta is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games when playing Brooklyn
Atlanta is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games when playing Brooklyn
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Brooklyn
Atlanta is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Brooklyn
Atlanta is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Brooklyn
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing at home against Brooklyn

Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Brooklyn is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Brooklyn's last 6 games
Brooklyn is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Brooklyn is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Brooklyn's last 12 games on the road
Brooklyn is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games when playing Atlanta
Brooklyn is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Brooklyn is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Brooklyn's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Brooklyn is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Brooklyn is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Brooklyn's last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta

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MIAMI HEAT VS. CHICAGO BULLS

The fans at United Center will be treated to a game between the Miami Heat and the Chicago Bulls when they take their seats on Saturday.

Oddsmakers opened the Heat as -1.5-point favorites versus the Bulls, while the game's total opened at 220.

In their last action, Chicago was a 135-130 winner at home against the Clippers. They covered the -2-point spread as favorites, while the combined score (265) was profitable news for OVER bettors.

Last time out for Miami, they were a 106-98 winner as they battled the Celtics on the road. The Heat covered in the match as a +5-point underdog, while 204 combined points moved the game UNDER for totals bettors.

Miami:
Team record: 48-28 SU,41-34-1 ATS
Miami is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
Miami is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

Chicago:
Team record: 43-32 SU,39-35-1 ATS
Chicago is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Chicago's last 14 games
Chicago is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home

Next up:
Miami at Toronto Sunday, April 3
Chicago home to Milwaukee Tuesday, April 5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BETTING ODDS TRENDS

Chicago Bulls
Chicago is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Chicago's last 14 games
Chicago is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Chicago is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games at home
Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami
Chicago is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Miami
Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing at home against Miami

Miami Heat
Miami is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
Miami is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Miami is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Miami is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Chicago
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago

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UTAH JAZZ VS. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

The Golden State Warriors will be fighting to snap a losing streak on Saturday when they take on the Utah Jazz at Chase Center.

Oddsmakers opened the Jazz as -1.5-point favorites versus the Warriors, while the game's total opened at 219.5.

Golden State lost its last outing, a 107-103 result against the Suns on March 30. The Warriors covered in that game as a +5-point underdog, while the 210 combined points took the game UNDER the total.

Last time out for Utah, they were a 122-109 winner as they battled the Lakers at home. The Jazz failed to cover in the match as a -13.5-point favorite, while 231 combined points moved the game OVER for totals bettors.

Utah:
Team record: 45-30 SU,31-42-2 ATS
Current Streak: lost 4 straight games.
Utah is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Utah is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Utah's last 16 games

Golden State:
Team record: 48-28 SU,36-36-4 ATS
Current Streak: lost 3 straight games.
Golden State is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Golden State is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Golden State's last 12 games

Next up:
Utah home to Memphis Tuesday, April 5
Golden State at Sacramento Sunday, April 3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BETTING ODDS TRENDS

Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Golden State is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Golden State's last 12 games
Golden State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Golden State is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Golden State is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Golden State's last 7 games at home
Golden State is 5-10-1 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Utah
Golden State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Utah
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Golden State's last 10 games when playing Utah
Golden State is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Utah
Golden State is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Utah
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing at home against Utah

Utah Jazz
Utah is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Utah is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Utah's last 16 games
Utah is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Utah is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Utah's last 10 games on the road
Utah is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
Utah is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Utah's last 10 games when playing Golden State
Utah is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State

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NEW YORK is 13-2 ATS (10.8 Units) in April games over the last 2 seasons.

BROOKLYN is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games in the current season.

CHICAGO is 13-1 ATS (11.9 Units) in home games after a non-conference game in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Saturday, April 2
Trend Report

Charlotte @ Philadelphia
Charlotte
Charlotte is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Charlotte is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games when playing Charlotte
Philadelphia is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Charlotte

Cleveland @ New York
Cleveland
Cleveland is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against New York
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
New York
New York is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
New York is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Cleveland

Brooklyn @ Atlanta
Brooklyn
Brooklyn is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Brooklyn is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta
Atlanta is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Miami @ Chicago
Miami
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games at home
Chicago is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home

Utah @ Golden State
Utah
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Utah's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Golden State's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing at home against Utah

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
The total has gone UNDER in four of the last six Nets' games.
The total has gone OVER in five of the last six Hawks' games
The Nets are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 matchups against Atlanta.
The total has gone OVER in six of the last nine matchups between Brooklyn and Atlanta.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

AI Picks: Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby, Jeff Ruby

April 1, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

A three-region Triple Crown trail Saturday is on tap at Gulfstream Park for the Florida Derby, Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby and Turfway for the Jeff Ruby. To assist your handicapping, key stakes selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.

