Saturday 4/16/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-16-2022, 07:31 AM

National League
Diamondbacks (2-5) @ Mets (6-2)
— Gallen is making his first ’22 start.
— He was 2-3, 4.55 in 11 starts on road last year.
— He is 0-1, 3.18 in three starts vs New York.
— Arizona lost five of its last six games.
— Under is 5-2 in their games this season.

— Carrasco allowed a run in 5.2 IP (72 PT) in his first ’22 start.
— He is 1-0, 2.00 in two games (1 start) vs Arizona
— Mets won six of their first eight games.
— Under is 4-3-1 in New York games.

Braves (4-5) @ Padres (5-4)
— Anderson allowed 5 runs in 2.2 IP (74 PT) in his first ’22 start.
— In his career, he is 6-5, 3.40 in 16 road starts.
— He hasn’t pitched against San Diego.
— Braves lost four of their last six games.
— Over is 5-3-1 in their games this month.

— Martinez allowed a run in five IP (83 PT) in his first ‘22 start.
— He threw two scoreless IP in a relief stint vs Atlanta.
— San Diego won five of its last eight games.
— Under is 6-3 in their games this month.

Phillies (3-5) @ Marlins (3-4)
— Suarez allowed 3 runs in 2.2 IP (63 PT) in his first ’22 start.
— He is 2-1, 3.60 in 13 games (2 starts) vs Miami
— Phillies lost five of their last six games.
— Under is 4-2-1 in their last seven games.

— Rogers allowed 3 runs in five IP (74 PT) in his first ’22 start.
— He is 1-2, 4.91 in five starts vs Philly.
— Marlins lost four of their first seven games.
— Five of last six Miami games stayed under the total.

Nationals (4-5) @ Pirates (3-4)
— Rogers allowed a run in 5.1 IP (74 PT) in his first ’22 start.
— He gave up 2 runs in 6.2 IP, in one start vs Pittsburgh
— Nationals are 4-5 in their first nine games.
— Over is 3-1-1 in their last five games.

— Wilson allowed 3 runs in four IP (64 PT) in his first ’22 start.
— He is 0-1, 11.81 in two games (1 start) vs Washington.
— Pirates won three of their last five games.
— Over is 3-2-2 in their games.

Cardinals (4-2) @ Brewers (4-4)
— Matz allowed 7 runs in three IP (75 PT) in his first ’22 start.
— He is 4-2, 3.41 in six starts vs Milwaukee.
— Cardinals won four of their first six games.
— Over was 4-1-1 in those games.

— Houser allowed 2 runs in 3.2 IP (76 PT) in first ’22 start.
— He is 4-2, 2.33 in 11 games (8 starts) vs St Louis.
— Brewers won four of their last six games.
— Under is 3-1-1 in their last five games.

Cubs (4-3) @ Rockies (5-2)
— Leiter is making his first MLB appearance since 2018.
— He is 3-7, 5.53 in 47 MLB games (11 starts)
— He gave up a run in 8.1 IP, in three relief stints vs Colorado.
— Cubs won four of their first seven games.
— Under was 3-3-1 in those games.

— Senzatela allowed 4 runs in 3.1 IP (66 PT) in his first ’22 start.
— He is 1-1, 7.09 in six games (5 starts) vs Chicago.
— Colorado won five of its last six games.
— Under is 4-2-1 in their games this season.

Reds (2-6) @ Dodgers (5-2)
— Greene allowed 3 runs in five IP (92 PT) in his first MLB start.
— He got 14 whiffs on 41 swings in that game.
— Reds lost six of their last seven games.
— Over is 4-2-1 in those games.

— Urias allowed 6 runs in two IP (57 PT) in his first ’22 start, in Denver.
— He is 1-0, 2.45 in two starts vs Cincinnati.
— Dodgers won five of their first seven games.
— Under was 4-2-1 in those games.

American League
Rays (4-4) @ White Sox (5-2)
— Kluber allowed no runs in 4.2 IP (87 PT) in his first ’22 start.
— He is 6-2, 2.68 in 11 starts at Chicago.
— Tampa Bay lost four of its last five games.
— Over is 3-2 in their last five games.

— Kopech allowed a run in four IP (69 PT) in his first ’22 start.
— In his career, he is 3-4, 3.75 in 25 home games (5 starts)
— He hasn’t pitched against Tampa Bay.
— White Sox won five of their last six games.
— Under is 3-1 in their last four games.

A’s (4-4) @ Blue Jays (5-3)
— Blackburn allowed no runs in five IP (71 PT) in his first ’22 start.
— He is 0-1, 3.38 in two starts vs Toronto
— A’s won four of their last six games.
— Over is 4-4 in their first eight games.

— Ryu allowed 6 runs in 3.1 IP (70 PT) in his first ’22 start.
— He is 2-0, 3.27 in two starts vs Oakland.
— Toronto won three of its four home games.
— Under is 4-1 in their last five games.

Tigers (4-4) @ Royals (2-5)
— Manning allowed one run in six IP (68 PT) in his first ’22 start
— In his career, he is 1-4, 6.63 in eight road starts.
— He hasn’t pitched against Kansas City
— Detroit split its first eight games.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.

— Bubic allowed 5 runs in 0.2 IP (29 PT) in his first ’22 start.
— He is 2-0, 2.28 in five games (4 starts) vs Detroit.
— Royals lost last five games, giving up 38 runs.
— Three of last five games went over the total.

Twins (3-4) @ Red Sox (3-4)
— Gray allowed 2 runs in 4.2 IP (76 PT) in his first ’22 start.
— He is 1-6, 6.64 in nine games (8 starts) vs Boston.
— Twins lost four of first seven games.
— Under is 4-2-1 in their first six games.

