Saturday 4/9/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-09-2022, 11:21 AM

AI Picks: Saturday's Kentucky Derby Preps

April 8, 2022

A trio of most-important Triple Crown preps fill the Saturday docket from California to Kentucky to New York. To assist your handicapping, top selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.

You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app. We’ve included the official track morning line odds with each runner.

Aqueduct // Race 8 // 4:45 pm ET // $750,000 Grade 2 Wood Memorial // 1-1/8 miles

#1 Mo Donegal (5-2) // 31%W
#5 Morello (8-5) // 17%W
#6 Skippylongstocking (15-1) // 15%W
#3 Early Voting (5-2) // 13%W
#7 A.P.’s Secret (20-1) // 8%W
#4 Long Term (30-1) // 6%W
#8 Barese (8-1) // 5%W
#2 Golden Code (15-1) // 5%W

Keeneland // Race 9 // 5:10 pm ET // $1 million Grade 1 Blue Grass // 1-1/8 miles

#10 Smile Happy (9-5) // 30%W
#4 Zandon (5-2) // 17%W
#6 Emmanuel (9-2) // 13%W
#1 Commandperformance (12-1) // 10%W
#9 Rattle N Roll (8-1) // 6%W
#7 Golden Glider (20-1) // 5%W
#5 Volcanic (20-1) // 3%W
#12 Grantham (20-1) // 3%W
#2 Fenwick (20-1) // 3%W
#3 Trademark (30-1) // 3%W
#8 Ethereal Road (20-1) // 3%W
#11 Blackadder (20-1) // 3%W

Santa Anita // Race 6 // 5:45 pm ET // Grade 1 $750,000 Santa Anita Derby // 1-1/8 miles

#6 Taiba (4-1) // 32%W
#3 Forbidden Kingdom (6-5) // 18%W
#4 Messier (1-1) // 18%W
#1 Happy Jack (20-1) // 11%W
#2 Armagnac (20-1) // 11%W
#5 Win The Day (20-1) // 10%W

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-09-2022, 11:21 AM

Jon White: Kentucky Derby Future Wager Analysis

April 7, 2022 | By Jon White

This week is your last chance to participate in Churchill Downs’ Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW).

Wagering in KDFW Pool 5 begins Thursday (April 7) at noon and concludes Saturday at 4:30 p.m., both ET. Keep in mind betting closes before the Wood Memorial, Blue Grass Stakes and Santa Anita Derby are run.

Pool 5 of the KDFW originally had been scheduled for last week, but Churchill officials made the decision to delay it by one week.

As usual with respect to the KDFW, Pool 5 consists of 23 individual horses, plus an “all other 3-year-olds” option.

Mike Battaglia has been making the official Kentucky Derby morning line going all the way back to 1974. This will be his 49th year in that role.

Battaglia also sets the morning line for the KDFW. He has pegged Epicenter as the 5-1 morning-line favorite in Pool 5, followed by Smile Happy at 6-1. Forbidden Kingdom, Messier and White Abarrio are next, each listed at 8-1.

The “all other 3-year-olds” option is 15-1 on Battaglia’s line.

As I have mentioned previously, what you generally want to do in future wagering is to take a swing at a possible big payoff with a horse at a really nice price. But as the Kentucky Derby gets closer, trying to find a worthwhile future bet becomes harder.

Take Simplification, for instance. He is 15-1 on Battaglia’s Pool 5 line. If you like Simplification, waiting until race day to bet him would seem the prudent way to go. Not only are you likely to get a price in that neighborhood of 15-1 on race day, the important difference is if he’s entered and doesn’t start, you get a refund. That’s not the case in future wagering.

One horse at the morning-line prices in KDFW Pool 5 that looks interesting to me is Japan’s Crown Pride at 50-1. If the UAE Derby winner stays anywhere around 50-1, I definitely will be putting some money on him. Considering Japan’s recent prowess in big races all over the globe, playing Crown Pride at around 50-1 does not seem to be a wacky idea. That’s a big enough of a price to go ahead and bet him despite not receiving a refund if it so happens that he doesn’t start.