You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app. We’ve included the official track morning line odds with each runner.

Gulfstream Park // Race 14 // 6:38 pm ET // G1 $1,000,000 Florida Derby // 1-1/8 miles

#6 Charge It (7-2) // 32%W
#7 White Abarrio (3-1) // 15%W
#3 Simplification (5-2) // 13%W
#8 Cajun’s Magic (30-1) // 9%W
#2 Classic Causeway (7-2) // 7%W
#5 Pappacap (10-1) // 5%W
#1 Strike Hard (20-1) // 5%W
#4 King of Truth (50-1) // 4%W
#9 O Captain (20-1) // 3%W
#10 Clapton (30-1) // 3%W
#11 Steal Sunshine (30-1) // 4%W

Turfway Park// Race 12 // 6:23 pm ET // G3 $600,000 Jeff Ruby // 1-1/8 miles

#7 Tiz the Bomb (2-1) // 28%W
#5 Tawny Port (6-1) // 15%W
#1 Royal Spirit (10-1) // 10%W
#6 Great Escape (15-1) // 9%W
#2 Stolen Base (7-2) // 7%W
#9 Dowgiac Chief (8-1) // 7%W
#13 Swing Shift (15-1) // 5%W
#8 Red Run (6-1) // 3%W
#3 Cabo Spirit (12-1) // 3%W
#4 Rich Strike (20-1) // 3%W
#10 Optigogo (30-1) // 3%W
#11 Constitutionlawyer (50-1) // 3%W
#12 Blackadder (15-1) // 3%W *expected to scratch*

Oaklawn Park// Race 12 // 7:35 pm ET // G1 $1,250,000 Arkansas Derby // 1-1/8 miles

#9 We the People (7-2) // 33%W
#5 Un Ojo (6-1) // 22%W
#6 Secret Oath (5-2) // 12%W
#4 Doppelganger (3-1) // 9%W
#3 Barber Road (8-1) // 8%W
#8 Cyberknife (8-1) // 5%W
#2 Chasing Time (12-1) // 4%W
#1 Kavod (15-1) // 4%W
#7 Ben Diesel (15-1) // 4%W

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Race of the Week: Ghostzapper at Gulfstream | Saturday, April 2

March 30, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:

Among 10 stakes on the Florida Derby Day card at Gulfstream Park is this highly interesting 1-1/8 miles contest in the Classic division. The G3 $100,000 Ghostzapper will go as Race 6 on the program. Horseplayers with Xpressbet and 1/ST BET can enjoy up to a $10 money-back special on win bets on the entire Saturday card at Gulfstream if your selection finishes second or third. The 14-race program also features $750,000-guaranteed pools in the late pick 4 and pick 5.

Field Depth:

Local G2 winners GREATEST HONOUR and FEARLESS are the most credentialed members of this 7-horse cast. CAPOCOSTELLO was a G1 winner in Panama. TWELVE VOLT MAN and CARLOS L are listed stakes winners. No doubt FEARLESS has held the strongest company lines with GREATEST HONOUR a clear second in that regard.

Pace:

LAUGHING BOY and CARLOS L in posts 2-3 figure to have the most early foot. TWELVE VOLT MAN could be hustled from the outer draw with some natural foot. The early pace does not appear to be overly taxing.

Our Eyes:

FEARLESS has been second-best in his last 2 local starts to rising star Speaker's Corner in the G3 Hooper and G2 Gulfstream Park Mile. Both of those were 1-turn events and he'll stretch back out around 2 bends on Saturday at the tail end of a taxing meet. To run him back for $100K almost seems like an afterthought with quality races on the horizon in Kentucky and New York. He's absolutely the horse to beat, but this soft placement raises some doubt to taking a very short price -- particularly at a distance in which he's 3: 0-1-0 lifetime.