— Houck allowed 3 runs in 3.1 IP (78 PT) in his first ’22 start.
— He gave up 3 runs in 4.2 IP, in one start vs Minnesota.
— Red Sox won three of their last five games.
— Four of Boston’s last six games stayed under the total.

Angels (4-4) @ Rangers (2-5)
— Syndergaard allowed no runs in 5.1 IP (76 PT) in his first ’22 start.
— He hasn’t pitched against Texas.
— Angels won four of their last six games.
— Under is 5-3 in their games.

— Hearn allowed a run in four IP (76 PT) in his first ’22 start.
— He is 1-1, 4.87 in six games (2 starts) vs Anaheim
— Rangers are off to a 2-5 start, despite scoring 44 runs.
— Over was 4-2-1 in those games.

Bronx (4-4) @ Orioles (2-5)
— Taillon allowed 2 runs in five IP (72 PT) in his first ’22 start.
— He is 0-0, 3.27 in two starts vs Baltimore.
— New York lost four of its last six games.
— Six of last seven New York games stayed under the total.

— Wells allowed 4 runs in 1.2 IP (54 PT) in his first ’22 start.
— He is 0-1, 4.70 in six relief stints (7.2 IP) vs New York.
— Baltimore lost five of its first seven games.
— Under was 6-0-1 in those games.

Astros (4-3) @ Mariners (4-4)
— Verlander allowed a run in five IP (80 PT) in his first ’22 start.
— He is 7-5, 3.68 in 15 starts at Safeco Field.
— Astros won four of their first seven games.
— Under was 5-2 in those games.

— Flexen allowed 3 runs in 4.1 IP (91 PT) in his ’22 debut.
— He is 0-3, 7.78 in four starts vs Houston.
— Seattle lost four of their last six games.
— Under is 5-3 in their games.

Interleague
Giants (5-2) @ Guardians (4-3)
— DeSclafani allowed 2 runs in 3.2 IP (74 PT) in his first ’22 start.
— He is 2-1, 3.23 in five starts vs Cleveland.
— Giants won five of their first seven games.
— Under is 5-1 in their last six games.

— Quantrill allowed 2 runs in five IP (76 PT) in his first ’22 start.
— He is 1-0, 3.72 in two starts vs San Francisco.
— Cleveland won four of last five games, scoring 45 runs.
— Over is 4-1 in last five Cleveland games.
— Guardians scored total of two runs in their three losses.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-16-2022, 09:47 AM

Top Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, April 16, 2022
By J.W. Paine in Horse Racing

We’re assessing selected races at Aqueduct Racetrack, Keeneland Race Course, and Oaklawn Park for our Saturday horse racing picks.

One of those races—the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland—is the final qualifying race on the Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby. A wildcard race, the Lexington gives some of the Derby hopefuls riding the bubble on the R2KD leaderboard one last chance to squeeze past competitors for a post position at Churchill Downs on Derby Day, May 7, 2022.

Before you dive into my prognostications, be sure to check the full race-cards for all three tracks at our top horse racing wagering sites.

Good luck!
Saturday’s Picks for Keeneland Race Course

If you’re looking to bet on horse races this weekend, the action at Keeneland Race Course gets us started.
Race Eight

Race eight is the Giant’s Causeway Stakes, a $200,000 purse,5-1/2 furlong run on the turf course for fillies and mares three years old and upward.

While Irish import Campanelle looks to be a serious contender, I’m betting my two dollars on the second-favorite (at 3/1) Elle Z, with veteran jockey Mitchell Murrill in the irons. He’s certainly someone worth backing based on his history.

This five-year-old mare finished 12 of her 18 career starts in the money, winning nine. Those nine wins include her most recent three Black Type runs: the Nelson J. Menard Memorial Stakes and the Frederick P. Aime Memorial Stakes in January, and the Mardi Gras Stakes in March.

Regularly ranked among the top 100 trainers in North America for the past 15 years, Chris A. Hartman trains Elle Z for M Bar O LLC.
Race Nine

Race nine puts us back on the dirt track for the Lexington Stakes (Grade III), a $400,000 purse, 1-1/16 miles race for three-year-olds. The Lexington Stakes is the final qualifying race on the Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby. It awards R2KD leaderboard points to the top four finishers (20-8-4-2).

There are six among this eleven-horse field that could see their future brighten considerably with a win here. Tawny Port is on the bubble: He’s #20 on the R2KD leaderboard with 40 points. Even a fourth-place finish here could solidify his claim to a starting position in the Kentucky Derby.
Even one of the three in this race that have ten points each on the R2KD leaderboard—Major General, Dash Attack and Call Me Midnight—could earn a ticket to Louisville with a win here.

Be that as it may, I’m calling this race for the second-favored In Due Time (at 3/1), ridden by ace jockey Paco Lopez.

At #29 on the R2KD leaderboard with 20 points, this chestnut colt could move into Derby territory with a win—and for my money, he’ll do it.

For the record, In Due Time moneyed all four of his career starts, winning two. He picked up his 20 R2KD points with a second-place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (Grade II) at Gulfstream Park last month.

Thirty-year horse racing veteran Kelly J. Breen trains In Due Time for owners Edge Racing, Medallion Racing, and Parkland Thoroughbreds.
Race Ten

Race ten brings us back to the turf course for the Jenny Wiley Stakes (Grade I), a $500,000 purse, 1-1/16 miles race for fillies and mares four years old and upward.
I like the 7/5 second-favored Regal Glory, piloted by Jose L. Ortiz.