Below are the morning-line odds for Pool 5 of the 2022 KDFW:

No. Horse (Morning Line Odds)

1. Barber Road (30-1)
2. Charge It (12-1)
3. Crown Pride (50-1)
4. Cyberknife (12-1)
5. Early Voting (20-1)
6. Emmanuel (20-1)
7. Epicenter (5-1)
8. Ethereal Road (50-1)
9; Forbidden Kingdom (8-1)
10. In Due Time (50-1)
11. Messier (8-1)
12. Mo Donegal (20-1)
13. Morello (20-1)
14. Pioneer of Medina (30-1)
15. Simplification (15-1)
16. Slow Down Andy (50-1)
17. Smile Happy (6-1)
18. Summer Is Tomorrow (50-1)
19. Tawny Port (50-1)
20. Tiz the Bomb (12-1)
21. White Abarrio (8-1)
22. Zandon (20-1)
23. Zozos (30-1)
24. “All Other 3-Year-Olds” (15-1)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-09-2022, 11:22 AM

Race of the Week: G2 Royal Heroine at Santa Anita | Saturday

April 7, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Santa Anita Derby Day features several standout stars in stakes action across a fantastic day of racing, From Adare Manor in the Santa Anita Oaks to the Derby's 1-2 punch of Messier and Forbidden Kingdom, the road to Louisville across two divisions runs through Arcadia. The G2 $200,000 Royal Heroine for turf milers will be Race 7 on the 12-race program and kick off the Rainbow 6.

Horseplayers with Xpressbet and 1/ST BET can enjoy up to a $10 money-back special on win bets on the Santa Anita Derby if your selection finishes second or third. The same offer applies to Saturday's fellow Triple Crown preps, the Blue Grass at Keeneland and Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.

Field Depth:
G1 winner GOING GLOBAL holds all the credentials in this field. JAVANICA, AVENUE DE FRANCE and PARK AVENUE are G3-placed. The bulk of GOING GLOBAL's races have been against then-3YOs, while PARK AVENUE and AVENUE DE FRANCE have been steadily facing elder stakes players and the class gap might be a bit closer than it appears.

Pace:
PARK AVENUE could be controlling speed and dangerous on the front end with only JAVANICA to worry about in a pressing role on paper. Deep closers will have their work cut out for them.

Our Eyes:
GOING GLOBAL wasn't herself in the off-the-turf G1 American Oaks, but you can't fault her connections for trying the dit when you're 4-5 in a G1. That was Dec. 26, and she's been freshened more than 3 months for this reappearance. She's raced only once against elders, and that ws a victory in the G2 Goldikova at Del Mar against a good group that included Zofelle and Princess Grace (who was favored). It's the only time in her last 6 in which she wasn't the public choice; but that won't be the case Saturday. GOING GLOBAL will be 3-5 or less. Umberto Rispoli replaces Flavien Prat, who has departed for the Keeneland meet. The pace works against her here and the new rider may not know all the buttons, while capable. If there's an upset hope, that's it.

If you're going to beat a standout like GOING GLOBAL, you have to do it with an adverse running style. If the race sets up for her style, you're not going to be good enough to upend her. That makes PARK AVENUE the most likely to pull this off after a wire-to-wire victory in her first turf try 20 days ago. Trainer John Sadler strikes while the iron is hot with this stakes-placed dirt runner. There's a decent amount of turf pedigree on the damside and sire Quality Road is having some success with grass runners.

AVENUE DE FRANCE also has pace worries as a one-run closer. She would cap a great meet for Leonard Powell iwth an upset here, like she nearly pulled off in the G3 Megahertz over this course and distance at 24-1 in late January. JAVANICA could be icing on a major cake day for jockey John Velazquez, who pilots Adare Manor in the Oaks and Messier in the Derby. JAVANICA is capable of being near the front if the pace is on the tepid side, but isn't a speed merchant by any means. She was a hard-luck filly in a couple of nearrow stakes losses last year, but her last few have been disappointing.

Allowance winner EXCELERINA is likely here to help fill the race for stablemate GOING GLOBAL, but she's also capable of getting some easy black-type in a field of 5 if she beats a few runners and that's big on the checkbook for a filly when it comes time for breeding.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
GOING GLOBAL is 4-4 on the Santa Anita turf, the class and will come running at the end.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
Not applicable in a field of 5, but we're hoping the price is fair on PARK AVENUE and that we can compound some value with the Santa Anita Derby lead-in by taking a stand where a lot of tickets will split with the dual favorites.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$100 daily double from Race 6, MESSIER to PARK AVENUE.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-09-2022, 11:22 AM

Top Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, April 9, 2022
By J.W. Paine in Horse Racing
| April 8, 2022 2:50 pm PDT
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Talk about Xtreme horse racing—we’ve got 14 stakes races spread across Aqueduct Racetrack, Keeneland Race Course, and Santa Anita Park to cover for our Saturday picks.