GREATEST HONOUR looked like a bona fide Kentucky Derby prospect when he won the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth here last winter. But he disappointed in the Florida Derby as the 4-5 favorite and went to the sidelines for 350 days before reappearing last month at Tampa bay Downs. GREATEST HONOUR was lackluster in his G3 Challenger Stakes return and a modest workout tab at Payson Park since doesn't give any hint that he's storming back to form just yet. The 1-1/8 miles is a big ask with little underneath him in the past year in terms of foundation. At 118 pounds, he gets in 6 lighter than FEARLESS and that could help.

Those 2 dominate the betting in all likelihood, but there's a feeling of vulnerability to this eye.

COMMANDEER was blow out in the G1 Pegasus World Cup, but has been working very well for veteran Jimmy Toner since then. His autumn allowance win over LAUGHING BOY at Churchill Downs could put him in the mix here at his best. Tyler Gaffalione has had a strong meet and takes over for the first time on COMMANDEER. As for LAUGHING BOY, he'll have a pace advantage perhaps and a fantastic post draw in the 2-hole. It has been a demoralizing meet for Kenny McPeek's barn, winning only 1 race coming into closing week and having a shedrow of Triple Crown hopefuls struggle to make their way. Julien Leparoux is an underrated rider on speed horses and if he gives LAUGHING BOY his head and lets him run, he could take them a long way.

CARLOS L has been away since May and makes his first start at Gulfstream for Marcial Navarro, who lures Joel Rosario to the saddle. This one likely presses the pace of LAUGHING BOY and is a winner from 6-1/2 furlongs to 1-1/2 miles. Another interesting riding pairing comes with Irad Ortiz Jr. hopping aboard CAPOCOSTELLO for the firs ttime. The Panamanian import was no match in allowance company Jan. 15 in his US debut, but the winner that day (Olympiad) has come back to win 2 graded stakes since.

Claiming Crown Jewel winner TWELVE VOLT MAN has won over the course and distance at the meet. This will be a class test for the Constitution gelding trained by Saffie Joseph Jr.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
FEARLESS has been in the exacta in 4 straight races over this track since November.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
COMMANDEER was 18-1 in winning an allowance 2 starts back and untouched at 106-1 in the Pegasus World Cup. He'll be let go at an intermediate price here and I like his chances.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$70 win COMMANDEER. $25 exacta COMMANDEER over FEARLESS. $5 exacta COMMANDEER over LAUGHING BOY.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeremy Plonk: Florida Derby Post Draw Rapid Reaction | Wednesday,

March 30, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

Saturday’s $1 million Curlin Florida Derby – the most productive Kentucky Derby prep all-time with 24 alumni to wear the roses – will feature a field of 11 as drawn today at Gulfstream Park. The Florida Derby tops a 10-stakes card that gets underway at 11:30 am ET. The fourth major 3-year-old stakes of the Championship Meet re-matches the winners from the previous three events, Simplification (Mucho Macho Man, Fountain of Youth) and White Abarrio (Holy Bull).

Horseplayers who utilize the 1/ST BET and Xpressbet betting platforms for Florida Derby Day can take advantage of to a $10 money-back guarantee on win bets that finish second or third on the entire Gulfstream Park card. For more coverage of the Florida Derby, visit Florida Derby Picks by 1/ST BET.

Pace figures to be a major component to this 1-1/8 miles test. Classic Causeway led the entire way in his pair of victories this year over 1-1/16 miles at Tampa Bay Downs. He’s as fast as any Derby prospect the first 50 yards as we’ve seen in some time, and from post 2 he’ll be expected to be in front again. White Abarrio tallied the Holy Bull while pressing in second before pouncing. From post 7, he’ll have the expected major pace players to his inside, Classic Causeway and stretch-out maiden winner Charge It for six-time Florida Derby winner Todd Pletcher. Pace-versatile Simplification leaves from post 3 and is a difficult evaluation in terms of intent and style. In a “post draw winners & losers” conversation, one could argue White Abarrio got the best of the prospective trips from his starting spot. Inside speed is always good routing at Gulfstream, so post 2 for Classic Causeway could also be a boon.
The late pick four and pick five both will have $750,000-guaranteed pools. Also note the Rainbow 6 pool will have a mandatory payout on Sunday’s final day of the Championship Meet.