This six-year-old mare moneyed 14 of her 17 career starts, winning ten, including the Matriarch Stakes (Grade I) at Del Mar last November and the Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf Invitational Stakes (Grade III) in January at Gulfstream.

Multiple Eclipse Award winner Chad C. Brown trains Regal Glory for owner Peter M. Brant. Brown also trains this race’s 6/5 morning-line favorite, Shantisara.
My Saturday Picks for Laurel Park

The horse racing betting action doesn’t have to stop at Keeneland Race Course. You should also be able to find bets for Laurel Park this weekend.
Race Six

We’ll start with race six the Weber City Miss Stakes, a $125,000 purse, 1-1/16 miles dirt track run for three-year-old fillies. This one’s my no-brainer pick of the day: 3/5 morning-line favorite Luna Belle, ridden by top jockey Denis Araujo.
This filly is the only entry in this six-horse field with any real success at the stakes level.

For the record, Luna Belle moneyed eight of her ten career starts, winning five, including her most recent four.

Those four were all Black Type stakes races here at Laurel Park: the Maryland Juvenile Fillies Championship Stakes in December, the Xtra Heat Stakes in January, the Wide Country Stakes in February, and the Beyond The Wire Stakes in March.

Co-owner Hamilton A. Smith trains Luna Belle for Deborah S. Green and himself.
Race Seven

Race seven is the Frank Y. Whiteley Stakes, a $100,000 purse, seven-furlong dirt track race for three-year-olds and upward.

I don’t see any real standouts in this eight-horse field. However, the 3/1 morning-line favorite does have a very slight statistical edge, so let’s go with that: Bet on Sir Alfred James, piloted by veteran jockey John McKee.

The six-year-old gelding finished in the money 15 of his 23 career starts, winning seven, including the Holiday Cheer Stakes (Black Type) at Turfway Park this past New Year’s Day.

Norman L. Cash trains Sir Alfred James for Built Wright Stables, LLC.
Race Eight

Race eight is the Heavenly Cause Stakes, a $1000,000 purse, one-mile dirt track race for fillies and mares three years old and upward.

I’m betting my two dollars on the third-favored (at 5/1) Pennybaker, with jockey Jevian Toledo aboard.

This Kentucky-born filly has only recently returned to the States after her establishing her career with ten starts that included five money finishes—four of those wins.

Her most recent win was the Prix Miss Satamixa (Listed) at the Hippodrome Deauville-La Touques in Deauville, France.

With more than four decades in the horse racing business, Michael Stidham trains Pennybacker for Godolphin, LLC.
Race Nine

Race nine is the Federico Tesio Stakes, a $125,000 purse, 1-1/8 miles dirt track run for three-year-olds. The winner of this race automatically receives an invitation to the 2022 Preakness Stakes (provided the horse is nominated for the Triple Crown).

I’m calling this race for the 3/1 second-favorite, Shake Em Loose, ridden by veteran jockey Charlie Marquez.
While this three-year-old gelding had a tough time graduating from the maidens, he suddenly found his special purpose, winning four of his next five starts.

Breaking his maiden in November (his sixth attempt), he went on to win the Heft Stakes (Black Type) in December, an allowance optional claiming race in February, and the Private Terms Stakes (Black Type) in March.

And notably, in the Private Terms Stakes, he forced this race’s favorite, Joe, to accept second-place by 1-3/4 lengths.

Rodolfo Sanchez-Salomon trains Shake Em Loose for J R Sanchez Racing Stable.
Saturday Horse Racing Picks for Oaklawn Park

Last, but certainly not least, are some races for Saturday at Oaklawn Park.
Race Four

We’ll start on the dirt track with race four, a 1-1/16 miles allowance optional claiming run for three-year-olds.

I just can’t convince myself the 5/2 morning-line favorite, Happy Boy Rocket, has a win in him. Instead, I’m betting on the 9/2 underdog, Presidential, with Isaac Castillo aboard.

In any other six-horse field, this colt might not be a standout, but here, Presidential takes center stage.

It’s true that Presidential has a single money finish in his four career starts. Still, he showed his superiority over the morning-line favorite in this race with a fifth-place finish in the Lecomte Stakes (Grade III) at Fair Grounds in January.

In comparison, the favorite’s single stakes run—the Tampa Bay Derby (Grade II) in March—ended with a ninth-place finish.
Okay, so neither will be posing for Wheaties-box pictures any time soon, but of the two, Presidential has the edge.

Hall of Famer Steven M. Asmussen trains Presidential for Courtlandt Farms (Donald Adam).
Race Nine

Race nine is a one-mile allowance optional claiming race for three-year-olds and upward. This race is a almost a coin-flip between Hunka Burning Love, the 3/1 morning-line favorite, and Brice, the 8/1 sleeper.

I’m going with Brice, ridden by Isaac Castillo.

This five-year-old gelding moneyed eleven of his 21 career starts, winning nine, including his most recent starter allowance here at Oaklawn. He notably finished fourth in the Philip H. Iselin Stakes (Grade III) at Monmouth Park last August.

Jerry Hollendorfer trains Brice for Hollendorfer LLC, Tri-Star Racing LLC, and George Todaro.
Race Eleven

Race eleven is the Count Fleet Sprint Handicap (Grade III), a $500,000 purse, six-furlong dirt track race for four-year-olds and upward.

I have to agree with the morning-line on this one. Buy a win ticket on the 6/5 favorite, Jackie’s Warrior, with Joel Rosario in the irons.

This four-year-old bay colt finished in the money ten of his twelve career starts, winning eight. Those wins include the Amsterdam Stakes (Grade II) and the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes (Grade I) last August at Saratoga, and the Gallant Bob Stakes (Grade II) in September at Parx Racing.