That 14 includes three of the last few qualifying races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby (R2KD), as well as two of the qualifying stakes races for the Kentucky Oaks.

So, we’ve got a lot to cover, but before you move on down to the good bits, be sure to check out all your betting options at one of our best horse racing wagering sites.

Good luck!
My Saturday Picks for Aqueduct Racetrack
Race five — Distaff Handicap (Grade III)

This is a $150,000 purse, seven-furlong run on the dirt track for fillies and mares four years old and upward.

I see no reason to argue with the morning-line over this one, so my two dollars is on the 1/1 favorite, Search Results, ridden by Jose L. Ortiz.

This four-year-old dark bay filly moneyed all six of her career starts, winning four, including last year’s Gazelle Stakes (Grade I) and the Acorn Stakes (Grade I) at Belmont.

Search Results has some solid competition in this race, but she will prevail.

Longtime Breeders’ Cup veteran and multiple Eclipse Award recipient Chad C. Brown trains Search Results for Klaravich Stables, Inc.
Race eight — Wood Memorial Stakes (Grade II)

This is a $750,000 purse, 1-1/8 miles dirt track run for three-year-olds. The Wood Memorial is a qualifying horse race on the Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby, and awards leaderboard points to the top four finishers (100-40-20-10).

I like the 8/5 morning-line favorite in this race: Morello, with Jose Lezcano in the irons.

This colt won all three of his career starts, including his initial maiden attempt last November, the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes (Black Type) in February, and the Gotham Stakes (Grade III) in March—all here at Aqueduct.
Morello is already #12 on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 50 points.

Thoroughbred Racing Hall of Famer Steven M. Asmussen trains Morello for owners Blue Lion Thoroughbreds, Craig Taylor, and Diamond T Racing.
Race nine — Carter Handicap (Grade I)

This is a $300,000 purse, seven-furlong dirt track race for four-year-olds and upward. My money’s on the 8/5 favorite, Speaker’s Corner, with veteran jockey Junior Alvarado aboard.

This four-year-old bay colt finished in the money seven of his eight career starts, winning five. His two most recent wins were the Fred W. Hooper Stakes (Grade III) in January and the Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes (Grade II) last month. In this eight-horse field, he’s got the numbers to win.

Hall of Famer William I. Mott trains Speaker’s Corner for owner-breeder Godolphin, LLC.
Race ten — Gazelle Stakes (Grade III)

This is a $250,000 purse, 1-1/8 miles dirt track run for three-year-old fillies. The Gazelle Stakes is a qualifying race on the Road to the 2022 Kentucky Oaks, and awards leaderboard points to the top four finishers (100-40-20-10).

I’m betting my two dollars on the second-favored (at 5/2) Classy Edition, piloted by Joel Rosario.

This bay filly moneyed all four of her career starts, winning three, including the Joseph A. Gimma Stakes (Black Type) at Belmont last September and the Key Cents Stakes (Black Type) here at Aqueduct in November.

She also notably finished second in the Davona Dale Stakes (Grade II) at Gulfstream Park last month.

Her stats are practically a carbon copy of those of Venti Valentine, the favorite in this race, but Classy Edition’s speed figures overall are slightly better.

Todd A. Pletcher trains Classy Edition for owners Lawana L. and Robert E. Low.
Race eleven — Bay Shore Stakes (Grade III)

This is a $200,000 purse, seven-furlong dirt track race for three-year-olds. I like the 2/1 morning-line favorite, Wit, ridden by Jose L. Ortiz.

This dark bay colt moneyed all four of his career starts, winning two, including the Sanford Stakes (Grade III) last July at Saratoga.

He notably finished second in the Hopeful Stakes (Grade I) at Saratoga last September, and third in the Champagne Stakes (Grade I) at Belmont last October. Versus the rest of the ten-horse field, he’s got this.

Todd A. Pletcher trains Wit for owners Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable, and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck).
Saturday’s Horse Racing Picks for Keeneland Race Course
Race five — Commonwealth Stakes (Grade III)

This is a $300,000 purse, seven-furlong dirt track race for four-year-olds and upward.

Any race that includes two Kentucky Derby contenders from previous years is bound to be interesting, and I have to call this one for the 5/1 second-favored O Besos, piloted by Irad Ortiz, Jr.