The Florida Derby will be televised live on CNBC from 6-7 pm ET.

//

2022 Curlin Florida Derby // Gulfstream Park // Saturday, April 2, 2022

1 Strike Hard // Matthew Williams // Junior Alvarado // 20-1 ML
2 Classic Causeway // Brian Lynch // Irad Ortiz Jr. // 7-2 ML
3 Simplification // Antonio Sano // Jose Ortiz // 5-2 ML
4 King of Truth // Amador Sanchez // Jose Morelos // 50-1 ML
5 Pappacap // Mark Casse // Edwin Gonzalez // 10-1 ML
6 Charge It // Todd Pletcher // Luis Saez // 7-2 ML
7 White Abarrio // Saffie Joseph Jr. // Tyler Gaffalione // 3-1 ML
8 Cajun’s Magic // Michael Yates // Jesus Rios // 30-1 ML
9 O Captain // Gustavo Delgado // Joel Rosario // 20-1 ML
10 Clapton // Juan Alvarado // Emisael Jaramillo // 30-1 ML
11 Steal Sunshine // Bobby Dibona // Leonel Reyes // 30-1 ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

2022 Florida Derby: Meet the Contenders

March 29, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

We introduce you to the potential field for Saturday's $1 million Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. The official entry and draw will take place on Wednesday, so check back for our Florida Derby Post Draw Rapid Reaction then.

Simplification
Dancing all 4 dances in the Florida Derby series, the Mucho Macho Man and Fountain of Youth winner gets his re-match with Holy Bull conqueror White Abarrio. He's shown the ability to race on and off the pace.

White Abarrio
Winner of the Holy Bull Stakes in his only start of 2022, he's a perfect 3-for-3 lifetime at Gulfstream Park. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. has been the local circuit's top trainer in recent years and seeks his first Florida Derby score.

Pappacap
Last year's Best Pal winner and Breeders' Cup Juvenile runner-up at Del Mar bids to snap a 5-race losing streak. His Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse looks to add his first Florida Derby trophy to his collection.

Charge It
Six-time Florida Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher can pad his record win total in this race if class riser Charge It can build off his impressive February 12 maiden breaker in his second start. Expect this one to be an early pace force.

Classic Causeway
Front-running winner of the Sam F. Davis and Tampa Bay Derby on the Gulf Coast, this speedster has been one of the winter's most impressive sophomores. He competes Saturday on a rather quick, 3-week turnaround by today's standards.

O Captain
87-1 third-place finisher behind Simplification in the Fountain of Youth, he won't sneak up on anyone this time. Trainer Gustavo Delgado has orchestrated 21-1 (Majesto) and 71-1 (Bodexpress) runner-up finishes in the Florida Derby past.

Shipsational
Second and third behind Florida Derby foe Classic Causeway in the Tampa Bay Derby and Sam F. Davis, this New York-bred will need to make up about 2-4 lengths on his rival to turn the tables. He's maternal grandson of 1995 Florida Derby winner Thunder Gulch.

Cajun's Magic
The veteran of last year's Florida Sires Stakes series mustered a fifth-place effort in the Holy Bull Stakes in his lone start this season. That marked the first time in his 6 lifetime races, all at Gulfstream Park, that he missed the exacta.

Strike Hard
Second as the 4-5 favorite in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes to Simplification and fourth in the Sam F. Davis to Classic Causeway, his connections come into the Florida Derby seeking redemption. He could give Matthew Williams his first graded stakes winner in his fourth full year of training.

Steal Sunshine
Longshot son of 2014 Florida Derby winner Constitution has yet to attempt a stakes race. His lone victory in 4 starts came in maiden optional claiming company in December.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Top Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, April 2, 2022
By J.W. Paine in Horse Racing

Saturday’s horse racing picks are all drawn from stakes races across three tracks—Gulfstream Park, Oaklawn Park, and Turfway Park.

More importantly, the dozen stakes races I assess here include six qualifying races for either the Kentucky Oaks or the 2022 Kentucky Derby (one of each at each of the three tracks, since you asked).