Steven M. Asmussen trains Jackie’s Warrior for owners J. Kirk Robison and Judy Robison.

While this weekend’s races are exciting, one of the biggest races of the year is coming up. Get ready for the 2022 Kentucky Derby with updated odds and analysis below.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-16-2022, 09:48 AM

Keeneland Picks: Lexington S. featured in the LP4 on April 16
By J.N. Campbell

Keeneland Picks - Saturday, April 16, 2022

Race 1: 3-4-7-1
Race 2: 11-12-8-6
Race 3: 9-3-7-5
Race 4: 7-8-10-3
Race 5: 6-4-7-2
Race 6: 2-1-6-5
Race 7: 4-6-8-5
Race 8: 6-14-3-5
Race 9: 8-9-2-11
Race 10: 4-3-6-2
Race 11: 5-4-8-2
**Most Likely: Strava #8 (Race 9)**
**Best Value: Jouster #6 (Race 8)**

LATE PICK 4 …

LEG 1: (Race 8: Turf, 5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-16-2022, 09:48 AM

Weekend GamePlan for April 16, 2022: Picks for Lexington, Giant's Causeway, and Heavenly Cause
Marcus Hersh

Unless we’re taking a time capsule back to 2014, when what is now the Pat Day Mile on Kentucky Derby Day was run as the Derby Trial the week before the Derby, Saturday, April 16, puts a lid on Kentucky Derby prep season.

The Lexington is the last points race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, and while the best horses racing Saturday at Keeneland are in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley, that race won’t make this weekend’s list of three plays. I do favor Regal Glory over Shantisara in the Jenny Wiley, only because of recency and distance, but both will be very short prices.

Love me some Jackie’s Warrior and eagerly anticipate his return as an odds-on favorite in the Count Fleet at Oaklawn, but again, no play.

Lexington

This race holds appeal because of a large field and two vulnerable favorites.

In Due Time, 3-1 on a suspect morning line, came out of a good second-place finish March 5 in the Fountain of Youth Stakes a very tired horse, according to his trainer, Kelly Breen. That’s why he’s gotten extra time and lands in the Lexington rather than the Florida Derby. The only post-Fountain of Youth workout video available is the March 25 drill, his first breeze after the race. Didn’t look to me like In Due Time worked nearly as well as he had before the Fountain of Youth.

Tawny Port, the 5-2 morning-line favorite, races here just two weeks after a hard-trying second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks. Tawny Port, who has 40 Derby qualifying points, apparently is getting a chance to burnish his dirt bona fides in the Lexington. He ran all right with some trouble in the Risen Star, his lone previous dirt start, but I’m against him.

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I wonder if We All See It had one of those “light bulb goes on” moments March 19 at Fair Grounds. His Beyer Speed Figure jumped to a robust 91 as he edged a sharp Mark Casse colt who also is on the rise. I gave We All See It strong consideration but instead will side with Call Me Midnight.

This horse is 6-1 on the line, and that would be more than fair. Granted, he got a great setup, but Call Me Midnight in the Lecomte Stakes beat none other than Epicenter, favored or close to it for the Derby. Connections skipped the Risen Star and Call Me Midnight could make no late ground rallying from last in the Louisiana Derby. I think that 1 3/16-mile race was too far for him. He had good momentum coming into the stretch and to the furlong grounds, then went flat; this 1 1/16-mile trip is a better fit. This is a tough outside draw, but I’m guessing the pace turns faster than it looks on paper, the field spreads, and Call Me Midnight gets a fair shake in the end.

Giant’s Causeway

Change of Control won this race a year ago and stands an excellent chance of repeating at a fair win price.

Her odds rise because she comes off her worst turf performance in two calendar years, but I submit that Change of Control bounced after her strong comeback run (when she was not fully fit) in the Jan. 29 Fred Aime, where Giant’s Causeway favorite Elle Z came back after being passed and nipped her. I’m also unsure just how much Change of Control likes the Fair Grounds grass course, but she has a proven fondness for Keeneland’s. Her form should be on the rise, while it’s hard to see Elle Z going anywhere but down following a demanding, powerhouse winter campaign.

Heavenly Cause

I’ve fallen hard here for French import Pennybaker. Her switch from turf to all-weather racing last summer revealed a different, better horse. Pennybaker dominated her last four starts in France, the first two from a pressing position, the last two with stalking trips and an impressive turn of foot. She breaks well enough to be an American dirt horse, and the runner-up in her most recent win, Pevensey Bay, is a good mare most recently second in the Group 2 Balanchine Stakes on Feb. 4 at Meydan. We can’t know if the all-weather form translates to dirt, but an outside draw means Pennybaker can stay clear of kickback. Her work pattern – all dirt – for a good layoff barn is encouraging, and Pennybaker’s dam is a sister to the tremendous dirt performer Frosted.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-16-2022, 09:51 AM

Rocket Picks ��: Keeneland, Gulfstream Park, and Aqueduct for April 16, 2022
By: Aaron Halterman

A great weekend of racing continues today with solid action from around the country. For the free pick 4, we will head to Oaklawn Park for the late sequence on the card. We will also have full card selections for Aqueduct and Keeneland for the paid Rockets, so be sure to check those out. Let’s go!

Below is our free Late Pick 4 for Oaklawn Park:

Oaklawn Park April 16, 2022

Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming

#5 Super Constitution should be competitive in this spot after a terrible effort last time out. That is not his usual race, while two starts back he nearly won at this level. #4 Pats Property has hit the board in three straight races similar to what he faces in this spot.

Race 10: Maiden Special Weight
freestar

#7 Life On the Nile has to rebound from a poor effort last time out; however, his race two starts back should be good enough to win this one today. #10 Chileno was a nose away from victory last time out over this track and at this distance. Today could finally be the day for him.