The four-year-old chestnut colt finished five of his nine career starts in the money, winning three. He notably finished third in the

Last year’s Louisiana Derby (Grade II), and second in the Matt Winn Stakes (Grade III) last May.

In the 2021 Kentucky Derby, O Besos was still fighting for a better position competition when he crossed the finish line fifth out of 19.

Gregory D. Foley trains O Besos for owners Bernard Racing LLC, Tagg Team Racing, West Point Thoroughbreds, and Terry L. Stephens.
Race six — Appalachian Stakes (Grade II)

This is a $400,000 purse, one-mile turf run for three-year-old fillies. This looks like a two-horse race with a handful of extras sent over from central casting. I’m buying my win ticket on Spendarella, with Tyler Gaffalione in the irons.

This bay filly won both of her career starts, including the Herecomesthebride Stakes (Grade III) at Gulfstream last month.

Thirty-year horse racing veteran H. Graham Motion trains Spendarella for Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck).

Spendarella’s only real competition here is the 5/2 second-favorite, French import Dolce Zel, ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Trained by Chad C. Brown for owners Michael Dubb, Madaket Stables LLC, and Robert V. LaPenta, this Dolce Zel won two of her three career starts, including the Florida Oaks (Grade III) last month.
Race seven — Madison Stakes (Grade I)

This is a $500,000 purse, seven-furlong dirt track run for fillies and mares four years old and upward. I’m buying a win ticket on the 7/2 third-favorite, Bell’s the One, with Corey J. Lanerie aboard.

This six-year-old bay mare has been a consistent winner throughout her career, with 17 money finishes in 22 starts, 11 of them wins.

Her most notable wins were the Raven Run Stakes (Grade II) in 2019, the Derby City Distaff Stakes (Grade I) in 2020 at Churchill Downs, and the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (Grade II) last October.
Bell’s the One has spent her entire career making money in stakes races (20 of 22). Why should this one be any different?

Neil L. Pessin trains Bell’s the One for Lothenbach Stables, Inc. (Bob Lothenbach).
Race eight — Shakertown Stakes (Grade II)

This is a $350,000 purse, 5-1/2 furlong turf run for three-year-olds and upward. I’m going to agree with the morning line here and bet on the 4/5 favorite, Golden Pal, ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.

This four-year-old bay colt finished seven of his eight career starts in the money, winning five, including the Quick Call Stakes (Grade III) at Saratoga last July, the Woodford Stakes (Grade II) at Keeneland in October, and the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Grade I) at Del Mar in December.

Longtime Breeders’ Cup veteran Wesley A. Ward trains Golden Pal for Mrs. John Magnier, Michael B. Tabor, Derrick Smith, and Westerberg.
Race nine — Blue Grass Stakes (Grade I)

This is a $1,000,000 purse, 1-1/8 mile dirt track run for three-year-olds. The Blue Grass Stakes is a qualifying race on the Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby, and awards leaderboard points to the top four finishers (100-40-20-10).

I’m betting on the 9/5 morning-line favorite, Smile Happy, piloted by Corey J. Lanerie.

This dark bay colt finished in the money or all three of his career starts, winning two, including the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (Grade II) at Churchill Downs last November.

He notably finished second in the Risen Star Stakes (Grade II) at Fair Grounds Race Course in February. Both of his stakes finishes gave him points on the 2022 R2KD leaderboard, and he enters this race at #17 with 30 points.

Kenneth G. McPeek trains Smile Happy for Lucky Seven Stable (Mackin).
Saturday Horse Racing Picks for Santa Anita Park
Race four — Santa Anita Oaks (Grade II)

This is a $400,000 purse, 1-1/16 miles dirt track race for three-year-old fillies. The Santa Anita Oaks is a qualifying horse race on the Road to the 2022 Kentucky Oaks, and awards leaderboard points to the top four finishers (100-40-20-10).

In this short field of five, my money is on the 5/2 second-favored Under the Stars, ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Mike E. Smith.

This bay filly finished all five of her career starts in the money, winning two, including the Santa Ynez Stakes (Grade II) in January.

Under the Stars also finished second in a field of nine in the Santa Ysabel Stakes (Grade III) just last month.