So let’s not waste any more time. Oh, one last thing: You can review the full card of Saturday’s horse races for all three tracks at one of our recommended online racebooks.

Good luck!
My Saturday Picks for Gulfstream Park
Race three — Orchid Stakes (Grade III)

This is a $150,000 purse, 1-1/2 miles run on the turf course for fillies and mares four years old and upward. I’m betting on the third-favored (at 3/1) Beautiful Lover, piloted by top jockey Joel Rosario.

This six-year-old mare finished eleven of her 17 career starts in the money, winning five, including La Prevoyante Stakes (Grade III) here at Gulfstream in January. Even in this talented field of seven, she’s a standout.

Longtime Breeders’ Cup veteran Christophe Clement trains Beautiful Lover for Moyglare Stud Farm, Ltd.
Race six — Ghostzapper Stakes (Grade III)

This is a $100,000 purse, 1-1/8 miles race on the dirt track for four-year-olds and upward. I’m sticking with the 4/5 morning line favorite, Fearless, ridden by Luis Saez.

This six-year-old bay gelding moneyed eleven of his 13 career starts, winning five, including the Harlan’s Holiday Stakes (Grade III) in December.

Since then, he finished second in both the Fred W. Hooper Stakes (Grade III) in January and the Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes (Grade II) in March. He’s got this.

Multiple Belmont Stakes and Kentucky Derby winner Todd A. Pletcher trains Fearless for Repole Stable.
Race nine — Pan American Stakes (Grade II)

This is a $200,000 purse, 1-1/2 miles race on the turf course for four-year-olds and upward. My money’s on the third-favored (at 5/2) Temple, with Jose L. Ortiz in the irons.

This six-year-old gelding finished in the money 22 of his 34 career starts, winning seven.

Granted, Abaan—the 8/5 favorite in this race—made Temple accept a second-place finish in the W. L. McKnight Stakes (Grade III) in January.
But Temple quickly returned the favor with a win in the Mac Diarmida Stakes (Grade II) in March. Abaan finished that one in fourth place. Sad emoji.

Longtime horse racing veteran Michael J. Maker trains Temple for owners Paradise Farms Corp. and David Staudacher.
Race twelve — Gulfstream Park Oaks (Grade II)

This is a $250,000 purse, 1-1/16 miles dirt track run for three-year-old fillies. This is a qualifying race on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks, and awards Road points to the top four finishers (100-40-20-10).

I have to back the 4/5 morning-line favorite, Kathleen O., with top jockey Javier Castellano aboard.

This filly won all three of her career starts, including her initial maiden attempt last November at Aqueduct, as well as the Cash Run Stakes (Black Type) in January and the Davona Dale Stakes (Grade II) in March here at Gulfstream.

Horse racing legend Claude R. “Shug” McGaughey III trains Kathleen O. for Winngate Stables, LLC.
Race thirteen — Appleton Stakes (Grade III)

This is a $100,000 purse, one-mile turf run for four-year-olds and upward. I’m betting my two dollars on the second-favored (at 7/2) English Bee, ridden by Luis Saez.

This six-year-old finished 112 of his 25 career starts in the money, winning five. Yes, he doesn’t have the greatest record, but the 3/1 morning-line favorite in this race, Phantom Currency, hasn’t run professionally since February 2021.
I wouldn’t blame you for putting a two-spot down on Phantom Currency, but I don’t think you’ll be happy. Better to bet on the more likely English Bee.

Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup veteran H. Graham Motion trains English Bee for owner-breeder Calumet Farm.
Race fourteen — Florida Derby (Grade I)

This is a $1,000,000 purse, 1-18 miles dirt track race for three-year-olds. This is a qualifying race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, and awards Road points to the top four finishers (100-40-20-10).

Of the five most-likely-to-succeed entries in this horse race (according to the morning-line), four are already on the 2022 Kentucky Derby leaderboard.

One of those is my pick for the win: The 5/2 morning-line favorite, Simplification, piloted by Jose L. Ortiz.

This bay colt finished in the money five of his six career starts, winning three, including the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (Grade II) last month and the Mucho Macho Man Stakes (Listed) in January.