Race 11: Count Fleet Stakes (G3)

#5 Jackies Warrior returns for his 4-year-old debut after running incredibly well last season. He must rebound from a poor last race, though, which is the only question mark. #6 Bobs Edge has been on fire at Oaklawn Park all meet long, winning the last two stakes races at this track.

Race 12: Maiden Claiming

#1 Lous Arrow takes another drop in class today, while also getting back to 6-furlongs, which seems to be his best distance. #11 Cats Gotta Chance has been close at this level a few times at this meet but just has not been able to finish the job.

THE TICKET

$.50 Pick 4 (Races 9-12) 4,5,6,8 / 3,7,8,10 / 5 / 1,6,8,11 – $32

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-16-2022, 09:52 AM

Today's Horse Racing Tips: Saturday April 16th
Stephen Harris
bettingexpert Racing editor

Today’s Racing Tips – April 16th

There are 8 races on ITV on Saturday, with competitive turf action coming from Newbury and Musselburgh. Conditions are sure to be drying up all the time after a dry week, and there are some extremely tricky handicaps to solve for punters.

Race fitness can count for plenty at this stage of the season, and sticking with runners who are fit from the all-weather can be a profitable system.

The big betting races are likely to be at Newbury, where there are three classy Group 3’s to get studying, while the Queens Cup Handicap at Musselburgh is sure to attract some progressive stayers from the north.
Today’s Daily Nap

Bullet Force

Musselburgh 13:32pm

Karl Burke has landed running as the turf season clicks into gear, and this progressive performer is likely to be primed to make a winning reappearance at Musselburgh on Saturday.

Odds: 10.00
Today’s Value Angle

HMS President

Musselburgh 15:14pm

Eve Johnson-Houghton’s useful handicapper has slipped down the weights after struggling in soft ground on his final two runs last season, and will relish the fast ground expected here for this prestigious staying prize.

Odds: 12.00

Odds are best odds available as at1pm April 14th 2022. Odds may now differ.
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Aqueduct Picks - Saturday, April 16, 2022

Race 1: 3-1-2-4
Race 2: 3-6-2-1
Race 3: 2-9-6-1
Race 4: 1-5-3-6
Race 5: 5-8-2-7
Race 6: 7-1-9-5
Race 7: 5-1-8-4
Race 8: 9-3-7-6
Race 9: 12-8-4-7
Race 10: 7-11-2-3
**Most Likely: High Opinion #5 (Race 6)**
**Best Value: Thegoddessofsnakes #12 (Race 9)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-16-2022, 09:52 AM

Keeneland Picks - Saturday, April 16, 2022

Race 1: 3-4-7-1
Race 2: 11-12-8-6
Race 3: 9-3-7-5
Race 4: 7-8-10-3
Race 5: 6-4-7-2
Race 6: 2-1-6-5
Race 7: 4-6-8-5
Race 8: 6-14-3-5
Race 9: 8-9-2-11
Race 10: 4-3-6-2
Race 11: 5-4-8-2
**Most Likely: Strava #8 (Race 9)**
**Best Value: Jouster #8 (Race 9)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-16-2022, 09:53 AM

Oaklawn Picks - Saturday, April 16, 2022

Race 1: 6-3-2-7
Race 2: 5-7-10-3
Race 3: 1-6-8-4
Race 4: 5-2-6-3
Race 5: 5-3-8-7
Race 6: 4-6-2-5
Race 7: 2-5-7-1
Race 8: 6-4-3-9
Race 9: 1-2-8-7
Race 10: 10-2-5-8
Race 11: 6-1-5-4
Race 12: 4-6-1-9
**Most Likely: Happy Boy Rocket #5 (Race 4)**
**Best Value: Connie K #2 (Race 7)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-16-2022, 09:53 AM

Santa Anita Park Picks - Saturday, April 16, 2022

Race 1: 6-3-2-5
Race 2: 1-3-4-2
Race 3: 2-5-1-4
Race 4: 6-1-3-5
Race 5: 4-6-5-2
Race 6: 2-5-3-7
Race 7: 6-2-8-3
Race 8: 10-4-6-8
Race 9: 3-6-1-2
Race 10: 11-9-10-6
**Most Likely: Baladi #4 (Race 5)**
**Best Value: Bossy Pegasus #2 (Race 6)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-16-2022, 09:53 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

April 16, 2022 | By Al Cimaglia

Hoosier Park has a 13-race program set for tonight. The feature goes in Race 9, an Open Trot with a $22,000 purse. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 10, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 10

3-Tickle My Fancy (7/2)-Trotted a .57 back half on 4-7 to get up in time. Back in with the same kind, loses Widger but Miller can do the job. Last time the fractions were soft, now gets post relief and this race could shape up even better.
6-Racin Cream Pie (9/2)-Post draws have hurt both times since shipping in from MVR. Did race big from post 8 last time but was nipped by the one above. Might be ready for a big try in the 3rd local start and could get some revenge.

Race 11

5-Racing Forthe Mark (5/2)-Gets some needed post relief. Putnam should get a good early seat and look to come off cover down the lane.
6-Hilary Barry N (3-1)-Put in a needed race last week. Looking for a more aggressive steer in the 2nd start since 2-20 and isn't out of place in this field.
7-It's Time For Fun (8-1)-Team Wilfong entry makes its 3rd start since shipping in from Hawthorne. Should be better here for a few reasons and isn't saddled with a 2nd tier start. Has hit the board in 29 of 58 starts at HoP and is worth a swing at a price.