Tim Yakteen has taken over the training of Under the Stars—formerly in training under Bob Baffert—for owners Mrs. John Magnier, Michael B. Tabor, and Derrick Smith.
Race five — Providencia Stakes (Grade III)

This is a $100,000 purse, 1-1/8 miles turf run for three-year-old fillies. I’m betting my two dollars on the fourth-favored Cairo Memories, piloted by Mike E. Smith.

This gray roan filly moneyed three of her five career starts, winning two, including the Surfer Girl Stakes (Listed) in October.

She notably finished second in a field of six in the Starlet Stakes (Grade I) at Los Alamitos in December. Despite her disappointing seventh-place finish in the Santa Ysabel Stakes (Grade III) in March, she still has the numbers and the experience to make her my top choice for this turf run.

Robert B. Hess, Jr. trains Cairo Memories for owners David A. Bernsen, LLC and Schroeder Farms LLC.
Race six — Santa Anita Derby (Grade I)

This is a $750,000 purse, 1-1/8 miles dirt track run for three-year-olds. The Santa Anita Derby is a qualifying race on the Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby, and awards leaderboard points to the top four finishers (100-40-20-10).

I’m betting on the second-favored (at 6/5) Forbidden Kingdom, with ace jockey Juan J. Hernandez in the irons.

This chestnut colt is currently #11 on the R2KD leaderboard with 50 points. For the record, Forbidden Kingdom has moneyed all five of his career starts, including his two most recent races, the San Vicente Stakes (Grade II) in January and the San Felipe Stakes (Grade II) in March.

Longtime horse racing veteran and Thoroughbred Racing Hall of Famer Richard E. Mandella trains Forbidden Kingdom for owners MyRacehorse and Spendthrift Farm LLC.
Race seven — Royal Heroine Stakes (Grade II)

This is a $200,000 purse, one-mile turf run for fillies and mares four years old and upward.

This race is my no-brainer pick for Saturday: 4/5 morning-line favorite Going Global, piloted by veteran jockey Umberto Rispoli.

This Irish import finished eight of her 12 career starts in the money, winning seven, including the Del Mar Oaks (Grade I) last August and the Goldikova Stakes (Grade II) in November.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-09-2022, 11:22 AM

Rocket Picks ��: Keeneland, Santa Anita, and Aqueduct for April 9, 2022
By: Aaron Halterman

This massive week of racing continues with the last major day for Kentucky Derby prep races! For the free pick 4, we will head to Keeneland today. We will also have full card selections for Santa Anita and Aqueduct for the paid Rockets, so be sure to check those out. Let’s go!

Below is our free Late Pick 4 for Keeneland:

Keeneland April 9, 2022

Race 8: Shakertown Stakes (G2)

#10 Golden Pal is back after an amazing effort last time out to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) at Del Mar. He’s been working very strongly leading up to this race and has 2 very impressive wins over this turf course. #11 Just Might is very consistent when sprinting on the turf.

Race 9: Blue Grass Stakes (G1)
freestar

#10 Smile Happy is the deserving favorite and should improve in his second race of the year. #4 Zandon has been working very well leading up to the race and many of his rivals look similar, so if he fires big like past Brown horses, then he’ll be tough to beat.

Race 10: Allowance Optional Claiming

#11 Into Vanishing was second last time out to the champion Letruska, making this a major class drop. #12 Semble Juste also gets a nice class drop for today’s race.

Race 11: Allowance

#10 Momos drops down in class for this race after running well against stakes company at similar distances. #11 Artemus Citylimits has hit the board in 10 straight races.

THE TICKET

$.50 Pick 4 (Races 8-11) 10 / 1,4,5,6,10 / 1,4,5,11,12 / 10,11,12 – $37.50

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-09-2022, 11:23 AM

Aqueduct Picks: Wood Memorial Day, plus a bevy of stakes on April 9
By J.N. Campbell

Aqueduct Racetrack Picks - Saturday, April 9, 2022

Race 1: 9-6-1-2
Race 2: 1-2-6-4
Race 3: 11-4-1-9
Race 4: 1/1A-3-6-4
Race 5: 6-2-3-5
Race 6: 5-2-7-3
Race 7: 4-3-1-6
Race 8: 5-2-3-1
Race 9: 5-1-8-4
Race 10: 6-3-7-5
Race 11: 5-1-9-6
**Most Likely: Classy Edition #6 (Race 10)**
**Best Value: First Captain #5 (Race 9)**

Most Likely Winner: (Race 10: Classy Edition #6, 5/2):