He also finished second in the Holy Bull Stakes (Grade III) in February. In this solid field of 11, I like his chances best.

Antonio Sano trains Simplification for owner Tami Bobo.
Saturday’s Picks for Oaklawn Park
Race nine — Oaklawn Mile Stakes (Grade III)

This is a $400,000 purse, one-mile dirt track race for four-year-olds and upward. While this ten-horse field has plenty of successful entries, few of them have performed well at the stakes level.

The best exception to that is the 5/2 morning-line favorite, Cezanne, with the top jockey Flavien Prat aboard.

This five-year-old bay moneyed five of his six career starts, winning four, including the Kona Gold Stakes (Grade III) last April and the San Carlos Stakes (Grade II) in March 2022.

Horse Racing Hall of Famer Bob Baffert trains Cezanne for owners Mrs. John Magnier, Michael B. Tabor, Derrick Smith, and St. Elias Stable.
Race ten — Fantasy Stakes (Grade III)

This is a $600,000 purse, 1-1/16 miles dirt track race for three-year-old fillies. The Fantasy Stakes is a qualifying race on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks, and awards Road points to the top four finishers (100-40-20-10).

This is my no-brainer pick of the day: 2/1 morning-line favorite, Eda, with John R. Velazquez in the irons.

This filly finished five of her six career starts in the money, winning four, including the Starlet Stakes (Grade I) last December at Los Alamitos and the Santa Ysabel Stakes (Grade III) at Santa Anita in March.

Oh, and she also won the Anoakia Stakes (Black Type) at Santa Anita last October, and the Desi Arnaz Stakes (Listed) at Del Mar in November.
Does Eda know how to place one hoof ahead of the other in a rapid, businesslike manner? I submit that she does.

Bob Baffert trains Eda for Baoma Corporation.
Race twelve — Arkansas Derby (Grade I)

This is a $1,250,000 purse, 1-1/8 mile dirt track run for three-year-olds. This is a qualifying race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, and awards Road points to the top four finishers (100-40-20-10).

I’m betting my money on the fourth-favored (at 6/1) Un Ojo, piloted by veteran jockey Ramon A. Vazquez.

This bay gelding moneyed four of his six career starts, winning two, including his most recent—the Rebel Stakes (Grade II) here at Oaklawn in late February.

He notably finished second at Aqueduct in both the Withers Stakes (Grade III) in early February and the New York Stallion Series Stakes (Black Type) in December.

Ricky Courville trains Un Ojo for owners Cypress Creek Equine LLC and Whispering Oaks Farm LLC.
Saturday Horse Racing Picks for Turfway Park
Race ten —Kentucky Cup Classic Stakes

This is a $250,000 purse, 1-1/8 miles run on the all-weather track for four-year-olds and upward. I’m backing the 2/1 morning-line favorite, Visitant, ridden by veteran jockey Deshawn L. Parker.

This six-year-old bay finished in the money 13 of his s16 career starts, winning nine, including his to most recent races—the Forego Stakes (Black Type) in February and the Big Daddy Stakes (Black Type) in March.
Incidentally, Visitant also made it to the winner’s circle in last year’s Kentucky Cup Classic. Can he do it again? Magic 8-Ball says “Yes.”

Regularly ranked among the top trainers in North America for the past twenty years, William E. Morey trains Visitant for owner-breeder Williamson Racing LLC.
Race eleven — Bourbonette Oaks

This is a $250,000 purse, 1-1/16 miles race on the all-weather track for three-year-old fillies. This is a qualifying race on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks, and awards Road points to the top four finishers (50-20-10-5).

I’m backing the 5/1 second-favorite, Mrs. Barbara, piloted by Rafael Manuel Hernandez.

This dark bay filly finished four of her seven career starts in the money, winning two, including the Mazarine Stakes (Grade III) at Woodbine last November.

She notably finished fourth in both the Natalma Stakes (Grade I) last September at Woodbine and the Florida Oaks (Grade III) last month at Tampa Bay Downs.

Thoroughbred racing Hall of Famer Mark E. Casse trains Mrs. Barbara for Spruce Stable.
Race twelve — Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes (Grade III)

This is a $600,000 purse, 1-1/8 miles run on the all-weather track for three-year-olds. This is a qualifying race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, and awards Road points to the top four finishers (100-40-20-10).