Race 12

2-Ima Diamond Babe (3-1)-Was used off the gate at 6/5 in last and faded down the lane. Form has been dull this year but this is soft spot and will look for a big try. The price should be a lot better this time and will shoot against the program chalk (6) who tries Lasix for the 1st time.
5-Imalovelylady (7/2)-Leonard entry has finished 2nd in both starts this meet and usually works on a smaller oval. Those 2 efforts were very good, and the winners are not in this field. This barn keeps rolling batting 30% in the past 30 days.

Race 13

6-Moneymakehersmile (7/5)-Came back to town and made short work of this kind last week. Drew off by almost 5 lengths at 1/2. Won't offer a much of a price this time either but looks a decent trip away from another picture.

0.50 Pick 4

3,6/5,6,7/2,5/6
Total Bet=$6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-16-2022, 09:53 AM

AI Picks: Lexington & Tesio | Sat., April 16, 2022

April 16, 2022 | By 1/ST BET

Potential Kentucky Derby and/or Preakness springboards are being held Saturday at Laurel Park in the Federico Tesio and Keeneland in the Lexington Stakes. To assist your handicapping, top selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.

You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app. We’ve included the official track morning line odds with each runner.

Laurel Park // Race 9 // 5:02 pm ET // $125,000 Federico Tesio Stakes // 1-1/8 miles

#7 Smarten Up (9-2) // 27%W
#2 Shake Em Loose (3-1) // 18%W
#4 Joe (5-2) // 14%W
#1 Vine Jet (6-1) // 10%W

Keeneland // Race 9 // 5:16 pm ET // $400,000 Grade 3 Lexington Stakes // 1-1/16 miles

#10 Dash Attack (10-1) // 25%W
#4 Ethereal Road (10-1) // 21%W
#9 Tawny Port (5-2) // 17%W
#2 In Due Time (3-1) // 9%W

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-16-2022, 09:54 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 4/16/22

April 16, 2022

“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.

The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.

Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 2-Fore Flag; 3-Just About Enough; 5-Cool Acclaim

Forecast: The Saturday opener is an inscrutable California-bred maiden race over nine furlongs on grass. Most of these have been thoroughly exposed, so anything goes. Fore Flag is a one-paced grinder with seven previous outings and speed figures that are, well, what they are. He does strike us as a gelding that will appreciate this nine furlong trip, so by process of elimination he gets top billing at 4-1 on the morning line. Additionally, he gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy D. Herrera, and that may make the winning difference. Just About Enough, in the money in three of his last four outings, might appreciate patient tactics and given that type of trip he should fire his best shot. On pure numbers, he’s a major player but he’s also an eight-race maiden. Cool Action was extremely rank early and then faded out of the picture when well-beaten in a similar affair last month. His best chance is to inherit the role as the controlling speed, and if such a trip materializes he could get brave and be tough to catch. Tread lightly here.

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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 1-Elector; 2-McLaren Vale

Forecast: The two main players in this first-level allowance extended sprint are drawn inside, with big figure maiden winner Elector and the first-time Lasix user McLaren Vale certain to get the bulk of the play. Elector (TOC=6-1; ML=8/5) stumbled badly at the start and was eliminated when well-meant in his debut but then showed his true from with a fast, highly-rated, and thoroughly convincing maiden victory in a race that produced next out wins from the second and third place finishers. In a race that projects to have soft early fractions, the son of Constitution should be quick enough to preserve the rail as the controlling speed and then be tough catch from there. McLaren Vale (TOC=6/5; ML=9/5) , a respectable third in the San Vicente S.-G2 after a moderate maiden debut win earlier this meeting, returns off a 10 week vacation and clearly is the one to fear most. Now in the S. McCarthy barn after being transferred from the B. Baffert stable, the son of Gun Runner should secure a stalking position and then have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. Both should be included in rolling exotic play, with the main punch going to Elector.

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RACE 3: Post: 2:04 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 2-Lookin So Lucky; 1-Song of Fire

Forecast: We’ll double the third race, a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming turf miler for fillies and mares. Lookin So Lucky (TOC=9/2; ML=4/2) has a prior win over the local lawn and speed figures that are good enough to win at this level. The class drop to her lowest level ever is warranted based on her recent form and against this group the daughter of Lookin At Lucky appears to have found her friends. Song of Fire (TOC=6/5; ML=3-1), a first-off-the-claim for low profile trainer S. Morfin (good stats with this angle), lands the rail and might find herself as the controlling speed if she’s aggressively handled leaving the gate. She was disappointing as the favorite when fading to fourth after pressing the pace but seems capable of rebounding if given her preferred trip. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with a slight preference on top to Lookin So Lucky.

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RACE 4: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference: 4-Houndstooth; 6-Happy Runner

Forecast: Houndstooth has much going for him in this maiden $62,500 sprint for older horses. The five-year-old with just two prior starts produced a significant forward move when fourth in a much stronger straight maiden sprint last time out, and with the addition of blinkers, the son of Uncle Mo is the likely controlling speed. Also, the figure he earned last time out far exceeds par for this level, and with the addition of Lasix the R. Mandella-trained gelding seems set to graduate. Happy Runner can be used as a back-up or a saver on a ticket or two. He shows the route-to-sprint angle, lands the cozy outside post, and projects to inherit a soft stalking position. He’ll need to produce a forward move to beat our top pick, though.