The female version of the Wood is the Grade 3 Gazelle S. for 3-yr-old fillies (KY Oaks "Points" are on the table), and this race comes down to the fortunes of Todd Pletcher’s daughter of Classic Empire (a half to Morello). The filly already has a win over this surface in late November in a “Non-G.” That was her 3rd win in-a-row, and it was only next time out in the Davona Dale (G2) that she missed. In her defense, that was against Shug McGaughey’s Kathleen O, a horse that will be one of the favorites in the KYOaks. Pletcher teams with Joel Rosario, who has packed his overnight bag, and hopped a flight to Long Island. I am not too concerned with the stretch out because I think she can take that kind of step forward. This is really the moment when Pletcher opens up the floodgates at the NYRA track and rakes purse money into the coffers. She wins …

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #6

Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 9: First Captain #5, 8/1):

The Grade 1 Carter Handicap is here! Trying to beat Bill Mott’s Speaker’s Corner is going to be a chore … but the reward will be quite nice. I think I have an antidote to this on-the-engine-type, and it’s Shug McGaughey’s First Captain #5. This colt by Curlin is one bred by Chef Bobby Flay. West Point and Siena Farm co-own this talented tracker, that made a ton of noise last year after he won the Dwyer (G3) at Belmont. I think this one is just getting cranked up for his ’22 campaign, and I fully expect to see him in the winner’s circle on Saturday. Jockey Jose Ortiz can be a force in spots like these, and he knows his mount, having been the only rider that he has ever had. What a price this younger entry is going to be!

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS # ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)

Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 8: Dirt, 1 1/8th, Wood Memorial S. (G2), $750k, 3):

Even though the Wood Memorial has not played a significant role in the Triple Crown “conversation,” that doesn’t mean it’s one “Prep” to overlook … not by a long shot. Speaking of those, we had some last year … Will we see a repeat? This year’s edition of the Wood has some tough favorites in Todd Pletcher’s Mo Donegal #1, Chad Brown’s Early Voting #3, and Steve Asmussen’s Morello #5. Each of these colts has their assets, and question marks … Pletcher’s entry (part of an uncoupled set) is looking to rebound after a miss against White Abarrio in early Feb. at Gulfstream Park in the G3 Holy Bull. The well-bred son of Uncle Mo won at “The Big A” in the Remsen S. (G2) somewhat controversially against Zandon. It is hard to gauge exactly how the Donegal Racing ace will respond here, but one thing is for sure, Joel Rosario is going to give it his best. When it comes to tackling a 2-turn route like this race, we already know that Brown’s entry has what it takes because he bested a very good field (Un Ojo and Gilded Age, among others) in the Withers S. (G3) going 1 1/8th. The Gun Runner router clearly appreciates the MT, and Jose Ortiz will be aboard yet again. Can this colt make it a perfect 3/3? As for Asmussen’s son of Classic Empire, he is my top selection, and I think the world of this power player. In the Gotham (G3) after winning impressively in the Jimmy Winkfield $100, he really turned up the heat with Jose Lezcano aboard (Pletcher’s Golden Code #2 was 3rd). Of course, going this distance and with this pedigree will make some pause … Not me … I want to make a bold statement right now … I think this Asmussen-trainee is a more talented runner than Epicenter. I know … again, it was prefaced with a “bold statement.” In a tough spot like this one, the cream rises to the top … and in this instance, it is Blue Lion Thoroughbreds and their talented runner. Time to book for Churchill Downs … Asmussen on top, again …

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Trifecta Wheel, 5 w 1/2/3 w 1/2/3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-09-2022, 11:23 AM

The Jury: Bets and fades for April 9
TwinSpires Staff

The TwinSpires Jury, consisting of James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson, are back with thoughts on the final weekend of major Kentucky Derby (G1) preps and other top-level stakes at Keeneland, Aqueduct, and Santa Anita.
What is your best bet?

James Scully: Plenty of speed is signed on for the Madison (G1) at Keeneland, and #5 Bell's the One (7-2) will be rolling late from off the pace. The six-year-old mare concluded last season on a strong note, winning back-to-back stakes at Keeneland and Churchill Downs, and she's been training forwardly for her return. A Grade 1 winner at seven furlongs, Bell's the One will take advantage of a terrific setup.