Against a better set of competitors than this race presents, I wouldn’t have a lot of confidence in the performance of 2/1 favorite Tiz the Bomb, even with Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. in the irons, who rode the bay colt to victory in last October’s Bourbon Stakes (Grade II) at Keeneland.

But of this 13-horse field, the three-year-old has the most impressive record: Five money finishes in even career starts, four of them wins. It also helps that he won his most recent race—the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes (Black Type) last month here at Turfway, ridden by a relatively inexperienced jockey, Alex Achard.

Inexperienced or not, Achard helped Tiz the Bomb earn the ten points that has him currently at #26 on the R2KD leaderboard.
A win here won’t jump Tiz the Bomb to the top of the leaderboard, but he’ll be breathing the same rarified air as the other top ten Derby hopefuls.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oaklawn Park Picks: Arkansas Derby Day LP5 ticket on April 2
By J.N. Campbell


Oaklawn Park Picks - Saturday, April 2, 2022

Race 1: 6-3-7-4
Race 2: 5-2-4-7
Race 3: 8-6-4-5
Race 4: 6-2-8-4
Race 5: 2-4-5-1
Race 6: 7-4-1-8
Race 7: 6-4-5-8
Race 8: 9-5-10-1
Race 9: 6-4-9-8
Race 10: 9-7-6-5
Race 11: 5-6-8-1
Race 12: 6-3-1-9
Race 13: 12-6-8-9
**Most Likely: Secret Oath #6 (Race 12)**
**Best Value: Silver Prospector #6 (Race 9)**

LATE PICK 5…

LEG 1: (Race 9: Dirt, 1 Mile, Oaklawn Mile (G3), $400k, 4+)

On this beautiful Super Saturday at glorious Oaklawn Park, we have one of my favorite races of the Meet. The OP Mile $400k normally brings together a great group of older males, and this is a banner moment because the race is finally a “graded” race … Huzzah! It’s about bloody time! This time around we have layoff runners … class risers … class droppers … horse-for-the-courses … and of course, if that weren’t enough, a Bob Baffert entry … oh my! Speaking of the beleaguered HOF conditioner, he sends Cezanne #4 into Hot Springs off a win in the San Carlos (G2) last time out at Santa Anita. In 6 career starts, this will be the son of Curlin’s 1st attempt to race outside of California. Regular rider Flavien Prat is in-town (he will be shifting his tack to NYRA soon), and he is going to make this field keep up with him in the end. If Baffert’s charge shipped well, then he could be the one to beat. I do not like the idea of “keying” this one because it is clear that others in here have a great shot to score too. When it comes to a top pick, I am quite partial to Steve Asmussen’s Silver Prospector #6. This pro is by Declaration of War, and every time he takes to the track, he really gives it his best. I know he hasn’t won in sometime, but he is in-form right now, which makes him very dangerous. I was surprised to see Jose Lezcano come in from Aqueduct, and that is an interesting decision. He is going to be a good price, after running 2nd to Olympiad last time down at the Fair Grounds in the Mineshaft (G3). Others that are worth considering include, Brad Cox’s Fulsome #8, Chris Hartman’s Necker Island #9, and Mike McCarthy’s Law Professor #10. This is an eclectic mix of experience and style … Including a Juddmonte runner making his debut ’22 … a good form, OP winner last out at the OC80k … and finally, a well-bred son of Constitution making a surface switch with Johnny V aboard, all offer diversity and make sense. Let’s move on …

Selections: 4/6/8/9/10 (5-Deep)



LEG 2: (Race 10: Dirt, 1 1/16th, Fantasy S. (G3), $600k, 3F)