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RACE 5: Post: 3:09 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 1-Doitforandrew; 3-Barsabas

Forecast: Doitforandrew (TOC=5-1; ML=7/2) has been victimized by a pair of rough trips in his first two U.S. outings but he continues to very impressive in the a.m. so we’re going to give the P. D’Amato-trained import one more chance in this first-level allowance turf miler restricted to 3-year-olds. The English-bred gelding is assured a ground-saving trip from his rail post and seems likely to display improved tactical speed in a race that projects to have easy early fractions. At 7/2 on the morning line, the son of Ribchester offers a reasonable gamble. Barsabas (TOC=Evens; ML=5/2) pressed the pace before weakening late when fifth in the Pasadena S. over this course and distance in mid-February. Freshened and showing just three workouts in the two month interim, the son of Tale of the Cat may have a condition question but off his best race he’s right there with these. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with Doitforandrew getting strong preference on top.

Notable Workouts:

Doitforandrew (April 1, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.2h TT). Grade: A-
Full of run through the lane in solo training track drill, final quarter mile in :22.4, never asked, sharp as a tack. Hasn’t shown his best yet in the p.m. but with a trouble-free trip next time he should produce a significant amount of improvement.
View Workout Video

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RACE 6: Post: 3:40 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 3-Sweet California 10-Alex’s Girl

Forecast: California Girl has burned money as the favorite in her last two starts, most recently finishing off the board as the even money favorite in a similar maiden $50,000 claiming sprint here last month. However, with blinkers being added and at this shortened this five and one-half furlong distance, the daughter of Danzing Candy deserves one more chance. Among the newcomers, the D. Hofmans-trained Alex’s Girl looks intriguing. Bred for speed on both sides of her pedigree (Idiot Proof x Tribal Rule) and training a bit better than the workout times might indicate, she certainly won’t have to be a world beater to act at this level, so at 6-1 on the morning line we’ll include her in rolling exotic play.

Notable Workouts:

Alex’s Girl (March 16, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.4h). Grade: B-
Breezing early and looking okay late, as maiden-claiming type was much best over Justin’s Lady (5f, 1:03.4h), splits of :24.4, :36.2 and 1:03 flat on our watches. Obviously no world beater but seems like a trier and should be competitive with soft foes.
View Workout Video

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RACE 7: Post: 4:11 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 2-Irish Heatwave; 1-Fly the Sky; 6-Liberal

Forecast: Five of the nine entrants in this starter’s allowance ($25,000) nine furlong grass grab bag exit the same March 19 race. A similar blanket finish can be expected today, especially in a race that projects to have easy early fractions. Irish Heatwave (TOC=3-1; ML=3-1), a close third in the aforementioned race won by Liberal, is drawn nicely inside and could find himself in a favorable pace-pressing/forcing position if allowed to utilize his tactical speed. He’s a former stakes winner who has won gate-to-wire in the past, so we suggest his connections strongly consider employing that strategy. Fly the Sky (TOC=9/2; ML=4-1) can parlay his rail draw into a ground-saving trip, and with a repeat of his race-before-last the son of Boisterous will have a legitimate chance to regain his winning form. He’s a three-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course and a perfect one-for-one over at this nine furlong distance. Liberal (TOC=7/2; ML=7/2) managed to win that March 19 cavalry charge with a strong late kick, and although he’s picking up two lbs. off that win the veteran Irish-bred gelding could be capable of winning right back with good racing luck. The concern is that he’s winless in five starts (with just one third place finish) at this nine furlong distance.

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RACE 8: Post: 4:42 PT Grade: C
Use (in order of preference): 10-Smoothlikebuttah; 8-Smilin Evie; 4-Respectfully

Forecast: This California-bred first-level allowance sprint for fillies and mares has many possibilities but nothing to trust, so best advice is to spread as deeply as your budget allows. Smoothlikebuttah (TOC=8/5; ML=5-1) has solid recent form and removes blinkers (like that angle) but she is 1-for-26 during her career with 13 seconds and thirds. Obviously, she’s suspect under pressure in the final furlong but with clear sailing outside she just might fall into a win. Smilin’ Evie (TOC=5-1; ML=6-1) sports the always-dangerous route to sprint angle, and while she’s slower on speed figures than we’d prefer her to be, the R. Baltas-trained filly is lightly-raced with plenty of room to improve. A recent bullet five furlong training track drill (1:00h, fastest of eight) catches the eye. Respectfully (TOC=5-1; ML=10-1) has run quite well over this main track in the past, and although she was beaten at even money in a mixed breed affair at Los Alamitos two weeks ago the daughter of Smiling Tiger has races that put her squarely in the fray at this level. At 10-1 on the morning line, she’s worth tossing in.

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RACE 9: Post: 5:13 PT Grade:
Use (in order of preference): 3-Cash Equity; 4-Hong Kong Harry; 7-Comradery

Forecast: Trainer P. D’Amato has two major contenders in this second-level allowance turf miler, with recent U.S. debut winner Hong Kong Harry (TOC=7/2; ML=2-1) and multiple French stakes-placed import Cash Equity (TOC=7/2; ML=5/2) having the credentials to win. ‘Harry had little behind him when scoring at 50 cents on the dollar last month in a softer spot but did it stylishly and should be quite competitive right back despite the class hike. However, on pure form, Cash Equity is the better of the two and actually appeared slightly best in a team drill (see below) just six days ago. The son of Toronado shows a work tab that should have him plenty fit, so as a first-time Lasix user with a history running well fresh he’ll get the edge on top. Also worth including on your ticket is Comradery (TOC=3-1; ML=10-1), making his third start off a layoff and likely to produce another forward move. A two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course, the J. Sadler-trained horse should be doing his best work from off the pace and with help up front seems likely to outrun his 10-1 morning line odds. The analytics give him a real good look.