Kellie Reilly: In Keeneland's fourth race on Saturday, #9 Macallan (4-1) has the profile of a Todd Pletcher sophomore on the rise. By Quality Road and out of a full sister to multiple Grade 2 winner Fed Biz, from the family of Johannesburg and Pulpit, Macallan arguably should have won on debut sprinting at Tampa Bay Downs. He appeared to make a rookie mistake by losing position early, and nearly atoned with a closing rush to miss on the wire. That experience, and the stretch-out to two turns next time, helped as he rolled by daylight. The Triple Crown nominee still looked a touch green there, suggesting more to come. Another step forward in this allowance would probably launch him into stakes company.

Vance Hanson: Having tabbed #6 The Lir Jet (12-1) to beat Golden Pal in the 2020 Norfolk (G2) at Royal Ascot, I'd be remiss if I didn't like him at a potentially longer price to topple the two-time Breeders' Cup winner in Saturday's Shakertown (G2) at Keeneland. Gelded last season, The Lir Jet reversed a spate of lackluster form when impressively taking his U.S. debut in the Franklin-Simpson S. at Kentucky Downs in September. Although he wouldn't want the ground too soft and the distance might be slightly shorter than he really prefers, The Lir Jet would be a tempting play at 8-1 or higher as Golden Pal is sure to be odds-on or thereabouts.

Who is the horse to fade?

JS: #5 Nashville (1-1) flashed forward as lone speed and dominated overmatched allowance rivals at Fair Grounds last time, but #10 Prevalence exits a sharp win and has the speed to press the favorite in the Commonwealth (G3) at Keeneland. Unplaced in lone attempt at the seven-furlong trip, Nashville dropped his first two starts at Oaklawn this season, and he may prove vulnerable at short odds Saturday.

KR: Wood Memorial (G2) favorite #5 Morello (8-5) is clearly talented, but I'm not persuaded that 1 1/8 miles will be his favorite trip. Especially in the context of a Kentucky Derby prep, with the prospect of a solid pace, he's liable to be beaten for stamina by the likes of #1 Mo Donegal and #3 Early Voting. Note that Morello is related to Social Inclusion, a brilliant sprinter/miler who was third in the 2014 Wood.

VH: #6 Kimari (2-1) might prove vulnerable in her title defense of the Madison at Keeneland. Although perfect in two starts over the track and owning a fondness for the wet conditions that might exist at post time, her allowance prep at Gulfstream (94) wasn't quite as strong on the Brisnet Speed rating scale as her lead-in to this race a year ago, the Spring Fever S. at Oaklawn (105). While fully capable of improving off that effort, she's facing a deeper cast this year and offers little in the way of value.

What else is worth noting?

JS: In his last dirt start, #1 O P Firecracker closely stalked the pace before drawing off to break his maiden at Churchill Downs in late November. Robert Medina brought him back in a pair of stakes on the Tapeta at Turfway Park this year, and the sophomore colt rallied well in both starts, finishing only four lengths back of Tiz the Bomb in the Battaglia Memorial most recently. O P Firecracker moves back to the main track in a field lacking speed, receives first-time Lasix, and he'll be reunited with Tyler Gaffalione, who was up for the maiden win. Look for a better trip just off the speed, and O P Firecracker rates top billing at 12-1 on the morning line in Keeneland's fourth race.

KS: Wesley Ward sprint stars will be out in force at Keeneland Saturday, with Golden Pal the prohibitive favorite in the Shakertown (G2) and Kimari mounting a title defense in the Madison (G1). But there could be some Brazilian flavor to add value. Mark Casse's #9 Filo di Arianna (12-1) puts his unbeaten record on the line in the 5 1/2-furlong Shakertown, the shortest trip of his career. Yet Brazilian imports have done well on this course (see the past two Keeneland Turf Mile [G1] winners, In Love and Ivar), and Filo di Arianna descends from a sister to Prankster, the 1999 Shakertown hero. He could round out the exacta with Golden Pal — or maybe even upset if the turf is soft. Speaking of In Love and Ivar, their trainer, Paulo Lobo, sends out #2 Center Aisle (12-1) in the Madison. Although this seven-furlong test has come up deep, Center Aisle started out with a pretty big reputation for Chad Brown, and Lobo has the $1.5 million daughter of Into Mischief in sharp form.