The filly version of the “Derby” is up next, and KYOaks “Points” are available, plus a major purse. I am very much against Bob Baffert’s ace that ships in from Southern California. Eda #5 is going to be a short price because bettors will see that she comes to OP with a 4-race-win-streak. I don’t see her winning here because her rivals this time will be much tougher to handle. I actually like both of Brad Cox’s entries … Mariah’s Fortune #6 and Bubble Rock #9. The former, from Steve Landers Racing, is a well-bred filly by Classic Empire who ran nicely in the slop at Oaklawn 2 races back. Even though she failed to get to the winner’s circle at the Fair Grounds in an OC50kn1x back on 18 Feb., she has some dangerous early speed. As for the latter Cox-ian, it will be interesting to see the Shortleaf homebred make the switch from turf/AW to dirt. She won the Cincy Trophy at Turfway last time out, and I think she is very talented. Cox has a way of spotting that is just second-to-none, and I would not count this one out at all. The services of Ricardo Santana are being utilized to the fullest too. One other entry that deserves to be included is from Rudy Brisset’s keep. Yuugiri #7 is a daughter of Shackleford, and she competed against Secret Oath and Ice Orchid in the Grade 3 Honeybee S. back on 26 Feb. I like her early gait, and with Florent Geroux aboard, she should be very competitive in this race. The choice to go 3-deep helps us save some cash because what is coming is going to be very difficult. Wait till you see the finale!

Selections: 6/7/9 (3-Deep)



LEG 3: (Race 11: Dirt, 6F, AOC50kn2x, 4+)

We are taking a brief respite from the stakes action, and bringing you a tough OC50kn2x contest. We have a local celeb that is entered, in a gelding by Bernardini … Johnny Oritz’s Gar Hole #5. You have to understand what a big deal this is … Arkansas bred runners rarely make the jump into open company, and this is the chance for the Shortleaf homebred to show his mettle. Arky breds, represent! With 4 wins to his credit, and the riding ability of Ricardo Santana, I would expect this one to be pretty game for his open company bow. Just in case something happens to his detriment, I also like the Jimmy DiVito entry, Absolute Chaos #6. He might not look like much, but with Mineshaft at his fetlock, he could be a nice price at 10/1 .. or higher. I like DiVito runners because they run like the dickens, and are usually overlays. He can flat out train … Let’s go 2-deep in this spot, and head to the highlight of the day with our head held high.

Selections: 5/6 (2-Deep)



LEG 4: (Race 12: Dirt, 1 1/8th, Arkansas Derby (G1), $1.25 million, 3)

It’s on … the Arkansas Derby, a G1 race with major KYD148 “Points” (100-40-20-10) has arrived. The storyline could include a one-eyed wonder, a former Baffert runner, or a young upstart, but at the end of the day, it is about the filly … D. Wayne Lukas’ Secret Oath #6. The legendary conditioner with HOF credentials is looking to turn the tables on the boys this year, and it is nothing short of pure, unadulterated excitement. This is just what horse racing needs. A filly by now-deceased Arrogate, her speed figs are above par, and then some. Lukas is once again … ala Gary Stevens and Winning Colors … going with a jockey that needs a big break. Luis Contreras is just the man for the job, and the hard scrabble rider from Mexico City is looking to make a splash in what could be the race of the year. I think he wins aboard the filly, and that makes this pick a “Single” for me. My prediction … no one can hold a candle to Lukas’ Secret Oath #6.

Selections: 6 (Single)



LEG 5: (Race 13: Dirt, 6F, OC20kn1x, 4+, Arky Breds)

We end up with Arky-types … and that is the way this is going to go … We must go as deep as possible, and that means pushing the envelope as far as possible. I think I can afford 6 in this spot, and that should get us home! My top selection in this race is Tammy Hornsby’s Goodnight Archie #12. This gelding by Archaracharch has experience at this class level, and has run against the likes of Gar Hole … that is enough for me. The best news is that one of the best riders in the colony gets aboard for the 1st time .., Fran Arrieta … At 10/1, this could be one of the plays of the day. I want to use this one, but let’s also think about the merits of Carl Deville’s You Vee Cee #2, Norm Ashauer’s Super Geek #6, Ron Westermann’s Bellamys Roan #7, Tim Martin’s Data Storm #8, and Randy Morse’s Mahomey #9. That should do the trick, and help us cash this ticket … what a day it is going to be!

Selections: 2/6/7/8/9/12 (6-Deep)

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Ticket: 4-6-8-9-10 / 6-7-9 / 5-6 / 6 / 2-6-7-8-9-12

.50 P5 TICKET COST: $90.00