Notable Workouts:

Cash Equity (April 10, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h TT). Grade: B+
Broke off a length in front of Hong Kong Harry (5f, 1:00h TT) and held that one at bay through the lane, finishing about a neck in front with neither really being asked at any stage, splits of :24.2 and :59.4 on our watches, very sharp drill. French invader was a stakes-quality performer overseas and has been given a sufficient foundation to be fit for a major effort in his U.S. debut. Workmate went well, too, but was about a neck back at the wire and the same galloping out.
View Workout Video

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RACE 10: Post: 5:44 PT Grade: B+
Use (In order of preference): 10-Hero Status; 3-Special Ride

Forecast: Hero Status, a $270,000 2021 OBS March sale purchase, finally makes it to the races more than a year later and has trained like he’s ready to verify the promise he displayed when he smoked a quarter of a mile during the preview session in :21 flat. Recent workouts have been equally impressive, so with a clean break and a clear trip from his outside draw this M. Glatt-trained son of Flatter should be hard to beat at first asking. Additionally, the barn has strong stats with the first-time starter angle (19% with a powerful ROI). Special Ride may have been best when finishing second in a $150,000 claimer in his debut last month. The son of Candy Ride found his best stride too late when rallying to miss by a neck and today he’ll get an extra half furlong to work with. This straight maiden field is tougher but the speed figure he earned in his first start is close to today’s par, so he should fit nicely.

Notable Workouts:

Hero Status (April 10, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1hg). Grade: B+
Solo gate work for M. Glatt, splits of :24.1, :36.1, :47.1 and 1:00.1 before easing up to the wire in 1:13.3, extremely sharp while preparing for debut. Looks the part of a quality colt and appears plenty fit and ready.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-16-2022, 09:54 AM

Brian W. Spencer Daily Picks

Keeneland - Race #8
Picks Notes
#6 Jouster She has some route pace cutting back in a spot where there is some wide-drawn pace that might heat things up on the front end. Not totally sold she’s going to be good at passing horses, but the price might be right to see if she likes this kind of trip.
#3 Campanelle She can be a bit closer in the early going than she was when last seen here in October, but I worry she’s overbet in a race she certainly doesn’t have to win.
#8 Hear My Prayer Forward player has a mild rating gear, and that may leave her in a perfect spot for a first-over trip into the lane. Fans will get a better price than they have in most of her recent starts.
Race Summary You get a really appealing 48 Betmix Longshot Score in this race, the kind of rating that piques my interest in price shopping. Jouster is a tricky read at this kind of trip given her past running lines, but the race flow might work in her favor, and she has the talent to compete here if this type of dash suits her. -- Brian W. Spencer

Keeneland - Race #9
Picks Notes
#2 In Due Time He has shown some promise and doesn’t meet a particularly deep crew here. He has some positional pace that should leave him in a great spot – something like his baseline probably does the trick today.
#7 Major General Grade III winner was never a factor in the Tampa Bay Derby when racing off the bench last month, and it’s pretty easy to expect a better effort than that today. The question will be whether the price accurately factors in the massive bounce back needed.
#9 Tawny Port His only try on dirt was the worst of his career when trying Grade II company in New Orleans, and even though he’s a better fit here, I wouldn’t want too short a price to land here.
Race Summary In Due Time won’t be a big number in here, but he should be a handful after a good effort at Gulfstream last time out. His versatility gives his rider some options out of the gate, and he doesn’t really need to come forward much to land this. -- Brian W. Spencer

Keeneland - Race #10
Picks Notes
#4 Regal Glory The big question here seems to be which Chad Brown runner is going to land it, and this mare gets the edge. She has been in with some tough groups in her recent scores, and I’ll lean on her class with elders over her stablemate.
#3 Shantisara She has not done much wrong since showing up in the States, and she rolled eight others in the QE II over this footing last fall. She’ll get a tougher test with some talented older horses, but she’s an obvious player who might be fun to watch this season.
#2 Waliyak She looks like the main threat to keep Brown out of the winner circle, as she ran a decent enough race when tracking the pace in Grade I company at Woodbine last year. She might be capable of something a little bit better?
Race Summary Regal Glory and Shantisara should be tough to get around in this one, but the former has a bit more class to call on in here, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see these two settle the score at short prices. -- Brian W. Spencer

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-16-2022, 09:56 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Northfield Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#2 HIGH FASHION MEL Chased faves, stayed on rail, game third on drop to this level.
#1 DA VINCI ARTIST Advanced wide on turn while top one was pinned in, moves inside.
#3 LIVE AND LET DI Third in longshot race dominated by closers, gets driver upgrade.
Race Summary High Fashion Mel, trapped behind the favorites in third much of the way, finished willingly on the rail to just miss second. She’s 3-41 the last two years and changes drivers for the fifth consecutive start, but she still can beat this field. Bet to win and place.

Northfield Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#1 HILLBILLYFAIRYTALE Trailed behind stalled outer flow, rallied 6-wide in lane, gets Merriman.
#4 HIP HOP STAR Overmatched against better, class drop should serve him well.
#3 WILLZY View for lead in race against top one but made nasty break.
Race Summary Hillbillyfairytale, four-deep in a slow moving outer flow, gained some while 6-wide in the stretch. The move from post 8 to the rail could make all the difference. Play 1-3, 1-4 and 4-1 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #10
Picks Notes
#4 CHAMPAGNE PHIL Speed mission came up short, goes well in here.
#2 LETS GET PICKLED Sandwiched two wins around a troubled fourth.
#7 BRAVE WORLD Chased ‘Pickled’ around the track as the favorite.
Race Summary Champagne Phil rallied from post 8 two starts back, then changed tactics and set a solid pace last week before the pocket-sitting favorite and others passed by. The 52-time winner appears rounding to a good race at age 12. Bet to win and place.