VH: Besides the intrigue of the three Kentucky Derby preps, I'm also interested to see any progress #2 Ain't Easy (4-1) might show in the Santa Anita Oaks (G1). Forced to miss the Breeders' Cup last fall after facile victories in her first two starts, Ain't Easy returned to action in last month's Santa Ysabel (G3) and was clearly short of peak fitness against a pair of Bob Baffert-trained rivals that had been active all winter. She obviously needs a better effort to warrant a trip east for the Kentucky Oaks (G1), but she remains with plenty of upside.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-09-2022, 11:23 AM

Aqueduct Racetrack Picks - Saturday, April 9, 2022

Race 1: 9-6-1-2
Race 2: 1-2-6-4
Race 3: 11-4-1-9
Race 4: 1/1A-3-6-4
Race 5: 6-2-3-5
Race 6: 5-2-7-3
Race 7: 4-3-1-6
Race 8: 5-2-3-1
Race 9: 5-1-8-4
Race 10: 6-3-7-5
Race 11: 5-1-9-6
**Most Likely: Classy Edition #6 (Race 10)**
**Best Value: First Captain #5 (Race 9)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-09-2022, 11:24 AM

Charles Town Picks - Saturday, April 9, 2022

Race 1: 4-1-6-5
Race 2: 4-6-2-1
Race 3: 3-6-7-2
Race 4: 3-7-2-1
Race 5: 2-1-3-6
Race 6: 7-2-4-1
Race 7: 3-2-1-6
Race 8: 3-1-4-6
**Most Likely Winner: Hazy Winter #4 (Race 1)**
**Best Value: Sister Secret Lee #3 (Race 8)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-09-2022, 11:24 AM

Gulfstream Park Picks - Saturday, April 9, 2022

Race 1: 1-8-6-2
Race 2: 1-2-7-3
Race 3: 1-6-8-3
Race 4: 2-5-1-4
Race 5: 8-2-7-6
Race 6: 8-2-5-3
Race 7: 8-9-3-10
Race 8: 6-5-3-2
Race 9: 4-6-3-1
Race 10: 7-1-6-8
Race 11: 2-7-6-9
**Most Likely: Caminero (Race 5)**
**Best Value: Similar Taste (Race 1)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-09-2022, 11:24 AM

Keeneland Picks - Saturday, April 9, 2022

Race 1: 11-5-12-4
Race 2: 6-1-5-10
Race 3: 5-3-12-4
Race 4: 12-4-6-3
Race 5: 8-5-7-10 (1st Leg, P5)
Race 6: 5-3-4-2 (2nd Leg, P5)
Race 7: 4-2-3-6 (3rd Leg, P5)
Race 8: 5-11-10-6 (4th Leg, P5)
Race 9: 8-11-12-4 (Final Leg, P5)
Race 10: 2-11-5-12
Race 11: 7-12-6-4
**Most Likely: Skims (GB) #5 (Race 6)**
**Best Value: Ethereal Road #8 (Race 9)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-09-2022, 11:24 AM

Laurel Park Picks - Saturday, April 9, 2022

Race 1: 7-5-1-2
Race 2: 5-6-1-2
Race 3: 5-1-7-8
Race 4: 3-7-6-1
Race 5: 3-1-2-7
Race 6: 5-4-2-8
Race 7: 4-1-5-7
Race 8: 5-6-1-2
Race 9: 1-6-3-2
**Most Likely Winner: Vanhoofer #7 (Race 1)**
**Best Value: Bizzy Bizzy #5 (Race 3)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-09-2022, 11:25 AM

Mahoning Valley Picks - Saturday, April 9, 2022

Race 1: 6-1-3-4
Race 2: 1-6-5-4
Race 3: 5-3-2-1
Race 4: 1-5-2-6
Race 5: 5-6-2-1
Race 6: 3-4-5-1
Race 7: 5-6-8-2
Race 8: 3-2-7-4
Race 9: 1-4-5-3
**Most Likely Winner: Island Winter #5 (Race 3)**
**Best Value: Icy Rain #1 (Race 4)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-09-2022, 11:25 AM

Oaklawn Park Picks - Saturday, April 9, 2022

Race 1: 4-3-7-5
Race 2: 6-7-2-4
Race 3: 8-4-1-6
Race 4: 7-2-1-5
Race 5: 6-2-3-10
Race 6: 9-3-8-2
Race 7: 5-2-4-7
Race 8: 3-8-6-5
Race 9: 2-6-7-5
Race 10: 2-7-1-4
**Most Likely: Punchy Girl #5 (Race 7)**
**Best Value: Peace Dog #2 (Race 9)**

Saturday 4/9/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Saturday 4/9/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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